₦airaland Forum

@ poster

the first place I saw the above analysis the source quoted, Tam david west, then I chuckled, Tam david west left the oil sector a long time ago so he may be right in 1984 not today.

Sanusi is just using his female voice to decieve Nigerians. why the poster is asking this question is because sanusi never told you that subsidy is paid on products from our refineries,

take your time and read this to understand better and why.



I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you

thank you for that, note the palliatives IMf recommended iweala thinks we deserve buses for the hike in the cost of living. I dont understand which side of the text book this people read, below is my opinion about Sanusi.


One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.
Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.
Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.
The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.
Lastly
Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

thank you for that, note the palliatives IMf recommended iweala thinks we deserve buses for the hike in the cost of living. I dont understand which side of the text book this people read, below is my opinion about Sanusi.


One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.
Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.
Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.
The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.
Lastly
Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

where is my thread titled "sanusi Nigeria's economic magician" on the politics section and why did it not make it to the front page?

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.
Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.
Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.
The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.
Lastly
Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.
Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.
Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.
The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.
Lastly
Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.
Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.
Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.
The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.
Lastly
Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

because na cpc tell God is good motors to review T fare reom 2500 to 10k Asaba to lagos,lol they think Nigerians are that s1lly.

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.
Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.
Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.
The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.
Lastly
Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.

Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.

Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?

I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.

This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.

Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.

Who is this man Sanusi?

In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.

There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case.

During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.

Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy.

Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.

I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions.

After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.

Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.


This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?

Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).

“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this
economic magician break their finances?

Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?

Thirdly,

Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.

SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.


Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigeripans is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?


What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.


Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?


According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;


Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.

Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible?

When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive?

For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?

How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.

Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.

I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.


The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.

Lastly

Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?

Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.

Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.

Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?

I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.

This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.

Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.

Who is this man Sanusi?

In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.

There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case.

During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.

Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy.

Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.

I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions.

After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.

Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.


This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?

Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).

“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this
economic magician break their finances?

Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?

Thirdly,

Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.

SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.


Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigeripans is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?


What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.


Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?


According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;


Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.

Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible?

When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive?

For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?

How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.

Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.
I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.

I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.


The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.
Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.

Lastly

Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.
Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?

Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.
Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state, zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.
Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.
Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country? Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?
I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.
This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.
Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.
Who is this man Sanusi?
In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.
There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,
Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.
The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.
Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.
Destroyed the first instrument of perception which soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.
I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?
I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.
Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.
Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.
This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.
That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?
Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.
First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).
“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.
Secondly, his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol. What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers? In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity? What drives this man’s economic sagacity? Witch craft?
Thirdly,
Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.
SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.
With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.
Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?
What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?
sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized.
Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?
According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;
Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.

Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible? When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive? For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.

Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.

I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.
I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.

The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.

Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.

Lastly

Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.
How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.

Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?
Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?
This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.
How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?
I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;
if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN
If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?
Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?
Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

One big problem of Nigerians is our inability to scrutinize people’s pedigree.

Look at president Jonathan for instance, this is a man with zero success story as both deputy and Gov. of bayelsa state,
zero success story as both vice and acting president yet Nigerians delude themselves he is the messiah even when it was clear that unscrupulous people were donating to his campaign, we still believed he will take us to the promised land on luck.


Let us talk about this mystic economic team Jonathan put together, who are these people?
I for one have no bias against any public official
in which ever capacity but I have zero tolerance for incompetence.

Has sanusi’s economic model ever worked in this country?

Which economic school of thought does he belong to and what is his mission in this country?


I asked this because I am an ardent follower of events in our economic sphere and have never been shy to put Sanusi’s parlance and pragmatism of economic solutions to a test, but as I speak, sanusi’s economic agenda eludes me.


This is a man who inherited a banking sector which according to Business day 2006 edition averred that “for every five Nigerians with a good job, three are bankers”.


Today, we have a Sanusi who in his usual voodoo economic jingoism has created more unemployment and inefficiency in the banking sector than the military junta.


Who is this man Sanusi?


In the words of his predecessor who consolidated these banks, “the banks were more financially robust” and doing bigger business but along the line something happened.


There was partial deregulation and the cost of diesel went all time high and very scarce, some of those companies who took loans from the banks were running high over head cost and couldn’t survive the tsunami of events that followed,


Job cuts, and eventual closure was the case. During the last days of chukwuma soludo, the businesses were already down so no way to repay the bank loans.

The banks were stranded but soludo applied wisdom, in his words ‘’ decision making in the banking system must carry the instrument of perception along’’ and that was exactly what he did, he quickly created an EDW whereby the near distressed banks could quietly access Govt. loans to revive their institutions hoping to keep people’s confidence in tact while the banks gradually recover.


Here comes our Sanusi with his usual economic parlance and political jingoism.

Destroyed the first instrument of perception soludo fought so hard to preserve by coming on National television to announce that those banks are not healthy. Till date, we lost one of the most viable sectors of this economy; we lost meaningful employments and international confidence in our banking institutions in its entity, thanks to Sanusi’s voodoo economic theories and mystic economic solutions.


