raumdeuter:


Does AJaero have that power?

Yes.

Worst case they will break NLC into factions.

That has been their end game.
Whatever they do next, the bottom line is that there was a tat for the initial tit.

People in some states are already saying there is no strike in their location.

In our current charged, sectarian polity, this was inevitable regardless of the impetus for the strike.

If you want to fight a personal vendetta and you get your nose bruised in addition to already flouting a court case

He has no case at the end he fuccked around in politicss and got found

The beaten cannot be undone, The only thing Ajaero will do is to waste the fish wey my guy blueray don plan to chop for 2 weeks

In this country, Buratai killed more than a 1000 Shiites when a procession blocked his convoy.
Ajaero can waste BRD's fish.

-Lord

raumdeuter:


Was he on official duty when he was slapped? Abi which part of NLC involves joining political campaigns?
You went on a personal trip, you got assaulted by thugs (Not govt) but you want people in Zamfara and Ekiti to suffer for it

If a military general goes to a beer parlour or goes to fight over his personal land in Ibeju and was slapped, will he shut down the entire country too?

You go explain tire.
If the military general had the means, he too would shut down the entire country.
This country, in fact, the entire planet currently operates on the eternally apt FAFO principle.
Hamas is getting bodied right now.
Hope, backed by the FG, f*cked around. It's time to find out.

How can you rough up the NLC President, the defacto leader of Nigeria's 60m workers, and then try to excuse it away because of the circumstances? We play too much in this country.

Ajaero is not the equivalent of a military general. He is equivalent to the Chief of Defense Staff.
If thugs on the orders of a governor beat up the Chief of Defense Staff, the Governor will be confined to his residence for starters.
Then all the thugs will be sent to their makers.
After which everyone who was in the chain of command that relayed the order from the Governor to the thugs will receive disproportional punishment. Even the owner of the land where the beating occurred will go on exile.

Since the NLC does not have the means to directly exact retribution on the perpetrators, they would (and must) use the weapon at their disposal.
NLC should have shut down the country for 2 good weeks immediately after that incident.
Beating up Ajaero was a dare. This is the consequence.

Whenever you're in a position of power, you must establish and reinforce deterrence.
Doubly so in a lawless country like Nigeria.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:


Obi and Atiku are two sides of the same coin.

BAT built apc from Lagos. And slowly built it into a regional party. He built alliances and friendships. You do not become a political force overnight.

Peter obi rather than do the same with APGA jumped ship to pdp and burnt his bridges. He joined The party that denied him his mandate in the first place. Then jumped ship again when it was clear he was not the nominee.

As for Atiku he has been jumping ship for the past 20 years. If he somehow loses pdp ticket he will jump ship again. He dealt pdp a mortal blow in 2015. His actions directly led to the G5 and the fault lines within pdp.

Spot on.

In any case, it does appear LP is Obi's final stop.
Perhaps his biggest contribution to our democracy will be fashioning an enduring third force.
It may not make him the President, but it may be the perfect platform for a more politically deft candidate in the future.

-Lord

Itsrm:


And it does not seem like he learnt any lesson. He wants to go again in 2027 as a third force.

Dude wants to out-Atiku Atiku!
Heck, even Atiku had the good sense to not go it alone in 2015 although he was more qualified than the party nominee.

I believe Obi's political fatuity is a major black mark on his capabilities.
Tinubu stooped low to conquer. Not Obi though. I'm eager to see how he'll pull the impossible.

-Lord

airsaylongcome:


Lol! I remember one person saying it will take Dollar 7 years to get back to ₦1200+. Mocking the ₦8m guy. It's not even up to 7 days since their fake "NGN recovery" the thing is in its way back to ₦1300

That guy is a clown.

That said, Cardoso should have intervened this week as well.
Maybe he will. The week has not ended.

If you're going to clear backlogs, do so consistently.
Don't make a big show about starting a process, promise to continue that process this week.
Then crickets.

Now, it appears as though they scrounged up $1B for temporary respite.
The only positive is that our pending bill is a smidgen smaller and we got a two-week breather.
The drawback is the unequivocal reinforcement of the CBN's abject lack of credibility.

-Lord

Segedinho:
Doctor requested the sum of #450k to perform C.S on my wife as he assumes she cant push,as a result of the CS he did on her 2years ago...

Had no choice but my wife objected and requested a change of hospital ASAP...

Long story short. we welcome our newly crowned KING weighing 4.0kg ...and ofcourse V-delivery but with the help of a forcep....


😍🥰🥰🥰🥰🥰.


I don hang booth for pregnancy matter.......🤨🤨

Congrats man.

