₦airaland Forum

jidamsel43:
No political party will field an Igbo candidate in 2023 because the region does not have voting strength. Its a blatant true that an average Igbo is a PDP member.
Until there is positive political orientation in the region, the political tide will continue to swing against them

jidamsel43:
when they stop voting blindly to PDP

Stingman:
In 1999, Nigeria accepted Falae and Obasanjo all from SW as the sole candidates...in the two major parties...

In 2019, Nigeria accepted Buhari and Atiku all from the north, as the sole candidates...in the two major parties...

If in 2023, Nigeria fails to accept two candidates from SE, then it means Nigeria don't want the Igbos, and it will be just clear to the world...

If Nigeria accepted the pattern in 1999 and 2019 for peace to reign why not do the same in 2023, as SE a major tripod in the structure of Nigeria for independence, has not had a president for about 50 years...

Stingman:
What do you mean by tribal politics, did they not vote for candidates from the north, SW and SS refusing to vote their own tribal men..even Ojukwu of APGA? You people have nothing more to say due to your phobia...and this is really shameful!

jpphilips:
[s]
IS BUHARI TRULY RESPONSIBLE FOR OUR ECONOMIC WOES?

A lot have been said about Buhari, how he brought hardship on Nigerians, how he is responsible for all the suffering in Nigeria, is that theory backed with facts and global economic realities or the shenanigans of few individuals basking in the Euphoria of ignorance?
Since I must make a choice between our present loud political gladiators, I armed myself with Economics textbooks and news archive, here is what i discovered.

Nigeria an oil producing and oil dependent economy suffered a global economic hit called crude oil price shock
it is the sudden drop in price of crude oil in the commodity trading market, it has occurred at different times in History nearly every decade. Countries that are hardest hit by crude shock are basically countries that not only produce crude oil in significant amount but solely depend on it as their foreign exchange earner. While oil shocks have asymmetric effects in oil-exporting developing countries; lower oil prices lead to major revenue cuts and ensuing stagnation in the economy, but higher oil prices and accompanying higher revenues do not translate into sustained economic growth.

What are the effects of crude shock in oil producing developing economies?

Forex scarcity: Most developing economies whether oil producing or not, depend on importation to survive, where foreign currency becomes scarce, industries, individuals that have significant need for forex will likely close shops giving birth to the second problem unemployment then finally the master Recession.

Unemployment: When industries no longer have forex to buy spare parts, can no longer afford raw materials, production slows, sales slows, profit eroded, workers sacked, since the volume of activities in the economy is directly proportional to the GDP, the GDP contracts and birth another economic monster Recession.

Recession is a chain reaction of unpalatable economic events that shows the economy is not experiencing growth but contracting, lets look at the effects of recession, high energy cost (energy in most developing economies are subsidized one way or another) crude shock and eventually recession erodes government revenues till a point where it could no longer afford subsidies and other things it used to afford.
In Nigeria where our Electricity Generation companies are subsidized, petroleum products are subsidized,you will understand that such partial or complete subsidy removal will quickly skyrocket the cost of living generally, transportation, cost of food etc are equally affected that leads to another monster called Inflation.

Inflation: is defined as a phenomenon where huge bills are in search of few goods, how is that possible? when the industries that produce goods closed down, imports could not be sustained due to Forex shortages where will the goods come from? the absence of those goods while the bills remain triggers inflation, causes hunger and eventually poverty and devaluation of local currency.

Devaluation is when global reserve currencies trade higher than your currency, of course you recall that an economy in crude shock first suffers Forex shortages, that robs the central bank (in the case of Nigeria) the ability to fix the currency at a reasonable exchange rate.
The local currency is allowed to float along a band the cbn thinks may not be too hurtful on the economy.
Forex ban is placed on certain commodities, debit cards like Visa, Mastercard et al are all placed on monthly transaction limits as a reflection of the reality of forex shortages.

