₦airaland Forum

izzou:
[color=royalblue]I did not say all Northern states would vote for Atiku.

I only said if Tinubu doesn't have a strong political vice, he might just be gifting the seat to Atiku.

Buhari has always won the North in 2003,2007, and 2011. He (Buhari) has always been a force to reckon with, not the party.

There is no guarantee that Northerners would queue behind Tinubu and leave Atiku. There is none. MKO's case was exceptional. He won all over the country because everybody was tired of the Military regime.

So, can you now take it from here, sir? [/color]

You still are not getting the koko of the matter. There’s no guarantee that the North will queue behind Atiku and not Tinubu or any Southern candidate. Atiku has no cult followership in the North.

There’s no basis to say “Atiku will win Northern votes because he’s a Northerner”. There’s no electoral basis that prove it.

In your own words “Buhari has always being a force to reckon with” but he lost 2003,2007 and 2011 election despite winning in the core northern states. What then makes you believe Atiku that does not have half of Buhari cult followership in the North will sweep the northern votes?

Abiola case was not exceptional, it only showed that Northerners know how to play politics more than those of us down south. Abiola defeated Tofa in his home state of Kano and that was made possible by the party he belong to.

I’ll say it again, PDP will lose gallantly if they present Atiku as their candidate.

Ibime:
Just remember us when you get your delegate package bros!

I never reach delegate level.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]But Atiku already said he would still pick Peter Obi as his Vice if he gets the ticket

Or will they leave him and vote Tinubu and Dogara/Mustapha/Elrufai?

I just dey ask[/color]

First tell me why you think all the Northern States will vote for Atiku including the 11 states that have APC Governors.

We’ll take it from there.

raumdeuter:
Baba lets be honest Atiku and any PDP candidate will sweep SE and SS. Even if Kabiru Sokoto is the candidate
The APC pathway to winning is to sweep SW and get majority of the Northern vote. By majority I mean 70% to balance the disadvantage in SS and SE
Buhari is the strongest APC candidate ever and he barely won two times about 55% of votes even when he was incumbent and had the treasury and power of incumbency. Everyone else is inferior to Buhari in electability so how will the Math work?

Atiku is the worst case scenario candidate for APC unless Buhari is ready to sanction full time rigging bribery and thuggery for them

Again, what most of you are doing is just scratching the surface. You really don’t follow Nigeria politics like that.

GEJ won in 2011 because Northerners wanted him to complete Yar Adua tenure and then revert the position back to the North since it will mean the Southern part has ruled for 13years from 1999-2015. GEJ renegade on that agreement and that’s the reason a lot of Northerners who are even PDP members worked against GEJ election in 2015.

The same scenario will play out again if PDP zone their ticket to the North. A lot of Southern PDP guys will revolt and work against the party. Na confirm.

And it’s funny how almost all of you say the South East will vote Atiku. A lot of South East and IPOB slogan has been Fulani and born to rule and then you guys just automatically assume the same SE will turn around and vote for another Fulani man en masse.

APC has 11 Governors in the North compared to PDP 4 but somehow Atiku will sweep the Northern votes and sweep the SE.

Make we just dey laugh dey go.

I really want PDP to give Atiku the ticket sha.

At least some doubt will be cleared.

Ibime:
Oga unless Buhari shows interest in the bribery exercise needed to get a Southern candidate over the line, APC cannot win with a Southern candidate.

The only two Southern Candidates to win election had massive Federal backing (bribery and Governor's support) with the exception of MKO

Atiku beats Tinubu and Osinbajo in both South East and North

Lmao. I won’t even try and explain anything again.

Whatever you say big man.

Ibime:
If Atiku wins PDP primary, he will win the Presidency

APC is not presenting a candidate Northerners can back

Lmao.

It’s obvious most of you here do not follow how election or politics in the country is being run.

Buhari who is more popular and has cult followership in the North contested 4 times before becoming President. No northern candidate has the kind of following Buhari has in the North yet he lost in 2003,2007 and 2011.

In those 3 losses, 2 were Southerners OBJ and GEJ.

If PDP field Atiku, they will lose scandalously in the South while APC will pick up states in the North easily.

This idea that Northerners only vote for Northerners should be trashed into the dustbin. It has no basis in our electoral history.

Havertz10:
that assumption isn't unfounded, asides rivers state, I can't think of another geopolitical region that has felt the influence of wike and this claim that he has been funding pdp is hearsay, if he held such sway, he would be the defacto aspirant

Of course, I agree with you. He has no clout that’s why he was able to install PDP chairman back to back.

Just like saying Tinubu should’ve been the defacto aspirant because of his influence on the party.

