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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:49pm On Dec 29, 2025
ppogba:
I cannot agree less with your first statement. If there are indeed gurus, NCR would not have gotten to the height it attained without anyone seeing it.

Maybe we should invite a certain OLABAYO that is predicting the outcome of AFCON and suggesting who should and who should not play for the Super Eagle to show interesting the NGX.
This is partially incorrect. We saw clear signals in NCR, especially during the last rally. I mentioned it here when more than 60% of the outstanding shares traded in less than a week, long before the rally. At the time, I commented that it was possible the majority shareholder structure had changed hands.

As with all situations involving incomplete information, we took a probabilistic stance. Then more confirming signs appeared, I entered the trade, and I exited with more than double my investment, if I recall correctly.

I can’t speak for other stocks, but as far as NCR is concerned, we came, we saw, we conquered.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:20pm On Dec 28, 2025
Harddiskng:
Lmao. This man!

If you are not a science student, atleast did you do further maths?

Is acceleration due to gravity a joke to you lol.

At that altitude and acceleration, falling in ocean would make no difference as to hitting a concrete slab lol

Zero or negligible chances of survival in every scenario. If you do, it can only be God. Na to start preaching the gospel all over the world.
As a science student, you should also understand how this works. What Mr. Emma is saying about using loans to acquire stocks is plausible, even in Nigeria. Let me explain why, based on my limited understanding.

You carry out a thorough valuation and identify a stock that is deeply undervalued,essentially at a giveaway price. But, you may not have the bulk of the required funds available as cash at that time, even though you have stable and reliable income sources that generate cash annually.

The plan is to service and clear the loan using these independent income streams, not relying on the stock itself, within a maximum of two to three years. It is important to note that you do not hold the full loan for the entire two or three years; both the principal and the interest are gradually repaid over time.
In this scenario, even if the stock price declines, perhaps because the broader market enters a bear phase, you can still service the loan comfortably. Price appreciation was never the primary source of repayment. At most, dividends from the stock may serve as a secondary support, not the core repayment plan.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:09pm On Dec 26, 2025
Sunrisepebble:
grin
Thank you. Bro.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:06am On Dec 25, 2025
I asked Chatgpt to read the last few pages. grin grin grin

You didn’t bring “a forum discussion”.
You brought a live case study in late-cycle market psychology, ego inflation, and survivorship bias.

I’m going to be blunt and structured. No vibes. No sides.


---

1. What this thread ACTUALLY is (not what people think it is)

This is not:

A serious debate about strategy

A technical discussion about market microstructure

A thoughtful argument about hedge funds or derivatives


This is:

A bull-market brag arena

A status competition masquerading as investing discourse

A classic Nigerian-market late-cycle signal environment


Every character here is playing a role.


---

2. The characters and their real positions

AwesomeJ

This is the most dangerous character in the thread.

Not because he’s stupid — he’s intelligent. That’s the problem.

What he claims:

Near-continuous profitability

Less than 5% red days

Rarely red weeks

Manual trading, 100+ deals/day

Strategy that “scales” to 1% of market volume

Potential to guarantee ~40% returns via a fund

Losses are “absorbed by more profits”


What’s actually happening:

He’s confusing recent realized P&L with strategy robustness

He’s extrapolating liquidity regime + volatility expansion into permanence

He’s mistaking high turnover momentum harvesting for structural edge

He has no explicit loss boundary other than “profits absorb losses” (this is fatal)


> “Losses are absorbed by more profits” is not risk management.
It is post-hoc justification.



That exact sentence appears in every blow-up memoir — from Ololo to LTCM to crypto prop desks.


---

The guaranteed return talk

This is the brightest red flag in the entire thread.

Not because guarantees are theoretically impossible — but because:

Anyone who truly understands tail risk never talks like this

Guarantees require external capital buffers, not confidence

“I know I can make 300% in one year” is pure regime blindness


This isn’t hedge-fund thinking.
This is casino bankroll thinking during a hot table.


