₦airaland Forum

onegentleguy:
Honestly, we are not lacking in that department.
...we already have quite a handful and still getting more because we do a nice job at managing people's capital and also helping others make money and grow their portfolio.

Spotting early opportunities and delivering value has been our middle name.
I give God all the glory though. ...for without him, I am absolutely nothing!

Stop hating dude! Life needs you to exhibit oneness so you can focus on growth.
...it's also good for your mental health.

Do take care

Why resort to diversion and ad hominem attacks? If you have issues with a thread, why don't you go there and address them directly?

That said, you remind me of my dad's friend from years ago, an electronics technician trained in the UK. Whenever he was repairing a device, he would lock himself indoors to prevent his apprentice from learning the trade.

I am curious—are you encoding your message so that we don't understand how you arrived at your conclusion? This is amusing because whatever tools you're using are available to everyone.

Even Warren Buffett stated that "the most important quality of an investor is temperament, not intelligence."

onegentleguy:
...good one!
The AI tool did a great job but the interpretation it gave to some of the acronyms are wrong.
For instance, VZ connotes Value Zone and not volume zone.

It is well

This is another reason why being excessively cryptic is not a good way of communicating; sometimes it feels like you do it to show off.

It's amusing because none of the ideas you use are original; everything is borrowed from here and there. Don't get me wrong, the analysis is yours, but the tools are not (I stand to be corrected). Anyway, some people would be impressed by your jargon-filled texts.

onegentleguy:
This coy is doing something I like on the MTF.

Corrective run with 3 black crows candlestick pattern after an unconvincing attempt to close above the N4--4.2 level since previous high in January.
...price would later break below a KSL @ 2.90--3, possibly driven by an intent to tap into the sell-side insufficiency (ref: IMB/FVG) created by the LS/momentum move in Nov, 2023.

However, PA now appears to be rejecting a CHOCH at a confluence with last SH and resultant neckline from DB formation prior to the impulse... which also doubles as the fib retracement discount zone (ref: 0.786), implying a weakening short term bearish continuation.
VZ/PSL sits around the N2.39 region and the strong demand-side OB just below it.

A reversal to the upside could be imminent. (supported by volume)
...regaining it's 50 period EMA or better still, the previous PRL would be KEY! (see chart below)

For those who subscribed to my outline recommendations and investment guide--Series 2 early enough, I believe you must've booked some profit at the high of N4.5 before now.
...it's time to consider re-entering the coy.

And for the late subscribers, I believe your position should be in the red in light of recent pullback.
...it's time to average down.

Fundamentally, C&I LEASING is a strong buy @ CMP.
In it's last released report (ref: UFS Q4, 2023), the company recorded an impressive growth across key revenue and earnings line with NLRI, NPM and EPS up by 45.1%, 63.5% and approx 26.9% respectively.
Worthy of mention is the material improvement in the group's CCC (EM/PCEPS) CGPR, CBR, U/LFCFS and ECP despite the huge spend on capex.

C&I Leasing's conservative FVE prints @ N6.71 using a mix of appropriate valuation model and accounting for an appreciable measure of risk premium (ref: match on surrounding risk level)
...needless to highlight that that FVE is an over 138% discount from the coys CMP.

Disclaimer: NOT an investment advice. ...the need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

Selah

Here's a breakdown of the above text:

1. The company being discussed is doing something favorable on the MTF (Medium-Term Forecast).

2. There is a corrective run with a three black crows candlestick pattern, which is a bearish reversal signal, after an unsuccessful attempt to close above the N4--4.2 level since the previous high in January.

3. The price later broke below a key support level (KSL) at N2.90--3, possibly driven by an intent to tap into the sell-side insufficiency created by a previous strong upward move in November 2023.

4. However, the price action now appears to be rejecting a change of character at a confluence with the last swing high and the neckline from a double bottom formation before the impulse move. This area also coincides with the Fibonacci retracement discount zone (0.786), implying a weakening short-term bearish continuation.