I ask again; who is this Man Sanusi and his mission in this country?


I leave you to be the judge of preceding events from Sanusi’s actions. After consulting his economic oracle, he boldly told Nigerians that the way forward is to bail out the banks (which he destroyed) and SME’s (small and medium scale enterprise) hoping that they will bounce back in business to repay the bank loans.


Till date, Sanusi has not given Nigerians the progress report of those bailed out banks and SME’s especially those in the textile business.


Today, by throwing his weight behind full deregulation in the downstream sector simply tells me that Sanusi’s witch doctor did not tell him exactly which economic formula destroyed his banks. Perhaps he thought that his SME ‘’palliative’’ was good enough for miserable Nigerians who don’t mind trading a permanent position job for a contract job which was what his SME’s were offering or rather, our employments for underemployment.


This is a man that ignores the basic on ground economic theories that work in the country for some mystic economic solutions.

That begs the question; should you deregulate fully the downstream sector, what becomes of those SME’s and how do they repay the loans you gave to them considering that energy cost and inflation will triple their over head cost? Or has his voodoo economic solution already categorized them as mere collateral damage in his economic reform agenda?


Let us analyze some of sanusi’s Hennessey inspired economic formulae.


First he said that by withdrawing subsidy they have destroyed corruption and broken the financial bones of the ‘’cabal’’ benefitting from this subsidy regime, is this really true?
If the landing cost of PMS is about 110naira and government’s inefficiency bloats it to 141naira (ofcourse, storage,transportation,deumurrage etc as enshrined into the subsidy are all Govts ineptitude).

“Citeris paribus” under the subsidy program, a marketer earns 110-65 (ie if ideally Govt clean their mess)
And without subsidy, a marketer makes 220,180,165-110 who exactly did this economic magician break their finances? Because what I see in my economics kwashiorkor is Govt transferring the burden of import deficit to the people not the marketers losing money like sanusi claims.


Secondly,

his liquor economics made him believe that he will save money in the face of spiral inflation, and went ahead to justify the. inflation saying it is by a little fraction not more than 10% increase, lol.

What indices did this acclaimed “pundit” use in measuring this?
In an economy without a functional price regulatory agency and a comatose standard organization with shabby police officers?

In an economy where everybody is his own LGA and can fix rates with impunity?
What drives this man’s economic sagacity?

Witch craft?
Thirdly,

Sanusi is consistently lying to Nigerians that an increase in pump price will attract investors to build refineries; this is the verge where I think sanusi should go back to school.

SLS is not enlightened enough to understand why there was an exodus of indigenous American companies between 1998 to 2008 to Asia and Africa, reason; COST OF DOING BUISNESS or better put, UNFAVOURABLE BUISNESS CLIMATE.


With unfavorable tax laws, incessant labor wage reviews and land acquisition challenges, most companies couldn’t survive and they left US en masse conversely, land grab in Africa and cheap labor in Asia became viable alternatives.


Today, a drunk CBN governor in his usual rhetoric, capitalizing on the chasm of academic deficiency of average Nigerians is proposing that increase in pump price which will directly translate to high energy cost (in a generator driven economy), spiral inflation and high cost of labor will attract foreign investors to build refineries. Is it not ridiculous?

What kind of voodoo economic theory is that?


sanusi quickly forgot to tell Nigerians that their existing refineries even at a disappointing output is subsidized to sell @ 65naira.

Mr Sanusi should have asked himself, when we deregulated diesel, did we attract heavy duty companies, diesel refineries and why?


According to his business model, I was expecting that after the deregulation of diesel, we would have had companies like
CAT,Ingersollrand,Volvo,Ebara,bosh,Groove,Capco etc even refineries enhanced to produce more of Diesel with limited petroleum by products relocating their plants to Nigeria to benefit from our diesel profitable market. But in reality, that wasn’t the case and i will explain why;

Take shell for example, the presence of SPDC in portharcourt has given rise to a plethora of servicing companies rendering one or two services to shell and that is how it works. These servicing companies are equally employers of labor.

Does sanusi think that the refining companies will be servicing themselves? Is that possible?

When you destroy the business environment for these smaller servicing companies to thrive, how exactly do you want the refining companies to thrive?
For the few that will survive, at what cost will they render their services? Shouldn’t the investors consider these in their feasibility studies?
How will they cope? If at all it works, most components and services are definitely going to be outsourced to neighboring countries creating jobs for Ghanaians and Nigerians than Nigeria.

Some servicing companies will rather relocate to nearby countries and leave skeletal operations here in Nigeria just to stay in business; sanusi will end up exporting services elsewhere.

I am deeply ashamed and embarrassed at the caliber of people that take decisions for this nation.

I say it for the umpteenth time; we don’t need to create problems to solve problems, what we need is to ensure that Nigeria has cheaper oil on ground, that will attract investors as against sanusi’s high pump price economic theory which will breed inflation and closure of smaller companies.