-Lord

Itsrm:


If I get what you're saying, to trade on spot, you have to pay a premium on naira like we used to do in the final days of Emefiele

Yes.

-Lord

Itsrm:
Can anyone explain why people buy from the second picture (P2P) when the first is cheaper.

Because you can't get Fiat NGN on Binance at a 1:1 ratio whenever there's a delta between the spot and P2P rates.
Tap the NGN tab in the P2P hub to see the current rates to deposit/withdraw NGN Fiat.

-Lord

GloriousGbola:


Cchairman, you are talking from the perspective of a person who actually has a use/plan for dollars . the person who started this conversation is clearly thinking along the speculative lines. and these are part of the actions that have driven up price of dollar in the first place. people buying for speculation, not because they actually need FX at the moment.

and to reiterate - a person cannot be posting the price of dollar everyday, adding smiley, saying tinubu is fking up the economy and then when the same tinubus policys lead to a rise in the naira the same person says oh ok - i am going to buy dollars to keep even though i know this will lead to the situation i was loudly and vehemently criticizing tinubu for an increase in the price of dollars

Why not?

Long term, the naira will always depreciate. It has been depreciating since inception.
So why should a Nigerian, regardless of political affiliation, avoid converting their savings when cheap FX is available?

You make hay when the sun shines.
And right now it's a hot summer afternoon for the naira.

Your argument is illogical and you're conflating issues.
The rapid decline of the naira's value is primarily down to the economic policies of the dual APC administrations.
It is perfectly fine to criticize the rate of decline.

In fact, this is the entire reason for the criticism.
So they can drag down the rate and anyone can buy the $ for whatever reason.
If you want to hedge. Do that. If you want to buy for japa. Do that. If you want to buy to preserve your wealth through the inevitable devaluation. Do that.
And yes, if the rate rapidly crashes from 800 back to 1600, Tinubu and his appointees will be raked over the coals. Part of his mandate is to ensure currency stability. When he fails at that, criticism is justified.
It should not matter what Nigerians want to use the dollars for. We earned the naira fair and square.
If Tinubu and co are doing their jobs correctly, even if I want to buy $10m, I should be able to do so without any material effect on the rate.

I don't know why fellas in your camp are fond of gaslighting Nigerians.
We can't criticize. We can't buy dollars.
If it were up to you, only those with Ronu cards will be able to buy the dollars now that it is cheap.
Then when the rate goes back up, you'll start telling the rest of us to endure the hardship.

-Lord

Emaprince:
Seems the dip is only on paper.

On the streets of parallel market, you will sell to aboki at upto 1150. So how much will aboki sell his?

I don't understand Nigeria.

Aboki will adjust. Give that market segment time.
Since the current wave of naira appreciation started, aboki rates have lagged behind p2p.
This will not always be the case. But for now, that's how things are shaking out.

-Lord

lionshare:

Here is a link to oil receipts in September 2023

https://businessday.ng/energy/oilandgas/article/nigerias-crude-oil-revenue-soars-by-%E2%82%A6274bn-in-september-on-improved-output/?amp=1

I asked you to tell me the exact amount NNPCL remitted to the Federation Account.
You're giving me a shitty, inaccurate estimate.

We don't sell our crude at the exact average brent crude price.
That figure you shared does not account for PSC deductions.
It also does not account for oil swap liabilities or other obligations of the NNPCL.

You just take figures at face value and go on the offensive without understanding what it is you're talking about.

NNPCL resumed remittances to the Federation Account in June of this year after 18 months of zero remittance.
https://www.thecable.ng/nnpc-payment-of-n123bn-to-faac-shows-were-moving-in-right-direction

That's what I'm asking for.
Tell me what they remitted for September 2023.

I asked for a source of your acclaimed leak you provided an article which reference a public statement by the president. Perhaps you need to read through the article; how on earth is a statement credited to the president still a leak?

Do you have trouble understanding the English language?
Read that writ again and identify who said the loan funds will be disbursed this week.

-Lord

Itsrm:


I saw them on frontpage jubilating and asking people to sell their holdings

I'm even praying it crashes further. My average price is currently 1068. If it crashes below 900, I can load more and bring my average below 1000 which will give me a better margin of safety.

At some point, you start looking forward to the interventions.
As they present the perfect opportunity to convert saved naira.

In the medium to long term, the rate goes in only one direction.
As such, these interventions are the informal reverse contract forwards for anyone who earns naira from a job or business.
Dollar earners can sell high and buy low.
Because you know the Nigerian addiction to cheap FX guarantees CBN/FG action whenever there's a massive drop.

