₦airaland Forum

meelerh:
So govt in Nigeria cannot handle anything or anything it's d new way of diverting funds

The biggest airports in the world are concessioned. Heathrow and Gatwick in the UK, JFK in the US. They are not run directly by government.

thundafire:
At least he got served as breakfast to sharks

Did u read d post?

majekdom2:
Oil will be around but for a short time. I am not sure there will be 100 dollar per barrel oil again. I am

I am not sure there will ever be 75 dollar oil sef, 100 is never happening. Except there is a major war that threatens supply in the middle east. The rate at which oil is being discovered is more than the rate at which it is being depleted due technological breakthrough in shale and deepwater

If there is one singular event in history that we can say has greatly shaped the oil industry, it has to be the popularization of the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) by the automotive industry. At the turn of the 20th century, Wood and coal were the dominant sources of energy, together accounting for 90 percent of the global energy consumption. This was however cut short in 1910 when the automotive revolution set off by Henry T Ford increased the demand for liquid fuels, which in turn made the global demand for crude oil to more than double every decade. So inevitably, crude oil had to dethrone coal and wood as the number 1 source of energy globally. Continued growth in the transport sector ever since has seen the world’s oil companies make huge gains and if we go by the analysis these companies have published, they expect the status quo to remain. But would the status quo really remain? Oil prices have been down these past few years following the advent of shale oil which has led to a glut in the market, but the prices are even set for further ruffling as Electric cars enter the fray.

Electric cars are increasingly becoming popular by the day. Just some few days ago Tesla unveiled its latest model of electric cars, Volvo has announced that from 2019 going forward gasoline-only cars would not be manufactured by it, Uk, France & India have all given deadlines to ban the use of fossil powered cars, Australia just announced 2 days ago that it is building the world’s longest highway dedicated to electric vehicles. So, all in all, ICE cars are being threatened, and if ICE cars are threatened, global oil demand is threatened and if global oil demand is threatened, oil price is threatened.


Impact of electric vehicles on global oil demand

The global oil demand stands at roughly about 98mb/d in 2017. Cars account for about 20Mb/d of the 98Mb/d global consumption. This represents about one-fifth or 20 percent of the global oil demand. The global car fleet is around 1.2 billion cars presently. Of this, there are more than 2 million electric vehicles on the world’s roads now. The market share of EVs is about 0.00167 percent which is somewhat insignificant.

Now let us project to 5 years from now, 2022. Bloomberg predicts that by 2022, EVs will cost the same as their Internal Combustion counterparts. The major reason why EVs are costly is because of the battery. Battery cost makes up a third of the total cost of an EV. Battery costs have been coming down and the trend is expected to continue. BP, ExxonMobil and other analysts have predicted increased global demand for oil at a rate of roughly 0.7 percent pa. This means that by 2022, Global daily demand for oil will stand at about 137mb/d. The total number of cars on the roads by 2022 are also expected to increase from around 1.2 billion in 2017 to 1.35 billion by 2022. By this time, EVs on the roads would be around 40 million. (I think it may be more if we go by the policies of India, France, UK and increasing popularity of EVs in Norway, Netherlands and China, which has the largest market share of EVs). So, 40 million out of 1.35 billion is still less than 1 percent, but the percentage has risen from 0.00167 to 0.03 percent.

Let us even take it further, say 2030-2040. The number of cars on the world’s roads would be 1.8 to 2 billion cars. Analysts have estimated that by 2040, EVs will represent 35% of new light duty vehicle sales, hitting 41 million vehicles sold. So, by 2035-2040, BP and IEA expect the number of EVs on the roads to be between 100-400 million cars (which could be much higher). In fact, Bloomberg predicts that if current growth rate of EVs is maintained, 2 mb/d of oil would be displaced by 2023. 2 million barrels per day is the current glut in the market today.

The rate at which EVs penetrate the auto market depends on a number of factors.

1. The improvement in the fuel economy of vehicles. Car manufacturers have improved Fuel economy of manufactured vehicles as a result of tightening of fuel economy standards. If manufacturers continue to improve on fuel economy, then consumers are likely to tilt towards conventional cars.

