₦airaland Forum

kcnwaigbo:
You are forgetting Obi can still win majority vote.You are not factoring the LP votes

get out of here!
We re discussing real issues here

LordAdam16:
For the record, I still think Asiwaju is the frontrunner, but typing as if Atiku has no path to victory is very ignorant.

At first, it seemed like Tinubu would humble Atiku in many Northern states courtesy of the governors. At the moment, it does not seem so. Yobe, Gombe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Adamawa, Zamfara, Nasarawa, Niger, Bauchi; before you know it that 700K votes margin don evaporate. Gombe and Bauchi have removed 300K already.

Then you enter SS. Obi performed well on election day, but the PDP structure have started doing their abracadabra. Delta, Akwa Ibom, Rivers, and Bayelsa will come through for Atiku. Cross River, Edo, Bayelsa were tight in 2019, you can look at the results.

Did Atiku need Lagos and Kano vote? Absolutely! But that could mean Atiku winning with a close, tight margin; rather than the usual 3-5m margin.

Part of the Northern establishment came through for Atiku against the governors. Tinubu was supposed to win Katsina and Kaduna. You should hear about the commotion that went on in Katsina with soldiers when Tinubu cleared the first 5 LGAs. Are you hearing anything from Ganduje, El-Rufai, and Badaru? E choke them.

Even Borno no sure for APC again. Election ended since Saturday. Do you think they're still counting votes or horse trading?

If Asiwaju loses in spite of the help from G5, Kwankwaso, and Obi; he would lose his influence outside SW.

-Lord

bro calm your balls.
Atiku have deficit of almost a million in south west.
He is loosing Lagos with over 400k
He lost Ogun with over 240k
He lost ondo with over 250k
He lost Oyo with over 200k
He lost ekiti with over 150k
He gain 20k in Oyo.

In north east, atiku won yobe with 47k
In gombe atiku won with 173k
In bauchi he is winning with less than 200k
Adamawa is not out but atiku is not winning with over 200k
In taraba atiku is winning with less than 200k.
Tinubu is winning borno with decent margin


In north west atiku lost kano to tinubu with over 300k
In kastina atiku won tinubu with 7k
In sokoto it is a tight race-
In jigawa it is a tight race
In kebbi it is a tight race.
In Kaduna atiku will likely with less than 100k
In zamfara tinubu win with decent margin

In north central
Atiku lost kwara with over 250k
Atiku lost kogi with decent margin
In Niger atiku lost narrowly
In abuja atiku won narrowly
In nassarrawa too close to call for anybody
Plateau atiku will win with less than 200k


In SS no block votes for pdp in any state
In SE pdp lost all the states

Do the maths

OmoFiditi:
Urchins and fake hope. Dem use Thiefnubuu skull wipe ground for Katsina, Kano and Yobe. Dem don call all him strongholds finish, yet he still lose Osun and Lagos.

Bwahahahaha.. Your tears go sweet me well well. .

mumu.
Atiku won kastina with 7k votes

Loosing to APC in kano with over 300k votes,

Loosing to APC in Lagos with over 400k votes

Where Atiku was seeing bloc votes to offset the margin

Kwashiman:
For a APC stronghold state that's an embarrassing showing!

you guys re actually dumb. Atiku needs 65% of NW and NE votes to win this election.

Atiku already lost in SW,SE,SS and NC. But he has the spread. If he cant win NW and NE by 60% then the election is over.

Fake,

toffyz:
Okay, I will list them now
North East ( His Strongest Hold)
Adamawa
Bauchi
Taraba
Yobe
Gombe
North West
Jigawa
Katsina
Kaduna
Sokoto
Zamfara
North Central
Niger
Nasarawa

Comment: I am confident of all the states I listed here except Nasarawa state. It will be very close there. All other states listed above, AA will have more than a hundred thousand votes gap than the runner up, also except Kaduna and Katsina ( May be less that 100K)

PDP have never won yobe and zamfara, since 1999.just yesterday all the traditional head,religious head,e.t.c converged in zamfara govt house and endorsed Bat.

