₦airaland Forum

Yeyer/Zpixel,

Wow.. seems one or both of you are now into Options. Yeyer really impressed seem your option is paying of right, please throw more light.

YerYer:
Following Amazon, it keeps making all time highs like every day now. I've been in the name since $460 or so, made some nice profit then sold it. Bought back around $694 and I'm now up 20%. It's a money maker but the PE ratio is really high, however it is a true growth stock that doesn't rest on its laurels. It's stealing massive market share from other retailers and also diversifying in to other sectors. I like the name.

My dear friend, forget about PE ration.. Go back and see Cisco system when it shot off (3000%), the PE ration was as high as anything. The company is making sales, investing in new products, increasing earning per share. You cannot beat that trust me on that... same goes with FB. It will be slow, but will continue to rise till they have nothing new to offer as in new product. That is the issue apple is having now, nothing new.

ahmg001:
if Dubai is dt bad,y u neva com bk to naija

I have read this tread and you have spoken... this is an advice directly from someone who lives in Dubai. Take your law training and the sky is your limit, take the factory work and the roof of the factory is yours. The implication of your decision will be felt in 10 years.

When you get yourself educated, doors will open when you least expect it. You can take up a factory work anytime in any country but you cannot take up your law proffession so easily. Know what, you might not practice law at the end of the day but your experience and knowledge will be with you for a life time.

My dear friend studied law in Nigeria, went to law schools in Nigeria and studied law in the UK as well. Will all those qualification he did not practice law, he works a ITIL practitioner ( information technology library). All companies value his law skills because he writes like a lawyer, even his boss calls him to review emails before he sends them out.

Now he earns 500 pounds a day, yes 9000 pounds a month. so the decision is yours.

kentoto:
Thanks bro , for the advice,

ultimatly i would be having a portfolio of mixed stocks, its just that am attracted to the volatility of the pennnies... however, i will look into trading one or two stocks from your watchlist tomorow to see how it goes.

k

You are welcom, also note that we are all learning and no one knows it all. Does anyone use trailing stops as risk management strategy, I would be interested how..

@Kentoto

Please note and be very careful of trading penny shares (share <10 dollars). It is not the number of shares that you have that matters, it is the percentage increase in price. so you do not have to trade 5dollar shares because you have 1400 dollars. What moves the market price of a stock is the purchase by fund managers and not individual investors. Fund managers buy Stock that above 50 dollars in price, that way they can buy many stocks without moving the price significantly.

If you continue to trade stocks that are five dollars in price, you stand the chance of not hitting the home run or you are buying Stock that are not doing well. If a stock is good, even at the point of IP0 you will not find it at five dollars, take facebook as an example as it open at 18 dollars.

So, my work of advice is to buy 20 units at 50 dollars it and get 20% gain rather than buying 200 at 5 Dollar each and making 20% gain. In either case, you are making the same profit but you are likely to fill and you position quicker with 50 units than 200 units.

kentoto:
,

ok, so are you recommending a broker for traders based in Nigeria?

i use active web platform to reduce my costs.


regards

Can you be specific on the commission charged.

In addition, please see a list of stocks with possible breakout this week. let me know if anyone is following the stocks

YerYer:
Yeah I try to hold on to names I believe in longer, other more speculative names I get rid of after a nice pop. Options seems a bit risky but boy the rewards can be gratifying when it goes your way. I only buy spreads and never na.ked puts. Been testing different strategies with the paper account but finally traded with my live account. I know I have a lot to learn in regards to technical analysis and I will learn as I go. Can you shed some light as to why you gave up option trading?

Wow Weibo (WB) looks like a good name to get into. I've always wanted to own Chinese stocks since the Alibaba (BABA) Ipo which is literally the time I actually became interested in stocks because I truly believed in the company's global presence. However, I was shocked to see the stock get slammed few weeks post Ipo. Then there is baidu (BIDU) which is supposedly the Google of China. I kid you not, all Google products don't work in China, I know from first hand experience and it's frustrating. Majority of all searches go through Baidu. Again I loved the name as of last year and kept hoping it would come down to a suitable entry spot but it never did. Then all of a sudden the stock took a beating along with many other chinese tech stocks. Chinese companies are plagued with shady accounting, so you never really know whether to believe their quarterly earnings or not and that's why i've kinda been on the fence. But i believe in their long term prospective and I strongly believe most of them have the potential to gobble up their American rivals in due time. Might take a small position in WB soon though.

