₦airaland Forum

Agbalowomeri:
Access go report loss for this year end result

It is very wrong for you to present your opinion as fact.
It would have been better if you said access might report loss.

BabsO2:
Those invested in Oando gather here.
I have the following NAV valuation based on reserves computed as follows
Company NAV per Share
Oando N429
Seplat N 8,980
Aradel N997

Oando is at a deep discount based on reasons already discussed upandan here. Most especially will its turnaround succeed in view of its debt over load. This NAV of N429 is the value those lending money to Oando see and are taking a good cut of. And the market has discounted it to current price of N39 to reflect its high risk turnaround profile.

As low margin revenues from trading goes down, will management succeed in transforming Oando into
👉 A leaner upstream-focused energy company
👉 With stronger balance sheet
👉 With sustainable free cash flow
👉 With higher reserve monetisation efficiency
And work towards its NAV based on reserves?

If crude oil were to be by reserve, Venezuela would be the richest country in the world

mikeapollo:
Yes, the company paid off the equity of some shareholders (who took the company to court) and retrieved the shares from them

How much was OandO share price when the company retrieved the share and paid some shareholders off??

ositadima1:
Total shares were about 12 billion. Following agreements with a major shareholder, roughly 4 billion shares were returned to the company, likely in exchange for outstanding debt owed to Oando at the group level. My understanding is that the arrangement involved surrendering an equivalent equity stake to settle debts that were already considered impaired.

Under this structure, those shares are being redistributed to minority shareholders in stages, effectively converting the debt into equity. Until all of these shares are fully reissued, EPS is calculated based on the active shares in circulation, not the total issued share capital.

Does this make sense? It’s giving me a headache too. lol

It is making sense.
Those redistributed shares might not be free after all.

ositadima1:
Remember the agreement between Oando and Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP). As part of that arrangement, OODP returned roughly 4 billion shares in exchange for outstanding debt. Those shares are now being re-circulated to minority shareholders in tranches. As a result, based on the number of shares that have so far been redistributed, only about 8 billion shares are currently active, while the remainder are held as treasury shares and therefore excluded from the EPS calculation until they are subsequently reissued.

Regarding production, output appears to be in the range of 30,000–40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) based on publicly available information.

Shouldn't the exchange of share for debt lead to improvement in equity.
Why should this result in extra burden for shareholders with a worsening negative equity position?

iskalamong:
Please see the message below:



Cheers!

Iskalamong!


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You mean the company paid 325b for 4.29b of its own shares?

iskalamong:
They repurchased treasury shares. This reduced their shares outstanding.

Iskalamong!

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.

Which one is repurchase treasury shares?

ositadima1:
A quick look at Oando PLC’s FY2025 results. The company reported profit of approximately ₦241 billion, only about ₦50 billion, roughly 20%, was attributable to core operating activities. The bulk of earnings came from non-operational sources such as impairment reversals, finance income, and FX or tax-related adjustments, all of which are volatile and mostly non-recurring.

Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion. Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares, while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

To maintain a clean balance sheet, one option is to increase operating profit by more than fourfold, or alternatively to restructure the capital structure by converting debt into equity. The first is difficult but potentially achievable if the company can significantly reduce operating expenses. The second is easier to execute and could benefit investors over the long term, as an annual interest burden of around ₦200 billion is substantial to sustain.

eps was calculated using 8.152b instead of 12b.
Any idea how they arrived at this?
What is their output of crude oil (boe) now?

K

Sunrisepebble:
I can confirm he has been buying GTB but not sure if it’s for merger purposes

He might be positioning himself to take over GTB but I don't think a merger between FIRSTHOLDCO and GTB will fly.

Coolcash1:
CWG fair price is N70.

Don’t focus on short term headwinds just look at long term. The business model remains very solid, well positioned to benefit from government’s digital economy transformation and broadband growth.

Therefore, when the weak hands are shakened out refuse to sell your holding cheap and buy back at expensive price later or now trying to catch a moving train.

Ire o.

Oga, which valuation method did you use to arrive at N70 fair price for CWG?

Agbalowomeri:
Seems we've all slept on Custodian
I didn't believe they would maintain that growth

And to think that the MD spent over N3b in December to purchase about 87 million units of the company shares.

nosa2:
I have EPS of N2.22

Don't know where the 3.2 was coming from.
N2.2 is the correct eps

Agbalowomeri:
Na Tony's UBA started that bs. It's either company's shares have changed or not. Which one be weighted average. Will you pay dividends with weighting?

It is a way to mislead the unsuspecting public.
People should take extra care to do most of these calculations by themselves.
Weighted average rubbish.

Raider76:
Please anything on FIRSTHOLDCO? Some people must have seen the results going by the sharp loss today after a gain yesterday.