The IOC’s (international oil companies) operating in Nigeria has told us that it takes less than 12 usd to extract 1bbl of our crude oil.

Why is sanusi not thinking of creating a solution from that angle? if NPDC can guarantee us just 150,000bbl/d of this cheap crude at less than 12usd, the market will be attractive, add refining cost and other cost to push it to about 22usd/bbl a pms of 30naira per litre will be achievable from these refineries and inflation will reduce by over 40%.

leaving us with a plethora of servicing companies which will translate to more jobs.
Is this too much for Madueke and Sanusi to sit and figure out? Other than their inflation marred solution.

Lastly

Sanusi lied that the subsidy reinjection fund will be used to build refineries; I can’t help but pity his unrealistic mystic economic solutions.

How much is the FG’s cut in the SURE fund? Less than 600billion, what kind of refinery will that build? I hope sanusi is not confusing refineries for fuel dispensing stations or are we heading for another IMF/world bank debt burden? I don’t just get it.


Where will this SURE funding appear from? I didn’t see it in the 2012 budget proposal, is it right to increase the suffering of the Nigerian people and go back and implement your constitutional annual budget?


Where is sanusi going to get the crude oil to supply these refineries? From the little we make from our JV? I hope this man is not taking us for a ride?

This same crude we use to implement our budget? Which sells at international price? This man is cynical.


How did we end up with two monsters sanusi lamido sanusi and Allison Madueke at the same time?

I can see a pattern in Sanusi’s line of thought;

if a bank is performing poorly, CLOSE IT DOWN

If the subsidy regime is performing poorly; SCRAP IT.
Can Nigerians please help me ask Sanusi if it is a crime to proffer real economic solutions to economic challenges other than throwing away the child with the bath water?

Should we fold our hands and watch our Economic magician Sanusi scrap the economic foundation of our survival?


Sanusi and Allison madueke are doing a great disservice to this nation though I don’t expect Mr. President to fire them because he is too incompetent to read the hand writings on the wall.

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

I cannot but express my profound
gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC
and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly
behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a
group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil
and gas upstream sector who wish our
voice to be heard in this battle to save
Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government,
these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy
regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed
he has evidence of round tripping , he said
he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels
approved by customs.
what did madueke do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build
refineries over the years was lack of cheap
crude but the biggest reason is corruption
how?

licences were given to companies without
the financial muscle to build refineries also
part b of the license clearly states that
these armed robbers have oil lifting license
embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting
where he makes instant profit and inflated
subsidy
what did madueke do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have
storage facilities for all those millions of
products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store
30million litres of pms?
do you know that these fg goons went
ahead to licence importers without storage
facilities leading to the govt paying extra
for storage on a product they are paying
over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this
stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and madueke do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc
have no grading structure for imported
pms low grade,mid grade and high grade
all are pms same subsidy, same price even
ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them,
can you beat that?
even abroad where the products come
from have different prices. some are far
cheaper than others which ordinarily
should attract low subsidy


what did madueke do? nothing.

do you know that these bingos at Nnpc
dont maintain their pipeline networks
which ordinarily should link one depot to
the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers
transporting these products all are
subsidies.
eventhough their foreign jv partners are
maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in
Nigeria.
what did madueke do?
nothing.


do you know that under madueke's watch
demurrage is paid as subsidy to these
importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their
import schedule?
is it not commonsensical for madueke to
prioritize the discharge of those vessels
quickly in tank farms as not to attract
demurrage for a product you are
subsidizing?


and they want us to tighten for a better
future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and
madueke plan for a sustainable future if
given the task?
dead failures.


for every extra kobo you pay on pms you
paid for madueke's incompetence.
now they can see high expenditure but
cant see how their incompetence is
inflating the subsidy regime.
Do u seriously think iweala will see it
comming if it was true that economy will
crash?


Let us analyze the genere and politics of
these issues
There are more misnomers than facts
surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.
First,
the Govt said the economy will collapse,
ridiculous indeed

secondly,

the Govt said
oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off
my seat.
Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the
scarcity of petroleum products became
intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc
through its subsidiary PPMC has failed
Nigerians by their inability to meet up with
the supply of pet. Products and that
phenomenon gave rise to licensing of
some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing
their job for which they are paid for.
Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has
been doing the importation and refining
themselves before corruption eroded their
common sense.
These importers went abroad and came
back with a price Nnpc is already aware of
comprising of logistics, storage and
administrative costs, these were quantified
before they arrived at a price.
The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on
Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the
importers the balance not oblivious of the
fact that the landing cost is higher than
the stipulated price
To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s
administration woke up and termed them
'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.


Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy
a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell
it 1.5k adding purchase price plus logistics
plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at
900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira
balance? When the incompetent NNPC
agrees to reimburse him, then he has
become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their
responsibility, we won’t have need for the
importers in the first place.There is no
doubt that the subsidy regime is met with
corrupt practices, is it not the
responsibility of the govt to clamp down on
those malfeasance?
the Governor of central bank confessed
during the town hall meeting that he paid
subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived
with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in
chief? by the way, how many naval officers
patrol our waters on tax payers account?
efcc,icpc etc
The only solution that came to the minds
of this disgruntled PDP administration is to
remove subsidy into-to not minding its
inflationary consequences.
This is the si1liest approach any human
being with brain if they have one can
summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of
Nigerians telling us that we don't benefit
from this subsidy except for the importers
and he had the unbridled temerity to be
advertising it on NTA saying the rich are
getting richer.
This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the
market to buy vegetable at a price, does he
not know that the seller included cost of
transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @
65naira and fixes his price based on that,
he says his mother did not benefit from
the subsidy that guaranteed the price in
the first place?
In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers
are drunks or they think that Nigerians are
m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that
competition will crash the deregulated
price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.
Do you know that the price of crude being
the raw material for refined pet. Products
are sold at the same price world overl?
If you agree to this, then, even if you
deregulate and license 5million importers
the product will still be expensive because
crude itself is expensive.
You will still need to subsidize it to
65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel
in part did not work.The only reason you
have not bought diesel @ 200naira is
because there are so many illegal
refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and
refine diesel at a lower price.
This people still pose a great threat to the
importers who buy at a higher price that is
why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere
but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira. At
this verge you will not over rule the fact
that these unscrupulous elements
contribute to the availability of diesel, if
you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap
diesel, ask the dealer the source of his
consignment If he is honest he will tell you
the truth, when i was told, i took an hr
20mins boat ride to a remote village in the
delta between Belema and Kola
communities and i saw the local refinery
myself.
Conduct a chemical test on those cheap
diesels if you are not convinced and you
will realize a lot of additives are
missing.Sounds incredible but those are
the realities on ground.You now know why
many importers in the delta hardly have
diesel.
I still feel sorry for those who think the
Govt should build more refineries, that will
not solve the problem either because there
is no cheap crude to supply these
refineries.


Do you know that even the petroleum
products from our present refineries at a
disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.
This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing
local price to attract investors is
misleading.

He should ask himself why so
many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and
Arrica between 1998 till 2008.
The reason was because cost of doing
buisness in America was high so there was
need to tap into Africa's cheap land and
asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral
inflation will discourage investors, you pay
high for land,labour, enegy etc.


A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas
model gives us a better outlook
The oil production of Nigeria stands at
2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria
get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with
IOC's (international oil companies) and the
Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the
lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a
total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average
the crude price from 2009 till date, the
price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case,
Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from
this JV.
Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic
supply obligation) which mandates
250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined
and consumed locally,In monetary terms,
the Nigerian govt is giving us
25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.
Our three refineries at optimum capacity
utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives
45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other
words, the price of raw material in this
case, crude, accrued to our refineries
comes at 45m usd per day
, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd
per bbl,The total cost becomes
270,000,000usd per day.There is no way
you can refine that crude at that price and
sell it 65naira/ l and make profit.
Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m
usd worth of crude for our refineries
(assuming they are working at optimum
capacity), the govt has already lost 45m
usd from their 140m usd daily earnings
(which will affect budget implementation)
and after refining will still spend more
money to subsidize it to 65naira/ l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes
the products from our refineries)
With this analogy, you will agree with me
that if all our refineries are working
optimally, the govt will spend 3times our
present day subsidy to bring the pump
price down to 65naira/l .


So, for those of you clamoring for
refineries should be careful what you wish
for because there is no cheap crude for
you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of
other derivatives of crude will bring down
the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but
after doing some feasibility studies, i
realized i was dead wrong.


I further argued that to make cheaper
crude available for our refineries, the Govt
should reduce the price at which it is
supplied unfortunately, the senate
mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the
DSO must be sold at international crude
price.
This i believe was proposed for the
following reasons:


1 the refineries are working below capacity
so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude
for?


2, there is a benchmark on crude price for
budget implementation.With these
reasons, any existing or yet to exist
refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high
price and must need subsidy to sell at
65naira/ l, at this cross road, the then
GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude
should be exported and subsidy be paid on
imported products.


At this verge, i must reiterate here that
competition amongst importers will only
crash the profit margin but not cost
price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an
importer of pet. Prods, we can never
change the fact that crude in the int l
market is already expensive before thinking
of refined prod. So we must need subsidy
to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum
products can be addressed,You must have
the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude
prices to enable it implement budget. This
stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort
from the JV
.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark
above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue
(ECR) 3, conversely, if we make excess
crude revenue, the price of subsidy on
refined products shoot up.With the above
analogy,
One can argue that the ECR be used to
subsidize imported petroleum products
since both are a function of each other
unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its
own challenges.
By law, the constitution clearly states that
all revenue accrued to the FG be shared
amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone
makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR
to itself for whatever reason.
This is where the wahala started, during
GEJ's campaign, he astronomically
increased workers salary without
consulting the state Governors,most
Governors have refused to pay on the
grounds that they cannot afford it.
On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some
other states have a genuine case.With the
above development, the states started
scrambling for funds and remembered the
ECR and insisted it must be shared to
enable them pay the new wage and
develop infrastructures.
you now understand why all state
governors are for subsidy removal
including the literally "one of us" comrade
Adams oshiomole, because they know it
will be shared just like the ECR


