₦airaland Forum

Greetings everyone,

@agbalowomeri or @rabbidorracle one of the two of you asked me to do a time - analysis for a particular stock in the past.

I have a trade recommendation actionable at market open on Monday. Projected to yield 30% (minimum) profit on or before the third week of October.

Kindly send me a message (DM or via whatsapp whichever you prefer) and I will give you the details of the stock.

Thank you.

Bomboclad:
I have checked and rechecked my analysis. From my little insight (no competition here, we are just sharing opinions), GTB would not go lower than its current support of 26.5, baring an unforeseen/negative news.

Here's what I have observed about trading resistance turned support:

Initially, price would bounce BUT the level will fail on the next visit to the level.

For the case of GTBank, we can see a bounce to around 35.XX and then we will see the sell off again.

You're an Engineer (and an intelligent one at that), so I am certain you will understand when I say that I create an UNTO MAPPING. For every price point you see, there is an equivalent representative price in the volume - adjusted version.

The price at 27.02 (year 2013 close) has its equivalent at 19.42 on the volume adjusted version.

Ichimoku's default setting on weekly time frame will most likely pick the EQUILIBRIUM level correctly.

meshpips:
I put up an offer for investment/partnership with me regarding a particular commodity that has reached an extreme level.

The reward to trade this commodity is over 3 times the initial risk.

I also gave how long it will take the trade to reach profit taking level - about 3 months (maximum).

I am willing to do a profit split of 70 - 30 with anyone interested. You the investor gets 70% while I take 30% of the profit.

There just might be someone on this thread willing to risk (maybe 100,000 NGN) in pursuit of an additional profit of 200,000 NGN (or greater) within a 3 - month time span.

This was why I put up the offer on this thread. The product is NOT a FOREX product, it is a commodity.

The FOREX charts I posted earlier were done in response to @northeastern's cynical comments about my ability or capability to trade the financial market. I only wanted him to SEE and be convinced that it is possible to do so.

In so far as we get open, high, low and closing prices and we also have a record of total volume transacted, I can trade that market instrument with utmost and almost unbelievable precision.

At the moment, I am not teaching people how to trade using this method. The only thing I have up on offer is for a joint - venture between me and whoever the risk parameter I gave fits his/her taste.

Thanks for being a tad more mature in your comment.

I do truly appreciate sir.

I made this offer some weeks ago. @northeastern and some others labelled me a thief.

Though I didn't make mention of the name of the commodity and no one from this thread contacted me to make any finding about the commodity.

Here is a picture of what has transpired from the time I made the offer until market close yesterday.

Over 2,000 pips sell off on the commodity.

Please let's exhibit restraint in the way we are so quick to paint people black and label them as fraudsters.

The many posts I have been making here have all been in a bid to redeem my image which northeastern has hastily denigrated on this thread. Maybe someone would have seen that I truly know what I have been talking about.

Many completely misunderstood my intent and just felt that I derive joy in making posts on currencies in a thread dedicated to stock trading.

I already mentioned that I don't trade stocks, the only asset class that I can use in an attempt to redeem my wrongfully battered image was currencies.

@northeastern, I hold nothing against you but you have made many miss out on what could have been a blessing to them in this period that the stock market has been unfit or not too profitable to trade.

Please, let's all learn from this.

Thanks everyone

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Thanks for sharing.

Bomboclad:
@BullBearMkt, you are on point with your analysis. I have attached here my analysis on GTBank and I have strong reasons to believe a massive uptrend is in the works based on the day-chart in unison with other indicators.

Also, I strongly doubt if GTBank would get down to 26, which is below the major resistance line, unless 2Q results are disappointing, which I doubt.

Lastly, the 52 week low for GTBank is 26.65, which occurred on the 9th of July this year.

You picked the same level - previous resistance which we now expect to hold as support.

Reason: You are working with ordinary price.

The volume adjusted price shows that 19.XX is the corresponding price with a one-on-one mapping with what you see as 27.

