Ositadima1's Posts
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Superex:53 units times 19.35 equals 1,025 naira and 55 kobo. |
Boshins:Lol, if that were to happen, the refinery would not last more than 5 years. They would use nepotism, corruption, and mismanagement to run it down. For those who are against Dangote or trying to remain neutral, you should try to see it objectively. Let's assume Dangote is a monopoly. What would you prefer: a monopoly that provides jobs, pays taxes, and keeps a large portion of the money within Nigeria, or a non-monopoly that sends our jobs outside the country, depletes our limited foreign exchange reserves, and funnels subsidies to a few individuals? In Nigeria, almost everyone is corrupt, but what have others done with their ill-gotten gains? Every day, the cost of living is skyrocketing, there are no jobs, and yet this is still a debate. Let's leave our baggage behind and try to see things more clearly. |
Streetinvestor2:It is the beauty of diversity: you use your unique approach to arrive at your own estimate, and I used mine. You mentioned your years of experience as your basis; I described my method for those interested in my approach (though it's not for everyone). I'm happy that my result and yours are consistent. By the way, it's not advanced calculus(it is not even my invention). It's just the standard discount method where you discount future cash flows (in this case, dividends) to present value. I assumed that dividends would grow annually by an average of 1% for the next 100 years. Each year, I discounted the dividend for that year back to today's value. For example, considering treasury bills, 100 naira invested today will be worth 120 naira one year from now. So if somebody promises me 120 naira one year from now, discounting it to present value will give me 100 naira. Therefore, there's no difference between receiving 120 naira one year from now or 100 naira today (LOL, in finance ooo, but for me, you better give me that 100 today). For the discount rate (equivalent to the interest you would get on bonds), we have variations over the years. I've seen 6%, 10%, 15%, and presently 20%. The challenge is deciding which one to use. So, I looked at past interest rates and determined the frequency of each. The Monte Carlo simulation's job was to randomly use any of these interest rates, taking historical frequency into account, to calculate the dividend discount over a 100-year period. I ran the simulation 100,000 times and extracted worst- and best-case scenarios, which you saw above. It's not a big deal. ![]() |
I think Zenithbank is worth more than 54 naira (with this current OS), based on my other personal valuation using dividend discount method with Monte Carlo simulation (my seed dividend was 4 naira). The simulation ranged between 54 and 105 naira. Do your own estimation and let me know what your target is as well. ![]() |
I have added the calculations for the year 2021 so that you can reproduce or authenticate my calculations, or find any errors. Feel free to learn from this information, compare it with your existing data, or use it in any way you find helpful. For FCFE calculation (Bank figures, in millions of Naira): 1. Net Income: 233,133 (for 2021) 2. Net Investment in Operating Capital: - Change in Loans and Advances: 3,099,452 - 2,639,797 = 459,655 - Change in Other Earning Assets (Investment securities): 477,004 - 333,126 = 143,878 Total Net Investment in Operating Capital: 459,655 + 143,878 = 603,533 3. Net Borrowing: - Change in Deposits: 5,169,199 - 4,298,258 = 870,941 - Change in Other Borrowings: 769,395 - 874,090 = -104,695 Total Net Borrowing: 870,941 + (-104,695) = 766,246 FCFE = Net Income - Net Investment in Operating Capital + Net Borrowing FCFE = 233,133 - 603,533 + 766,246 = 395,846 million Naira Now, let's calculate some key ratios under the five main groups: a) Profitability Ratios: 1. Return on Assets (ROA) = Net Income / Average Total Assets ROA = 233,133 / ((7,872,292 + 7,124,987) / 2) = 3.10% 2. Return on Equity (ROE) = Net Income / Average Shareholders' Equity ROE = 233,133 / ((1,049,775 + 905,232) / 2) = 23.84% 3. Net Interest Margin = Net