You are 100% on spot with Chinese stocks, one need to keep a watchful eye.

Question - How do you mitgate your risk, do you use stop loss or trailing stops. I have just started using trailing stops and it has been really good. It takes sentiments off my trade.

Regarding options, I used it in my early days and don't really know much about it. I just couldn't get the timing right.

YerYer:
Haven't really been following the market closely but i've been dabbing in options trading. So news came out yesterday that many big tech companies are interested in buying twitter ex Google, Microsoft, Salesforce and Disney. I still think twitter has some value and i'm willing to bet my last 10 naira google will win this bidding war, perhaps that's why it's up 1% today and I'm up 16%. Facebook aren't interested at all and i'm glad to see my holdings didn't take a beating from the news. I'm up 25%, does facebook have more legroom to go higher?

@YerYer,

I ventured into options during my early days of trade and it is good if you understand the technicalities. Please note that options expires so fundamentals is not good enough. Your timing must be spot on, hence the need to have a good technical analysis and the understanding of volatility. I have not touched option for over 4 years now as i need to concentrate on buy and hold.

Really happy for you to have 25% gain in a position, it takes nerves to hold the market for that long. As you trade household names, you stand a good change of walking away with profit but not exponential. Trust me, 25% profit is not joke so i give it to you.

Regarding facebook (FB), yes this stock has ways to go but has been in consolidation/ weak position fo the last 10weeks. This is typical of any stock so I am not supprised. Right now i am trying out new strategy with trailing stops, this will enable me enter a position and place my stops at 10% behind my entry price. let us see how it goes and will share it with the house later.

Yesterday i entered a new position (WB) this is an IPO and it is the face book of china.

Guys,

So glad to hear that someone eventually opened an account for trading. Can you please put us through the procedure for doing this please ? I Plan to set up the same account for Friends in Nigeria having similar problem with TD Ameritrade. I might also use the platform for analysis in conjuction with TD Ameritrade.

So please share with the house.

Hi All,
For the followers of FB, the stock declared a good earning yesterday and broke out. Facebook is now in a good buy point for interested investor.

THE MARKET 28/08/2016

Dear all,

Sorry I have not been able to post an update for a while as I have been on holiday and still have a week to go. As we approach the end of the month and the close of the holiday season, it is ideal to show the status of the market as we expect volume to increase as people return from holiday. Note, the volume could increase on either the up or the down depending on investors sentiment.

As of today, the market direction is under pressure (Meaning the uptrend is slowing and tending towards a pull back). In reality, this are mixed signals hence the reasons to watch more closely. How can be market be pulling back and hitting a new high at the same time. I would take this as a short purse in the uptrend, and also remember that the school season is about to start next month, so people will be taking profit in order to pay school fees right after the holiday season. As long as we have not crossed the grey line on any of the market indicators, I would say we are good to hold on.

Please note, keep a look out for our stock to see if it is behaving abnormally, reframe from taking a new position until the uptrend resumes and keep a good lookout for stocks in position and ready to jump once all market conditions for a new buy are true again.
In my next post, I will show the list of stocks ( with good fundamental) setting up for a new move.

In my next post, I will show the list of stocks ( with good fundamental) setting up for a new move.

ifeykay:
Am sure you must be smiling with your position in AMBA. Yesterday it closed at 66

Trust me AMBA has been really good. Waiting for earning report on the first week in september after which I intend to load more. Been busy with the family on holiday in the UK so there has not been time to catch up on this. Will get back to full time reporting once holiday is over. Please bear with me.

Little comments here and there though.

zPixel:
I don't even need to fund it. I'm just too comfortable with their charting tools Anyway, you can check out suretrader or sharktraders.com (it's a prop firm...)

Really you do not need to use TD Ameritrade if they have issues with Nigeria, but I believe you should be able to set up the platform and use it without funding it. You should have access to all the tools in a Dummy environment. once you do that, then set up another platform suggested by others for real trading. Do your analysis on TD if you are comfortable with it, then trade on the other platforms.

kentoto:
Please forget think or swim from TD ameritrade. I used to have an account 8 years ago, reactivated and tried funding it. They returned the funds last week saying they don't do business with Nigerians.

Looking for another broker now.

Guys, rather unfortunate, that is what we get when some Nigerians feel the only way you could make money is via 419. We all tend to suffer for it at the end of the day.

Sorry its holiday season, have been busy with the family hence less updates.

