₦airaland Forum

emmanuelewumi:
Na wa for you, joining NSEMPA few months ago does not mean the person started investing few months ago.

Oga, even you have your strengths and weaknesses. If you come here and claim to know 92% of all existing strategies, I'll call bullshit.

Someone comes along and shows a 50 million portfolio, claiming to have another 50 million cash to invest. They say they have an additional 50 million or so in the NYSE, and suddenly everyone wants to be their friend.

This person claims to know all the strategies, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, option pricing, and whatnot. But, they only registered a month or two ago.

It's funny how easy it is to impress people, especially Nigerians. Show them a few coins, and they warm up to you.

I'll be watching from afar, though. Those of us whose portfolios don't even reach 500,000 can only observe. We no fit compete, lol.

emmanuelewumi:
Instead of defending market share and improving profitability, Union Bank decided to defend their share price the way Emefiele defended Naira with our foreign reserves

I am not a fan of Emefiele, to be clear, but how can one defend the Naira when only in charge of monetary policies? If the other ministers responsible for managing fiscal policy were failing, how could the monetary side alone be expected to save the day? It is bad that Emefiele was singled out, but the other ministers who also failed alongside him are free.

Let's consider a company analogy: monetary policies are akin to financial management, while fiscal policies are similar to operational management.

Your comparison is not exact.

Is it too early to do the T-bills thing with FirstBank today, given the primary market next week on the 11th?

mikeapollo:
Smart babe!
This is how the beautiful, intelligent, brainy women make money, and some of us lazy guys would be envying them.
Please remember me whenever you discover another goldmine on the NGX.
Man shall not ''blow'' or ''hammer'' by Oando alone.

I don't know why it is that whenever I see that moniker, Young Buffett comes to mind. People keep reinventing themselves sha, even me sef.

Omooloriredade:
I'm a bit confused here. Is there anything wrong with respectfully advising you and everyone else to exercise caution? I can't fault his post. It was just a friendly advise? You have gone full ballistic on a friendly caution bro.

We are not here to compete with each other. I hope everyone agrees? If we can be respectful and accommodating of opposing views that would be great. I wish you goodluck with your investments mate.

Never mind the guy. When the stock starts losing $2k, he won't tell us again.

And then there are TA methods that are pure rubbish, such as Elliott Waves and Fibonacci retracements. These approaches are so subjective that 1,000 different people can draw their own unique conclusions from the same chart.

vacanci:
I always read but never ever understand. Could it be that most of your write-ups are for some people who u mentor outside exclusively on the art of understanding such?

Me i am not just understanding.

Maybe you need a book reviewer to help us.

make i buy or sell or hold and at what time frame. na the kind thing wey i dey understand easily be this.

The truth is that TA as a predictive tool is hit or miss. TA can tell you what has happened or what is currently happening; it can indicate whether we are in an uptrend or downtrend and whether the market is overbought or oversold, etc. But, the market can remain oversold for longer than expected, making it impossible to be certain about future movements.

FA is another valuable tool. It can help you understand the value of a stock and determine whether it's undervalued or overvalued relative to its current market price. But, FA cannot predict when stocks will move, which is why OGG cannot provide timing in his analysis.

There may be means of predicting market movements, both legal and illegal.

I believe TA and FA should be used together to improve outcomes. For instance, FA might indicate that a stock is priced well, while TA could suggest that now is probably a good time to enter. Alternatively, they could be used to identify when a stock has become overpriced.

Note that neither TA nor FA are truly predictive tools. Predictive capabilities may be found in methods like statistical modeling or machine learning algorithms. Don't misunderstand me, though – you can use TA and FA to make substantial profits if you understand them well.

Baddestguyp:
Since all the Jason 1s recall being taken from their universe and all are fully convinced that this universe is theirs, doesn't this then mean there are more Jasons than universes?

Recall that almost all the universes explored also had their own Jasons.

Recall also that all these Jason 1s came from the same universe and returned to the same.

That means there are multiple Jasons who came from the main universe...