Interest Income / Average Earning Assets NIM = 257,670 / ((3,099,452 + 2,639,797) / 2) = 8.97% b) Liquidity Ratios: 1. Loan to Deposit Ratio = Net Loans / Total Deposits LDR = 3,099,452 / 5,169,199 = 59.96% 2. Liquidity Coverage Ratio = (Cash + Due from Banks) / Total Deposits LCR = (1,397,666 + 518,053) / 5,169,199 = 37.06% c) Solvency Ratios: 1. Debt to Equity Ratio = Total Liabilities / Total Shareholders' Equity DER = 6,822,517 / 1,049,775 = 6.50 2. Equity Multiplier = Total Assets / Total Shareholders' Equity EM = 7,872,292 / 1,049,775 = 7.50 d) Efficiency Ratios: 1. Cost to Income Ratio = Operating Expenses / Operating Income CIR = (165,857 + 61,123) / (257,670 + 84,185 + 171,469 + 53,266) = 40.05% 2. Asset Utilization = Total Revenue / Average Total Assets AU = (340,388 + 84,185 + 171,469 + 53,266) / ((7,872,292 + 7,124,987) / 2) = 8.65% e) Market Value Ratios: 1. Earnings Per Share (EPS) = Net Income / Number of Outstanding Shares EPS = 7.43 (as reported in the income statement) These calculations provide a comprehensive view of Zenith Bank's financial performance and position. |
Here's a consolidated summary of key metrics and ratios for Zenith Bank PLC: 1. FCFE (Free Cash Flow to Equity) in millions of Naira: 2020: 54,978 2021: 395,846 2022: 1,948,384 2023: 2,990,158 2. Profitability Ratios: a) Return on Assets (ROA): 2020: 3.11% 2021: 3.10% 2022: 2.54% 2023: 4.35% b) Return on Equity (ROE): 2020: 22.40% 2021: 23.84% 2022: 20.91% 2023: 39.64% c) Net Interest Margin (NIM): 2020: 4.04% 2021: 8.97% 2022: 8.64% 2023: 11.81% 3. Liquidity Ratios: a) Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR): 2020: 52.04% 2021: 59.96% 2022: 50.24% 2023: 48.78% b) Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR): 2020: Not available 2021: 37.06% 2022: 43.52% 2023: 46.55% 4. Efficiency Ratio: Cost to Income Ratio (CIR): 2020: 41.23% 2021: 40.05% 2022: 41.47% 2023: 24.08% 5. Market Value Ratios: Earnings Per Share (EPS) in Naira: 2020: 7.34 2021: 7.43 2022: 7.47 2023: 18.97 6. Key Financial Figures (in millions of Naira): a) Net Income: 2020: 230,565 2021: 233,133 2022: 234,593 2023: 595,601 b) Total Assets: 2020: 8,481,272 2021: 7,872,292 2022: 10,570,678 2023: 16,811,093 c) Total Liabilities: 2020: 7,363,799 2021: 6,822,517 2022: 9,375,531 2023: 15,004,845 d) Shareholders' Equity: 2020: 1,117,473 2021: 1,049,775 2022: 1,195,147 2023: 1,806,248 e) Customer Deposits: 2020: 5,339,911 2021: 5,169,199 2022: 7,434,806 2023: 12,154,824 f) Net Loans and Advances: 2020: 2,779,027 2021: 3,099,452 2022: 3,735,676 2023: 5,928,796 Overall Trends and Observations (2020-2023): 1. Extraordinary FCFE Growth: FCFE has grown exponentially from 54,978 million Naira in 2020 to 2,990,158 million Naira in 2023, indicating a massive increase in cash available to shareholders. 2. Improved Profitability: After relatively stable performance in 2020-2022, profitability metrics (ROA, ROE, NIM) showed significant improvement in 2023. ROE, in particular, jumped from around 20-23% in previous years to 39.64% in 2023. 3. Expanding Net Interest Margin: NIM more than doubled from 4.04% in 2020 to 11.81% in 2023, suggesting improved efficiency in the bank's core lending activities. 4. Asset Growth: Total assets grew substantially from 8.48 trillion Naira in 2020 to 16.81 trillion Naira in 2023, nearly doubling over the four-year period. 5. Deposit Growth: Customer deposits more than doubled from 5.34 trillion Naira in 2020 to 12.15 trillion Naira in 2023, indicating strong customer confidence and market share growth. 6. Conservative Lending: Despite the growth in deposits, the Loan to Deposit Ratio decreased from 52.04% in 2020 to 48.78% in 2023, suggesting a more conservative lending approach. 7. Improved Efficiency: The Cost to Income Ratio improved dramatically from 41.23% in 2020 to 24.08% in 2023, indicating significantly better operational efficiency. 8. Enhanced Liquidity: The Liquidity Coverage Ratio improved steadily from 2021 to 2023, suggesting better short-term resilience. 9. Earnings Growth: Earnings Per Share more than doubled from 7.34 Naira in 2020 to 18.97 Naira in 2023, reflecting the bank's strong profit growth. 