₦airaland Forum

airmark:
This is poor comparison and analysis.

Everybody knows that as a CF, you are closer to the goal and have better chance of scoring than players far from it.

Mbappe played only 16 league matches as CF last season and scored 11 non-penalty goals. Jackson played 35 league matches as CF and scored 14. The maths will expose the contrast in quality. It becomes uglier when we consider his numerous chances missed.

I am tired of back and forth on Jackson baba. We know who gets better goal sense, between Mbappe and Jackson. Not even close.



I didn't ask us to sign Mbappe. Anyways, he went to Madrid on a free.

I have already crushed your initial faulty Mbappe and Jackson's comparison, so this your conclusion of 10-goal gap is out of place. The gap between Mbappe and Jackson in scoring, is wider than the Atlantic ocean. Baba, don't go there abeg, you will drown.



I analyse data the right way, by considering the most important metrics.

Jackson is not hated by me. I still believe he can improve, just that I want him to go on loan, develop and return when he is ripe to lead the line and bury big chances properly.

Scoring majorly tap in goals and missing numerous and crucial big chances, is not what we need as a top club. Not when we can get better strikers that will not even cost a fortune while we wait for him to return from loan as an improved player subsequently.

I really miss Abrahamovic.

Again, you miss the mark. Side-stepping the issue and inserting different topics into the mix.

No one is comparing Jackson with Mbappe as players. I am not sure why you've gone on a tangent. The comparison is with ROI on these players you keep mentioning. Always has been.

Why is this difficult?

It's simple logic. We are not spending 100m plus on a No 9 who will only give us poverty numbers at worst, or marginal improvement over Jackson. It does not make financial sense, and this is the direction of the club.

This has always been the argument.

Instead, we should push those funds towards improving the support casts. Upscaling goal contribution from wingers, midfield, and defence. Not £120m on one single guy, who comes in and scores only 10 goals more than Jackson.

Let Arsenal go and buy Dobvyk.

airmark:
This is untrue and you know it. Info we got is, Osimhen wouldn't fit into Maresca's style and his last season's performance didn't hit the roof as the penultimate season probably due to injuries (which might even be a concern). Another striker near the 100m, Gyokeres is at present injured.

There may still be casualties and revelations during the Euros, hence, most teams are not in a rush. The hesitation on getting strikers, is not about defence being our major problem sir.



Euros is around the corner bro, teams are cautious. Even the rumor that Athletico Madrid have nabbed Dovbyk, no funds have been disbursed yet. Just personal terms reportedly agreed. It's too early to jump into conclusion when a player bought this week may get injured during the Euros.



Jackson is unripe to play at Chelsea for now. He should go on loan and develop, we can't be sinking because of his wastefulness. Duran can even shoot better than him and he is younger.

Despite the fact that Madrid won the Ucl with Vini and Jude as their key players, they have added Mbappe. That's a trio that will give you constant double digits and Madrid understood the assignment that competition will be tougher next season and must not be caught napping. Why can't we learn from such template and change a wasteful Striker and get our own trio that will not score a paltry out of numerous chances created? We are competing with Man city and an Arsenal team that may get a natural striker next season.

I knew any minute now, you would bring Mbappe. Let's talk figures. Mbappe scored 20 non-penalty goals last season. That's only 6 more than Jackson.

Let that sink in.


Now you want us to sign Mbappe don't you? . He will fit Maresca's system, even if Osimhen wouldn't. But he will cost £250m minimum. And £500k in weekly wages. Just so we can get 10 goals more than Jackson?

The club say no to this.


Sir, you are being left behind. You are analysing football data from who you like and don't like. We all accept that Jackson is profligate in front of goal. But his profligacy is of a different kind. Despite his shortcomings, he's actually scoring goals. Dude will score 20 goals, and you will be clamouring to spend 100m on another ninjah that will come in and score 27 goals.

airmark:
Baba, we don't have a Vinicius, Bellingham, that will get us those numbers and carry our wasteful Jackson, without getting sidelined for a lengthy period. Both are strong contenders for Balon d'or and I will be surprised if our best player makes top 20.