The way forward:


In the short run:


All unions must ensure the FG, must
consider these options,

1, identify and tackle the corruption and
incompetence prevalent in the subsidy
regime above. That will push down the cost
of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said
in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think
his administration is, he cannot make any
reasonable progress in the face of
corruption,


2, the power projects must come upstream
before removing subsidy, this will reduce
the demand on pet. Products to a very
great extent.


3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export,
port duties and other forms of revenue in
their budget implementation policies.


4, Govt must never invest an extra kobo in
our moribund refineries, by doing
otherwise, the cost price of the refineries
will rise to an extent that it will no longer
be attractive to investors or will prolong
their repayment plan.Thereby making it
very capital intensive.


5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their
cabal bullshit and deluding them that they
don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG
should channel that propaganda with
intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and
civil society organizations to stop the state
governors from demanding for the ECR,
this can be achieved by the FG asking the
state to pay whatever increment they can
afford for the workers that way the ECR
will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.


In the long run:


Nigeria must seek local production
capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc
and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in
meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.
Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and
Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of
the above for oil and gas production
respectively, but as i write, the current
production of NPDC stands at a paltry
90,000bbl/ day which is a huge failure for
an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will
cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our
oil.

The Management of NPDC must be
reshuffled and if possible experts brought
in on contract basis to improve NPDC's
production.These experts must be placed
on targets appraised by milestones. in
ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a
lot of abandoned production facilities and
marginal wells and others scattered all over
the country, these can be bought by NPDC
with the money FG want to waste on
refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and
make a little profit, with this cheap oil
available, Nigeria will have no reason going
to the JV.

This cheap crude is what will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs against sanusi's pump price increase to attract investors and create another monster called INFLATION,
A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little
above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford
two of those only if NPDC can guarantee
cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming
to build refineries.
A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will
guarantee pump price of less than 22naira
per litre of pms from these refineries.With
this plan,By the end of this Administration,
NPDC will have robust production capacity
and the refineries will guarantee steady
refined products.
These refineries shouldn't be operated by
the Govt for any reason.The FG will
generate revenue from both ends, export
of crude and export refined products and
the production of NPDC must be
increasing periodically.
this is necessary because Nigeria as a
member of OPEC has a limit to crude
export but we can earn more revenue from
petroleum products export.
Once the above takes effect, there won’t
be any need to be paying subsidy because
pump price will be around 23naira/ l and
inflation will reduce by 40‰.
Now, how competent is Allison Madueke
and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

To think of removing subsidy at this stage
where there is no electricity and high
corruption rate will be tantamount to
economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using
trial and error approach to economic
solutions please try the next country or
preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of
inflation, the cost of running Govt projects
will be high, All Govt contractors will
definitely come back for contract variations
or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell
Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira
( she intends to save on subsidy removal)
in the face of 60% inflation and how many
projects Nigerians will benefit from the
subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and
the money disappears, then it is a NO NO
for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to
this economic quagmire.


I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the
subsidy regime and bring it down to
300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a
target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.
on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.
with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will
know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will
utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.

tell me what WE are sacrifising for today?
eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial
deregulation, it is more dangerous than
total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a
price regulatory agency who ordinarily
should put the markets and commuters on
check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is
not same as telecoms, we need structures
to support it which Nigeria have not got
unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for
mankind

Written by;

concerned oil and gas activists

can this explain why obasanjo's reforms could not improve our local production capacity after 23yrs of Npdc operation? madueke hijacked their oil wells.

madueke stole, accuse marketers (cabal) they kept quiet
madueke accuse them of fleecing the nation they kept quiet
madueke remove their subsidy, they kept quiet
madueke accuse them of sponsoring protests, marketers don vex

Jonathan I feel sorry for you. lol

hurray!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

victory for democracy


My fellow comrades,

I cannot but express my profound gratitude and solidarity to the NLC,TUC and other affiliate organizations.
We in the oil and gas sectors are solidly behind you.

Let me quickly introduce ourslves, we are a group of well meaning Nigerians in the oil and gas upstream sector who wish our voice to be heard in this battle to save Nigeria.

