Ositadima1's Posts
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ppogba:This is partially incorrect. We saw clear signals in NCR, especially during the last rally. I mentioned it here when more than 60% of the outstanding shares traded in less than a week, long before the rally. At the time, I commented that it was possible the majority shareholder structure had changed hands. As with all situations involving incomplete information, we took a probabilistic stance. Then more confirming signs appeared, I entered the trade, and I exited with more than double my investment, if I recall correctly. I can’t speak for other stocks, but as far as NCR is concerned, we came, we saw, we conquered. |
Harddiskng:As a science student, you should also understand how this works. What Mr. Emma is saying about using loans to acquire stocks is plausible, even in Nigeria. Let me explain why, based on my limited understanding. You carry out a thorough valuation and identify a stock that is deeply undervalued,essentially at a giveaway price. But, you may not have the bulk of the required funds available as cash at that time, even though you have stable and reliable income sources that generate cash annually. The plan is to service and clear the loan using these independent income streams, not relying on the stock itself, within a maximum of two to three years. It is important to note that you do not hold the full loan for the entire two or three years; both the principal and the interest are gradually repaid over time. In this scenario, even if the stock price declines, perhaps because the broader market enters a bear phase, you can still service the loan comfortably. Price appreciation was never the primary source of repayment. At most, dividends from the stock may serve as a secondary support, not the core repayment plan. |
Sunrisepebble:Thank you. Bro. |
I asked Chatgpt to read the last few pages. ![]() You didn’t bring “a forum discussion”. You brought a live case study in late-cycle market psychology, ego inflation, and survivorship bias. I’m going to be blunt and structured. No vibes. No sides. --- 1. What this thread ACTUALLY is (not what people think it is) This is not: A serious debate about strategy A technical discussion about market microstructure A thoughtful argument about hedge funds or derivatives This is: A bull-market brag arena A status competition masquerading as investing discourse A classic Nigerian-market late-cycle signal environment Every character here is playing a role. --- 2. The characters and their real positions AwesomeJ This is the most dangerous character in the thread. Not because he’s stupid — he’s intelligent. That’s the problem. What he claims: Near-continuous profitability Less than 5% red days Rarely red weeks Manual trading, 100+ deals/day Strategy that “scales” to 1% of market volume Potential to guarantee ~40% returns via a fund Losses are “absorbed by more profits” What’s actually happening: He’s confusing recent realized P&L with strategy robustness He’s extrapolating liquidity regime + volatility expansion into permanence He’s mistaking high turnover momentum harvesting for structural edge He has no explicit loss boundary other than “profits absorb losses” (this is fatal) > “Losses are absorbed by more profits” is not risk management. It is post-hoc justification. That exact sentence appears in every blow-up memoir — from Ololo to LTCM to crypto prop desks. --- The guaranteed return talk This is the brightest red flag in the entire thread. Not because guarantees are theoretically impossible — but because: Anyone who truly understands tail risk never talks like this Guarantees require external capital buffers, not confidence “I know I can make 300% in one year” is pure regime blindness This isn’t hedge-fund thinking. This is casino bankroll thinking during a hot table. --- Mankind2024 This is a textbook long-only bull-market narrator. Not fraudulent. Not stupid. Just narratively dangerous. Key traits: Anchors success to patience, virtue, faith Attributes skepticism to envy Uses famous names as moral validation Ignores valuation because price validated him Mentally equates drawdown survival with risk control He is safe only because he is not