---

Mankind2024

This is a textbook long-only bull-market narrator.

Not fraudulent. Not stupid. Just narratively dangerous.

Key traits:

Anchors success to patience, virtue, faith

Attributes skepticism to envy

Uses famous names as moral validation

Ignores valuation because price validated him

Mentally equates drawdown survival with risk control


He is safe only because he is not leveraged.

If leverage enters his world, this mindset becomes lethal.


---

The elders (Agba, Pa Emma, etc.)

They sound “old school” but they’re doing something critical:

They are implicitly tail-risk aware, even if they can’t articulate it mathematically.

They’ve seen:

Margin wipeouts

Liquidity disappear

Brokers change rules overnight

“Audio profits” evaporate


Their skepticism is earned, not ignorance.


---

3. The biggest lie running through the thread

> “If it keeps working, it must be real.”



No.

Markets allow long stretches of false validation.

Especially when:

Volatility is expanding

Liquidity is abundant

Directional drift exists

Retail participation is rising

Turnover is exploding


This is exactly when fragile strategies look invincible.


---

4. Your own position (here’s where I challenge you)

You are doing something right — and one thing dangerously wrong.

What you’re doing right

You explicitly acknowledge regime dependence

You said clearly: “It’s probably riding good times”

You cap exposure (10 stocks, monthly rebalance)

You’re testing with non-ego capital


That already puts you ahead of 90% of the thread.

Your blind spot

You are still engaging too much at the narrative layer.

You’re debating what he does instead of isolating what must be true for it to survive.

That’s the mistake.


---

5. Strip the noise → the ONLY questions that matter

Forget screenshots. Forget banter. Forget hedge fund talk.

Ask these, and everything else collapses:

1. What is the maximum single-day loss this strategy can produce?

Not average.
Not typical.
Maximum.

If it’s undefined → the strategy is incomplete.


---

2. What happens when:

Bid-ask widens

Partial fills dominate

Volume drops 40%

Correlation spikes to 1


If the answer is “profits absorb losses” → time bomb.


---

3. Is the edge:

Structural (rule-based, invariant)?

Or regime-dependent (volatility + liquidity)?


Everything he says screams regime-dependent.


---

4. Does the strategy survive:

A 6-month flat market?

A grinding downtrend?

Sudden 10–15% index shock?


No anecdotes. Only mechanics.


---

6. The Ololo parallel is NOT an insult — it’s a warning

People keep throwing Ololo’s name emotionally.

Here’s the real lesson:

> Ololo wasn’t wrong about direction.
He was wrong about time and leverage interacting with liquidity.



That’s it.

Most blow-ups happen after years of being right.


---

7. What you should do next (precise plan)

Step 1: Stop debating individuals

They don’t matter.

Step 2: Stress-test YOUR system explicitly against:

2008-style liquidity withdrawal

2020 gap-down open

2023 sideways churn


If you can’t model those → don’t scale.


---

Step 3: Define distance-to-ruin

Not emotionally. Numerically.

Worst case loss

Recovery time

Capital impairment threshold


If ruin is possible → redesign.


---

Step 4: Keep your capital boring

Let other people pay tuition to the market.

You don’t need to prove intelligence in public forums.


---

8. Final truth (no comfort here)

This thread is a late-bull echo chamber.

The loudest voices are the ones least prepared for the next regime.

The quiet ones — cautious, skeptical, boring — are the ones who will still be around.

If you keep your discipline, you won’t be the smartest guy in the room.

You’ll be the one still solvent when the room empties.

That’s the only win that matters.

If you want, next we can:

Tear apart the “guaranteed return” idea mathematically

Or formalize a regime-aware scaling rule for your system

Or design a checklist to instantly classify forum claims as noise vs signal


Your move.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:20pm On Dec 24, 2025
awesomeJ:
Which is why you can't replicate it. Cos you assume what's not.
I already have something similar, though with a lot of checks. It trades a maximum of 10 stocks and rebalances every month. It’s up 35%, even though I started just three months ago. I’m currently testing it with ₦3 million. That said, I know it’s probably just riding the good times we’re in.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:07pm On Dec 24, 2025
awesomeJ:
You do realize that you don't have to give an explanation to something you have no idea about right??