5. The volume zone/price support level (VZ/PSL) sits around the N2.39 region, and there is strong demand-side order block just below it.

6. A reversal to the upside could be imminent, supported by volume.

7. Regaining the 50-period exponential moving average or, better still, the previous price resistance level would be key.

8. For those who subscribed to the outline recommendations and investment guide early, they likely booked profits at the high of N4.5 before the recent pullback.

9. It's time to consider re-entering the company for early subscribers.

10. For late subscribers, their position is likely in the red due to the recent pullback, so it's time to average down.

11. Fundamentally, C&I LEASING is a strong buy at the current market price (CMP).

12. In its last released report (Q4 2023), the company recorded impressive growth across key revenue and earnings lines, with net loan revenue, net profit margin, and earnings per share up by 45.1%, 63.5%, and approximately 26.9%, respectively.

13. The group's cash conversion cycle, capital gearing and profitability ratios, coverage and buffer ratios, underwriting/liquidity, and efficiency ratios improved despite significant capital expenditure.

14. C&I Leasing's conservative fair value estimate (FVE) is N6.71 using a mix of appropriate valuation models and accounting for an appreciable measure of risk premium, representing an over 138% discount from the current market price.

15. Disclaimer: This is not investment advice, and due diligence should still take higher precedence.

Streetinvestor2:
This seriously begs for explanation. I don't think the listing over thr is then the same with that of nigeria at 16000 plus value now

Another thing is, is OS the same as Oando listed on the NSE?

Agbalowomeri:
Una dey enjoy goodies o

U dey collect ur own from dollar appreciation nah, shebi naira don dey fall to pass 1500, no be ur gain. As you dey wait make NSE fall too, how u dey put am? Ehe, make them FuGAZ them they touch 5 5 naira.

My happiness na ur pain, my pain na ur happiness nah.

Total div don land.

Where is my Oga who always talks about the contagion effect? We may be about to experience it in all Dangote-related businesses, courtesy of the Dangote refinery. He is talking about establishing a terminal in the Caribbean, while also discussing sending cement at the same time. Sugar and salt may not be far behind. He is building CNG trucks in-house for cheaper transportation.

In my opinion, anything related to Dangote in the market should be considered a buy for the long term. It may not pay off today or this year, but it will eventually pay off.

englishmart:
To b3 very honest, 62k won't survive me for 10 days. I don't think it would survive anybody either

Correction: To be very honest, 62k won't sustain me for 10 days. I don't think it would sustain anybody either.

yMcy56:
Thanks

So if it's 1 for every three held for instance, is it the same thing?

In this case, you multiply the share price by 3 and divide by 4, calculating the cost of 3 old shares divided by the new equivalent of 4 shares (one new and 3 old).

yMcy56:
There's a formula for calculating this, which OGG gave during McNichols bonus 2yrs ago or so...Can't remember it again.
You may be right with this short cut calculations, but you know what? Do not be discouraged if you picked or intend to pick before qualification Date...

VFD is planning additional capital raise of N30bn, so theres the need to make the shares liquid I Blvd.......this could possibly be done via low share price.

Once it's markdown, like earlier said, buy more to average down (fund required to average down will be low by that time), that's the best way I think it could be done, then we wait for their MM to step in at the right time....or you make it your medium/long term stock.

*Caveat: This is just my opinion and what I would have done/intend to do as well*
**DD applies**

Adjusted Share Price = (Existing Share Price × Existing Number of Shares) / (Existing Number of Shares + New Shares Issued)

It is exactly the same as dividing the share price by five, considering four new shares plus one old share.

Mankind2024:
The current inflation is inevitable, unavoidable, and undesirable, but a necessary means of balancing the economy and addressing the unsecured and looted ways and means debts of the past administrations and aggressive correction embarked upon by the incumbent.

