₦airaland Forum

Ijoh:
Wike is bringing a PDP Governoship candidate so the news is fake.

dvdwed:
Ondo, Oyo, Rivers, Abia votes gone like that.



Atiku is playing with fire.

dmill:
From which source give that breaking news Oga

Trinitycian:
Stop wailing. Even those defecting to APC go still vote Atiku. They join APC to support their local candidates, not a fake Yoruba Muslim.

Meanwhile, gales of defections from APC to PDP happen EVERY DAY. About 5 different cases were reported yesterday on NL.

ufotunang:
The law is too bad and harsh... taking away ones means of earning a living...that is wickedness..and how do you expect this people to survive in this hard economy when their means of earning a living has been taken away

TOPCRUISE:
I support the law and I support Jandor's position on the law as well. He did the right thing by visiting the victims of such law and that is what a leader is supposed to do. We are in a democracy. And his views must be respected

TOPCRUISE:
This is obviously the first time we have seen traffic offenders serve jail term for traffic offence and their vehicles confiscated and sold.
We can now see reason why a traffic offender will take the wisest decision of taking to his heels and leave his only source of livelihood behind when he gets targeted by traffic officials or even sanwoolu.
We have read in this forum where there's no sign indicating one way in some Lagos roads like oworonshoki. And every time people expend their money and time to put one, traffic Officers stationed there will not only remove them but will clamp down on JJCS.
Since LASG has opened the floor for critical comments, Jandor only expressed himself by been critical on government decision.

Agboriotejoye:
1. Buhari won some of those places because he was contesting against a fellow northener. With Obi on the ballot and MM ticket of APC, you can kiss all those places bye bye. ANAP polls show Tinubu got a massive 0 in SE. That is why I am telling you some of the Buhari votes in SE will go to Obi. Obi will affect both Atiku and Tinubu in SE/SS. Tinubu can and will most likely lose OUk, Dave and even Hope's LG. BVAS has thrown rigging out the window.

2. Go and find out very well. Kwankwaso's followers voted Buhari in 2019. Kwankwaso said it after the presidential when Ganduje was bragging about the results. It reflected in the guber when Ganduje actually lost. Those votes Buhari got in Kano, a substantial portion will shift to Kwankwaso and a good number too to Atiku via the shekarau effect. In Kano, only shekarau can stand up to Kwankwaso. Ganduje does not have any clout. He benefited from the Buhari tsunami of 2015 and Kwankwaso's support. He actually lost in 2019 guber!! PDP now has Shekarau and the Abacha family in Kano so they're not dead as you claim. El-Rufai has never vied for nor won any election before 2015 and Kd was a strong PDP state before then. He even said it that he wasn't thinking of running for guber till Buhari asked him to. El-Rufai does not have the clout you think he does. He's just like Wike. A lot of mouth action and little influence. His son was even praising Atiku recently on Twitter while claiming the British left the North at the top of the political ladder in Nigeria. He can't and shouldn't be trusted by any Southerner especially if he doesn't have any interest to gain.

3. APC will win Enugu if they zone their presidential candidate to SE. Who knew LP before now in SE. But LP is already displacing PDP in its traditional stronghold all because of Obi's candidacy. Never underestimate the power of identity in politics. NE will always prefer presidency to Vice. NE has six states. You're basing your analysis on only three forgetting the remaining three. Taraba will not vote a MM ticket for example because they are mainly Christian and is a PDP stronghold while bauchi will definitely queue behind a northern ticket as usual. Tinubu went to Gombe yesterday. Go and listen to what he said.
4. You're making a fatal mistake by comparing voting trends in US with that of Nigeria. Voting sentiments in Nigeria have to do with ethnicity, religion, identity etc. It is unlike US where the parties are like a religion with clear ideologies and manifestos which the people easily identify with. The Democrat controlled states are states that have liberal ideologies like abortion rights, high taxes, environmental, minority rights and social support.
Republican states are more Conservative in ideologies. They promise lower taxes, strong immigration policies, smaller governments, traditional family views and are more religious inclined.
In Nigeria, parties are not driven by ideology. That's why our politicians basically defect once a certain party does not favor them. What exactly does APC stand for? What about PDP? How's LP different from them? So if a presidential candidate that's a lagosian should emerge from PDP against a notherner in APC for example, you can be sure PDP will win presidential at least in Lagos. Are you aware Jonathan beat Ribadu of ACN in 2011 in Lagos? What about 2007? Yaradua beat Atiku of AC in same Lagos. Talk less of a Lagosian. Our politics is not like US politics bro. Demographics play an important part in US politics too but identity is not foremost there like it is here.

