Ositadima1's Posts
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essentialone:Not really. Even though they have negative equity due to huge payables, this debt isn’t interest-bearing, so it doesn’t eat into whatever profit they manage to generate. I’m not sure what kind of deal they have with the companies that supplied them goods or services, worst case, they do a rights issue or gradually pay it off over time. Those companies can’t take over NCR, strip it for parts, and sell, they wouldn’t recover their money that way. The only viable option is to support NCR until it’s able to pay them back, so it’s not imploding anytime soon. Despite all this, I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock reaches ₦30 per share. |
Agbalowomeri: ![]() |
ghm: ositadima1:old post |
mikeapollo:I’ve already shared my take on CGT, but you guys didn’t like it, so why bring it up again? I clearly showed that selling now isn’t necessary, and I even gave you a simple way to reduce the tax by rotating into another stock, even the same one would work. How sure are you that what’s happening is actually CGT-related? We’ve had similar red periods earlier this year, long before the CGT issue came up, so how can you be so certain? I come in peace ooo. ![]() |
Agbalowomeri:Let’s bet, one crate of Hero beer, that AccessCorp will drop below 20 before Zenith hits 50. Let Mcy56 be our escrow. ![]() |
PETERiCHY:I told people that Access could reach 20, and they said it wasn’t possible, lol. I can tell you for free, if Zenith hits 50, AccessCorp would have already gone below 20 long before that. |
To buttress my point, look at MTNN, it was in a tough spot just like DangSugar last year, but let’s examine the cash flows: Q1: ₦441 billion in cash inflows ₦220 billion in capex It was already generating positive cash flow right from Q1. Q2: ₦955 billion in cash inflows ₦538 billion in capex Cash inflow increased even further this quarter. Q3: ₦1.558 trillion in cash inflows ₦800 billion in capex Once again, cash flow remained positive and kept growing, with total capex still well below cash inflow. Based on this, free cash flow stands at about ₦754 billion, no surprise they announced a dividend. Now, how does DangSugar compare? |
pluto09:So, a 50% drop according to your data. My earlier calculation still stands, discount inventory by 50% and see if it makes a big difference on the bottom line. I think a 50% drop would have a noticeable impact. But then, we also need to know how quickly they started restocking compared to how fast costs were adjusted. The reverse situation would have produced faster profits, moving from cheap raw materials to higher prices, like what happened with filling stations during Tinubu’s announcement. Overnight, all the stations were selling at more than five times their old prices, even though they were still running on old stock. |
aj8:The problem with judging EPS based on Q3 alone is that it can tell a misleading story. Remember the tale of the three blind men who each touched a different part of an elephant, each one described a completely different animal. By your reasoning, if it kept growing at 134%, its EPS would surpass NVIDIA’s in a few years, which is obviously unrealistic. Cash flow is a better metric; it shows whether actual cash is coming in or if the company is simply burning through its reserves. Based on the Q3 cash flow snapshot, cash flow is negative, reserves are being depleted, and the company isn’t generating real profit. |
Besides, it’s very hard to be objective when you’re already invested in a stock. The human brain does everything it can to protect itself, your thoughts aren’t completely logical at that point; they’re biased. I was watching a movie last night where an actor hanged himself. He wanted to do it, he was at peace with it, but the moment he actually did, his body started thrashing, that’s the irrational part of him trying to survive. Same thing here: once you’re in a stock, your mind will always be biased to some extent, and you can’t fully control it. The bigger your investment, the stronger that bias becomes. Human nature. ![]() |
pluto09:Lol, not enough detail. Sugar is down by how many percent? Assuming the issue with DS is only inventory, we can actually estimate the impact of the drop in sugar prices. Let’s say it fell by 10%, we could discount the portion of cost of sales related to sugar inventory by 10% and see if it would have made a significant difference. Simply saying that history has taught us this or that is just wishful thinking. ![]() |
aj8:They’re not completely out yet. Look at their current nine-month cash flow, it’s negative, meaning they lost money overall, yet they still spent ₦24 billion on capital expenditure. If the remaining three months don’t turn things around, they’ll still end the year with losses. I think the stock will only start to take off when they begin generating real profits and adding value for shareholders. In Q2, I valued them to move above ₦79 because they had around ₦50 billion in cash flow(all dried up), but I don’t think they’ll reach that level with the current weak results. ![]() |
Agbalowomeri:I guess this is happening because EPS isn’t well-suited for intrinsic valuations, it requires too many adjustments. I’d rather use FCF as the input. EPS is prone to manipulation; for instance, it deducts depreciation and amortization, even though those costs were already paid years earlier through CapEx. It doesn’t reflect the actual cash available to shareholders, largely due to the distortions of accrual accounting. |
You can even get tax rebates if you later sell the other stock at a small loss. |
awesomeJ:Why do you want to sell it in July next year? Do you have a crystal ball that says it will double by July 2026? The argument is that people are being misled into selling now, thinking it’s the better strategy, and I’m telling you it’s not. If you want to sell now, no problem, but for most investors who rotate their cash, they can sell and buy something else directly without being taxed, as long as it’s within the same tax year. |
Here is where it was clearly stated in the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, on page 32.
