Jideams's Posts
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Checkout http://stockmarketpickinfo.com/ (note, this is work in progress) Although the Market continue to show improved performance hitting 18,000 Mark on the Dow today, there was a pull back at the end of the day showing some level of sell off. As previously discussed, the Market sentiment should be analysed from the perspective of a weekly graph as this shows the trend and the traders general perception by the end of the week. The daily graph has been provided to ensure that we keep in line with the daily activity, but the weekly graph provides a general overview of market sentimentfor the week. This is applicable to individual stocks as well.
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The Market Monday 6/06/2016 Following the positive performance last week Friday, the Market advanced further today gaining 0.51% on the S&P 500. The Market showed positive sign following the decision of the Us government not to increase interest rate. The result is cheap money in circulation pushing them market into 7months high. Note, the overall condition of the Market is an indication of the best time to trade, 3 out of every 4 stocks (75%) follows the market hence the need to pay attention to the state of the Market.
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The Market week ending 5/06/2016 The Market continue to show improved performance ending on a strong buy. The week before the last showed a full blown green candle, indicating that there was a strong buy during the whole week although volume was lower than the previous week. Last week started off with a sell (profit taking from the previous week) but as soon as the profit taking was over we had a buy on the last 3 days with increasing volume. This is an indication that the market is gathering momentum and we might eventually cross point A (see the weekly graph). See the graph below for the performance for last week on both daily and weekly graph. Conclusion. Market is showing a strong movement on the up side, the yellow line 20days moving average has touched the 200 days moving average (the grey line) which is what we have been waiting for. A full confirmation will be for the yellow to fully cross the grey with the momentum pointing up. From this point I will start analysing new stocks breaking out, indicating we are in a full bull run. Please bear with me I cannot provide a daily post for now as I am in the process of building a blog where all these information will be transferred. Please check out stockmarketpickinfo.com, this thread will later move onto this site for better interaction and video updates. In addition, you will be able to download stock picks and other articles for your own read. As the site under build, it will be offline at various times during the week, hence the need to continue to update Nairaland.
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All, Please find below my possible breakout for the week. As you all know the breakout might not happen this week but there is a high probability it does depending on the general market. Last week closed on a good note and if the trend continues this week we might high a new market high in the last 12 months Happy trading, let us follow up next weekend... drop any ideas or questions during the week and I'll pick you as the week progresses.
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@ Zamirikpo Ideally the plan to get to a point where trading could be my backup income, and considering the state of the country now, foreign currency is vital. Right now I buy and hold although my cash is minimal now as I learn new trading strategy. Moving forward, this thread will be moved onto a Blog room which is more interactive and where people could meet in a chat room. It's good to hear that “ suretrader” opens account with *6 Margin as people kept asking me how to open one from Nigeria, but what is the capital requirement to have this opened? |
NonFarmPayrol:Thats great... in fact that is what I was discussing with my friend last weekend. He trades the indices but he was telling me it was a bit diff compared to trading stocks. I have not really looked into this but would be great if you could throw some light into it. I have a good understanding of the technical analysis on when to trade it or not. Another things is that he trades a 1min chat and that is too stressful for me. Let me know what you trade, time frame, how it differs from buying and selling stocks. |
Market In the last 20years on a Monthly graph. The graph below shows the price movement of the S&P500 in the last 20 years. The current Bull market started March 2009 till today, rising by 300%. We have seen temporary corrections along the way, but not sufficient to reset the whole market and start all over again as it was evident in 2002 (following .com boom) and 2009 (following the banks and housing market crises). The Market has been stimulated by various stimulus packages resulting in sub_zero interest rates in countries like Japan, hence it will be right to say that this has been an artificial boom. The last one year has seen no significant change in the direction of the market, the last 3 yellow arrows pointing down shows points at which market rally had failed 3 times. We seem to have hit a resistance at that level and drifting sideways ever since. The Momentum graph shows that the market strength is week, exactly at zero. Actually, it was at a negative value, just approaching zero with a possibility of increasing. The last week had shown a strong and positive trading week, I have attached a weekly graph of SPY showing the point at which the market would likely break the support and move up further. Judging by the performance last week, and the trend of the solid yellow line approaching the grey, it looks more likely for the market to move higher rather than fall over. As we are not predicting the market, we can only check on weekly basis and make decision on how to trade the following week. Right now I will trade with caution until the following factors are well aligned. 1. The price breaks through the white line at point A. 2. The yellow line crosses above the grey at Point B ( at this point, I will start trading aggressively) 3. By the time the stochastics is above and steady over 50 ( Point C), we should be in a fully confirmed uptrend and would continue to trade with confidence till the market condition changes Before then, we will keep analysing the market and identifying stocks with great prospects ready to break out from consolidation.