Only with volume adjusted pricing can you see where the true price or equilibrium price is situated.

Ordinary price will mislead and is responsible for the horrendous losses many have experienced in the stock market.

currentprice:
@ meshpips

incase u....

Bro, @schevy has done more than enough enlightenment about Darwinex on the FX thread. I am very very aware of the myriads of places online or otherwise where one can source to trade clients money.

I am currently being assessed by 2 fund management firms. One in Singapore and the other in the United States.

When I asked you to contact me about an opportunity for traders that you might be interested in, I wanted to give you the link to the company in Singapore but you responded that I have nothing to offer you. So you didn't even bother contacting me.

meshpips:
Let me quickly lend my voice to this GTBank discussion going on here.

Kindly see chart below:

1. Price has currently retraced 61.8% of the most recent bullish segment.

2. 27.02 was the previous resistance which should now hold as support.

3. 18.18 is the penultimate support. Undoubtedly an excellent price to buy from by all standards.

4. A third touch of the uptrend line for this year is at 16.08 BUT price broke out of the previous equi-distant channel so we might not get a third touch of the uptrend line.

Recommendation: Buy at 27.02 and hold until 41.00 or slightly higher.

NOTE: This analysis is based on PRICE only. Once and if I do the volume adjusted pricing, I will give you an efficient level to buy from which is supported by volume.

Disclaimer: The content of this post is strictly for educational purpose only. I will not be held responsible in the event that any loss comes as a result of following this trade recommendation.

Who remembers this analysis done using PRICE only?

Notice that @BullBearMkt picked 26 which is just one naira lower than the level I mentioned? That's because he is looking at ordinary price.

If I provide him with the volume adjusted chart, he would see that 19 is where the true price for GTBank is situated.

Anyway, I await price at N19. Any other upmove is only for a short time.

onegentleguy:
This world is indeed a funny place.
So u are now seeking advise(even thru pms) from someone u once mocked, called a loser, a deceptive fellow and a club twerker masquerading as an analyst.
Just why would u possible wanna do that? ...it's not normal.

Anyway, ur sins are forgiven. ...to err is human, to forgive devine.
There's absolutely no need to hold anything against u or anyone else for that matter.
I hope u learn a lesson from this going forward.


Regards.

So them do you this same thing abi?
They are still trying to repeat same with me.
I just dey laugh.

RabbiDoracle:
How is volume a leading indicator?

It happened in the period past doesn't mean it will happen in future.

Market is not machine o.

Market can be very irrational.

When there is a public offer, a certain number of shares is distributed in varying amounts to different people. Over time, the quantity of shares remain the SAME.
just like you have the law of conservation of matter in Physics, I can choose to call this the law of conservation of stock quantity.

Everyday, different people buy or sell for different reasons. The volume bought or sold is what I keep track of. This is what the TAPE shows you - EXACT AMOUNT TRANSACTED on the buy side and sell side.

If the buy volume exceeds the sell volume, there is a rise in price. The opposite is also true for a decline it price.

When I mention volume, this is what I mean. It is different from what others do in the financial market. The closest to what I do is VWAP but they didn't make the computation robust enough to use for other trading periods apart from intra-day.

Let me ask a question that would get us thinking a bit:

If stock XYZ traded 7million units yesterday and closed BULLISH, does this mean that NOBODY sold stock XYZ yesterday? If at least one person sold then what quantity out of the total obtainable 7million units did he sell?

This is what I compute period by period and then create a one-on-one mapping back to price to create exact price points. So that I can now enter either at the exact volume adjusted level or at the nearest support (when buying).

Ehen, because you have given me an opportunity to post let me update the house on the progress thus far on my currency trading account today.

