wirinet:

Impeached for what and for which office? Impeach him as vice president retroactively for his conduct as vice president or impeach him as president for his previous conduct as vice president?

Blah blah blah!

Biden will be impeached.

He will have his chance to defend his misconduct during the Senate hearings.

-Lord

IjeBos:


He may be impeached because the GOP is crazy. But that isn't even sure as they hold a small (4-5 seat) majority and people will be in self protect mode because the GOP will pay BIG political tolls in the next election for this nakedly political move.

The fix is in for the 2024 election.

Anyone with a D beside their name will win and you guys will retain the Senate majority.

This impeachment is a shot across the bow. A declaration of intent to put every future D POTUS and presidential frontrunner through the wringer, deserved or not.

Wait until a R Presidency: Weaponization of institutions will take an all new dimension.

Thanks for the rope guys. Couldn't have done it without TDS.

-Lord

IjeBos:
Republicans are out to destroy every institution they can for purely political ends. Have they ever wondered what happens next when they have destroyed confidence in the FBI, Congress, the Judiciary and the Presidency.

They are attempting to impeach a President with no real evidence for things they claim happened before he became President. It's manufactured bullsh*t propagated to their uneducated, undiscerning base.

Noise!

Biden will be impeached.

Turnabout is fair play.

-Lord

emmaodet:


You see....this is the advantage of a multipolar world.[b][/b]
it creates competition among the big boys to improve the lower countries.
The lower countries will enjoy the option of picking who they like and want to work with.
Monopoly anywhere in the world is bad.

Swears!

Just yesterday, the US, UAE, Saudi Arabia, the EU, and India unveiled a massive intercontinental project to counter China's One Belt, One Road initiative.

While in South-Central Africa, China lit the fuse for Africa's first transAfrican rail network connecting coast to coast. The expanded Lobito corridor will connect the Lobito Port in Angola and the Dar es Salaam Port in Tanzania (image attached).

The Americans and Europeans are only concerned about the Angola, DRC, and Zambia section but at least they're putting their money where their mouth is. The US DFC will be investing $250M in the project, their first financing of rail infrastructure in Africa.

China is making them loosen their purse strings. And we'd all enjoy the dividends.

-Lord

Gerrard59:


I thought the AU acceptance was the West trying to appease Africans. So na India and China do am?

China had been pushing for it. The West feigned deafness.

Africa's pragmatic neutrality in the War and the BRICS+ becoming a more formidable counterweight turned the tides.

Using their privilege of hosting, India sent a formal communique to every G20 member. No more hiding behind lack of consensus. Go on the record and pick a ballot--accept or reject. Then deal with the fallout when every BRICS+ member votes to accept the AU and the so-called champions of "liberty" and "inclusiveness" vote to reject.

About the bold, I won't lie, one of the reasons I opted for Japan instead of the West for grad studies and eventual residence is because the world's economy is shifting east. I recall an American investor, Jim Rogers, saying in the 19th Century, one had to be in London. In the 20th Century, one had to be in New York. In the 21st Century, one has to be in either China and/or India.

East and Southern Africa stand the most to benefit due to geography. We just have to be pragmatic. My fear is the US egging on some countries to either be overly belligerent towards China or instigate a war in the region. A war would set the region backwards and reduce their populations. Their leaders, especially those in South East Asia, Japan and South Korea, have to be very pragmatic. They have more to lose than China.

Spot on, especially on the Jim Rogers inspired stance.

About the West instigating a hot conflict, China is not particularly blameless. They've been tempting India, slowly encroaching and seizing Indian borderlands. Then the unilateral extension of their maritime boundary in contested waters.

From their viewpoint, they have no natural allies, so offense is the best form of defense. If neighbors are on a backfoot, they wouldn't get uppity.

Nonetheless, I do not see a hot war breaking out in Asia. Never say never, but China knows to straddle the red lines without pushing past it. I do see an intense build up of military capabilities though. The West will cash out from this development.

This is Asia's century. We're all just side characters.

-Lord

China's largest export destination is not the US or the EU anymore. It is the South East Asian (ASEN) bloc of 10 countries.
Last year, China got cracking on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and this year Chinese exports to ASEAN crossed $600B every month.

