Ositadima1's Posts
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HesInMe:And this will be a check on market fragility? Are you kidding me? P/E can tell you whether a stock is overpriced or not, t’s a valuation tool, not a risk gauge. Using the All-Share Index market cap the way you described makes it even worse. The most capitalized stocks naturally earn the most, so you’re basically measuring the average valuation of only the heavyweights. The smaller names get drowned out. Take TIP for example, it performed very well, but its low P/E disappears in your calculation simply because its market cap is tiny compared to the big players. I think your proposal is flawed for what I intended to measure. A market can be cheap and extremely fragile. ![]() |
Market Fragility Model - Simple Explanation Think of market fragility like checking if a bridge is about to collapse. You don't wait for it to fall, you look for warning signs like cracks, rust, and stress points. The Big Idea This model gives the stock market a "health score" from 0-100: - 0-20: Healthy and strong - 50+: Getting shaky - 80+: Danger zone - small problems could cause big crashes The 5 Warning Signs We Check 1. Liquidity Collapse (40% weight) Simple idea: Is money drying up in the market? How it works: Compare how much trading happened in the last month vs. the previous 6 months. Example: - Last 6 months: #100 billion traded per month - Last month: Only #50 billion traded - Red flag! Money is leaving the market Why it matters: When liquidity dries up, prices can crash suddenly because there aren't enough buyers. --- 2. Concentration Risk (20% weight) Simple idea: Are too few stocks dominating all the trading? How it works: Check if the top 5 stocks account for most of the market's trading volume. Example: - Market has 100 stocks - But MTN, Dangote, and 3 others account for 80% of all trading - Red flag! Market is too concentrated Why it matters: If something bad happens to those few big stocks, the entire market suffers. --- 3. Price-Volume Divergence (20% weight) Simple idea: Prices going up but trading volume going down? Suspicious! How it works: Compare stock price changes vs. trading volume changes. Example: - Stock price up 20% in 2 months - But trading volume down 30% - Red flag! Price increase isn't backed by real demand Why it matters: Price rises without volume support are "fake rallies" that easily reverse. --- 4. Breadth Collapse (12% weight) Simple idea: Are most stocks going down while only a few go up? How it works: Count how many stocks are rising vs. falling, weighted by their trading activity. Example: - 80 out of 100 stocks are falling - Only 20 are rising - Red flag! Market rally is narrow and weak Why it matters: Healthy markets have most stocks participating. If only a few carry the market, it's fragile. --- 5. Turnover Volatility Shock (8% weight) Simple idea: Is trading becoming unpredictable and erratic? How it works: Compare recent trading volume swings to historical patterns. Example: - Normally, daily turnover varies by ±#5 billion - Recently, it swings by ±#30 billion - Red flag! Panic buying/selling patterns emerging Why it matters: Wild swings in trading activity signal nervous, unstable markets. --- Bonus: Volatility Regime Simple idea: Are price swings getting bigger? How it works: Compare recent price volatility to long-term averages. Example: - Stocks normally move ±2% per day - Recently moving ±5% per day - Red flag! Market is getting jittery Note: This is tracked for information but doesn't affect the main score. --- Real-World Analogy Imagine you run a fish market: 1. Liquidity: Fewer customers showing up to buy fish → **market dying** 2. Concentration: Only 3 out of 50 stalls getting all the customers → **unhealthy** 3. Divergence: Fish prices rising but nobody's buying → **artificial prices** 4. Breadth: Only lobster selling well, everything else rotting → **narrow market** 5. Turnover Volatility: Some days empty, some days mob rushes → **unstable** If you see all 5 problems at once, your market is about to collapse! --- How the Score is Calculated Each component gets a 0-1 value: - 0 = healthy - 1 = maximum fragility Then we multiply by weights and add them up: ``` Score = (Liquidity × 40%) + (Concentration × 20%) + (Divergence × 20%) + (Breadth × 12%) + (Turnover Vol × 8%) ``` Then multiply by 100 to get 0-100 scale. --- Why These Weights? For Nigerian/emerging markets: - Liquidity (40%): Biggest risk - thin markets can freeze up quickly - Concentration (20%): Few stocks dominate these markets - Divergence (20%): Price manipulation more common in emerging markets - Breadth (12%): Important but secondary - Turnover Vol (8%): Least critical but still informative --- What To Do With the Score 0-35: Relax, market is stable 35-50: Pay attention, some cracks appearing 50-65: Be cautious, reduce risk exposure 65-80: Warning! Prepare for volatility 80-100: Danger! High chance of sharp drops --- The Key Insight Markets don't crash randomly. They show stress signals first. This model catches those signals before the crash happens, like a smoke detector before the fire.