This administration is still accumulating debts. Aren't you aware of this? Subsidies are still being paid on refined products. Aren't you aware of this as well? There are discrepancies between what we buy at filling stations and the landing costs.

We have never experienced such high food price hikes before. Some claim it is due to increased criminal activities and increased transportation costs.

The looting of public funds cannot be stopped in this administration or the next one. We only get to find out the extent of the looting after an administration leaves office, and this one will not be different.

Please, examine these carefully, and I hope that you are not reasoning from a place of political bias, and privilege that many other suffering Nigerians do not have.

Streetinvestor2:
The guys handling access RI must be high.Well the RI cannot be for people like me.If you no pay me better dividend for my investment. You no go see my shishi for your Ri.When you succeed in pumping the stock.i sell and move to better company. No more emotional attachments to any company.
Missed selling access at #30 and fbn #30 plus

Despite the exchange gains they have realized, this is the best they can offer their long time investors, this is not good.

The stock is being diluted, yet they are offering it at a price higher than the average market value. Let me chill and observe whether the laws of supply and demand will not affect this stock.

I am almost sure that if you exercise patience, you will be able to get this stock for less than 15 Naira once the RI dust settles.

Meerahbel:
Wait! From ten naira to 50 kobo is that not retrogression

The per value has nothing to do with the share price or quantity. The only thing that changes is the share capital account on the balance sheet. Any excess amount goes to the share premium account. The market price will still be subject to normal market forces. Correct me if I am wrong.

There are enough resources to satisfy the greed of a few, but not enough for everyone's greed. That is why the government can lavish money on a few individuals (members of the House and Senate, top-level judiciary, etc.), but they cannot do it for the teeming masses.

That said, at the bottom of every endeavor, the employer must pay the employee less than what the employee generates. This is a very fundamental concept. At the same time, the employer is tasked with providing all that is needed for the employee to thrive and be productive. What a dilemma.

How does this babbling relate to our NSEMPA? Well, I think in the end, stocks and dividends will also adjust upwards, and it is good to be a long-time value investor in part, even if you are mainly a trader.

In other news, the Lagos state government is planning to build a waste-to-energy power station generating about 70 megawatts. I think it is a very good venture that should be emulated by the other states.

I think the government should list it on the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NGX). They can hold like 50 to 60% stake and float it as a public company to mitigate the inefficiencies usually seen in government-owned assets.

The raw materials are almost free and plentiful. I think the business can be very profitable.

They should acquire a fleet of electrically powered garbage trucks from China that will roam the streets of Lagos. I would invest in it personally sha.

Streetinvestor2:
I will give it a shot and maybe someone may be interested. The problem is now that the right price and the floor price are the same.

But Oga OGG say eh need am.

Streetinvestor2:
Any thing #20 and below is buy alert for me for a company that can sustain #3 div.At #15 will be accumulate. I have been long enough in the market to never make some mistakes or pay unnecessary school fees.
The emotional attachments to any stock is what I have to let go.Hence once I see the opportunity I rebalance my portfolio to whr I stand to gain more

Very soon, right issues will be flying here and there. If they price them well, it will be a good opportunity to increase shares, hopefully at a cheaper price. Based on my earlier analysis, I think some banks will maintain their dividends even after the upcoming share dilution. Here is the one from FCMB.

linecrosser:
Good day everyone. I'm a young girl, a little over 30. I want to start investing in stocks but I don't even know how to start. Pls is there any book, platform where I can learn from. Please help your sister o

Here's an outline of what I think is required to start successfully investing in stocks:

I. Develop a Basic Understanding of the Stock Market
A. Learn about different types of financial instruments (stocks, treasury bills, FGN savings bonds, Sukuk, etc.)
B. Understand how the stock market works (buying, selling, trading)
C. Learn about stock exchanges (NGX)

II. Open a Brokerage Account
A. Choose between the various online brokerage platforms (Morgan Capital Securities Limited, Investment One, Meristem, United Capital, Stanbic IBTC Stock Brokers, etc.)
B. Complete the account opening process (provide personal information, fund the account)
C. Familiarize yourself with the trading platform and tools

III. Set Investment Goals
A. Determine your investment horizon (short-term, long-term)
B. Establish your risk tolerance (conservative, moderate, aggressive)
C. Define your investment objectives (income, growth, speculation, etc.)