But but but wE hAvE tO cOnTaIn CHINA!

China is expanding the Singapore model to the entire ASEAN zone. And in time the rest of the population will grow rich enough and be closer to Singapore's level and ultimately become a lucrative market in its own right. A textbook example of a win-win.

As an aside, the G20 accepted AU as its newest permanent member. Many thanks to China's doggedness and India formally putting stakeholders on the spot.

If only Africa had its sh*t together. Billions to be made and we're slacking!

-Lord

BoldBrainz:


Nuhu Ribadu is a very intelligent, detribalised and highly "resourceful" Northern politician. He is reliable, contented and loyal and those are amongst the reasons he doesn't push the limits of his political career. But like El-rufai, he knows enough to be extremely dangerous. Keeping him very close to the chest was Obasanjo's way of keeping eyes on him. Tinubu borrowed that same template by putting Nuhu where he is today. He did Obasanjo's "wet works". And with him as the NSA, you can be sure Tinubu cannot and will not be sabotaged by anyone.

Nothing in your synopsis warrants sticking him in a group with Ganduje and el Rufai.

The ish with Northern politicians is that you don't rise to the top without being slightly sympathetic or at least tolerating some degree of ethnosupremacism.

Doubly so for the industrious, capable few who have to avoid the Atiku treatment. Technocrats in the North are viewed with undeserving suspicion.

Something to the effect of not being be too PC or liberal that you'd unwittingly kneecap the North's primacy.

On some level, that's understandable. That's textbook self-preservation.

Ribadu is the only top-level Northern heavyweight in the Tinubu camp who backed GEJ in 2015. If he hadn't, he'd have completed his 8 years as Governor of Adamawa and likely be the current VP. That kind of setback irrevocably destroys political careers. Yet, he has bounced back and is now in the running for the GCFR, even though I think it is a long shot for him.

His political value is not up to snuff, but he is the beau ideal Northern politico who should be in Aso Rock whenever it is the turn of the North. Otherwise sustained progress will eternally evade Nigeria. Southern Presidents do their best and the Northern Presidents who take the baton stomp all over the minute erstwhile gains.

Yar'Adua wrecked the foundation established by OBJ, primarily when he reversed the refinery sale. We're still reeling from that howler.
Buhari is fresh in our minds. Not even his most ardent supporter can gloss over his incompetence.
A Shettima, or heaven forbids, a Ganduje administration will make Tinubu seem like Deng Xiaoping.

I can't overstate how low my expectations are for Northern Presidents.

Unfortunately, we may very well get a Northerner from the parochial, orthodox, ultra-conservative bloc in 2031.

-Lord

BoldBrainz:


If only you know who Nuhu Ribadu is..😂. Somebody Obasanjo feared more than Atiku.

Expatiate?

-Lord

BoldBrainz:


The one mistake Nigeria cannot afford to make is have a President in the moulds of Nuhu Ribadu, Nasir El-rufai, Kashim Shettima and Abdullahi Ganduje.

Why is Ribadu on this list of calamitous specimens?

-Lord

Gerrard59:
The axiom that says to understand the future is to look at the past. History always repeats itself. Now, Western journalists lament that China enjoys high surpluses due to increased exports and the Renminbi is undervalued. However, from the screenshot below, the Yen is actually undervalued when compared to the dollar. Thus, Japanese exporters enjoy more because their goods are cheaper to buyers outside Japan. But no complaints about that from Washington. Another whine is that the Chinese don't purchase goods from the outside world. That is a bare-faced lie, as I stated in my comment (screenshot attached). The solution they proffer? China has to rein in on exports and do some kini kan to the Yuan aka something something Plaza Accord

Article (free-to-read): https://archive.md/u3Drq

Per your comment on decoupling.

Is it possible that the West is pushing climate change, sustainability, and cutting energy use/emissions; specifically to get their population accustomed to a lower standard of living? A la "you will own nothing and be happy".

Precisely because decoupling from China and the budding BRICS+ bloc will be the worst self-own in Western history. I think the elites see the handwriting on the wall and know the era where the rest of the world sends them tangible goods and they repatriate worthless fiat then force everyone to accept their "international rules-based order" under the threat of sanctions, regime changes, aircraft carriers, and nukes will go tits up.

