₦airaland Forum

People are queued at 150, but there’s no supply. What’s happening?

ositadima1:
I saw the volume and how the offers were cleared for the NGXGroup stock, so I took a gamble. Let’s see if it pays off. Anybody with me?

I’m already up 10% with a full bid. Nawao, the gamble has paid off so far. Should I sell or hold for another day?

Keep in mind, this was purely speculative, I have no metrics behind it.

I saw the volume and how the offers were cleared for the NGXGroup stock, so I took a gamble. Let’s see if it pays off. Anybody with me?

Iran has struck Saudi Aramco facility, the war appears to be spiraling out of control. Dangote might also see heavy cash flows as markets react.

SonofElElyonRet:
Your problem is that you refuse to consider the origin of the conflict. You are bias. How many times in the past has Israel offered a 2 state solution that the Palestinians refused? Go check your history dude! Yasser Arafat refused and it's always been like that. They want to take over the whole of Israel. Do you even know what "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free" means Israel has been atracked several times by joint Arab forces (go check your history). The charter of Hamas calls for the destruction of the state of Israel. Even from childhood and in their schools, children are taught to kill Israelis. It's part of their curriculum. Indeed it is a command to kill Israelis but moderate Muslims do not follow this. It's in the Quoran! Many that follow this believe it is a divine command that they have an obligation to fulfill. You talk out of ignorance. Before the state of Israel there was no state of Palestine. The territories now forming Palestine were under Jordan and Egypt... The state of Israel is just a small strip of land and still they are being told they have no right to be there. Have you watched the video of the October 7 attack and how ordinary Palestinians celebrated. One attacker even called his mother and father to tell them he killed a jew and the parents said they were proud of him. Israel is facing an existential threat and Iran is the arrowhead and sponsor, fighting a proxy war through Hamas Hezbollah Houthis and Shiite militias in Syria, Iraq etc.. stop arguing blindly!

Alright, bro, let’s agree to disagree.

mikeapollo:
So to you, history of the place only starts from 1940s?
If the kingdoms or places e.g. Jerusalem, Hebron, Shiloh etc. were established and formed thousands of years before 1940, then why do you start the history from 1940s? Is it for convenience or running away from historical truth and facts?
Ask yourself if Kings like David, Solomon, Hezekiah etc. who ruled over the same land in contention did so in the 1940s or 1950s or 1967.

Lol, I’ve already answered you. Those biblical places and people are not the same as the Jews living there today. Many of them are not even direct descendants, similar to how white South Africans are not indigenous to South Africa.

But let me ask you this: would the core Yoruba states in Nigeria accept it if a group of Igbos, not even purely Igbo, but Igbos from outside Nigeria who have intermarried and have little direct connection, began to argue that, according to an ancient book, Kwara was their ancestral land? Do you think that kind of conflict would be resolved easily today?

NSEstudent:
You're aware Al Jazeera does the opposite of what the Western Media do? They exaggerate on their part while Western Media tilt towards the West.

One needs to filter those stuff and also view what actual people post on X to have a semblance of balance.

By the way, the issue between Israel and Palestine is something that needs fixing because until everlasting solution is reached which would benefit both nations, peace will continue to elude Middle East.

I think Palestinians are mostly the victims, never mind that Hamas, aided by Iran, are making Israel look innocent.

I don’t think so. Al Jazeera is largely unfiltered. They give space to Western perspectives as well as non-Western viewpoints. Both sides are given the opportunity to speak freely without heavy filtering.

I say this because I follow several of their programs, such as "Inside Story" and "The Take", among others.

mikeapollo:
Do you know whose interests Al Jazeera serves?

Nobody should start a war! If you do, what it brings is not good at all!

Again, you need to properly acquaint yourself with what is going on. This conflict is older than you; it didn’t start today. You have to go back to the 1940s, when the present-day Israelis were allocated land after the Second World War. Before that, there was no country called Israel. Britain and the United States, as major powers after the war, supported the creation of the state of Israel, partly referencing biblical claims that Jerusalem was a Jewish city. At the time, however, the land was largely populated by Arabs and Palestinians.

