Jideams's Posts
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Jideams:Please see below, I do the analysis of the Us stock market on Nairaland for anyone interested in trading US market on this link, but i need a good platform to carry out analysis of Nigerian stock exchange market as shown below. https://www.nairaland.com/2460429/us-stock-market-even-playing/7
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Hi Guys, Does anyone know a good platform where I could trade nigeiran stocks or analyse the stocks before buy or sell. It is not good enough to know the volume today but to see a trend over a period of time. It seems you guys have been trading for a while so I need your suggestion on which broker has a good platform with good stock feeds for trading Nigerian market. |
Market/Stock_Relationship. The graph below show the correlation between the general market S&P 500 and the underlying stocks XRS in this case. After a thorough and convincing fundamental analysis of XRS, I have decided to do a technical analysis and compare it to the spy on a week by week performance. Although there are times when the stock’s performance was outside of the market, 75% of the time the movement was in sync with the market. This shows you the power of technical analysis as the most appropriate timing factor to enter or exit a trade. The choice of the stock would have been on fundamental analysis, the timing is down to technical. In addition to this, your trading must be in line with the market. Strong stocks (good fundamentals) will do everything to go up in price, but the advancement is also dependent on the general market as shown below. You might have a variation of one week and not more. So if you look closely during your technical analysis, you will see when to reduce your risk and get ready for any eventuality. 10242
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Dummy Trade Buy BSFT
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Market Review - Week Ending 15/07/2016 Good day everyone, Attached is the performance of all the indexes close of business 15/08/2016. Obviously you can see that all the markets are in a new high at the exception of Nasdaq (the tech stock). While taking a look as the performance over time, I noticed we had been in a sideways to downwards movement since January 2015. This is not a correction, but period of uncertainty and low investors sentiment. What does this mean? As you know 75% of stocks following the market, so what we want to do is find stocks with good fundamentals and buy them at a good technical point when the general market is up and strong. The Big questions are What do we buy? When do we buy? How long do we hold on? When do we sell? How much do we buy? Where do we set our stop loss? Where do we take our profits? Buying stock is one side of the story, once you buy without emotion, you are now in the trade and need to make decision of either to hold on or sell. Due to this, I have decided to start up a dummy session anytime I see a good trade. This would be traded as I do trade my normal stocks, and add to my position as the stock progresses in uptrend. This trading will be carried out using a dummy platform with an account of 100k dollars. Each stock will be traded at 10K each and will hold not more than 10 stocks at a time. Let us see how far we can go till the end of the year. USCR in the article above this has been set up for a new trade next week. Having set this up, I do not have to be there personally to initiate the trade. The condition for trade has been set and once the conditions are met, all the trades will be executed. This takes emotion out of my trade. As we progress new positons will be taken and trade will be closed at Target profit level unless we see room for further profit.
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Next Buy USCR
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TPAND:Don't be narrow minded, this is the way forward in corporate organisations. People only fly only when it is absolutely necessary. Have you had of reducing carbon foot print ? |
AgoraRoad:I just ran through the stock and yes it has almost doubled in price, but I cannot see the reason why you bought the stock, maybe you could explain. The price has been dropping since 2012, the company is not in profit, 3 years growth is -49%, the company is valued at 102 million dollars. Not sure what the criteria you are looking at to buy your stock but this would never had made my shortlist in any way. This is the way I see trading, my plan is to perfect my trading such that I would gradually leave my day job and be sure of a return of 5000 dollars a month living in Nigeria trading the US Market. In order to get to that position, I must have a logical, tested confirmed approach, turning out 60% success rate month in Month out. This has to be clearly defined on paper and tried over and over again. You do not want a situation whereby your performance is based on Luck. Luck or wishful thinking does not fly in trading, unless you are trading for leisure and not a living. Please provide your buy criteria and lets see if there is something to learn here. There is one thing i am certain of, peny shares is not the way forward, it is not how many shares you have but the percentage gain on what you buy. |
AgoraRoad:Not sure your comments was directed at me, but if that was the case, money management is mostly based on your cash and risk appetite. I would see what could be put together but it is more of personal preference. In addition, some sort of technical analysis also comes to play. Which stock did you have running at 86% profit and when did you enter the trade. I want to run a technical and fundamental analysis on it. |
THE MARKET I have decided to include all the market indices in my analysis as significant changes in one of them would signal a change in market direction. Attached the the graph for Nasdaq, Dow and S&P. As you can see we seem to be approaching a new a new all time high. It seems the SPY will be breaking the resistance at point A next week. This point signals a new market high and I can see stocks breaking out into new high. let us see what happens next week, but I think we can trade with confidence from this point onwards.
