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InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:01am On Nov 08, 2025
essentialone:
Please, why are people rushing to buy the shares of NCR Plc? I see it as a Toxic company and a Time Bomb waiting to explode badly... Their Books is in a mess. Fine they made profit after series of losses, but they are not yet out of the woods. Also, it is worrying that their Current Liabilities is higher than even their Total Assets. Take a 2nd look at it and tell us what we are missing in it...
Not really. Even though they have negative equity due to huge payables, this debt isn’t interest-bearing, so it doesn’t eat into whatever profit they manage to generate. I’m not sure what kind of deal they have with the companies that supplied them goods or services, worst case, they do a rights issue or gradually pay it off over time. Those companies can’t take over NCR, strip it for parts, and sell, they wouldn’t recover their money that way. The only viable option is to support NCR until it’s able to pay them back, so it’s not imploding anytime soon.

Despite all this, I wouldn’t be surprised if the stock reaches ₦30 per share.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:35pm On Nov 07, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Let's bet with our babes if e sure for you grin
grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 4:12pm On Nov 07, 2025
ghm:
What do you mean by rotating into another stock, even the same one?
Do you mean selling the stock and reenter again? Did you consider the impact/extent of the fees to sell and fees to buyback?

Kindly explain more.
ositadima1:
The tax law seems to provide a loophole specifically for stocks. If you reinvest your earnings within the same tax year, you don’t pay tax on those earnings for that year — tax is only applied to the portion you withdraw without reinvesting.

Another interesting point is that the law doesn’t specify how long you must hold your new investment before selling it again. In many other countries, you typically need to hold the new purchase for at least a year to qualify for tax exemption.

So, the loophole here is this: make profits from those rubbish “jijo” stocks, withdraw the gains, and reinvest them into more liquid and stable stocks like banks, Presco, or BUA Foods. Then, sell those after a week, even if it’s at zero gain, a small profit, or even a small loss.

Sounds almost like money laundering, lol.
old post
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:46pm On Nov 07, 2025
mikeapollo:
If the CGT madness is not reversed, virtually every stock will be affected. Some may be affected more or quicker than others, but all stocks will get a hit eventually and it would be opportunity for bargain hunters to accumulate.
I’ve already shared my take on CGT, but you guys didn’t like it, so why bring it up again? I clearly showed that selling now isn’t necessary, and I even gave you a simple way to reduce the tax by rotating into another stock, even the same one would work.

How sure are you that what’s happening is actually CGT-related? We’ve had similar red periods earlier this year, long before the CGT issue came up, so how can you be so certain? I come in peace ooo. cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 3:19pm On Nov 07, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
Don't bet on Zenith o
The stock no well despite being fundamentally sound grin grin grin
Let’s bet, one crate of Hero beer, that AccessCorp will drop below 20 before Zenith hits 50. Let Mcy56 be our escrow. grin grin cheesy
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:52pm On Nov 07, 2025
PETERiCHY:
OANDO & ACCESS sighted @t Sub #40 and sub #22 respectively while Ellah baby has s finally secured at #13 junction.

Meanwhile EDUCO & Street-Fighter rightnow grin grin grin grin grin
I told people that Access could reach 20, and they said it wasn’t possible, lol. I can tell you for free, if Zenith hits 50, AccessCorp would have already gone below 20 long before that.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:59am On Nov 07, 2025
To buttress my point, look at MTNN, it was in a tough spot just like DangSugar last year, but let’s examine the cash flows:

Q1:
₦441 billion in cash inflows
₦220 billion in capex
It was already generating positive cash flow right from Q1.

Q2:
₦955 billion in cash inflows
₦538 billion in capex
Cash inflow increased even further this quarter.

Q3:
₦1.558 trillion in cash inflows
₦800 billion in capex
Once again, cash flow remained positive and kept growing, with total capex still well below cash inflow.

Based on this, free cash flow stands at about ₦754 billion, no surprise they announced a dividend. Now, how does DangSugar compare?
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:21am On Nov 07, 2025
pluto09:
The logic is simple.
The major cost input for DS is raw sugar.
When price of raw sugar rises, it takes time before the company is able to pass the cost to consumer by raising price of refined sugar. And when price of raw sugar falls,this most times does not reflect in price of refined sugar which translates to more profit for DS.
Raw sugar has lost close to half of its price yoy and it's still falling and I know that has not reflected in price for consumers.
So, a 50% drop according to your data. My earlier calculation still stands, discount inventory by 50% and see if it makes a big difference on the bottom line. I think a 50% drop would have a noticeable impact. But then, we also need to know how quickly they started restocking compared to how fast costs were adjusted.

