₦airaland Forum

HesInMe:
So if your score hits 90, you expect an imminent market collapse, say 20+% in a week? And if this doesn't happen, you'll know it's a dud?

No, it doesn’t work like that. I think I’ve already talked to you about the probabilistic nature of the market, nobody can time it accurately (with consistency), not me and not you. What we can do is use tools to indicate when the risk of a market crash is elevated.

I believe it’s the same with your fundamental analysis or whatever method you trust. It can inform you, but it is never be a crystal ball. But if you claim otherwise, then I challenge you to make at least five separate predictions about any stock or the ASI with specific time constraints, and if even one fails to materialize within the allotted time, then we can say your method is a dud. Are you game?

So my model is just a tool, not a crystal ball. It’s based on academic and well-known concepts. Having a tool is always better than having none. I also know implementation can sometimes be wrong, which is why I continue to monitor, modify, and correct when necessary. It’s not a magic formula, there is no magic formula anywhere.

HesInMe:
Honest question (don't get defensive): How will you know that this score is useful?

Lol, if it gets to the 90s, I’ll close out my trading stocks and let only my investment stocks run, the dividend-paying ones I’ve held for a long time. I might even consider closing some of those too.

So in a nutshell, it tells me how bad things have become compared to last 6 months. Is that explanation good enough for you?

Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.

Decline in aggregate market trading activity was the major driver.

Streetinvestor2:
I don't even think it was easy for uba to raise 150 billion.
which they have not announced the outcome till now
Na one yeye kpakus dey talk of 250 billion with that kind tie and head office

Is it just the tie? What about the suit? But maybe it’s just the style, sha. Rich people like looking unique, they’re tired of the normal stuff. Lol

emmanuelewumi:
N250 billion na your mate.

They should have asked for N20 billion, manage it well, grow the business, be profitable, pay dividends and ask for another money after 2 to 3 years

Are you sure Presco completed theirs? I know plenty of people who didn’t take up their rights, lol.

iskalamong:
I will digress a little.

I think one has to invest responsibly when it comes to investments that are Marked to Market (MTM).

This is because it affects the investor or traders psychology. In my opinion, it may be the reason many shy away from investing in risky assets like stocks.

Unlike investments in illiquid assets like real estate or properties. The daily prices are not published.

You simply buy, hold, revalue after a reasonable time and then sell. No daily MTM pressure.

Cheers

Iskalamong!

.

.

I get your point, but you’re not seeing where I’m coming from. According to him, he invested in 2021, and by 2023 he himself showed us that his stock portfolio was over ₦300 million, the posts are here, I’m not guessing. If his convictions were as strong as he’s claiming today, he would have increased that position to at least ₦1 million. In 2023 the stock was still relatively cheap. He could have sold stocks that had peaked or added more from dividends.

Now he comes here claiming he ‘always knew’ it would turn out like this, after the fact. What I’m saying is: the reason he didn’t add to the position all this while is because, consciously or unconsciously, he was weighting it down due to perceived risk compared to his other holdings.

crownprince2017:
In his words, "I will buy banking stocks and keep it forever. Access with High dividend yield is better than any other companies therefore, access can never get to 20."

Educo 2025

Lol, thank you. I knew I read it somewhere but I was trying to find it. Now he’s saying 15 is impossible, and he even quoted me directly. So if Access ever gets to 15 and we have a similar conversation, it will be easy for me, lol.

yMcy56:
Is Agba still waiting for GTCO?
At what price if I may ask...

;

Mankind2024:
@Ositadima and the Thomases
I understand say e fit pain you, but calling my NCR run “pure luck” no dey accurate at all.
I get multiple stocks wey I put less than ₦2 million years ago wey don grow quietly reach ₦35 million–₦50 million today through compounding. Some of una even sabi one or two of those stocks. I no dey shout them every day because the goal no be to dey drag chest.
Is it NYSE, where the market has turned some $4,000 investment to $18k in my portfolio?
Humility is one of the virtues of successful investors, time is our best friend.
Volatility and inactivity is the price we pay for compound interest.
I only bring NCR, a nano fraction of my portfolio come board today make e motivate people wey still dey the game — no cap, no lamba, no exaggeration, just the real numbers. Ironically, I remember say you (or person wey get similar handle) sell your own for sub-₦30 at the command of your fast fingers because fear catch you that time. Nothing personal, e just dey show say wetin one person call “luck” na another person’s patience and conviction.
My philosophy dey simple: I stay strictly inside my circle of competence and within the cash I fit comot for mouth. I do not borrow to invest.
Once company no dey pay dividend, I no dey average up or down — I just siddon dey look. Time, more than anything, dey always resurrect good business wey dey face temporary headwind.
I no get strength to turn this place to ego-wrestling arena again. Make we allow the thread rest.
You go still see more real, motivating, no-cap, no lamba stories from me in the coming days. If e pain you, you fit mute me — no wahala. But the results no go mute themselves.
Remain blessed.