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YerYer:Wow, that is fantastic, good return. I have never held a stock that long but that is good. true, Fundamental is key, most of the stock i trade on technical has a strong fundamental back ground. Let me know when next you have a good one and I could trade it along with you or run a dummy trade along side. You will see how the technical will compliment the fundamental on entry and exit. the issue I have with trading only fundamental is that you are likely to hold on when the stock is dropping in price for no reason. The reason might eventually pop up during the next quater. Never technically trade a stock without a strong fundamental basis.... Rule number 2. |
@ kentoto Thanks, much appreciated, it shows am not alone and someone is reading and appreciates. Let me know if you have any question. |
STOCK PICK SO FAR The stocks listed below has pulled back since they were identified as a good trade. This goes to tell that stock picking is an art and not a science. fundamentally, they are good stocks, technically, they are not in the buying range hence the need to keep and eye on them and decide with to buy. I will keep an eye on these once till the end of July to see if they come back into buying range or they fall apart. 8692
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THE STOCK PICKS SO FAR XRS As you can see, XRS is a strong stock that has recently broken out, this is an example of a strong stock which I tend to hold till I see changes in the graph. The green vertical lines showed where I bought the stock, and the second line showed where I added to my positions. Presently my position is up 31%. LGIH This is my new buy, this was not mentioned earlier but had been in my watchlist. On the recent breakout, I bought the stock at the point where you see the vertical green line. STOR This stock has shown exceptional performance, the green line showed when I spotted the stock and if you check the chat history you will find them it there. I do expect a pull back soon, and if it does, I might take a position in it. I do not chase a run away stock, once it is extended in price, I will wait for a pull back and then buy into the recovery. PAYC Trust me, this is another good stock still in a buy range, I will continue to monitor this as we progress.
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Market Review – 01/07/2016 The Market showed a strong movement with exceptional volume in the last 4 days on the up side. This movement is an indication that we are back in an uptrend but one can only make this call with caution, knowing fully well we have the issue of Brexit trailing Europe. As previously said time and time again, we are not in the business of predicting the market, as a trader we let the Market make its move and we wait to interpret what the market says. The foot print of the Market is what we use to decide the Market sentiment and the basis on which we draw our conclusion and trade with care and a good defence strategy. Attached is a daily/weekly graph of the S&P paying attention to the volume on the daily graph. We can see a significant increase in volume in the last 4 days on the upside, this is confirmed by a jump in price. There are time when you see a significant increase in volume, but prices neither move significantly up nor down, this is an indication of high buy and sell with no clear direction. In this case, we can see a Jump in price followed by a significant increase in volume till the end of the week. Note, price and volume action at the end of the week for both stock and Market is a clear indication of the market sentiment ready for the following week, as long as there are no strange events over the weekend. Events unrest in the middle east or a disruption to oil production in Niger delta could spell doom the following week. Weekly graph S&P Now have look at the weekly graph, two conditions are true, telling me that the market is showing some strength. Point B remains true (the yellow line crossed above the grey), the momentum is pointing up, the last condition is for the price to rise above point A. Right now, based on the first two condition being true, I am back in the market with caution, my first position XRS is up 31% and my new positon is up about 5%. I will run an analysis of the stocks I suggested in the last 5 weeks over the weekend to see how they have been performing. 8502
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XRS & STOR These two stocks has held tight following the market sell off, actually they both increased in price. You will see the stocks initially sold off and then came back. This is an indication of the strength of the stocks hence the need to keep them on watch list. Right now, both stocks are both at a perfect buy point. The choice and risk to buy is yours, make sure you set a comfortable stop in case the market turns against u.
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wow... It was a bad day as no one was expecting it. In fact I did not vote, thinking all will be fine, counting on others to do my civil duties/right for me. Well here we have it, we are out. Market today... Been busy throughout the week, update will be sent out at the close of business today. Please check your position and see stocks that are holding despite the market run. These are potential stocks likely to run once all is good. I own XRS and it actually gained almost 1% today, meaning the closing price for yesterday will be set as stop loss and stock will be held for another 3months. This stock as proven itself as my position is already 20% up. The graphs below shows the performance of the market (S&P 500) and XRS at the end of the trading week. The SPY daily graph shows the volatility on the market on Friday following the BEXIT vote. The Market was really beaten down and this is reflective in the daily volume. The weekly graph showed a better picture of the S&P and you could see we failed to hit the line at point A and the volume in the last 4 weeks keep on increasing. Volume Is key here, and we need to pay attention to it. Conclusion. Market is week, and has been week for the whole year, the BREXIT vote has created even a higher level of uncertainty, expected to continue well into next week and months. In addition to all this, we are fast approaching the holiday season when trading volume are expected to be low traditionally. I would suggest you trade carefully, do not make new buy unless you all the conditions are right, take profit at about 10% and look for new breakouts. The market is expected to be volatile in the coming weeks as the level of uncertainty increases. XRS & STOR These two stocks has held tight following the market sell off, actually they both increased in price. You will see the stocks initially sold off and then came back. This is an indication of the strength of the stocks hence the need to keep them on watch list. Right now, both stocks are both at a perfect buy point. The choice and risk to buy is yours, make sure you set a comfortable stop in case the market turns against u.