As for the scarce $ used to prop up the naira.
If they don't spend it on this, they'll use it to service loans that have been or will be squandered.
Besides, Nigerians cheer using borrowed $ to temporarily inflate the value of their battered currency backed by vibes, corruption, and Inshallah.
So it is my solemn civic duty to buy at 850 and sell at 1500. At which point, I'll join the chorus to get them to intervene again to bring it back down to 1000.
Let us finish the country kpata kpata. If you don't have a second passport...

-Lord

lionshare:


You have no business discussing this topic if you do not know how much oil we are producing. There is nothing fuzzy about it our production has been marginally increasing for the past few months. Again you are pushing your opinion with no fact.

I ignored you the first time.
Please avoid me.

If I ask you to tell me how much NNPCL sent to the Federation Account last month as crude oil net income, you'll start stammering.

That's how you asked the stupid question about the leak that put inflow of the borrowed funds to start this week. There it is in black and white. https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2023/10/27/fg-moves-to-securitise-nlng-dividends-for-7bn-cash

If you're ignorant, try to seek out information independently. Not become a public irritant.
I'm not responsible for your education. You're a grown man.

Now if you'll excuse me...

-Lord

nedu666:


Oga abeg does it mean Nigeria is not making shishi from crude oil even at above $80 a barrel

Well, the reserves stopped shrinking mid October.
That'll obviously reverse after the latest intervention.

Our inflow from crude sales is fuzzy.
How much we're producing.
The discounts.
What percentage is earmarked for pending obligations (like the crude oil swap agreement).
All of those are hard to make out if you're not an insider.

-Lord

grandstar:
My worry is whether there'll be forex to service new obligations.

What steps are the CBN and the finance ministry taking that new inflows of dollars come so as to fill up the foreign reserves to at least 3 months cover?

My worry is that the present loose monetary policy by the CBN will create a situation where demand for FX will always be greater supply.

It was either this or 1500 by middle of November.
Nigerians overwhelmingly demand cheap forex.
You could say their hands were forced.

About securing new dollar inflows, there's not much else that can be done.
Cutting the outflow by the refineries coming online would have been perfect.
Clearing this backlog should have a positive effect on FDI. But that wouldn't be immediate and it's too early to tell if that'd occur or to what degree.

-Lord

SoNature:


Every competent government works hard to grow its foreign reserves, not spend from it. If former presidents who came before Tinubu started spending that money, what would have Tinubu met?

Oops! I guess he didn't promise Nigerians anything; he's only enjoying his turn and has hired tons of online scallywags to defend his rascality.

They leaked to the press that they'd receive funds this week from foreign lenders and start clearing the backlog.
They made this inaccurate disclosure because they had to stem the drop in the parallel market.

If this week had ended without any action on the backlog, it'd have led to a surge next week.
That's why they're tapping into the reserves.
Preliminary reports state they took out $1B.

I guess they'll stagger it every two weeks or thereabout until they receive the funds which they'll then use to plug the leaking reserve.
Meanwhile the downward pressure on rates will hold.
Ensuring a near-term band of 900-1100.

All of this is contingent on those funds coming in before the end of the year.
If they don't, we'd have a negative net reserve and rates will crash with a vengeance.
It'd have been great if the Dangote Refinery had commenced gasoline refining.
But while it may yet kick off before the end of the year. It'll take a while to ramp up.
Most of our crude is earmarked for export to secure prized $.

The CBN is trying to restore belief and confidence in their capacity to meet institutional obligations.
To that end, this is helpful.

-Lord

SoNature:
I hope they aren't borrowing it or emptying Nigeria's foreign reserves to clear the backlog. Nigeria is struggling with FX, but the president plans to splash millions of dollars buying a yacht.

This is from the reserves.

-Lord

Gerrard59:


Make I quote this post.

Honestly, I don't see how we can compete with dem Indonesians, Vietnam and India. If East Africa solves their power problem, many investors would be restrained from investing in Nigeria, especially in production. Thing be say na production dey solve unemployment problem.

We are not yet trying to compete.
Stuck at trying to fix our fiscal imbalance.

Otherwise the power issue for enterprises is not a quandary.
We have 14GW generating capacity. We're only wheeling out circa 5GW.
Create economic zones or clusters that leverage these underutilized assets.
Foreign banks, SWFs, and developmental institutions will not mind funding a portion.

But how would our industrialists repay when the FX rate doubled in under six months and we're flirting with 30% inflation.
You can't even get a bridge loan to import without getting a steep haircut.

East Africa working out their kinks shouldn't necessarily impact us.
Our ideal market is the Americas and Western Europe.
The East Africans should be inserting themselves into the Asian superchain and seek to profit from the Arabs trying to diversify their monoeconomies.

