Ositadima1's Posts
Nairaland Forum › Ositadima1's Profile › Ositadima1's Posts
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 (of 180 pages)
![]() |
emmanuelewumi:But my FGSUK2027S3 still pays me about 11% despite the 20% rates we see these days. Some of the long-term debts are locked in until maturity. I understand your point, though: less debt equates to more shareholder value. BUA Cement, with their highest dividend of 2.8 naira, is placed below 80(my estimate with Monte Carlo), but you know how some favored stocks move. Based on the favorites anomaly and sentiments, it is approaching the value zone. I may buy it at below 100. I did so last year, and it gave me a small 1 million on the 1.5 million I invested when it started rising, I think one or two months after. ![]() |
emmanuelewumi:Most of these companies run on debt, which has been a source of funding for a long time and did not start today. The question is whether these long-term debts will be subject to the new interest rates. I think we should focus more on what they pay as interest and what is left for shareholders afterward. In Nigeria, it seems debt is not a huge problem as long as there are positive cash flows and also positive FCF. |
emmanuelewumi:You mean both Dangote Cement and BUA Cement? This is part of what made me run from Dangote Sugar. If I had bought most of it below 18 naira, I would have tried my luck, but at the price I bought it, I don't want to take risks since I was doing long-term investment. Banks currently lend at 25%; a company's Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) needs to be above that before considering shareholders' gain, and it's worse when equity is negative. Anyway, I'm deviating from our main discussion, which is WAPCO. If WAPCO is able to pay 3 naira in dividends, then my valuation would move to the 41 to 82 naira range. |
emmanuelewumi:WAPCO needs to pay more than 2 naira in dividends if it wants its stock price to soar. The current 2 naira dividend places it in the 26 to 50 naira price bracket. I don't have any evidence to back up my claim, only Monte Carlo simulations. |
Ginalex:Salt is going to 20 naira. Na Current Price tell me ooo. ![]() |
emmanuelewumi:Oga, you want to give me High BP, abeg o. I use God beg you o. No go there. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:Chai, Airtel don send me message say my data remain 500mb, make I quickly recharge I don't want to miss out oo, something is going down today!!! |
yMcy56:Chai, Upper cut!!! This one pain me ooo. If na me eh I won't take it oo, this upper cut too much. |
Zenith Bank has stated that they will not reduce their dividend per share. So, you have two options: take your rights and be assured of a minimum 11% return at 36 naira per share, or speculate that the price may drop below 36 naira and forego your rights to buy cheaper later. What will you do? https://nairametrics.com/2024/08/13/zenith-bank-promises-higher-dividend-payout-as-it-gears-for-oversubscription-in-its-n290-billion-capital-raise/ |
ndept:It is not good at all; some people have invested serious money in it, as they have in every stock. Berating a stock like that when huge funds are on the line is not patriotic to other members who are still invested. At the same time, we still have freedom of speech. But it seems like some of you believe that it is NSEMPA that is moving some of these stocks. Take OANDO, for example, which is trading over 100 million naira on a daily basis. Do you seriously think that if all of you sell, it will significantly move a stock like OANDO? MH is for small-cap stocks with low liquidity. Anyway, let us believe whatever makes us happy. |
Streetinvestor2:Odogwu nwoke, you have made your point. I think it is time to move on to the next matter. Please leave the stage for Mcy56; she is our official NSEPA town crier. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:I entered OANDO because of you Oga @ 15 sef, my small 500k don do times 3, I don sell sef, Be like say I go use am buy christmas clothes for my plenty pikin. Tell me when to enter again o. ![]() |
Ginalex:I dey like how Mcy56 dey talk "full bid", how she dey form "B" with her lips. Spectacular!!! ![]() |
Or u use style dey call Streetinvestor small player? ![]() |
yMcy56:This seems like emotional analysis, if you ask me. What are "big players"? If the situation were reversed and the so-called small players were busy pushing it to full bid, would you come here chanting about small players and big players? U for dey shout full bid!!! full bid!!! ![]() I'm not saying it has stopped its upward journey or reversed. I'm just finding ur trouble ooo. ![]() |
Ginalex:It depends. That DS, my gain was once enough for a small investment, but I kept holding it. While the price is going up and down like a yo-yo, I need to gain something—at least dividends or appreciation. I can't hold on to hope for longer than a year while the results are negative. To each their own, as Streetinvestor said here. I don't have any right to tell you what to do with your money. |
Time will put everything in its proper perspective, according to OGG. No need to cry, if OANDO go do 150 e go do am, if he go go back to 10 him go still do, crying no go help. ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:LOL, I only lost 800k. I sold just below my buy price. I've already put it to good use elsewhere, and I have recovered. I'm planning to sell that one too. I'm scraping 10-10 where I can, and I'll come back to sugar next year after the results. |