10. Increased Leverage: The growth in total liabilities outpaced the growth in shareholders' equity, indicating increased use of leverage over the period. In conclusion, Zenith Bank PLC has demonstrated remarkable growth and improvement in key financial metrics from 2020 to 2023. The bank has significantly expanded its asset base and deposit portfolio while maintaining a conservative lending approach. Profitability and efficiency metrics show substantial improvement, particularly in 2023. The exponential growth in FCFE suggests that the bank is generating significant cash flows for shareholders. However, the increased leverage should be monitored, although the improved profitability suggests the bank is managing this additional debt effectively. Overall, these trends indicate that Zenith Bank has successfully navigated challenges and capitalized on opportunities, positioning itself for continued strong performance in the Nigerian banking sector. |
megawealth01:I am really interested in this Ibeto story because it's always quoted by people against Dangote, in addition to his perceived monopoly. If the government decided to ban cement importation in favor of locally produced cement, and Dangote happened to be the largest producer (he was not the only producer at the time), how is this unfair? I don't know how people think sometimes. We are here crying over hyperinflation and high cost of things, but at the same time, we want to be importing everything. We are not serious yet. If it's true that the sulfur concentration is high, it can be desulfurized. A multibillion-dollar refinery must have a desulfurization process; it will take going through the process a couple of times. I think it is more of a cabal trying to fight back. The funny thing is that petrol is in high demand, and if Nigeria doesn't want Dangote's petrol, he can easily sell it elsewhere. No complain when that happens. ![]() |
lajid:The discount rate is the percentage difference between the purchase price of a T-Bill and its face value. In Nigerian T-Bills, the face value is initially deducted from your account. On the day of the bid, if successful, they return the face value minus the purchase price (this is what they call interest, although technically it isn't). At the end of the tenure, they return your face value. It's that face value minus the purchase price that they invest and refer to as investing your interest. Let me break it down: - Face Value: 100,000 - Purchase Price: 84,000 On the bid day, you get your 16,000 back (which you can now invest along with the 84,000). Some useful formulas: 1. Yield (also called effective yield or true yield) is: Yield = (Face Value / Purchase Price) ^ (365 / Days to Maturity) - 1 2. An approximation of the yield: Yield ≈ Discount Rate / (1 - Discount Rate) 3. Working backwards to find the Discount Rate: Discount Rate = (Face Value - Purchase Price) / Face Value Note: This information is based on my personal research and may not be entirely accurate. |
stcool:I have not read the article yet, but is this not shifting the goalposts? He is probably banking on Dangote Refinery and the other ones to possibly make things better for next year's budget. I heard this supplementary budget is to be able to pay the new increased workers' wages. Tinubu is a gambler, make him stake him 2 odds. ![]() |
Princkez:So, in the end, UCAP will pay more than 2 naira. Who said back-of-the-envelope calculations don't work? Though it seems I am running out of envelopes, I think I will start using the back of my PHCN bill. ![]() A casual January post... ositadima1: |
yMcy56:Based on my back-of-the-envelope calculation, taking this 40 kobo dividend as the only consideration, Mansard should be valued at least above 5.5 naira, potentially anywhere between 5.5 and 10 naira per share. ![]() |
Chai, what is all this nah. Make una maintain o, na two elder brothers una be o, for people like us. ![]() |
yMcy56:No be by wetin he mean, na d patter be dat. Look up descending triangle maybe here www. investopedia .com/terms/d/descendingtriangle . asp But eh fit be say eh no go do like that nah. ![]() the chart na example o, I no even know wetin him be, eh fit be intimacy gadgets stocks.