Initially, there were proposals and agreements involving Arab leaders, but conflict escalated as Israel expanded beyond the land allocated under early plans, with strong backing from the United States. From there, the broader conflict developed into what we see today.

It’s also important to understand that modern Israelis come from diverse backgrounds. Many Jewish people who migrated to the region were from Europe origins and other parts of the world (once you identify with Judaism), not solely from the ancient communities described in biblical narratives.

This is only a brief summary. You should take time to study the history in depth and examine multiple credible sources before forming firm conclusions.

Streetinvestor2:
The government of your country is doing that most times in SE and nobody is talking

Please show me proof, at least links to news articles, that the government is actively killing civilians in southeastern Nigeria.

mikeapollo:
I would takes these figures (50,000; 60,000; 70,000 etc.) more serious when they break them down into the exact number of terrorists killed and civilians who have died. Maybe majority of the dead are terrorists and armed combatants but might have been lumped together to create a narrative.

That’s exactly why you shouldn’t form strong opinions until you’ve seen the full picture. I’ve been following Al Jazeera’s podcast almost daily. Almost every day, they report at least five civilians killed, mostly women and children. They’ve reported journalists being killed, members of the WHO affected, and even people lined up to collect food and water.

I can’t do the research for you, and I can’t convince you of anything. Only you can decide to seek the truth when you’re ready.

SonofElElyonRet:
Sad but when you seek the annihilation of the state of Israel and openly declare and pursue it (October 7), Israel will also lose all sense of morality in it's battle for survival.. they are facing an existential threat.. how about first accepting their right to exist?
Israel has faced genocidal attacks from Haman, Roman empire, Hitler and now some quoting the Quoran to pursue the killing of Jews

Why do people hold strong opinions about things they don’t fully understand? Who is actually trying to survive here?

Do you realize that Palestinians are close to being wiped out? Israel has taken their land, killed many of them, and controls what goes in and out. Have you looked at what the map of present-day Palestine actually looks like?

You should take time to understand what is really happening. The Bible is not a detailed history book; much of it is narrative meant to teach moral lessons. Also, try including non-Western media sources once in a while if you genuinely want a fuller picture.

SonofElElyonRet:
Alive where? He's with his predecessor in the nethermost part of hell

My brother, no be by gragra. At the time the post was made, the man wasn’t dead, and he still isn’t. If you’re claiming otherwise, show credible proof from reputable sources such as BBC, CNN, or Al Jazeera.

nosa2:
The people of gaza voted for Hamas knowing fully well that Hamas planned to attack Isreal. They are not innocent.

Votes have consequences.

Lol, how and where was this vote cast? So if Tinubu and his government decide to commit crimes, would it be justified in your eyes to kill innocent people on the street? Isn’t that delusional?

Mpeace:
Layer 1 is down already. This war is absolutely unfair.

Lol, very much alive. Be cautious about where you get your information from, there’s too much propaganda and disinformation circulating.

nosa2:
So long as the leaders that killed protesters to stay in power are no longer alive to see the end I am happy

That is fair, but...

Israel has killed over 50,000 innocent Palestinians in the recent wars, mostly women and children. A recent incident involved Israeli soldiers shooting a young boy and watching him bleed to death over several minutes; the report is still on the BBC website. How do you feel about that?

zendi:
You no go kee pesin.

That is why the incoming next layer wants to talk to Trump first, before sitting on the seat.

War bad.
Life no get duplicate.

Do you realize they were in the middle of negotiations? They were supposed to continue on Monday before the U.S. and Israel began their attack. How do you expect Iran to ask for a ceasefire when Israel does not honor its word?

I think it will last for weeks. The U.S. and Israel underestimated the regime’s flexibility; the plan appeared to be a quick overthrow of the government. Israel alone has fired more than 2,000 missiles at Iran in just two days, roughly the number it previously fired over several weeks. The U.S. has reportedly launched about 900, aiming to neutralize Iran’s military quickly. That did not happen. Iran is still launching heavy missile attacks at Israel.