The reverse situation would have produced faster profits, moving from cheap raw materials to higher prices, like what happened with filling stations during Tinubu’s announcement. Overnight, all the stations were selling at more than five times their old prices, even though they were still running on old stock.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:11am On Nov 07, 2025
aj8:
Can we agree on some areas?
1. Price is normally forward-looking
2. Progress ( in percentages) made in the last quarter 3 was better than in their 9 months Q3, which were actually flat in 9 months 2025 vs 9 months 2024 but 134% in qtr 3 (last quarter of 2025 vs same 2024)
3. If momentum in qtr 3 is maintained DS should see further improvement in earnings
4. The breakdown of quarter 3 is not detailed, all that was put across is that eps improved by 134% from negative 3.32 to positive 1.13. No sufficient details were given. The company I guess, just wanted to convey that “Hey folks, it’s not really as bad as you think”.
5. I think we also agree that the turnaround could show in Q1 2026 or at most Q2 2026
6. All our investment objective is to get a front row seat …entry at or close to the bottom is fine..

I am prepared to jump in now below 55.60 and keep loading with the hope that qtr 3 momentum would be sustained and the estimates would be hit within 6 months or at most 9 months. Q1 2026 to my mind is the quarter to watch … if good it would be an all-on-board train departing. However, all are based on the economy not walking into a doldrum of economic, political, or geopolitical woes. That's the major risk.
The problem with judging EPS based on Q3 alone is that it can tell a misleading story. Remember the tale of the three blind men who each touched a different part of an elephant, each one described a completely different animal. By your reasoning, if it kept growing at 134%, its EPS would surpass NVIDIA’s in a few years, which is obviously unrealistic.

Cash flow is a better metric; it shows whether actual cash is coming in or if the company is simply burning through its reserves. Based on the Q3 cash flow snapshot, cash flow is negative, reserves are being depleted, and the company isn’t generating real profit.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:56am On Nov 07, 2025
Besides, it’s very hard to be objective when you’re already invested in a stock. The human brain does everything it can to protect itself, your thoughts aren’t completely logical at that point; they’re biased. I was watching a movie last night where an actor hanged himself. He wanted to do it, he was at peace with it, but the moment he actually did, his body started thrashing, that’s the irrational part of him trying to survive. Same thing here: once you’re in a stock, your mind will always be biased to some extent, and you can’t fully control it. The bigger your investment, the stronger that bias becomes.

Human nature. lipsrsealed embarassed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:39am On Nov 07, 2025
pluto09:
He is doing a good job though I also have my reservation with the way he uses the number line.
DS should do well next year considering the fact that the price of raw sugar is down in the international market, the support around $15 has just been broken. History has taught us that DS makes a lot of money when price of raw sugar is on a downward spiral.
The only negative I see with the company now is the finance costs,that needs to be brought down ASAP.
Lol, not enough detail. Sugar is down by how many percent? Assuming the issue with DS is only inventory, we can actually estimate the impact of the drop in sugar prices. Let’s say it fell by 10%, we could discount the portion of cost of sales related to sugar inventory by 10% and see if it would have made a significant difference. Simply saying that history has taught us this or that is just wishful thinking. grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:27am On Nov 07, 2025
aj8:
That’s okay. Let’s wait it out and have this discussion in 6 months granted no unforeseen economic calamity. It’s just the opposite of where you often stand , so I can understand why it’s not aligning with you. It may make a lot more sense if you rather think in percentages. It’s really mathematical and sadly it’s not everyone’s friend. What is the percentage improvement from -3.32 to +1.13? Maybe then if you answer correctly it would start to make sense.
The beauty of this forum is that it allows for polygamy of thoughts.
I appreciate you and even more, your comments.
They’re not completely out yet. Look at their current nine-month cash flow, it’s negative, meaning they lost money overall, yet they still spent ₦24 billion on capital expenditure. If the remaining three months don’t turn things around, they’ll still end the year with losses. I think the stock will only start to take off when they begin generating real profits and adding value for shareholders.