Provisioning for loan loss done finish FIRSTHOLDCO

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45913_AUSTIN_LAZ_AND_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

No wonder,the owner himself was actively selling to run away.

emmanuelewumi:
Summary of Nahco result for 2025


Revenue N65.2 billion
Gross profit N38.6 billion

Operating profit N24.8 billion

Earnings Before Interest and Taxes N26.4 billion

Profit after tax N18 billion

Market Capitalization N215 billion

Enterprise Value N210 billion

Stock price N110

Equity N26.5 billion

Debt N6.1 billion

Cash N11.2 billion

Capital expenses N1.3 billion

Capital employed N31.3 billion

Total Asset N53.9 billion

Net Operating cash flow N17.7 billion

Free Cash Flow N16.4 billion

Return on Equity 68%

Return on Capital Employed 85%

Cash Flow Return on Investment 56.5%

Gross Profit/Total Asset 71.6%


Working Capital N7.3 billion

Net profit margin 27.6%

Operating Profit margin 38%

EBIT margin 40.5%

Gross margin 59%

Operating cash flow margin 27%

Free Cash Flow margin 25%

Capex/Sales 2%

Capex/OCF 7.5%

Price Earning ratio 11.9

EV/EBIT 7.9

Good company and good result.
Growth though is slowing down.
They did less business and made less profit in q4 2025 compared to q4 2024

nosa2:
Please all this my talk of market crash is extremely premature oh!

Nigerian economy is just resuming growth. Even though it seems prices have risen, earnings have risen to justify the new prices. Stanbic for example released result today and despite the recent run up in prices the stock is trading with a PE of less than 5! That stock could easily touch N200 and still be buy.

So even though I believe we would end up in a bubble I don't think we would get there for another 5-7 years.

Some stocks are already in a bubble while most are fairly priced.
PE of less than 5 can mostly be seeing in banking stocks.

ojeysky:
TIP profit and EPS tripled wow!
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45888_THE_INITIATES_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

Fantastic

aj8:
pluto09

What I tried to do was the following…i recognised the PAT at Q3 2025..6.9bill
I took the forecast of the company though for Q1 2026 and added to the above = 6.6+ 2.9 =9.5 bill...believeing that the bases for their forecast could already be present and active..
VFD OS = 7.6
EPS forecast = 9.8/7.6 =1.25 rounded off to 1.25
However if we were to work with the Q3 results and just assume that the company ‘s forecast for Q1 2026 could only be active in Q1.. Probably for some cyclical reasons…
We will then have 0.64 x 12 /9 = 0.85
Allowing therefore a PE x 0.85
= 12.40 x 0.85 = 10.54 price estimate

But then the market has to be right. Right? Currently above this figure... The market therefore sees some value above 0.85 Eps even with dividends factored in.

Even better still, should the VFD forecast run through all of 2026, we may be in for the 20s.

I DO NOT OWN VFD. HOWEVER, I COULD CONSIDER BUYING IF IT DROPS BELOW 10.

Using 6.6b as PAT to calculate the eps might be misleading.
You have to put into consideration the NCI.
The actual PAT that belongs to the owner of the company is N4.8b.

I HAVE SOME UNITS OF THE STOCK hence my keen interest

nosa2:
My ultimate signal to flee to cash is when my mother calls me and asks how she can invest.

So for me this is how it works, markets start to do well; then my siblings hear about it through their friends etc. They then call me and ask how can they invest and what should they buy. I give them something, they make some money , and then they tell my mother. The minute my mother calls me and asks how she can be involved, I RUN AWAY.

This has worked with crypto and the stock market.

Right now I am looking at the market. When the madness starts I stop looking at the market and I start looking at market participants. The madness has not started oh. Those who were around in 2008 will testify as to how crazy things get. People were bribing to be involved in private placements. Something tells me we will get there with this boom cycle. It may not be soon but we are going there.

Do you remember that there was a time people were buying crypto accounts?

Markets do get crazy

The bear will surely come but nobody can actually predict when it will happen.
I personally think the market dynamics have moved beyond what we had in 2008 and the possibility of having a major crash in the near future is a very slim one.

aj8:
My estimate for VFD is based on a FY 2025 EPS of approximately N1.25 based on forecast provided by the company even though it's for Q1 2026. I added it to their Q3 2025 since the forecast must have emanated from something.

PE of 12.40

Therefore 1.25 x 12.40 = 15.50

Why did I use the PE? I have already explained.

Do you actually believe they will make an eps of N1.25 in FY 2025 giving the fact that q3 eps was just N0.64k.
Being conservative on future earning by projecting the q3 eps to FY25 would have been better in my own opinion.

KarlTom:
These ZENITH volumes...

Before access took over zenith na the real volume mover.
Someone would just be supplying unending volume to the market.

emmanuelewumi:
Can you also try the Enterprise Value/Earning Before Interest and Taxes


Unilever PE is over 17, but the EV/ EBIT is 6.45

Why Unilever?
The guy is comparing stocks in the same sector and he has decided to use pe which is very simple and easy to use.
You can also help us to compare the 3 stocks mentioned using another ratio.

eziokwunwoko:
VeritasKapita ; EPS is wrong, it is N0.465K.
Please check

N0.465k should be the eps

mikeapollo:
Veritaskap EPS of N0.93k at end of 2025.
The stock may hit N5 soon

PAT is 6.46b and OS is 13.86b
How did they arrive at an eps of N0.93k?

nosa2:
You go fear bull market analysis

It is really crazy.
I understand a stock can attain any ridiculous price in a bull market with no tangible reason but the attempt to justify some ridiculous prices with some non-existing fundamentals is sickening to say the least.

debeey87:
Looking at the numbers from NNFM Unaudited 9m results, what could have changed their earnings trajectory to a downward spiral from the previous year in an era where FCMG companies are constantly raising prices are churning out profits.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45802_N_NIG._FLOUR_MILLS_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

That is their way. Consistency is never in their dictionary.