₦airaland Forum

BullBearMkt:
...my simple advise to forumites is to check their facts very well before jumping onto a train-wagon!

The same "leading indicator" tool that was used to predict UACN reaching 16, when price was at 6, is now hovering around 4.5

Bros, nor dey fall your hand like this na. You dey wear any optical organ enhancer? Spectacles or "goggles"?

Please go back to my post on UACN and check the time frame on which I did the analysis.

Check and confirm that it was YEARLY time frame I used. Then please come back to your post and correct that your misleading information.

Thank you.

RabbiDoracle:
Meshpip's much-touted volume adjusted price is just like the VWAP you know.

Look at it this way:

People buy stock A at different prices (high, low, close) and volumes

Let's say (P= Price and V=volume)

So over the course of a period (say 1 hour, 2 hours etc till a day), you see

P1...... V1
P2...... V2
P3....... V3
....
....
....
Till Pn..... Vn

So the VWAP = [Sum (P1V1 + P2V2 + P3V3 +....... +PnVn)] /Sum(V1 + V2 + V3 + Vn)

This computation will give you the Volume weighted Average Price which can be higher or lower than the closing price.

For his "almighty formula" , it involves you repeating this for the particular time frame you are monitoring. Instead oif doing per day, you sum today with the previous day and continue adding till you get the final cumulative value.

Divide this value with the cumulative volume for the period.

Remember each line of the day must have been a cumulative for the previous other ones. That way you be getting a price which he termed "volume adjusted"

Then for the entire period modelled, he will then use Bell curve to distribute it normally by finding the Mean price and the standard deviation.

There is nothing there! Just an academic exercise which has its limitations.

In a sharp and lasting bullish market, it just doesn't work. Example is Google. Will the price every revert to its mean?

Other limitation is the access to price data.

A company like FBN can easily revert to its mean because there are events that js making it lose value.

And I believe that was why he said UACN was a BUY because UACN had been having price RISE in the past and which automatically will make the Mean to be high. So as price dropped probably many standard deviation below the Mean, he thought it was a buy

FA know why.

So you can't use that in isolation in determining asset prices.

BBM, don't let me bore you with academic exercise.

I just wanted to prove to him that I no dey run for number crunching.

This man here is almost becoming a "new convert "

Lol

BullBearMkt:
...then if it's not VWAP don't let us call it VWAP. I wonder how "an average" value can provide you definite point for reversal. No wonder the rate of failure of academia professionals, trying to trade stocks, is high. Simple price action and/or Volume by Price could give you idea what you should expect price may do in the future.

Oga BBM,

Me nor dey use VWAP to determine exact reversal point o! Abeg nor come put weed for my pocket o!

Ever heard of the ENEMY called AVERAGE? Even a dull SS 1 maths student knows that you don't use measures of CENTRAL TENDENCY to determine extremum points. The correct thing to use is a measure of DISPERSION.

Kapish?

Mcy56:
Who else did not understand a thing in this VAP or WAP discussion/calculation?

Me sef been think say na LAP, abi TAP.

Too much book dey give bald head o!

Na only God go save person from all these kain people wey metamorphose from "forest" trading into equities.

BullBearMkt:
...I am a bit confused by the use of your VWAP. This is a tool for intraday purpose & not the way you guys put it across here; maybe unna mean MVWAP which is a different thing. VWAP is used by big banks, investors when they decide to buy or sell to determine if they are buying at a value or selling at a good price.

For example, if @Agba decided tomorrow to buy GTB, he wants to buy below VWAP. Being smart money, buying at the prevailing price is not a value, hence needs to buy below VWAP. He can decide to by 1 STD or 2 STD below VWAP - meaning he's buying at a discount for that day. Same goes to when he wants to sell.

Using VWAP for more than 1 day trading is erroneous! May be you guys mean different thing which I don't know but definitely not VWAP

Kindly note sir that what I do is NOT VWAP. I do my proprietary volume - adjusted price computation. The closest thing I can use to explain it to people is by referring to VWAP.

Secondly, if you were trained on "scale-ability" or prototype designing you will be able to scale out the same principle used in computing VWAP and extend it's use to ANY period of choice.

Simply replace your day with MONTH or YEAR and maintain the same ratios in your computation.

So, your thought about VWAP not being suitable for use except for intraday purpose in INCORRECT.

I have mentioned many times that once you buy below my recommended TRUE price or VOLUME - ADJUSTED price, you have an EFFICIENT entry. Same as the "big banks" do.

