I am on this table.

Booked a flight a week ahead.
It was canceled two days prior to departure date.
I booked with a different airline.
Contacted airline A to get a refund and I was told they'd deduct 40%.
This was last week.

They're obviously baiting me to get the standard "Do you know who I am" Nigerian reaction.
Because of $100.
Have money and you'd enjoy Nigeria! This is the enjoyment...

-Lord

Taking advantage of the recent hike in the interest rate by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and short-term appreciation of the exchange rate, the FPIs made huge returns and withdrew their money from the Nigerian economy, BusinessDay earlier reported.

Olaolu Boboye, Lead Economist at CardinalStone Limited, an investment bank based in Lagos, said foreign investors are exiting for what they perceive as stable, in an earlier interview.

Investors have made tons of money from when they came in the first quarter. When they arrived, they were offered as much as 26 percent on Treasury bills and even more from the naira appreciation. “Another which is more fundamental is that we are not seeing adequate fiscal support,” he stated.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/naira-weakens-to-1402-at-official-market-on-low-liquidity

Uhm, BusinessDay will need to share more evidence to support their alarming claim.

But if the much touted FPI are already leaving, Cardi B is royally f*cked.
I anticipated this will happen - it's inevitable - but this is too soon.

Maybe those who came in H2 last year are leaving, which is a worrying but expected trend, but it's a different kettle of fish if the Q1 class are prematurely heading for the exits.
Liquidity dropped since the Mr went to whitewash his interventions in Washington, but this news better not catch on and spread like wildfire.

-Lord

iLegendd:


For now, trust is the issue amongst us Nigerians. Even someone who used to be trustworthy can change tomorrow.

So, a lot of thoughts need to go into it. For now, other exchanges are still doing P2P. Let's watch and see if they'll bring all down.

Nigerians are resourceful.
Till date, PayPal does not officially allow Nigerians to receive or withdraw money, but Nigerians find a way to transact using PayPal.

There was P2P before the exchanges: P2P will remain after the exchanges.
It'll come with its downsides. But folks will have to adapt or perish.

The industry is still in denial.
When it finally accepts that the government is out to destroy it, it'll get serious and adopt mechanisms to blunt the government's amateurish attempts to stifle progress.
And uh, a special Darwin Award go to the short-sighted crypto enthusiasts who joined the chorus earlier in the year when the pressure was high to go after the P2P market. You'd see them on this thread or elsewhere in the interwebs say something to the effect of, "I trade crypto but..." Congratulations, there will be no more safe, convenient, and cost-effective way to onboard your fiat. Because the alternatives that will emerge will not be as fun.

After the P2P exchanges go, you'll send NGN payment to an exchanger and he'll refuse to send you your coin at the pre-agreed rate because rate has changed. And there'll be no customer care agent to arbitrate at no charge. That's to say nothing about the spread, Rather than the current N5-10 between buying and selling, we'll have upwards of N50 and higher rates to reflect the increased risk. Oh, and the scams, will be more prevalent.

So do prep for what is to come.
But crypto is going nowhere.
This is Nigeria. After God na government, no b for crypto. Governments have a short shelf life, crypto does not. P2P will outlast the mfs.
To the traders, be careful out there. A plus point is that you know for certain who you'd not be voting for in 2027.

-Lord

Nazgul:
This one is still a teenager na. Fear wouldn't allow him talk about love to the girl.

But there's still hope for him cos he's intelligent. When he graduates and gets a good job, nice apartment and potable ride, he'll come back to eat the fruit of his labour.

Graduation is too far ahead.
In final year and NYSC, dude will cook.

Right now, he has to learn a valuable life lesson that that gender are ungrateful, conniving little sh*ts.
He'd need that when he gets into the real world.

-Lord

Ellexy:
Has Nigerians ever had it this worse?

It remains to be seen if Tinubu will draw from OBJ's precedence and perform a major shakeup over the next few months and possibly a cabinet dissolution (OBJ did this too in January 2001).