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yMcy56:LOL, that is a descending triangle. It's generally considered a bearish signal. While it's not infallible, it typically indicates that the price is expected to break down through the support level. Like all technical patterns, it can occasionally fail to play out as anticipated. No go dump your money in it for now. ![]() |
MeezPat:No, I copied the audited financial statements, like copying the pages and pasting them to Claude, and queried it to make the calculations based on my chosen ratios. These AIs are getting smarter. It extracted what it needed and the values, knew under which year to look for the corresponding number, and knew to add 000 to each value. It gave detailed calculations which I didn't paste here for space reasons. The free cash flow was calculated with net borrowing in consideration, hence the negative values; the FCF without it is all positive, though I didn't show it. Then I asked it to analyze the results. It seems Total is very leveraged; I think this is common in Nigeria, which is why banks are making lots of money. Most Nigerian companies run on loans. I think Total will reach 425, based on my other personal valuation using FCF (without net borrowing factored in) discount method with Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation ranged between 300 and 560 naira. Do your own estimation and let me know what your target is as well. |
FA for totalenergies, hit or miss? ![]() Let's analyze the financial data for TotalEnergies Downstream Nigeria from 2021 to 2023. Key Financial Ratios Analysis Liquidity Ratios: 1. Current Ratio: - 2021: 1.00 - 2022: 1.03 - 2023: 1.03 - Analysis: The current ratio remains stable and slightly above 1, indicating that the company has just enough current assets to cover its current liabilities. 2. Quick Ratio: - 2021: 0.82 - 2022: 0.79 - 2023: 0.79 - Analysis: The quick ratio is below 1, showing potential liquidity issues as the company may not be able to meet its short-term liabilities without selling inventory. 3. Cash Ratio: - 2021: 0.39 - 2022: 0.33 - 2023: 0.29 - Analysis: The declining cash ratio indicates reduced cash reserves, making it difficult for the company to cover its short-term obligations with cash alone. Profitability Ratios: 1. Gross Profit Margin: - 2021: 16.1% - 2022: 12.5% - 2023: 12.9% - Analysis: There is a decline in gross profit margin from 2021 to 2022, with a slight recovery in 2023, suggesting increased cost of goods sold or pricing pressures. 2. Net Profit Margin: - 2021: 4.9% - 2022: 3.3% - 2023: 2.0% - Analysis: The net profit margin is decreasing, indicating declining profitability possibly due to increased operating expenses or reduced revenues. 3. Return on Assets (ROA): - 2021: 8.1% - 2022: 5.2% - 2023: 3.4% - Analysis: A decreasing ROA shows declining efficiency in using assets to generate earnings. 4. Return on Equity (ROE): - 2021: 40.5% - 2022: 32.1% - 2023: 23.0% - Analysis: ROE is significantly decreasing, indicating reduced profitability and potentially increased financial leverage. Efficiency Ratios: 1. Asset Turnover Ratio: - 2021: 1.64 - 2022: 1.57 - 2023: 1.69 - Analysis: A slight increase in 2023 indicates improved efficiency in using assets to generate sales. 2. Inventory Turnover Ratio: - 2021: 11.26 - 2022: 9.54 - 2023: 8.32 - Analysis: The inventory turnover is declining, suggesting slower movement of inventory and potential overstocking issues. 3. Receivables Turnover Ratio: - 2021: 6.49 - 2022: 5.50 - 2023: 4.82 - Analysis: A declining receivables turnover ratio indicates slower collection of receivables, impacting cash flow. Leverage Ratios: 1. Debt Ratio: - 2021: 0.80 - 2022: 0.84 - 2023: 0.85 - Analysis: The increasing debt ratio shows growing reliance on debt to finance assets, which could be risky. 2. Debt-to-Equity Ratio: - 2021: 4.02 - 2022: 5.12 - 2023: 5.69 - Analysis: The debt-to-equity ratio is increasing, indicating higher financial leverage and potential solvency issues. 3. Interest Coverage Ratio: - 2021: 15.03 - 2022: 5.55 - 2023: 2.72 - Analysis: A sharp decline in interest coverage ratio suggests decreasing ability to meet interest obligations from earnings, increasing financial risk. Market Value Ratios: 1. Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2021: 49.66 - 2022: 47.47 - 2023: 38.03 - Analysis: The decreasing EPS reflects declining profitability and potentially reduced shareholder value. Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) Analysis: 1. FCFE (in '000 NGN): - 2021: -10,554,927 - 2022: 43,197,064 - 2023: -51,769,578 - Analysis: FCFE is highly volatile with significant negative values in 2021 and 2023, and a large positive value in 2022. This indicates fluctuating free cash flow available to equity holders, affected by changes in net borrowing and working capital. Here are the considerations for a buy, sell, or hold decision: Buy: - Positive Aspects: The company showed some resilience in gross profit margins in 2023 and a slight improvement in asset turnover. The company had a significant positive FCFE in 2022, indicating potential for high returns during certain periods. - Potential Catalysts: If the company can improve its efficiency and manage its debt levels better, it could become a more attractive investment. Sell: - Negative Aspects: Declining profitability metrics such as net profit margin, ROA, and ROE over the years. Increasing debt levels and decreasing interest coverage ratios indicate higher financial risk. Volatility in FCFE and negative cash flows in 2021 and 2023 highlight cash management issues. - Risks: The high debt-to-equity ratio and lower liquidity ratios suggest financial instability, making it a risky investment. Hold: - Neutral Aspects: Stable current ratio and slight recovery in gross profit margins in 2023. If you already hold the stock, you might want to wait and see if there are any strategic changes or improvements in the company’s financial health. Conclusion: Given the mixed results, the high debt levels, and declining profitability, selling might be the most prudent action if you are risk-averse. But, if you believe in the company’s long-term strategy and potential for improvement, you might consider holding. DD.