I agree that Iran has suffered serious damage, but the regime is very much alive and operational. This war is likely to continue. Israel will probably keep pressing until it reaches its limits, after which it may use indirect channels to move toward a ceasefire. So I expect it to last at least another week or more.

Oil is heading to $90-100 a barrel

Lol, them never see something like this before. Everybody dey collect, all the Arab countries where US base dey, them collect wotowoto. Even far away Cyprus collect two bombs. US don dey bleed as them lose soldiers. Israel dey collect too.

Dis one na clear trouble wey USA and Israel go find themselves. Talks wey dey go on, them never conclude, them begin dey attack. On top of that, bomb enter children school kill more than 85 girls.

Iran dey try sha. Make we see how e go go.

unite4real:
The results is not out. I don't even think it can be N45 for the FY when 9 months 2025 was already almost N44

I may be wrong, but I think he is referring to dividends. EPS can, of course be higher.

Princkez:
DANGCEM #45

As predicted...

Using my Python Monte Carlo script, the estimated fair value ranges between ₦870 and ₦1,165. This is based on a purely generic model; once the full financial statements are released, we can conduct a more detailed analysis.

Willie2015:
Absolutely on point
Trading212 pay me interest on my unused fund...

That is logical nah.

I had some funds sitting with Morgan for more than two months because I was busy at the time. That money did not generate a single kobo in interest, whereas my FCMB account would have earned over 1% interest by the end of the month.

Mankind2024:
"Remember say na dem (your stockbrokers) dey maintain your shares account for you—not CSCS directly. CSCS na the central depository wey hold the electronic records for everybody, but e no dey charge retail investors ongoing custody or maintenance fees like that (dem get fees for custodians/institutions, but not everyday retail folks).
Dem brokers fit don borrow this custody fee idea from foreign jurisdictions where e dey rampant—e.g., many global markets (US, Europe, etc.) get annual custody/safekeeping fees (0.1–0.3% of assets or flat charges) wey brokers or custodians collect for holding securities long-term. Na one way dem dey make money beyond commissions.
If dem push am here as 'pre-condition' for recapitalization compliance, e go add extra cost wey fit discourage buy-and-hold investors. Abeg SEC, make e no happen, long-term investing suppose cheap, no be penalized!

I don’t think they maintain my stock account at all. They simply serve as an interface to the trading floor; all shares are domiciled with CSCS. Their primary role is to facilitate access to the CSCS trading system.

There are, however, some brokers who actively manage your investments, you just deposit funds and they decide what to buy and where to invest. Those ones already charge custody or management fees; that’s nothing new.

Mankind2024:
I heard a beer parlour rumour yesterday while in Kuje that Nigerian stockbrokers are proposing a custody fee for holding clients' assets on their platforms.
May this never be approved by the SEC!
It would add yet another layer of costs for retail investors already dealing with brokerage commissions, NGX/CSCS/SEC fees, stamp duty, etc.
Most reputable brokers in Nigeria don't currently charge ongoing custody or account maintenance fees for standard retail accounts. Introducing this could discourage long-term holding and hurt market participation.
Anyone else hearing this, or is it just talk?

Lol, custody of what? Have you not been hearing all the discussions about CSCS domiciling your shares? The only thing they actually hold for you is the cash in your account waiting to be deployed, or the proceeds from your sales. Honestly, they should even be paying you interest, since that money generates interest for them.

stokfrick:
How about the persistent complaints about withdrawal delays

What exactly are you asking? Be specific. Some people sell today and then request a withdrawal the next day, even though officially it takes T+2 days for funds to be processed. Simply saying there is a delay is too vague.

Also, there is a specific section within the app where you can initiate a withdrawal; you don’t need to contact them at all.

Hajicairo:
YES I did went through the purchase/sales notes, portfolio summary/balance from day of purchase to the day of the missing shares. I can also confirm that no cash transaction was made into my bank account as at today.

@awesomej has already explained that what Morgan Capital provides is only a dashboard. It is completely independent of your actual stock portfolio, which is domiciled with CSCS. Personally, I no longer rely on broker dashboards, open a CSCS login account and confirm what you truly own.