And whenever SHTF in the West and QoL drops drastically, it's "Guillotine Season". To get ahead of it, they're deliberately lowering living standards and making their pliable populace eat it up as "for the environment and our children". Netherlands closing farms to "cut Nitrogen emissions by 80%". France closing some short-flight routes. Asking people to cut electric usage while simultaneously pushing EVs.

I mean from a policy perspective, there are lots of benefits for Western policymakers for the shift. But you have to wonder if they're not preparing for a world where the Golden Billion has to share the podium with a Platinum Tre Billion that's going to squeeze them economically.

-Lord

Gerrard59:

It is a hooge development, and I am only impressed by how fast they perfected it, not by its reality. I knew the Chinese would retaliate by producing the chips by themselves. They got the talent, die-hard spirit, capital, long-term thinking. Honestly, unless they succumb to threats or war, I don't see them failing in their quest to achieve what they want.

China is past the point where threats or war can derail their quest.

Cutting off China completely will cause deflation in the West. 'To the last Taiwanese' in a war will never fly.

They're out of options.

All of the West's current efforts to reign in China are simply figurative mine laying and China has demonstrated they have capable figurative minesweepers.

From what I have read, mainly by Westerners who come across as defeated, they are yet to produce the EUV machines. One aptly stated that it is done for once the Chinese begin to produce those machines. I have forgotten the specific terms, but the Chinese are only one generation away from the Taiwanese and Americans. Without the machines of ASML, it gets tough to get to that point, which is why the export restrictions came into place. However, because Japan and the Netherlands lodge their intentions of restricting supplies of those equipment at the WTO, the Chinese purchased a record quantities of those equipment before the restrictions came into effect (link attached: free-to-read).

TSMC and Samsung are on 3nm. The iPhone 15 PM to be released next week will have 3nm.

7nm is 3 generations back. The progression is 7nm, 5nm, 4nm, 3nm.

SMIC will need to reroute ASML machinery through friendly nations to keep up. I have some degree of familiarity with these lithography machines and they're engineering marvels, taking up entire rooms. ASML has R& offices in only the US and NL. None in the UK, Germany, Israel, or Japan, because the Americans want complete control.

There are no more than a few thousand experts in the entire planet with the know how to produce these machines. And modern Western high-value product design guidelines mandate compartmentalization. So the development teams for each major component are siloed. While the team that puts it all together have no expertise in the exact proprietary methods used to develop the components.

This is why when the likes of Apple and co buy companies in the space, they buy the entire organogram. Then poach star talents from rival companies with the lure of working with the creme de la creme in their ultra specific advanced field.

So you could secure the schematics for the latest machine through an hack and be unable to do anything with it. Poach a handful of employees and you run into a related problem because they have only specialized knowledge about a few components. This explains why Apple has been unable to design a high-performing 5G modem chip for years even though they bought Intel's entire modem chip division and poached talents from Qualcomm, Samsung, and Huawei. This is just design, they'll still have to use the Japanese and Taiwanese to pack and manufacture the modem chips.

China is keen to do everything within the mainland, so yea, saying it'd be tough is an understatement. They have their work cut out for them.

That said, there is only one direction they can go: UP. I'm in awe of their machining talent and if anyone can do it, it's China.

Lastly, the West is erecting roadblocks because they know when China hacks these advanced tech, the race is over.

Look at battery technology. The West can't catch up. The rapid reiteration in China has everyone in a doozy. Tesla started out with Panasonic, now they're deepening partnership with CATL. And the Biden Administration had to mandate that components be made in the US to qualify for EV credit. This is a subtle attempt to onboard Chinese proprietary battery tech.

Besides, when China figure these tech out, they'll become the preferred destination for talent and it'll kickstart a snowball effect. Now the US offers full scholarship for STEM PhDs and median wage stipend. Then, it'd becom full scholarship from masters level, citizenship immediately a program is completed, and six-figure starting stipend.

The secret to America's success is poaching talents. The moment a new bloc emerges with comparable draws and without silly sh*t like dozens of genders, all the innovation and creativity they showboat with will diminish.