-Lord

Zabiboy:
My short story so far

If i can do it, anybody can

Congrats on the move man!

-Lord

WhoDeyHause:

Dollar at 1600 will just cripple most SMEs and startups struggling to breathe at the moment finally. Many are still speculating it would go up once the $7B arrives, but with this new $7B loan are you sure our national debt hasn't gone over $100B dollars already coupled with the various interests added to it that we're going to pay back?

The exact details of the CBN's liabilities are murky.
In JP Morgan's report, total liabilities exceeded $14B.
But that was in reference to EOY 22 numbers.

The true state of our finances is not readily available.
So most analysts go off guesstimates.

The number that's floating around is $10B. Which might be a deliberate understatement. But let's work with that.
The plan is roll over some of it into 24 to 36 months instruments thus giving us more time to come up with the funds.
While they use the $7B to clear the most urgent book liabilities and fund several weeks of direct sales in the NAFEM window.

The open-ended question is how long the stability lasts?
I don't think the administration cares anymore.
If they can secure the $7B and hopefully the $3B AFRIEXIM loan as well.
We'd almost certainly get at least a good quarter of stability out of the intervention which right now sounds like a huge win to them.

The national debt. Interest payments. Revenue shortfall. All of those are problems they'd pawn off to the next administration.
Nothing screams desperation like securitizing $2B p.a. revenue for a $7B loan from a consortium led by a commercial bank in the current high interest rate environment.
I'll like to see the terms they get. Standard Chartered will bend them over a barrel.

But they wouldn't mind. All the top honchos at NLNG, NNPCL, Minister of Finance, and CBN are salivating at what they'd gain from the deal.
The funds will be used up. Then they'd start cooking another billion-dollar deal by this time next year.
In fact, it is in their best interest that this inflow does not solve the FX crisis permanently.

Currently, this country is a hood rat n*ggas are running a train on.
Stop worrying about the aftereffects.
If the jamboree will not favor you and your family, japa!

-Lord

WhoDeyHause:

It's gradually reflecting like you said bro.
https://www.nairaland.com/7891505/naira-gains-against-dollar-trades

Hopefully it enters 1000 soon before it goes back. Men now we are praying for dollar to exchange at 1000. Something that was around 650 some months ago before. There was a country.

Once there's confirmation that the FG has started receiving the $7B, it'll touch 900 within a few hours.
Apparently, the current drop is due to the accelerated timeline.
The ThisDay article insider said Standard Chartered and co will start releasing funds next week.

I doubt that. It takes a while for the kinks in these type of unconventional deals to be ironed out.
Earlier in August, the NNPC hurriedly revealed they'd closed a $3B loan with AFRIEXIM. Rates fell overnight.
Later we learned that AFRIEXIM had not found co-partners to back the loan. They are yet to find takers as of today.
And that's why rates shot back up from 810 to 1310.

So if the $7B doesn't come soon, 1600 is a lock.

-Lord

How a person reacts to this crime is a good barometer of their sanity.

A teenager was dismembered.
Those words should never be in the same sentence.

Rail against internet fraud as much as you want, but don't preface with the m0ronic take of having no pity for the lass.

-Lord

CodeTemplar:
Waoh!
Using rumour of dollar inflow to scare sellers and BCDs.

That's the only trick left in their playbook.
AFRIEXIM is still looking for backers to fund the NNPC $3B oil repayment loan since August.

Now they're planning to use NLNG's annual dividends of $2B/yr to securitize a $7B loan.
They've not inked the deal yet, but are already pushing rhetoric.

When they're done expending the $10B.
Where will they get the money for future interventions?
After pledging our future earnings.
In fact, how will they be able to fund the budget?

Borrow to fund budget.
Borrow to intervene in the FX market.
Borrow to subsidize gasoline and electricity.

Anyway, they should bring the cheap dollars.

-Lord

Incognito9:
Wetin dey occur 😁

We're overdue for a retrace.

Be that as it may, the drop started after the Supreme Court's verdict.
Also, abokifx introduced a subscription package and stopped displaying updated rates to the wider public.

A longshot reason is that the $10B inflow expected by the government has started to trickle in.
Nothing has emerged in the grapevine, but we should hear more before the close of business day or over the weekend if there's a policy impetus for the drop.

-Lord

akwesenana:
This morning, I saw 1,200. Now this.

Abokifx is quoting 1310.

-Lord

InvertedHammer:

/

Na!

If you earned N240k in May, the current value of your salary is N90k. It is that bad.

/

It is the primary reason why Big Business hastily raised wages then.
Delay is dangerous.