When you sell, Morgan Capital is simply an interface. The system reconciles your sell quantity against your holdings in your CSCS account, not against what appears on the Morgan dashboard.

Also, some people don’t know how to make clear and specific requests. Put yourself in customer care’s position, if someone keeps sending incoherent emails or messages with no clear objective, after a few responses you would likely start ignoring them as well.

emmanuelewumi:
They did not experience the forward looking statements made by Wale, which he effectively used to cajol shareholders for close to 20 years.

I’m not convinced I should believe you and Agba that the mill is fake, especially since neither of you has visited the farm.

You can dismiss it as AI-generated or a staged clip, yet it still carries more credibility than simply calling it a sham without presenting any proof.

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DOd1cEtCJB7/

Agbalowomeri:
How many more false claims do we need? I thought by now Ellah palmoil would have captured some market shares going by his claim of installing the mill by July last year.

If he truly claims that ELLAH plans to pay dividend then he comes across as another cowboy playing to defend a stock price

So, according to you, no mill was installed, is that what you’re saying?

Again, show proof that it was not installed and that all of this was a sham, not just your usual wisecracks.

HesInMe:
Although, to be fair, some of Ellah's assets have suddenly vanished. Remember the piggery that was supposed to be a big hit?

Poof!

How? Where did it go? Or is this just for the sake of argument? If the asset is no longer there, then show us proof.

If you observe my stance throughout this discussion, I have consistently focused on what is possible. Your position, however, seems to be a definitive claim that something is not possible, yet you have no direct proof to support that certainty.

Read all my posts on Ellah from day one. Aside from the issue of the land, my position has always been about potential and what could reasonably happen. I have never claimed to have visited the farms, so I cannot categorically deny or affirm anything as absolute fact.

Agbalowomeri:
Lol please where is the revenue coming from or what's the retained earnings abi my eyes don dirty again? Maybe they want to borrow money to pay dividend sha. Chuka is doing well with Wale's playbook. 15 years down the line investors still dey argue with confusion with Wale's forward looking statements. Now Chuka don learn

Have you gone to the farms to verify that there will be no revenue in the next twelve months, or are you just guessing? I don’t really understand. The fact that they haven’t generated considerable revenue up to now does not automatically mean they won’t generate revenue going forward.

At the very least, you have no tangible evidence that they did not cultivate this year(last year) for harvest next year(this year). But if you do, please share it with us.

My point is that he has made a claim, and we cannot falsify it unless you have personally been to the farms and confirmed that the land is all bush and that the costs were being used for personal enrichment.

mikeapollo:
I think he was referring to possible negative equity position of the company.

Does negative equity stop a company from paying dividends?

Also, Ellah does not have negative equity, please go through the unaudited financial statements again. What they have is negative retained earnings, which is a component of equity, but overall shareholders’ equity is still positive.

They do have interest-bearing debt of ₦372.3 million, which is relatively small compared to their total assets.

Agbalowomeri:
Pay dividend from where o

The over 22,000 hectares in Ellah’s possession, is it all just bush? Even if they cultivated cassava on only half of it, they should be able to pay a dividend. Or do you think the land is lying completely fallow? What do you think they’ve been doing with the huge expenses they’ve recorded, are they just partying with the money?

So if you can’t account for any of that, what makes you think you have the insight to question the source of the dividends?

robobo:
Please share

Sunrisepebble:
I think so too. I’ve used an EV/Ebitda of 7x for the FY result which is what the Chinese company used to value the business when they bought it.
Don’t forget the knew capacity coming onstream though, an extra 3.5mt per annum. I’ve heard they’ve almost completed it so that should drive growth very soon, as well as the Chinese’ operational efficiency.

Revenue hit ₦1.066 trillion, up 53% year-on-year. Normalized EBIT came to ₦387.9 billion at a 36.4% margin, EBITDA was ₦422.7 billion (39.6% margin), and profit after tax was ₦273.1 billion. The company is sitting on ₦388 billion in cash against only ₦166 billion in borrowings, a net cash position of ₦222 billion, and has proposed a ₦6/share dividend, five times last year's payout. These are not the numbers of a struggling cement company.