Maybe it's better you go back to believing the numbers aren't real 😁😁
It’s not an explanation; it’s a guess. That’s how I would trade the market, but it’s high risk and can give back all the profits, and more, if it gets out of control. I don’t think there’s any magic in all this.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:52pm On Dec 24, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
OK I get the game
You try to win more.
Do you see yourself taking the kind of risk you do on some trades if your fund is in billions.
Or you become more selective on stocks u buy to mitigate any south movement in a day
Like I did with insurance stocks. I through in 2.or 3 million in some but cannot put 20 or 30 million in those particular stocks
He probably buys all the liquid, high-cap stocks and then hopes that, on average, the winners will balance out the losers. Over the last one or two years, that would have been profitable. When the market starts correcting, we’ll see how it goes on average, lol.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:49pm On Dec 24, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
At what point do u withdraw profit. And what happens the day u make loss too
If e float him money fund, you need to invest ooo. Na our fellow NSEMPA be that ooo, e don show plenty evidence say money dey come out.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:31pm On Dec 24, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Omo you dey trade with 16Billions
When you are big you are large
I don’t even understand this system. It must be very complex, I don’t see how a ₦16 million turnover translates to 0.1% of the market.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:29pm On Dec 24, 2025
awesomeJ:
It wasn't a stock.
It was the market.

I trade the broad market.

About 0.1% of all trades.
So you trade every stock? Because I’m not aware of the ASI being traded.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:27pm On Dec 24, 2025
awesomeJ:
With time.
In a few years.
If I get SEC approval, I'll open a fund that pays a fixed monthly, quarterly or annual returns to holders.

Could be 3% per month, 10% per quarter or 40% p.a guaranteed.


I'm already running the experiment with facilities priced at up to 193% p.a, and so far it's been smooth.
Ok, no forget to announce am here when you launch the fund. Some of us dey root for you 😂. God spead.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:19pm On Dec 24, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
No vex but how is that a problem. He used 4 yrs to achieve that height
I remember someone here who said he made 30 million within a year with equally small cash.The guy later said he has gone into electronics business. I did equally make good paper profit when sugar and onado did #80 and above. I blocked u at a time because of a reason not small matters..lol.
Okay, but wetin wrong with wetin I tell am? I just talk say if e fit show say e dey consistently do 100 times, I go prostrate give am and call am Baba join. Anything dey there?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:10pm On Dec 24, 2025
awesomeJ:
I'm waiting for brokers to upload trades.
So my guy, you suppose open trade fund make we wey be NSEMPA gamblers and traders follow dey enjoy as you dey crack market so. No dey chop alone ooo 😂.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:04pm On Dec 24, 2025
awesomeJ:
Whether the claims are true or false, how does it impact your portfolio?

What exactly is your grouse??

You need to outgrow envy, otherwise you will never have joy.


If your neighbor buys a private jet now, you will either start thinking it's not his own or start wishing it crashed.

Bia, that's a shade of witchcraft o if you don't know.
Teach me work, Baba number 2. How many million enter this time? Make we follow you dey chop nah 😂.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:01pm On Dec 24, 2025
Mankind2024:
Thank you for your comment, brother.
First, let me clarify: I have never once called myself the "biggest master" of the game or anything close to that. In my article, I openly described myself as a boring investor—one who simply buys quality businesses and holds through thick and thin, inspired by Buffett, Munger, and the psychology of grit. No claims of superiority, just sharing a real journey to encourage others.

My posts are meant to motivate new and discerning investors—those who are patient, disciplined, and focused on long-term compounding—not the quick, smart traders who thrive on volatility and frequent moves (no shade; that's a valid style, and it seems to suit you well with your UCAP wins—congrats on those!).

