bemeruca:


NYT

The glaring gang-up turned off some people.

Like sure your strategy worked because your opponent has Jupiter-sized ego, but the moderators were clearly in the tank for you.
Even Dana Bash during her interview pressed her multiple times when she avoided a question. ABC refused to fact-check her.

-Lord

bemeruca:
CNN focus group
https://x.com/ACTBrigitte/status/1833716011889037601

They asked her if she thinks Americans are better off under her than 4 years ago under Trump and her answer segued into Trump being boring.

Trump missed a lot of easy layups.
He is fortunate their records are stark and American swing state voters are discerning.

Reuters did a follow-up of undecideds. Most leaned Trump. Half said Harris was vague. I can bet that most thought Harris won the debate.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/some-undecided-voters-not-convinced-by-harris-after-debate-with-trump

Kudos to Harris for executing her plan. But her plan did not entail distancing herself from Biden. She did not sufficiently answer why she hadn't done the things she was talking about. And many saw her baiting Trump as a cheap trick to avoid getting in the weeds about her policies.

-Lord

LordReed:


Yeah sure. LoLz.

Are you a US citizen by any chance?

My postulations are evidence-based.

CNN's flash poll after the debate had this inference:

Debate watchers’ views of Trump, meanwhile, shifted little – 39% rated him favorably and 51% unfavorably following the debate, similar to his pre-debate numbers among the same voters.

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/trump-harris-debate-abc-09-10-24/index.html

Trump is a known quantity. Harris had a decent performance, but Trump held his own.
As I said at the start, you don't have to like this position or even accept it. But that's the objective take.

-Lord

LordReed:


Right. He is only just a little crazy so it's OK. LoLz.

Take it up with Americans.

-Lord

LordReed:


Right. A person talking of a stupid conspiracy as if it was real didn't hurt his campaign. Goes to show.

You might not like that takeaway, but it is factual.
Look up mainstream polls of who won the Trump-Clinton debates. Clinton won virtually all of them in the three debates.
An actual clean sweep.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_debates

She still lost the election.
You're focused on the conspiracy but 11m+ people illegally entered the country.
Some of these illegals have murdered, raped, and committed a range of violent crimes.
The plurality of Americans are now open to deportations.
They recall that Trump closed the border and built walls. And when Biden-Harris came in, they opened the border and stopped the wall construction.
A conspiracy is not changing this reality.

Trump pointed this discrepancy out, in a crude way, sure; but he did nonetheless.
And he also did on the flip-flopping, on foreign policy, her record, and more.
Kamala did well in baiting Trump and getting him to waste precious time on inanities.
But he still got the hits in. And Americans will see that.

The same CNN Snap poll that showed Kamala handily winning the debate 63-37, showed Trump actually increasing his lead on the economy by 2 points compared to a pre-debate base poll.
So there are people who watched the debate, probably thought Kamala won, and came away with the conclusion that Trump is better on the economy.
Now, why would they think that?

Since 2016, the consensus on Trump is that he is not polished, he is brawny and always wants to get into confrontations.
Last night did not change that perception. It also did not change the perception that his 4 years were better on the economy, immigration, and foreign policy.
That is why raum and others (myself included) are saying he's still in this.

-Lord

Roland17:


I have to agree. I don’t think tonight will affect the poll numbers for either. This is going to be a tight race, very slim margins.

She should pray that the media is somehow able to convert positive coverage of her debate performance into measurable polling impact.
Otherwise, an inert debate that has no impact on the race cements a Trump victory.
Going into this debate, the race was tied. A proper tie in the national. No impact means the debate falls off the news cycle in a week and it's back to addressing her flip-flops, the economy, more illegal migrants flooding in...

Trump can be undisciplined sha. It's his 9th year in the ring. Her campaign previewed that they'd attempt to get under his skin. He said he wouldn't let her get to him.
Then she says people leave his crowds because he is boring and his ego couldn't take it. Like literally right off the bat.
She said his father left him 400m. And he felt like he had to correct her.
She kept baiting him with woven-in soundbites to avoid actually answering questions and him focusing on policy; and he ate most of the crumbs.

I like that he got all his hits in. Immigration. Inflation. Why she hasn't done anything yet. The flip-flopping.
But I feel like if he was disciplined, he could have really twisted the knife.