My friend, I never said it’s pure luck, go and read my post again. I replied to the guy who said it was pure luck and told him it wasn’t. You had an idea in mind when you were buying it, but it wasn’t as strong as you’re trying to make it seem now. If your conviction was that strong, you would have invested more. These new posts are just you fishing for likes after the fact, simple.

EDUECO:
It was Peterichy that made a statement that ACCESSCORP will get to ₦15.

And I gave him a reply .

Okay nah, 15 is still possible.

EDUECO:
These are Agbalowomeri's comments!

So the one I posted isn’t real? Maybe it’s Photoshop.

And this is why you should never take what people say here seriously. This guy said he would sell everything and buy. My guy, did you finally buy it?

EDUECO:
It was around ₦12 to ₦15 he said the price will fall to.

Ok nah.

EDUECO:
When did ACCESSCORP get to ₦30 this year or last year?

Or abi you turn become APC member?

Okay, I think the highest was 28, but the fact remains that when Agba mentioned 20, you pushed back against it. Yes or no? Can you repeat what you said?

HesInMe:
You're making my point. It's not a serious investment strategy. It's like buying a lottery ticket: If it works, awesome; if not, whatever.

My friend, all forms of investment are like playing the lottery, especially stocks. It’s all probabilistic. You can’t tell me with 100% certainty where a stock will be tomorrow. Too many things can go right or wrong. That’s the whole point of diversification and weighting.

I’m not claiming to be smart; I didn’t invent these ideas. I learned them from different sources. You diversify because when some stocks go down, others go up, reducing volatility and overall risk. You assign weights because, based on the information you have, some stocks carry more risk and others less. Anyone who understands risk does this, even Buffett.

All stocks carry risk, even when you have conviction. When Access was in the 30s, some said 20 wasn't possible; many of you argued that it couldn’t happen, yet it did. DangSugar was a darling in 2022/2023, and people expected ₦250 by now, then Tinubu struck, and today it’s just coping.

Learn this from me: stocks are almost like a Ponzi, you only win when someone is willing to buy from you at a higher price.

Lol, if you follow this thread daily like I’ve done for the past five years, you can easily estimate the minimum size of some people’s portfolios. Some of you like to spill the beans regularly, which I think is unnecessary. I understand why you do it, you want your opinion to carry weight, right?

But saying, ‘My portfolio is X millions, so my view shouldn’t be contested,’ is a logical fallacy. It’s simply an appeal to authority, lol.

HesInMe:
They also don't talk about their losses (and opportunity costs). That's the problem.

Those factors affect everyone. Even if you track the index, there are periods when the index is stagnant or falling because the heavyweights aren’t performing, while smaller stocks may be doing much better, but their low weight means the index doesn’t reflect it.

We’ve discussed risk management here before: diversification and weighting your investments based on your own internal assessment of risk. You can see that Mankind was managing risk by not adding to the position, effectively keeping its weight in his portfolio low, he was unconsciously mitigating risk.

From what I’ve read here, his entire portfolio was already over ₦300 million as far back as 2023, yet he kept only ₦170k in that stock (NCR) and never added to it. That’s pure gut-level risk management, regardless of the story he’s now telling for cheap likes, lol.

HesInMe:
It's mostly dumb luck.

All these feel-good, find-the-needle-in-the-haystack investment stories don't acknowledge how poorly the strategy works on the average -- those stocks where the strategy fails, and fails badly. Most investors are better off just buying the index.

Yeah, some people tell stories to feel good, I do that sometimes. But you can still make outsized returns by using strategies and models; that’s a fact. The market has hidden patterns you can exploit to make money. So yes, on average, people do make money. I’m living proof, and there are many others here who don’t talk about their wins at all, so you never hear about them.

pluto09:
It is the kind of narrative that makes people believe they can just buy any stock and make money once they can wait it out .
It is nothing but pure luck

I don’t think it’s 100% luck, but he’s clearly exaggerating in his post. The points he made are solid, just not strong enough, which is why he hasn’t been adding to his position all this while. It’s like having a strong feeling that Manchester City will beat Fulham based on certain indicators, but you’re still not fully sure, so you bet responsibly, lol.