In Q2, I valued them to move above ₦79 because they had around ₦50 billion in cash flow(all dried up), but I don’t think they’ll reach that level with the current weak results. lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 5:28am On Nov 07, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
I still think this your method doesn't work when you try to use number line. It does not apply common sense. I can't fathom how an expected FY EPS of less than N2 would be projected to any price more than N20. That is a PE of 10. At 80 it will be a PE of 40. That cannot make sense to me.
I guess this is happening because EPS isn’t well-suited for intrinsic valuations, it requires too many adjustments. I’d rather use FCF as the input.

EPS is prone to manipulation; for instance, it deducts depreciation and amortization, even though those costs were already paid years earlier through CapEx. It doesn’t reflect the actual cash available to shareholders, largely due to the distortions of accrual accounting.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:50pm On Nov 05, 2025
You can even get tax rebates if you later sell the other stock at a small loss.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:48pm On Nov 05, 2025
awesomeJ:
Do you just like baseless arguments?

If you have 10m units of HONYFLOUR you bought at N5 and want to sell by July next year and pull out the proceeds

How does the provision you highlighted help you avoid paying taxes on the c. N150m gains?
Why do you want to sell it in July next year? Do you have a crystal ball that says it will double by July 2026? The argument is that people are being misled into selling now, thinking it’s the better strategy, and I’m telling you it’s not. If you want to sell now, no problem, but for most investors who rotate their cash, they can sell and buy something else directly without being taxed, as long as it’s within the same tax year.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:33pm On Nov 05, 2025
Here is where it was clearly stated in the Nigeria Tax Act 2025, on page 32.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:20pm On Nov 05, 2025
awesomeJ:
It'll have thesame impact, since you'll be paying recent prices for the defensive stocks, no one will claim your historical low purchase price again.
All this talk about rebasing isn’t necessary. Once you sell within a tax year and buy another stock, your tax automatically resets. So, you don’t have to sell now and wait until January to buy again, just make sure that whenever you sell, you also buy something else to trigger the reset.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:57am On Nov 05, 2025
Agbalowomeri:
If I see Zenith @35-40 I fit dey tempted grin
Are you saying you’re the only one who likes a good bargain or what? Before it even gets there, people will start buying. The only way it gets to that level is if there’s a serious problem with the bank or with Nigeria as a whole. Some stocks may fall, but the good ones will hold their ground.

Do you think you’re the only one with a bullion van waiting for price drops? Maybe your problem is anchoring, I’ve noticed you tend to anchor to old prices, probably because you’re used to them. But we’ve told you before that things have changed. One bottle of Hero beer is now ₦1,000, it’s not going back to ₦300. You can keep anchoring and waiting for it at ₦300 if you like. grin grin grin
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 9:21am On Nov 05, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
Pls what time can I place pre market order on Morgan capital
9:30
BusinessRe: Is ₦5M Enough For Someone To Start A Business And Get Married? by ositadima1(m): 2:52pm On Nov 04, 2025
Mistersolar:
15k per day...lool..nothing like dat oo
Lol, you want to use idea to confirm from me, no problem, let me tell you why it’s true. In Anambra, it’s actually very lucrative. Short-distance fares start from about ₦200, and I mean very short distances. If you’re going from Oba to Onitsha, they charge around ₦600 to ₦700. From Oba to Oraifite, which is in the opposite direction, you pay between ₦400 and ₦500. If you have luggage, you pay extra too.

Now, let’s assume a conservative average of ₦300 per full trip from point A to B. I’m not even factoring in passengers getting on and off along the way. A full load is five passengers, three at the back and two in front, so ₦300 × 5 gives ₦1,500 for one one-way trip. For a full round trip, that’s ₦3,000.

How many of those do you think a driver can do between 7 a.m. and 12 p.m.? Let’s say five round trips, that’s ₦15,000 already. Another five in the afternoon or evening gives another ₦15,000.

Now let’s factor in fuel. Assuming one full round trip uses about one liter, since keke engines are small and fuel-efficient, like motorcycles, at ₦1,000 per liter, that’s about ₦10,000 spent on fuel for the day. That leaves ₦20,000. Set aside ₦5,000 for maintenance and other expenses, and you still have a decent profit.

I think I’m being very conservative here because, in reality, they often make more than ₦3,000 per round trip and usually complete more than ten trips a day, it takes me less than 20 minutes to get from Oba to Onitsha when i take keke.

