Ballzproblem2:
the retaliation na chise, Israel have already started intercepting the drones.


if Iran mind touch ground make them use ballistic missiles .

No more they can't launch from Iran.
You don shift post.

Anyway, cooler heads will prevail.

-Lord

WrriterNg:
⚡The Biden Administration has been making multiple requests to set up a call between Biden and the leader of Iran. They’ve bern denied, per White House staffer

What does he want to say?
He should restrain his reckless puppet.

-Lord

Ballzproblem2:
exhaust una

Shey I b tell you say Iran go retaliate.

You dey laugh, meanwhile Netanyahu dey inside bunker.

-Lord

Itsrm:
Everyone is dumping their bags. Is the world coming to an end because Iran and Isreal are fighting? Even BTC is dumping really hard

BTFD!

-Lord

And so it begins!

Fireworks Watch Party FTW!

F*ck around and find out, FARSI version.

-Lord

Procashtips:


Ok.

Funny enough Iran spent time building missiles and suicide drones.

They're a force to reckon with when it comes to suicide drones and missiles.

True.

This is my point. While they focused on drone and missile technology, Russia and China should have covered their flanks by providing world-class weaponry in areas where they are lacking.

-Lord

Procashtips:

Now why do you think Iran is not getting these offensive and anti defensive weapons from friends of interest even as their security is getting more threatened?

I don't ascribe anything malicious to the delay.
It appears to me that Axis Powers were content with coasting and building alliances at a leisurely pace until it became apparent that the West was serious about forcing a confrontation.
That took them unawares.

That's water under the bridge now.
But I do hope both parties--Russia and China on one hand and Iran on the other--pick up valuable lessons from this ordeal.

-Lord

Procashtips:


Nicely put but what exactly are you disagreeing with me on?

That Russia is holding on to its comparative advantages in not selling more advanced tech to Iran.
And that Iran can easily build systems of comparable quality.

Iran has obvious blind spots that need to be corrected yesterday and the only immediate solutions are in Russia and China.
Russia has sold the S-400 to Turkey. That two-faced, slimy worm that I'm sure has promptly delivered the schematics to NATO engineers.
Russia has offered its 5th-gen Su-57 to India.

Iran should have all the S-400 systems and Su-35 jets it needs at friends-and-family rate.
Russia traditionally will flood allies with current-gen weaponry and reserve cutting-edge, next-gen weaponry for its own needs and favored partners. Iran should be getting that treatment, regardless of what their indigenous development plans are.

-Lord

ulaeto:


All these busy body is it really necessary.??
Going into panic mode for your beloved son every hour because of what he did.. truly the wicked flee when no one is pursuing 😀

Iran should continue keeping the movie watchers in suspense till when the who place is calm then.. 💥 acting now will have limited and minimum effects since they're all on full alert/readiness. One thing for sure is there'll be a response, i took them serious the day the striked US forces in Iraq

I fully support Iranian intelligence keeping them in suspense.

-Lord

emmaodet:


I don't know why they go about causing tensions around the world unnecessarily.
Why you you bomb another country's embassy and kill their diplomats then turn around preparing for war.
I believe they deliberately want Iran to come out of her shells and attack. Like they have a plan for her, if not I don't see any other reason.
They have been setting the traps for long for Iran praying and hoping she falls into it so that they can deal her a big blow, split up the country into a smaller weaker one or a regime change.
They have placed so many embargoes on her, killed her scientist for nuclear while they have theirs fully in store, kill their military leaders and also killed their diplomats all just to provoke her into war and start screaming all round the world and media that Iran is the aggressor and NATO should help isreal.
It's not their fault. No one's has been keeping them busy so they have all the time in the world to be distablizing countries all round the world.
Assuming mexico, Cuba and other close by countries have been rationed with foreign military bases and armed to the teeth, using them as bases for training terrorists, rebels and people who want to disintegrate them, they won't have much time distablizing far off countries
Stupid idiots

Well, they've simultaneously awaken the Dragon, the Bear, and the Lion.
Whatever advantages they possess is on borrowed time.
Use it or lose it.