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@zamirikpo, as you rightly said the market is dynamic and people trade based on strategy that fits their risk profile and day to day working live hence the option for buy and hold. The 8k loss was during my early days and as you rightly said, there was no stop loss hence the huge loss. Since then I have improved significantly on my money management, having a defined entry, exit and take profit point before executing any trade. I will be quite interested to see how you do your day trade, but as I said, the nature of my job is such that I cannot day trade as it saps the energy out of me. Moving forward, what we could do is share ideas, most especially on stock picks, tend analysis and the general situation of the market. From time to time, I would test your day trade strategy and see how I could gradually test the strategy over time. There are times when I am out of contract and might be possible to do this before i get back to work. In short, always keep your mind open and keep your options open to possibilities. Let me know your time schedule, where you are based and we could work out a skype session to have a chat and build up a trading forum from there. I am sure like minded people will join and share there strategy as we move along. For me my details are as follows location UK email - jimoh.jobs@hotmail.co.uk Reach out to me and I will add you to my what app profile. let me know once you send me an email so that I could check the box and send you my mobile number for whats app. |
PATK, Last week I spotted PATK as at a good buy position and recommended a buy, attached is a graph of PATK this week before the Market trade on Friday, you will realise that the stock has gaped up over the week and we have a tight trade in the last two days (days during which the price movement is very minimal). These are the signs of a good price movement, Please have a look at my graph number 3 and I will explain what you need to look out for in a good stock. note, this is in addition to the stock fundamental. I have highlighted some spinal points A, B, C, D, E and F and will explain them as follows. A - shows two days after price jump, volume has remained relatively unchanged for those to days which tells me they are consolidating the gains. B - The three lines, (broken Yellow, solid yellow and solid gray) are 10, 20 and 40 days moving averages, the are well aligned and not crossed. C- Volume of trade, the volume of trade on the days the price went up is much higher than the last two days the price dropped. D - Momentum - The Momentum of trade is above zero, telling the the stock is trending up. E - MACD - Moving average convergence divergence tells me it is green and moving up. F - Stochastic - the stochastic is above and constant over the 50th percentile. As I have reviewed the fundamental analysis in the past and was quite happy with it, this technical analysis is the perfect storm for me and the only missing piece is the general market direction. Ideally I would buy this stock now and take profit at max 10% moving forward. Let us see what the market brings at the end of the day and a review next week Friday.