-Lord

raumdeuter:
At the end, I don't think any of them did any damage to their campaign with the debate tonight

That was my biggest fear going into this.
That she would pull a 2020 Biden (the first debate).
She didn't quite hit that level, although she gave it her best shot.

That said, Trump has a ceiling with debates.
Thankfully, he has a record and quick wit to fall back to.
The "I'm speaking. Does that sound familiar" line is a good example of that.

All he had to do was have an average performance and not be taken to the cleaners by her to stay in the race and he got that.

-Lord

CrystalTiger:
Make one APC supporter come out come help Dayo na 😕

Who send am message?

-Lord

23jerryking:
I don't get it, why is it that expensive given the fact that it could be easily shut down?

It's about the capability.
AWACS platforms are expensive and very vulnerable.
The leading platforms like the E-7 Wedgetail are like 400m a pop and are pretty much modified airliners that can be shot down easily.
The Reaper is dual-use.

The West has no option but to fly the Reaper.
Cloud cover can limit satellite visibility.
The large AWACS platforms can only do so much because they have to fly outside contested areas like over international waters and friendly states. If you want to go into enemy territory for extended loitering reconnaissance, this drone is your only option.
There is the Global Hawk, but that's over 120m apiece. Iran has shot one down in 2019, so no command will deploy that.

China has a wider range of variants in the class.
The CH-4 costs like $2m but it's easier to shoot down and its tech is not as advanced as the latest Reaper blocks.
The CH-5 is half the price of the latest Reaper but trades endurance for height ceiling and the Houthis can still shoot it down.

War is expensive.

-Lord

LordReed:


Forecast not poll! The poll doesn't show that Trump is at 61%.

What are you contesting? Precisely.

Others on the thread have clarified that it is a forecast based on a proprietary model.

-Lord

LordReed:


It's even a lie. Go to natesilver.net and check out yourself.

It's not a lie.

His forecast is behind a paywall.
You can either pay to access it or wait for other sources with paid subscriptions to repost it.

-Lord

basilico:


Kash Patel raised that option of Biden resigning to give Kamala a boost of confidence. But Biden needs to pardon Hunter who faces 17 years in gaol after his guilty plea . Kamala must promise to pardon him and his whole family of leechers.

Biden resigning so Kamala becomes POTUS is still on the October Surprise bingo card for many.
However, the boost would not be as rapturous as it'd have been if he'd stayed in the race.
We needed time to tie Kamala to the administration's failures and highlight her history.

For instance, it's only just in the last 48 hours that CNN revealed that Comrade Kamaleon favored taxpayer funding for sex change for illegal immigrants as recently as 2019.
The Sanders gaffe about her phony nature is just happening now more than 40 days after her ascendancy.

The likelihood of Biden leaving was always high.
If he was going to leave the race, we needed it to happen early not late.

I don't think the judges would throw a book at Hunter.
He'd get light, suspended sentences.
Conservatives will crow about two-tiered justice system and then they'll move on to complain about something else.

-Lord

SpaceX:
The honeymoon have ended reality start to kick in and true polls are coming out. Trump- 61.5% Kamala-38.3%

To be clear, this is not a poll.
This is a model forecast of the candidates' probability of winning.

There is a certain id**t on this board who has refused to share this since Trump reemerged as a favorite over the past week.

Trump just has to have an average, decent performance tomorrow and he's the next POTUS.
Forget about whatever Kamala does. Just tie her to the Biden-Harris administration failures and tie her "my values have not changed" quip to her historical far-left positions.
Trump is a wildcard so he could trip up. If Cruz, Rubio, Vivek, Vance, or Tulsi was on the stage tomorrow, I'd already be popping champagne.

I specifically favored Biden leaving the race for this reason. It was either Harris or a rough emergency nominee selection process. The latter is a non-starter. Harris ALWAYS starts strong and finishes badly; which syncs perfectly for Trump who always has strong closes.
If Biden had stayed in, the negative media coverage will cease and he'll recover in the polls. He may even decide to resign and Harris will be sworn in as the next POTUS in October. Then she'll just ride the wave into a comfortable election win. Think August on steroids.
Biden can still resign and have Harris be sworn in, but the effect will be muted. Compared to what it'd have been had he stayed in and then resigned after early voting had started.

Now we have all of September and possibly October to bury Harris.
It all started with the RFK endorsement.
Trump should drive another nail in tomorrow.