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nosa2:Lol, to cheer you people up, what’s happening now looks very similar to April 2024 (2024-04-30). Back then, only five stocks gained more than 10%, while forty-one fell more than -10%. That period also followed several strong months, especially January 2024, when sixty-one stocks closed above +10% and only four were below –10%. It felt like a correction after a bullish run. Mind you, it wasn’t CGT then, probably some other news. There will always be news, good or bad. Currently, we again have only five stocks above +10% and thirty-five below –10%. This month also comes after very strong months, especially July, which had eighty stocks up more than +10% and only four below –10%. This reinforces the correction narrative I mentioned earlier. This too will pass, and like you, I still see upside coming in the next few months. |
GeneralDae:Ok, whatever works for you, Brother. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:Most people don’t get it. We said as far back as 2023 that the market was undergoing a repricing. I used to buy Hero for ₦250, but it repriced multiple times , to ₦300, then ₦500 (₦400 in some places), then ₦800 (₦700 in some places), and finally to the current ₦1000. It’s not just beer. Almost everything in the market has repriced. The same LG washing machine I bought for ₦40,000 is now ₦150,000. How do you expect the stocks of companies whose plants and physical assets have also repriced upwards to remain the same? Like you said, much of the appreciation we saw may simply be repricing, not “growth” in the real sense. I don’t have the strength right now, but one way to look at it is to compare the price of these stocks from 2023 in dollar terms versus their current dollar value, assuming the dollar maintained constant value. (Yes, even the dollar has lost some value, but it’s still the best benchmark we have.) |
toyeoye: olig:Maybe you can add alert functionality, it could be an automatic email or a notification if you have a mobile app. Someone should be able to set a target price, volume, or any other market condition and have the alert trigger when it’s reached. |
emmaodet:I think there may be a problem with this. Since they mentioned the ASI, it likely means the individual stock P/Es are first collapsed into one number by weighting them by market capitalization and then applying the 5-year moving average. This means a few giant companies, often called SWOOTs (Stocks Worth Over One Trillion), end up controlling the vast majority of the index’s movement. The chart is useful for a macro view of the economy’s largest players, but it’s a poor tool for picking individual stocks. A 1% move in Dangote Cement matters more than a 20% move in a smaller company. |
leo1234:My friend, I won’t open your laptop and snoop through it. But once you bring these matters to a public forum, expect criticism. The way he behaves smells of a noob, only a beginner would post P&L on an open forum to impress pretty ladies, lol. Keep your business to yourself; once you make it public, it becomes everyone’s business. ![]() |
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Agbalowomeri:Omo scalper, Oun nikan l'o mọ̀ ooo! ![]() |
nosa2:That reminds me of the guy you were arguing with the other time, the "armchair economist" aiming for 1–2% a month @ ₦1.5 million. The same one who announced he’s a landlord at the slightest provocation, lol. His eyes will clear soon. He’s making noise because we’re in a bull period, where most stocks doubled just by holding them. Then he shows up thinking targeting 2% simply because he’s trading with ₦200 million makes sense. Brokers will be laughing, business has never been this good. This is a market that can drop 20% on you before month-end. The guy is clearly a noob. His eyes will clear. There’s nothing you can tell him until he experiences the koko firsthand. ![]() |
Agbalowomeri:The problem with you is that it’s never clear when you’re joking or being serious. If someone rebukes you, you just turn it into a joke and move on. It is well. ![]() |
ositadima1:@essentialone, I told you NCR might hit ₦30, and I ended up being right. I’m just using the 76% return so far as consolation. Some people here make ₦1.5 million monthly, so my small kaya doesn’t really count. ![]() |