Also, none of our attackers will start upfront for Madrid, and Palmer will struggle to start for Arsenal. Ancelotti with average materials at Everton is enough to trash this your Madrid point. Fans will use koboko to chase Sterling and Jackson out of Bernabeu stadium before the season ends.

Arsenal are now out looking for a potent striker as that's a major thing that separated them from City last season. Despite having Jesus and Havertz, they are all out now for a natural striker as they don't want to remain pretenders. This is Epl where many teams have mastered the art of doubling and closing down the wingers, once they realize you have wasteful CF, they will be eager to sting you on counters.

Which 2 of Sterling, Mudryk, Nkuku will stay injury-free and guarantee you 15+ goals without PK to complement Palmer's goals (assuming Palmer is not injured) and take us to the summit?

Forget change of tactics that you are talking about. We created numerous big chances last season, the issue has always been the players not capable of burying the big chances. The so-called wrong or weak tactics most times put us on top 3 of big chances created every week.

There's no need of changing tactics that created numerous clear-cut chances just to accommodate wasteful strikers. Change the main culprits at the end of those chances missed, abeg.

The problem is that you are paying attention to the wrong things. If we conceded half the goals we did from last season, we would be in the CL. The club know this for a fact from data analysis, and Maresca knows this for a fact from data analysis. This is why they are not running after a 100million, high-volume, Oshimhen-like player.

If Arsenal are in the market for a volume poacher, why are they not going in for your Dovbyk? They were trying to sign Sesko. Whilst Sesko is a fine player (I mentioned two seasons ago that we should sign him), he is not a high-volume poacher. I don't see them in the market for Gyokeres either. Why not?

Yes, it is true that we do not have a Vinicius and Bellingham at the same time in the team. But this is exactly what the club is building towards.

If Palmer goes on another 20/30 GA season, with 80% of the performances from last season, he will be on Balon 'dor shortlist instantly. If Micheal Olise equals or betters his CP goal tally from last season, he will be in the 15/20 GA range.

If Jackson equals or betters his GA from last season, then he's also doing 15/20 GA. And if I am right and the club is looking for a high-volume scoring winger like Summerville to add to the cast, then we are there.

No one is shelling 100m on a player that will score only 10 goals more than Jackson. Get with the programme.

The powerful, pacy, left-footed Duran is the next ninjah we are backing. This ninjah we know.

airmark:
Then we want to remain a midtable team. No true Chelsea fan should support this.

Sir you are overstating this point. For the umpteenth time, it is not true. Whether we will become mid- level or not will not come down to our no 9 scoring more than 15 goals.

It will come down to a combination of tactical strength and adaptability of the side, as well as support casts scoring 10 or more goals.

Arsenal don't have a high- scoring number 9. They are not mid-table.

Below is a screenshot of Madrid team share of 87 goals scored in the league last season. There's no high- scoring no 9. Surely they are not mid-table.

airmark:
This should be Jackson's replacement while we go for Dovbyk or Gyokeres. I don't want to suffer migraine next season.

Sir, these are not going to happen. Dead it.

It's Jackson, Duran and Washington for the season.

BlueAngel444:
Chelsea are not interested in loaning or selling Andrey Santos, who is regarded as a 'great fit' for how Enzo Maresca wants his team to play, this summer. [via @TheAthleticFC]

Well na bench him go dey play, seems like Cesare may go on another loan. It may even be Ugochukwu or Emeka that may leave on loan.

Gallagher is definitely getting sold

Remember I mentioned a few posts ago that I think one of the surprises for this season will be Andrey Santos. Looking forward to seeing him in the season.