Agbalowomeri:
And you don't know that fundamentals feeds directly into indicators right? The real fundamental gurus are the ones who analyse economy or management direction/strategies and can deduce afar what the results would likely be and they start accumulating which feeds into your indicators. So in the real sense, fundamentals leads TA. Some of us that claim FA only analyse the outcomes/result of the real fundamental that had changed long before it reflects in the result but not everyone has strength to go into Oyingbo market to price flour like Oga Wanaj

Tell me the fundamentals that will bring gtbank down to 19.XX

See the chat I had with someone who is a branch head of a bank some weeks ago. Notice what he kept hampering on? "What would make price rise that high"

Y'all are wired the same way.

A wise man sees evil afar off and "arranges" himself. The converse is also true for opportunities. Una wan see before una go believe.

BullBearMkt:
...from the daily and weekly charts, the stock looks ready for bulls to start pumping up the stock price, however the monthly like many other stocks on NSE, seems there is still little room for bears to bring it down. If I were in your shoes, I will be buying stage by stage...

@valentinenwoko,

You contacted me via direct messaging earlier only for you to listen to what Northeastern was spewing about me.

That UACN was what I recommended for them to buy.
Ever before they released the Q2 earnings report.
Traders/Investors here are yet to come to terms with a LEADING INDICATOR like price adjusted volume which shows you the futuristic projectile.

Many still dey wait for fundamentals.

Okay o!

pluto09:
@ oracle:

You started this talk again on forex o when you asked about Meshpip trades.
Make una carry una forex talk to forex section o. Forex kills pays faster o

. . .

By the time I am done with y'all in this thread, una go understand why I nor fit ever readily put my money inside NSE equities wey na "buy only" to come worsen the matter it is not leveraged.

Shebi una dey see as the profit dey enter small small?
The account size is very small compared to amounts you guys use in trading stocks.
Na small small profit I still dey make but make we just remember say na from clap them dey enter dance.

RabbiDoracle:
BOE has always been a day after Fed. Copy copy.

I expect them to cut rate too albeit marginal.

Maybe not, they might use the opportunity of this USD weakness to strengthen the Pound even further.

The volume adjusted price of the Pound is still about 300 pips higher than where it is currently trading at.

Check the sequence: H4 has a new bearish segment. While D1 did a new high compared to the previous day's candle and also failed to make a new low.

If there is a good time to prop the pound up, today seems to be it.

Make we dey watch sha

RabbiDoracle:
@Meshpip,

Fed fund rate changed (now 2% to 2.25%) as discussed earlier. . . .

So how is your GBP/USD pair doing?

I am loving the volatility the rate cut report has created.

Sydney and Asian session have been really good so far.

I have offloaded all my buy side USDJPY and have just one last sell on GBPUSD to cover.

It's time for me to get some shut-eye so that I can be properly refreshed before London session.

Northeastern:
I can see that in your quest to build credibility here, like you were advised to . . .

Just so you know.

OBAGADAFFI:
This is what we expect from our CBN.

The US rate is used as the prime lending rate globally. This rate cut will have a domino effect on all other rates globally within the coming weeks and months.

They are having a big challenge with getting inflation back above 2% in the US. The only method that has been used to do this is by cutting rates - the reverse of what the Fed Chairman (Lockher or what's his name again) did in the 80's.

They might also want to try tinkering on the employment figures. Reason this month's non - farm payroll will be of great interest to the erudite investor.

Interesting times we are currently in.

Interesting to know that the Bank of England has its own rate announcement tomorrow. The week would be rounded up with the employment report for the US.

What an amazing week this is! If the market doesn't get sufficient propelling force after all these economic reports outlined above, nothing go fit help am.

Next week is gonna be lit!

Interesting to know that the Bank of England has its own rate announcement tomorrow. The week would be rounded up with the employment report for the US.

What an amazing week this is! If the market doesn't get sufficient propelling force after all these economic reports outlined above, nothing go fit help am.

RabbiDoracle:
@Meshpip,

Fed fund rate changed (now 2% to 2.25%) as discussed earlier.

Like I told you, it isn't cast on stone. Anything can change depending on the data Fed is looking at.

So how is your GBP/USD pair doing?