He needs to do something fast for his own sake.
This is not even about 2027.
Southern presidents are vilified more severely than their Northern counterparts.

If he cares even the tiniest bit for his legacy and the future of his political family, he'll sit up.
This is objectively the worst start to a Presidency in the Fourth Republic.

-Lord

WrriterNg:
Has anyone noticed that all US warships look really old compared to Russian warships.

I've scoured the whole internet I've not seen a new US warship commissioned in the last 6 years.

Russia on the other hands continue to produce and commission new ships even as at yesterday.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_ships_of_the_United_States_Navy

-Lord

Ibime:
Is Cardoso exhausted @LordAdam16 ?

Nope.

He has a firm mandate to take the rate to the sub-$1000 region.
So he'll keep trying.
It'll cost him more money this time around, but he has carte blanche to do whatever it takes.

To back my assertion, he did try to peg the rate through the familiar $10K per BDC allotment this Monday. That had no effect on the market.
The EFCC blocked hundreds of accounts to rattle the P2P segment yesterday. That did nothing as well.

Next week and beyond they'll make new moves.

Ultimately, I'm of the opinion that market participants may make way and let him move the rate to 700 or whatever his target is.
At this point, there will be a speculative attack on the naira. And the foreign investment houses will join in.

A Millennium--the hedge fund--trader made $40M on the Egyptian Pound in March.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-14/millennium-trader-scored-40-million-windfall-in-egypt-fx-plunge

He often made about $50 million in annual profit for the Wall Street bank by trading the Egyptian pound as well as the Nigerian naira, the people said.

At sub-$1000 (the lower the better) when it is near unanimous that the naira is overvalued, folks like these will join the party, the FPIs will turn off the tap (it's a small club), and Cardi B will be like a deer caught in the headlights.

-Lord

grandstar:
The true value of the Naira sits between 1,300-1,400 based on present fundamentals. Anything stronger will harm the economy. It seems Tinubu is more perturbed about a loss of face over a dwindling Naira than accepting reality.

The nation needs to reinvent it. The dependence on crude oil sales for the bulk of the countryš forex is a scourge and needs to end.

More reforms are needed but this should be a start.

Tinubu and co wanted a desperate win.
Otherwise the stars aligned perfectly for them to gradually lower the rate over the next 8 months to 1200 and possibly 1000 by mid next year.
But the clowns lacking foresight did their usual fire brigade nonsense and wasted the golden opportunity.

Liquidity was up. FPIs finally bit the bullet. Investment appetite was slowly returning. The vast majority of the major international houses backed a resurgence. The international development institutions greenlit the policies. And yet, somehow they royally f*cked up this gift.

This is on Cardoso! He claims to be independent but he let the politicians pressure him into an unforced error.
Would it really be so bad if the rate was currently 1400-1500 and our reserve was growing? And in the pipeline were the $2B WB loan, $6+ Eurobond, and 3 entire quarters of at least $2B per quarter in FPIs. If they'd simply kept it cool for the next two quarters, all of those FDI commitments would have started materializing by Q4.

In the interim, they'd have kept up with the SAP and tax reforms. These will boost the fundamentals (government revenue is up btw) and we'd have quite some time to properly orchestrate and put in motion a holistic program to boost exports massively.

But now the entire planet has caught them being naughty and they risk derailing whatever tiny progress they'd made in early Q1.
Investors skipping us for Egypt and liquidity in the official market falling back to last year levels. They better pray these bad numbers and perception are transient.

-Lord

emmaodet:



I guess they still don't believe the joker Iran pulled against isreal

Don't mind them.
When Iran sent missiles into Pakistan to take out non-state militants, Pakistan deployed its fighter jets into Iran and struck targets in retaliation.
Pakistan publicly accepted responsibility and promised a repeat.