Streetinvestor2:Don't mind these people; everyone has the right to make their own point based on their own analysis, whether good or bad. If you're taking it personally and don't like it, please move on!!! He never mentioned any of your names. |
![]() |
Zagee:I no do ooo, but I been reason am. Nairaland na treasure trove of information o, person fit use am they reason Nigeria well from marketing to demographics to macro/micro economic indices etc. ![]() |
Raider76:Good idea! You can create an automated system that scrapes data and runs sentiment analysis. With Python, you can handle the scraping as there are several packages available for this purpose. For the NLP-based sentiment analysis, you can use the FinBERT package. Perhaps when I have some spare time, I will try implementing it for other purposes, such as product marketing and so on. Potential issues and considerations: Feedback Loop Problem: Publishing sentiment analysis results in the same thread or community where the data is gathered can influence future posts. Members might adjust their posting behavior based on the published sentiment, potentially amplifying biases or creating artificial trends. Potential Negative Effects: Self-fulfilling prophecies: Stocks shown as "positive" might receive more positive comments, further boosting their sentiment score artificially. Manipulation: Users might intentionally try to game the system by posting biased content to influence the sentiment scores. MH...Reduced data quality: The natural, unbiased expression of sentiment could be compromised, making the analysis less reliable over time. Herd mentality: It might encourage groupthink rather than diverse, independent opinions. Ethical Considerations: Responsibility: There's a ethical responsibility to ensure that the analysis doesn't unduly influence the very data it's meant to analyze. Some Solutions and Mitigations: a. Separate Data Sources: Collect data from one set of sources but publish results in a different, unrelated platform. b. Delayed Publishing: Introduce a significant time delay between data collection and result publication. c. Aggregated or Anonymized Results: Publish only high-level, aggregated results without specific stock mentions. d. Diverse Data Sources: Use multiple, diverse sources for data collection to dilute the impact of any single source. e. Educational Approach: Accompany results with educational content about biases and the importance of independent thinking. f. Randomization: Randomly select a subset of stocks to analyze and publish, making it harder to game the system. g. Meta-Analysis: Include analysis of the sentiment trends themselves, highlighting any unusual patterns that might indicate manipulation. Continuous Monitoring: Implement systems to detect unusual patterns or sudden changes in sentiment that might indicate manipulation. |
megawealth01: ![]() |
SonofElElyonRet:The potential impacts of this news for Ellah Lakes. Let's break down the key points and their implications: 1. Share Transfer by CBO Capital Partners: CBO Capital Partners, a major shareholder of Ellah Lakes Plc, is transferring a portion of its shares to its own shareholders and creditors. This move will likely have several effects: - Ownership Dilution: This will further dilute the ownership structure of Ellah Lakes, meaning CBO's control over the company may decrease. - Increased Free Float: More shares will be available for trading on the open market, potentially increasing liquidity. - Compliance with NGX Requirements: This move helps meet Nigerian Exchange Limited's (NGX) requirements for free-floating shares. 2. Financial Implications for CBO: - Debt Settlement: CBO is using this move to offset its outstanding obligations to its shareholders and creditors. - Financial Responsibility: This demonstrates CBO's commitment to managing its financial obligations. 3. Potential Impacts on Ellah Lakes: a) Positive Impacts: - Increased Liquidity: More freely traded shares could lead to better price discovery and potentially easier capital raising in the future. - Regulatory Compliance: Meeting NGX requirements could improve the company's standing with regulators and investors. - Stability: Resolving a major shareholder's financial obligations could reduce uncertainty around the company. b) Potential Challenges: - Ownership Changes: The shift in ownership structure could lead to changes in company direction or strategy if new influential shareholders emerge. - Short-term Stock Price Volatility: The market may react to this news, potentially causing some short-term price fluctuations. 4. Long-term Outlook: The news also mentions several positive developments for Ellah Lakes: - Diversification efforts, including agreements for sugar refinery and palm oil/cassava farming. - Potential acquisition of an oil palm processing company. These projects suggest that Ellah Lakes is actively working on growth and diversification, which could positively impact its long-term prospects. In conclusion, while this share transfer may cause some short-term changes in ownership structure and possibly stock price, it appears to be a strategic move that could enhance Ellah Lakes' compliance, liquidity, and financial stability. Combined with the company's ongoing diversification efforts, the overall impact could be positive for Ellah Lakes in the long run, although it will be important to monitor how the new ownership structure affects company strategy and performance. Copied... ![]() |