leveraged. If leverage enters his world, this mindset becomes lethal. --- The elders (Agba, Pa Emma, etc.) They sound “old school” but they’re doing something critical: They are implicitly tail-risk aware, even if they can’t articulate it mathematically. They’ve seen: Margin wipeouts Liquidity disappear Brokers change rules overnight “Audio profits” evaporate Their skepticism is earned, not ignorance. --- 3. The biggest lie running through the thread > “If it keeps working, it must be real.” No. Markets allow long stretches of false validation. Especially when: Volatility is expanding Liquidity is abundant Directional drift exists Retail participation is rising Turnover is exploding This is exactly when fragile strategies look invincible. --- 4. Your own position (here’s where I challenge you) You are doing something right — and one thing dangerously wrong. What you’re doing right You explicitly acknowledge regime dependence You said clearly: “It’s probably riding good times” You cap exposure (10 stocks, monthly rebalance) You’re testing with non-ego capital That already puts you ahead of 90% of the thread. Your blind spot You are still engaging too much at the narrative layer. You’re debating what he does instead of isolating what must be true for it to survive. That’s the mistake. --- 5. Strip the noise → the ONLY questions that matter Forget screenshots. Forget banter. Forget hedge fund talk. Ask these, and everything else collapses: 1. What is the maximum single-day loss this strategy can produce? Not average. Not typical. Maximum. If it’s undefined → the strategy is incomplete. --- 2. What happens when: Bid-ask widens Partial fills dominate Volume drops 40% Correlation spikes to 1 If the answer is “profits absorb losses” → time bomb. --- 3. Is the edge: Structural (rule-based, invariant)? Or regime-dependent (volatility + liquidity)? Everything he says screams regime-dependent. --- 4. Does the strategy survive: A 6-month flat market? A grinding downtrend? Sudden 10–15% index shock? No anecdotes. Only mechanics. --- 6. The Ololo parallel is NOT an insult — it’s a warning People keep throwing Ololo’s name emotionally. Here’s the real lesson: > Ololo wasn’t wrong about direction. He was wrong about time and leverage interacting with liquidity. That’s it. Most blow-ups happen after years of being right. --- 7. What you should do next (precise plan) Step 1: Stop debating individuals They don’t matter. Step 2: Stress-test YOUR system explicitly against: 2008-style liquidity withdrawal 2020 gap-down open 2023 sideways churn If you can’t model those → don’t scale. --- Step 3: Define distance-to-ruin Not emotionally. Numerically. Worst case loss Recovery time Capital impairment threshold If ruin is possible → redesign. --- Step 4: Keep your capital boring Let other people pay tuition to the market. You don’t need to prove intelligence in public forums. --- 8. Final truth (no comfort here) This thread is a late-bull echo chamber. The loudest voices are the ones least prepared for the next regime. The quiet ones — cautious, skeptical, boring — are the ones who will still be around. If you keep your discipline, you won’t be the smartest guy in the room. You’ll be the one still solvent when the room empties. That’s the only win that matters. If you want, next we can: Tear apart the “guaranteed return” idea mathematically Or formalize a regime-aware scaling rule for your system Or design a checklist to instantly classify forum claims as noise vs signal Your move. |
awesomeJ:I already have something similar, though with a lot of checks. It trades a maximum of 10 stocks and rebalances every month. It’s up 35%, even though I started just three months ago. I’m currently testing it with ₦3 million. That said, I know it’s probably just riding the good times we’re in. |
awesomeJ:It’s not an explanation; it’s a guess. That’s how I would trade the market, but it’s high risk and can give back all the profits, and more, if it gets out of control. I don’t think there’s any magic in all this. |
Streetinvestor2:He probably buys all the liquid, high-cap stocks and then hopes that, on average, the winners will balance out the losers. Over the last one or two years, that would have been profitable. When the market starts correcting, we’ll see how it goes on average, lol. |