WhoDeyHause:
Everybody is talking about him being another palmer cause he surprised us all forgetting we've had more misses than hits since these clowns came in, palmer's outrage wasn't even because of his talent, it was mostly because it him being a bench warmer when we were asking for more experienced players and missing out on Olise or Kudus to sign him. At least he was still performing when he was coming from the bench and came from one of the best academies in England that produced foden too.
This one I no even know where to start from, Talmbout dovbyk is too old for the new strategy so why did we sign Tosin? Ok spend money since you don't want senior citizen, excuses started dropping for Osimhen and gyokores but they can spend 65m on a 16 year old right winger who might not even be better than Angelo or Hutchinson
See just forget anything premier league or champion league for the next few years, I've already adjusted my expectations according to what I see

The difference is in the amortisation of transfer fees and length of contract.

Chelsea will ideally intend to amortise the transfer fee of a player over the maximum length of contract allowable, so the books look good per financial year, despite spending hundreds of millions. This is why we were offering 8-year contracts last year.

If we sign a 27 year old, we won't offer him a contract into his 32nd birthday. Those last two years could be holiday pay in the PL. So the strategy is to lower that baseline to 24/25, and offer the maximum 5 years allowable. But if you offered that 27-year-old a 3-year contract, then the amortised value per annum is huge on the books. So it's not financially smart.

Tosin was on a free. Therefore, no amortisation. So 4-year contract was offered.

WhoDeyHause:
Ajeh boss no be apari true true,if nothing dey there, nothing dey there
What a see finish.

3 points after 4 games. Absolutely appalling. My favourite Nigerian player of all time is going to sacrifice his honour on top this nonsense.

airmark:
While you erronously believed Jackson would lead our line to win the league last season, below was my post in August. Do I need to post the curses many Chelsea fans later hurled at Jackson?



I don't need to waste time on this as Chelsea already saw the need to replace your wasteful Jackson.

Be that as it may, if you are Juventus Chairman, will you swap Jackson for Vlahovic? No sane club owner or coach would do that and that's why your view that Vlahovic is not a better finisher, is ludicrous.

I will find time to address other horrendous claims in your post. I just parked briefly, to reply this.

Alhaji park well. Vlahovic was valued at £80m +, whilst Jackson was valued at £30m. That's £50m of difference in value.

Whilst Vlahovic is posting 16 goals in the season in a weaker and slower league, Jackson posted 14 goals in the Premier League, with the biggest debate being that he could have scored more.

We don't care about Juventus' chairman. At £80m +, if that ninjah is not posting 35 goals in the Serie already, Chelsea's board have concluded, pound for pound, he's not better than Jackson. And that's the ultimate data-driven verdict.

airmark:
That's one of the issues I have with you - faulty judgement of players' ability. While you thought Jackson could lead us to winning the Epl, It's on record I asked for a better striker before the season started. Eventually, I was right as Jackson flopped in front of goal, repeatedly and we couldn't win Epl as you dreamt.

Sir, you are renowned for faulty judgement of player's abilities..... on an infinite level, everyone knows this. It literally takes up 60-70% of the arguments of this space. You probably go to Torres and Morata, and that's about it for me. You on the other hand though....I will let Dayo and the crew remind you.

To the topic at hand. We did not fall short of winning the league because of Jackson. That's disingenuous. You recommended bloody Vlahovic. You think he instead of Jackson would have won the league? Are you seriously kidding us.

On the other points, I make good judgement with data. Chelsea has won the league only twice with a striker scoring more than 20 goals. Matter of fact, the first two league titles were won by all of the support casts, not by main strikers. This is despite having renowned names like Crespo, Mutu, Shevchenko and Drogba.

Madrid has no renowned no 9 scoring 20+, yet they coasted to a CL trophy.

In the years of Liverpool's dominance under Klopp, they had no renowned no 9.

Arsenal did not fail to win the league because they had no renowned no 9.

The list goes on.


----------
The likes of you would have preferred Darwin Nunez to Jackson 3 seasons ago. Until they show up in the PL and are posting poverty numbers. Meanwhile Jackson shows up and scoring 60% of Nunes' total in one season, despite his misses.

