₦airaland Forum

Mcy56:
Lol.

Abeg, who Zenith offend like this?

If you don't have patience you cannot play Zenith. It gets on your nerves. If you can stay in it for a few months you make your money.

Most years, after releasing an excellent result, Zenith will fall before dividend closure date. I normally look for a good low in-between result release and closure date. This is when I like to enter, then I chop dividend and wait till May when Zenith rises well most times (I don't know why). By this time I sell with good profit after chopping dividend (win win)

But sometimes the game is different, like this year. The May I was waiting for turned out to be very bearish, so I have to wait longer now.

If it falls to my range (20 below) before Q2 result I will buy more, with the hope of offloading if I break even.

Disclosure: Zenith constitutes most of my portfolio currently

Mcy56:
Wonders shall never end. CI closed on full offer despite all those initial gragra.

The more you look, the less you see.

This period is somehow. No clear market direction yet. Money under mattress continues.

Hmm....Dangote Cement come market today

The BEAR that is supposed to bring the BULL is already showing face . I was expecting him next week o.

Mpeace:
Nice one. Market better react positively to this.

Given the general market mood, didn't expect much effect from the articles. The best effect is no panic sell-off. For now, sideways trading continues. But if the OPEC decision this week gets oil below 70, things may turn bearish.

Yayira:
Ha! Now you talking.. so you trapped as well ? Lol
Anyway what’s your plan ?
Mine is ‘look another money’ but won’t buy anything till next year

I've said it several times that I'm heavily in the market, but will bail out at any opportunity, but won't sell any stock at a loss.

Before the young bull we saw last week, my position was about 18% cash and 82% stocks.

During that petit bull, I was able to re-balance my portfolio to 47% cash and 53% stocks with small profits. It was entry with good safety margins that made me escape even with profits during that short bull.

Now going forward, I'm waiting for this bull that we're all waiting for. If it comes, I sell as much as I can without any loss to increase my cash position, if it doesn't come, no wahala, I will use the 47% cash + additional cash, if necessary.

C'est fini

Yayira:
You and this your “stay away from tier 2 banks” which of the tier 1 don do 20% since Q1 ? Which of them ?
Diamond from 1.27 now 1.59
Fidelity from 1.81 now 2.27
Funny thing is when it’s time to fall both T1 & T2 will fall but the fast to rise is T2.
Sometimes on NSE is not how well is how FAST.

T1 and their slow motion no wonder Agba say e no dey do T1.

HAPPY EID

You got the bolded wrong o. When earthquake starts, the T1 are the last to fall, and they're the first to get up.

Mcy56:
This thread is silent!
It's been quite a while that dividend info was posted here. I saw that MBenefit was marked down today for 2k dividend.
Teeonly has relented also. It is well o.

We're waiting for bull, you're talking of 2k dividend

swilo:
Bro,

I am gradually reducing my exposure. The way market is going, I do not expect a general bull at all this year. Either way, few stocks are showing good signs. I am watching seriously for the pre-result release bull which will affect select fundamentally sound stocks.

If a healthy bull is not obvious by the end of June, I will leave the market till November/December.

IMO, OGG's recommendations would seem like a prophecy if he shared it in June/July.

No one can surely say when/if a bull will come really. We're all predicting using different tools at our disposal (information/news, previous trends, market mood, upcoming events, etc). Q2 results come out mostly July ending. Last year, the bull came on July 6, some years earlier in June, and so on.

I think there's still room for some patience, so there's no point selling at a loss yet. Sometimes the moment you sell, the bull surfaces. The important thing is to have a plan B to apply as things are unfolding in the market. It's always better to plan for the worst case scenario rather hoping for the best.

I would say I got trapped in the market now just because the bull I was expecting in May turned out to be a ferocious bear. So a new plan had to be invoked.

Let's see how next week will go.

This week traded sideways as expected.

We're still here.

Agbalowomeri:
Breakout alert.........Honeywell

Disclosure; heavy here

So na individual BULL dey reign now

Hmm.....Dangote Cement performed a last minute James Bond recovery magic today. If not....

Agbalowomeri:
Once I exit my current position, na till December. so not in a rush o afterall I trade max 2wice a year

That's it!

This is the strategy I am adopting. I may start cherry picking from October sha. And maximum 3 stocks.

Mpeace:
If you check how many times you have sold and re-entered and sold again to also re-enter all in expectation of bull/bear, and also considered the money paid as brokerage fee in the process, you would realize the importance of caution. Its best to buy low and just wait for your target exit price. Stocks will always go up and down and if you are in the habit of always selling at every up or down movement, your profit, if any, would at the long run be lost to brokers.
Brokers love it when you move. Thats the only way they gain.

You're right! This approach ends up in losses most times. Unless you're really a JIJO expert.

Stopped selling stocks in losses after some past experiences. You say you cut your loss with 10% loss, wait for the stock to lose 30%, then you think you have done a good job, you jump in again, then the stock continues to lose, you jump out again with another loss and the cycle continues.