Between 2015-2018, all these happened in the Nigerian economy, then I asked "are we the only oil dependent economies in the world? why us alone?
The answer took me to several countries in the world and I realized that other oil producing countries dont depend on oil alone, countries like Russia though the largest producer of crude oil in the world, has a robust defense industry that contribute significantly to its GDP, Russia equally enjoys large market shares in Gas distribution in Eurasia, by the time crude oil shock hit, Russia had over $400b in reserves,
It became clear that the only economic move that could hold off crude oil shock and other global economic shocks is a robust foreign exchange reserves (Savings).

Permit me to take you down our economic history, in 2008 during the global melt down, the then CBN governor prof. Chukwuma Charles soludo bragged that the Nigerian economy is immune to global shocks? That would have sounded ridiculous but it is true, what did he do? they launched an economic strategy called National Economic Empowerment And Development Strategy NEEDS.
This strategy recommended that once crude oil is sold, the balance above the budget benchmark is kept in an account called the ECA, by the time that government left and another took over in 2007, both the ECA & Foreign reserve account held over $68b in reserves, in a $200b economy at the time, that reserve was significant enough to whither any storm that came the way of our economy, Much later into the crisis, Nigeria later relaxed its exchange rate to 155 to a dollar. now we know that Nigeria had in the past stood resilience in the face of global shocks with a culture of Savings.

Global economic meltdown is worse than crude shock because in a meltdown, major economies are affected, capital flight becomes common in developing economies, crude oil customers reduce demand thereby pushing prices lower, the saddest part is that no country has money to borrow anyone during global meltdown, yet Nigeria Survived it with Soludo's brilliant strategy. A strategy that was blatantly refused by the previous administration when suggested by Iweala, recall that Iweala worked with Soludo in that NEEDS team.


Fast forward to 2015, Three out of the top four producers of crude oil in Africa by their production, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria and Egypt were all in recession even though Egypt does not significantly depend on oil but her economy was shattered. Algeria escaped recession because by 2014, just like Nigeria in 2008, Algeria had a foreign reserve balance of $90b in a $156.1b economy.You can see that the Robust reserve of Algeria was their savior in this modern crude oil shock era. The previous administration in Nigeria boasted of leaving behind a paltry $19b for a $500b economy at the time, that amount is not even enough to pay for imports let alone absorb global shocks, so Nigeria can be rightly described in late 2014 as an oil dependent economy with no savings. How important is this savings?

Lets take our research to the Second largest producer of crude oil Angola, just like Nigeria with no significant savings, Angola's challenges needs no introduction, let facts speak for itself

Angola suffered severe Forex & currency challenges just like Nigeria. According to Bloomberg
They not only devalued their currency, they equally allowed it to float like Nigeria's
Angola devalued its currency as the OPEC member sought to revive an economy still reeling from the oil-price crash four years ago.



Borrowing to fund Budget deficits, just like Nigeria, Angola has borrowed to the point of requesting a bail out from the IMF
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/08/angola-says-to-request-4-5-bn-imf-loan-as-crisis-lingers/

Unemployment Rate in Angola increased to 20 percent in 2017 from 19.90 percent in 2016.
https://tradingeconomics.com/angola/unemployment-rate


Inflation in Angola was a whooping 23.67 percent in December 2017, data on the national statistics agency's website showed on Wednesday.
Price growth on a month-on-month basis rose to 1.47 percent in January from 1.2 percent previously.

Poverty in Angola
According to Angola's 2001 MPI, more than 77% of the population was multidimensionally poor. ... The latest available World Bank figure for income poverty in Angola, from 2008, shows that 36.6% of the population is income poor. Angola's population is currently estimated at 29.7 million.

I can go on and on the list is endless, as a matter of undeniable fact, Angola just like Nigeria are the largest producers in Africa, they practically did not save enough and they were hit hard by crude price shock. to balance the analysis, it will be unfair to discuss those that didn't save without giving kudos to those that saved, like i said previously, Algeria saved a whooping $90b when the going was good, as such its economy was immune to crude shock.

Russia like we said though had currency challenges during the period under review ostensibly because of western sanctions, Russia had over $400b in reserves by ending of 2014.