Tactically, the one very important thing you completely miss is that Jackson is a hardworking, intelligent and elite-level footballer who constantly makes runs for his team mates and shows up in the right places. This is a precursor to missing chances in the first place. That's an inherent ability.

The fact that he misses chances doesn't automatically equate to Vlahovic arriving in those same right places. Therefore there is an argument to be made that it does not automatically translate to higher scoring prowess.

In all, no one is saying that for the right player, don't upgrade Jackson. That's not even close to what the debate is about. I for one would sign Alvarez in a heart beat.

But to be bringing us Dobvyk, Muniz, Vlahovic all because you don't like Jackson is pure nonsense.


5 seasons ago, Airmark would have been telling us Bellotti is better than Jackson.

airmark:
Nobody can predict that the likes of Manchester utd, Liverpool, Spurs won't fix their issues against next season. Had we got a better finisher and no injury issues, we wouldn't be stuck with looking at just making top 4 next season.

We created gazillion big chances, and with a better finisher we would have got enough 3 points to make top 4 last season, despite the injuries to key players.

I have answered your question numerous times, this team don't need to spend lavishly on other departments. Get two quality natural finishers better than Jackson, with Tosin added and another quality LW, we can win the league if our players are not plagued with injuries.

We shouldn't' be thinking like Brighton and Aston villa, happy to be making top 4. We should give preference to fixing our major problem - scoring goals.

For the record, no one is content being just top four. I went on record last season with an ambitious forecast of winning the league.

I also have been on record saying our problems last season were purely tactical, and that a better tactical manager would have finished top four easily.

So let's put that whole Brighton, Aston Villa talk to bed once and for all. .

---------------

To the striker situation, again i don't think anyone opposes upgrading any positions; and this includes Jackson. Let's not conflate issues.

The debate is about understanding what is realistic arguments and what isn't.

1. Don't ask us to spend £100m on strikers who are at worst, on par with Jackson, or at best, only marginally better. It makes no financial sense.

2. Don't tell us we need to sign a new striker to compete for the league or even win it. It's just not true.. And there's a plethora of examples.

3. The club is not going to spend £80m on any striker aged 25+. It's just not going to happen. So there's no need recommending those.

zeusis:
Players his age are wrecking havoc around europe. Bottom line is we will not buy summerville EOD

No one cares about farmer's league around the world. I am talking the PL and championship.

How many players his age are wreaking havoc in the PL and Championship?

zeusis:
When summerville was in the PL 2 seasons ago, he scored 4 goals
That is the summerville that is not fit to sit on our bench

That Summerville was 20. What were you expecting a 20-year-old to do in the PL, score 15 goals?

airmark:
And 2 years back to back, they have failed despite the fact that Chelsea and other big guns were snoozing. There's a reason Arteta is now out for a natural striker, despite having great support casts.

I can't remember the last time we won Epl without a natural striker, firing from all cylinders.

I am glad you already anticipated my next questions. Your previous post seemed to be addressing the notion of working our way back to being a top four side, and instead wanting us to compete for the league.

Now you are moving the goal post because you see what is coming. So next question, are you wanting us to buy a top striker no matter the cost (and ditch any support cast talks), because you want us to compete for the league or because you want us to win the league?

Which is it?

I will deal with your conflation of issues in subsequent posts.

airmark:
We can have a team that can compete for the league title and not just eyeing top 4 like them Brighton. Get a better finisher as 9, and see how we pile up 3 points from matches with ease.

Even with better support casts, Fraudiola had to cough out money to get Haaland - the missing piece. Viola! The apari won a treble.

Most teams will play low block against us next season, and will double up on our wingers and there will be possibility of having our top 9 feeding off that. But, we will be at the mercy of a wasteful Jackson once again.

I believe Maresca is smart enough, to do the needful - get a prolific striker and not a winger/midfielder, masquerading as a striker.

Did Arsenal compete for the league title or not?

zeusis:
Summerville is not fit to sit on our bench. At this point it seems we are desperate for signings and I hope we don't make panic buys.