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zamirikpo:@zamirikpo, Thanks for your comments, much appreciated. It is true that people trade every day and you could actually trade the market at any time be it up or down. Actually if you trade Markets outside the Nigerian Market, you will realise that you could make money if the market is going either down or going up ( hence people trade the market any time). There are some golden rules in trading the stock market ( not referring to the Nigerian market in this case). 1. what is the general Market trend, 2. Your psychology of Investing and 3. money Management. You have to critically understand the three and trade in such a way that all the three factors are considered in any trade at any given time. Back to the general market trend, if you are an optimistic trader, you only want to buy or add to your positions when the general market trend is up. but if you want to trade the market at this time, then you have to take small profit as about 5% each time ( money management), in addition to this you will need to execute each trade with good conviction that the market is in your favour ( psychology of trade). Now if you are an optimistic trader, you sit aside and watch your position while the general market is down, do more research on which stocks to trade as the market trend resumes. Trust me, to make money in day trading stocks( not options or futures) you need substantial amount of money and you could easily be wiped out doing this. I have once lost 8000 dollars in one day and i have the scares to show for it. Experience matters a lot in trading such markets. |
Hi Guys, Sorry I have been off for a while as the market has been a struggle, I was hopping the Market will Turn around soon and start Market analysis again but that has not been the case. Let me break down the situation up to today and see where we are. The Market. The Market has been very week and we have not had a new high since May 2015. Right now I await a point where the 50 day moving average ( yellow line) will cross above the 200 day moving average ( the gray line). see my white arrows indicating the Yellow and the gray lines. You will see that the Yellow line had been below the gray for almost a year now, that is a sign of weakness hence the need to sit back. I have added another graph showing the daily graph. This clearly shows that the yellow line is about to cross below the grey on the daily graph which feeds into the weekly graph. In short the market weakness continues. Righ now, I will continue to sit back till we have a bullish trading environment after which I will start trading again. Attached is my list of Top Rated stocks to buy once the market picks up. Buy Recommendation PATK See Graph below showing a perfect buy point
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Hi, Thanks for the article, I have read this with great interest. Is there any possibility of getting in touch with you as this is a doable business for me. Please reach out to me on jimoh.jobs@hotmail.co.uk |
Facebook Yesterday was an erratic trading day for facebook, as the stock plunged about 5% and then closed at the positive range. Is the momentum of the market dropped on monday, I adjusted all my stops to 5% below the closing price read for Tuesday trade. After the opening bell the market plunged down and hit my stop loss for Facebook before it could recover and i was taken out only to realise that the stock closed at a positive range. Looking at the graph I saw that there was a strong buy after the drop resulting in an "hammer candle", due to the nature of the closing candle I position my self to but facebook the following day based on the following conditions 1. The trade must not be executed unless facebook rose above the previous day close by 0.25% 2. The trade must not be executed if the price rise above 0.75% 3. The trade must only be executed at a range between 0.25 and 0.75 % 4. Once it is executed a stop loss must be automatically set up at 5% below what ever the buy price is. This is to ensure maximum loss of 5%. 5 If for any reason, the stock rises 10% above the buy price for any reason after buying it, sell all position and bank my funds. Market opens. 1. Facebook opens at 1% above last trade and then pull back to 0.3%, 2. My trade was executed at 0.3% and now face book is at 0.5% up meaning I have made 1.25% today. Lesson. The lesson here is to make sure that you are not trading based on emotion, I had set all my criteria last night before I went to bed and all the trades had been executed while I was at work. I knew my entry price, stop loss and profit zone before i bought the stock. This is one of the best ways to trade. Once you take emotions out of your trade you are on your way to success. Another thing is money management, if you are right 7 out of 10 times ( excellent) and you do not have a sound money management, you will loose money at the end of the day. Trust me, experience is the best teacher. See my face book so far, the green arrows indicate my buy points
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Stocks stabbed lower Friday as the Nasdaq joined the S&P 500 in falling under the 200-day moving average (figure 1). The Nasdaq dropped 1.5%, its third loss of 1% or more during the week. The Dow Jones industrial average and S&P 500 lost 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively. Volume rose across the board. The Nasdaq punctured its 200-day line one day after the S&P 500 did (Bad sign, market falling over). The Nasdaq's 50-day line turned north recently as some ugly August days fell outside the 50-day range. But any slightly positive sign in the current stock market is dwarfed by larger realities. For example, the distribution count is now at a high level, and the Nasdaq suffered cluster distribution — three distribution days in the past four sessions. Distribution involves a loss in rising volume, which is the footprint of institutional selling. Also, the new-lows count continues to bulldoze over the new highs. All this adds up to a shaky picture and an atmosphere that seems irrational. While some of the battered retailers are low-rated stocks that have been going down for months, the bears went after quality names Friday. Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) gapped down to an 8% loss in heavy volume. There was no news connected to the drop. Ulta won't report Q3 results until Dec. 3. Recent weak news in the retail sector apparently led to an approach of shoot first and ask questions later. Signet Jewelers (NYSE:SIG) shed 3% in heavy volume, also without specific news. The company will report quarterly results before the open Nov. 24. Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) and its Internet retailer group was one of the few retail areas where recent economic figures are encouraging. Sales for the online retailers in September rose 7.1% vs. the year-ago period. Still, the group fell 3% Friday, and Amazon dropped 3.5% without any company-specific news. Two things should be kept in mind. First, one week doesn't make a trend. The market remains in an uptrend, though pressured. Second, investors should look at each holding and trim where appropriate. For the week, the Nasdaq fell 4.3%; and the S&P 500, 3.6%.