I will leave the other parts of my proprietary system out of any other discussion and quite possibly might not respond to any other person's post about me or my system going forward.

Una dey use style receive free lecture.

Abeg make I enjoy my Sunday jare.

When a young lad is felling a tree, it is the elderly person that knows where the tree will land.

I dey wait una. Small by small una don dey reach the same page with me.

I will be patient with you guys. My people say person wey dey stammer sabi him papa name, just give am time, he go pronounce am fully.

I will be patient and wait. I understand as e dey do una.

RabbiDoracle:
I just ran analysis from 21st June 2010 till 31st July 2019

One more piece of information that will be helpful to you attempt at using maths to trade the financial market.

The AVERAGE of a data set can NOT be HIGHER than the highest number in the data set. The converse is also true for the average relative to the lowest number in the data set.

This is the simple reason you couldn't arrive at 19.00 region when you used 2019 prices as your Supreme data set.

I'm writing this for others that might have been at a loss wondering where our VWAP is giving us different results.

Enjoy your day sir.

RabbiDoracle:
I just ran analysis from 21st June 2010 till 31st July 2019 (omitting small part of 2014 due to a significantly reduced trading volume)

Findings:

For 9 years time frame

Using VWAP [Mean Price = 18.64, SD= 3.76]

VWAP mean price is what sir? 18.64 abi?

Yet you have been talking my post down since I came on this thread abi?

I say throat you say neck. Now we are almost getting on the same page.

Another word of advice sir:

The financial market is an unending continuum like we have in fluid mechanics. You always need to refer to a DATUM level or specify the segment of the continuum being analyzed.

How "tall" is tall without referring to a datum?
What is the exact size of a PIECE of paper?

Y'all said I had zero knowledge about the stock exchange market. Yet I have been privileged to take smbcapital's course on equities. Na beans?

I have spent the past twelve plus years of my life trading full time and you people think I haven't learnt lessons from the market.

What would have been wrong with simply saying "we will keep an eye on your analysis" ?

@northeastern has not made a single trade call since I have been on this thread yet he has the effrontery to call me a scam. Has he met me personally or had any dealing with me in the past? So what in the heavens gave him such audacity to spew such?

If only you people treated me a little bit more kindly we wouldn't be bickering over non-issues.

There is a stock that has done 2 consecutive bullish months and has exceeded its volume high for the past ten years. This same stock has taken out the previous 2019 high. Isn't that information people could make a lot of money from?

Instead una carry dey tell me say I nor sabi.

Anyways, I'm not the way many of you see me.

Witches:
@meshpips Help with the volume adjusted price For FBNH and UBA AND ETI

Thanks in Advance.

I checked your profile, quite interesting find.

Here are my thoughts about the stocks you requested.

1. FBNH: yet to touch support at 3.35

I don't think we can see anything interesting on it until after it has touched or breached that level.

2. UBA : demand channel is in place on this pair but I won't feel comfortable taking any buy side trade until after it has touched 3.14 or slightly lower. It is important to state here that the quarterly swing high at 10.56 which was breached to the upside suggests a bullish impulsive move. The current sell can terminate at the uptrend line but preferably the support at 3.14

3. ETI: There is almost no sight of volume activity going on for this stock on the yearly chart BUT a look at the quarterly chart reveals that price is almost at the lower extreme of the supply channel. This might make some buyers begin to get interested.

The charts are posted below.
Kindly note that I didn't have to stress myself carrying out volume computations for any of the 3 stocks because their Price - Time analysis haven't revealed anything interesting.

I had sent you a direct message but don't bother replying. I wanted to send you one stock that has done amazingly beautiful things and closed bullish for the past two months with very excellent volume done. A stock that has breached its ten year volume high but your profile shows that you are the detective hired to come confirm that I am a scam. So I won't bribe you with that gift so that you can do your job with a clear conscience.

Cheers!

Agbalowomeri:
Oracle you get time fa. He doesn't know that there are professors of statistics on this forum.

Your "prof" of statistics wey nor understand the dynamics of a simple mean reversion model.

I await your own trade recommendation on gtbank sir and please be ready to put up a good defence of whatever price level you're gonna mention.

Let me give you a tip : mention the same level as I did. That's how to be smart. If not, them fit fall your hand o!

RabbiDoracle:
In summary, VWAP doesn't make sense.