VladimirPutiin:
Nigeria first university which is the university of Ibadan is beautiful also.

slawomir:
Damnnn niggarrrr
How wish na Righteousness2 this masquerade flog like this na i for too get joy

Agboriotejoye:
1. Are you sure there's nothing like Yoruba xtian? You've not thought about why votes in SW are usually split. You think it's because of foreigners? While it's true that Yoruba tend to downplay religion in politics, extremism is usually frowned upon. MM ticket is an extremist ticket and that's why you see a good number of influential pastors from the West speaking up against it. But I won't say more than that. The results will show who is right.
2. I agree that Atiku has more to lose based on events in SE. But Tinubu is also a greater loser. Like I told you, Buhari got 25% in 2019 from 3 or 4 SE states. With Obi on the ballot and his MM ticket, Tinubu can kiss those 25% goodbye. All this talk of umahi and hope are castles in the air. They won't do jack when it's showtime. Rigging which is the major instrument they can use will be tougher with BVAS.
3. I find it interesting you surrender Kano to Kwankwaso and think Tinubu will come second after him. Picture it. Those who will vote Kwankwaso, did they vote Buhari in 2019 or Atiku? If Kwankwaso wins Kano, it's a major loss for APC and bet it with me that whoever wins Kano, PDP will come second if not first.
Buhari is tired. But besides that, don't expect notherners to listen to someone who is on his way out of office. He's still very popular in the North no doubt but his popularity is basically because he is perceived to represent northern interest, frugal and most importantly a very good Muslim. Tinubu does not fit into any of those so if you think notherners will vote for him simply because Buhari asked them to, you must have underestimated the political understanding of notherners. El-Rufai and Ganduje are overrated. They have never won anything election of their own accord save for Sai Chanji that swept them into office in 2015.
4. It is funny you actually think Shettima will make Atiku lose NE. That's very funny. Let's wait and see. Atiku is a notherner. Just because they prefer another notherner to him does not mean they hate him or will prefer an outsider to him. He's poised to harvest votes in the North like he's never done. Watch and see.
Wike does not have critical elements of PDP in Rivers behind him. Former govs, senators, House members are not on his side like you think. In fact, I wager that even if Obi wins Rivers, Atiku will still come a close second. Anyways, Rivers did not deliver votes in 2019 like Delta and Akwa Ibom did. Total votes was just a little above 500k. That's a poor return for a state with the sixth voting population. If that repeats itself in 2023, all of Wike's noise will be inconsequential ultimately.

M4A1carbine:
I dont give lectures...deduce events as they unfold...

M4A1carbine:
By the Time the "Muguuu" sees that he is inconsequential...he will forfeit the presidency and claim southern solidarity. Or he will collapse his "so called propaganda structure" and support the same Atiku , they called Akthiefku....

[b]Mark this ...
[/b]

Ohaozara:
This is no arrangee brother. Anyichuks is a formidable force and all the Ebonyi PDP members are going to que behind him. Umahi stepped on so many toes politically (though his performance was apt) and the likes of Anyim Pius, Sam Egwu, The Odefa family even Ogba himself will work against him. Were you in Enugu congress where he worked against Ali Odefa, the preferred candidate in favour of his younger brother? Were you in Ugwulangwu rally where he slapped Odefa, a very big name in Ebonyi politics? I don't want to talk about our father, Anyim Pius. Even Chiboy (Chinedu Oga) will not work with him, unless you don't know what happened between him and Umahi in 2014. Bro all these people are going to work against Umahi and Nwifuru does not have the political clout to face them

Agboriotejoye:
Lol. I don't know why people start to refer to mixed faith marriage in a bid to defend same faith ticket. How it take correlate? Look, most SW Christians are Pentecostals and while they have no problem with a Muslim emerging President, they surely will have a problem with a ticket that relegates Christians. For example, do you realize the CAN President who stood against Muslim Muslim ticket is Ayokunle a Yoruba? Same with PFN, the Chair is Wale Oke, Yoruba as well. In fact, PFN is majorly Yoruba. Note also that Abioye of winners has also spoken against it. What I'm pointing out to you is that an extreme ticket will not be easily taken among SW Pentecostals. They have no problem with Tinubu a Muslim running but picking a Muslim Vice from the North will not sit well with them. That's why you see even Tinubu has been pushing that narrative on Muslim Muslim should be downplayed because he knows how it will affect SW voting pattern.
Secondly, you are right that APC can never win SE but you seem to forget they have been making decent progress in the region. Now, they are set to lose all that modest progress with the Muslim Muslim. If 25% is what they are after in SE/SS, Muslim Muslim makes it more difficult
Lastly, a southerner has never defeated a northerner in the North. Kwankwaso does not have the spread of PDP in the north which makes Atiku the frontline Northern candidate. Besides, it is obvious Kwankwaso has lost steam. But aside that, Kwankwaso will eat into APC stronghold which is the NW where they have 6 out of the 7 states and where Buhari won all 7 states in 2019. Any progress Atiku makes in the NW is a plus for him just as any progress by Kwankwaso is a minus for Tinubu's APC.
True @ your last statement