IV. Conduct Research and Analysis
A. Learn about fundamental analysis (studying a company's financials)
B. Understand technical analysis (studying price trends and patterns)
C. Identify industries and sectors of interest

V. Develop an Investment Strategy
A. Decide on an investment style (value investing, growth investing, etc.)
B. Determine asset allocation (stocks, bonds, cash, etc.)
C. Decide on portfolio diversification (across sectors, industries, instruments, etc.)

VI. Practice and Gain Experience
A. Start with a small amount of capital
B. Monitor and adjust your strategy as needed

VII. Manage and Monitor Your Portfolio
A. Regularly review and rebalance your portfolio
B. Stay updated on market news and company developments

VIII. Continuous Learning and Improvement
A. Read financial publications, books, and online resources
B. Follow this thread
C. Learn from experienced investors and mentors

This outline is presented in no particular order, and use it to post specific questions on this thread. Good luck on your investment journey.

Adinije:
What I am asking is "what if the stock price appreciate to maybe 25 for instance. And RI is let say #23. Wouldn't buying now at #19 be better?

What if the stock price falls to that 15 naira level? Is that not possible in this market?

You are asking me with a bias (aka emotions), while I am conversing with you with an open mind. If you think that the stock will appreciate or follow your projected scenario, by all means, stock up now.

Go back and read my previous post; I simply suggested taking the rights issue into consideration while buying shares. It was not even a buy alert.

Adinije:
What if buying at RI becomes more expensive than it is at the moment?

May I ask, what is the purpose of this question?

It is common sense that rights issues should be cheaper than the market price at the time of issuance. It is also common sense that the controlling power and therefore the value of a share is automatically reduced by the rights issue, which is reflected in the price. The author of that link estimated a price of 15 naira.

What is your own estimate, sister Adinije?

Streetinvestor2:
This FBn guys are not serious .So with this rubbish div you will still collect in almost 3 months time.
I can't believe this stock touched #40 this yr .it is well.I reinvested my uba and okomu div back in uba today at #19.
JB is making me happy BE of #24 plus. Thr won't be emotionally attachments to any stock again

"You may want to reinvest in UBA or some other FUGAZ stocks. Remember that they may start offering rights issues, so keep some of your money available for that, as it may be cheaper to purchase shares through the rights issue.

Although buying more shares now will also increase the number of rights available to you, it's still advisable to keep funds reserved. UBA's rights issue is likely coming soon."

https://nairametrics.com/2024/05/24/i-will-reinvest-100-of-my-dividends-in-right-issues-elumelu-tells-uba-shareholders/

Kereokwu:
Pls how much dividend per share did Okomu oil declare, I'm seeing two(N18.50, N14) conflicting numbers when I googled.

N14 per share, and it will be paid on May 23rd. I think the additional N4.5 figure is assuming the interim dividend will be the same as last year's interim dividend.

Streetinvestor2:
And after all this grammar. The normal value of 2k or 50k adds no value to minority shareholders. Tell us the number of Os that is expected to be used in dividing the profit made by the company to arrive at what ever Eps.
In simple English what will be IB OS after this excise.

Short answer: The outstanding shares (OS) are now 161,172,395,100 (6 new shares for every 1 of the existing 26,862,065,850 shares).

Long answer: It started with the Extraordinary General Meeting (EGM) on February 12, where they reduced the share capital from the original N13,431,032,925 at a nominal value of 50 kobo per share to N537,241,317 at a nominal value of 2 kobo per share. Effectively, this reduced the share capital.