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Stock of the Week starting 20/06/2016 LGIH - LGI Homes Description LGI Homes, Inc. is a homebuilder. The Company is engaged in the design, construction, marketing and sale of new homes in markets in Texas, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, New Mexico, South Carolina, North Carolina, Colorado, Washington and Tennessee. The Company has five segments: the Texas division, the Southwest division, the Southeast division, the Florida division and the Northwest division. The Texas division includes homebuilding operations in Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, San Antonio and Austin locations. The Southwest division includes homebuilding operations in Phoenix, Tucson, Albuquerque, Denver and Colorado Springs locations. The Southeast division includes homebuilding operations in Atlanta, Charlotte and Nashville locations. The Florida division includes homebuilding operations in Tampa, Orlando, Fort Myers and Jacksonville locations. The Northwest division includes homebuilding operations in Seattle location. Its product offerings include entry-level homes and move-up homes.
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PAYC This stock has been reviewed at the beginning of the week and would like to round up. This is an example of a perfect stock getting ready to take off, all the conditions are right ( fundamental and technical) but the last piece of the puzzle and the most vital ( general market direction) is missing. This could continue to trade sideways for a while or breakout, but I do not expect huge gain as the market trend is week. Please keep and eye on this, go back to the thread and read the fundamentals. I have highlighted in yellow, the key technical indicators, showing that it is good to take off.
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Market Daily/Weekly/Monthly Guys, Please take time to review the Market trend at the close of session on Friday 18/06/2016. I have decided to provide the daily/weekly/Month graph in order to show the trend. The trend provides an indication of the general market condition while isolating or eliminating the noise from the daily stock movement. Starting off with the monthly graph, you will see that the volume traded although green (buy) has been decreasing month in Month out. This is a clear indication that the Market sentiment is low, people are not putting money into stocks hence the sideways moment we have seen over the last year. In addition to this, we are now in the summer season, so most people are going on holiday only to come back trading in September. If you took a closer look at the MACD graph you will see that the broken yellow line has crossed down since April last year and the last 4months has seen a significant drop in volume reducing steadily. If you carry that into the weekly graph (the graph on the Middle) You will see that the last 3 weeks has been read and the volume has been increasing as well. The last 3 weeks increase has resulted in a red volume (on the monthly graph). All these factors point to the fact that the Market is week and you should not be buying new stock now it is very hard to make money for the swing traders. Trading is about probability, we are looking for a high probability low risk trade, buying a stock with good fundamentals confirmed by a good technical graph. These good fundamental and convincing technical analysis at a point when the general market is good will create a perfect storm to move our stocks forward and make good money. We need to sit back, watch, understand the market and interpret the market and buy only when the conditions are right. The daily graph shows activities on daily basis but it is prone to a lot of noise. The weekly and monthly graph provides the trend and this is what we base our conclusion on. Traders buy stocks and take position for months and years, all we need to do is know when they are buying and Tap into it.
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Fosi:Fosi, we all started from somewhere and we will be willing to throw light into it... feel free to ask question. |
The Market Today 15/06/2016 Once again the market has failed to break through the resistance and we can see a gradual pullback in momentum. At a point last week, we saw the market (Dow) crossed the 18000 mark after which it pulled back, in addition the volume at the point of cross was low telling me there are no momentum in the Market. You wold notice I have been paying a lot of attention to the Market and not the stock. As a swing trader, the Market direction is very vital. You could see a stock break out, but if the general market is week, the probability of a further movement up will be very small hence the stock will pull back. The market movement describes the overall sentiment. Looking the first graph you will see that one of our condition for a positive move has been met, the yellow line has crossed the grey line at point B. This is very significant, telling me the factors for the new uptrend is building up. The negative to this is that the last 3 sales volume were (RED) telling me there is more sale taking place hence the market had fallen over again. The graph below showed the price action on daily basis, you will also see that we had 3 red bars in the last 4 bars showing higher sell pressure that buy (3 red and 1 green). In addition to this and of more importance is the fact that the red bars are higher than the average volume (see the broken yellow line above the volume indicator). By doing a simple maths, we have the last 3 bars on the weekly graph as red, and the 3 of the last 4 bars on the daily graph as red, meaning there has been only one green bar in the last 3 weeks. You do not need a rocket scientist to tell you the market is week, meaning you should not execute a new trade. Really I do not know for how long this trend will hold, but control is a vital part of trading, we must learn to read the signs, hold back, study stocks with high potential, set our alerts ready for a new market uptrend and we will make a killing. Patience is a virtue, and we need all the patience we can get at times like this. Will keep you posted, as of now, I will continue to highlight stock getting ready to move once the market condition is right.
