₦airaland Forum

tritritri:
Yariya am confused on next step to take . Buy zenith or not...i hope it not my village people teasing me again ?

In times like this, it's better to set some criteria that will serve as a guideline or your entry trigger, for different stocks you intend to buy.

For example, I intend to buy my first batch of Zenith when it gives me 15% dividend yield, which is around 18 naira. This is a good safety margin for me. And I'll continue to average down at intervals if the fall continues.

However, I use other gauges which may actually make me enter at plus or minus 18, such as trading momentum, day of the week, etc. For instance, if Zenith gets to 18 on Thursday, I may not buy, because Friday is often more bearish (especially during bear period) and I may have a chance to get it for 17.50 or less on Friday .

Just sharing....not a recommendation.

mendes911:
5. Small Small Small investors like you after buying, will wait for 1 month and realise that prices are still falling. Panic sets in after 6 weeks and you then sell to small small trader like me. ���

There is no time frame in my post. So you have no idea how long I will hold when I eventually buy.

Your panic forecast is definitely not for me .

Index is putting up a fight around 35k as expected. But it will crack soon.

How deep it will go when it does cracks, is what is unknown….25k?

I prefer to let volumes thin out a bit, particularly with the big caps. When big volumes are still trading, it may suggest the big players are still fighting it out, which could still lead to some unexpected big offers, crashing prices further.

Here’s what I think is playing out: (I may be completely wrong though)

1. The SMART foreign investors have already jaaaa’ed; they sold to the foreign investors doing longer throat for interim dividend

2. The LONGER THROAT foreign investors (after chopping dividend) will wake up and start selling to the mugu foreign investors, who will eventually get trapped or sell at loss

3. The MUGU foreign investors will sell to local institutional investors and big retail investors, or convert to long term, when they realize the magnitude of their loss.

As all this is unfolding, volumes are thinning out and prices looking more attractive .

4. We the small small retail investors will then start picking up the scraps and wait . (This should be the so called bonanza period ). But if it’s looking like the bonanza might not go round, we too will join the scrambling at number 3.

The cycle will start again with the SMART foreign investors moving in again to mop up from the frustrated mugu foreign investors who now want to get out desperately.

Right now, I’ll say we are somewhere around number 2.

Not a recommendation please!

Dangote Cement has entered market, to restore orderliness

Yayira:
If you believe he’ll wait till February before buying then Musty00 Jesus was born in Ghana and Donald John Trump is the president of Nigeria.

Lol

So you don't believe

Yayira:
one day as you’ll be typing Zenith your phone will just crash..

Chibuking81:
Example, when Zenith was
@ #28, if one has sold his/her 1 unit at #28 and waited for bonanza period, which will come up by January,February& March next year during election period, and buy back the same Zenith @ #14 per a unit, that mean, he/she will get 2 unit @ #28, meaning one unit is free. The same goes to Fedility, when it was @ #2.60, Fcmb, @ #2.70, Diamond bank, Honeyflour and many others.
Many stock will give those who sold on time, 2 unit free, per a unit sold and buy back.
Those that will still sell now, will still get one free, when the time come.

Even though the market is still likely to go down further, don't be sure about those timelines as bonanza period.

Given where prices are already, the best thing is to be monitoring targeted stocks along side index.

Do you know that after February 13, 2015, when Guaranty and Zenith almost traded at the same price (Guaranty-17, Zenith-15.62), there was a very strong bull run. Guaranty moved from 17 to 25.5 and Zenith moved from 15.62 to 21.75. So if you're pegging February as bonanza, you may be left behind

koma1:
Please what is the meaning of Bonanza in NSE context? People on this forum always say they will wait for Bonanza period before they buy.someone should explain please. Thanks

Lol....

Bonanza period is when you get stocks so cheap, that you can get 2 or more times its value in a matter of time (BUY 1 GET 2 or more FREE).

Chibuking81 will explain better sha.

Mcy56:
Oga say make you drink bitter lemon or yoyo-bitters, say e go dey easy to execute.