Streetinvestor2:If it was not a closed deal, it would have been listed separately and not used to calculate the final PAT and EPS. You still have a point; the income statement uses accrual accounting, meaning that transactions are recorded when the deal is done, not when the cash is transferred. Therefore, if the naira were to appreciate against the dollar before the cash transfers, the losses would be adjusted downwards. Let's pray we see the dollar at 900, lol. Dangote Sugar is in a tough spot as of now. It can't raise prices too much or it will spook the market, while at the same time it is forced to import raw materials from Brazil at a high exchange rate. With the increased cost of borrowing, which is above 20%, it must make more than 20% to even talk about making gains. Negative equity means that it will have to rely mostly on debt. Now, Dangote would have sought to raise cash from his connections, but his hands are already tied up with the refinery. They may go the rights issue way. Anyway, I may be very wrong as well. |
thebargainhunte:What policies, if I may ask? Tinubu is obviously not a good strategist, though he may be good at winning elections. The speech did not touch on the main issues; it was more of a cautionary address to the masses, with the rest being propaganda. We will be here, God willing, to see the wonderful next year. As of now, only one refinery exists, and Nigeria can't afford to supply it with crude because most of the crude has already been swapped for loans. I trust Dangote; he has already said that he will list the refinery on the London Stock Exchange. I see the proceeds being used to offset the huge loans, and then the foreign investors will demand their share of the profits. So, a good portion of those gains you are hoping for will be repatriated outside Nigeria. It is good to be optimistic, but it should be backed with strong evidence. |
Streetinvestor2:So, you are insinuating it will be more than 14? Very likely, sha. ![]() |
Okomuoil is still a buy. To target 425 for a sharp 30% gain. My calculated price range is 289 to 563, based on 22 dividend (14 + 8, I think) ![]() My palliative to you reader . I told a girl, "Look, if you seriously need that 25k for your cream, just do as I say. Take this 20 and invest it; it's all I have". Did I try? |
Mankind2024:I think you will be fine. If it comes to the worst, MTNN will just need to undertake another Rights Issue. A lot of investors are still invested in them, and it will likely be oversubscribed. |
![]() Your observation touches on an interesting phenomenon in investor behavior and market psychology. Let's unpack this: 1. Cognitive Biases: - Confirmation Bias: Investors often seek information that confirms their existing beliefs. If they believe a company is strong, they might dismiss negative results as temporary or unreliable. - Anchoring: People may anchor to past performance or market dominance, finding it hard to adjust their views when new information emerges. 2. Market Sentiment vs. Financial Reality: - There can be a disconnect between a company's perceived value (based on brand strength, market share, etc.) and its financial health. - In MTNN's case, its dominant market position might be causing some investors to overlook financial red flags. 3. Short-term vs. Long-term Perspective: - Negative equity in a half-year report is concerning, but some investors might view it as a temporary situation if they believe in the company's long-term prospects. 4. Understanding Financial Statements: - Not all investors fully understand how to interpret financial statements or their implications. - Some might prioritize revenue or market share over other financial metrics. 5. Trust in Management and Reporting: - There's an assumption that management might manipulate results for strategic reasons (like discouraging short-sellers), which can lead to skepticism about negative reports. 6. The "Too Big to Fail" Mentality: - For dominant companies like MTNN, some investors might believe that the company is too important to the economy to face serious trouble. 7. Service Continuity vs. Financial Health: - The belief that "as long as they are providing services, financials are irrelevant" is flawed. While service continuity is important, financial health is crucial for long-term sustainability, investment in infrastructure, and shareholder returns. Is there sense in this thinking? Not from a rigorous investment perspective. While market sentiment and company reputation are important factors, they should not overshadow fundamental financial analysis. Negative equity, especially for a telecom company that requires significant ongoing capital investment, is a serious concern that shouldn't be dismissed. Prudent investors should: 1. Analyze both qualitative (market position, brand strength) and quantitative (financial statements) factors. 2. Understand that current service provision doesn't guarantee future sustainability. 3. Be wary of dismissing audited financial statements without strong evidence of manipulation. 4. Consider how financial struggles might impact future service quality, expansion, or competitiveness. In conclusion, while there's a certain logic to the market's behavior, it's not a sound investment strategy to ignore financial realities in favor of surface-level performance or market dominance. Financial statements provide crucial information about a company's health and future prospects, and they should be given serious consideration in any investment decision. Copied... |
sophy17:Yes, this is easier and quicker. Based on the target price, you can get the average down quantity. I actually downloaded one just now. |
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 ... 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 (of 180 pages)




? 800k will be only for me soon in Jesus name Amen 