That's why they're baiting and provoking everyone.
From Ukraine to Taiwan.
Russia sha no gree for them because they can hold their own. But Iran will have to be more circumspect.
China has seen the writing on the Wall and is rapidly modernizing its military.

-Lord

Procashtips:


Russia is not afraid of sanctions from the US if this is one of the reasons you think Russia is hesitant in selling S 4++ to Iran.

I just believe it's more of holding on to your comparative advantage.

If Iran is serious, she should build here too. They have the technology, they have their own witches and wizards capable of helping them achieve these things. But religion won't let them go fully into the supernatural+technology.

Currently watching Dune (Part one).

Whoever thinks that these badass technologies aren't ideas gotten from the supernatural is naive. People in Europe, N.A and some parts of Asia make use of their demons/witches and wizards well (for internal strengths)

Nah.

The trouble with the Axis Powers is that their all-hands-on-deck cooperation really only began to simmer recently.
These are all former foes who are in a marriage of convenience because the West wants to pick them apart one by one.

This capability gap does not only apply to Iran.
Russia waited until the Ukraine War to get serious with drones. Thank the stars Iran had amassed superlative capability in this area and the technology is easily transferable.
Russia will have to beef up the alliance. It is still the leader in fighter jet, EW, spaced-based warfare, AD, and several more areas.
The West pulled ranks to develop the F-35 platform. Look at quickly they were able to complete development and ramp up production.

Russia's technical edge plus China's manufacturing prowess is a game changer.
If Russia can outproduce the West, then imagine for a second what adding China's productivity does for the Axis cohort.
I really do hope they coordinate better and leverage their strengths to make up for each other's weaknesses.

For instance, there's no reason really why China and Russia do not develop export variants of their 5th gen fighters for their close allies who have proven their mettle.
Set aside a percentage of annual production and use financial engineering to stagger payments.
Iran should have hit Israel already. If it had the AD and interceptor capabilities that China + Russia could have provided before this bust up, they wouldn't be so panicky about a US/Israel retaliation.

Israel has entire squadrons of F-35 while Iran only just signed off on a deal to acquire last-gen Su-35 (not Su-57 or J-20) in November 2023.
It's appalling.

-Lord

ulaeto:

Omo where're all those Pro-Isreali supporters, at this point, even if Iran doesn't strike Isreal presently, it has been well documented that the begging and pressure was much for a reconsideration thereby ultimately placing iran in same class as isreal's father 😄 see world pressure unbehalf of one riff raff. And to add, lots of deals are also ongoing in exchange for cessation of hostilities. Omo forget stories and religion thing.. country per country, Iran tight pass Israel by far.

Perhaps after this standoff, the Ayatollah will finally authorize an overhaul of the Iranian Aerospace Forces.
The Russians and Chinese had offered them 4th and 5th gen fighters and bombers for more than 4 years now. But the Iranians turned up their nose at the relevance and cost; instead preferring to invest massively in offensive missile technology.

Without same-gen fighters to intercept Israeli jets and layered air defense systems equivalent or better than the S-400, I don't envy the General in charge of defending the Persian homeland.
I definitely think they have to respond to the Damascus assassination.
But any American-Israeli retaliation will sting and I suspect is part of the delay. Iran is trying to get its ducks in a row.

-Lord

awesomeJ:

We're currently in week 15/52 this year, your ignorant assumption is that the CBN has taken $1bn dollars every 3 weeks, why has our reserves not depleted by $5bn

When did the intervention start?

I wonder why you're blind to the fact that $7bn of backlog were knocked off, and currency's value has been restored from 1900 to 1100 yet only $1bn has been used from the reserves?

Of the $7B backlog, they cleared $5B and struck off $2B as invalid.
Of that $5B they cleared, they got $2B in loans from AfriEXIM bank and $2B from FPIs.
CBN also now receives oil sales receipt from the NNPC.

And they did not need to dip into the reserves until they started the intervention.
Most of the money used for the backlog clearance will have to be repaid.
They cleared the backlog with debt.