-Lord

Gerrard59:


I haven't looked at the numbers, but would solar installation by Daystar Power do the magic? Power is a major issue, but how are the Indians and Chinese still in business? That stuff bewilders me.

Site your enterprise in a good location.
And outline the budget for steady power.
If you can't make provision for the surcharge, do not open shop.

You may have to meet your local DISCO halfway.
Or team up with non-competitors in your locale.
Some businesses cleverly set up shop close to gas infrastructure. Pipeline, plant... Then sign a multi-year contract.

Opening a factory in Ota beats doing the same in some random location elsewhere.
It'll be more expensive, but it'd be less risky.
And if you're going to rely on a Perkins and AGO; then be damn sure your business is cash flow heavy and has a high CRR.
So you can conveniently paper over the swift increases that can happen.

DayStar Power is excellent.
The fact that they're owned by Shell eliminates concerns about longevity.
Else the FX crises would have been rough on their business model.

To start a business in Nigeria.
You plan. Then you plan again.
Establish a buffer.
Then be prepared to move mountains when unforeseen challenges arise.

-Lord

raumdeuter:

Except its for the flex of being a landlord and able to collect rents in kind from female tenants its not worth it

I remember telling Olowu this sometime this year. Its even worse if you are planning to collect the rent and send abroad

5M Naira rent which was over $10k before is now like $4k

It kinda works if you're able to buy or build in a highbrow area.
Huge capital outlay but rents creep up in choice locales.
Anything middle class or lower. Abort mission.
Or you eat the loss and hope to sell for multiples if long term projections of property value in the neighborhood are rosy.

The perennial FX crisis has been a major incinerator of wealth.
Meanwhile diasporan Indians are living the dream.

-Lord

izzou:


E never late to buy

The optics are not looking good. This thing go reach 1500.

Meanwhile, air ticket will be at least 100k for a one way soon. My guy working at the airport told me.

Wahala for Sugar daddies and side chicks. Dem go use 3 days take organise quickie.

What Tinubu cannot destroy, does not exist.

Soon?!

Egbon, go check airfare now as we dey talk.

-Lord

BlueRayDick:


Na all this thing happen and some people dey shine teeth dey talk “ I stand with Palestine “ .

Smh 😔

"I stand with Palestine" does not mean an implicit endorsement of everything Palestinian extremists do.

There is a spectrum of people on the "I stand with Palestine" camp as there are on the "I stand with Israel" side of the fence.

I acknowledge Israel's right to exist. As a people, they've gone through more than enough tribulations.
After all, the US, Canada, Australia were snatched from the natives. And it's not like the Caucasians ever had historical claims to these lands.
I'd have preferred if the Jews were given a parcel of land in the New World. Rather than placed smack dab in the midst of folks who hate their guts and further giving the same folks legitimate grievances. It was completely avoidable.

That said, we've had the Arab-Israeli wars. The Arabs lost and they've climbed down their high horses.
Egypt was the ringleader for the first three wars. It refused to recognize the State of Israel. It does now. Israel had to return the Sinai which they won squarely to secure the recognition.

This is the template that everyone is asking to be replicated.
No one is talking about the 1947 UN Partition Plan anymore. Israel can keep the land it won in the first Arab-Israeli War.
But there is no way Israel will be allowed to completely evict a people who had lived on a land for 2000 years. NO WAY.
Nor will it be allowed to continue its occupation and neo-apartheid policy.
There has to be a compromise. The compromise is a State of Palestine within its 1967 borders.
Hamas and many right-wing extremists in Israel do not want this compromise.
Hamas does not want Israel to exist. The Israeli extremists do not want a State of Palestine to exist. Neither is acceptable.

October 7th is a reminder that the sooner this solution is brokered, the sooner we can begin to move past this revolving door of carnage.
Hamas is like any of the dozens of militant groups sprawled out around the region. In Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen.
They're opportunists. And Israel's continued occupation is the primary source of their legitimacy.
End it and I can assure you that within one month, President Abbas of Palestine will launch an offensive against Hamas.
And he'd ask for help from US, Israel, and Western allies. And many Arab nations will send money for the task. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
In fact, like every microstate in the region, he will ask for an American military base with thousands of American troops.

So when folks say "I stand with Palestine", many are advocating for a better way to solve the crisis.
A solution that starts with recognition of the State of Palestine.
A solution that ends the continued persecution of the Palestinians.
A solution that guarantees that October 7 never happens again.

I'll implore you to stop gaslighting people who chant "I stand with Palestine".

-Lord

ednut1:
There is no where in the world where Nigerian women are in demand or being praised. Why is that 🤣

Your Vawulency!

Please reduce the volume of your mic.

-Lord