₦airaland Forum

yok:
MARKET UPDATE CLOSE OF BUSINESS 29 NOV 2019

Both results from Cutix and Fidelity were very disappointing, far below our expectation. Next from Monday we start seeing the reaction of the market!!!
Company Expected result Actual Result
FCMB 11,499 10,791 See our twitter post this morning
Cutix 193 141

The next plan of action is to see how we can manage our position to ensure that we minimize the adverse effect of negative growth in earnings if we are in any of these equities.

Going forward the loss/gain for the week is as follows for the Allshare Index:
Weekly +0.04%
Up to date 2019 -14.09

[b]Caution: [/b]This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source. Also, Institutions can afford to suffer big losses without going burst compared with an individual, you cannot follow them blindly (you need to at least have some knowledge/your own plan). This document remains the personal property of Target technical analysis https://twitter.com/AnalysisTarget
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FCMB you mean

rebekah2011:
Thank you, Sir. same to Oga RabbiDoracle too. But the problem will be how fixated one can become by looking at the market price alone should the market price drop to say N10 for instance. It is possible. However, Zenith, Gtbank, UBA, and some other stocks have proved over the years that the more challenged the economy becomes the easier it becomes for them to turn in tidy profits. Equity at the right entry price is still the best form of investment.

Comfort zone to hang around for Zenith is 25, Guaranty 40.

Sell Zenith anything above 30, Guaranty 50 and queue again.

Zenith often provides many entry and exit opportunities. Guaranty is more stable. It all depends on individual strategy.

aremso:
Oga, you cant be sure of anything in this country oo! it is only death that is sure

Lol

You're right. But the likelihood that Zenith will see 30 is 9 in 10

RabbiDoracle:
Will it be the same this year? Though their calendar shows same date.

Not sure o. The info is just to calm expectations.

rebekah2011:
If I have N100m, I will put everything in Zenith Bank and just be collecting dividend and wait to sell when it gets to N30 because I am very sure it will get to that price.

Simple intelligent strategy!

RabbiDoracle:
FCMB result, where art thou?
This should be earth-shattering

It came out November 29 last year

locodemy:
You don see bottom?

Better hold any bottom you see tight.Na em sweet pass..

That's the difficult task.

Not likely to fall though, if there's a general rally. Could be trading side ways.

CashDiMkpa:
This your permutation eh.....

For this market? Stop enriching your broker at your detriment. There was no rally when Q2 was announced and there will be no rally when Q3 is announced. What you see as a mild rally when Q1 was announced is because it was announced around the dividend qualification date.

Lol @ the bolded.

What I described is not a short term JIJO. It should take about 2 months to pull off, if one keys in now. Not a recommendation though.

You think there was no rally around Q2? A rally doesn’t have to be measured from when the results are announced. It could start weeks before or even after the announcement. The price movements we saw in August and September is still a rally (for a bear season), and it can be attributed to Q2 results.

Anyway, my post is based on my belief that there will still be a rally this year, which will most likely be led by Guaranty. I might be very wrong. I see that you don’t foresee any rally happening this year again, so I get your point.

What I described is what I think could play out between FCMB and Fidelity when/if a rally shows. I may be wrong too.

If there’s no rally, we continue to chop dividend.

onegentleguy:
Soon some folks will understand why I prefer that coy(FCMB) ahead of FIDELITY. ...and ACCESS ahead of UBA.
Did state as much in the article below:
https://www.booksie.com/604507-p2p-analysis-weighing-in-on-the-value-accretion-between-access-bank-uba

Make no mistake; I love both stocks.(FCMB & FIDELITY) ...just that for some peculiar reasons, i'll prefer to align more portfolio weighting with the former than the latter !!
We shall keep ACCUMULATING more, should price drop. Infact we are currently on the buying queue with one of them.

It is well.

Fidelity is likely to rally first because of the 1 month delay in FCMB Q3 result.

It won't be a bad idea to ride with Fidelity first, then bring the proceeds to join FCMB on its way up to catch up with Fidelity

swilo:
If only Transcorp was a bank...

Lol

Mcy56:
But they used to lead before. Seems the elders are exerting their authorities this time around.

Not sure about this. The big ones often get attention first during recovery from a bad bear season.

Mcy56:
Why is FCMB and fidelity yet to join the train?

No fear. They're very respectful, they often give way for their elders (Tier 1) to bulldoze the road for them first.

By the time the elders are tired, they outrun them

swilo:
50%, well never say never. What will really decide is what their Q3 says. I mean UBA / Access.

Yes. When Q3 comes out in about a month's time, you will see movement in these banking stocks. We already have an idea of what their results will look like (I mean the likes of UBA, Access, Zenith, Guaranty). When was the last time these ones threw in a bad result. As long as the results suggests they can maintain, at least, last year dividend, it's fine.

Between now and Q3 results is an opportunity to key into cheap stocks before they depart.

currentprice:
honest UBA still available to grap. it will cross 7 to access soon

the bank H1 too good to over look

If you know you know. I won't be surprised if it does 50% before December 31

DeRuggedProf:
Some banking stocks are presenting a better DY, they will rise faster and close the gap before the movement becomes more uniform, after that, the full bull will emerge where no one will remember the DY again.....