Now that there's no more backlog to clear and they only need to gain #100-200 more instead of #800 that they already did. If you were objective enough you'd see that they wouldn't need up to $3bn more from the reserves.

Again stop assuming in ignorance that reserves are for decoration. They're serving their purpose at this time. The only surprise here is that only $1bn has been used when it should have been up to $10bn.

So if it will take $3B to move the rate to 900, why not spend $10B to move it 300?
In fact, why stop there?
Why not spend $13B to move it to 100. Or $15B to make it $1 to N1.
After all, the reserves are not for decoration.

Spend the money to peg the rate and your feelings will keep it at that rate forever. Like magic!

-Lord

Itsrm:





Few weeks back, people were begging for these prices, now that it's here, no one wants to buy.

It's not yet time to buy.
DCA only applies in the financial markets--stocks, crypto--where no one can time the bottom.
Here, it's different. Even if you live under a rock, you'll know when the CBN is fatigued.

-Lord

BlueRayDick:


E shock am; e no fit believe him eyes say na the same strategy he bring dem don quickly weaponize against him and his business .

What people need to understand is that in any market where there's little or no government interference , business is WAR! And everybody will fight for him interests .

U see what Onyeama did with that sudden price reduction; he rattled the board of different companies . By that one move , he has made the cars of some directors hang in the balance , he has made the appraisal of some senior staff far less desirable and has set path to which those competitors will lose market share thereby reducing their income .

All those people needed to do was to identify his strategy as a potential threat to their means of livelihood and they quickly devised means to respond to him in like manner . I don't envy him right now

👆

Onyeama is too boisterous for his own good.
Trying to be a John Legere without the deep pockets.

-Lord

dreamxhaser:


Bro this is what I am trying to make anyone that cares to listen understand.

Instead of hoping for the best. They should plan ahead, you only rely on optimism When everything is beyond your control.

I have seen a lot come up with theories on how naira will appreciate. Naija go better, bla bla blah. But guess what, things have gotten worse today.

I appreciate the alternate viewpoints.
There are limited periods where the economy stays stable.
Like in 2009-2013. 2017-2019. 2003-2006.

But it seems we have a dizzying number of perpetual optimists.
Well, as they say in local parlance, "life na per head."
Everyone is free to do whatever they fancy.

-Lord

karkinase:

So apt, but your last line .. but dollar at above 2500

I expect all of us to live long mate.

The FX rate dominates so much of our collective consciousness that it has become a boogeyman of sorts.
But then you look at our trajectory and everything becomes clearer.

Inflation rate is 30%. Best we can hope in the medium term is reduction by 10 to 15 percentage points.
So in 5 years, we're looking at double Q1 2024 prices.
Not to mention, a lot can happen in 5 years.
The Ukraine War will likely end within 5 years. Oil prices will crash within the period. We could have a global recession.
Lots of potentialities that can cause an economic shock that causes a whiplash in the rate.

Taken all together, 2500 is a lock.
If rates can sink from 1900 to 1000 in two months. It can move in the opposite direction in the same duration.
Folks need to plan and establish contingencies. As opposed to relying on hope or believing the frivolous postulations of tenured administrators.

People alive in this country saw the rate at $1 to N1. They survived and excelled while it crashed 99,900% to $1/N1,000.
It's not when it gets to your turn that a 2x or 5x would kill you.
Stay informed. Be smart about your investments. And you'll be fine.

-Lord

awesomeJ:


Summarize your points?
1. Is your opinion that the CBN did wrong by managing the manipulative tendencies in the market and you would have preferred they let it slide to #2500?
In whose interest? So that you can profit, while tens of millions of citizens lose purchasing power?

Are you familiar with the adage of "penny wise; pound foolish"?

2. Why do you assume or make it sound like the CBN vowed they wouldn't ever take funds from the reserves? What do you think the reserves are meant for?

Does taking out $1B every 3 weeks from a finite reserve of $34B sound sustainable to you?