Lol

We're learning and improving. Fighting itchy fingers has improved a lot. The last time I bought a stock is May ending (almost 3 months ago). Couldn't do this before. And it has saved me plenty of money

Prices are falling at unexpected speeds. If it continues like this, some of my planned first batch entry prices will be met next week, which is supposed to be the beginning of the main bear season. The question is, by now much more percentage can some stocks still fall this year?

Abeg where those Agba prices again?

fxuser:
Quote:

How to deal with difficult emotions

▪️ Notice what's arising
▪️ Label it —this is fear; this is anger.
▪️ Stay with the symptoms without generating additional stories in your mind.
▪️ Observe how it passes away on its own.
▪️ Redirect your attention to your plan.

- @yvanbyeajee

#drinkBitters

This is key, but tough to execute

Here's how some stocks are doing. From their Year High closing prices to Yesterday's closing prices.

Zenith and Guaranty are already close to their percentage loss from year high in 2014. Looks like this bear go harsh o.

My itchy fingers will soon be tested again

Yayira:
Wehdone oo.. keep coming at me whenever I say something about zenith..
BTW Money wey go enter my pocket no be loss.. 70k was the loss as at yesterday no add 30k wey dey my pocket join..

Nice day Sir

Lol...we are here together

Yayira:
N1 ? Where ? Or you mean GTB? Even Gtb was 1 naira 5 kobo.. Anyway it was 0.70 for zenith today.

BTW Yemi Kale say Nigeria still dey inside recession so una no even no comot for recession before

Zenith lost N1 in total.

From 22.85, it was first marked down for the 30k dividend you will chop soon (22.55), then it lost 70k (21.85)

Agbalowomeri:
What happened with ASI calculation today?
Dangcem, GT, Zenith, NB ati bebelo lost at least 2%, how come ASI was positive?

Yeah, there's something wrong somewhere (it has to do with Dangcem, whether it closed at 229.5 or 215)

The ASI has been updated (-1.71%)

Agbalowomeri:
What happened with ASI calculation today?
Dangcem, GT, Zenith, NB ati bebelo lost at least 2%, how come ASI was positive?

Yeah, there's something wrong somewhere (it has to do with Dangcem, whether it closed at 229.5 or 215)

Yayira:
They’ve never been in the same category right from time na.
And moreover from each of them 52 weeks high GTB is @ - 18.16 naira while Zenith is -11.66 naira
So there’s nothing fast here let alone “faster”.. even dividend wise zenith try pass gt

Zenith has actually lost more (-34.80%) than Guaranty (-32.46%) from their respective highs.
Zenith is always ahead in terms of dividend yields, but Guaranty always rides on its bigger brand name (or supposed higher quality)
When there is serious bear and they have both been beaten down, I prefer Guaranty because:
1. Guaranty will give you higher price appreciation and also faster, and this will outweigh the difference in dividend yield
2. Guaranty is more resilient against price fall when bears show, thus providing enough room to bailout with one’s profit intact
But when the market eventually becomes stable, without any major bear in view, I prefer Zenith because:
1. Zenith offers many attractive entry and exit points, while Guaranty becomes stagnant and expensive
2. Zenith offers higher dividend yield
Summary: If we witness the likes of 2014/2015 bears, I will prefer Guaranty.

tritritri:
See me see Trouble ooh. So you fit talk NORMAL... no more oil for ur p u s s y , Sorry ooh but r you up to 40yr ?

Lol

fxuser:
some are scooping early
some are scoping slowly
some are yet to start scooping
some hv postponed scooping to Q4/Q1


#timing

Hmm...nice one. They're all strategies ! Everyone sticks to the one that works for him/her. That's the way the stock market works.

Hmm....Guys lined up for Transcorp at 1 naira

A SHORT TERM reversal is likely soon (between now and Monday)

Today will make 9 days losing streak. It might not go beyond 12 days. This might help index to struggle to hold at that 35k in the short term.

This August is the month to round up any portfolio reshuffle. September go bad.

Just thinking o.....Not a recommendation please.

wanaj0:
We are affected more by than anything else!

Check other emerging markets where there is no election to better appreciate the issues.