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awesomeJ:All this talk about rebasing isn’t necessary. Once you sell within a tax year and buy another stock, your tax automatically resets. So, you don’t have to sell now and wait until January to buy again, just make sure that whenever you sell, you also buy something else to trigger the reset. |
Agbalowomeri:Are you saying you’re the only one who likes a good bargain or what? Before it even gets there, people will start buying. The only way it gets to that level is if there’s a serious problem with the bank or with Nigeria as a whole. Some stocks may fall, but the good ones will hold their ground. Do you think you’re the only one with a bullion van waiting for price drops? Maybe your problem is anchoring, I’ve noticed you tend to anchor to old prices, probably because you’re used to them. But we’ve told you before that things have changed. One bottle of Hero beer is now ₦1,000, it’s not going back to ₦300. You can keep anchoring and waiting for it at ₦300 if you like. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:9:30 |
Mistersolar:Lol, you want to use idea to confirm from me, no problem, let me tell you why it’s true. In Anambra, it’s actually very lucrative. Short-distance fares start from about ₦200, and I mean very short distances. If you’re going from Oba to Onitsha, they charge around ₦600 to ₦700. From Oba to Oraifite, which is in the opposite direction, you pay between ₦400 and ₦500. If you have luggage, you pay extra too. Now, let’s assume a conservative average of ₦300 per full trip from point A to B. I’m not even factoring in passengers getting on and off along the way. A full load is five passengers, three at the back and two in front, so ₦300 × 5 gives ₦1,500 for one one-way trip. For a full round trip, that’s ₦3,000. How many of those do you think a driver can do between 7 a.m. and 12 p.m.? Let’s say five round trips, that’s ₦15,000 already. Another five in the afternoon or evening gives another ₦15,000. Now let’s factor in fuel. Assuming one full round trip uses about one liter, since keke engines are small and fuel-efficient, like motorcycles, at ₦1,000 per liter, that’s about ₦10,000 spent on fuel for the day. That leaves ₦20,000. Set aside ₦5,000 for maintenance and other expenses, and you still have a decent profit. I think I’m being very conservative here because, in reality, they often make more than ₦3,000 per round trip and usually complete more than ten trips a day, it takes me less than 20 minutes to get from Oba to Onitsha when i take keke. This is based on data from my state; yours might be different. So, next time, don’t be rude when you’re not sure what you’re arguing about. |
Ibtxxo:Use about 4 million to buy a new keke, complete all the papers and licensing, and drive it yourself. I don’t know what state you’re in, but I’ve heard that keke drivers usually remit around ₦15,000 per day to the owners, so I’m sure you can even make more since you’ll be driving it yourself. Take good care of it, maintain it properly, and after about six months, you can go ahead and get married; there’s no need to keep waiting. If you’re diligent and hardworking, I believe that within two years you should be able to buy another keke and put it on hire. It provides steady income, and many young people are doing well with it. |
UNIBENDON:I found this data from 2022, the U.S. accounts for less than 4%. Are you suggesting they’re waging a war on behalf of Belgium and the Netherlands, which together cover almost 50% of Nigeria’s refined product imports? Please, argue with facts, not unfounded emotions. Have you ever seen the U.S. invade a country simply because it placed a tariff on imports? Or do you think Nigeria will be the first? You people need to drop this “they’re not happy with my progress” mindset. No one can hold you down except yourself. Unless you want to deny that there’s been a rise in killings across Nigeria, the message was clearly meant to wake up the administration.