This is one of the stellar reasons why I'm a proponent of multipolarism. It'd change the dynamics of a lot of things for our progenies.

-Lord

Gerrard59:


https://twitter.com/RnaudBertrand/status/1698709810164945014

Only a matter of time and SMIC will mass produce the chip and prices will plunge. The Chinese are good at that.

Believe me it is impossible to overemphasize the significance of this development.

Besides a potential price war, the flexibility and policy maneuverability this offers China is immense. It is a geopolitical uppercut.

There are still a couple of pertinent questions about their capability. Did they sidestep sanctions by re-routing Western machines through other countries or did they develop the machines domestically. What process did they use? How efficient is the manufacturing process and more (i.e how many usable chips are they getting per wafer)?

Regardless of the answers to those questions, this is huge. I am pleasantly surprised.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:


yes - which is why sanusi bent the knee for ganduje

all you are saying in the end is that emefiele was picked [by GEJ] because he is a yes man - and retained by buhari for the same reason

It does not matter what you call him.

The bottom line is everyone picks lieutenants they can comfortably work with.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:


this is actually why tinubu is advocating for an ERP solution

it would have been close to impossible to properly track what was being spent or mis managed when you have an editable trail and sometimes no trail at all.

for all sanusis faults, we probably would not have come to this if he had been in the seat during the Buhari years

Sanusi would have bent the knee or be served Kuje beans.

Emefiele's actions were to avoid the Onnoghen treatment.

Buhari is a socialist. Cheap naira, cheap fuel, and social programs are immutable pillars of his economic vision.

Anyone who did not subscribe to that viewpoint would have gotten the boot.

-Lord

Ibime:


It wasn't 50 billion, it was 18.5bln, and he didn't allege it was stolen, he included mismanagement. The truth will be billions though not 18.5

But the damage was done by the fictitious $50B sum.

He cannot plead ignorance. He knew exactly what he was doing when he spouted that figure.

Needless to say, that mismanagement excuse is pure capping.

The CBN recently revealed they'd not received sales revenue from the NNPC going back to August 2022. Should Shonubi announce that $50B is missing? Should Powell say $1T is missing because the Pentagon has never passed an audit?

Should every Central Bank governor in the world start promulgating imaginary numbers under the guise of criticism.

GEJ should have locked Sanusi up for the remainder of his term for that stunt he pulled.

That stunt by the way is why successive governments will, without exception, keep him at arms length. Dude is a walking grenade.

-Lord

grandstar:


It was actually confirmed to be true.

GEJ was a weak president and he allowed his underlings to take advantage of him
He was someone from the start that was unprepared for this office.

SLS criticizes everyone and any party. He once said he can never be a politician as he is not one to tell people what they want to hear.

I need receipts for this!

Sanusi lied! He pulled that figure out of his a$$ for parochial reasons.

-Lord

lordally:


The man with the Encyclopedia brain.... thanks a lot. I've been busy with work and all. Na whybi never update the thread

Settle in and take your time. Stay blessed chief!

-Lord

rationalhuman:
No one has invited Nigeria to be a part of G20, Nigeria does not fit into the criteria of G20 membership Nigeria is Big unproductive so called Giant a Giant indeed in terms of Population.

Host Country asked member states of G20 to include African Union to be part of of the exclusive group to be a representative of African Countries, Which china does not want to happen for obvious reasons and will try to create obstacles.

The bolded is untrue.

China, the US, and India all back the AU becoming a permanent member of the G20.

In fact, China pushed for it before the US. And India, a BRICS+ member, is the first to make actionable moves to bring it to fruition. We'll see how it shakes out.

-Lord

Congrats on the move LordAlly!

-Lord

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-31/us-farmers-export-less-corn-than-world-leading-brazil-in-2023-2024

China signed a trade deal with Brazil last year to increase grain purchases.

This year, Brazil dislodged the US to become the largest exporter of corn after 40 long years.

Some would say it's just corn, but last year America's export haul from agricultural produce was $200B.

I'm all for this kind of behind-the-scenes moves. More action; less posturing.

-Lord

zoroby:
Omoh, Foundation is 🔥 🔥🔥 10/10. I did not see the twist coming...