Streetinvestor2:If e float him money fund, you need to invest ooo. Na our fellow NSEMPA be that ooo, e don show plenty evidence say money dey come out. |
Agbalowomeri:I don’t even understand this system. It must be very complex, I don’t see how a ₦16 million turnover translates to 0.1% of the market. |
awesomeJ:So you trade every stock? Because I’m not aware of the ASI being traded. |
awesomeJ:Ok, no forget to announce am here when you launch the fund. Some of us dey root for you 😂. God spead. |
Streetinvestor2:Okay, but wetin wrong with wetin I tell am? I just talk say if e fit show say e dey consistently do 100 times, I go prostrate give am and call am Baba join. Anything dey there? |
awesomeJ:So my guy, you suppose open trade fund make we wey be NSEMPA gamblers and traders follow dey enjoy as you dey crack market so. No dey chop alone ooo 😂. |
awesomeJ:Teach me work, Baba number 2. How many million enter this time? Make we follow you dey chop nah 😂. |
Mankind2024:You be Baba, haaaa! ₦300k to ₦17 million no be here oooo. You too much. Happy Xmas. |
Streetinvestor2:Abi you won ban me again? Make i dey talk small small ooo. |
Streetinvestor2:So you no see as e dey show all him stocks wey do times 100? You no see NCR wey from ₦170k enter millions? Another ₦300k don turn ₦17 million, abi you no dey see am? |
Mankind2024:Show all your trades since inception. If all of them look like this, we will hail you as the biggest master. These one-off trades you’re showing don’t prove much; we all have stocks that skyrocketed. If I show you my UCAP on two different accounts, you’ll marvel, nothing special. If you’re really the master you claim to be, stop trying so hard to prove it. Show all your trades, and I’ll prostrate for you and call you Baba. ![]() |
mikeapollo:Let me approach Oando purely from a technical and participation-based perspective, setting fundamentals aside. Price discovery primarily occurs within the tradable supply (float), as the majority of outstanding shares are held by long-term or strategic holders who rarely transact. For analytical purposes, I approximate the effective float at 25% of shares outstanding, which I believe is a reasonable proxy based on observed ownership stability over time. Starting from the most recent trading session, I accumulated traded volume backward until cumulative volume exceeded this estimated float, marking one full participation cycle. This cycle began on 31-07-2024. Within this window, price ranged between a high of ₦98.4 and a low of ₦22.5. Importantly, approximately 91.7% of all volume during this cycle occurred above ₦38. Only about 8.3% of the estimated float (float is roughly 3.1 billion shares) was transacted below that level. This suggests that the overwhelming majority of current participants have cost bases above ₦38 ( a lot of buyers are underwater). Under unchanged conditions and assuming no intervention by large or strategic holders, this distribution implies that incremental downside pressure from existing participants should diminish as price moves lower. In that sense, downside risk from current levels appears structurally reduced relative to upside. This analysis does not predict a bottom, nor does it imply immediate reversal. It simply characterizes the current inventory structure. Any accumulation or averaging decision should be contingent on clear evidence of demand returning, not on inventory exhaustion alone. This is a numerical, participation-based observation, not a fundamental call. |
I no dey post chart again sha, but make I talk my point: during that period when GTCO dey go down from ₦40 to ₦20, Access dey actually do okay. Now na Access dey dance awilo.
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crownprince2017:Lol, which part is imagination? And yes, it can happen to any stock, but some stocks are more prone to it when current news and events are unfavorable. I attached the GTCO chart, look at the drop inside the box (ignore my poor drawing skills). It looks small now after the recovery and subsequent trend, but at the time many people here were complaining until whoever was selling had exhausted their supply.