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Streetinvestor2:If you doubt its performance, enter the cage and see firsthand whether it is truly a lion. ![]() |
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This was Loco's post before he deactivated the account, when I was pointing out that Caverton had issues. At that time, the price of Cutix was around 2 naira, and Chams was illiquid. He made fun of me. I'm not trying to show off like OGG; I'm just stating the obvious. ![]() Una leave Caverton oil money dey pursue Cutix.In OGG's voice, I love that fellow called time. ![]() |
yMcy56:My post from 2023, I think may or april 2023. ositadima1: |
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egojeny1:The quoted inflation rate is an average across a basket of goods selected by the government. Therefore, my inflation and your inflation may not be the same, depending on what we spend money on. For some people, inflation can be as high as 60%, while for others it may be just 15%, depending on the things they buy and their location, etc. You'd better calculate your own inflation rate, lol! ![]() |
Raider76:And it is free as free beer. ![]() |
BullBearMkt:The problem is that swing low and swing high are relative terms; they depend on where you start counting on a chart. It's possible that tomorrow we may have a new swing high/low. Will your Fibonacci retracement look the same as another trader's who used a different swing high, or do you keep moving your highs and lows as the chart develops? In my early days, when I was experimenting with every indicator, I used Fibonacci retracements until it dawned on me how subjective they were. This realization came after seeing the tool brutally discredited with solid reasons on a Reddit forum I was using at the time. I don't remember all the details, but I know it's very subjective. Actually, it's very easy to use, as I recall. I have some of my charts with Fibonacci retracements posted here on this thread, I think from around 2021 or so. So, I know very well what I'm telling you. ![]() |
Raider76:You can use the site Investing . com to create a watchlist and filter stocks based on your chosen parameters. They also have an alert option that will generate a notification on your phone if you have the app installed, or send an email. The alert option can be used to track price levels (like if a specific price level is crossed, it sends you the alert), percentage moves on any given day (as it happens, I think delay is about 30 minutes), and more. Or, if you know how to code, Python can be useful to do the scanning for you based on your own customized criteria or indicators. For example, you can write code that scans for double bottoms, which you can run every day after obtaining the day's OHLCV (Open, High, Low, Close, Volume) data. These are just a few options available to you. ![]() |
BullBearMkt:I am not trying to talk you down, but this Fibonacci retracement is as subjective as anything; interpretations could be as numerous as the people using it. Why didn't you start the zero at all those points I marked? After all, at some point, the right part of the chart to that point was yet to develop. Would it have given you the same conclusion? None of these weak technical tools (Fibonacci and co.) can be compared with resistance/support lines, trend lines, RSI, or even moving average crossovers, which are far more reliable. To me, Fibonacci retracement is a joke.
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Streetinvestor2:The banks were forced by the CBN to undertake these rights issues. They actually had sufficient funds to build their safety net, but the CBN insisted that money from exchange gains and certain other sources would not be accepted. We all witnessed the drama as it unfolded. Do you think the banks are happy about being forced to dilute their shares? |
Seriously, when someone who is supposed to know better acts emotionally, this is the result. This conflict even contributed to the Targaryen dynasty's eventual fall, 170 years later during the Mad King's reign. By then, there were no more dragons. In the end, King Viserys I Targaryen was a pu5$y. |
King Viserys I's decisions contribute significantly to the conflict. The break down: Naming Rhaenyra as heir: *This went against tradition and expectations. *It set the stage for future conflict, especially after he had male children. Remarrying: *His second marriage to Alicent Hightower produced male heirs, complicating the succession. *If he hadn't remarried, Rhaenyra's claim might have been less contested. Failure to resolve the issue: *Viserys could have more firmly established Rhaenyra's position or changed his mind in favor of his son Aegon. *His reluctance to address the brewing conflict directly allowed tensions to grow. Inconsistency: *While he insisted on Rhaenyra as heir, he didn't always act in ways that reinforced this decision. Copied... |
ggoldmine:It's reasonable to be cautious about someone who makes significant financial claims (mostly unsubstantiated) shortly after registering. Verifying their experience, track record, and the authenticity of their claims is a prudent approach. And trust me, it takes time. While the part where I stated that Nigerians lack critical thinking when presented with displays of wealth (may be viewed as ad hominem), in my limited experience, it is often the case. I am done with this matter. Chao. |
Hogwarthtrades:You should be grateful that you have me. Do you think it's easy holding opposing views even when you know you'll be hated for them? ![]() A balanced view is one that sees all sides. If you prefer to only see things one way, or just the ways that are appealing to you, that's your choice. Last time I checked, I'm free to bring in my own views as long as I haven't broken the rules of the forum. Besides, you're free to counter my points (cynicism) with reason or pass. ![]() |
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