2. The pace at which battery prices continue to fall. Analysts have predicted that battery prices are set to fall and this will make EVs more affordable progressively each year.

3. Size and durability of Government incentives/Policies as in the case of China, India, UK and France.

4. Another key factor is Consumer preference toward EVs or internal combustion engines.

MY Take
Just to emphasize, my analysis is based on an oil price of 50 dollars because if oil goes to say 20 or 10 dollars, then it will phase out EV mass production due to lower gasoline and fuel prices.
• Oil companies face a negative threat from growth of EVs. Widespread adoption can lead to mass hysteria as investors will panic and try to sell out of oil companies. This will make debt and equity much more expensive and low investment means companies may find it harder to finance projects.
• Rising incomes & improved road infrastructure will give rise to the number of cars increasing to 1.8 billion by 2035. However, improvements in the area of fuel economy means that growth in the number of cars will not necessarily mean increased global liquid fuel consumption. In fact, it is estimated that improvements in fuel efficiency/economy will cut global demand by 17mb/d by 2035 (BP). This is because car manufacturers face pressures and tightening standards due to emission issues (Volkswagen diesel-gate is an example).
• Between 2025-2040, EVs will displace about 13mb/d of oil from the global market. But this also means 2700Twh of Electricity will be needed to achieve that. This will give rise to new electric power generation plants that will be majorly dependent on natural gas to drive them. So, this loss of 13mb/d of liquid fuels will be gain for gas. Could this be a major blow for the refining sector?
• About 1 billion people in the earth presently do not have access to electricity, most of them from Africa. With population expected to increase and GDP to even double between now and 2040, there will be a major demand for electricity. New homes will be built in Africa, China and developing Asia which would be powered by electricity. I expect Nigeria (the most populous country in Africa) to lead the development of power infrastructure within the next decade to meet its power requirements. It will be unwise not to consider gas-powered plants since Nigeria has more gas than oil. This in turn means more demand for sources of energy like oil, gas, coal and Nuclear. Now, rising income and GDP coupled with population growth globally will mean more air travel, more cargo to be shipped in order to meet growing demands. I personally think that the 13mb/d displaced liquids may be offset by the demand for liquid fuels to power cargo ships and passenger planes. Surely, there isn’t about to be electric ships or planes, is it? Increased Industrialization in India, China, Asia and Africa will also mean increased demand for energy.
• The decision by UK, France, and India to sell EVs by the next decade will mean Africa/developing Asia will serve as a ‘dump ground’ for conventional cars because let us face it, I don’t see any African government banning the sale of conventional cars in the near future. This reason, coupled with rising income and prosperity, population increase, better roads infrastructure and relative low cost of the conventional vehicles due to glut across these regions will mean more people owning conventional cars. I foresee Africa being one of the largest markets for ICE cars in the near future.
• The efficiency of the ICE is its biggest advantage. EVs are yet to match the efficiency of ICEs and only time will tell if they can. Moreover, a good number of EVs in the next decade or 2 will still be hybrids (meaning they will be powered by both electric and liquid energy) so even at that, liquid fuels will still be used as an alternative for hybrid EVs.
Importantly, I am looking forward to seeing how the independent E&P companies, The Nigerian state owned NNPC, NLNG and downstream companies like Oando, MRS and the likes respond to this in terms of their long-term targets and investments. Also, if Africa becomes a big market for Conventional cars in the near future, does it signify huge gains for Dangote Refinery? What about the 3 state-owned refineries and modular refineries? What is their future? How well positioned are the NLNG and the Federal government to benefit from increased demand of natural gas in decades to come (that’s an article for another day)? Most importantly, do you think that EVs will lead to the next oil crisis? What is your take?


Kudos to Bloomberg, ExxonMobil,BP,OPEC,IEA & FT for the relevant data. I consulted them for my piece

Thats a viper (puff adder i blv) not a python.