While we negotiate with the government, these perspectives must be adressed.

lets talk about this present day subsidy regime, the Cbn gov has already confessed he has evidence of round tripping , he said he paid subsidy on 15 fake vessels approved by customs.
what did jonathan do? nothing

the reasons investors did not build refineries over the years was lack of cheap crude but the biggest reason is corruption how?

licences were given to companies without the financial muscle to build refineries also part b of the license clearly states that these armed robbers have oil lifting license embedded in their refining license,
tell me who will choose refining over lifting where he makes instant profit and inflated subsidy
what did jonathan do? nothing as usual

do you know that NNPC does not have storage facilities for all those millions of products they are quoting and importing.
how exactly does Nnpc wish to store 30million litres of pms?

do you know that these fg goons went ahead to licence importers without storage facilities leading to the govt paying extra for storage on a product they are paying over 70 naira as subsidy can u beat this stup1dity and incompetence?

what did iweala and jonathan do? nothing,

do you know that these leppers in Nnpc have no grading structure for imported pms low grade,mid grade and high grade all are pms same subsidy, same price even ethanol blends have subsidy paid on them, can you beat that?

even abroad where the products come from have different prices. some are far cheaper than others which ordinarily should attract low subsidy
what did iweala do? nothing.



do you know that these bingos at Nnpc dont maintain their pipeline networks which ordinarily should link one depot to the other,
they have to pay extra for tankers transporting these products all are subsidies.

eventhough their foreign jv partners are maintaining over 1000 pipeline networks in Nigeria.

what did iweala do?
nothing.




do you know that under madueke's watch demurrage is paid as subsidy to these importers .
how cant they be reponsible for their import schedule?

is it not commonsensical for madueke to prioritize the discharge of those vessels quickly in tank farms as not to attract demurrage for a product you are subsidizing?

and they want us to tighten for a better future? which future ? can iweala,Sls and madueke plan for a sustainable future if given the task?
dead failures.

for every extra kobo you pay on pms you paid for madueke's incompetence.

now they can see high expenditure but cant see how their incompetence is inflating the subsidy regime.

Do u seriously think iweala will see it comming if it was true that economy will crash?

Let us analyze the genere and politics of these issues

There are more misnomers than facts surrounding this subsidy brouhaha.

First,

the Govt said the economy will collapse, ridiculous indeed secondly, the Govt said oil importers are a 'cabal', nearly fell off my seat.

Comrades, there are no cabals, in 2009 the scarcity of petroleum products became intense and the Govt admitted that Nnpc through its subsidiary PPMC has failed Nigerians by their inability to meet up with the supply of pet. Products and that phenomenon gave rise to licensing of some people to 'assist' the Nnpc in doing their job for which they are paid for.

Please don't forget that hitherto, Nnpc has been doing the importation and refining themselves before corruption eroded their common sense.

These importers went abroad and came back with a price Nnpc is already aware of comprising of logistics, storage and administrative costs, these were quantified before they arrived at a price.

The FG now fixed a price tag of 65naira on Pms and agreed to be reimbursing the importers the balance not oblivious of the fact that the landing cost is higher than the stipulated price

To my greatest chagrin, the Jonathan’s administration woke up and termed them 'cabals' who are fleecing the nation.

Assuming Ruben Abati goes abroad to buy a TM underwear for 1k and decides to sell it 1.5k adding purchase price  plus logistics plus profit and the Govt tells him to sell at 900 naira, wont he ask for the 600naira balance?  When the incompetent NNPC agrees to reimburse him, then he has become a cabal stealing from the GOvt?
We are not docile, If Nnpc lived up to their responsibility, we won’t have need for the importers in the first place.There is no doubt that the subsidy regime is met with corrupt practices, is it not the responsibility of the govt to clamp down on those malfeasance?

the Governor of central bank confessed  during the town hall meeting that he paid subsidy to 15 fake vessels who connived with customs to falsify their papers.
is this not fierce corruption?
and we have a shameless commander in chief? by the way, how many naval officers patrol our waters on tax payers account? efcc,icpc etc

The only solution that came to the minds of this disgruntled PDP administration is to remove subsidy into-to not minding its inflationary consequences.

This is the si1liest approach any human being with brain if they have one can summon.

Thirdly,

Jonathan insulted the intelligence of Nigerians telling us  that we don't benefit from this subsidy except for the importers and he had the unbridled temerity to be advertising it on NTA saying the rich are getting richer.

This people are demons.
When Ruben abiati's mother goes to the market to buy vegetable at a price, does he not know that the seller included cost of transportation to that price?
So when the transporter buys PMS @ 65naira and fixes his price based on that, he says his mother did not benefit from the subsidy that guaranteed the price in the first place?


In a generator driven economy like ours?
It is either Ruben Abiati and his employers are drunks or they think that Nigerians are m0rons.

I feel sorry for people that think that competition will crash the deregulated price erroneously juxtaposing it with GSM.

Do you know that the price of crude being the raw material for refined pet. Products are sold at the same price world overl?

If you agree to this, then, even if you deregulate and license 5million importers the product will still be expensive because crude itself is expensive.

You will still need to subsidize it to 65naira, exactly why deregulation of diesel in part did not work.The only reason you have not bought diesel @ 200naira is because there are so many illegal refineries who bunker crude, settle JTF and refine diesel at a lower price.