Here's what I have done thus far for today.
I had to close the 0.35 lot sized trade for risk management reasons. That was a few minutes before the news.
So far, so good. The real party will begin when my buy limit orders get filled.

RabbiDoracle:
25 basis point rate cut by Fed.

Very good work! They put 2.50 as the previous rate. But what we have in the Fed's papers is 2.35%

I have expressed my concerns about the possibility of them dropping the rate BELOW the 2.25 % lower band.

Now we are fine, the currency markets are reacting excellently well. I have 30 pips as the standard deviation for the H1 chart on the Pound-Dollar pair.

I'm just awaiting a little more sell off and then I will buy the minute price fails to make a new low.

With the cut in rate, the fixed income market will become unattractive to investors and so we will see capital flight from fixed income into equities. That's when y'all stock traders will get your own share of the groove.

DelTel:
I admire your courage and viewpoint.

However, it's misdirected: if by any chance the stock is flat, how will he get his #200k back after deducting statutory buying charges when buying and corresponding deduction of statutory selling charges when selling .

Stock Market is either gain or loss.

Bond, Money Market, even Fixed deposit is guaranteed income (no matter how small).

I respect only Surplus Funds should be invested in stock market.

With all due respect, I want to believe you weren't around during the last capital market crash and meltdown and you are not licensed to offer investment advise. I would advise you get certified first. Then you can pitch this to Pension, insurance, investment, mutual funds organizations. Thumbs up.

I have been trading the financial market for over TWELVE years. I've been there and I've done that.

Does money have a time value?

If yes, does the return in % for bonds and T-bills exceed the current inflation rate in Nigeria?

My brother, I have given him the best possible advice and recommended a stock that is trading BELOW its volume adjusted price.

If my proprietary method of trading means anything, this guy should have much more than 50% profit by December.

Like I said, let's allow time tell the whole story.

What I do is not what you would find in books on Finance, valuation etc. This is purely knowledge that is esoteric. Sorry, I'm having to sound this way about this "new technique". I await the day the method would be faulted.

DelTel:
Your advice thought noble shouldn't be for someone looking at short-term. This is one of the attitude that killed the Capital Market. Capital Market is futuristic and best for long-term investment hence only Surplus Funds should only be invested in stock market.


Furthermore, I would advise you keep your stock buying decision confidential (I don't think you are a stockbroker or financial advisor duly licensed for such or you have insider info which is a crime - insider trading).

Op expressly said he needs this funds to get an apartment in December. Therefore he is first looking at the safety of the fund before yield. Stock Market is volatile.

Invest your money in guaranteed investment like Bond, Money Market. (yes low interest but sure).

Do make sure you patronize only CBN/SEC licensed firms/companies in your dealings.

I asked him to buy a stock that is already trading BELOW its volume adjusted price. There is only one direction for this stock - UPWARD!!!

If by any chance the stock is not in decent profit by December (a very unlikely event or possibility), the stocks can still be sold and converted to cash as N200,000 would only buy a few quantities of the stock currently priced around sub-six Naira.

I am extremely confident of my volume - adjusted - pricing model, let me allow the results speak. Those that saw the Q2 earnings report are already saying the fundamentals look very good.

Let's allow time tell us the whole story.

Optimisticgondy:
Still buying

Bro, please when that stuff is ready, kindly send me a mail.

I'm not available on whatsapp today only skype.

Thanks.

Good morning everyone,

the UPSIDE for GBPUSD is open, naked and defenseless until 1.2209 region.

That should be ultra - easy 50+ pips for anyone who buys around the 1.215X region where price currently seats.

The financial markets are gonna get a "jolt" tomorrow night.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-key-reason-why-the-fed-struggles-to-hit-2-inflation-uncooperative-prices-11564318800

The Fed might be forced to cut rates by greater than 25 basis points.

This would affect everything else globally as the markets are "tuned" to the US Dollar.

@onegentleguy, thanks for taking out time to write.

I appreciate your candid view and would see how I can do as you have said.