3. Reserves position shown on the CBN website is on a 30-day moving average, so it's erroneous for you or any reporter to assume the reserves dipped only after they cleared the backlog.

SMA does not defy trends.
$1B has indeed left the reserves over the last 30 days
This coincides with the resumption of intervention and after the CBN declared it had cleared the backlogs.

If this weren't published, your ilk will be giving us lamba.
Now you're making SMA into this alien concept.
When in the history of this country, we've always been mindful of up-to-the-minute reserve levels while setting monetary policy.

4. You do not have any record to support your assumption that everyone who has dollars has sold off from 1900 to 1000. There are still some like you who for selfish reasons wish woes on the nations economy, and still expect gloom and doom. Of the $30bn in dorm accounts, I'm sure more than $15bn are still lying there idle.

I said anyone who wants to panic sell has had lots of time to do so.
You're betraying your shocking ignorance with your unrealistic expectation that all $30B will be sold.

When you expect gloom and doom on the currency and seem to get angered at progresses like this, you should remember that for every 1 nigerian that profits from naira's crash, 100 more Nigerians suffer. So the interest of those 100 Nigerians are more important.

I will not respond to emotional diatribe.
Stick to the topic.

Nigerians cannot sow tomato and reap strawberry.
This is tied to the country's inability to attract FDI.
Rather than change that, you've borrowed hot money at 21% so you can do more consumption cheaply on the international market.

And when fair-minded folks point out the overly limpid flaws in this ridiculous plan, you predictably deflect.
I'll have you know I don't have the patience or bandwidth for inanity.

-Lord

awesomeJ:


The paradox is that at #2000, people would hoard and demand more dollar as safe haven, but at #1000, people would offload.

Whoever wants to offload has had a few weeks to do so.
All the way from 1900 to 1000.

Thus making dollar scarce even at #2000, but plenty at just #1000.

This is wishful thinking.
Demand will increase because folks can get more dollar per naira.
A phone that costs #200K in late February will cost 100K at #1000.
Plus, the minimum wage will increase in May.

The CBN should just pause for a bit once it reaches #1000, and then start building the reserves towards when FPIs will exit or a shock comes in the global oil market.

If they can build the reserves to $40bn by year end, FPIs will likely rollover their maturing bills next year.

All of this talk about pause is a sly admission of concern that the CBN is biting off more than it can chew.
And y'all should be worried.
Somehow the CBN was increasing the reserves while clearing $5B in backlog. Yet somehow, after only 3 weeks of intervention, reserves declined by $1B.
All the FPI inflow, the remittance surge, the CBN handling NNPC revenue, deferring IOC repatriation of their share of oil sales, and hoarders disposing $ did not stop the CBN from dipping into the reserves. We'll see where this deceptive dance ends.

The truly exasperating detail is that the short-term securities the FPIs loaded up on can be disposed quite easily before maturity whenever they want and they'll still make out with bandits.
Or do you think if the oil price starts falling today, the FPIs will wait until next year to get out of dodge?

-Lord

BlueRayDick:
For those always asking why there hasn't been drastic reduction in price of goods despite appreciation of the naira against the dollar.

This is one of the reasons

That's negligible.
The current customs rate is 1238.
https://trade.gov.ng/en/exchange/customs-exchange-rate

Customs FX rate lags and is based on the previous-day NAFEX and CBN rates.
They're within the same band.

-Lord

7lives:


Nigerians will probably be privately
importing scud missiles and WMD, to be needing so much dollars.
Dollar failed to go above 1500, no demand or sabotage will stop dollar from going below that 1000 mark.
Check my posts on this issue on nairaland, if not corruption and sabotage, is naira supposed to be more than #250, to a dollar?.

Nigeria's productivity can not sustain a #250 rate.
This is not rocket science.

We are a country of 200m people pushing less than $5B in non-oil exports.
That's like an entire local government producing one tuber of yam.
Yet you want to build houses, you want to buy cars, you want to vacation and go to college abroad.
You also want subsidy on gasoline, electricity, and what not.

Who do you want to steal dollars from to purchase these things you need and want on the international market.