This people still pose a great threat to the importers who buy at a higher price that is why you get diesel @ 140naira elsewhere but in the delta i buy as low as 70naira.At this verge you will not over rule the fact that these unscrupulous elements contribute to the availability of diesel, if you are in doubt, anywhere you see cheap diesel, ask the dealer the source of his consignment If he is honest he will tell you the truth, when i was told, i took an hr 20mins boat ride to a remote village in the delta between Belema and Kola communities and i saw the local refinery myself.

Conduct a chemical test on those cheap diesels if you are not convinced and you will realize a lot of additives are missing.Sounds incredible but those are the realities on ground.You now know why many importers in the delta hardly have diesel.

I still feel sorry for those who think the Govt should build more refineries, that will not solve the problem either because there is no cheap crude to supply these refineries.

Do you know that even the petroleum products from our present refineries at a disappointing capacity attract subsidy?
that is what Sanusi is not telling Nigerians.

This Sanusi's buisness model of increasing local price to attract investors is misleading. He should ask himself why so many buisnesses left the USA for Asia and Arrica between 1998 till 2008.

The reason was because cost of doing buisness in America was high so there was need to tap into Africa's cheap land and asia's cheap labour.

If you increase the pump price the spiral inflation will discourage investors, you pay high for land,labour,enegy etc.
A brief insight in Nigeria's oil and gas model gives us a better outlook

The oil production of Nigeria stands at 2.37 million barrels of crude daily. Nigeria get this crude in a JV (joint venture) with IOC's (international oil companies) and the Nigeria's cut stand btw 55% to 60% of the lot, if we go by 60% then, that gives a total of 1.4m barrels daily.If we average the crude price from 2009 till date, the price falls close to 100usd/bbl.In that case, Nigeria makes 140,000,000usd daily from this JV.

Nigeria has a policy called DSO (domestic supply obligation) which mandates 250,000bbl/d of this crude to be refined and consumed locally,In monetary terms, the Nigerian govt is giving us 25,000,000usd worth of crude to refine.

Our three refineries at optimum capacity utilizes about 450,000bbl/d which gives 45,000,000usd in monetary terms in other words, the price of raw material in this case, crude, accrued to our refineries comes at 45m usd per day

, if you add refining cost and profit of 6usd per bbl,The total cost becomes 270,000,000usd per day.There is no way you can refine that crude at that price and sell it 65naira/l and make profit.

Meanwhile, once we mark out that 45m usd worth of crude for our refineries (assuming they are working at optimum capacity), the govt has already lost 45m usd from their 140m usd daily earnings (which will affect budget implementation) and after refining will still spend more money to subsidize it to 65naira/l
(you now understand why NNPC subsidizes the products from our refineries)

With this analogy, you will agree with me that if all our refineries are working optimally, the govt will spend 3times our present day subsidy to bring the pump price down to 65naira/l.

So, for those of you clamoring for refineries should be careful what you wish for because there is no cheap crude for you to refine.

I have argued abinitio that the sales of other derivatives of crude will bring down the cost of most sort PMS,DPK etc but after doing some feasibility studies, i realized i was dead wrong.

I further argued that to make cheaper crude available for our refineries, the Govt should reduce the price at which it is supplied unfortunately, the senate mandated the then GMD of Nnpc that the DSO must be sold at international crude price.

This i believe was proposed for the following reasons:

1 the refineries are working below capacity so what the heck does Nnpc use the crude for?

2, there is a benchmark on crude price for budget implementation.With these reasons, any existing or yet to exist refinery in Nigeria will get crude at a high price and must need subsidy to sell at 65naira/l, at this cross road, the then GMD of Nnpc decided that all crude should be exported and subsidy be paid on imported products.

At this verge, i must reiterate here that competition amongst importers will only crash the profit margin but not cost price.Even if every Nigerian becomes an importer of pet. Prods, we can never change the fact that crude in the int l market is already expensive before thinking of refined prod. So we must need subsidy to make profit.

Before this issue of subsidizing petroleum products can be addressed,You must have the following at the back of your minds:

1, Nigeria pegs a benchmark on crude prices to enable it implement budget. This stands at 75usd/bbl. And this crude is sort from the JV

.2, if crude price exceed the benchmark above, Nigeria makes excess crude revenue (ECR)3, conversely, if we make excess crude revenue, the price of subsidy on refined products shoot up.With the above analogy,

One can argue that the ECR be used to subsidize imported petroleum products since both are a function of each other unfortunately in Nigeria, it comes with its own challenges.

By law, the constitution clearly states that all revenue accrued to the FG be shared amongst the three tiers of Govt.This alone makes it illegal for the FG to keep the ECR to itself for whatever reason.

This is where the wahala started, during GEJ's campaign, he astronomically increased workers salary without consulting the state Governors,most Governors have refused to pay on the grounds that they cannot afford it.