Saudi Arabia was immune to crude shock not without little currency & subsidy issues ostensibly because of its huge financing of the war in Yemen, they were sitting on a comfortable $732b by the end of 2014.

My country men, you can see that this suffering was brought upon us by mismanagement by the same people that are warming up to continue from where fate has left us, if buhari had $100b in our foreign reserve in 2015, we wont be hungry today, we wont lose our jobs, we wont lose our manufacturing industries, this is the truth that shall set us free!

Some even blamed it on Avengers attack of 2016

Niger delta avengers was a non issue, if you noticed, I expunged them from my initial analysis, here is why;
We were in crude shock from late 2014, Avengers struck in 2016, since 2014, your GDP wasn't showing any growth but retrogression or doldrums meaning you were heading towards recession anyways as a result of crude shock.

If Avengers did not strike, OPEC would have asked us to cut production to boost prices,
read:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-28/opec-said-to-agree-on-first-oil-output-cut-in-eight-years

So Avengers or any form of production cut at the time was a non issue. OPEC gave us production cut waiver because Nigeria has already declared force-majore in most of its crude oil export channels.

Nigerian people, what is your present government doing to stem this tide that has shocked the fabrics of our nation to the Marrow?


The vice president being the economic manager of the country Launched the ERGP, with it Nigeria even in recession was able to save $47b in our foreign reserve, at this pace, I have no doubt that this money will hit $100b in the next 4yrs, that is a guarantee that our economy will become immune to global shocks once again, not just crude shocks alone. (Algerian model)
The moment that money crossed $40b, forex shortages disappeared, importers stopped complaining, manufacturers stopped complaining of dollar scarcity, debit cards relaxed their limits etc, that was a killer stroke in our economic recovery strategy, inflation immediately responded to the potency of the ERGP from 18.8% in 2017 to 11.23% in 2018.

Nigeria is building a Gas liquefying plant called the NLNG train 7 project, that will in a way increase revenue from Gas against depending on oil alone, there are other ongoing Gas projects like the AKK projects and other Gas for power projects, rightly put, the economy is being diversified towards gas. (Russian model)
https://www.vanguardngr.com/2018/07/nnpc-signs-agreement-for-seven-critical-gas-projects/

In conclusion, I can state for a fact that the economic challenges of this country has nothing to do with Buhari under the circumstances he met on ground, we have a chance to fix culpability of blames where it rightly belongs on crude shock, or replace this government whose framework seems promising with another leadership of questionable integrity.

Buhari is like a mechanic that was given a car to fix, only for the car owner to accuse him of being the problem of the car when he is yet to fix anything.

We shall never go back to past governments whose inaction landed us in this mess in the first place.
leadership in the past that we tasked to privatize our establishments, all failed save for the one that ended up in his pocket, yet he claimed to create Jobs? How many jobs were lost in that privatization scam where 56 government entities perished?
Where is our NITEL, ALSCON, Nicon Insurance to mention a few? Leadership that claims to create jobs but his company PRODECO folded up? Leadership that claim to create jobs yet it was Buhari that sacked foreigners littered everywhere in his company, does an ordinary logistics company need that much foreigners?

Leadership that is a case study for corruption and money laundering by the US Senate committee on Homeland security, Leadership that preaches restructuring but enjoys monopoly in Niger delta sea ports? Atiku is a walking scam, may we not walk into the scam called Atiku because of lie peddled and perfected by the same holocausts that landed us in bondage, every scam comes with a loud noise, say No to Atiku, we cant move from Abacha loot to Atiku loot.

It will be very dangerous and retrogressive to have a leader that is in bad terms with the international community, remember that the united states is the Fulcrum of our war against insurgency, one will argue that if America doesn't sell arms to us we go to Russia, the world works differently now under Donald trump, ask yourself, why did Jonathan not go to those people when America sanctioned him under the Leahy's ban? Yet he sat idly and watched Boko haram slaughter tens of thousands eventually took LGA's? American ban is as good as a global ban, recall how South Africa seized funds Jonathan wanted to use for arms purchase, please dont ask me what is South Africa's business with a US ban, that is how the world works.