I'm not here to prove anything or seek titles. My goal is generational wealth: planting seeds today that my children and grandchildren can harvest tomorrow. That's a different horizon from shorter-term ambitions, and both can coexist respectfully.

No need for prostration or "Baba" calls—I'm just a fellow traveler on this marathon. Keep winning your way, and I'll keep sharing quietly to inspire those who need it.

Stay blessed, and merry Christmas! 🚀
You be Baba, haaaa! ₦300k to ₦17 million no be here oooo. You too much. Happy Xmas.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:49pm On Dec 24, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
Nawa oh.i didn't see whr he claimed master in his post.Show all your trade abi should your portfolio. Which he has shown in the past.What am I missing in this post.
Abi you won ban me again? Make i dey talk small small ooo.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:47pm On Dec 24, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
Nawa oh.i didn't see whr he claimed master in his post.Show all your trade abi should your portfolio. Which he has shown in the past.What am I missing in this post.
So you no see as e dey show all him stocks wey do times 100? You no see NCR wey from ₦170k enter millions? Another ₦300k don turn ₦17 million, abi you no dey see am?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:34pm On Dec 24, 2025
Mankind2024:
The Quiet Triumph: How a "Boring" Investment in Transcorp Hotels Turned N325,000 into Over N17 Million or 5,130% ROI.

In the fast-paced world of stock trading, where algorithms flash across screens and traders chase the next hot tip, there exists a quieter path to wealth—one paved with patience, discipline, and unyielding grit. This is the story of one such journey, inspired by the legends of value investing and the profound insights of behavioral psychology.

Back in 2021, amid the uncertainties of a post-pandemic world, I made a simple decision: I purchased 100,000 shares of Transcorp Hotels Plc (TRANSCOHOT) at total cost of N3.25 per share. That modest investment totaled just N325,000 (Inclusive of Transaction cost) a seed planted in fertile ground.

Transcorp Hotels, the hospitality arm of the Transnational Corporation of Nigeria Plc, owns iconic properties like the Transcorp Hilton Abuja, a five-star landmark in the heart of Nigeria's capital, known for its luxurious accommodations, world-class conferencing facilities, and serene gardens.

I wasn't chasing excitement. I describe myself as a "boring" investor—one who evolves steadily, from "smart" strategies to a bridge of consistent, long-term holding. My inspiration came from the timeless wisdom of Warren Buffett and the late Charlie Munger, whose partnership at Berkshire Hathaway demonstrated that extraordinary wealth often comes from ordinary, disciplined.

Their philosophy was enriched for me by the work of Caroline Miller on behavioral psychology. She showed how human endeavors—investing included—are won not by fleeting intelligence or complex formulas, but by authentic grit: the ability to persevere through noise, volatility, and doubt.

Studies and real-world evidence back this up. "Smart" investors, armed with algorithms and quick triggers, often switch strategies at the first sign of market turbulence, eroding gains through fees, taxes, and poor timing. Boring investors, however, stay the course. They ignore the daily chatter, the trolls, the bullies urging "sell now" or "buy this hot stock." They embody patience in a volatile world.

Fast forward to today, December 24 2025. That small seed has blossomed into a giant tree. With Transcorp Hotels shares trading around N170 per share—a remarkable rise fueled by strong post-pandemic recovery, operational excellence, and expanding hospitality assets—my holding is now valued at approximately N17 million.
This isn't luck. It's the compounded magic of time, discipline, and believing in a solid company's long-term potential. In Nigeria, where many workers' lifetime pensions might not reach such figures, this growth represents financial freedom earned quietly.

Wealth building is a marathon, not a sprint. In volatile markets like the NGX, where emotions run high, the secrets remain unchanged: patience and discipline.

To new investors reading this—perhaps in forums filled with noise—stay encouraged. Ignore the detractors. Plant your seeds wisely, water them with resolve, and watch them grow into forests.