Then, at the EGM on April 15, they approved a loan of $379.9 million from the major shareholder, AB InBev Nigeria Holdings BV (about 78% ownership), which was used to clear another previous loan from Citibank Abu Dhabi.

The positive aspect is that this current loan is being converted to equity. AB InBev Nigeria Holdings BV will utilize it for their share of the rights issue.

Some of my observations: There was a share capital reduction of approximately N10.2 billion. This money, in addition to the new additional share premium (N126 billion) from minority shareholders, can be utilized to either reduce debt or improve operations.

Even though existing shareholders will maintain their share of the pie if they all participate in the rights issue, the share value has been diluted for new incoming shareholders.

Both the 2023 and 2022 audited financials have the same issue: Administrative expenses and marketing and distribution expenses wipe out the gross profit.

Additionally, there were N55 billion in exchange losses.

Until they can improve efficiency, I don't foresee significant upward movement or profitability.

This share devaluation will not help matters either.

I dey talk my own as I see am, just like you. No sugar coating or partia

ositadima1:
I did a quick back-of-the-envelope analysis based on worse-case scenarios:

In 2023, Zenith made a Profit After Tax (PAT) of 679 billion Naira at 21.5 Earnings Per Share (EPS), with an outstanding share count (OS) of 31 billion.

Checking the 2023 statement of profit and loss on page 40, I found these lines questionable: "Trading gains" at 566.9 billion Naira and "Other operating income" at 242.5 billion Naira, both explained in more detail in Notes 10 and 11 respectively. These two lines have significantly increased from the 2022 figures, and they are both tied to the Naira devaluation. As a result, I can reasonably assume that the 2024 figures may not be as high if the Naira retraces or maintains its current stability.

So, I have discounted for the 2024 figures, and if all goes well, I estimate the 2024 PAT to be around 379 billion Naira. (Note that "Interest and similar income" more than doubled from the previous year, but I have chosen to leave it as is, as I expect the reversion to the mean to be canceled out by growth.)

If the additional OS reaches 12 billion (which I believe will be needed to raise an additional 300 billion Naira at 25 Naira per share), then the 2024 EPS would drop to 8.6. If they add 25 billion new shares instead, the EPS would drop to 6.6. If they do nothing, I expect the EPS to settle at 12.

In conclusion, in all scenarios, and with things going normally, they should be able to maintain the 4 Naira dividend (4.5 to 5 Naira is even more possible), irrespective of the number of additional shares added.

My concern is what will happen in the meantime - will the share price reach 25 Naira? If so, would it be better to exit the investment and re-enter at a better time, even if it means forgoing the 4 Naira dividend?

Oga Agba, I need your input.

Zenith has hit support at around 31, and the next support seems to be in the 25-26.5 region. Buying here for short-term gains looks good, with the potential to make 10 to 15%. I would prefer to use half of the bankroll (money management) for the current levels, and the other half at the 25-26.5 region if it ever reaches there.

nairalanda1:
They actually massively liberalized their makert and allowed free enterprise run through

Meanwhile, we do subsides on petrrol and power, and by extension limit the abilty of the sector to grow and to provide the power and the energy needed to fuel industrial growth and development.

You cannot use subsides to starve sectors of profit, that guarantee energy....and expect growth.

(Note that I haven't mentioned we don't need to fight corruption).

As I mentioned earlier, a balanced and phased approach will cause less friction. Abruptly removing all subsidies and leaving companies and consumers entirely to free market forces is not a clever approach. Look at what is happening, and it is going to get worse.

You have officially removed subsidies, but you are still paying them behind the scenes because abandoning them altogether will result in total anarchy. Labor is not backing down on their demand for higher wages now, and the savings from the hasty subsidy removal will likely be wiped out.

Nobody is arguing that subsidies are a bad idea in the long term; how a policy is implemented is more important than the policy itself.

Get your facts right, information is cheap.