Agbalowomeri:
You get time o
A stock price obviously being manipulated
What about JULI

NCR showed signs of activity. Some of us spotted it and posted it here. I even convinced at least one person to buy; he made around 20% but didn’t wait. I made over a hundred percent, and I’m out. I exited because of liquidity concerns, if it turns, getting your money and profits out becomes difficult. Look at Betaglass; I know how much of my gains I lost while trying to exit. If your TA was solid, you should have seen it too. Below was my post on October 1.

ositadima1:
Did anybody notice that NCR traded more than 60% of its outstanding shares yesterday alone? It looks like their foreign majority holder exited.

mikeapollo:
NCR is N60+!
This NGX can be crazy!
And some people are writing off some stocks?
Never say never!

I sold at 54.6; I bought at 17.5, and I’ve moved on to a new obsession. Good luck to those still riding it, it might get to 100.

One of my trend-following models is signalling a buy on Cadbury. I’m not sure whether to trust it, will it give me January survival money after a detty December? Lol. Some people are even saying the NGX is disgraced.

Market Fragility Score for the Week Ended.

ositadima1:
Market Fragility Model - Simple Explanation

Think of market fragility like checking if a bridge is about to collapse. You don't wait for it to fall, you look for warning signs like cracks, rust, and stress points.

The Big Idea

This model gives the stock market a "health score" from 0-100:
- 0-20: Healthy and strong
- 50+: Getting shaky
- 80+: Danger zone - small problems could cause big crashes

The 5 Warning Signs We Check

1. Liquidity Collapse (40% weight)
Simple idea: Is money drying up in the market?

How it works: Compare how much trading happened in the last month vs. the previous 6 months.

Example:
- Last 6 months: #100 billion traded per month
- Last month: Only #50 billion traded
- Red flag! Money is leaving the market

Why it matters: When liquidity dries up, prices can crash suddenly because there aren't enough buyers.

---

2. Concentration Risk (20% weight)
Simple idea: Are too few stocks dominating all the trading?

How it works: Check if the top 5 stocks account for most of the market's trading volume.

Example:
- Market has 100 stocks
- But MTN, Dangote, and 3 others account for 80% of all trading
- Red flag! Market is too concentrated

Why it matters: If something bad happens to those few big stocks, the entire market suffers.

---

3. Price-Volume Divergence (20% weight)
Simple idea: Prices going up but trading volume going down? Suspicious!

How it works: Compare stock price changes vs. trading volume changes.

Example:
- Stock price up 20% in 2 months
- But trading volume down 30%
- Red flag! Price increase isn't backed by real demand

Why it matters: Price rises without volume support are "fake rallies" that easily reverse.

---

4. Breadth Collapse (12% weight)
Simple idea: Are most stocks going down while only a few go up?

How it works: Count how many stocks are rising vs. falling, weighted by their trading activity.

Example:
- 80 out of 100 stocks are falling
- Only 20 are rising
- Red flag! Market rally is narrow and weak

Why it matters: Healthy markets have most stocks participating. If only a few carry the market, it's fragile.

---

5. Turnover Volatility Shock (8% weight)
Simple idea: Is trading becoming unpredictable and erratic?

How it works: Compare recent trading volume swings to historical patterns.

Example:
- Normally, daily turnover varies by ±#5 billion
- Recently, it swings by ±#30 billion
- Red flag! Panic buying/selling patterns emerging

Why it matters: Wild swings in trading activity signal nervous, unstable markets.

---

Bonus: Volatility Regime
Simple idea: Are price swings getting bigger?

How it works: Compare recent price volatility to long-term averages.

Example:
- Stocks normally move ±2% per day
- Recently moving ±5% per day
- Red flag! Market is getting jittery

Note: This is tracked for information but doesn't affect the main score.

---

Real-World Analogy

Imagine you run a fish market:

1. Liquidity: Fewer customers showing up to buy fish → **market dying**

2. Concentration: Only 3 out of 50 stalls getting all the customers → **unhealthy**

3. Divergence: Fish prices rising but nobody's buying → **artificial prices**

4. Breadth: Only lobster selling well, everything else rotting → **narrow market**

5. Turnover Volatility: Some days empty, some days mob rushes → **unstable**

If you see all 5 problems at once, your market is about to collapse!
---

How the Score is Calculated

Each component gets a 0-1 value:
- 0 = healthy
- 1 = maximum fragility

Then we multiply by weights and add them up:

```
Score = (Liquidity × 40%) + (Concentration × 20%) + (Divergence × 20%) +
(Breadth × 12%) + (Turnover Vol × 8%)
```

Then multiply by 100 to get 0-100 scale.