Agboriotejoye:
Lol @Atiku with Obi's mask. Lemme first of all make clear to you that I prefer an Obi presidency. I believe in terms of turn, it's the turn of the SE and also if it's coming South, it should be a southern Christian. Most importantly, a Muslim Muslim ticket is a no no for me. Now, I'm a realist and I know that as things stand today, Obi cannot win the presidential election. That's because his party does not have the spread. Even if unlikely as it is, he wins the majority votes, it will be difficult for him to get 25% in 24 states as things stand now.
1. Some parts of your analysis are true. Tinubu is poised to get more votes in SW than Buhari ever had. But his Muslim Muslim ticket will do him harm in that zone. Yoruba Christians, especially the Pentecostals will definitely be against that ticket. A good number of them will tilt towards Obi definitely, but also, there are those who believe in Atiku and are part of the PDP machinery. While I'm not saying categorically that Atiku will win any state in the SW (I actually think he won't) but I think he'll do well in some states.
2. Obi's votes in the SW and Christian North will also come from people who voted Buhari in 2015 and 2019 too. We all seem to forget that a certain Pastor Osinbajo was running mate to Buhari and it helped to swell his votes among Pentecostals. Such people will vote Obi or Atiku now and rail against a Muslim Muslim ticket definitely. So Obi is not only inheriting Atiku's votes alone but also some of Buhari's. As a matter of fact, I think the reason Tinubu's machinery have railed against Obi recently us because he represents a viable alternative to the Muslim Muslim ticket. Why do you think he had been visiting churches? Is that move against Atiku or Tinubu?
Forget Rivers. PDP will still win Rivers. The margin may not be as you expect but don't forget Rivers did more poorly than Akwa Ibom and Delta in overall votes in 2019. Go and check the figures.
As for the North, forget. Atiku is winning the North solidly. Forget kwankwaso. He even seems tired already. Nothing favors him in the North. Only his ethnocentrism and most champions of ethnocentrism in the North have realised from Buhari's experiment that you need at least one region in there South to win. In any case, Kwankwaso will affect APC more than PDP in the North. The two states where he has the most influence are states APC won with wide margin in 2019. He even said it that his kwankwassiya voted Buhari in 2019. So this votes are actually for APC not PDP.
As for SS and SE, PDP will still do well in those areas. As a matter of fact, APC is poised to perform more poorly than they did in 2019 in those zones due to the Muslim Muslim ticket and the general belief that Tinubu betrayed them in 2015. So I wager APC coming third anywhere LP wins because PDP will either come first or second in those two zones.
So, Obi will affect both PDP and APC in those zones again. Those who are of APC but against Muslim Muslim ticket will vote for Obi same as those who believe it's the South's turn.
Overall, as things stand today, PDP has the biggest spread in all the regions unlike APC which is dead in SS/SE zones, LP nowhere in NW/NE zones.

Agboriotejoye:
Hahahaha. Atiku cannot win anywhere in the South? Do you really believe that?
At least let's talk about Delta, Akwa Ibom and Edo states. What about Oyo and Ondo in SW? You're a clown. If Atiku wins the North, it's game over for Tinubu because APC did not win any states in SE/SS and things are looking like they'll remain the same. Now out of 11 states that make up both regions, if LP wins 5 and PDP wins six, and LP or PDP trades second in all states they come first, whatever advantage Tinubu is bringing from SW will be toppled. SE/SS have cumulatively more votes than SW and they sure are not voting for a Muslim Muslim ticket!
Besides, there are some states Buhari either won in 2015 or lost but stayed close in 2019 like Adamawa, Benue, Plateau etc where Atiku will win by very large margins. Tinubu will need to cover those large margins with same SW votes. You see how the permutation is now?

M4A1carbine:
[b]Atiku beat BUHARI "blue-black"....BUHARI used his power of incumbency to retain his seat and presidency.

For me Personally...i want Nigeria to Break, so that everybody will go "solo"

So stop comparing, events of yesterday with what is obtainable now.

APC's last "tsunami movement" was BUHARI. Tinubu doesn't have that "clout", even in his SW...he cant sweep the votes convincingly.

So wake up.[/b]So youbstill believe that Atiku won Buhari till now. This is 2023 already bro.
In all , I say never to Northerner ruling us again in 2023.


Lokan south 2023.

M4A1carbine:
So for your Mind you feel say APC get mouth for Sokoto??

I noticed you ask, some "slightly intelligent" questions....trying to "gauge" the voting strengths of other candidates except yours. (Tinubu)

Its pertinent to tell you this, so you dont disgrace yourself further.

At the rate things are going...Tinubu will collapse his structure, into a Peter Obi..or Atiku Political movement.

This is a FACT that stares you guyz in the face constantly...But the disgrace is what you are afraid of.

This race is between ATIKU and Peter Obi....all that Southern Nonsense rants , was because you guyz NEVER saw Peter Obi coming.

But understand this and know peace...Thiefnubuu can NEVER be President...He is just too toxic and useless.

BigBashiru:
One of my biggest regrets is living outside Nigeria...

Ebubu:
it was not odii who dislodged ogba for crying out loud it was umahi to ensure odii emerges. ogba would have been a bigger threat to win . peacecore which political connection odii has to pull such string ? a newbie in politics without contacts