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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:35pm On Nov 23, 2025
HesInMe:
There's an easier, first-order gut check: the current (or, even better, forward) market price-to-earnings ratio compared to historical trends. That's the total market cap of the All-Share Index divided by the total earnings of the listed companies.

Does anyone have that metric calculated by an analyst?

According to Simply Wall Street (take with a grain of salt):
3-year average market PE: 9.2x
Current PE: 8.2x
And this will be a check on market fragility? Are you kidding me?
P/E can tell you whether a stock is overpriced or not, t’s a valuation tool, not a risk gauge.

Using the All-Share Index market cap the way you described makes it even worse. The most capitalized stocks naturally earn the most, so you’re basically measuring the average valuation of only the heavyweights. The smaller names get drowned out.

Take TIP for example, it performed very well, but its low P/E disappears in your calculation simply because its market cap is tiny compared to the big players.

I think your proposal is flawed for what I intended to measure. A market can be cheap and extremely fragile. undecided
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:48am On Nov 23, 2025
Market Fragility Model - Simple Explanation

Think of market fragility like checking if a bridge is about to collapse. You don't wait for it to fall, you look for warning signs like cracks, rust, and stress points.

The Big Idea

This model gives the stock market a "health score" from 0-100:
- 0-20: Healthy and strong
- 50+: Getting shaky
- 80+: Danger zone - small problems could cause big crashes

The 5 Warning Signs We Check

1. Liquidity Collapse (40% weight)
Simple idea: Is money drying up in the market?

How it works: Compare how much trading happened in the last month vs. the previous 6 months.

Example:
- Last 6 months: #100 billion traded per month
- Last month: Only #50 billion traded
- Red flag! Money is leaving the market

Why it matters: When liquidity dries up, prices can crash suddenly because there aren't enough buyers.

---

2. Concentration Risk (20% weight)
Simple idea: Are too few stocks dominating all the trading?

How it works: Check if the top 5 stocks account for most of the market's trading volume.

Example:
- Market has 100 stocks
- But MTN, Dangote, and 3 others account for 80% of all trading
- Red flag! Market is too concentrated

Why it matters: If something bad happens to those few big stocks, the entire market suffers.

---

3. Price-Volume Divergence (20% weight)
Simple idea: Prices going up but trading volume going down? Suspicious!

How it works: Compare stock price changes vs. trading volume changes.

Example:
- Stock price up 20% in 2 months
- But trading volume down 30%
- Red flag! Price increase isn't backed by real demand

Why it matters: Price rises without volume support are "fake rallies" that easily reverse.

---

4. Breadth Collapse (12% weight)
Simple idea: Are most stocks going down while only a few go up?

How it works: Count how many stocks are rising vs. falling, weighted by their trading activity.

Example:
- 80 out of 100 stocks are falling
- Only 20 are rising
- Red flag! Market rally is narrow and weak

Why it matters: Healthy markets have most stocks participating. If only a few carry the market, it's fragile.

---

5. Turnover Volatility Shock (8% weight)
Simple idea: Is trading becoming unpredictable and erratic?

How it works: Compare recent trading volume swings to historical patterns.

Example:
- Normally, daily turnover varies by ±#5 billion
- Recently, it swings by ±#30 billion
- Red flag! Panic buying/selling patterns emerging

Why it matters: Wild swings in trading activity signal nervous, unstable markets.

---

Bonus: Volatility Regime
Simple idea: Are price swings getting bigger?

How it works: Compare recent price volatility to long-term averages.

Example:
- Stocks normally move ±2% per day
- Recently moving ±5% per day
- Red flag! Market is getting jittery

Note: This is tracked for information but doesn't affect the main score.

---

Real-World Analogy

Imagine you run a fish market:

1. Liquidity: Fewer customers showing up to buy fish → **market dying**

2. Concentration: Only 3 out of 50 stalls getting all the customers → **unhealthy**

3. Divergence: Fish prices rising but nobody's buying → **artificial prices**

4. Breadth: Only lobster selling well, everything else rotting → **narrow market**

5. Turnover Volatility: Some days empty, some days mob rushes → **unstable**

If you see all 5 problems at once, your market is about to collapse!
---

How the Score is Calculated

Each component gets a 0-1 value:
- 0 = healthy
- 1 = maximum fragility

Then we multiply by weights and add them up:

```
Score = (Liquidity × 40%) + (Concentration × 20%) + (Divergence × 20%) +
(Breadth × 12%) + (Turnover Vol × 8%)
```

Then multiply by 100 to get 0-100 scale.

---

Why These Weights?