The CBN can peg the rate at whatever it likes. No one is stopping it from pegging at $1:N1.
After the peg though, it'll have to sustain the intervention when they need to provide a lot of dollars for few naira.
We'll see at that point if the NSA will go kidnap Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, to force the US to print dollars for Nigeria.

-Lord

jedisco:
Nobody is talking about 'German' loan trap now like they would if it was China. Is this not a direct copy of what the Chinese are doing in Africa? - Something western nations including Germany have criticised them for.
$2.3 loan from Germany to be given to a German company. This is over half of all we've borrowed from China since 2007 bring taken out at once


In addition, what are the nitty-gritties of this loan
What's the loan interest rate and how competitive is it?
How much would a similar project have have cost if the bidding process was open?
What are the restrictive covenants in place e.g if Nigeria can't pay back.

You make valid points.
But there are reasons to treat this differently.

First off, Germany's reputation in the sector is unmatched.
We've not revamped our transmission infrastructure since they were installed in the nation's infancy.
This is not a project where you'll generally want to go cheap.
You want the most efficient player to come in and deliver a quality job that'd last the next 30, 50 years with firm guarantees.
The Germans check that box. The only other folks I'll call for this are the Americans, Japanese, or South Koreans.

We actually approached the Germans because Siemens did a remarkable job in Egypt.
https://www.siemens.com/eg/en/company/topic-areas/egypt-megaproject.html
Yes, that same Egypt that has the same running concerns from corruption to debt burden.

As to the details of the loan.
The loan is provided by the world's largest national developmental bank.
Rates are typically single-digit. The EU has some of the lowest rates on the planet.
As regards a default, the Europeans have a long history of being open to debt reconstruction and relief.

Will we have gotten a better deal from China. Absolutely.
That does not make this a bad deal.
Some could argue diversifying our loan base is the smart thing to do.
Plus, we're using it for viable infrastructure instead of pointless intra-city monorails.

Many watchers have correctly lampooned the West for not doing enough to match China's infrastructure drive in Africa.
This is a welcome attempt to fix that and should be encouraged.
In 2022, Siemens signed a new deal worth $8.7B in Egypt, which I expect to be north of $10B due to predictable cost overruns, for a nationwide high speed rail system.

If we were a serious country, the EU, Japan, South Korea, and China would industrialize this country many times over and we would barely have to lift a finger. Norway, Qatar, UAE, and the multinational developmental funds will serve as cosigners.
There are trillions in funds looking for a home.

-Lord

karkinase:
#1000 is the last support .. @ this point CBN and speculators will have a huge battle for price next direction.. anyone who wins we will follow

No one will fight the CBN during the intervention.
In financial markets, this phenomenon is called "Don't fight the tape" or "Don't catch a falling knife" or "The market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent."
The prevailing trend right now is downward and this is not a free market.
The duel will commence when the CBN does the victory dance after hitting its rate target.

As you'd notice, buyers and sellers in all FX windows rapidly change their prices immediately after every CBN peg.
No one will waste their resources when they know they'd be able to get the $ cheaper by waiting and make bigger profit afterwards.
The US Dollar is backed by $3 TRILLION worth of exports. And Nigeria is an economic basket case.
In the medium term, everyone on this thread will buy $ at above 2500.
Water seeks its own level.

-Lord

grandstar:
Rather than praise this development, it should be queried.

The foreign reserves recently went down by $900m. Would a stronger Naira not lead to an increase for Dollars, simply adding more pressure to the foreign reserves?

Too late.
Allow him to peg the rate at whatever he sees fit.

He knows he cannot defend any rate he sets.
Whether it is 1200, 900, 500, 200 or N1:$1.
The goal is to drive it as low as possible to set a deep floor for the naira before the inevitable depreciation resumes.
This time I expect there to be a touch of speculative attack.

-Lord

iamtoofan:



IF foreign Fuel is sold @ 568 by NNPC, please elucidate why dangote fuel shouldnt sell below #500

NNPC subsidizes gasoline.
The real cost on the international market is higher than 568.