stokfrick:Are you sure there’s even a government? I wish us all the best, but I sense dark is coming. ![]() |
Live Is Life. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2: ![]() |
SonofElElyonRet:Agba is like Michael Burry, after predicting the housing bubble in 2008 and making some money, he hasn’t made any meaningful prediction since. In fact, he’s even worse than Agba; he’s currently betting on an AI bubble burst. All his calls are about market crashes, while others are out there making money. By the way, what kind of fixed deposit pays 20%? ![]() |
Valthegreat:I was talking about the person you quoted, lol. We’re on the same page. |
Lol, again? ![]() |
Valthegreat:I sometimes wonder, you’ve made it clear that Ellah Lakes is a bad investment, yet you keep commenting on it. Just bless the so-called “unintelligent” people still holding it and focus on your own picks, lol. |
yMcy56:Deep down, he probably fears that Ellah Lakes’ rights issue might affect Presco’s own, but please reassure him that multiple rights issues can coexist and still be fully subscribed. ![]() |
currentprice:I think whatever the cause, it’s a blessing in disguise, especially for value and dividend investors. They get to buy at prices that will boost their effective dividend yields along with future appreciation. As those exiting now drive prices down, they’ll likely drive them back up when they return. The market is clearly moving on sentiment rather than actual value. If this continues, it might even be possible to earn 15% or more in dividends. ![]() So, if you choose to sell, that’s fine, just make sure you time your re-entry correctly. ![]() |
Agbalowomeri:No loud am ooo, In all the FA and TA discussions, people sometimes forget that it’s people behavior that determines what the market does. If enough people decide to sell, prices will crash, it’s not always about valuation or the company’s value generation. ![]() |
dangle:hmmm, ok nah. ![]() |
I’m surprised the circuit breaker hasn’t been triggered yet, lol. The last time it was activated was because there was too much green in one day. ![]() |
Lagos lori ìfilọ. ![]()
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Agbalowomeri:Lol, let’s see nah. As for me, I’ll keep collecting my dividends. Nigeria is still viable, and businesses continue to generate profits. I’m more of a long-term investor and do jijo as a side hustle. Most of the stocks I own were bought at huge discounts, so I’m not bothered. The last time I funded my brokerage account was early last year, I just recycle my money and haven’t withdrawn anything since I started in 2020. ![]() |
emmanuelewumi:This shows you don’t understand how the ASI is composed. The ASI is market-cap weighted, meaning stocks with large market capitalizations determine its direction. These high-cap stocks make up less than 10% of the entire market. So if just 10% controls the ASI, how exactly does it reflect the whole market? Don’t just take my word for it, you can easily verify this online. Also, a balanced portfolio isn’t the same as one filled with large-cap stocks. A portfolio can be balanced without including those big names, unless, of course, you believe your portfolio is the only definition of balance. In that case, you’re deluding yourself and need to read up on proper portfolio structuring. |
Agbalowomeri:You never get tired of being wrong, I like your spirit. This price action of yours is very subjective; it can be interpreted from several contradictory angles. What if Leo1234 is right, and sellers have pushed the price down to a level where buyers are stepping back in, averaging down, defending positions, or accumulating more? |
emmanuelewumi:Look at EllahLakes, the one you all keep taunting, it lost 5.96%, while your almighty NAHCO dropped 9.95%. How is that possible? According to you, Ellah should be losing 10% daily, lol. Where’s EDUECO now? Since our heated debate began, between your AccessCorp and Ellah, which one has shed more? I’m not saying you can’t air your views, but it turned into a daily reminder of how “bad” Ellah supposedly is, yet actual investors don’t seem to share your opinion, given the resilience I’m seeing. |
Disclaimer: I’m in NCR for jijo, and I’m currently up. |
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