To value WAPCO properly I used a Damodaran-aligned DCF, which means starting from what the business actually earns operationally rather than headline profit. After stripping out non-recurring other income, the PPE impairment reversal, and the ₦30.2 billion finance income earned on cash deposits (which I account for separately), normalized NOPAT, net operating profit after the 33.6% effective tax rate, comes to ₦257.5 billion. The next step is invested capital. Lafarge Africa runs with structurally negative working capital of ₦103 billion, meaning customers pay before the company settles its suppliers. Combined with PPE of ₦448.6 billion, total invested capital is ₦347.1 billion. Dividing NOPAT by invested capital gives a Return on Invested Capital of 74.2%, which was 75.1% in 2024. For context, most global cement companies operate at 10–20% ROIC. Every naira reinvested in this business creates significant value.

For the discount rate, I used a WACC of 25.6%, built from a risk-free rate of 18.5% (Nigerian T-Bill yield), Nigeria's equity risk premium of 10.5% (Damodaran), and an unlevered cement sector beta of 0.72. The company's near-zero leverage keeps WACC close to the cost of equity. This is a high discount rate but it reflects the Nigerian macro reality, not a criticism of the business.

Free cash flow to the firm in 2025 was ₦88.1 billion on a reported basis, suppressed by a ₦129.6 billion working capital absorption as rapid revenue growth caused inventories and receivables to balloon. Normalized for a more sustainable working capital trajectory, FCFF is approximately ₦187.8 billion or ₦11.65 per share. Running a three-phase DCF on conservative assumptions, revenue growing at 20–25% decaying to 5% terminal growth, EBIT margins compressing gradually from 37% to 30%, produced an initial intrinsic value of approximately ₦123.5 per share (Base Case). Against the current market price of ₦210, that initial model flagged the stock as roughly 41% overvalued.

However, two factors I subsequently incorporated change the picture materially. The first is the near-complete 3.5 million tonne capacity expansion. Against current installed capacity of ~10.5mt, this is a 33% increase in one move. At a conservative 60% utilisation in year one, that's 2.1mt of incremental volume adding approximately ₦210 billion in revenue, rising to ₦300 billion annually at 80% utilisation from year two. This alone shifts 2026 revenue growth from a modelled 20% to approximately 38%. The second factor is Huaxin Building Materials, the new 83.81% Chinese owner who completed their acquisition from Holcim in 2025. Huaxin runs domestic operations at EBITDA margins of 35–45% and their operational playbook, clinker optimization, fuel switching, procurement centralization, conservatively adds 2–3 percentage points of EBIT margin over the next two to three years. On ₦1.5 trillion of 2027 revenue, 2pp of margin improvement alone is ₦30 billion of additional annual NOPAT.

Incorporating both factors into the revised model, the bear case (capacity delayed, margins revert to 30%) gives ₦105–₦120 per share. The base case (capacity online H1 2026, margins holding at 37–40%, Huaxin delivering modest efficiency gains) gives ₦185–₦210 per share. The bull case (full ramp, Huaxin pushes margins toward 42%) gives ₦260–₦310 per share. At ₦210, WAPCO is sitting at the top of the base case and the entry point of the bull case, a completely different conclusion from the initial overvaluation call.

The honest assessment is this: the business is genuinely exceptional, ₦210 is a fair price for it, and the upside to ₦260–₦310 is credible without heroic assumptions. But three risks deserve monitoring. The ₦96.6 billion dividend proposal raises the question of whether Huaxin intends to grow the business or extract cash, if it's the latter, the growth thesis weakens. Naira depreciation remains a structural risk given USD-linked input costs in energy and clinker. And Dangote and BUA will not ignore a 3.5mt capacity addition from a competitor without a pricing response. The first real read on how this plays out will be Q1 2026 results, specifically utilization rates on the new line. If that comes in at or above 60%, the bull case becomes the base case and ₦210 will look cheap in hindsight.