For Nigerian/emerging markets:
- Liquidity (40%): Biggest risk - thin markets can freeze up quickly
- Concentration (20%): Few stocks dominate these markets
- Divergence (20%): Price manipulation more common in emerging markets
- Breadth (12%): Important but secondary
- Turnover Vol (8%): Least critical but still informative

---

What To Do With the Score

0-35: Relax, market is stable
35-50: Pay attention, some cracks appearing
50-65: Be cautious, reduce risk exposure
65-80: Warning! Prepare for volatility
80-100: Danger! High chance of sharp drops

---

The Key Insight

Markets don't crash randomly. They show stress signals first. This model catches those signals before the crash happens, like a smoke detector before the fire.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:09am On Nov 23, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
From correction to Janet grin
Janet drowns only because she refuses to learn how to swim. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:43am On Nov 23, 2025
nosa2:
No worry, DSS go soon come carry you. With these your price expectations you must know of some secret plans to declare civil war in the country
Lol, to cheer you people up, what’s happening now looks very similar to April 2024 (2024-04-30). Back then, only five stocks gained more than 10%, while forty-one fell more than -10%. That period also followed several strong months, especially January 2024, when sixty-one stocks closed above +10% and only four were below –10%.

It felt like a correction after a bullish run. Mind you, it wasn’t CGT then, probably some other news. There will always be news, good or bad.

Currently, we again have only five stocks above +10% and thirty-five below –10%. This month also comes after very strong months, especially July, which had eighty stocks up more than +10% and only four below –10%. This reinforces the correction narrative I mentioned earlier.

This too will pass, and like you, I still see upside coming in the next few months.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:58am On Nov 22, 2025
GeneralDae:
But so many stocks (including the ASI) have also appreciated in dollar terms compared to 2023. I believe Statisense have done these comparisons with May 2023 more than once. If you are comparing the stock market to 2013 and 2014 then you may have a point.
Ok, whatever works for you, Brother. grin grin cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:34pm On Nov 21, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
let look at your position based on my street analysis. You don't believe what is happening recent times has to do with CGT and blood Bath. You believe it is market cycle which means after bull season is correction cycle or bear cycle. My street sense tells me we never really had bull season since this government happened as we had bear season during Buhari. What I believe happened in the last 3 yrs was repricing of ngx assets due to devaluation and inflation on the street. So when did the bull cycle really happen that we have moved to opposite or different cycle.
Most people don’t get it. We said as far back as 2023 that the market was undergoing a repricing. I used to buy Hero for ₦250, but it repriced multiple times , to ₦300, then ₦500 (₦400 in some places), then ₦800 (₦700 in some places), and finally to the current ₦1000.

It’s not just beer. Almost everything in the market has repriced. The same LG washing machine I bought for ₦40,000 is now ₦150,000. How do you expect the stocks of companies whose plants and physical assets have also repriced upwards to remain the same?

Like you said, much of the appreciation we saw may simply be repricing, not “growth” in the real sense. I don’t have the strength right now, but one way to look at it is to compare the price of these stocks from 2023 in dollar terms versus their current dollar value, assuming the dollar maintained constant value. (Yes, even the dollar has lost some value, but it’s still the best benchmark we have.)
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:14pm On Nov 21, 2025
toyeoye:
OANDO under heavy fire today 🔻🔥

...plunged to its session low (-6.17%), after opening at the day’s high... a clear sign of relentless selling pressure from the opening bell.

⚠️At ₦38.00, the stock is now dangerously close to its 52-week low (₦35.75).

Track every move live on StockBubbles.
olig:
unfortunately, I was late again.
Maybe you can add alert functionality, it could be an automatic email or a notification if you have a mobile app. Someone should be able to set a target price, volume, or any other market condition and have the alert trigger when it’s reached.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:49am On Nov 21, 2025
emmaodet:
Why did you say most stocks are over-sold?
Because according to this Meristem research, the current ASI P/E is below average 5-years SD/-1
Which means fundamentally, the average stock needs to be priced up.
I think there may be a problem with this. Since they mentioned the ASI, it likely means the individual stock P/Es are first collapsed into one number by weighting them by market capitalization and then applying the 5-year moving average.

This means a few giant companies, often called SWOOTs (Stocks Worth Over One Trillion), end up controlling the vast majority of the index’s movement. The chart is useful for a macro view of the economy’s largest players, but it’s a poor tool for picking individual stocks.