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@ lexicot From the look of things you are a day trader on a 15min price interval. Based on that you are better off on technical analysis fundamental is not of much use here. You are quite comfortable with your technical analysis identifying your double bottom, resistant and breakouts. As work during market hours this is not a possibility for me although I would like you to confirm how u identify what to trade for a day. |
Stocks staggered further south Thursday, as the S&P 500 lost its 200-day line and the major indexes fell for a sixth time in seven sessions. The Nasdaq retreated 1.2%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 led the way down with a 2% dive. Volume rose on both main exchanges, helped by an easy comparison vs. Veterans Day. New lows outnumbered new highs for the third straight session, a depressing development for the bulls. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 closed under its 200-day moving average line for the first time in three weeks. The Nasdaq remains above its 200-day line but has cut the cushion roughly in half. Both remain above their 50-day lines. Normally the 200-day line is below the 50-day line, and that persistent reversal of roles is one reason to be cautious. The day's action was bad enough to slap both indexes with distribution. The sizable losses in rising volume normally point to institutional selling. However, given the easy volume comparison, the call is less certain. So far, the distribution level is manageable, but it wouldn't take much to change that picture. News lacked clarity Thursday, leaving bears and bulls free to interpret meaning as they wish. Three items drew attention: •First-time jobless claims were 4% higher than expected but unchanged from the previous week. •The price of oil fell about 3% as supplies rose for a seventh consecutive week. While bulls might see this as a potential driver for consumer spending, the bears regard it as a sign of weak demand. SUMMARY Be very cautious as the market is not strong enough and we have hit another all time high. There is not good information in the market to propel us forward. What to do look out for stocks trying to make new hight in bad times and note them check your stocks for those dropping price in high volume and not them, They are the first to be sold buy them back later if market is good. Identify stocks you will buy more of when the market is good. I will provide a graph of the general market at the end of the week " today" |
kentoto:Actually the inverse is the case, earning season can be very very volatile and if you have a log at stake, it is better to half your holdings. ideally a conservative trader will stay out of the market during the earning season unless he his about 20% up in profit. That way he can take the shock. It could swing either way and i have seen it go the wrong way several times for various reasons. I have come across a way of trading earning seasons using insurance premium, something similar to you buying insurance on your car. You loose it if you do not have an accident, but it protect you when you do. It is called options, still in the process of investigating it. |
The stock market shuffled the cards Friday and came up with new winners and losers for the day, as a strong payrolls report increased the odds of an interest rate hike. The Nasdaq posted an 0.4% gain, while the S&P 500 fell less than 0.1%. Small caps led as the Russell 2000 added 0.8%. In the coming week, the earnings season continues. Companies reporting earnings include Priceline Group (NASDAQ:PCLN) on Monday; D.R. Horton (NYSE:DHI) on Tuesday; and NetEase (NASDAQ:NTES) on Wednesday. |
kentoto:ok Join me here https://www.nairaland.com/2460429/us-stock-market-even-playing/4 |
Jideams:I have decided to do a weekly analysis of these 4 positons as we move along as i actively trade 3 of them. By doing that I' will keep and an eye on my positions and suggest new possible ones as we go along.