Co-signed.

S2 is effing lit.

-Lord

sketcherJ:
oh before the cheating saga she once said that and Steve continued the relationship?

It's there in the OP. She said that in 2021.

The Simp did not read in between the lines.

Women that want out always give glaring signals. They can't hide their displeasure.

When you ignore those signals, they see it as a challenge, and act out. That is how uber-spicy breakfasts like this get prepared.

-Lord

Regex:


Marjorie weh this my man deh use make mouth with...😂 😂 omo this life no balance oh.

He f*cked around and found out.

You can sense the extra layer of bitterness when women deal with simps. It's almost palpable.

A 50 year old with puff puff a$$ saying she has elephant bedroom energy and her husband is now sexually boring.

That was an implicit admission she was already cheating. Since Harvey did not get the memo, she turned it up to 11 with the humiliation.

All of this publicity is over the $200m. She is done with Harvey and does not want to keep up appearances anymore.

-Lord

.

budaatum:


In reality, no single voice speaks for any country with perhaps the exception of Russia and Saudi Arabia and China, and assuming a country speaks as 'one single minded entity' is a disregard of politics through which was is voiced is negotiated; and political change, which in many countries is 4-8 years and is a change of voice and often also what is said. Tinubu's one voice about attacking the coupists in Niger is a case in point. He spoke with his one voice and other voices opposed him.

Democracies, after all, do create avenues for other voices to be heard, so why make out they aren't heard "in geopolitics"?

That's because they aren't heard.

In the US, for instance, should Trump become the POTUS again: He may stop funding Ukraine and end the War. But he sure as hell will not close all 100+ US bases and turn inward.

Internal conflicts as far as geopolitics is concerned only affects near-term resolutions. Over longer periods, virtually all countries have what one might call "a DNA" that presents as a single voice.

The UK lost their spot as the Apex superpower. Has that stopped the country from being a rabid warmonger knocking heads in Europe and across the world? That's their DNA.

It explains a lot about geopolitics if you look closely.

The vast majority of the country may oppose Tinubu's Niger gambit, but if you read pansophist 's earlier reply; you'll understand that Nigeria is a Western client state. All regions in Nigeria lean West. The plurality of our major politicos lean West. This "internal conflict" you describe relating to the Niger coup is akin to the "internal conflict" that the Germans had when Russia launched the SMO.

In both cases, Western interests prevailed.

In fact, the US maintains a gargantuan force structure so it can impose its will regardless of "internal conflicts".

And that is America's "DNA". Which is why the China-Russia led effort to enforce multipolarity is gaining steam. No one is under any illusion that we can reason the US out of their connate nature to never accept peer powers. Team Red destabilized Iraq and Afghanistan. Team Blue destabilized Libya and Syria.

Millennia of recorded history does not support the hypothesis that there are habitual "internal conflicts" that can radically change the fundamental character of a nation's foreign policy.

In instances, like Nasser's Egypt that flip-flopped allegiances wantonly; the primary objective and long-term trajectory was to retain Egypt's position as the Arab world's pre-eminent military power. Everyone within the Egyptian polity implicitly understood this. Till date, all Egyptian rulers balance relationships with the West and East for the same reason.

Internal conflict could not help France after it paid for Russian helicopter carriers and the US forced them to sell the ships to Egypt. That transient victory that Washington got will not end French attempts to continue to seek out avenues to assert itself; because that is their DNA. From 1969 to 2009, France voluntarily withdrew from the NATO Military Command Structure. The only country other than Greece to do that. Again, it's their DNA. The French can't wait for the day that US power recedes and they become the dominant force in Continental Europe. A deep yearning forged by Napoleon's and the Sun King's extraordinary exploits.

Internal conflicts are just that internal conflicts. The reality of geopolitics is that there are red lines, sanctions, historical experiences (like the Century of Humiliation for the Chinese) and other factors that dampen the ramifications of internal dissensions and ultimately compels countries to act like they're speaking with one voice.

-Lord

pansophist:


I like the countries that were invited to join. The list seems strategic, as they are independent in the truest sense of Independence.

Are you not concerned that the picks will fuel the notion that BRICS is a talk shop?