Banking stocks are where to be right now. They move the market. They're still selling at huge discounts. The likes of Transcorp will also deliver, come the bull. Though I'm not looking this way.

DeRuggedProf:
Thanks so much. I was actually arranging time to do this for my JIJO analysis.

You're welcome Prof

Warming up for bulls! Stock prices are gradually edging up as they did in 2017 before the main bull came in January 2018

The table below shows how some stocks performed during the 3 week bull in January 2018 (from last trading day in 2017 to the highs they attained before the bull wound up). These are closing prices.

Observations
-Top performers are mostly Tier 2 banks (FCMB topping the list).
-Fidelity had outrun FCMB after H1 2017, but FCMB tried to catch up, hence the huge delivery by FCMB. Fidelity started at 2.46, FCMB at 1.48. This year, dem dey hold each other for shirt dey waka. Watching these two closely, if one lags behind substantially, it might be the one that will outperform eventually.
-Access and UBA didn’t have much strength to move during that bull, they were already trading high at 10.30 and 10.45 respectively, compared to their respective closing prices of today at 7.35 and 6.35. These two have good uptrend potentials. They will deliver this time around when the main bull arrives.
-Same for Guaranty and Zenith, 40.75 and 25.64 respectively, compared to their closing price today at 28.50 and 19.10. Opportunities!

Many stocks are still very cheap right now. We’re not likely to see those lows witnessed before H1 results again this year……..like Zenith at 16.

Just observing…..

BrokerHaruna:
There's no bonanzo ooo. Those dumping are not stupid. Those who know understand that the economy is on a free fall. No one is seriously coordinating the economy. Recession looms. Nigeria needs to wake up. Our leaders need to be held accountable. There's no direction as things stand as everyone is subsumed in the battle of survival and self-preservation.

Is the economy really free falling?

The fall we have been witnessing in the market may have been attributed to trickle down effect of the US - China trade war, and then possibly worsened recently by sell off to queue for MTNN.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/21/emerging-markets-are-bearing-the-brunt-of-the-trade-war-but-they-will-fight-back.html

Mpeace:
I so much doubt those figures. Yok's guys alone hold close to 300million transcorp shares giving about 0.75%. Not to talk about other foreign investors.

Yes, the figures in the financial statements for FOREIGN seem too low to be true. Maybe they are under CORPORATE as well.

Valueinvestor:
Foreign investors usually buy solid stocks with good track record of dividend payment (that's the way they hedge in case of eventualities), they wait and key into good stocks at low prices like nestle, GTB, NB, Stanbic, total, Mobil, zenithbank.
It is believed that no matter how high these stocks go, they will surely come down and that is when to buy.
These foreign investors don't aim too high,their funds making an average of 25% is a good enough for the year, so they don't buy and sell all the time. Capital preservation is the key word for them. These are my personal views, there may be other important factors than the one outlined

Reasonable perspective.

Why is there no foreign interest in Transcorp? Only 0.18% shareholding by foreigners.

maishai:
Oga OGG,there are 10 shareholder with more than 10billion unit of transcorp shares shared between themselves, I suspect they are individuals and yes they possess more units than current heirs holding chairman Elumelu, WHO COULD BE THESE FELLOWS

It's 1 billion o, not 10.

Mcy56:
I think it's an improvement and beginning of good thing as far as I'm concerned. They don't even pay anything before.
As for me, I will look beyond the three kobo but concentrate more on the 100% profit made as a group and over 300% profit made as a company. An impressive result!
It can't be punished much before it continue its upward journey especially if the bull is still around........ My opinion.

No doubt the result is impressive. But with this poor dividend payout, I expect stampede at the exit door next week, unless there is a crazy post election bull which might pull it along. Even people who have made 10% profit on it right now will want to bail out.

During earning season, it's generally a high risk to do JIJO on stocks with track record of poor dividend payouts. One may be caught unaware, particularly with stocks like transcorp that don't release their results at a consistent period of the year. 2017 FY was released March ending, 2016 early March, now 2018 mid February. People should look out for other stocks like this.

Mr. Market will decide its fate. For those of you inside the train, I pray you're able to bail out with your profits next week. Those in it for medium to long term don't have any problem, they can always wait for the next cycle.

Teeonly:
Here you have it.

http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/25004_TRANSNATIONAL_CORPORATION_OF_NIGERIA_PLC_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_FEBRUARY_2019.pdf

3 kobo dividend

1.75% DY

In 2015, the week preceding election day and the week after were very BULLISH.

Looks like same is playing out this year.

Market in a stalemate

6 days RED, 6 days GREEN so far this year.

Maybe tomorrow will decide the direction.

Are we still expecting bonanza?

Agbalowomeri:
At least make december close in green
That gives January the needed power to nosedive

Chai....

Hmm.....Oil price not looking good at all

......and no solution in view to tackle this problem.

Tough times ahead

Today was an opportunity.

fxuser:
all things in order .. good structure , bigger picture also looks good almost like a inv h&s

Thanks. Looked good today

fxuser:
- there are bullish cross deals and bearish ones . . we de observe una for learning purposes
- once price can reject its low of the day and even close above it opening , dats d signal u want to see

#hammer

Can we say Transcorp showed the signal today?