Ok. Well, saying no to him isn't the ryt thn (since ikorodu is ur main concern). You could have told him ur fears. This same thn u wrote here, u could have discussed it with him and let him know u can't move to ikorodu cos of security and ur biz. He should be reasonable. If after discussing and he is bent on ikorodu, u can decide.

After yorubas will be claiming sophisticated. That they have good brains that's why they succeed with yahoo. come see master. Chai

Iamwrath:
Yeah, i did , Since 2011 , they wouldn't have paid it anyways if not for the current administration, or maybe it would have been paid into a non existent bank account like several other subsidy monies, but i guess you won't ever agree with me , so goodbye ,

Bros, The money was paid in 32 instalments starting from 2011. i followed the story. the last batch was paid in march this year. Its not like they paid the 450 Billion once. and for your info, it was paid into the FG account. Whether politicians withdrew it for their pockets is another thing entirely.

Iamwrath:
I trust the former administration wouldn't have bothered NNPC and that amount would have been shared


Jonathan was a disgrace

did u read the part thats said the FG in 2011 thru the FAAC asked NNPC to return the funds? I guess Jona wasnt in power in 2011 or maybe you didnt bother to read and u rushed here to comment

LePrezident:
She's still your best friend? You're for real

Best friend, and yet bestie never got to meet any of her subsequent bfs and yet she remains bestie. Follow me surprise for am o

Ezechinwa:
smh.
1960 was too soon to gain independence, its obvious we don't know how to govern ourselves.
She wasn't sentenced by a judge, yet she spent more than 60days in prison.

Your not guilty until proven guilty...

Politicians who steal public funds are free..

Nna get ur facts right. She was granted bail by the court buh she couldn't fulfill her bail conditions (like seun egbegbe). She couldn't get the sureties to sign for her so she had to be remanded in prison. That's why she stayed this long

Ur argument is flawed. There are Hausas and Fulanis in the east and they are Muslims. However, if u r sayn that it's igbos that fill up d mosques in d east, then u r delusional. The percentage of igbos who are Muslims are less than 2 percent. So ur topic should have been percentage of igbo Muslims in the south east, Not percentage of muslims(which includes yorubas, Fulanis, hausas and igbos)

Justuceleague2:
Police removing trash shouldn't be in the news

but u opened the thread about trash and had the energy to comment about trash like you have been doing all ur life. if it makes u sleep better at nyt, then u can blv it is trash

AFONAMARO:
Say only what you know. Oceanic bank and intercontinental bank were not just solid, but firm and making great profits. Mind you, Oceanic bank was the best paying bank then whereas intercontinental bank was winning the best brand back to back.

Those banks and their MD's were victimised because of personal beef. The then CBN governor and his team felt they have had enough just because certain MD's like Tony Elumelu, Jim Ovia, Erastus Akingbola and Cecilia Ibru have been at the helm of affairs even when the then CBN governor just just joined banking.

Did you ask yourself what led to the then CBN governor emerging as one even though he has just been appointed an MD of first bank a couple of months earlier?

Same way the same cartel saw that Soludo was removed as CBN governor to ensure someone ready to fight their dirty fight emerged to paint the aforementioned. But since they couldn't get the big fishes(Jim & Elumelu) Cecilia became the sacrificial lamb.

Hope you are equally aware that till date they could not convict Akingbola or point out his wrongs? Rather they hurriedly sold a whole intercontinental bank for 16b to a man owing same intercontinental 17b.

Now, who is fooling who?

Bros you are right. Aig and Wigwe Used Sanusi to set up Akingbola. The point is that Tony frustrated Sanusi out of UBA. so Sanusi wanted to pay him and Jim Ovia back. Its unfortunate Cecilia was the scapegoat. As for doz access bank guys that bought over intercontinental even though they were owing him, i dont know what to say

missyadorable:
I suspect it's a stolen car.
I pity the greedy person who will buy it

I don't think it's stolen, otherwise the op wont be foolish to display the reg no of the car. I think somethn is realy wrong with the car

TheLogicalMind:
NCAN REPORT FOR DUTY

BUT I WANT TO POINT SOMETHING OUT: THE TERM "AFONJA" WHICH IS ALWAYS BANDIED AROUND ON NL SHOULD NOT BE MADE TO APPLY TO ALL YORUBAS BECAUSE TO DO SO BELIES THE HISTORY BEHIND THE NAME.