Only to find out some few months later that you would have been in profit if you had not sold at all.

Agbalowomeri:
I still dey try see which magic go happen wey we no go see bull between now and mid-july

Yeah, there should be a bull here.

yok:
MSCI MOVEMENT FOR 13 JUNE 2018

Yesterday was a selling day. Another indication that one should wait for the opportunity to buy low. This is the reason why I use this index, I was very optimistic that the bulls will return, but with the selling by the fund resuming, this is a note of caution for me to reduce my optimism.

With the weekly NAV being positive and the monthly NAV negative figure below 10%, the risk in the market is still worth taking (note that the NAV calculation is delayed for about 1 day).

Using the fund’s portfolio as a guide, “green” mean buying while “red” is selling.

Caution: This is for information purpose only. Data used are assumed to be correct. However, you may want to verify the data from an appropriate source.
N:B

Due to the fact so many new people are coming to this forum and may not know this use of following the “big monies that move markets”, I will be indicating why/how to use the information. This will be a permanent future of my post to reduce some comments which may prevent the people that understand the system from confusion by people who have not followed how this started. My comment for today for anybody who is doubting the efficacy of following the fund is to look at my recent recommendations for the past 2 months.

These people

Mpeace:
N360=$1
N47= 1chinese yen
Over 60% of imports come from china.
The impact of the naira/yen swap deal is all I want to see.
That could be the difference between 2014 and 2018

It will be interesting to see how this affects the dollar. Nigeria is a funny country sha, even with all the pointers suggesting dollar should fall substantially, it may not happen. We might not see 300.

RabbiDoracle:
I will advise people to stay away from Tier 2 bank for now.

There is not gonna be bull. There is gonna be a bear.

Let's see where prices get to.

There's likely to be a bull. Historically, most years there's a bull associated with expectation of Q2 results, when, is the question.

Mpeace:
Maybe pre-2011general elections (2010) should be the reference point.

I did found some data for 2010. 2010 was not too bearish across board, though some stocks closed lower towards the end of the year. September appeared to be the main bearish month. Most stocks that lost substantially did so in September. I have limited data for 2010 as my stocks watch-list then was small. Here are the few I have:

Agbalowomeri:
Bros which fundamentals are u talking about? You only picked out forte oil the outlier. Virtually all stocks crashed

Yeah, virtually all stocks crashed, there was no respect for big cap, small cap, fundamentals or sector

Calebbold:
It wasn't across broad. That same year(2014), forte oil opening price was 92 naira ( JAN 2nd 2014), and closed at 226 naira ( DEC 31 2014).

Locodemy made a very good point. Those stocks that depreciated massively in price in 2014, check out their fundamentals for the year.

Maybe you're looking at another year. The crash was across board in 2014. I shared something here recently with High, Low and %loss.

Agbalowomeri:
Na Senior Tolu

Tolu go vex with you o

locodemy:
I am now enjoying your write up.
You are an old wine.
which moniker were you using before?
Just say it dont hide it for us pls.

Mcy56 asked this question before. But this is my only moniker here.

I've been learning from you guys here for a long time as a GUEST. I kept postponing registering. You're all my bosses.

Used to read SMN as a GUEST as far back. Been learning from most of the SMN ogas here a long time ago, the likes of Agba, Oracle, Wanaj0, Pa Emma, etc

Agbalowomeri:
Sideways, if oil remains up

Hmm....It would be interesting to see sideways trading for most of August to December.

Remember that the market got 11 straight days bashing in May when oil was at its highest prices.

Now that oil has stabilized above 70 it seems to be a forgotten issue to many, oil will start having any notable impact again when it falls substantially.

For now, other factors can still bring the market down even if oil remains up.

Mpeace:
Maybe pre-2011general elections (2010) should be the reference point.

Yeah, it would be nice if one can get some data for this period for comparison.

Agbalowomeri:
That 2014 sell off was mainly due to crude price crash

Yeah you're right, Oil price was also crashing around that period, but election was also a major factor. I remember the crazy bull that followed when Buhari won and Jonathan conceded defeat.

Let's see how it goes this time.

locodemy:
Thanks.Did you also check the Q1,2 and 3 earnings to know why the price fell in a descending order?

Although 2018 Q2 will give us a clearer picture of what will happen later in the year.

This sell off was across board o, not only Zenith. I only pulled out Zenith because we were talking about Zenith. It was a massive sell off by FPI's, irrespective of quarterly performance. It was transfer of wealth.

I won't miss out of this bonanza this year (buy 1, get 2 free).

We (Nigerians) know that elections will come and go without any war and all those election hypes, but the FPI's won't take any chances, they will still sell. The sell off might not be as bad this year though, no one knows.

I plan to be in full cash before August, IF I'm able to exit my remaining stocks (Zenith inclusive).

This is Zenith's journey to 15.37 in 2014 pre-election year.

The big blow was dealt in the last quarter.

locodemy:
It will be hovering around #25 Until interim dividend is paid.
Sub #18 is sure before December.

Chai

It actually behaved this way in 2014.