Thanks again.

bojbest:
You should have waited bro. You may not ve luck to break even next time

His entry is okay IMHO.

7Alexandre:
Imminent Reversal Possible @1.2110

Please see chart below

Bought @ 1.21320

Moved stops to Breakeven Already...

Risk Free Trade

bojbest:
1.12100 is a place bulls could take over.
Till august 1 after the inflation report on Gbp pairs, if there is a good data, bulls could win. But if its a bad data London bridge had fallen b dat

Cool!

Sunnycliff:
GBPUSD Sell 1.2132
Tp 1.2100
SL 1.2150
GBPJPY Sell 131.75
Tp 131.00
SL 132.00
GBP CHF Sell 1.2028
TP 1.1990
SL 1.2050

Bro, I bought at 1.2127 and I'm holding until 1.26XX

It has been FREE FALL on GBPUSD since last week.

Who can be audacious enough to tell us where the selling will stop?

Give it a try guys! Let's hear you.

meshpips:
Thanks for the good work you are doing sir.

In my honest opinion, any stock that has breached its 52-week low should be on everyone's watchlist.

Compute the 52 week average price on excel (simply say : =average (a1:a52)
Where A1:A52 represents the array of weekly closing price per week.

Now, we know the 52-week mean/average price

But mean is a measure of central tendency. So we now need to know how far away from this mean price needs to deviate to the downside before it can start looking attractive to buyers.

To be continued. . .

Bottom Fishing For Stocks Using Simple Maths - The Importance of A Datum (Reference Point)

In my last post, I explained how we can compute the 52-week average price using the closing price and an excel sheet. It is important to state that there are many other methods of obtaining an average price over the same 52-week period some of which are:

1. The typical price = (High + Low + Close)/3

2. The weighted close price = (High + Low+ Close + Close)/4

3. The Median price = (High + Low)/2 etc

All the above mentioned methods are ways of obtaining a measure of central tendency (remember mean, median, mode form elementary mathematics?). Now from this central value acting as a datum (reference point), we can now begin to say how CHEAP or EXPENSIVE a stock is. Remember, it is all done with reference to a datum.

A "tall" man in China just might not appear to be so tall if he stands amidst a team of professional basketball players in America. So the question then arises: "how tall is tall?" Is there a minimum requisite height to be attained before one can be called "tall"? If a 5 feet 4 inch 'tall' man stands next to a 4 feet 3 inch tall midget, the 5 feet 4 inched person is undeniably "taller" than the midget or would we have put it in a more appropriate context by saying the midget is "shorter" than the man. Because in my honest opinion, 5 feet 4 inches doesn't qualify to be referred to as "tall".

Same way, in the markets, the terms "overbought" or "oversold" can only be used with reference to a particular look-back period. For instance, I can say that stock XYZ is underpriced for the next 14 weeks . Yet this same stock might be over-priced for the current day.

I'm trying to make us see the importance of a datum or reference point when doing our math-work for a stock.

I will pause at this point and wait for feedback. I need to be sure that a few on this thread are finding the information useful and would love me to continue. I don't want to get myself into a monologue that is in actual fact irritating to members of the thread. So I will guage the "acceptance" of what I am sharing by the feedback (quality and quantity) I get before knowing whether to continue or just keep quiet.

The ball is in your court now!

Intendy:
Stocks with new 52 week lows

NCR #5.80k
Uac prop #1.13k
ETI #8.00k
Total #114.80k

Stocks with new 52 week highs

Dangote flour #19.60j
Lasaco assurance #0.37k

Thanks for the good work you are doing sir.

In my honest opinion, any stock that has breached its 52-week low should be on everyone's watchlist.

Compute the 52 week average price on excel (simply say : =average (a1:a52)
Where A1:A52 represents the array of weekly closing price per week.

Now, we know the 52-week mean/average price

But mean is a measure of central tendency. So we now need to know how far away from this mean price needs to deviate to the downside before it can start looking attractive to buyers.

To be continued. . .