HISTORICALLY, AFONJA WAS A YORUBA MUSLIM WHO BETRAYED HIS RACE TO THE FULANIS AND BECAUSE OF HIS TREACHERY, ILORIN WHICH WAS ONCE A YORUBA CITY BECAME A FULANI CITY WITH AN EMIR.

SO TECHNICALLY, ONLY YORUBA MUSLIMS QUALIFY AS "AFONJAS." THESE ONES IN THIS STORY ARE CRIMINALS QUITE ALL RIGHT, BUT IT WOULD BE WRONG TO LABEL THEM AS AFONJAS.

Same way yorubas here label all igbos as Ipobs

Jaideyone:
mtchew Olodo is an area in Ibadan. Odo means mortar. Olodo means mortar seller not the Olodo you are thinking.


stupid @ss thread

*pulls pants and sh*its on thread*

Wow, Odo means mortar in igbo lang too. Akaodo means pestle

kestolove95:
Igbo don kill dix small swet guy bcox him head shape no be like dia own....the guy looks like igala from kogi

Compare what you wrote with what every other person on this thread has written. Sometimes I wonder how people reason and think.

naijababe:
Why do Nigerians do this? He has a an Igbo name but probably does not identify with Nigeria
+1 for the black community in the US though.

He doesn't have to identify with Nigeria. He is an Ibo boy, maybe not a Nigerian buh he is Ibo. Same way someone can be in America and is Jewish or Arab. That he is there does not erase his roots. I get your disappointment tho

Bastards.

If I were you, I would start sleepn in my female 'friends' house too. Tell her u don't have male friends u can trust.

jeromzy:
Pls where can I get a live python??

The Cinema.

QueenSuccubus:


Amazing strength...

Yea, amazing. If a man did that to a lady (dumping in the trunk and kicking), you wouldnt say that

lekjons:
Am I the only one who didn't get that?

The guy's handle is 'king Joseph Arthur'. If u have watched Merlin, u will remember the name of the British King during merlin's time is King Arthur

ycmdng:
Please a help brother fill this questionnaire, its part of my MSc GIS thesis on "Integration of Geospatial data and Social media data for Emergency Management." Thanks in anticipation. One love!

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSeUrkmVbnNp6J40H8pu76n6Mm0VRxfZQJ9mpvUkOUq7lFNW0w/viewform?usp=sf_link

Have submitted mine

OTAIFOHJ:
Remember that WIKI simply means "What I Know Is"

Meanwhile,


Visit http://otaniumblog..com for hot edutainment gist.

Yes...and WiFi simply means "what I Fork is".
U think say na only u know abbreviation?

Explorers:
Just 20 technicians work at the facility with 12 cars being produced at a time and 70 made every year in total.

Wrong. It takes 6 months to craft a car by 20 techs, in a year only 2 can be made if it's only 20 techs that work there. Buh they churn out 70, so do the math.

frisky2good:
They have sacked the manager that gave them the league after so many years. Let's wait and see what Chukwu has to offer.

GENERAL MANAGER. Not coach. GM and CEO

dingbang:
please don't be silly . take ur stupidity somewhere else

Lol, it's too early to trade insults with u so I'll pass

dingbang:
They have found a scapegoat....




Glory be to God.

I bet u don't know the meaning of a scapegoat.
Someone is responsible for something and you say the person is a scapegoat?

Damilare6293:
There is no excuse whatsoever for him to hit her. You don't react to everything a lady says when she is angry. Real men don't abuse women. A great attribute a man should possess is self control.

I disagree. A great attribute human beings,not men alone should possess is self control. If you think anger is an excuse for women to say or do anythn, then don't forget that women don't have monopoly of getting angry. It's both ways. I still wan hear the full gist.

tit:
If he like let him come there with angels.
He will spend time in kiri kiri

How market nau? Waiting for him to spend time in Kirikiri