On that grounds Taraba, jigawa and some other states have a genuine case.With the above development, the states started scrambling for funds and remembered the ECR and insisted it must be shared to enable them pay the new wage and develop infrastructures.

you now understand why all state governors are for subsidy removal including the literally "one of us"  comrade Adams oshiomole, because they know it will be shared just like the ECR

The way forward:

In the short run:

All unions must ensure the FG, must consider these options,

1,  identify and tackle the corruption and incompetence prevalent in the subsidy regime above. That will push down the cost of the subsidy in the first place.Like i said in April, no matter how sincere GEJ think his administration is, he cannot make any reasonable progress in the face of corruption,

2, the power projects must come upstream before removing subsidy, this will reduce the demand on pet. Products to a very great extent.

3, Nigeria must accommodate Gas export, port duties and other forms of revenue in their budget implementation policies.

4,  Govt must never invest an extra kobo in our moribund refineries, by doing otherwise, the cost price of the refineries will rise to an extent that it will no longer be attractive to investors or will prolong their repayment plan.Thereby making it very capital intensive.

5, Instead of deceiving Nigerians with their cabal bullshit and deluding them that they don't benefit from this subsidy, the FG should channel that propaganda with intense lobbying to the senate,NLC and civil society organizations to stop the state governors from demanding for the ECR, this can be achieved by the FG asking the state to pay whatever increment they can afford for the workers that way the ECR will be used for subsidizing pet. Products.

In the long run:

Nigeria must seek local production capacity.It is no longer news that Nnpc and its subsidiaries have failed woefully in meeting the needs of the Nigerian people.

Nnpc through its subsidiaries Npdc and Ngc are saddled with the responsibility of the above for oil and gas production respectively, but as i write, the current production of NPDC stands at a paltry 90,000bbl/day which is a huge failure for an agency set up 23yrs ago,

The IOC's has made us believe that it will cost less than 12usd to extract 1bbl of our oil. The Management of NPDC must be reshuffled and if possible experts brought in on contract basis to improve NPDC's production.These experts must be placed on targets appraised by milestones. in ogoni land for instance, Anglo dutch has a lot of abandoned production facilities and marginal wells and others scattered all over the country, these can be bought by NPDC with the money FG want to waste on refineries to improve production,

If NPDC can extract oil at 12usd/bbl and make a little profit, with this cheap oil available, Nigeria will have no reason going to the JV.

This cheap crude will attract investors to build refineries and create jobs, A 250,000bbl/d refinery will cost a little above 5b usd, dangote alone can afford two of those only if NPDC can guarantee cheap oil. This is why no investor is coming to build refineries.

A crude price of 18usd/bbl from NPDC will guarantee pump price of less than 22naira per litre of pms from these refineries.With this plan,By the end of this Administration, NPDC will have robust production capacity and the refineries will guarantee steady refined products.

These refineries shouldn't be operated by the Govt for any reason.The FG will generate revenue from both ends, export of crude and export refined products and the production of NPDC must be increasing periodically.

this is necessary because Nigeria as a member of OPEC has a limit to crude export but we can earn more revenue from petroleum products export.

Once the above takes effect, there won’t be any need to be paying subsidy because pump price will be around 23naira/l and inflation will reduce by 40‰.

Now, how competent is Allison Madueke and iweala if they can’t figure this out?

 To think of removing subsidy at this stage where there is no electricity and high corruption rate will be tantamount to economic suicide.

I cant believe iweala and sanusi are using trial and error approach to economic solutions please try the next country or preferably Haiti.

What iweala forgot is that in the face of inflation, the cost of running Govt projects will be high, All Govt contractors will definitely come back for contract variations or Abandon those projects.

As a sound economist, she should tell Nigerians the value of 1.3 trillion naira ( she intends to save on subsidy removal) in the face of 60% inflation and how many projects Nigerians will benefit from the subsidy removal.If you remove subsidy and the money disappears, then it is a NO NO for Nigerians.

Now, let us analyze possible solutions to this economic quagmire.

I have a deal for iweala.


fight corruption and inefficiencies in the subsidy regime and bring it down to 300billion for this year.

The management of Npdc must have a target
of 150,000bbl/d by dec 2012.

on january 2013 subsidy will go by 50%
and by dec 2013 Npdc should guarantee
200,000bbl/d on

1st january 2014 subsidy must go 100%.

with or without the refineries on ground,
then if Nigerians are sacrificing, they will know it has a
limit pending when refineries that will utilize the cheap oil on ground arrives.
tell me what im sacrifising for today? eternal slavery?

I and my generations cannot and will not
sacrifice for Govt's incompetence.

All unions should never accept partial deregulation, it is more dangerous than total deregulation because Nigeria hasn't a price regulatory agency who ordinarily should put the markets and commuters on check.

Deregulation in the down stream sector is not same as telecoms, we need structures to support it which Nigeria have not got unlike the later.

God bless you as you fight this battle for mankind

Written by;

President concerned oil and gas activists