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crownprince2017:If I talk plenty now, dem go say I too like argue. Do you know when the seller buy am? E fit be say the seller buy am for ₦5 or even below, and now e don see better opportunity where e need act fast. If e get plenty shares, my guy, to sell am e go gree for that ₦15 make e offload sharp so e fit capture that other opportunity wey dey wait am. If people wey suppose buy no show up nko? Na so price dey fall. |
crownprince2017:A stock can have solid fundamentals and still see its price decline. If you know how to read charts, look at GTB about two years ago, it was falling sharply even though the fundamentals were fine. Most likely, a major holder was selling at the time. Once that selling pressure ended, GTB recovered within a few weeks. So you can’t confidently say a certain price is impossible when you have no control over what other market participants may do. That’s where technical analysis is useful: it helps you observe what is actually happening in the market and form ideas about price behavior. Fundamentals tell you where price should be based on your valuation. Even with your fundamentals, if you come and say price no fit fall pass here, then you and gambler na the same thing. And your eyes go clear if e happen. ![]() |
nosa2:Lol, I can only guess that you’re invested in Access, that’s the only reason you can say two opposing things in the same post. You said ₦19 is impossible, yet later admitted that it’s possible but won’t last long. ![]() Fundamentals are one thing; buyers’ and sellers’ opinions are another. Know the difference. In a free market, anything is possible. If many sellers come to the market and there aren’t enough buyers during that period, then even ₦15 is also possible. It’s better to be at peace knowing the full range of outcomes than to suffer pain because of naïve optimism. |
HesInMe:Maybe it’s ChatGPT, maybe it’s me, it doesn’t change the substance of the points made in my post. We’re not here to compete, and this isn’t an exam where using tools is considered cheating. What matters are the reasons presented and what they translate to in your portfolio. So, once again, it doesn’t matter what you think of me or the source of my post. As long as the reasoning is sound, that’s what should be addressed. |
Streetinvestor2:It really does not matter whether my post affected you emotionally or not, that was never the aim. My aim is to inform readers who might take the original post at face value without questioning it. It is clear as day that Dangote Sugar is not antifragile, dominance notwithstanding. I made a direct comparison with BUA Foods to show that Dangote Sugar’s operational efficiency is nowhere near BUA’s. Need I remind you how easily Dangote Sugar slipped into negative equity, while BUA remained stable? We also know Dangote’s long-standing preference for controlling the entire production chain, from raw materials to finished products. The fact that this was not achieved in sugar long ago should already tell you something: backward integration in sugar is either difficult, capital-intensive, or structurally unattractive. Now that the integration has finally begun, it will take time, likely more than five years, to meaningfully replace imports. I broke this down in detail in an earlier post. So will sugar return to outstanding profitability? I don’t know, and neither does Shalom, who presented no quantitative evidence to support his conclusions. Not every post is a fight. Learn to see views that don’t align with yours as alternative analyses, not personal attacks. |
Shalom428:This sounds confident, but a lot of it doesn’t hold up once you strip away the optimism. Using BUA Foods’ sugar contribution to justify what Dangote Sugar Refinery “must” become is a weak comparison. Market share does not equal profitability. Revenue mix does not equal margins. Cost structure, finance costs, asset efficiency, FX exposure, and ROIC are what drive value, not dominance slogans. Without adjusting for these, the conclusion simply doesn’t follow. Claims like “₦300+ in five years” for Dangote Sugar or NASCON Allied Industries are not analysis, they’re numbers thrown into the air. What earnings level supports that price? At what multiple? With what free cash flow and balance-sheet strength? None of that is addressed. The biggest issue here is anchoring to price instead of cash flow. Accumulating at ₦30 and projecting ₦300 without walking through cash generation, capex, debt servicing, and dividend capacity is not investing, it’s hopeful extrapolation. Bottom line: this is a narrative dressed up as conviction. Until earnings quality, free cash flow, and policy risk are explicitly priced in, this remains a good story, not a serious valuation case. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:Lol, what is happening with the SP? Check their total traded value over the last 20 days and divide it by 20. Do you really think they’re manipulating it with that kind of money? For something that isn’t even certain, would you bring over ₦3 billion to manipulate an unsure deal? |
pluto09:You can see it as half full or half empty, depending on which side you’re on. I guess you’re on the pessimistic side, so let me engage you. I think they are "close". The offer has been below its market value for quite a while, even throughout the initial offer period. That suggests the public is not as pessimistic; otherwise, the traded share price would have fallen below the ₦12.50 offer long ago, especially given that it has averaged about ₦172 million in daily turnover over the last 20 days. That said, I also admit that raising ₦235 billion is not easy in the current climate. |
zendi:I don’t think they will fail. At this point, winning that PO is existential for Ellah. They must win it, even if it means taking loans to complete it. ![]() |
Hahaha 😂 Loco don carry una Japaul money go stock him computer and electronics store, chai, wahala. |
Ginalex:Chai, see wahala. I don plan say I go throw party with all this NGX people dem money. ![]() |
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