Currently we have Sterling and Misha on that flank. Only 13 goals between those two all season long. Madueke on the other flank scored only 5. Nkunku who could have stepped in, has been injured forever.

Summerville wey dey tear 20 goals and 6 assists for championship at age 22, you say he's not fit to sit on our bench?

Have you seen our bench lately? Alaye we are not Madrid. We need to build up from the ground again.

To do it right, we need to buy strategically by identifying support casts who can add to goal tally asap, and quickly move away from what is currently Palmer FC.

What if Palmer gets injured at the Euros and cannot feature for the first 10 games? Where would the goals come from?

But if a front 3 of Summerville, Jackson, Olise and Palmer in 10 can each contribute 13 to15 goals, then we are working our way back to a top four side.

Katcall:
Chelsea want to buy Summerville

Chelsea needs Summerville and Olise.

Like I said during the back and forth with oga Airmark, what we need is to upgrade the support cast.

If the front 3 can guarantee 15 goals each, and you have a Palmer/Nkunku that chip in another minimum 15 from position 10, this is more valuable to the team than splashing £100m + trying to buy a marquee striker.

WhoDeyHause:
I don't know why we are not going for Dovbyk.
Tall.
Strong.
Has experience.
Good with linking with his wingers.
Clinical.
First laliga highest scorer in years that isn't from real madrid or barka.
€50 million release clause.
Easier to do business since girona is owned by man shitty.
He'll even help Jackson cause his strength will draw defenders so Jackson can play off him and feed on loose balls but as a pioneer of hot boy FC Boehly says it's sesko he wants. I hope he snubs us for assnal.

Me I don't why you guys still continue wondering why we are not going for certain players. He's 27. It's not going to happen.

I don't believe in selling players who have not had a chance to perform consistently under a solid tactical structure.

We need to keep Colwill and Badiashile.

Ibime:
Na under pressure wey we dey see Champions mentality, not in interview

Let's not forget Maresca got sacked at Parma mid table in Serie B and almost wilted with Leicester from a comfortable position.

Make we dey watch

I think this is one appointment where there's unanimous siddon look mode from fans.

BlueAngel444:
James red card suspension wasn't reduced

So no James beginning of the season

Gusto can't even go to olympics because of this and new manager, I get why many players are not happy including Enzo but Enzo is already going to Copa so he better just sit back and work hard.


James Disasi Tosin Cucurella

Gusto Fofana Badiashile Colwill

It's sad our current back four options doesn't give room for attacking LBs like Chilwell and Matseens. Chalobah will also get sold. I wonder what combinations Maresca will choose.

Hopefully selling Broja, Matseens and Chalobah would be enough to keep Gallagher.

Don't be surprised if Gallagher is the first to be sold. Maresca has a mandate to unlock £100m Enzo, so he's the first name on the sheet in midfield.

Then there's the other £100m Caicedo that he needs for the energy in midfield. That's two slots gone.

The third slot will be down to whatever is trying to do tactically viz-a-viz familiar faces. Tactically, he might deploy Palmer (familiar face) as 10 and use pure wingers. Word on the street though is that he fancies Lavia a lot. And then I also think if everyone is given a clean slate, he will be surprised by Andrey Santos.....

This means he can deploy either of those two at the base of midfield, alongside an inverted RB in James and Gusto.....and then use Palmer on the wings.

For depth, he could turn to Casadei, who he managed in the first half of last season with Leicester. And thers's also Nkunku as another possible 10 in midfield.

So there's fewer reasons to keep Gallagher when the club can fetch £60m for him in this window. My gut tells me this how they have analysed it.

andrewbaba44:
It seems you chelsea fans are sleeping on Estevao signing

Time will tell and e good as the boy no get hype like that.

We are sleeping. Maybe he could turn good. At this point though, he's nothing special and I will take Angelo Gabriel over him everyday of the week.

kingBolton:
Rewriting history in our front...
If you check well most of the guys hailing Rudiger now, attributed his improvement to tuchel's community def.