A 1% move in Dangote Cement matters more than a 20% move in a smaller company.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:50pm On Nov 20, 2025
leo1234:
Your own is to criticize and condemn what you don't understand.
So someone trading with over 200 million naira looks like a novice to you huh

Do what works for you and mind your business. grin
My friend, I won’t open your laptop and snoop through it. But once you bring these matters to a public forum, expect criticism. The way he behaves smells of a noob, only a beginner would post P&L on an open forum to impress pretty ladies, lol.

Keep your business to yourself; once you make it public, it becomes everyone’s business. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m):
lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:46am On Nov 20, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Ahh make he no experience am o grin
Anyway targeting 2% in stock market no make sense. It is working in a bull market but make he no carry that bad character enter bear market sha grin otherwise na eternal averaging down grin grin grin
Omo scalper, Oun nikan l'o mọ̀ ooo! grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:58am On Nov 20, 2025
nosa2:
I have some cash, about 3% of my portfolio size. I don't plan to use it to invest but if the market chooses to get silly in terms of prices then I will gladly use it to buy lower. So if for some reason Zenith goes below N50 I will invest the money knowing that the panic is getting a bit wild. if it doesn't and it hovers around current levels then I will use my money and enjoy my life.

Hope that clarifies things
That reminds me of the guy you were arguing with the other time, the "armchair economist" aiming for 1–2% a month @ ₦1.5 million. The same one who announced he’s a landlord at the slightest provocation, lol.

His eyes will clear soon. He’s making noise because we’re in a bull period, where most stocks doubled just by holding them. Then he shows up thinking targeting 2% simply because he’s trading with ₦200 million makes sense. Brokers will be laughing, business has never been this good.

This is a market that can drop 20% on you before month-end. The guy is clearly a noob. His eyes will clear. There’s nothing you can tell him until he experiences the koko firsthand. grin grin cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:04pm On Nov 19, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Bear never start. Where is the bottom?
The problem with you is that it’s never clear when you’re joking or being serious. If someone rebukes you, you just turn it into a joke and move on. It is well. lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:26pm On Nov 18, 2025
ositadima1:
Not really. Even though they have negative equity due to huge payables, this debt isn’t interest-bearing, so it doesn’t eat into whatever profit they manage to generate. I’m not sure what kind of deal they have with the companies that supplied them goods or services, worst case, they do a rights issue or gradually pay it off over time. Those companies can’t take over NCR, strip it for parts, and sell, they wouldn’t recover their money that way. The only viable option is to support NCR until it’s able to pay them back, so it’s not imploding anytime soon.

Despite all this, I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock reaches ₦30 per share.
@essentialone, I told you NCR might hit ₦30, and I ended up being right. I’m just using the 76% return so far as consolation. Some people here make ₦1.5 million monthly, so my small kaya doesn’t really count. grin grin cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:16pm On Nov 17, 2025
stokfrick:
I strongly feel this 30% level of CGT will chase away investors.
If you struggle to make profit government will divide your profit by 3 and take one part.
But if you make loss you are on your own.
Are you sure there’s even a government? I wish us all the best, but I sense dark is coming. embarassed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:01pm On Nov 13, 2025
Live Is Life. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:18pm On Nov 12, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
It looks na money point or betnaija because no bank will give u such.
I hope baba never dey lie join the matter
cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:48pm On Nov 12, 2025
SonofElElyonRet:
Block him, then repeat the block after 2 weeks.. no need venting
Agba is like Michael Burry, after predicting the housing bubble in 2008 and making some money, he hasn’t made any meaningful prediction since. In fact, he’s even worse than Agba; he’s currently betting on an AI bubble burst. All his calls are about market crashes, while others are out there making money.

By the way, what kind of fixed deposit pays 20%?

grin grin cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:56pm On Nov 12, 2025
Valthegreat:
I never concluded that ELLAHLAKES is a bad investment, I only read that from you. But it is clear to investors already that the management are gamers of which I see their games as a way to achieve their growth goals not necessarily for fraud.
Chuka want investors to keep being upbeat about ELLAHLAKES before the company arrives at his projected destination. It is obvious he is taking steps to get there amidst his theatrics and I don't see anything stopping him. There are so many ways to the top and he is following one of them
I was talking about the person you quoted, lol. We’re on the same page.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:19pm On Nov 12, 2025
Lol, again? grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:16pm On Nov 12, 2025
Valthegreat:
So you were expecting Chuka to give you another lie when you are already holding him on his blockos for his former lies? grin grin

However, I believe ELLAHLAKES turn around is getting closer than ever.
I sometimes wonder, you’ve made it clear that Ellah Lakes is a bad investment, yet you keep commenting on it. Just bless the so-called “unintelligent” people still holding it and focus on your own picks, lol.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:13pm On Nov 12, 2025
yMcy56:
Impossibility is not in the dictionary of this market sir. 😊

The confidence with which ELLAH is going about this, and the fact that SEC approved the fund raising exercise shows there must have been some DD carried out that the company can achieve it, even if not all, at least, a larger part.