This is based on data from my state; yours might be different. So, next time, don’t be rude when you’re not sure what you’re arguing about.
BusinessRe: Is ₦5M Enough For Someone To Start A Business And Get Married? by ositadima1(m): 12:43pm On Nov 04, 2025
Ibtxxo:
Today makes me 41 years old.
I have been jobless since I finish school.
I have never work in my life.
The only work I did was teaching in private school for years with peanut.
I decided to resign and sold some property I got from family.

I am just tired and i need direction to manage this money before I waste everything.

Please make una advice me.
Use about 4 million to buy a new keke, complete all the papers and licensing, and drive it yourself. I don’t know what state you’re in, but I’ve heard that keke drivers usually remit around ₦15,000 per day to the owners, so I’m sure you can even make more since you’ll be driving it yourself.

Take good care of it, maintain it properly, and after about six months, you can go ahead and get married; there’s no need to keep waiting. If you’re diligent and hardworking, I believe that within two years you should be able to buy another keke and put it on hire. It provides steady income, and many young people are doing well with it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 2:57pm On Nov 03, 2025
UNIBENDON:
Is like you're a USA lover and to u the USA is not trying to sabotage Nigeria.

Nigeria has taken or is about to take African refined petroluem products market from the western world. I know they are not happy about Dangote refinery.
I found this data from 2022, the U.S. accounts for less than 4%. Are you suggesting they’re waging a war on behalf of Belgium and the Netherlands, which together cover almost 50% of Nigeria’s refined product imports? Please, argue with facts, not unfounded emotions.

Have you ever seen the U.S. invade a country simply because it placed a tariff on imports? Or do you think Nigeria will be the first? You people need to drop this “they’re not happy with my progress” mindset. No one can hold you down except yourself.

Unless you want to deny that there’s been a rise in killings across Nigeria, the message was clearly meant to wake up the administration.

InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:43am On Nov 03, 2025
GeneralDae:
If the U.S do this alone, are you sure they would care to easily differentiate who the herder terrorists are from amongst the people in Benue and Plateau? Do they even know or care about the dynamics of the conflict in the middlebelt except for the simplistic “Muslims are killing Christians Slogan”? Do you think this would be easy and quick as Trump boasted and would he care if it spirals into something else?
I’ve been reading these comments and just laughing. Someone even said it’s because of the 15% tax on fuel importation, lol. People are coming up with all kinds of wild ideas. How much fuel does Nigeria even import from the U.S. to justify a war? Does that make any sense? When has the U.S. ever invaded a country over something that flimsy?

What I actually see coming are sanctions. The U.S. might start sanctioning Nigeria if the government doesn’t address the high level of killings. I don’t see how the U.S. would put boots on Nigerian soil without cooperation from Nigeria itself. They’ve worked with us before on the Boko Haram issue, but that ended in a mess, our military would often tip off the terrorists before major operations.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 11:30am On Nov 03, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
U did it by coming up with all kind of lies.You didn't attack the people who saw it differently by calling them names. You didn't go far to making it tribal thing.
I never lied about anything, you can quote the supposed lie I told for everyone to see. I clearly made projections based on available data. Using the land size and the value of their palm fruits, I arrived at my projections, and it’s all documented here on this thread.

I used sound reasoning to argue with the opposition. Even when they made certain claims, I still proved the possibility of alternative outcomes. To me, lying means presenting speculations as facts, something I never did. From day one, I made it clear that my arguments were based on projections, and I even discussed risk mitigation.

All my posts are here; just search my moniker alongside EllahLakes and you’ll find them. Let me tell you, EllahLakes is going places, though it might take some time. But, at the current price, I need to see commensurate value.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 10:57am On Nov 03, 2025
emmanuelewumi:
Be careful of who you follow on this thread, most people will carry you to where you no know and will later tell you that investing is not a team sport.

Be careful about those who are extremely aggressive with the marketing of their stocks, be careful of those who attack , abuse, curse and are rude to those who have contrary opinions concerning their stock picks.


E get why
Lol, I’m actually the one who started the EllahLakes movement recently, as far back as last year when it was around ₦3. I clearly projected that the stock would become a multibagger. While many of you were on the opposing side of the argument, I stood firm. Then, when the price began to deviate from my valuation, I came here and told people to exit because it needed to justify its current value.