Not true. There were a few like myself who didn't get the Rudiger cursing. Any underperformances at the were grossly overstated..... from mostly people who could not see past a temporary struggle.

I always thought he was a very good defender and I am not shocked he's doing well now. I also refuted 3ATB thing. It was bad attempt at the time for explaining why he turned good overnight.

The truth is that he didn't turn good overnight. Like A40 concurs, he was always seriously good.

Oga o. Who's going to stop this machine?

hensben:
This is Maatsen some persons on here want us to keep, you think you know more than people seeing this player everyday.

Na wa for you. You close your eyes for his performance all game?

It's over

You knew that was coming. And that's it.

Android17:
I think this is being overanalyzed.

xG is entirely probabilistic which means it is based on the likely outcome/possible outcome (for all penalty takers in the sample size). That number just means any player has an 80% chance of scoring from it.

To that end, GodX is right.

Except this is purely singular opinion and not entirely representative of real life.

Tell us why you think teams have a designated penalty taker if every player has equal XG.

airmark:
@Nateevs, let's even agree that Vlahovic is not good, if he still managed to have a better goal per minute than Jackson in league games, then how was I wrong to have preferred him to Jackson last summer?

Like I stated earlier, Juve will not be stupid to swap Vlahovic for Jackson. Never!

I just realised that you previously replied to my last message.

He didn't have better goal per minute ratio than Jackson. Please fetch the numbers. I am happy to be corrected.

Jackson even missed a full month with the squad from AFCON. He would have scored more.

The problem is you misunderstand the whole premise of the debate. It comes down to two important factors.

1. No one is saying that Jackson is better than Vlahovic. At least, not at this point. But statistically, at this moment, no one can tell me that Vlahovic is better than Jackson. Jackson plays is a pacier league, Vlahovic does not. While Vlahovic is trying to adjust to the pace, Jackson already registered 13, and even missing a ton of chances.

2. In terms of value for money, based on last year's figures, Jackson was significantly the better buy. Jackson cost £30m and produced 13 non-penalty goals. Vlahovic would have cost nearly £90m. If he's not scoring 39 goals by comparison per season, then it's wasted money.

It does not matter what Juve would or would not do. I was here in Drogba's first 2 seasons. You should see the abuse. Juve would not have bought Drogba off his first season performance.

Godx:
Penalties are easy that's why they have an Xg is 0.8. 80 out of 100 times they go on. Am wasting my time on people arguing against basic maths.

Not jumping on this argument but this is bad deductive reasoning. Every player has a dedicated penalty taker for a reason. And the reason is that said player offers XG of 0.8 scoring the goal.

But statistically, this is just one player from a squad of 26. This XG does not translate to more than 1/26th of each sample size. Therefore your extrapolation is wrong.

If you are to measure approximate XG per player in each squad, average XG per squad may drop down to 0.2, making it the generally acceptable XG for penalties across the board.

BlueAngel444:
nateevs is RDZ still going to be the new manager 👀

I sent with RDZ because he is Egbali's preferred option. And Egbali seems to always get what Egbali wants.

But it seems Joe Shields has garnered clout in the dressing room due to his successes with recent transfers. And Joe Shields will always prefer anything mirrored after Pep's model.

If it turns out to be Maresca, then it is what it is.

raumdeuter:
I saw on Twitter that Mikel is claiming that Drogba and him were the reasons Nigerians started supporting Chelsea

Who will say they started supporting Chelsea because of Mikel who was on the bench most of the time

If you planned to watch Chelsea because of Mikel then you won't see him at all

Truth is Roman purchase blew up Chelsea fanbase in Nigeria then Mourinho

I'll say Kanu moved more Nigerians to a football club (Arsenal) than anyone

One of my childhood friends who used to support Chelsea in the mid 90s switched to Arsenal when Kanu moved

This is correct. I don't believe Mikel ever had that type of clout, even though he very likeable.

Kanu single-handedly moved fans to Arsenal.