By the way, who did India sponsor?

I know Brazil insisted on Argentina. Russia penned Iran. South Africa pushed for Ethiopia.

I'm leaning towards UAE. It is India's #2 and #3 top import and export partner.

According to Wikipedia, Nigeria has applied to join BRICS, I don't know how true it is. But I doubt Nigeria will join anytime soon, because Nigeria seems like a puppet to me.

In Africa for example, west Africa is the least organised, developed and independent region. How can you explain that in the presence of ECOWAS, France still manipulate the francophone counries?

Libya borders ECOWAS via Niger, but the political situation of the ECOWAS community is so weak, that NATO can destroy Libya without any repercussion from the bloc.

See how ECOWAS is barking at the instruction of the West to invade Niger, such speed would be expected from the bloc to deal with poverty, insurgency, corruption, regional integration, from transportation to economy etc.

France still control the currencies, economy and resources of Francophone countries, meanwhile, ECOWAS sees no reason to fight for the freedom of its member states.

Nigeria that should lead is so deeply corrupted and messed up, that the West African region has officially become the most messed up region on Africa.

The most developed region in Africa is the North, followed by the South, then the east then the West. And in the West, if you minus Ghana, ivory Coast and Nigeria, the region is a largely in a pitiable condition.

Right now, you'll always come across videos of other African States criticizing western policies across the continent, but I hardly come across such from Nigerian leaders. Nigeria leaders are gatekeepers of Western hegemony in the region.

That's the only reasonable conclusion I can reach. And that's sad. We really have a bleak future and a bloody struggle ahead.

Nigeria's case is not only sad. It's actually excruciatingly painful.

Thankfully, the Global South can topple the Hegemony without our help.

-Lord

budaatum:
LordAdam, I read your Brazil, Russia, India, etc, as if you are speaking of one single minded entity. Like there is one single person making decisions for these countrys, when in my mind I see the internal political tussle to determine who decides who they align with.

Take Nigeria alone. Russia has scuppered the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline from Warri to Europe that some have wanted built and some haven't. Russia definitely didn't want it built, and also had to retaliate for Nord Stream. On the other side are T-SGP investors going way back to the 70s in expectation of reaping trillions of dollars selling gas to Europe. Either side needs their supporter at the top, and while Nigeria democratically chose its, Niger has decided to choose its with a Russian assisted coup, which some say us resisting is a war against Northern Nigeria. All countrys are internally conflicted about their alignments, is my point, with some of us Nigerians being anti or pro various alignments.

But as I said, "I read", and not, that is what you wrote. So, just correcting my own ignorance I suppose, and informing you of it.

Do flesh out your point.

In geopolitics, it is customary to describe the foreign policy directions of countries in a manner that may be construed as these countries "speaking of one single minded entity".

-Lord

@pansophist and all:

Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE, Egypt, Argentina, Ethiopia are BRICS new members.

Hmm!

-Lord

Regex:


If them mention you, mention me. Flight from UK to USA, can be gotten for £350 BA direct flight. Yet one for Nigeria is fucking expensive. Nigeria is 6hrs and USA is 9hrs 30min.

On that foreign air fare, I had a back-and-forth about that on NL and the dude was saying there's nothing off about charging $3-5K for a 6 hrs flight.

Nigerians don't mind being fleeced.

Imagine that as of today, none of the Big 3 telecom operators offer a flat plan with Unlimited Calls and Text. In 2023.

-Lord

mrvitalis:
I honestly don't get why u can get flight from London to Paris for under £50 ... There are flights under £20

Their pilots earn more, their workers generally earn more than Nigerian aviation workers by a factor of over 7

Aviation fuel is way cheaper in Nigeria

So why exactly is flight far more expensive in Nigeria

I honestly can't get it honestly

seborrhic:

Honestly,the distortion and paradox is puzzling.
Far higher paid workers,higher taxes,more regular and therefore costlier maintenance, yet their fares are still cheaper than that of Nigeria.
It just doesn't add up and doesn't seem to make sense.

Please, if someone provides a plausible answer, do mention me.

I see fares in Asia and I'm flabbergasted by ours.