I was transparent, I called the entry, stayed the course, and also called the exit. Everything is right here on this thread. Anyone who followed me made money; taking it from ₦3 to ₦12 is no small feat.

And to those invoking God’s name, you need to get your heads checked. All stocks are, in a way, low-key Ponzi schemes. You need someone to buy higher for you to sell at profit. If buyers are buying more than they’re selling, the price goes up; when the reverse happens, it goes down. Presco or NAHCO are rising simply because people are willing to buy them higher. Once that sentiment changes, they’ll fall too. God has nothing to do with it.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 12:16pm On Oct 30, 2025
pluto09:
I think our people need to pay more attention to our budget.
We have a national budget the government is working on.
The budget has a deficit of about N13 trillion which is to be financed by domestic and external borrowing.
That is to say that even if we meet our revenue target,we will still have a shortfall of about N13 trillion.
I sincerely don't know how you think a stabilisation fund of about $3 billion is what should be used to finance a year budget deficit of about N13 trillion.
We still need a long way to go, the money we are generating as a country is still very low in relation to our population.
Why is the budget so large if we are not productive? It looks over-bloated, all these ₦13 trillion budgets that show no real justification after implementation. But correct me if I’m wrong: most of what the government spends goes to salaries, which are naira-denominated, and then supposedly to capital projects.

The government has been investing in these capital projects for years, yet they don’t seem to generate real value. What percentage of Nigerians actually benefit from these massive expenditures? Most citizens and businesses still provide everything for themselves, electricity, water, security, and so on. The only thing we all seem to enjoy are a few roads.

We keep borrowing billions of dollars to close budget shortfalls, yet there’s nothing concrete to show for it. lipsrsealed
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:40am On Oct 30, 2025
Olaide1295:
Central bank’s reserves is not a fund the FG can spend or dip its hands in. That the reserves are building and the government is borrowing can co-exist.
The government runs on a budget, and the deficit comes component was known since last year. Government will borrow to fund the deficit even if reserves go to 100 billion.
I have this to say: Nigeria’s track record when it comes to the productive use of borrowed funds is… not great. Feel free to prove me wrong.
InvestmentRe: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 6:30pm On Oct 29, 2025
Streetinvestor2:
How are the bank forbearance loans to be paid in dollars
Lol, they said our reserves are increasing, yet they’re still borrowing, they just approved a $2.5 billion loan. So, you move from $40 billion to $42 billion, and people like GeneralDea will clap, then you borrow $2.5 billion right after. I confirmed this administration’s cluelessness when they started dragging it out with NNPC over the Dangote Refinery earlier this year. In any sane country, a project like the Dangote Refinery would receive every possible form of support, given the immense value it brings to the nation. Instead, they supported sabotage. If Dangote were weak, the project would have folded. That’s when I realized they’re just here to loot and leave.

grin grin grin
TV/MoviesRe: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 10:51am On Oct 29, 2025
khanivorous:
Black actor as lestat?!

You're definitely on a different story or universe
My bad, Lestat is indeed white. But another major character, Louis de Pointe du Lac, was originally a white plantation owner in the novels. In the show, however, he’s portrayed as a Black man. Louis is a key character because Anne Rice wrote about him extensively in many of her books, so changing his race felt off.

TV/MoviesRe: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 10:12am On Oct 29, 2025
khanivorous:
Black actor as lestat?!

You're definitely on a different story or universe
It's alright.
TV/MoviesRe: What Series Are You Watching Now? Part 2 by ositadima1(m): 9:19am On Oct 29, 2025
armadeo:
They shouldn't overflog the anne rice universe. The interview with the vampire is doing so well. Mayfair witches not so good.

Anyway I know after the vampire lestat and Queen of the damned, they'll run into problems unless they divertt form the books IMO.

Mayfair witches and the vampire chronicles meet up ahead. That would be interesting to see.


The talamasca might be good. I'll check and see. They might decide to introduce the talamaca characters into the vampire lestat as they play a big role in that book.
I’m sorry, but casting a Black actor as Lestat completely threw me off. It’s a major deviation from the books. For people like us who actually read them, it feels like a completely different story. Anne Rice clearly described Lestat’s origins, and they’re nothing like what’s shown in the series. So, I don’t think they’re overflogging anything, they’re just telling a different story that’s only loosely connected to Anne Rice’s universe.

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