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kentoto:Most of the Materials for Chart reading can be gotten on the internet. I will try and past some as soon as i come across them. if you also have a particular question, I can dig them out and sent the link on the platform. |
YerYer:You are right as emotion is a vital part of trading. Paper money is to enable you to familiarise yourself with the platform and execute your trade properly. You could also sharpen your strategy and perfect it before bringing it into live trading. |
YerYer:YerYer, I believe you use the thinkorswim platform, the same one I use for trading analysis. If not, you will have to download that and install it. You can adjust the the amount to what you want. I tend to adjust it to about 20k giving me the option to trade 4 stocks at 5k each. |
zamirikpo:By trading too fast I believe he was referring to the number of trades you make a day. 5 dollar a pop is the cheapest you can get, I trade at 10 dollar a trade but I do not day trade so it is not much of an issue. If you have large sum of money you are trading, then 5 dollar should not be an issue. So you will have to weigh it and find what is most ideal ( day trade or swing trade). Trust me, you cannot find anything lower than that. |
realnas:You will have to throw more light into that.. Not sure what you mean by beating S&P500. Do not try to beat the Market, the market is a monster that cannot be tamed by anyone. Its like going to the ocean to grab a cup of water and expect the volume to drop. Once you can trade the market and not loose money, you have already succeeded, the next step is to make steady income in bits. If you try to out run the market you will be crushed. For those heavily trading in Margin, I would advice you to not use more that 50% of the value of your equity as margin unless you know the trade is 200% guaranteed. Margin will wipe out your money faster than trading your own money. So please explain what you mean. |
PAYC continued Although the general market is week as it approaches the resistance, PAYC is showing signs of consolidation awaiting a breakout. The price change has been constant for the last 4 weeks and the volume traded has been very low during the corresponding week. Even if price had drifted down a little bit during the last 4 weeks but the volume had remained low, this would still be regarded as a positive sign. We will continue to monitor the stocks for the rest of the week hoping it would break out. Once there is a break out on high volume, with a good overall market trend, we would buy the stock, set a stop loss (risk profile) and a profit taking zone. This will provide the opportunity to show how to enter the market, define our risk profile, determine our profit takin zone up from and completely eliminate emotions that trails buy, sell and hold. Below is the fundamental analysis of PAYC. Fundamental analysis describes how a market is performing fundamentally. It looks at the sales, debt, return on equity PE ration. In short it looks at the health of the company. The choice of a stock is based on fundamental analysis but the choice of when to buy and sell is driven by Technical analysis.
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Stock Review PAYC Description Paycom Software, Inc. (Paycom) is a provider of cloud-based human capital management (HCM) software solution delivered as software as a service (SaaS). The Company's solution is based on a system of record maintained in a single database for all HCM functions, including talent acquisition, time and labor management, payroll, talent management and human resources (HR) management applications. Talent acquisition includes applicant tracking, on-boarding, e-verify and tax credit services. Time and labor management includes time and attendance, scheduling/schedule exchange, time-off requests, labor allocation and labor management reports/push reporting. Payroll includes payroll and tax management, Paycom pay, expense management, garnishment management and GL Concierge. Talent management includes employee self-service, executive dashboard and Paycom learning. Human resources management includes document and task management, government and compliance, and benefits administration.- (source google finance.