If Dangote sets a flat rate of less than #500 in an open market, buyers from outside Nigeria will buy everything for the next 2 years.
They'll load at his refinery, move the gasoline to Apapa Port or across to Cotonou, and ship outside Nigeria at international price with huge profit margins.

It'd be the equivalent of opening a sachet water outlet and deciding to sell at N5 per sachet and N90 per bag.
You'd never have it in stock because outsiders will come with cash and speak for everything you'll produce right from the factory floor.

-Lord

Ebinpawo1:
Why are marketers the ones fixing the price?

They are negotiating.
If Dangote's price is not low enough, they'll continue loading from NNPC.
NNPC will then enter a backroom deal with Dangote.

Personally, if I'm Dangote, I'll rather solely deal with NNPC for gasoline.
Diesel and other deregulated products can be sold through marketers.

-Lord

Acidosis:


They're proposing N550 to Dangote, not you. You think they're buy at N550 from Dangote and sell to you the consumer at N550?? Hehehe


Nigerians sha. The same Dangote wey una dey insult everyday over the price of locally-made cement, sugar, etc. has suddenly turned to una saviour. LMAO.

It'd be funny if it wasn't so sad.

Dangote can sell to literally anybody on the planet.
His refinery is right on the shores of Lagos. Load and go.

But somehow they expect Dangote to sell below the current international rate when even Benin Republic will buy at higher prices.
Everybody sells something. It could be goods for profit or services for salary.
Yet, for whatever reason, they expect someone else to do something they'd never do.
Sell below cost price when there's literally a litany of buyers who are fighting to pay the going rate for your goods.

-Lord

saddler:


In order to keep the APC zombies happy, deplete the foreign reserves and put more cheap dollars into the FX market.

APC zombies are not the only folks asking for cheap dollars.
I don't think it is proper to pawn off the demand for subsidized $ to any cohort of the population.
Nigerians overwhelmingly favor the current FX intervention and must be willing to accept the cost.

-Lord

monerozi5590:


Up till now, Israel has not deny or accept responsibility of the bombing of Iran Embassy in Damascus.

In life, anything that is possible can happen. So taking precautions is necessary and normal.

See countries like Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Is possible Russia might attack them one day, so they joined NATO to protect themselves against any Russia aggression.

Till date, Israel has not confirmed or denied possession of a nuclear weapon.
The US has already informed Iran that Israel did it.
And that the US had nothing to do with the reckless strike.

If there was any doubt, of all of Iran's enemies, Israeli is the only one spoofing GPS signals and closing embassies.
The horrifying part is that Israel has created so many ugly precedents that Iran has a range of options to retaliate.
From assassinating dual-citizen Israelis on foreign soil to striking Israel directly with no regard for collateral damage.

There is an Israeli embassy in Abuja.
Air Defense is near nonexistent in Nigeria.
Imagine the danger that Israel's horrible decision has placed on innocents in and around that location; including Nigerian consular employees.

-Lord

Ballzproblem2:
lol Iran won't attack israel direct, this is their usual chest beating.

You are far more certain than the Israelis taking unprecedented precautions.

-Lord

Ballzproblem2:
Two Iranian officials quoted by The New York Times say Iran has put its military forces on “full high alert.”
The officials say Iran has made a decision to directly attack Israel in retaliation for an alleged Israeli strike on Monday that killed a top Iranian commander in Syria and several other Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members, and in order to create deterrence.


#copied

next few weeks will be interesting let's see if Iran has balls to attack israel directly

Perhaps Iran should flatten a civilian building killing all members of a family including women and children; then tell the world that one of the occupants was an IDF reservist.

Israel asked for this.

-Lord

WriterrNg:
⚡Israel has begun evacuating embassies around the world for fear of an Iranian response.

For all the "Iran is all talk" crooners, this is what primal fear and trepidation looks like.

Iran will keep things contained for sure.
I sincerely hope they don't f*ck up this glorious opportunity like they did when they accidentally shot down that civilian airliner in 2020.

Waiting to be spanked is part of the punishment.

-Lord