Wow,

PAYC

Delivered today remember when I spotted this stock a while ago , see the graph below. I knew it was a strong signal hence the reason I circled it. If finally delivered today at a very high volume.
I entered the trade today when it was 2.7% up and now it is at over 7%. That Is what I call a good trade.

CDK

Another Good Buy today breaking out on 485% volume

Description
CDK Global, Inc. is a provider of integrated information technology and digital marketing/advertising solutions to the automotive retail industry. The Company's segments are Automotive Retail North America (ARNA), Automotive Retail International (ARI) and Digital Marketing (DM). The Company's solutions automate workflow processes from pre-sale targeted advertising and marketing campaigns to the sale, financing, insurance, parts supply, and repair and maintenance of vehicles. Its automotive retail solutions offer technology that helps supply side of the retail value chain. It offers digital marketing solutions to enable its clients to create demand for their products by designing and managing complete digital marketing and advertising strategies for their businesses. The Company, through its DM segment, provides a suite of digital marketing solutions for original equipment manufacturers and automotive retailers, including Websites and management of their digital advertising spend.

PAYC

Just entered the trade

Paycom Software, Inc. Reports Record Second Quarter 2016 Revenue Growth
Record Second Quarter Revenue of $73.9 million, up 51% from comparable prior year period

Record Second Quarter GAAP Net Income of $10.4 million, up 75% from comparable prior year period, or $0.18 per diluted share

Record Second Quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $22.6 million, up 72% from comparable prior year period

Record Second Quarter non-GAAP Net Income of $12.4 million, or $0.21 per diluted share

PAYC,

I noticed a 3500% increase in trading volume for PAYC today, not sure if this is related to earnings as I am not in the position to check it. The stock is 2.5% up now and if it holds I might enter it today. Please check earning and be sure we are not close to earning announcement.

ifeykay:
Hi Jideams, Kudos for the conversation on this thread.
Please what stocks are you looking at this week?

The Market seem to be drifting sideways and there has not been a momentum so far. Still on the look out, I will identify some new positions this weekend and show my entry price. Although i bought AMBA, don't think it was a good idea as i did it in a rush. We do not have to be in the Market all the time, staying in cash is also a postion.

The graphs below showed my positions closed (XRS, LGIH) this week for the following reasons.

XRS

The earning for XRS was released this week and the stock missed expectation by 0.6%, there was not significant change in price on that day but the price kept dropping gradually on the following day. By Friday, the volume traded had increased and the last candle showed a selling pressure moving into next week. Due to this, the position was closed on Friday and the close of trade.

Note, the price could rise on Monday, but the decision to sell has been based on the high volume of sell and the nature of the last candle on Friday showing a negative patter.

Let’s see what happens the following week.

The Market 31 July 2016

The Market continue to show a bullish tendency in the last five weeks of trade. You will notice that we have been in a new high ground for the last 3 weeks and the volume bars has been green for the last 5weeks. There are similarities in the performance of all the Indexes, but we await the Nasdaq to hit a new high.

Please pay a very close attention to the volume, the first bar was of the highest volume and the volume has decreased after wards. You will also notice there has not been any significant changes in the volume index. The market always take a breather after a significant movement, this might not look significant, but remember we are talking about an index and not a stock. The fact that we have not seen any Red bar in the last five weeks tell me we are in a good standing moving forward.

August is a full holiday and we are also well into the earning season. Earning season is very unpredictable, so far the process of learning how to trade earning season has not been perfected so I trade earning by a simple rule.

1. Sell 75% of my position in the stock.
2. On the day of release, Place a buy order 5% above the previous day’s closing price.
3. Set stop-loss 5% below my buy price.

The implications are as follows

1. Buy selling 75% I have protected my gains against surdden drop in price on the release.
2. Buy placing my buy at 5% above the previous day’s close. It means the earnings was good and the market was ready to move the stock forward, I will get in early and loose five percent of the initial price gain. This is not a big deal.
3. Setting stop loss at 5% means the stock will sell off if the initial gain was reversed without being seriously dragged down.

Dummy Positions.

Please find attached the position of my Dummy trade. This trade following the same trading process as a live trade using paper Money. The plan is to track this positions till I have enough money to buy them, or buy them once i sell off one of my Life trade due to signs of weakness.