Meanwhile our Chosen loudmouths who receive their weaponry direct from advanced celestial civilizations had a major airbase struck by Iranian missiles but are too chicken and humiliated to publicly take responsibility for their embarrassing attempt at retaliation.

-Lord

nihilistjnr:
OkpaNsukkaisBae have you seen this article on front page?

https://www.nairaland.com/8067922/israeli-weapon-damaged-iranian-air

You guys should go easy on propaganda, lest you come down with diarrhea.
That news is a cognitive test.
Believe it and you're a confirmed lemming.

I can at least understand the ignorance of the average Nigerian Christian who is completely brainwashed by Evangelical messaging and can't tell the difference between an F-22 and an F-16.
But you should not be elated to announce to the world that you are similarly challenged and are willing to swallow implausible tales as long as they emerge from a "trusted" source.

Here is the roundup of what happened in this Iran-Israel blow-up.
Israel struck Iran's embassy compound.
Iran delivered the largest drone+cruise+ballistic missile barrage in the history of the Middle East with direct hits on the base hosting the jets that carried out the strike.
Israel promised a painful retaliation and used its terror links operating in Iran to launch less than 5 ineffective quadcopter drones.
I want to believe you've encountered a DJI drone before. If you have not, use Google search.
That a so-called military superpower used proxies to send quadcopters in retaliation to ballistic missiles from a peer would be deeply embarrassing for any country with self-respect.

But this is Israel we're talking about.
Where might fails, myth picks up the slack.
No sir, we did not only ask our terror partners to launch toys. We also fired invisible missiles from inside Israel that no one detected. These missiles, sorry UFOs, warped space and time and used a multi-dimensional shortcut to skip Jordan and other interceding countries to appear in Iran and magically destroy an S-300 radar. And we're so proud of our efforts we will never accept responsibility for deploying this alien tech.

Heck, Hezbollah has successfully attacked Israeli air defense assets with gimped missiles.
https://allisrael.com/israel-admits-idf-radar-base-on-mt-meron-suffered-damage-from-hezbollah-attack
All of these smokes and mirrors is deeply humiliating for a chihuahua that has finally been forced to choke on humble pills.

-Lord

dvkot:
yea, USA did ask Iran to allow Israel to retaliate but let's keep watching there may be more who knows

Whatever happens, Iran should strike back.
Even if it is another measured response.

The new equation must be etched in stone.
Attack Iranian interest directly anywhere in the world and missiles will rain in Israel.

That's the only way to get Israel to tone down their aggression.

-Lord

chrisooblog:
This business day article seems to back your assertion.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/data-shows-cbn-not-defending-naira-with-fx-reserves/

I'm curious how sustainable is the Naira turnaround for the short to medium term?

As Itsrm would say, the truth will finally come out.

First, they said the CBN is not intervening.
It has not sold dollars in the NAFEM window to move the rate.
It has only sold measly $15m three or four times this year to BDCs.

Now, they're saying the CBN has actually sold $581m through the NAFEM window.
Very soon they'll say they've revised the figure higher because they did not aggregate the payments correctly.

This is from the DMO.
https://www.dmo.gov.ng/debt-profile/external-debts/debt-service/4588-nigeria-s-actual-external-debt-service-payments-from-january-to-december-2023/file
Total debt service payments for last year, from January to December, was $3.5B.

But we're supposed to believe that debt payments in one month alone gulped so much money that we didn't just use part of the massive inflows the CBN has been receiving to much fanfare. But we had to dip into the reserves to the tune of $2.1B.
They'd tell us what foreign loan Buhari and Tinubu took last year to cause such a perplexing rise and who approved it.

This is what happens when there is trust deficit and lack of credibility.
Whatever they say next will be viewed with suspicion because they're allergic to transparency.