All the present and past govs of nassarawa are all present in APC, same thing too in zamfara all the former and present govs re in Apc yerima,yari and mattawale
,just forget this states PDP don't stand a chance


Kaduna south is the stronghold of PDP in the state while Kaduna central and Kaduna north belongs to APC. Unfortunately for PDP Kaduna south is also the stronghold of labour party in the state meaning labour party will share votes , PDP don't stand a chance here.

Kastina is laughable though i don't know how PDP want to win buhari state that they lost with over 900k votes in 2019, plus the fact that buhari have repeatedly endorsed tinubu both in English and Hausa.

APC won sokoto in 2019, but I think if APC will lose here it will be a small margin. Cos wammako have literally depleted PDP in sokoto. I still don't rule out the fact that APC might win here based on the recent defections of pdp bigwigs to apc.

toffyz:
You got it wrong in some states though.
In general Atiku will have majority votes in northern parts, while Tinubu and Obi will share the Southern votes.
Watch out for AA
He's the next president.
Mark my words
I have created a thread on this before. I will share you the link

that's a vague statement, if you are confident enough. You should mention the states atiku will win in North.

Lithiumite:
APC will win Kano,kwankwanso alone wouldn't be strong enough to match APC structure in Kano,same for shekarau ....if they had joined forces,then they could have had an edge.

Jigawa though have same voting pattern as Kano but jigawa is more balanced this time between APC and PDP and jigawa can go either way.

Even if Buhari hates tinubu's guts so much as all this people claim,APC can loose the entire country but not Katsina.

As for NC,APC will equally win nassarawa.....all the past and present governor's are in same party and they are more United than ever,even almakura that is if the CPC stock in APC is solidly behind tinubu......LP will cannibalize the votes PDP should have gotten in nassarawa.

Worst case scenario,if atiku wins the entire NE and NW,tinubu can still maintain a healthy margin of 10% which is certain he will make up .or with NC and SW.

Another angle, that means nassarawa is a done deal for apc, that kano can go either ways. Just don't want to be overconfident about Bat taking the state.
As for jigawa , I think kwankaso will mutilate pdp votes. Even if Apc didn't perform well in North eaar, yobe and Borno can't fall to PDP
I don't know why pdp re jubilating over kastina,like it is 100% sure for Atiku. Though APC lost some bigwigs to pdp. I still think it will be an insult on Buhari to lose his state to opposition. I still maintain the fact that APC will take kastina as parting gift from the president

bobobenz:
BRO YOU ARE NOT ON GROUND IN RIVERS STATE LOL... I AM MARRIED TO AN IKWERRES WOMAN AND HAVE LIVED IN OBIO AKPOR ALL MY LIFE.. PETER OBI WILL WIN WIKES WARD LOL

so who should I trust to deliver.

Wike the gov of rivers that have thousand of foot soilder and also incharge of structure of PDP in rivers state. Or

You that only investment in ikwerre land is your wife😂😂

Honestly can't Blame Atiku, it is waste of money spending on a project that is bound to fail.

This time around Atiku doesn't have the usual block votes from SS/SE.

He won Oyo and ondo in 2019, but Tinubu is going to sweep south west votes in the forth coming election.

North central, Apc will win kwara,kogi,and Niger.atiku will have to battle labour party to win Benue,plateau,and abuja. Meanwhile apc can edge him in nassarawa due to emergence of obi.

North east, atiku will take adamawa,taraba,and bauchi .Tinubu will take borno,yobe and Gombe

Northwest - tinubu will take zamfara,kebbi,kaduna,jigawa, kastina. While atiku takes sokoto.
Kano will be a battleground between kwankaso and Tinubu.

Obviously Atiku defeat will be worse than 2019.

bobobenz:
EVEN WIKE KINSMEN THE IKWERRES ARE ALL OBEDIENT.. THEY WILL LIKELY GIVE TINUBU 25% THO BUT PETER OBI IS WINNING RIVERS

peter obi will come 3rd behind Atiku.
There are over hundred wards in Rivers state, if a ward is projecting 35k , do the calculations and see how many votes Asiwaju will likely get even if 60% completely with wike order.