-Lord

BlueRayDick:


Things in Aso Rock are more complex than we see them to be .

It was the same Aso Rock there was a shootout between Tunde Sabiu’s security and Aisha Buhari’s security . I think Aso Rock is another civil service on its own.

If the powers that be want Ajuri out , there’s next to nothing Tinubu can do to veto him in.

You may be on the money.
There's always court politics in every powerful office.

It's clear he lost out.
The open question is why he's dropping it all.
One minute he is adding more portfolios, the next he is going off radar completely.

I don't also think it's about graft satiety.
If I were to venture a guess, it'd be something similar to UN DSG Madame Amina.
Dude has buffed up his resume and will decompress before meandering his way into the non-profit complex.
He appears to have more than a passing interest in climate action. I'm sure there's a DEI spot he could snag with a handful of recommendations. Get a 6 figure salary for upkeep and invest his Presidency loot (with no draws).

Personally, I think he should have run out the clock. It's not about greed.
It's about being practical. Like sportsmen, when you're hot sh*t, get the largest contracts.
There is a huge QoL jump from $4m to $25m to $80m to $150m.

We're all built different. So good luck to him.

-Lord

dvkot:
oh only US has right to talk about other countries election abi?

The same folks who insisted they knew who actually won the Venezuela election are demanding others stop commenting on theirs.

Always acting like they're levitating above the rest of us. It's sickening.

-Lord

abduleez1:
PEAK IS BACK!!!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ysqiEC6bLUI?si=AfWNXzNdKWX5Ikf2

We feast!

-Lord

izzou:


With NNPCL and Dangote trading crude in naira, will there be increase in the price of PMS, if the naira crashes to the dollar?

Or are we hoping to see 897 as the price for a very long while

There will be an increase that will reflect in NNPCL's books.
The open question is if they'll pass the cost on to consumers. And if so, when the price change will be effected.

The theory, at least according to a makeshift in-country economic consensus, is that by axing a huge chunk of $ transactions; the FX rate will be more stable. Fewer naira chasing the $. And the wild swings we'd been accustomed to will significantly reduce if not cease.
If the naira crashes to the dollar anyway, gas prices will go up like they habitually do.

-Lord

Segedinho:


The base price as accepted by the world isn't the issue here.....

We have been importing even paying landing cost as well as other pms related expenses yet were paying way below the price at fuel stations..


All of a sudden,there are statements about smuggling and incompetency at the border garnished with some debts......

Within 2 days a jack up of pms price wch corresponds roughly with the "almighty dangote" pump price is released..


If you believe Dangote is selling way below market price without some sort of agreement which I termed [sinister understanding] then u can believe anything...

What is the price of diesel today at NNPC?
If Dangote was not supplying diesel, it will cost above 1400 per liter in Lagos (higher in other jurisdictions).
A $ is 1610-1640.

Dangote's sales rate to NNPCL is not by itself the reason for the pump price change.
NNPCL used Dangote's intro as an opportunity or smokescreen to raise the rates and cut its per liter subsidy, shortfall, under recovery or whatever they call it.

Dangote has a set rate to sell his gasoline like he has for all his other refined products.
NNPCL can either pay or a foreign off taker will gladly take it off his hands.
NNPCL has been playing games but let's keep our eye on the ball.

-Lord

Segedinho:

I have a feeling of some sort of sinister agreement bw Dangote and FG/NNPC...


The sudden Jack up of price coincidentally tallied with dangote's delivery date....


Las las...almost exactly the same price with dangote's ....

The base price for gasoline as of the last hour is $0.52/L. At 1611/$ (yesterday's closing rate), that comes to N838/L.
Put differently, if you want to place an order for cargo at a US refinery for gasoline in the last hour for an October delivery, the base price is N838/L.
That's before any factoring for grades, shipping, loading and port fees, storage and what have you.

Dangote is giving NNPCL ex-factory, "because say na you" price.
No middlemen.
If they don't buy, he'll sell on the open market. Retail rate in Ghana is above N1400. Their downstream players enjoy a generous profit margin.

-Lord

raumdeuter:


Do you still think there is still enough wiggle room for any politician to manoever. Cos at the tail end of Buhari admin, we were hearing that 97% of income was spent on debt servicing. At some point you borrow, patch until its no longer possible and have to face the music

Have we reached that point in Nigeria or you think theres some more room for patch patch?