Some rumours have it that there are strategic investors on ground to pick up the offers...and that ARPN has strong footing......na hearsay oo.

We see how it goes anyway .....
Wishing ELLAH success in the fund raising program and growth expectations.
Deep down, he probably fears that Ellah Lakes’ rights issue might affect Presco’s own, but please reassure him that multiple rights issues can coexist and still be fully subscribed. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:34pm On Nov 11, 2025
currentprice:
In my opinion, what is happening is the effect of the CGT.
Investors prefer to protect their already hard-earned gains from the market before the CGT policy takes effect in January, then start with a fresh slate in 2026 first quarter.

Based on the (TA), I expected this move to start last month, but the NSEINDEX bounced above 142K to over 150K, giving traders false hope.

although d market can not moves straight down to the expected destination , I expect a slow and steady decline throughout this quarter. The CPC has just added fuel to the CGT fire

whichever, Fingers crossed

grin grin grin grin grin grin
I think whatever the cause, it’s a blessing in disguise, especially for value and dividend investors. They get to buy at prices that will boost their effective dividend yields along with future appreciation. As those exiting now drive prices down, they’ll likely drive them back up when they return. The market is clearly moving on sentiment rather than actual value. If this continues, it might even be possible to earn 15% or more in dividends. undecided

So, if you choose to sell, that’s fine, just make sure you time your re-entry correctly. lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:23pm On Nov 11, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Price is a mirage

Stock market bull is advanced and legal ponzi grin
No loud am ooo, In all the FA and TA discussions, people sometimes forget that it’s people behavior that determines what the market does. If enough people decide to sell, prices will crash, it’s not always about valuation or the company’s value generation. cool
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:13pm On Nov 11, 2025
dangle:
Circuit breaker needs to be activated. ASI down by 5.03% in a day!
hmmm, ok nah. undecided
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:01pm On Nov 11, 2025
I’m surprised the circuit breaker hasn’t been triggered yet, lol. The last time it was activated was because there was too much green in one day. grin grin cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:44am On Nov 11, 2025
Lagos lori ìfilọ. grin grin grin

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:34am On Nov 11, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Whether portfolio balance or rickety, all of una go collect grin
Lol, let’s see nah. As for me, I’ll keep collecting my dividends. Nigeria is still viable, and businesses continue to generate profits. I’m more of a long-term investor and do jijo as a side hustle. Most of the stocks I own were bought at huge discounts, so I’m not bothered. The last time I funded my brokerage account was early last year, I just recycle my money and haven’t withdrawn anything since I started in 2020. grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:18am On Nov 11, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
It still boils down to how diversified the portfolio is


The general market is down by less than 5% but his portfolio is down by 30%
This shows you don’t understand how the ASI is composed. The ASI is market-cap weighted, meaning stocks with large market capitalizations determine its direction. These high-cap stocks make up less than 10% of the entire market. So if just 10% controls the ASI, how exactly does it reflect the whole market?

Don’t just take my word for it, you can easily verify this online. Also, a balanced portfolio isn’t the same as one filled with large-cap stocks. A portfolio can be balanced without including those big names, unless, of course, you believe your portfolio is the only definition of balance. In that case, you’re deluding yourself and need to read up on proper portfolio structuring.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 8:53am On Nov 11, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
The psychology is that when it bounces back by 10-20%, more sellers who didn't have the opportunity to sell will appear and the next journey will take it to 1.5-1.8 grin
You never get tired of being wrong, I like your spirit. This price action of yours is very subjective; it can be interpreted from several contradictory angles. What if Leo1234 is right, and sellers have pushed the price down to a level where buyers are stepping back in, averaging down, defending positions, or accumulating more?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:28pm On Nov 10, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
You also need to consider liquidity


It is also difficult to target and sell at the 52 weeks highest price
Look at EllahLakes, the one you all keep taunting, it lost 5.96%, while your almighty NAHCO dropped 9.95%. How is that possible? According to you, Ellah should be losing 10% daily, lol.

Where’s EDUECO now? Since our heated debate began, between your AccessCorp and Ellah, which one has shed more? I’m not saying you can’t air your views, but it turned into a daily reminder of how “bad” Ellah supposedly is, yet actual investors don’t seem to share your opinion, given the resilience I’m seeing.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:11am On Nov 08, 2025
Disclaimer: I’m in NCR for jijo, and I’m currently up.

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