-Lord

JimD:


Yes. Recession causes deflation. Covid-19 was a worldwide recession. And every smart country funnelled money into their economy at the time. They encouraged small biz loans, mortgages and deployed money to people for local and foreign investments. Nigeria's Central bank under Emefiele didn't.

After Covid-19 when it was time to revert back as worldwide inflation had already started (in part fueled by Russia-Ukraine war), our guys were sleeping, while countries like the US were working to improve their currencies by playing with interest rates.

These ones were just borrowing people naira and dollar anyhow, then borrowing from The World bank, China etc. to run a very expensive government. So it's just simple demand and supply. When there's limited supply vs demand, price increases, that's your currency in respect to other countries. When you increase supply vs demand, price decreases, that's why the naira will keep going down unless drastic measures are taken by the Central Bank.

The submissions in bold are incorrect.

The CBN liberally disbursed interventions and cautiously increased interest rates by at least 600 basis points.

You don't have to make up fallacies to back your subjective interpretation of events.

-Lord

pansophist:


I think expansion should go first, otherwise, the US-led West will play a fast one by playing the role of a spoiler, by, for example, bringing potential countries into its sphere of influence.

You make a very valid point. The truism "delay is dangerous" may apply here.

Can't discount that.

You can see it in India. Just within the past few months, India is gradually becoming the black sheep of Brics. Also, India is one leg in, one leg out. They are a part of Quad, which is against the unspoken spirit of the Brics.

You can't be in a military alliance with the West such as the Quad, created specifically for aggression against China, then also be in an economic alliance such as BRICS, with the same China.

In a time where all Brics members are discussing issues about the new currency, only India is disputing it and working against it. Washington just gave Modi a red-carpet invite, where issues that undermine Brics were discussed.

And India seems to be pursuing strategic ambiguity, but in reality, it's a beech that cant just dedicate itself to one side and contribute to moving humanity forward, even after all what they have suffered in the hands of the west.

On India, I see it differently.

India is the OG heavyweight of the Non-Aligned Movement. You might say we are past having fence-sitters. But the historicity is unequivocal.

In addition, there is a deeper rationale for their ambiguity. Access to privileged technology.

China + Russia and the US are a match on most counts. But the US and its diverse network of vassals maintain a vise-grip stranglehold on key technologies. These technologies have to be transferred willingly or extracted by clandestine means.

Unfortunately, that door has been shut for China and Russia. They have to spend more time and resources basically reinventing the wheel. When particularly in China's case, only a few years ago they could dangle access to the Chinese market and Western companies will fall over themselves and move mountains to share technologies and establish joint ventures.

It jives with Pareto's principle. 80% is easy to get. The top 20% are harder and the West still enjoys a commanding lead.

For instance, the machine to manufacture the most advanced chips can only be made by ASML. A Dutch company that America insisted be partly domiciled in the US. Each machine costs $200m. There are grades of advanced materials that you can only source from Western countries.

Russia has its hands full trying to maintain its strategic leads in carefully nitpicked sectors and sustaining the economy of Eurasia / Central Asia to match the wider range of innovation from the G7. It's different for China. For every sector they hack brilliantly like battery technology, there is at least one more where initial successes tapered off and they have to rely on tech transfers.

India still has an in with the West. And are even further behind than China and Russia. During Modi's recent trip, the US signed off on jet engine tech transfer. General Electric to Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. To put that in perspective, China's homegrown COMAC C919 passenger jet will use a GE's jet engine designed from scratch. General Electric, Pratt & Whitney (owned by Raytheon), Rolls Royce have reams of IP that'll take decades to independently develop. That is one niche industry with an outsized economic impact. There are others.

So if Russia and China are in direct confrontation with the West, a premature development as they both would have loved to match and exceed the West in more sectors before any showdown; then it may be ill-advised to get India and Brazil to do the same.

Israel for instance has secretly handed over sensitive Western IPs to China to curry political favor. They still maintain strategic ties with Russia for obvious reasons. The Global South still needs access to Western tech to scale the middle income trap.