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GeneralDae:I’ve been reading these comments and just laughing. Someone even said it’s because of the 15% tax on fuel importation, lol. People are coming up with all kinds of wild ideas. How much fuel does Nigeria even import from the U.S. to justify a war? Does that make any sense? When has the U.S. ever invaded a country over something that flimsy? What I actually see coming are sanctions. The U.S. might start sanctioning Nigeria if the government doesn’t address the high level of killings. I don’t see how the U.S. would put boots on Nigerian soil without cooperation from Nigeria itself. They’ve worked with us before on the Boko Haram issue, but that ended in a mess, our military would often tip off the terrorists before major operations. |
Streetinvestor2:I never lied about anything, you can quote the supposed lie I told for everyone to see. I clearly made projections based on available data. Using the land size and the value of their palm fruits, I arrived at my projections, and it’s all documented here on this thread. I used sound reasoning to argue with the opposition. Even when they made certain claims, I still proved the possibility of alternative outcomes. To me, lying means presenting speculations as facts, something I never did. From day one, I made it clear that my arguments were based on projections, and I even discussed risk mitigation. All my posts are here; just search my moniker alongside EllahLakes and you’ll find them. Let me tell you, EllahLakes is going places, though it might take some time. But, at the current price, I need to see commensurate value. |
emmanuelewumi:Lol, I’m actually the one who started the EllahLakes movement recently, as far back as last year when it was around ₦3. I clearly projected that the stock would become a multibagger. While many of you were on the opposing side of the argument, I stood firm. Then, when the price began to deviate from my valuation, I came here and told people to exit because it needed to justify its current value. I was transparent, I called the entry, stayed the course, and also called the exit. Everything is right here on this thread. Anyone who followed me made money; taking it from ₦3 to ₦12 is no small feat. And to those invoking God’s name, you need to get your heads checked. All stocks are, in a way, low-key Ponzi schemes. You need someone to buy higher for you to sell at profit. If buyers are buying more than they’re selling, the price goes up; when the reverse happens, it goes down. Presco or NAHCO are rising simply because people are willing to buy them higher. Once that sentiment changes, they’ll fall too. God has nothing to do with it. |
pluto09:Why is the budget so large if we are not productive? It looks over-bloated, all these ₦13 trillion budgets that show no real justification after implementation. But correct me if I’m wrong: most of what the government spends goes to salaries, which are naira-denominated, and then supposedly to capital projects. The government has been investing in these capital projects for years, yet they don’t seem to generate real value. What percentage of Nigerians actually benefit from these massive expenditures? Most citizens and businesses still provide everything for themselves, electricity, water, security, and so on. The only thing we all seem to enjoy are a few roads. We keep borrowing billions of dollars to close budget shortfalls, yet there’s nothing concrete to show for it. ![]() |
Olaide1295:I have this to say: Nigeria’s track record when it comes to the productive use of borrowed funds is… not great. Feel free to prove me wrong. |
Streetinvestor2:Lol, they said our reserves are increasing, yet they’re still borrowing, they just approved a $2.5 billion loan. So, you move from $40 billion to $42 billion, and people like GeneralDea will clap, then you borrow $2.5 billion right after. I confirmed this administration’s cluelessness when they started dragging it out with NNPC over the Dangote Refinery earlier this year. In any sane country, a project like the Dangote Refinery would receive every possible form of support, given the immense value it brings to the nation. Instead, they supported sabotage. If Dangote were weak, the project would have folded. That’s when I realized they’re just here to loot and leave. ![]() |
khanivorous:My bad, Lestat is indeed white. But another major character, Louis de Pointe du Lac, was originally a white plantation owner in the novels. In the show, however, he’s portrayed as a Black man. Louis is a key character because Anne Rice wrote about him extensively in many of her books, so changing his race felt off.
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khanivorous:It's alright. |
armadeo:I’m sorry, but casting a Black actor as Lestat completely threw me off. It’s a major deviation from the books. For people like us who actually read them, it feels like a completely different story. Anne Rice clearly described Lestat’s origins, and they’re nothing like what’s shown in the series. So, I don’t think they’re overflogging anything, they’re just telling a different story that’s only loosely connected to Anne Rice’s universe. |
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