This boring path? It's the one that often leads to the most beautiful destinations.
Show all your trades since inception. If all of them look like this, we will hail you as the biggest master. These one-off trades you’re showing don’t prove much; we all have stocks that skyrocketed. If I show you my UCAP on two different accounts, you’ll marvel, nothing special.

If you’re really the master you claim to be, stop trying so hard to prove it. Show all your trades, and I’ll prostrate for you and call you Baba. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 1:04pm On Dec 23, 2025
mikeapollo:
Na wa oo. Every man to his kettle.
Which ''bag'' First Bank get wey other stocks like Oando or Ellah no get?
I wish everybody in every stocks the best of luck
Let me approach Oando purely from a technical and participation-based perspective, setting fundamentals aside.

Price discovery primarily occurs within the tradable supply (float), as the majority of outstanding shares are held by long-term or strategic holders who rarely transact. For analytical purposes, I approximate the effective float at 25% of shares outstanding, which I believe is a reasonable proxy based on observed ownership stability over time.

Starting from the most recent trading session, I accumulated traded volume backward until cumulative volume exceeded this estimated float, marking one full participation cycle. This cycle began on 31-07-2024. Within this window, price ranged between a high of ₦98.4 and a low of ₦22.5.

Importantly, approximately 91.7% of all volume during this cycle occurred above ₦38. Only about 8.3% of the estimated float (float is roughly 3.1 billion shares) was transacted below that level. This suggests that the overwhelming majority of current participants have cost bases above ₦38 ( a lot of buyers are underwater).

Under unchanged conditions and assuming no intervention by large or strategic holders, this distribution implies that incremental downside pressure from existing participants should diminish as price moves lower. In that sense, downside risk from current levels appears structurally reduced relative to upside.

This analysis does not predict a bottom, nor does it imply immediate reversal. It simply characterizes the current inventory structure. Any accumulation or averaging decision should be contingent on clear evidence of demand returning, not on inventory exhaustion alone.

This is a numerical, participation-based observation, not a fundamental call.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:20pm On Dec 23, 2025
I no dey post chart again sha, but make I talk my point: during that period when GTCO dey go down from ₦40 to ₦20, Access dey actually do okay. Now na Access dey dance awilo.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:08pm On Dec 23, 2025
crownprince2017:
I believed all these things are imagination that can't be presented with certainty.

And it can be applied to any assets.

Its safe to say gt will hit 50 n presco 1k and also give the same reason you gave.
Lol, which part is imagination? And yes, it can happen to any stock, but some stocks are more prone to it when current news and events are unfavorable.

I attached the GTCO chart, look at the drop inside the box (ignore my poor drawing skills). It looks small now after the recovery and subsequent trend, but at the time many people here were complaining until whoever was selling had exhausted their supply.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:44am On Dec 23, 2025
crownprince2017:
When we talk of buyers and seller coming to marketplace, we make it look as if the seller especially is naive and can accept any price.


Is access a distress asset to warrant that type of expectation like yours.

Both buyers and sellers are rationale. If an asset is not a distress one, any price cannot go.

You are faulting someone view because you believed the person is invested in access but you that is not invested is also biased.

There is no difference in saying gtb can hit 50 because its a free market and presco can hit 1k.
If I talk plenty now, dem go say I too like argue. Do you know when the seller buy am? E fit be say the seller buy am for ₦5 or even below, and now e don see better opportunity where e need act fast. If e get plenty shares, my guy, to sell am e go gree for that ₦15 make e offload sharp so e fit capture that other opportunity wey dey wait am. If people wey suppose buy no show up nko? Na so price dey fall.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:36am On Dec 23, 2025
crownprince2017:
The message was not meant for u
A stock can have solid fundamentals and still see its price decline. If you know how to read charts, look at GTB about two years ago, it was falling sharply even though the fundamentals were fine. Most likely, a major holder was selling at the time. Once that selling pressure ended, GTB recovered within a few weeks.