Svoboda:
Atiku cant even win kano. He has fewer loyalists than tinubu in kano. Gawuna is a crazy tinubu man.

atiku will come distant 3rd in kano.
Kano battle is between kwankaso and Tinubu

Workch:
who said Atiku has a pathway. Dumbo that cannot comprehend a simple post

Tinubu is the only one with realistic pathway to 2023 election.

SecretSpy666:
What CBN need now is to give deadline for submission of old naira notes. So that after ministries in kaduna collect old notes, they will bank it at El-Rufai's house.

El-Rufai's political career is finished. Even Tinubu cannot trust a man that betrayed all his friends and superiors

PDP apologist will rather informal sector crash because of vote buying, that will never end
El rufai didn't betray buhari, it was other way round. Buhari was sharing trader moni on the eve of 2019 election that concerns his ambition but want to throw the country into crisis because of another man ambition. If APC govs betrayed him in 2019, he would have been relegated to daura.

Workch:
As long as Atiku is there to win NW and NE, Tinubu cannot win.
Even if Tinubu gets 80% votes in southwest, if Atiku gets anything above 50% more of what Tinubu gets in NW and NE ( for example in NW, Tinubu cannot afford Atiku to get 1.6m votes, while he gets 1m, he needs to be close 2nd) and Kwankwaso manages to get 60% of whatever Tinubu gets in NW, Tinubu is gone.

SS and SE if virtually impenetrable for Tinubu. Nothing for him, the best he can do is to get just 25% in one ot two states there.

For Tinubu to win, he needs to secure 25% in all 19 northern states.
Or secure 25% in 17 of them and manage to snatch 2 from SS and SE.

This is extremely difficult, knowing fully well that Tinubu will perform woefully in Christian dominated states of Adamawa, Taraba, Benue and even plateau.

you chatting rubbish. Atiku cant win Nw, even is region north east will be shared.

North east - atiku will win adamawa,taraba.
Tinubu will win borno,yobe and gombe.
Bauchi is a battle ground

North west - tinubu wins zamfara,kaduna,jigawa,
Atiku wins ssokoto
Kano, kastina, kebbi will be battleground.

North central Tinubu wins kwara,kogi,niger
Atiku wins plateau, abuja,
Nassarawa,benue, is battle ground

South west Tinubu wins Lagos ,Ogun,Oyo,ondo,ekiti,osun

South east -peter obi wins anambra,enugu,abia
IMO and Ebonyi will be battle ground

South south - atiku wins Delta, akwa ibom
Rivers,Edo,cross river, bayelsa is a battle ground


Atiku has no pathway to 2023 victory

vicdom:
Thieffnubu is a notorious drug dealer, deal with it!
BTW, remember when Umahi said even though he was in the PDP, but he made sure Buhari got 25%. Ask yourself how did he manage to do that if not by vote padding and allocation?? Okay, let Umahi come and do it now

Up Peter Obi, down thieffnubu the drug baron

nyamiris calling Tinubu a drug baron is the funniest thing in this political season
Thousands of nyamiris are in jail in asia for peddling drugs and hundreds of them re waiting for death .
The nyamiris drug barons in south africa brought their cartel battle to ozubulu anambra state,
scores were killed in the church after the cartel missed their target.

Ogbuefi2020:
So why is Tinubu and his allies the only ones wailing?

because cabals and cbn is delibrating punishing your mum,dad,aunties,brothers, cousins nephew e.t.c so that you can hate the ruling party. But indirectly they re making vote buying cheaper .

Okwyjesus:
Vote Buying will be frustrated. Don't cry yet

Go and pour your tears to the cabals working for Atiku in Aso Rock.
Leave lgbos alone.... Onye obi ufu

Obidient are actually dumb , scarcity will only punish the masses not politician. On a flip side the vote buying will be very cheap this period. People that queue hours to withdraw 10k will jump on opportunity of collecting 5k cash on election day.

SenatePresdo:
2015 election is not different, what's different? Tell me just one.

If Tinubu will win APC states in Atiku’s North.

Does that mean Atiku will win PDP's states of Oyo or Osun in Tinubu's West?

in 2015 there was mass exodus of PDP govs,senators,house of reps, party chieftains to Apc.

Is APC experiencing mass Exodus in 2023?

SenatePresdo:
APC has a total of 14 Governors in Northern Nigeria.