---

Why These Weights?

For Nigerian/emerging markets:
- Liquidity (40%): Biggest risk - thin markets can freeze up quickly
- Concentration (20%): Few stocks dominate these markets
- Divergence (20%): Price manipulation more common in emerging markets
- Breadth (12%): Important but secondary
- Turnover Vol (8%): Least critical but still informative

---

What To Do With the Score

0-35: Relax, market is stable
35-50: Pay attention, some cracks appearing
50-65: Be cautious, reduce risk exposure
65-80: Warning! Prepare for volatility
80-100: Danger! High chance of sharp drops

---

The Key Insight

Markets don't crash randomly. They show stress signals first. This model catches those signals before the crash happens, like a smoke detector before the fire.

unite4real:
the original was 13,545 hectares and not 1,400. so excision of 20 is just a tiny 0.14% and this 20 hectares are already in an undeveloped land as they have been aware of this oil well long time ago

Okay, thank you. Let me adjust my message.

SonofElElyonRet:
Hypothetically speaking, you are saying Nigeria should've lost 2 oil wells if the story had been true Happy to know it ain't but full compensation, allocation of another suitable/similar parcel of land and enough time to harvest and relocate is what would've been fair . Not a country foregoing 2 oil wells!

The initial message wasn’t entirely off. Based on the Edo State government’s position, instead of the original 13,545 hectares, they are now focused only on the 20 hectares where the two wells are located. As they correctly stated, the matter is beyond their authority, it falls under federal jurisdiction.

emmanuelewumi:
Turnover is different from his trading capital.


You can have a monthly turnover of N1 billion and the trading capital is less than N200 million.


Leverage amplifies the investment outcome, it might be positive or negative.

Dangote sef still uses leverage, so it has nothing to do with your turnover or capital.

The most important thing is to be careful and disciplined when using leverage

Lol, so now trading is acceptable in your book? We had long arguments on this subject, and you insisted that fundamental investing was the only way. I’m glad to see your views have evolved.

Streetinvestor2:
You can go try harder with another person. Sorry it doesn't work for many Biafrans. You did not add the number of ammunition that was recovered in his family home after the exercise that claimed life of family members .
You didn't say the number of innocent igbo youths that whr killed during that period by the military. And the same military now sit to dine with the once who right in thr face come with all kind of sophisticated weapons. I know when gen z is talking on such issues
Who is restricting the rights of the ones with iPhone on social media showing how they kill innocent people without hiding thr identity.
Guy go park one side

The unfortunate truth is that both parties were wrong. The government went too far with the military raid, but Nnamdi Kanu was also culpable. He kept doing the very things his bail conditions forbade, fully aware that the government was unpredictable, he played straight into their hands.

You can’t be making serious threats when you have nothing to fight with. Look at people like Tompolo and others, they went full gangster with backing. Kanu had no such structure, not even militants at the time. A clever person would have exercised caution.

You can’t refuse to ‘play the game’ when you’re already inside it; you break out first, then create your own game.

Streetinvestor2:
I wanted to ignore u because u have a different side from the side I now choose to belong because of the injustices I have seen.All my life.i was hoping it will stop but it is never going to stop.So I will gladly go with Biafra.
I am street for many reasons. I do go out on sit at home.The sit at home by IPOB was any day Kanu has court appearance to show solidarity. The Monday regular was never his doing
He did not jump bail as he was appearing in court before the military attacked his home to kill him .The records are thr to verify
We called for his release because we saw the truth happening in all SE using him as cover
We had the genuine ones working for the purpose. Then many criminal elements surfaced like
The state actors doing killings
The kidnapping and robbery group
The ritual and organ harvesting group
They whr all doing evil hiding under the genuine struggle. I witnessed some of this evil happening life.We shouted for government to release him so he can continue his court case so to be able to eliminate this evil ones who always claimed it was order from Kanu. The state actors who whr equally involved needed the cover so they did everything to stop it
The recent sentence is to create another round of such insecurity for 2027 elections .When thr is wide range of insecurity in a region u can use it as excuse to surprise the voters turn out in the region mostly if u see it won't support u agenda.
I remain street credible

1. Bail (2017)
He was granted bail with strict conditions.

2. Bail Conditions
Restrictions included:
* no interviews
* no rallies or mass gatherings
* no inflammatory statements
* no association with groups deemed security threats
These were intended to limit his influence pending trial.