Worse still, even if all these Jasons decide to find another universe, they would meet different Jasons in those universes too and in turn they themselves would lead to further more Jasons.


This automatically creates a scenerio where there are more Jasons than universes even though they are both infinite

No, you haven't quite grasped how this alternate universe concept works. Using "Counterpart" and "Loki" as references, the universes usually start from one source, at least as far as we're shown. From there, it splits whenever a substantially weighty decision is made. I think that's the approach adopted in this show. Every significant, life-changing decision births a new universe.

So, a Jason in one universe might spawn a new universe when he decides to skip work, and that new universe will spawn yet another at a subsequent decision point. In other words, we could start with 10 universes, for example, and end up with 1 million of them down the line.

Because each of these Jasons thinks they're from one particular universe from which they were taken, they all tried to make it back. For all we know, the winning Jason may just be one of the many alternate spawns and not even the original one.

Baddestguyp:
I haven't seen Loki...

Now let's talk about this Statement. Basically you're saying the universe splits based on different decisions and not the box establishing new verses or clones.
That's fine...


However, herein lies the issue-
Why did all these Jason 1 clones arrived at the same universe claiming they were from there?
They didn't arrive at multiple universes if the universes split, but only arrive at the single one.


This in my opinion creates a problem whereby there are more Jasons than universes... because almost every of the universes visited already had their own Jasons...

If there are more Jasons than universes, doesn't that mean through the intervention of the box, more Jasons were created?

I don't think there are more Jasons than there are universes, but the parallel universe concept is indeed messy, though it's the experience the producers intended to convey. Let's start with Jason One (based on where we all started counting). He was forcefully transferred to the universe of Jason, the inventor of the box. Upon arriving in that universe, the same decisions and subsequent splitting of universes still applied.

The Jasons resulted from the decisions he made in that universe (of Jason, the inventor of the box), plus other Jasons that emerged due to decisions made after using the box to travel to other universes. Each one is a fork of the original Jason who was forcefully taken away, as they all remembered being kidnapped and dumped in an alternate universe.

As you may have gathered, they found their way back to their ground zero. I'm sure there are many more who didn't. In one of the scenes, Jason and Amanda returned to what seemed to them to be Jason the box maker's and Amanda's original universe, only to see versions of themselves trying to flee while Amanda got murdered. I guess that was yet another universe.

It's messy, but it still makes sense. According to the show, there were an infinite number of universes, each branching out at each decision point. You need to watch Loki seasons one and two; they were cool.

In fact, the idea of multiple universes is used in decision-making, such as in decision trees. Whenever you are to make a decision, it's best to consider all possible paths, give each a probability and weight, to arrive at the best decision. Top managers use this approach.

Baddestguyp:
Dark Matter (2024).......7/10


I will copy my Reddit review here -

Unpopular opinion: The last few episodes broke the series for me... especially the ISSUE 2

I guess I will be downvoted a lot but I'll say my opinion anyway. I have serious issues with how the last few episodes went down. I have also never read the book/books. I heard a second season is unlikely as the books have concluded, so I'll type this now -

ISSUE 1 - Unresolved plotlines.

Amanda finally found a world which she felt satisfied with and could finally live her life. However Jason quietly left some of the serum with her and we see nothing on that again. This can be seen as a decent conclusion to her character journey.

But with the introduction of clones who opened different doors/made different decisions, this leads to unresolved questions as to her clones and where they are.

The version of Leighton who went after Jason 1 and Amanda was completely forgotten by the plot. Did he just remain lost in the box forever with all the clones he makes? We don't know because it's unconcluded and he was forgotten by the writers.



ISSUE 2 - The mechanics of the Box

The introduction of the Jason 1 clones completely broke the mechanics of the show and did unrepairable damage to its writing in my opinion.

Ignoring the fact that it doesn't even make any sense how it works even with the suspension of belief, the box is more of a device that links across the multiple unlimited worlds through imagination.

In other words, the box was meant to serve as a link between an unlimited number of already existing universes, not creating new universes. If it were creating universes based on imagination, then that would mean that Jason 2 created a device that could create entire universes including humans, planets, solar systems etc...