In 2017, the US congress passed a law called Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, CAATSA to promote the America first agenda while sanctioning countries that do business with American's enemies. If Atiku (God forbid) becomes the president as much as thinks about going to Russia for help, Nigeria will end up in CAATSA web, and that is when the true Hunger will manifest.
Can you live under a US sanction like North Korea and Iran? can you live with a Boko haram that is out of control? A boko haram that once
bombed Abuja for fun? what about other support we get from the US like the USAID? free immunization? Polio prevention? HIV and AIDS vaccines? Machinery and oil and gas technologies etc? are you willing to throw away all these because of a criminal whose greed led him to commit atrocities in the United states or hate for Buhari that is built on lies?
When faced with these realities, Atiku will never achieve anything, rather he will steal what we have left and disappear like he did in the US.
[/s]
May God help us!!

ToZaraWithaZ:
Retardded animal. Cretinism personified. No one could be more unfortunate than your disgusting inebriate of a father who sacrificed his glory in drawing out the putrid aura in your mother in form of you, bringing disaster into his life. Neither could anyone be as unlucky as your poor mother who gave birth to a bastard that pecks the misfortunes in others' lives and stores them in his stomach as his fate.

Wasted birth of ignominious heritage!

ToZaraWithaZ:
This ridiculous threat is all you have to say to that post? You are a fool, my friend.

bloodofthelamb:
IT IS NOT MY TEACHING, BUT THE LORD'S TEACHING...WE ARE NOT MINISTERS OF CONDEMNATION, BUT OF GRACE AND LOVE...SHALOM!

bloodofthelamb:
OP, THE GRACE OF GOD IS FOR ALL...CHRIST WAS AND IS THE FRIEND OF SINNERS.
YOU CAN WIN HER OVER TO THE LORD'S SIDE WITH LOVE.

enilove:
Op, if they were married b4 one of them bcame christian , what should they do.

If the Bible says they can remain married , provided the unbeliever does not object to her conversion, then a good christian can be married to a muslim .

hopefulLandlord:
what a stupid statement, its like saying "You're now a Christian? you will regret it.

does that make sense to you?

kettykin:
This is the Number one hate speech and the problem of Nigeria, if Indeed Democracy is a game of Number then how come Taxation is not a game of Number.

The same people who claim they have the voting Numbers do not contribute anything meaningful to the economy.

if by 2023 there is no power shift to the East Nnamdi Kanu will be a child's play

Only in this kind of country do we have people voicing out hate policies and they go scot but when someone Like Nnamdi kanu replies them we start hearing terrorism accusation from foools .

spongeisback:
Ah Christianity the religion of the man that came through "virgin" birth, killed himself for the sins of the world, rose on the third day to sit by his own side and his Holy Spirit is making people rabada raba?! Since I dumped religion am free! "Christians" don't even wed among themselves Assemblies of God don't wed Catholics, greater don't wed Anglicans except you accept to be rebaptised and so on and so forth. Why should other religions be bothered about you when you don't have unity amongst yourselves? Even among the so called Pentecostals still division is eminent the only thing they can agree on is extorting their sheep. I beggy!

Tolexander:
Kalu has suddenly become a very free man, after crossing to APC and no one seems to be passionately talking about his case again.

blakid:
A round of applause for your inferiority....

hopefulLandlord:
All religion does is give us one more reason to be divided, as though the other reasons are not enough

madridguy:

Seun:
Its a cache issue. Try clearing your cache and reloading the page.

intervention3:
why are some people trying so hard to cause divide and rule between the Yoruba Christian and Muslim?..these people are just unwise to realize that in south west there is nothing like religion ..anything that affects the Christians affects the Muslim too ..cause we are all Yoruba..and moreover who say Yoruba Muslim families don't give their daughter to Yoruba Christian family? ..that person is the most useless person I have ever seen online ..sometimes I wonder if some people thinks everybody have the same thinking and brain as them