You can't be using an arbitrary 'look back' time frame. Time will pass, people will make money and you will still be waiting for lookback.

If price decline coincides with your 19 target, it doesn't mean that your model is correct. Because you used a time frame which you can't explain why you are using such. I used for 2019 and I am getting N33.29. So one who used from the date GTB was registered as a bank will have a different data.

So arbitrary timeframe doesn't make sense because we are all not arriving at the same VWAP.

My brother, arrogance will get you nowhere.
first let me inform you that your funny little shortcut calculation you used cannot get you effective result. using OHLC/4 is very very incorrect. I won't bother taking you through the details because you are not humble enough yet to learn.

Next case in point, price below VWAP is what? BEARISH! Insofar as you keep seeing bearish closes on the chosen time frame, the VWAP value will keep decreasing as compared to the previous. This would keep happening until after price has deviated MAXIMALLY from the VWAP. Three standard deviations away from the VWAP is usually 99% of the normal distribution. Only after this pre-condition has been fulfilled before you can begin to expect a reversion to the mean.

Answer this simple question sir:
Has ordinary price deviated maximally from the (VWAP) measure of central tendency before you want to expect a mean reversion?

I'm sure by now you see that reading about formula in books and actually having a RELATIONSHIP with the subject matter are two different things?

With a single breath I have refuted your many posts of baseless argument with me.

Next person please! And kindly ensure that your knowledge of maths is not sickly before you attempt to take on me.

Funny guys on this thread wallahi.

RabbiDoracle:
From what you are saying about VWAP of a stock, GTB has a VWAP of N33. 29 analyzing from 2nd January 2019 till 31st July 2019.

For the those who don't know what he has been saying since.:

Using daily OHLC prices, daily volume, then followed by cumulative Average price volume, then divided by cumulative volumes.

For January 2nd 2019

Average Price = (Open High+Low+Close) /4

Then Average Price *Volume for Jan 2 2019

Repeat this daily till 31st July 2019.

Then sum up all Average Price Volume(APV) from 2nd Jan 2019 till 31st July 2019.

Having obtained this cumulative APV, then you divide it by the cumulative volume (numbers of traded shares) from 2nd Jan 2019 till 31st July 2019.

The final answer is your VWAP reading.

If this wasn't the calculation you used, what then did you use(you don't need to disclose to me o). Kindly check your calculations again.

To get a proper overview you need to go to the "mountain top". Increase your lookback period. My analysis spans about 9 - 10 years of data set.

Witches:
@meshpips Help with the volume adjusted price For FBNH and UBA AND ETI

Thanks in Advance.

I will do as you have requested sir.

pluto09:
As long as you don't have a cscs account with which you buy/trade stocks on NSE, everything you have said here is still theory........

Make I use pidgin English explain your own case.

You sabi drive but the car must be Toyota.

Can you see how intelligent you are sir?

You deserve a statue in the East!

RabbiDoracle:
The least GTB can fall to is N24.5 if all things remain equal.

Afterwards, GTB will hit N60+

Oga mi,

Is this the stuff you are made of?

I would practically bet my left arm that you are and will be proven WRONG!

Let me screen grab this your post for future reference of your trade recommendation on GTBank.

Jeez! I actually thought I was up against stronger analysts and traders.

Well, one down! Two more to go.

@agbalowomeri and @ northeastern please come out and post your own trade recommendation for gtbank.

OBAGADAFFI:
Agree, but it is either the value as gone down (Japul, Dunlop) or gone up( Dangote flour).

When I buy BELOW the volume adjusted price, I am 99.99% GUARANTEED of making profit.

VWAP is a very important metric used by professional traders. My volume adjusted price is very similar to VWAP.

It shows me, per time, the FAIR price (TRUE price) of ANY market instrument.

The volume adjusted price is PRISTINE pure, having distilled between the quantity of buyers and sellers. It now uses the EXCESS buy or sell quantity to compute the TRUE price point on the price chart.

There exist three variables :
(A) Price
(B) Time
and
(C) Volume

Technical analysts have done exceeding great work on the change in PRICE with respect to TIME

Not so much has been done on the change in PRICE with respect to VOLUME

John 3:8 King James Version (KJV)
8 The wind bloweth where it listeth, and thou hearest the sound thereof, but canst not tell whence it cometh, and whither it goeth

You don't see the wind but you see its effects.