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easyboy212:Read this thread https://www.nairaland.com/2496049/us-stock-market-101-hot someone just figured out how to do it. |
The major indexes were near their intraday highs with just over an hour left in the regular trading session. The Nasdaq and Dow Jones industrial average were each up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 pared its loss to 0.3%. Volume was tracking slightly higher across the board vs. the same time Thursday. A much better than expected job report raised expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates in December. That fueled bank stocks, which are seen benefiting from higher rates, to big gains.Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) led the Dow with a 3% gain apiece. Walt Disney (NYSE:DIS) rose 2% in heavy volume after late Thursday reporting fiscal Q4 earnings that topped views but revenue that missed. Banks, software and chip stocks led the upside in the stock market today, while utilities, gold miners and food stocks underperformed. Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) chip suppliers were on fire. Skyworks Solutions (NASDAQ:SWKS) gapped up and soared 8%, rising past its 50-day moving average in fast trade. Shares are still below their 200-day line and 23% off their June high. Skyworks and fellow iPhone chip supplier Qorvo (NASDAQ:QRVO) jumped in after-hours trading Thursday following their quarterly reports. On Friday, Qorvo gapped up and surged 20% to also retake its 50-day line. Avago Technologies (NASDAQ:AVGO), another Apple supplier and an IBD 50 stock, advanced 6% as it regained its 50-day and 200-day lines. Apple, meantime, was fractionally higher after paring a 1% early gain. On the downside, TripAdvisor (NASDAQ:TRIP) gapped down and sank 7% in fast turnover. The stock fell well below an 85.26 cup-with-handle buy point it was nearing. Canaccord Genuity downgraded the stock to neutral. The online travel booker on Thursday reported Q3 EPS that missed views. |
The following stocks announced result today and their numbers beat expectation See the new graph on facebook following the earning result yesterday, Facebook view has now hit I billion views a day and they now have a huge market in india. See a breakdown of their result. EPS Due Date1/28/2016 EPS % Chg (Last Qtr) 33% 3 Year EPS Growth Rate 72% EPS Est % Chg (Current Yr) 18% Annual ROE 18.28% Sales % Chg (Last Qtr) 41% 3-Year Sales Growth Rate 54% Debt % 0% Market Cap $306.44 bil Profit Margin 57.1% SWKS - They make the chips in IPHONE - If you are heavy on apple to not but this as they both move in the same direction. I will present the graph tomorrow as the movement took place after hour trade and this has not reflected on the graphs. Keep an eye on this stock as it is in correction as the moment, but this announcement could bring it back to life. Description Skyworks Solutions Inc. is engaged in the production of analog semiconductors. The Company supports automotive, broadband, wireless infrastructure, energy management, Global Positioning System (GPS), industrial, medical, military, wireless networking, smartphone and tablet applications. The Company's portfolio includes amplifiers, attenuators, circulators, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, front-end modules, hybrids, infrastructure radio frequency (RF) subsystems, isolators, lighting and display solutions, mixers, modulators, optocouplers, optoisolators, phase shifters, phase locked loops (PLLs), synthesizers, voltage controlled oscillator power dividers (VCOs), power dividers/combiners, power management devices, receivers, switches, and technical ceramics. The Company's products include Front-end Modules and Amplifiers, Wireless Infrastructure, Power Management, Precision Analog Components, WiFi Connectivity, and Smart Energy.
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Hi All, Please find below my list of good performing stocks for the month based on fundamentals and technical analysis. Please review this yourself if you want to trade it and enter an an appropriate point suitable to you. FB = 104 PCYC =57.90 OZRK = 50.83 FLTX = 45.73 I will analyse these on weekly basis till trend changes. |
All, Please find below the graph of FB (facebook) as of today. This is a perfect buy point to buy face book, I have been in face book for 2 weeks now and they will release their result end of market today. As you know, past performance is not and indication of future performance. Facebook is expected to deliver today and if it does I will hold it for the next earning season unless something drastic happen to the market again. I am currently investigating how to trade using insurance policy especially on a day like this when face book could move as much as 15% in either direction. The insurance will protect me in case it move in opposite direction to my expectation. It will limit my loss. Once I have a good understanding of it I will share it with the house. I need to catch up with the day trader in the house (ZPIXEL) I missed you during my last trip to Lagos but will sure catch up on DEC.