If it wasn't for advanced tech, the GDP per capita in the top Second World countries will be in the mid five figures. We've already mastered most foundational and mid-level tech. Virtually all the appliances in our homes can be manufactured in the Global South. There's virtually no infrastructure that's beyond the Global South from skyscrapers to high-speed trains to HVDC power lines. But it is those special areas like the life sciences that the West withholds and gatekeeps. It is the high value of these products and services that enable them to work same or less hours and get paid several multiples more. As well as pry our brightest and ambitious minds with full-bore scholarships + generous compensation to apply ourselves and be in the company of exceptional peers.

In light of this, it makes sense for India to retain a direct line to Washington. Besides the Middle East, no region has been as rewarding for India as the West. And let's not forget, China toed this path too. They pragmatically disengaged from the Soviets to secure the bag from the West and decades later are now chummy with Russia and declaring a "no limits" friendship.

But here is the important tidbit, we have to be sure this is a carefully-orchestrated charade. India shouldn't simply repeat the mistakes of the past and slyly hobble a budding global alliance. BRICS is not NAM. However, the coordination should occur behind the scenes in dim backrooms away from the cameras and symposiums. If that were happening, we'll see some byproducts of these discussions; which in fairness I'm not seeing a lot of.

And I think China and India share equal responsibility. China more so. The Chinese have to take the lead on this because I'm sorry to say but the Indians are not renowned for their long-term strategic planning. A lot of questions that the Chinese and Russians answered long before the US became a nation are still unresolved for the Indians.

But what I see is a lot of coasting. Not enough strategic cooperation.

The Philippines is another example. Just last year Marcos succeeded Duterte as the president of The Philippines, he made a 180-degree U-turn to the policy of the previous administration. It is not news that the US played a dirty hand to help him win the election.

Duterte was pro-China/Russia, against hegemony, and will bring The Philippines into Brics. He was hated by the West, but isn't it expected? Lack of administrative consistency is a bug in democracies.

Now a military base has been designated to be built in the Philippines to deter China, meanwhile with Duterte, it would be an economic partnership with China. The US operates in the dark, and timing is one of the ways to counter the US.

The Philippines like much of the Global South will discard principles for a quick buck. If the US comes to Nigeria with a $50B 3-year offer, we'll put every Chinese migrant in the country on a one-way voyage on one of the many empty container ships that depart our shores every week.

This is why I said I favored deeper integration before expansion. Much of the Global South does not have much to offer BRICS at the moment. The bids to join are primarily opportunistic plays. Saudi Arabia is itching to join because the West is going green. Every country in Africa wants cheap loans they don't expect to repay (they'd go back to plead for debt forgiveness).

But when they join, they will all have requests and objections. And like India will be trying to practice strategic ambiguity and stalling plans because they still want Western FDI and stack the fugazi fiat of the Golden Billion.

And there are loads and loads of opportunities for bi-directional collaborations and co-operations within BRICS. Brazil has an aircraft manufacturer that has cornered the lion share of the global regional jet market. If you've flown domestically in Nigeria, odds are you've flown in one of their jets. Embraer. Embraer, Huawei, Tata should be to BRICS what the likes of Boeing/Airbus, Volkswagen, and LVMH are to the West.

Of the top 10 exporting countries, China is #1. India is #10. #2 and #9 are all Western-aligned. UK exports $1T worth of goods annually. 65% is to the EU and the US. I know it's too early to call for a tightly-woven interdependency of this nature, but it is illustrative of the unrealized potential.

So I think that Brics should evolve to be more sophisticated like the EU, playing a key role in both economic and military communities of nations regardless of political and geographical affiliations.

Then clear-cut policies should be enacted to integrate new members, of which such policies would be bed rocked on being part of a bloc, and no servings of two masters, like India.

If this is achieved, then the world will fully be undisputably multipolar, then BRICS would be a formidable bloc. Their once-in-a-year summit doesn't come off as serious to me, it is too slow in real actions.

Agree wholeheartedly.

Unfortunately, it seems that the BRICS is still something of a social club.

They all just seem content to want to apply as much soft pressure to get the US to fall under its own weight and due to self-sabotage, then swoop in for the spoils. This is not a thrilling strategy.

The experience we'll gain from taking the path you elegantly described is far more invaluable and useful.

A multipolar world is inevitable anyway. So how we get there may not matter all that much in the end.

-Lord