Now herein lies the problem. It's one thing for there to be different versions of Jason in different universes, it's another for there to be multiple clones of the same version of Jason all because of different choices and doors opened.

It becomes so broken that the box is practically creating full blooded clones rather than just linking worlds through imagination...

To put this into context, the box is creating entire human clones.

That means that Jason 2 created a box that can fully clone an entire human being.


Anyway, the series is still a 7/10 to me...rather than the 9/10 I was hoping it would become

Spoiler Warning

Issue one is plausible; we should have seen more clones of Amanda along with their Jasons, though one of the clones (let me use "clone" for the moment) admitted he lost her in another parallel universe.

However, your issue two is not an issue at all. The idea here is that whenever a major decision is made, the universe splits, not the box. The box is only a bridge. Even without the existence of the box, there would have been many Jasons, all blissfully ignorant of the others. I think they got this idea from the show "Loki." Remember when the alternate realities were growing uncontrollably towards the end of the show after they murdered the show's boss? The boss in that show had found a way to keep it in check.

Why I Think the Naira Will Not Continue Falling Further

The people at the helm of affairs, even though they have foreign-denominated stashes, know that a falling naira will spell trouble for them. It will affect their clandestine deals and operations. If the naira were to continue losing value, Nigeria would finally go up in flames, and they don't want that—there's still value to be siphoned.

Look at the current drama between the government and labor: a government that doesn't care would have simply printed naira to settle labor disputes, but they didn't. This supports my analysis above.

Don't get me wrong; if we continue as an overly import-dependent nation, the naira will keep falling. However, the people in charge will do everything possible to slow its decline, keeping the population in check while they siphon resources. This will continue until oil goes out of fashion, at which point we may follow the Zimbabwean route.

Willie2015:
Absolutely on point...
He will definitely make a good writer...

Lol, either you don't read much, or you're making jokes, which isn't good. He can't write well at all, perhaps only for Nigerian content readers.

If you're interested, I can provide many examples and comparisons with well-written content. This is just my opinion, though.

BullBearMkt:
Regal Assurance
-Stock price now in sellers' region, may or may not continue to rise
-Momemtum building up & price may rise to 0.55

Sovereign Trust Insurance
-Same outlook as Regal
-Price just left where I think it's a bargain price 0.39 -0.40
-Potentially, price may rise to 0.60

All you said is exactly what I see from my own perspective. To add to your analysis, both stocks are illiquid and in a bad run getting your money out would not be easy. Even getting your money in is not easy either.

yMcy56:
If OANDO didn't delist, we'll be back to remind some of you about these your posts.....God willing .

See this Oando, una go explain tire.

Na joke nah. Nobody want to join me laugh shebi dey sey laugh nah therapy.

Even Dialo, they no shoot am reach 15 shots, abi 31 sef, let me check o

onegentleguy:
Already up by approx 28.6% since the call above. (ref: N2.55 to N3.28)

Fortunately, C&,I LEASING still has plenty of room for much more upside.
...N5 is quite feasible, while a run to it's near 6-yr high of N6.8 appears inclined to a favourable probability. (the coys recent spate of financial print is also supportive of this sentiment)
It won't be a smooth/straight run, but a measured and value-driven one.
...HOLD!

For those that subscribed late to my outline and investment guide--series 1, pls look through your outline.
There's this coy among the very few stock that's yet to deliver massive gains. (70% already did so well)
...it's under the heading; "Additional investment guide", which I gave as a bonus pick.
There are 2 asset names that were analyzed therein, inclusive of TA. (chart breakdown)
Recall that one of them already delivered over 125% ROI after the skype from it's TEP of N2.8--2.9 to over N6.43.
The 2nd coy, though has returned over 18% gain, is now "fuelling up" for a great run in price.
....49--61% return from TEP level is feasible.

A reminder;
The coy is among the asset names that benefits from current macroeconomic trend
...it's operating sector is well positioned to build grosses and nets having a strong pricing power across her largely inelastic product line.

Pls take position if you're yet to do so... otherwise hold of you're already in.