So you can’t confidently say a certain price is impossible when you have no control over what other market participants may do. That’s where technical analysis is useful: it helps you observe what is actually happening in the market and form ideas about price behavior. Fundamentals tell you where price should be based on your valuation.

Even with your fundamentals, if you come and say price no fit fall pass here, then you and gambler na the same thing. And your eyes go clear if e happen. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:06am On Dec 23, 2025
nosa2:
Make I bend if access touch 19. This is not crypto where there is no earnings behind the asset. Based on Fundamentals it will be difficult for access to go lower than where it is for a sustained period
Lol, I can only guess that you’re invested in Access, that’s the only reason you can say two opposing things in the same post. You said ₦19 is impossible, yet later admitted that it’s possible but won’t last long. grin grin grin

Fundamentals are one thing; buyers’ and sellers’ opinions are another. Know the difference. In a free market, anything is possible. If many sellers come to the market and there aren’t enough buyers during that period, then even ₦15 is also possible.

It’s better to be at peace knowing the full range of outcomes than to suffer pain because of naïve optimism.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:30pm On Dec 21, 2025
HesInMe:
It would be nice if he had an informed opinion. The guy is known to post whatever ChatGPT spits out -- sometimes without relevant context or business intelligence (although, this time, I fear he's it's right).
Maybe it’s ChatGPT, maybe it’s me, it doesn’t change the substance of the points made in my post. We’re not here to compete, and this isn’t an exam where using tools is considered cheating. What matters are the reasons presented and what they translate to in your portfolio.

So, once again, it doesn’t matter what you think of me or the source of my post. As long as the reasoning is sound, that’s what should be addressed.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:24pm On Dec 21, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
Sorry to say this oh.It is what I have observed in your posts.You either quote a post to create arguments so that u try to see if u can win it
Then another time your post are like chameleon standard or double standard
All the valuation metrics you mentioned above why have u not been using it in the case of kpakus. You came for his post to justify ur stand on sugar q3 results..
Mr time will prove sugar results to be good by full yr.And sugar will go over #300 in 5 yrs because the backward integration will have materialised. For 2026 it will touch #100.
Bookmark this post.Then the 5 yrs projects can fail if Nigeria happens to thr farm or company
It really does not matter whether my post affected you emotionally or not, that was never the aim. My aim is to inform readers who might take the original post at face value without questioning it.

It is clear as day that Dangote Sugar is not antifragile, dominance notwithstanding. I made a direct comparison with BUA Foods to show that Dangote Sugar’s operational efficiency is nowhere near BUA’s. Need I remind you how easily Dangote Sugar slipped into negative equity, while BUA remained stable?
We also know Dangote’s long-standing preference for controlling the entire production chain, from raw materials to finished products. The fact that this was not achieved in sugar long ago should already tell you something: backward integration in sugar is either difficult, capital-intensive, or structurally unattractive. Now that the integration has finally begun, it will take time, likely more than five years, to meaningfully replace imports. I broke this down in detail in an earlier post.

So will sugar return to outstanding profitability? I don’t know, and neither does Shalom, who presented no quantitative evidence to support his conclusions.

Not every post is a fight. Learn to see views that don’t align with yours as alternative analyses, not personal attacks.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:19pm On Dec 21, 2025
Shalom428:
With a strong positive mindset, a lot of disappointment can actually lead to blessings. I was very disappointed when DangFood was put on hold because of DangRice not fully functionial but right now I'm beginning to see it as a blessing , especially having accumulating a lot of Nascon at 30 Naira.

Firstly the Rice market is a bit more saturated in Nigeria when compared to Salt and Sugar where Dangote clear has dominance. I believe DangRice will contribute very little to DangFood , Sugar ( when it's fully back ) and salt will carry most of the weight. Right now , I want Sugar and Salt to fly solo, especially with the proposed sugar : salt : rice percentage shares in the earlier published arrangements.