ShadowWalker00:
Saraki will do better than Obi in the primaries, even Pius Anyim will do better than Obi ..

Doyin Okupe go help am chop the small Pandora money wey dey hin hand .

Of course, Saraki will do better than Obi at the primaries but he’s not winning the PDP ticket.

Saraki wey don buy Senate form just in case.

donstan18:
Wike has a lot of enemies and less support within, same can’t be said of Obi.

I dey Rivers and I know Wetin I dey tell you.

He’s just a noisemaker, a local champion who don’t even have support of Rivers state political godfathers.

Should the contest become a Peter Obi and Wike thing, it’ll be an easy win for Obi. A very big easy win.

Ok sir.

Wike has been funding PDP since 2015 and building his structure all over the country.

Man has produced the national chairman of the party back to back but some people still think na local champion.

Jokers.

donstan18:
It’s between Atiku and Atiku.

Should anyone come close, it’ll be Peter Obi.

Wike no get level Oga. Na local champion, Make una rest.

If Wike is local champion in PDP, Peter Obi is what?

Peter Obi can’t even boost of Anambra PDP delegates.

ShadowWalker00:
I sha like as everybody is hyping Atiku , not Peter Obi.

Cause I know if anybody will win that Pdp primaries it can never be Obi China. He won't even be top 3 .

Everybody knows it is between Wike, Atiku, and Saraki .

Which Saraki? Kwara own?

BlueRayDick:
Well, let’s wait and see where the pendulum swings but I’m very much confident Atiku will surely get the ticket if it becomes a contest between him and Wike ( Not like I wish any of them to become Nigeria’s president tho )

Atiku will definitely focus on states where PDP has no sitting governors like Lagos, Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, etc and he will surely buy the delegates over there . There’s no structure Wike can claim to have in such states and Atiku will still drag the states with sitting governors with him sef

Now you are talking.

VillageHustle:
Same Atiku that "used dollars" to win the PDP ticket in 2018 which Peter Obi was the VP candidate is now being criminalised by Peter Obi fanatics . Peter Obi is most likely unable to get a majority vote from the delegates in his home state, so how can someone like that win the majority in the overall primary election? He is very much invisible in grassroot politics.

Controlling the party structure like Larride said is what can guarantee any aspirant victory as we can see how it went with the just concluded APC's Congress elections. Delegates vote according to their interest not by who paid the most money for votes.

Correct

BlueRayDick:
Again I was talking about 2018 u are talking about 2014. Atiku learnt from his mistakes in 2014 and bought enough delegate votes in 2018 to clinch PDP ticket back then.

Presidential election is different from governorship or lawmakers primaries .

Bros I am a party member at the ward level, if you know how delegates are selected, you won’t be saying this.

Atiku can only buy delegates who have no clear aspirants to support. If those who own the party structure have interest in a candidate, they will pick delegates that will dance to their tune.

Atiku spent money in 2014 also, it just couldn’t swing the party ticket away from those that own the structure.

BlueRayDick:
This is not 1993. I’m talking of what I experienced in the north in 2014.

Northern Muslims do not see southern Muslims as one and same. Try ask Muslims of southern origin who reside in the north.

Okay Chief.

BlueRayDick:
The 2018 PDP primary election is still fresh in memory. Some delegates got as much as $9,000 to make them cast their vote for the highest bidder . 50% of Kano Delegates voted Atiku uneven when Kwankwanso was on the ballot.

It is the person who control the party structure that wins primary.

Don’t forget Atiku came 3rd in APC primaries in 2014 even with his money.

BlueRayDick:
Northerners do not regard Southern Muslims the way they regard northern Muslims. (That is to put it mild and not sound offensive to some persons )

I have seen it play out in a north western state before

Again Northerners don’t play politics the way we do down South.

Abiola a Southern Muslim won in Kano, Kaduna, Jigawa, Taraba even Yobe against a Kano man Tofa.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]An Atiku contesting against Buhari is different from An Atiku against Tinubu

The scorecard cannot be the same

My brother, Nigerians are tribalistic and would pick their tribe first.

When e reach to vote, a Northerner go pick him fellow northerner first. The same goes for other tribes

That's why Tinubu needs a powerful Northern politician, or he can kiss that region goodbye [/color]

God keep us alive, we will come back to this discussion after the candidates are known and after the election proper.

Nezzjnr:
Tinubu might just go for Dogara finally

Bauchi APC will most likely not agree.

That man has shown he can betray his party for his ambition, he won’t be picked for Vice.

Nobody want a repeat of OBJ/Atiku.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]It matters to an extent.