Fundamentally, recent financial report shows a material improvement across several key revenue and earnings line with AER, CGPR, ROCE, R/CROIC, and EM all looking up.
....I particularly like the boost in CBR as the company embarks on further restructuring of her BS through a progressive but systemic cost optimization approach.

Using a blend of appropriate valuation model that assumes just a 15% growth in Q2/Q1 and trails same to YE, 2024 but also rakes-off surrounding risk, FVE pegs @ a triple-digit % premium to CMP.
....and that's a conservative estimate.

Even the 1st coy that returned over 127% as stated above is now at a sweet spot for reentry after a corrective wave to a strong PSZ.
My system has just signalled the possibility of another price appreciation by a 30--41% margin from CMP.

Again, take position... HOLD!

it is well

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Redoil:
Lovers of Toyota vehicles who buy from one of its foremost dealer, Briscoe Nigeria Plc can begin to start looking for another company to trade with as we can report authoritatively that the company is on the verge of folding up, due to fraudulent practices currently going on there. Our sources within the company revealed that even though the management of the Company has been trying to conceal this fact but on a daily basis, it’s becoming difficult for them. The company is ‘broke’ & heavily indebted we learnt. The company’s indebtedness is to the tune of N14bn at the moment & has been consistently making losses in the past 4 years. The loss for year 2014 is in the tune of N1.84bn, a situation which will make the shareholders likely revolt this time around. The half year report for this current year is already estimated at a loss of over N1bn. There are insinuations that this is due to bad management, particularly the current Managing Director, Mr Bukola Oluseyi Onajide who since taking over in January 2010 has nosedived the fortunes of company. The smooth-talking Managing Director is enjoying very good relationship with the Chairman of the board of directors & there is not even a single Executive director in the company; this has made it practically impossible for other board members to know the ‘true’ situation of the company. It was also learnt that the daughter of the foremost Toyota Representative in Nigeria (Chief Ade-Ojo) is also on the board of the dying company but she’s also not aware of the underground happenings. It has been alleged that the current Managing Director & General Manager (Finance) have embezzled over N500 million. This is however not new to some people as it was discovered allegedly that the General Manager (Finance) was involved in fraud in his last organization before joining RT Briscoe. The two men our sources disclosed have been siphoning the company’s funds & covering up the books in a smart way. The Chairman was due for retirement since 2013 but is still trying to retain the seat despite the bad situation of the company. The Managing Director lives a very extravagant and flamboyant lifestyle; throwing very lavish parties all on the company’s resources. The current situation has forced the company to commence sacking of workers; it was learn that close to 70 members of staff will be affected by this exercise. The Managing Director according to our sources within the company gives out brand new vehicles to several of his female friends & family members at the expense of the organization and also colluding with the GM (Finance) to siphon large amounts of money. This looting prompted the GM (Finance) to recently delete all the CCTV recordings in his office so as to destroy any evidence that could implicate him. The Managing director we learnt doesn’t have regard for all members of staff as he sees himself as the all-in-all because there is no single Executive Director or Deputy Managing Director. Most of the productive salesmen have been frustrated out of the system. Meanwhile, so many shareholders are preparing for war as the AGM comes up in a few days. Stay tuned for more details on his fraudulent and philandering lifestyle.


copied........................

This is what the ancient Romans called an epistle: no paragraphs, just a continuous flow of text.

This Oando situation reminds me of the mid-90s when Nigeria's team featured the likes of Okocha and Nwankwo Kanu. If Nigeria scored, everyone would say, "Nigeria is supposed to win; they have good players." When they started losing, people would say, "Don't worry, they will equalize." But at the end of the day, Nigeria would be knocked out of the tournament, leaving fans in tears. I'm not saying that you will shed tears o, but this incessant cho cho about Oando is getting boring.

Every large business operates on debt (sort of ... ); this is the power of capitalism. It is through this mechanism that huge revenues are generated.

sterlingD:
What is DSR up to ?