-Lord

Ibime:


Central Bank Governor and Petroleum minister are two different briefs. We expect half truths from CBN so long as their data is correct. It is not seen as lying, but picking out the stats that favour a positive narrative. So long as their stats are truthful, they can give whatever interpretation they want about the stats. Just like CFO before quarter end who will suddenly find a favourable true-up, or rebase their assumptions on 365+ Bad Debt calculation in order to hit a profit figure analysts are expecting before quarterly reports are due, in order to save the stock from tanking. Finance is about massaging the message and managing the results in lean periods, until a bountiful period allows you to clean out all the cobwebs and absorb all your writedowns. Or alternatively, you bring out all your dirty laundry when the economy crashes (which I suspect many NSE CFOs are currently doing, burying their bad news amongst the greater bad news.)

For me as long as a central bank publish their stats and stats are accurate, Governor can paint whatever picture he wants. Cardi B problem is that Emefiele so fücked up the reserves, our central bank can't afford to give full disclosure for now

I for one don't believe our Foreign Reserves figure of $32bln. I have never seen where CBN will hold $32bln unencumbered and be begging hat in hand for loans of $3bln, $1bln and $600m to stabilise Naira. Loans for Naira defence are a foreign concept in our monetary policy. With $32bln, you can defend Naira for up to 3 years before it hits zero

I believe the JP Morgan reports that most of the $32bln is encumbered and this is why I believe Cardi B is not in a position to give full disclosure because the naked truth will tank Nigeria. The Afrexim loan alone is enough signalling that all is not well. Cardi B is doing his best under the circumstance.

That's really the crux of it, isn't it?
He should show his workings. Lay it all out.

I can listen to Cardi B on various issues like the current bank recapitalization, inflation control, regulation in the payments service industry, et cetera.
But on the FX market, because of how politicized it's become, I'm only laser focused on the stats and figures. His narratives are for the consumption of his cheerleaders.

If JP Morgan had not shared that report, we'd not have known the degree of encumbrances on the reserves.
And Cardi B would have been painting rosy narratives as to the true state of the reserves as he is now about his moves in the FX market.

-Lord

User09:
Plenty grammar, arrogance, noise, pontificating but zero substance. This Lord guy dey funny me die .

Walahi he has zero to little knowledge of fundamentals. Just associating and garbling terms together.

My apologies Lord, I know this is a personal attack but I just couldnt help it . Just allow me this moment, I'm still celebrating Arsenal's L

You are excused.

Arsenal should be made to give up their CL slot.
Still ruing their weekend disaster. Then somehow they capitulate to one of the worst Bayern teams in recent history.
Absolute wankers.

-Lord

BlueRayDick:


Nobody said the CBN governor shouldn't do his job .

Nobody said defending the naira is wrong or illegal .

In fact, nobody really cared about whether Naira was being defended or not until Tinubu led APC government made defending the naira look like a bad thing .

The CBN under Cardoso bold faced told us naira has been floated and henceforth the CBN will no longer determine the exchange rate but that only interaction between demand and supply will be determining the exchange rate . The old practice of defending the naira or intervention by CBN will no longer happen .

So we are only curious to know if like most of Tinubu's policies that didn't work out as planned; perhaps they have quietly gone back to the drawing board without "louding it ". At least that was what happened with petroleum subsidy .

It's nothing deep at all

I cannot for the life of me understand why they're willing to die on this hill.

It's like catching a toddler with food smeared all over their cute faces and they still insist on whatever divinity their tiny brains can reference that they ate nothing.

It's embarrassing.
Heck, the FPIs don't care that deeply about the immediate intervention.
Most of the investment houses are united in their belief that the CBN can indeed push the rates to the sub-1000 region and that they should.
The most dyed-in-the-wool speculator knew an intervention was imminent when the naira slid deeply.

But to these hyper-partisan folks, it must never escape their lips that the CBN is intervening.
That is a bad bad word that summons the Grim Reaper.

The most negative development in this Tinubu administration is narrative control and radical politicization of everything.
Nothing is sacred. Nothing is spared.
Rather than debate properly about the nature, length, and medium term efficacy of this intervention, we're still yelling over each other about word choice. Beyond shameful!