You mean Tinubu will win these 14 states simply because he's in APC?

Also remember that PDP had 15 governors in Northern Nigeria in 2015, yet Buhari swept the North over Jonathan.

2015 election events is far different from what we have in 2023.
Tinubu will win Apc states with lower margin compare to 2019 buhari margin.

SenatePresdo:
For Tinubu to win This election without SE/SS, he will have to win the entire North with about 80% just like Buhari did, anything short of that percentage from the North, he's a goner.

When Kwankwaso and Atiku are on the Ballot, can Tinubu even get 30% of Northern votes?

If you know the reason why Atiku won't win the SE/SS in this coming election despite SE/SS being PDP stronghold, You will know exactly the reason why Tinubu will lose the North, despite the North being APC strong hold.

Read the bolded again.

rubbish, tinubu doesnt need to win 80% votes in north.
What he just need is to win APC states plus sw, the get 25% in SS part of SE. Peter obi already cleaned up PDP block votes in SS/SE

Fibonacci88:
Lies. How much new notes was printed that uobe will have 4bn. Urchins keep hitting up the society with sensless message hoping election is postponed or new naira design is suspended. I guys have failed already.

Jmeffy said 300b have been printed, 1.9tr old notes have been withdrawn, there is still 900b old outside the bank

Lizzysamuel:
After Obi said he left N75 billion in cash and investments for the state in March 2014, the International Society For Civil Liberties & Rule of Law (Intersociety) decided to go and verify what was left on the day he left office.

Their investigation revealed he left N86 billion.

peter obi have categorically mentioned it that the money he left was 10b not imaginary 75b or phantom 86b

2elliot:
No be una been dey call Akeredolu names, simply because una fear sey Amotekun go offend Buhari. We saw some of you here call Amotekun a terrorist organization that must be disbanded.

shut up !!! Tinubu support the creation of amotekun

https://punchng.com/breaking-tinubu-breaks-silence-says-amotekun-not-threat-to-national-unity/

Ofunaofu:
It's on record that Tinubu never took a stand as regards the formation of Amotekun, infact he was never in support because he did not want to offend the North

His ambition was much more important than the lives of the entire south westerner

you re a liar, How does been silence during the back and forth between akeredolu and malami means Tinubu is against the formation of Amotekun


Here is Tinubu telling FG that Amotekun is not a threat to national unity.

https://punchng.com/breaking-tinubu-breaks-silence-says-amotekun-not-threat-to-national-unity/

Ofunaofu:
We commend the South West governors for creating Amotekun

But the fact must be laid bare here that Tinubu never supported the formation of Amotekun
He blatantly refused to lend his support because he didn't want to offend the Northerners because Amotekun was going to go after the killer fulani herdsmen and bandits killing and kidnapping people in the entire south west

All these was because of his dead on arrival life long ambition of becoming the president of Nigeria

shut up history revisionist, when akeredolu and malami were going back and forth it was Asiwaju that called them to order and asked them to meet for dialogue.

Soso990240:
so Brazil also sold their match against Croatia? England also sold their match against France? Spain also sold their knockout game? Na shit full Ronaldo fans mouth

you re talking nonsense. Did brazil,england, lost in this manner?
England played France till the final whistle, Brazil dominanted croatia from start to finish.

Are you proud of this boring game as a world cup final?

[quote author= post=119124018]Few days to go, please show us aerial view of APC rally in Kaduna today [/quote]okoro , hope this pics will not increase your BP.

This match would be boring

PaChukwudi44:
But I did not support the SW PDP Candidate Wike in the last PDP presidential primaries?

Neither did I support ize-iyamu like baba shakyshaky did in the last Edo Guber elections

98% of the candidates you support from presidential,lawmakers,governors e.t.c failed

You and your fulani slave master atiku have one thing in common "" SERIAL LOSER""

osinbanjoisaliar:
Guy no divert the issue. Tinubu na minority, period!

if Tinubu is minority ,nyamiris 5% aka dotian is what?

PaChukwudi44:
But I am yet to lose like Tinubu will in the 2023 elections

you have been loosing since the days of GEJ to 2019, down to onnoghen 2018 and Atikulated in 2019