In the same way as there is a relationship between VOLUME and the SPREAD (range, high - low) of a candle or bar.

heavenisreal18:
Pls house I need clarification on this, my dad bought a shares of 18500 since 1997, due to the way the company was doing then, he wrote a letter in 2009 for refund. Now the company came to us today that they want to refund the 18500 today without any dividends. Is this right? Pls put me through

I think this is a practical example that would help people understand the TIME VALUE OF MONEY.

18,500 in 1997 (or 2009) cannot in anyway be equal to 18,500 in 2019.

@jamace, I told you that THEORIES have practical applications.

Life is good!

jamace:
Making money does not require too much theory otherwise professors of economics would have dominated the Forbes List of world richest men. That's all I'm saying.

With the level of fall of this market, one need not be too afraid to pick some stocks.

My brother, there are different types of knowledge.

What the professors have is translated "gnosis" (scientific knowledge). This type of knowledge only makes one proud.

There is yet another type of knowledge where the possessor has a relationship with what is known. This is the type of knowledge that produces proof positive results.

How did I decide to use my knowledge of mathematics to trade the financial markets? Sometime in the '90s, I visited my Uncle (an associate professor of statistics at that time in one of the Nigerian Universities) while seeking admission. What I saw in his abode was a total disconnect with the many stories that my dad had told me about this erudite gentleman.

I remember thinking to myself "you mean Uncle cannot use his knowledge of Statistics to trade the NSE market and make good money?" From that point onwards, I was clear about what I would be doing after I graduate from the University - Using my knowledge of mathematics to trade the Financial market!

His knowledge of statistics was not channeled towards doing this (for I know he would have made a huge success of the venture if only he conceived the idea). Knowledge without PARTICIPATION will only make one proud.

This is the reason I do what I do and so differently from many others.

jamace:
Too much theories about money make great opportunities pass us by...

The educational system we inherited from our colonial masters, which we still are using till date, is what makes us THINK that THEORIES have no PRACTICAL application. This is the reason an Electrical Engineer speaks about "theories" with eloquence but if you ask him to wire a 2 - bedroom flat, he cannot. This same mentality is what we have taken into our Religious houses thinking that it is just THEORY and not something for us to live our lives by.

I dare to be different. If your knowledge is not applied, you are no different from the one that knows not!

GladmanGoddey:
In Your Opinion How Long Do You Think It Will Take One To Master The Emotions Of Trading?

A life time.

jamace:
If you are already in any BUS just SLEEP. He that is down needs fear no fall.

There is such a thing as the TIME VALUE OF MONEY.

If the bus go take time to get back on the right track, my brother, CUT THE LOSS 'cos you really might not be able to tell where the bottom would be. For those that like going on adventures, you might stay and try to find out how deep the rabbit hole goes.

Again, I repeat, there is a time value of money.

meshpips:
The price - volume analysis shows that the fair (or true) price of ACCESS is at 5.761

So the buy from 5.80 as seen in the price only analysis is pretty much in order.

Partial profit taking level still remains 7.10 - 7.15 region

NOTE: If the trading data for year 2008 is considered, the analysis will become skewed toward the twenty something naira handle at which the stock opened that year. So I completely removed the 2008 trading data before running the price - volume analysis.

A subtle reminder to that will heed.

The upside for USDJPY is completely defenseless.

The BULLS would run through VERY EASILY anytime they choose to do so.

Price target for the bull run is 108.65 or slightly higher.

Enjoy your trading day guys!

Infinitisi:
All the experts that sprung up from no where then don go hide

I have been asked to go take a chill pill until GUARANTY gets to 19.XX

I watch with tear filled eyes as many lose money but that is just the way life works.

Book wey nor gree enter head go must enter exam hall.

joselcollin:
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meshpips:
USDJPY

Buy limit at 105.44

Stop loss : 50 pips

Target : 106.68

Happy trading everyone!

Target achieved!

meshpips:
USDJPY

Buy limit at 105.44

Stop loss : 50 pips

Target : 106.68

Happy trading everyone!

Trade triggered!!!

Let's see how well this one fares.

Enjoy the trade everyone.

USDJPY

Buy limit at 105.44

Stop loss : 50 pips

Target : 106.68

Happy trading everyone!

RabbiDoracle:
Why you dey bother yourself?

Wait small, we shall soon test your tool when we see that GTB is now 19+.

Thank God GTB is not some illiquid stocks that you can manipulate downwards to achieve your aim.

Okay sir, we wait!