When there are multiple factors that could affect a market at a particular time, it's often difficult to tell which is having more effect than the other. Even though most emerging markets are falling across board due to US interest rates, the fact that Nigeria has an additional negative tension in the air (election drama) makes the NSE a riskier market for now compared to the others. Hence the need for CAUTION.

Even though there is bear now and some prices already look attractive, if you weigh all the factors, it is more likely that the market will fall more, than seeing any bull soon. So the point is why would I buy a stock now when I can get it much much cheaper soon.

And mind you, US interest rate/elections apart, we're entering a period that is often bearish on NSE most years.

Nevertheless, I don't think prices will fall as much as they did in 2014/2015.

It's just my opinion, no one can tell surely what will eventually happen.

Yayira:
The headline is enough no need for long story..
Let them announce us to the world

It's important for people to read the article so that those who think that election uncertainties have no impact may start having a second thought, and adjust their plans accordingly.

austinkenneth:
@Yayira
There is nothing wrong with predicting that a stock will go down.

Stocks can either go up or down. Why are people only happy when the prediction is in the upward direction?

From Yok's posts, we could all see the handwriting on the wall in the past months: Massive sells from the foreign guys...It's not about fundamentals, it is election fever. If they are selling that much, something will have to give: Prices will go lower.

GT is the biggest component of the MSCI Nigeria index. They haven't been dumping it so much. The price of GT in the next months will depend on whether or not they decide to dump it. It isn't about fundamentals. Same for all stocks in that portfolio.

Do not be caught offside. Better protect yourself.



He who has ears, let him hear.

On point here! Gauging market mood is important, even before you buy fundamental stocks. Why buy a fundamental stock for X naira when you can get it for X/2 naira in a few months. It's like deliberately losing money.

It's better to miss a mini bull than to lose huge money.

mendes911:
Some baskets are 1-way for a very long while...

I didn't say going in and coming out. I'm talking about those who are already in and want to get out.

Agbalowomeri:
Basket

I still believe there should be a minibull in August before the downpour
We cannot continue like this till December
But I chose to dash the market that one
Still enjoying my village breeze till December

Lol . I get you.

Agbalowomeri:
Basket

It will be an escape opportunity for those who want to bail out.

All the interim dividend banking stocks (UBA, GUARANTY, ACCESS, ZENITH and STANBIC) gained today. This has not happened in months.

It seems the interim dividend hunters are around. The long awaited BULL may be loading.....

Just observing....

currentprice:
where is zenith, gtb, access and uba (UGAZ) H1, no result no delay notice

Their results still far o, unless they drop earlier this year.

Going by last year, this is how their results came in.

U - 24/08/2017
G - 15/08/2017
A - 23/08/2017
Z - 10/08/2017

They're the ones holding the market right now from free fall, because of dividend

Mcy56:
This trouble you are looking for upandan when you are just coming out of one.........hhmmmm

Lol

Mpeace:
price list as at 28/12/2014 shows that Zenith was 30% higher than the price you quoted. Use tgis link, and insert the date you want to check in that box that has date.
http://www.capitalassets.com.ng/Research.aspx?sel=1#tab4

Zenith closing prices:

Jul 30 - 25.60 (year high)
Dec 18 - 15.37 (year low)
Dec 31 - 18.41 (2014 closing price)

Mpeace:
Story. Just go and draw the price list of 2014. Pre 2015 elections did not bring in those prices. Zenith for instance did not lose upto 2naira in that year. The real fall came after buhari took over. That was when we saw those real lows. That was also when we saw the naira really fall with crude prices. That was when investors really wanted to bail out because buhari in his "wisdom" did not see any reason to defend the naira.
Prices fell pre election but most stocks did not lose more than 15%. They did nit lose as much as 2015 when loans started going bad.
The reason for the present fall is not just elections. Its more of an investment decision by foreign investors which decision not just affects nigeria, but the entire emerging markets.

The bolded information is not correct. Zenith had a high of 25.60 in July 2014 and a low of 15.37 in December 2014 (39.96% loss). I posted this 2014 information before for a number of stocks. There was massive loss. The reason for the loss is another discussion.