3. Violations
He deliberately violated the conditions by:
* holding rallies
* giving radio broadcasts
The violations were open and intentional.

4. Escalation of Rhetoric
His language shifted to proto-insurgency, this escalation alarmed federal authorities.

5. Operation Python Dance II
The operation was launched not merely for bail breaches but because intelligence suggested IPOB was shifting from agitation → mobilisation → potential militarisation.
The bail violations served as a convenient pretext.

6. Military Raid
The raid on his home was a deliberate attempt to disrupt and decapitate the movement , a political–military action, not a judicial one.

7. Flight
He fled after the raid and resurfaced in the UK.
Legally, this constitutes bail jumping, regardless of the circumstances.

Streetinvestor2:
No he didn't do me anything. It is possible he did to ur family. Which u have not told me how it happened. Ngx will only end up disgraced in a disgraced country. It will continue red till reality will set.And many igbos has spoken out he didn't do them anything. And if u don't agree. You can visit the 5 SE states and verify.

Let me ask u something. Did u see whr ur IG of police was negotiating with someone who killed his assistant commissioner. He came to the negotiating ground wearing his uniform/gun of the officer he killed. He even gave conditions that the police must not come to the place of negotiations on uniform. That is definition of doing something .

I am waiting to see how anyone can rewrite economic theories like this one
A disgraced nation will begot a disgraced economy which will begot a disgraced ngx.
It is thr in economic text books Na watin dey teach me for sch and street

But Nnamdi Kanu refused to defend himself, insisting that there was no case against him. He never challenged the evidence presented, maintaining that position until the end, almost as if he believed he was above the law. After his arrest in 2021 (in a manner many describe as questionable), IPOB initiated the sit-at-home orders, which later turned violent.
Yes, his arrest may be debatable, but he was already on bail, which he jumped to travel to the UK before the incident.

He is the acknowledged leader of IPOB, and during those sit-at-home periods, many people were killed. You can argue that it wasn’t IPOB directly, that the movement was hijacked, but IPOB still enforced sit-at-home despite the harm it caused. So saying he ‘did nothing to nobody’ is simply not correct. His words incited violence, and people lost their lives. I can cite many cases, not even involving the military or police, but ordinary civilians.

He will probably be released eventually. He will appeal, and if he continues with this ‘no-case’ and postponement strategy, the process could drag on for another four to five years. If the government in power at that time is not friendly to the South, he may end up back in jail, after which he will likely appeal to the ECOWAS Court and possibly get a favourable ruling. All of this, for what?

We’ve seen IPOB operate through intimidation and violence. I would rather remain with Nigeria, as bad as it is, than align with what I’ve seen IPOB do.

Anyway, this isn’t the place to go into all that.

HesInMe:
Market price-to-earnings ratios don't predict the likelihood of a market crash at all?

You're rewriting all of modern finance. If you're right, you'll earn the Nobel in economics. Don't bet on it.

Everything I wrote above is verifiable. I’m done derailing.

HesInMe:
No need for the drama. I said it was a gut check, not a PhD thesis. It's more useful than you'd think. Let's think through this. Define the "risk" that you're trying to "gauge"?

Lol, you all keep clamouring for simplicity, but the market is not simple, it’s actually very complex. There are many forces at play. You can simplify your approach, but then you’ll ride through both the highs and the deep lows. Yes, markets eventually recover, hopefully.

Valuation can look excellent and you can still experience 40–50% drawdowns; you should know this from 2019/2020. With a bit more sophistication, you can do better by exiting earlier and returning closer to the bottom, while the ‘simple’ guy rides the full roller-coaster.

HesInMe:
No need for the drama. Let's think through this. What's the "risk" that you're trying to "gauge"?

Market fragility refers to the probability that a shock triggers a large move because the market’s internal structure is weak. At that point, even minor news can cause a major crash.

Structural fragility has nothing to do with whether the market is expensive or cheap. It’s about whether:

liquidity has dried up, you need active buyers and sellers to sustain a market;

turnover has collapsed, the value being exchanged has dropped sharply;

breadth has deteriorated, only a few stocks are moving while most remain stagnant;

a handful of stocks are carrying the entire market, concentration risk;

volatility is clustering, the market is stuck, with limited real movement;

small orders are moving prices more than they should, a sign of thin liquidity and easy manipulation.


That’s the risk I’m measuring.
P/E ratios don’t capture any of this, they’re valuation tools, not stability indicators.