-Lord

Ibime:


A Central Bank Governors job by definition is to avoid spooking the markets. Propaganda can't be levelled against him, he is doing his job which includes softening the message and obfuscating the naked truth if need be (not saying he is). He is simply doing his job towards a greater goal of protecting the economy.

Precisely why data is of the utmost importance when parsing the statements of central bank governors.

Unfortunately, under Cardi B's regime, they've been quick to share favorable data but deliberately withhold hard data that'd offer clarity.

This is a Governor who sent out a spokeswoman on a late week afternoon to organize the media and wax lyrical that billions had come in after the just-concluded TBill auction. Information one could already glean from TBill auction data and the FMDQ.
Yet now he has refused to state exactly what debts accrued since Q2 2023 could possibly be responsible for hiking our traditional debt service payments so high that it results in a negative $2B reserve depletion.
More importantly, considering he's already taken more debt at the start of this year at worse interest rates (double digit) and already preparing to take on more, what does it mean for our monetary position going forward.

This is an administration where the Minister of State for Petroleum can go on the record and insist that subsidy is not being paid on gasoline.
Forgive me for not taking the words of a central bank governor of the same administration at face value. As folks would say, he should show workings.

-Lord

OasisX:




.....where is your evidence that he is telling lies?! Lord said he has hurriedly borrowed $600m to boost the foreign reserve and you believe?! LOL!

I'm quoting him.
He is in the US.
He said $600m will enter the reserves between yesterday and today.

Total volume, and that is the entire volume by everyone in the market in the last two days is less than $500m.
So where did the $600m come from if not from a loan?

They're expecting $1B loan from AfriExim.

Cardoso's statements are not the smoking gun you think they are.

-Lord

Itsrm:


Lol, he actually just confirmed they are defending the currency and hopes they won't need to in the future.

Don't mind these folks.
I'm truly taken aback by the fierce partisanship introduced into the economic space.

Dude kept talking about intentions.
Tell us what you are doing, you're yapping about intentions and future.

You're not using the reserves to defend the naira but you went to the US to beg for 600m to add to the reserves "between yesterday and today".
Yesterday's total volume in the NAFEM is less than 250m. Today is less than 200m.
So how are you able to add $600m in two days. Or is there a shadow market besides the official NAFEM window?

He should tell us what foreign debt Buhari and Tinubu took last year to drive up our debt service payments that'd make us expend 2B in less than a month.

We all know what they're doing, but they've sworn not to be truthful.

-Lord

Itsrm:


One day, the truth will come out.

User09 about to send a strongly worded email to Bloomberg to defend his beau Cardi B.

-Lord

chidekings:
this youngman has been cordial in his replies to you.....but ur replies is full of subtle insults and an air of superiority over his stance.

That's because he never has data to back up his erroneous statements.
Thus I view him as an irritant.

If he continues to shadow me when I point out the CBN peg rates, he should expect similar or worse treatment.

-Lord

User09:


Look it'll be better to ask questions rather than sink deep in your ignorance.

I have had most of the answers to your questions if you noticed but I've just been baiting you from the onset and you keep sinking while trying to lord off your " ignorance"

Are you even aware there's something called interbank markets??. I should help you with a basic research when I can just look at reserves data and pontificate like you

You can't provide data to back up your statement.
Now move along.

And remember to get a standby defib. Because you'll be needing it whenever I point out the CBN is pegging the rates on this thread.

-Lord.

monerozi5590:



CBN has been intervening in the forex market na. I don't understand this your point by saying there's no evidence of CBN intervening in the market.


Here is Rotus explanation. Nigeria borrowed huge amount of dollars in selling bonds to defend the Naira and this is currently what's happening in the market.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i_yH7B7zRyw?si=fXFje58hdelah6Sh

Dude will still quote you and tell you with a straight face there is no evidence of the CBN intervening in the market.