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aloziedaya:This is an advice from experience as I live and work in the UK and my Kids and wife are in Nigeria. There are various combinations and you will have to weigh the Pro and Cons as every decision come with its own challenges. 1. All the family in Nigeria. If you have the resources and can clearly define how you will maintain or meet your financial responsibility, then this is a good option. Remember ( your financial responsibility matters here), once you fall short of that all plans will fall apart. If you have a steady income form the UK say approx 1000 pounds a month then you should be able to hold steady in Lagos while you build a steady income stream. Form my calculation you need 1 million naira every month to hold steady and meet all your income on a family of 4 ( husband, wife and two kids). To relocate without any infrastructure on ground (no car, house,) you will need at least (15 million). this will get you a car, rent at 1.5m/year, kids in school for a year at 3M (note - baording school) as a day student 2 million would be fine. Remember you will need to furnish the home for another 3M (chairs, generators, beds...) and some other things i cannot really itemise. Once all that is done, as steady income of 1million or at least 700k a month will get you going. 2. Your Family in Nigeria and You still based in the UK (but you must downsize and reduce overhead) This option will keep you going for a while, the kids and wife will love it for the first year after which the pressure might set in. The wife will have a steady income, you will concentrate on work and provide a stable environment for them while you get ready to move back and join them. The issue here is that you need to define how long and make sure you stick to it not matter what happens, make sure you are not fully dependent on foreign funds, you need to make sure your wife starts something and contribute to the running of the home. The drawback here is this, if you are over dependent on the money you send abroad, there is a possibility you will be trapped in UK as you do not want them to suffer and the distance and time apart will catch up. It is one of the fastest way to marriage breakdown. Unless your wife have full interest of the family at hand and understands that life is not a bed of roses, the relationship could break down. so you have to be very very carefull with this option as i lived through it. 3. Stay in Uk and forget about Nigeira. This depends on where our heart is, trust me I make good money in the UK (405 pounds a day) but my heart is not here, I plan to go to Nigeria to farm and really working towards that. My kids are in secondary school now (boarding) and they are doing great, trust me I could not ask for more but my marriage had broken down as my wife has already settle for someone else. So you have to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.# Right now I have remarried and my wife i still in Lagos as that is my final destination and very much close to doing that. Take this from me, ti is first hand information, send me a mail and i can talk to you about it better. I would not want you to make the same mistakes i made even thought it was still the best decision I made but you cannot have it all. |
Stock Review XRS Description TAL Education Group is a holding company for a group of companies engaged in provision of after-school tutoring programs for primary and secondary school students in the People's Republic of China (the PRC). The Company is a K-12 after-school tutoring services provider in the PRC. The Company offer tutoring services to K-12 students covering core academic subjects, including mathematics, physics, chemistry, biology, history, geography, political science, English and Chinese, among others, as well as, through its Mobby tutoring services, young learners tutoring services for students aged two through eight. It delivers its tutoring services primarily through small classes (including Xueersi Peiyou and Mobby tutoring services), personalized premium services and online course offerings. Its educational network consists of approximately 289 learning centers and approximately 267 service centers in 19 cities throughout China. (source Google.com) Analysis This is a stock I have been trading for the past 3 month with a net gain of 11.27%. Right now I need to make a decision to sell the stock as all my indicators are pointing to a weak upwards movement. Yesterday the stock dropped by 3.67% taking off a reasonable chunk of my profit from over 15%. The decision now is to either hold or sell, but this will be made at the end of the week. Pending that time, a stop loss will be required in case of any unforeseen event. Attached is a weekly performance of the stock over the last 2 years, you will see from the green vertical line that the price has respected the solid yellow line ( average price in the last 20 days) and had always bounced back once the price reaches that level (solid yellow line). For that reason, I have set my stop loss at exactly that level. I do not expect the price to come to that level as the stock rose by 1.2% yesterday after market, indicating that buyers had come in after the trade to pick up bargain. As previously said, 3 of my indicators has pointed to a negative but these are lagging indicators. Price movement is the ultimate indicator in this case, hence the reason why I have set my stop loss at 52.04. If price moves above 52.04 as expected due to some buy in, I will sell, take my profit and look for another stocks to by. I have decided to sell as all my 3 indicators has pointed to a negative and this confirms the upwards movement is under pressure. Let us check this again next week to see if it was a good decision.
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@Zhirinovsky, One the critical decision to be made while trading is the choice of your trading platform. Presently based in the UK and I use TDameritrade as my platform and Thinkorswim for each trade. This is hosted by TD Ameritrade and as you have confirmed, it cost 10 dollars a trade. There are other platforms like E-Trade that charges 5 dollar a trade but I have not really tested them. I started off with TD Ameritrade, and It took me a while to master the platform. Subscribing to another platform will take another learning curve with some pit falls. When I was new to TD Ameritrade, I set a stop loss on a trade incorrectly and it cost me 8000 dollars at the end of the day. Trust me, I actually went to bed crying and did not trade for another 4months. I thought of what I could have used the money for (holiday, new car, mortgage payment) and the list goes on. So my advise is to take your time to look for one that suits your need and your budget, test it with real money and then decide what is best for you. Keep the question coming, do not forget to check stockmarketpickinfo.com as i gradually build out the posts. |