If a Northerner needs votes from the South, he's expecting his choice of Vice president to market him. A nobody as vice can spell disaster for his train

If Tinubu is to wrestle the North from Atiku, he needs a powerful vice. A Muslim one to be honest.

Make we dey watch sha[/color]

He does not need a powerful vice to win votes from the North.

Tinubu himself is a Muslim. All he has to do is present a Northerner that has no baggage and he will get their votes.

Northerners do not play politics the way we do down south.

BlueRayDick:
Delegates don’t vote for their governors at primaries , they vote for their pockets. Most delegates will vote Atiku because of his deep pockets.

No be today Atiku start to dey share dollars for delegates. If it comes to open contest between Wike and Atiku , Wike would not even get 40% of the total delegate votes sef

LOL

Nezzjnr:
He doesn't have a Major name in the North.

SW won't even look at him twice

Almost all the state chairmen in the South are from his caucus.

Delegate politics is different from what we are saying here.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]PDP's chance of ousting Tinubu (If he wins the ticket), is to present a Northerner.

No Southerner can politically challenge Tinubu. Let's be sincere

Atiku can win part of the north and the SE easily. The SW can donate to him too.

Which part of Nigeria would Wike win if he has the ticket? Rivers and....?

Apart from the fact that he can't even win the ticket, PDP won't be stupid to give it to him.[/color]

Anybody from the SW that wins APC ticket will win the SW with bloc votes.

Atiku is not that very popular with the massive northern voting bloc. He even won Adamawa his own state with less than 40k votes.

What will help Atiku in the North is running under PDP. He doesn’t have any cult followership to get bloc votes on his own.

izzou:
[color=royalblue]That one has been asslicking him naa. It is never going to be in vain.

I don't think any Northern Christian is strong enough to pull votes for Tinubu. Na Elrufai e go pick.

That's why I said that APC may be gifting Atiku the seat on a platter of gold[/color]

One thing most of you don’t understand is that the Vice doesn’t matter in the long scheme of things. Picking Vice from the North is just going to be to fulfil fairness and equity.

The main koko is the Presidential candidate not Vice.

Nezzjnr:
Tinubu won't be that Foolish to make Elrufai his running mate.

It might be Dogara though

Maybe Boss Mustapha. The current SGF. He’s a Christian from Adamawa.

The only problem is that he’s from the AC/ACN caucus also same as where the Presidential candidate will come from.

izzou:
[color=royalblue] Nigeria has 36 states

Only 15 states are controlled by PDP (let me even dash you Adamawa even though we know na Atiku boy)

In a Primary where delegates from the whole country would vote, you are banking on the directives of 14 governors. What about the remaining 22 states?

If there's one person that won't smell the ticket, it's Wike.

Forget the interviews and noise he's making, when e reach to share dollars, we go know who get Bureau de change[/color]

You are forgetting a small detail that Wike installed the new chairman of the party after removing Secondus that he installed before.

Most of the party structures in those states are in the hands of party men.

Wike has plenty money to contest. Plenty Rivers State money.

Nezzjnr:
Why will one think that Wike will stand a chance in the PDP primaries .

Baba would have just gone for Senate House.

Why do you think he doesn’t stand a chance?

Nezzjnr:
Who then will be a strong contender in the PDP

Most of them aren't heavyweight names

They might not be heavyweights like that but PDP has a wide reach and there are lot of people that will vote for PDP as a party.

That automatically makes their candidate a heavyweight.

raumdeuter:
Atiku will get the PDP ticket

Your concern now should be how to navigate Tinubu vs Osinbajo and the potential fallout

Tinubu wins ticket, which Northern Xtian he wan pick wey fit get votes, Abi he wan run Moslem-Moslem ticket?

Osinbajo wins ticket, He has the better chance of winning but how will Tinubu camp handle it?

2023

Atiku/Obi vs Osinbanjo/Northern Moslem or Tinubu/Northern Xtian

You are forgetting one key point which is Tinubu is a Muslim. Getting votes from Northerners won’t be the problem.

Muslim/Muslim ticket won’t happen.

The deciding factor is the Presidential candidate. Not the Vice. Nobody knows Osibanjo in 2014/2015 and it can’t be said that it was because of Osibanjo that Buhari won the states he won in the SW in 2015.

If Tinubu wins the ticket, he will most likely pick a Christian from the North East or if push comes to shove from the North West.

Nezzjnr:
I really want to see how the primaries will turn out.

Don't you think Pdp stands a very good chance if they field a northerner like Atiku

I doubt it. Atiku will most likely not get the ticket but even if he does, he won’t win. He blew his chance of being a President when he settled with OBJ in 2003 when he had the party structure in his hand.

Northerners know how to play this politics.