“If you are not aware, kindly note that the CBN last week sold over $200m to the banks below N1,500/dollar. Similarly, this week, the CBN has on two consecutive days sold FX to banks at rates we understand to be in the $1,450 range. We hope this information helps guide your decisions regarding the rates and spreads you get from your banks.”

Culled from the link I included in my reply to him.
punchng.com/cbn-sells-over-300m-to-banks-as-naira-gains

He still quoted me to repeat the "no evidence" fallacy.

I have given up on him.

-Lord

.

@User09

If my use of the term "pegging" triggers you, get a stress ball or a fidget spinner.
I will not stop using it.

This is PUNCH referencing an industry source who drew attention to the CBN selling $300m to banks in February.
https://punchng.com/cbn-sells-over-300m-to-banks-as-naira-gains

This is the state of our reserves as of Friday the 12th.
https://cbn.gov.ng/IntOps/Reserve.asp


The Americans say "if it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck".

Cardi B should continue pegging the rate and depleting the reserve to prop up the naira.
His chickens will come home to roost.

-Lord

User09:


Again, I dont know how many times this needs to be said, CBN isnt pegging any rate

This needs to be reiterated especially for those following. What CBN has been doing so far is what we call market signaling. There isnt or rather I havent seen any evidence of pegging so far

Semantics.
That's like SpaceX saying its Starship test rocket did not explode. Rather it experienced rapid unscheduled disassembly.
The CBN is not pegging the rate. It is engaging in market signaling.

We all know what we are doing.

-Lord

Bold of them to assume the CBN will have a choice.

-Lord

Itsrm:


Possibly. When it gets there, we will know. For now, it's propaganda

The propaganda was birthed here.
https://nairametrics.com/2024/04/15/naira-opens-shop-below-n1000-against-dollar-at-some-segments-of-black-market/
Zero substance.

-Lord

Itsrm:


Dollar is less than 1000 in which black market?

It's not yet there.
But if recent history is any indication, this pre-emptive propaganda means the CBN is about to peg the rate at 900/950.

-Lord

TemporaryHansel:


You people still haven't answered my question oh. Will the war make the dollar go up?

CC @Lord.adam

The immediate effect of a shooting war is high oil price.
This is a positive for the Naira.

But if the War wears on, pressure on the markets, investors piling into safe haven assets, and economic uncertainty would make the naira depreciate.
At this point, we're talking about a major conflict between Iran and Israel; as well as interventions from their respective allies. At the moment, this is very unlikely.

In the near term, the value of the naira will be primarily decided by the CBN.
They haven't had this much control since 2018.
I think this flare up will be contained, so the CBN should retain its ability to peg rates.
But there is a lunatic in Tel Aviv who may have other ideas.

-Lord

OkpaNsukkaisBae:
Ballzproblem
Happy Sunday.




Iran just attacked God's people. When will angel Michael and angel gaybriel retaliate on behalf of Israel

The US has already said it will not support any Israeli attack and must be notified if they choose to discard wise counsel.

As I said earlier, no one will fight a world war for Netanyahu.

-Lord

Itsrm:


Anybody buying any dip now is how people lose all the gains they've made.

There's time to buy dips and time to just stay out.

Most people don't have endless liquidity. The market can stay irrational longer than anyone can stay solvent.

I have confidence that the parties will not let the situation deteriorate to horrendous levels.

So the dip, for as long as it lasts, presents a good opportunity to ladder in (DCA) at support levels.

Staying out is understandable, but the geopolitics does not lend to this becoming a catastrophe of historic proportions.

Seriously, no one is going to risk a world war because of Netanyahu!

-Lord

Ballzproblem2:
the retaliation na chise, Israel have already started intercepting the drones.


if Iran mind touch ground make them use ballistic missiles .

No more they can't launch from Iran.
You don shift post.

Anyway, cooler heads will prevail.

-Lord