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Hi all, I have decided to start off by reviewing what happened over time and see where we are today. As we all know, the market does not go up for ever, it will take a break, correct or even crash. After the struggle following the last correction I reviewed the market to see what went wrong and what I could do to prevent or protect my self in the near future. As you know the market always repeat itself. The diagram below showed that the price of the market had remained at relatively the same levels over they year. I marked 3 points X1,X2,X3 on the graph during which the MACD green line was below the yellow line on the weekly graph. This points corresponds to price P1, P2,P3 where the price was below the 10day moving average. These are indication of the market weekness and i have made a rule to either get out of the market or completely reduce my risk during similar times in the future. point X4 is where the MACD green was over the yellow and the Price P4 was over the 10day moving average. Simple rule..... when the general market or one of the major indexes ( SPY, NASDAQ, DOW) exhibit these characteristics, it is an indication that the market is week and you have to protect yourself until a favourable time X4,P4 returns. He who fight and run away live to fight another day. I was consumed in the last up trend so I have a lot of work to do to recover. Another thing to note and why you should not marry a stock is that winners in the last up trend are not going to be the same winner in the next uptrend. Check out SKX and GRPO to see where they are today. I have 3 positions running now ( two weeks old) and will continue to review to identify new stocks. They are as follows FB PAYC OZRK
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kentoto:Nice one good research |
Hi All, Apologies for the break, been busy with work and the market has not been encouraging, I believe we have settled now and its time to identify new leader. |
Hi all, Just to let you know that the market in Shangai picked up today and right now it is 1.5% up. this provide further conviction that the fear is almost over and we should possibly see a complete U turn of the market by Friday. Advice is to buy at least one good stock today, when it runs it will run fast to catch at least one or two stocks today ready for when the market reset but keep your stops very very tight say 3%. |
MARKET WRAP 27/08/2015 Today showed the first sign of market recovery, If we have the same performance tomorrow, this could be declared a follow through day. Based on the technical of the index today and the performance of leading stocks, I have entered the market again today. The reason for entering the market are as follows. 1. The Chinese market dropped only about 1.5% today. 2. All the Major indexes closed up well above 3.0%. That almost eradicate all fear. 3. SPY the broadest index closed up about 4% at a volume 143% above average. This is a clear indicator that the fear is almost over. 4. Tomorrows trade is a confirmation of the status of the market. If we get another 2% rise then we can go out and fully trade the market but keep a tight stock. Now These are the stocks i bought today NFLX SKX LXFT Other possible buy is PANW. I did not buy it because the earnings are close.
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MARKET WRAP The Market continue to be volatile even though we saw some buying pressure yesterday. UK closed up at over 3% but even though US opened high, it closed low. One of the signs of a week market is "open high and close low" based on the negative closure of the US Market yesterday, am sure the FTSE (UK) will be in the negative today. If you look at the graph of the spy today, the price at market closure yesterday was below that of Monday when there was an attempt rally, telling us that we are still in a correction, but the rate at which we are descending is decreasing. Also have a look at the graphs, the price drop is very very steep. so this cannot change over night, we need a soft landing then a trend reversal. The candle stick shows that the market is very very week.
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zPixel:Good... Think you are doing well really. Right now am completely out of the market as it is too volatile. The good thing is that if you watch this market and get in at the right time. You will be well positioned for the next few years. My plan is to watch this and enter a the right time. Right now there is too much fear, but i was sure that if i knew your investment strategy I would have made a lot this week as I knew good stocks i could buy with a potential for good move, and if it goes wrong, i can still hold onto them as i quite understand their fundamentals. I will be in lagos for a week next month and the whole of Dec. am sure we will catch up and have a better conversation. As promised, still a bit busy with work now so I will call you have we have a good chat. Trust me two heads are better than one and I never shy away from an opotunity to learn. |