There is some room to maneuver.
Tinubu's administration has stashed away at least N5T in the past year from FX and subsidy savings.

For instance, in May 2024, revenue for the preceding month was N2.19T. FAAC shared N1.2T.
In June 2024, revenue was N2.32T. FAAC shared N1.14T.

They claim they want to use it to set up an infrastructure fund.

We are in a tight, uncomfortable situation. An Argentina or Lebanon grade crisis is still a while out.

-Lord

raumdeuter:


Do you realistically think the economy can survive without these policies?

Tinubu himself marched against one of these policies in 2012.
Most politicians in Nigeria will damn the economic consequences and reverse fiscally responsible policies if it would guarantee 4 more years of access to the Treasury.

-Lord

BlueRayDick:
With the way Tinubu, his appointees and government is moving ehn.... At this point, it's looking like a case of " Na who go die go die, Na who remain go remain"

VAT to be increased to 10%

https://www.nairaland.com/8203008/proposing-law-increase-vat-10

He knows he's likely a one-term President.
He will not be prematurely removed.

So he'll press ahead with his reforms.
Whoever comes after him can reverse his policies like Yar'Adua did.

-Lord

Ibime:



Great analysis

This would suggest the problem is not smuggling but writing of phantom numbers

It's both.
Smuggling is a scourge. And the bean counters at NNPC also pad the numbers.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:


NNPC is rolling out cng but like you said it is capital intensive and nnpc as a company is run like a federal parastatal. It may actually be better for their performance if their retail is actually ovh energy and that culture takes over.

I don't think the culture will move the needle much.
The fundamentals are f*cked.

Lokpobiri is saying some 25 to 35m liters of gasoline are smuggled out daily.
Total import is around 50 - 60m liters.
To put that in perspective, in 2022, Egypt's total was 31m liters per day. South Africa was 25m liters.

For our immediate neighbors, Benin is 3m. Niger is 0.7m. Chad is 0.8m. Cameroon is 2.1m. That is 6.6m liters total.
Niger and Chad can already smuggle even cheaper gasoline from Libya.
Togo, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Ghana are 12.4m combined. And at a certain point, transport over land wrecks the profit margin.

The subsidy regime is monumental waste.
They just write whatever consumption figures they like and pocket the monetary equivalent.
Replace NNPC with a private company and it'll be no different.
We don't have to hypothesize. Under the PDP subsidy regime, that's exactly what the private briefcase companies did.

You know you are in SHTF territory when Atiku and Tinubu can look at a scale of thievery and say "this is too much".

cc izzou

-Lord

izzou:


You are looking at it from one side.

As the naira continues to fall, it will always be profitable to sell in Togo. Even at 855, it is profitable.

So a poor man in Sokoto should buy fuel at 1500 per litre, because we don't want smugglers to carry fuel?

Is this really the best solution

The uncomfortable truth is that the poor man in Sokoto should buy fuel at 1500 per liter.
That is the fair market price.

Say your relative is running a store.
You may get merchandise at F&F discount. A regular customer will get at cost price + profit margin. Your relative makes less profit on you.

Now let's run an hypothetical where your relative buys the product at N1000.
Sells it to you at N600. That's a loss of N400.
Let's go further. You start collecting more products than you need at N600 and reselling them on the open market at N1300.
How long will your relative remain in business?

We've structured our economy to run on subsidized gasoline and it is unsustainable.
If we were a country of 5 million people, it wouldn't be a big deal.
The trouble is how to fix this debacle without sparking widespread unrest.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:


if they dont reach the actual price, the smuggling will continue.

it is what it is, and it is 101% fked up

all this talk about banning jerrycans, stopping people with jerrycans in their cars, is about curbing smuggling.

quite literally they are doing diversion in stations.

black marketers come with 5 to 10 50 litre jerrycans even when there is no scarcity

The problem is twofold.

1. We failed to fix the electricity deficit.
2. We can't wean Nigerians off cheap energy without something else picking the slack.

Fixing electricity and pushing gas as a relatively affordable alternative are both very capital and time-intensive endeavors.
We are essentially stuck. Capital best utilized in fixing electricity is being expended on subsidy.

They'd slowly raise gasoline prices until it hits parity. Now it's 850. Early next year, it'll be 1100.
I pressed for a 100K minimum wage partly for this reason.

-Lord