The sugar division of BUAFOODS was the primary revenue driver in the 9M 2025 result . The sugar division contributed 42% to the total revenue of 1.42 trillion in 9M 2025. Meanwhile the Rice division contributed just 6% of total BUAFOODS' revenue in the same period

With Financial cost in control and full implementation of the backward integration, I believe DS will do 300+ in the next 5 years. With controlling market share of over 70% , I believe DS only needs to put it's finances together, it's going to soar. If the sugar division of BUAFoods can deliver so much and DS with the most controlling share in the market, it's a no brainer that , Sugar can soar on it's only without Rice.

Salt is another company that I want to see fly solo. If the present momentum can be sustainable, I believe salt will only do 300+ in the next 5 year with a double digit dividends . Nascon supplies majority of the industries that uses salt in Nigeria , textile , chemical manufacturing, pharmaceutical, water treatment, cosmetics, oil and gas , mining etc

Mr. Chef salt is the only major competition for Dangote Salt and Mr Chef primarily produces cooking salt for domestic use , they don't carter for industries unlike Nascon. Nascon very much like DS controls the largest market share . Worthy of note , BUAFoods no dey produce salt.

Hand don dey pain me ... This is not a buy recommendation
This sounds confident, but a lot of it doesn’t hold up once you strip away the optimism.

Using BUA Foods’ sugar contribution to justify what Dangote Sugar Refinery “must” become is a weak comparison. Market share does not equal profitability. Revenue mix does not equal margins. Cost structure, finance costs, asset efficiency, FX exposure, and ROIC are what drive value, not dominance slogans. Without adjusting for these, the conclusion simply doesn’t follow.

Claims like “₦300+ in five years” for Dangote Sugar or NASCON Allied Industries are not analysis, they’re numbers thrown into the air. What earnings level supports that price? At what multiple? With what free cash flow and balance-sheet strength? None of that is addressed.

The biggest issue here is anchoring to price instead of cash flow. Accumulating at ₦30 and projecting ₦300 without walking through cash generation, capex, debt servicing, and dividend capacity is not investing, it’s hopeful extrapolation.

Bottom line: this is a narrative dressed up as conviction. Until earnings quality, free cash flow, and policy risk are explicitly priced in, this remains a good story, not a serious valuation case.
lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:19pm On Dec 17, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
Make kpakus finish PO. Na den una go understand what has been happening with its SP. Then we go know the true valuation based on market
Lol, what is happening with the SP? Check their total traded value over the last 20 days and divide it by 20. Do you really think they’re manipulating it with that kind of money? For something that isn’t even certain, would you bring over ₦3 billion to manipulate an unsure deal?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:13pm On Dec 17, 2025
pluto09:
Come and buy what we are selling grin grin

https://www.thecable.ng/ellah-lakes-the-final-window-to-invest-in-nigerias-integrated-agro-industrial-transformation/
You can see it as half full or half empty, depending on which side you’re on. I guess you’re on the pessimistic side, so let me engage you.

I think they are "close". The offer has been below its market value for quite a while, even throughout the initial offer period. That suggests the public is not as pessimistic; otherwise, the traded share price would have fallen below the ₦12.50 offer long ago, especially given that it has averaged about ₦172 million in daily turnover over the last 20 days.

That said, I also admit that raising ₦235 billion is not easy in the current climate.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:34pm On Dec 17, 2025
zendi:
I need urgent expo on the concluding Ellah Public Offer.

Is it now meeting, surpassing, or still missing the target?

Although will be grateful for the unofficial info, what I want to do with it will remain only known to the mallam and his kettle. cool
I don’t think they will fail. At this point, winning that PO is existential for Ellah. They must win it, even if it means taking loans to complete it. lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:30pm On Dec 17, 2025
Hahaha 😂 Loco don carry una Japaul money go stock him computer and electronics store, chai, wahala.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:26pm On Dec 17, 2025
Ginalex:
Be like say no be NGX go fund am na salary
Chai, see wahala. I don plan say I go throw party with all this NGX people dem money. grin cheesy

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