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/41505_DANGOTE_SUGAR_REFINERY_PLC-REGISTRATION_OF_MULTI_INSTRUMENT_PROGRAM_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_JUNE_2024.pdf

The CBN MPR is at 24.75% (I think ...) and banks can or do lend at higher rates. So, I see it as a strategic move by DSR to be raising more funds directly from the private sector and individuals. They can potentially get cheaper rates than what they get from banks. There are always risks though; I hope it is managed well.

nosa2:
Please when did they raise this capital? I've not been looking at the Nigerian markets

They issued a $500 million senior unsecured Eurobond in September 2021.
Here's a breakdown of the Eurobond:
* Issue size: $500 million
* Maturity: September 2026
* Interest rate: 6.125%
* Use of proceeds: General banking purposes.

They also issued a USD50 million green bond in 2022. This bond matures in 2027 and they are both listed on the London Stock Exchange.

CAP Div don land

Fidson don land.

megamart247:
@ OGG what's your take on Cadbury?

It's on full bid @t #17.60

Regarding Cadbury, I conducted a quick back-of-the-envelope valuation. The 2023 results ended with 19 billion in losses due to foreign exchange issues, with over 36 billion in forex discrepancies that wiped out shareholders' equity and pushed it into negative 6.5 billion.

For the purpose of academic evaluation, let's assume the 7.8 billion operational profit and no forex losses. We can consider the current interest rates on bonds (risk-free) of over 18% with a multiple of 1.5 as risk premium. This amounts to 15.5 naira per share (calculation: profit divided by the product of risk-free rate, 1.5, and outstanding shares).

Even without the losses, I would still consider the stock overpriced. The fact that the first quarter still reported huge losses doesn't help either.

From a technical perspective, yes, the stock moved, but with low volume—less than 2 million naira a day. This was most likely due to people trying to acquire the stock regardless of price. On the RSI, moving from oversold to almost overbought in just 3 days is not a good sign either.

This is not a sell or buy call; please do your own due diligence. As mentioned, this was a quick analysis that took me about 5 to 10 minutes, so it may not be the most comprehensive evaluation.

OGG can provide you with a saner analysis, sprinkled with jargons, if that's your preference.

Streetinvestor2:
He is looking for money for more evil.Pls how far with wapco.last yr was not too go as they paid dividend from retained earnings. What are you expecting this yr .Or you have sold off

I was just listening to "Uba Awuu Nwa" by the legendary Peacocks.

The song is incredible. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, whenever it played, I would stop everything to listen, even though I didn't fully understand Igbo at the time, let alone the Owerri dialect. The voice, the part where he invoked their gods, and the moment he broke down crying were all powerful. I heard that Uba was his brother who died in the war.

It goes like pa pa pa paaaaa, ra ra ra, rara raaaa in my head.

The melody still echoes in my head. Record companies should be listed on the NGX.

Ginalex:
You want cause kasala abi Abeg o. I like peace

U know watin be 2 mil dollars. With 2 mil, I am set for life nah, I no go even touch the 2 mil, na d pickin the money dey born go dey hold me wella still get the one way I go dey use dey change lives positively sef.

Streetinvestor2:
Make I follow blow my on trumpet. I made a call on cham at #1.80 to double by yr end though I loaded more at #1.40-#1.50.The price don touch #2.30 in just one week.

I go soon begin monetise my calls too,lol

My call for oando case on Monday is that it will be favourable to minority shareholders. I expect surprise discontinual or withdrawal of the case.

Na the two stocks I said will give 100% this yr oh

If u start I fit subscribe if money dey, your strategy dey like Chris Camillo, way dey use trends in everyday life. The guy call INVIDIA before him begging dey do press up, just like u. No big grammar or jargons and the guy still be certified investor way turn 20k USD to 2 mil, track record dey there no secrecy. The funny thing be say him they make him call free on him podcast "dumb money live".

onegentleguy:
@ osiitadima1, it's alright dear.
You really should take some time out to rest your head now.
More importantly though, I think you need to take care of yourself.
...mental health is everything.

Regards

Let's stick to the topic, shall we?

My mental health is not relevant to the validity of my points. Can you address the actual argument? Or pass...