Live positions week Ending 22 July 2016

Comments soon.
10975

The Market week ending 22/July/2016

As usual, the Market direction continue to show a Bullish trend, with two major indexes on a new high. Note, a change in direction of any of the Major indexes will signal the possible reversal of the market. More often than not, people tend to rely on the media discussion on the direction of the Market to take a defensive move. We need to be able to read between the lines before the Media start speculating and every start selling off.

To be head of other trader and not the market, you much have and appreciate the understanding of technical analysis and make decisions off this. Yes, we might get it wrong at times ( sell off too early) but I will rather sell and be in money than get salvaged by the market.

For this week, Market remains intact although volume was low as expected. This is the beginning of the holiday season so trading volume will be lower.
I will continue with the analysis of our existing position XRS and LGIH in the update below.

No Market Runs in isolation

If you are interested in trading the United states stock market, Join us on this Thread
https://www.nairaland.com/2460429/us-stock-market-even-playing.

The Market is Bullish now

The Market.

Ideally I do this on weekends, but just checking Midweek to confirm we are Bullish. YES we are... its safe to make new buys.

VOLUME

The importance of volume in a trade is very important and cannot be overemphasised, you need to pay attention to the total average volume of trade a day and the spike in volume each day or better still at the end of the week.
Rules.

Ensure you trade stocks with an average trading daily volume of not less than 500k. The higher the volume of stocks traded, the lesser the volatility and the easier it is to hold the stock for a long time. Price movement in stocks is due to institutional traders buying stock and not investors like myself. Institutional investors trade in high volumes, and they do it over a period of time in order to get a reasonable position in the stock. This is quietly done over time before other investors catch wind of the stock.

The ideal is to capitalise on the buying season of the institutional traders and buy at the same time. Please avoid stocks less than 20 dollars in price, and with volume less than 500k. IT is not the amount of stock we hold that matters but the % increase in price. I will rather buy 4 stocks for 1000 than buy 500 stock at 2 dollar each.

Dummy Trade BSFT

ifeykay:
Looking at the chart and your buy target of 45.01, It seems you are rather buying the resistance than support or near support. Any reason for that?

Really depends on trading strategy. In reality, I do not buy resistance, when i trade I enter my trade when a stock in making a new high (entering new grounds) in the last 52 weeks. The buy price is always above the highest price in the last 52 weeks. Actually I set my buy price at 0.5% above the previous day's close entering into a new high. When i trade support, I do that when am already in a trade and buy additional position when the stock bounces of 10 or 20 day moving average.

I hardly enter a new trade at support level. As I said, it depends on what you tested and works for you.

Have a look at XRS below, I hold this position in real money, on a good day, the stock touched my 20 days moving average and the middle of the bolinger band. At this point i bounced, which is a good sign, but I could not add to the position as the company releases result next week and it can be volatile.

This stock is already up 31% so if the result is unfavourable, it might drop 15% and i will sell. The plan is not to add to the position but to set my entry level at 5% above the previous day's closing price on that day. If the result is acceptable, the stock will bounce up around 10% and i should be able to capture 5% of it. If it drops, i will kill the trade at 10% loss and walk away with 20% profit.

In short, we must know what we will do at any time before the trade, this keeps us in control and removed emotion from trading.

Dummy Trade

BSFT

This trade executed yesterday while I was away and got me into the position as expected. Waiting for two other trades to execute before the end of the week.

See the graph below and the opening position. Profit now at 165 Dollars and two positions waiting to execute.

ifeykay:
I just stumbled into this thread and have seen great value in it. Thanks everyone. I recently opened an account with Ameritrade, but still struggling learning the software. Am really interested on trading the breakouts. A few of my settings on pops them up when the deal is done already. Whats your though on setting up trade based on breakout? Great job @jodeams

Setting up trades based on breakouts is quite easy and straight forward. It I one of the best way to trade if you are a swing trader as it takes emotions out of your trading. You define your entry price and your stop loss a day before the market opens.

Yesterday I did set up four breakout trade for today on a dummy trade to test my strategy. I do not expect all four to be executed today but they will be executed before the end of the week all things been equal.

These are my breakout conditions

Buy stock XYZ if the price rise above 0.50% above yesterday's closing price.
Do not by XYZ if the price rises more than 1.5% above yesterday's closing, but by it if the price drops between .05 and 1.5%.
After Buying XYZ, if for any reason they price drops 10% below my buy price, sell all stocks, no questions asked.
After Buyiin XYZ if price rises above 20% in the same week for any reason, sell all and hold my profit.

that is what you see in all the trades i have set above.

Let us see what happens at the end of the week.