₦airaland Forum

aj8:
Wema bank market structure

You done port to TA

chimex38:
There could be more to it.
Might not be as literal as I know and presented it.


Hedge funds that bulls even during bear in-well established markets already exists.

What I am skeptical is long-term sustainability not possibility.


I am sure if you also lived in early 20th century and being sold the "monkey idea" of the possibility of a flying object(Airplane ✈), even when gliding objects far superior to kites already exists.
You would probably be among those who would still call it outrightly a "Monkey" project without consideration.

I didn't say people are not doing it.
I know of course that people do scalping and make profit.

chimex38:
He trades daily.
E.g 5m @3%= 150000
another 4m @ 5%=12000
Another 1m @ 9%= 90,000.
If you keep at this daily, you may also encounter losses or traps in some stocks on the index.
But net gain by month-end should far exceed the losses and brokerage fees if you are quite good at it like he does.

you could also leave your losses(traps) as paper loss until it breaks even or bull surfaces.(essentially making 100% gains).


Liquidity and right stocks picks is the issue in a bear market, but if you keep your quantities low and have knowledge of the stocks in question, you can reduce the rate you get trapped.(skill involved).

In a bull market as we have currently, liquidity isn't much an issue. One could even trade 10million luckily @8-10%=800k- 1million
(bullish and very liquid stocks).

If you believe someone could be doing what you highlighted above on the NSE and would be making the kind of money he claimed to be making then I have a monkey to sell to you.

mikeapollo:
Why are you so defensive on any thing about govt:?
The CBN routinely allocates or decides the threshold of forex to be made available to BDCs in the NFEM, as a way of managing the rate:
The CBN regulates the NFEM (Nigeria Foreign Exchange Market) by determining the allocation threshold to BDCs


Please refer to this news item:
https://thebureau.com.ng/cbn-approves-150000-weekly-fx-access-bdcs/
https://www.nairaland.com/8616324/cbn-approves-150000-weekly-fx

Quoting from the link you posted,

“To ensure the availability of adequate foreign exchange liquidity in the retail segment of the foreign exchange market to meet the legitimate needs of end users, this is to inform market participants that all BDCs that are duly licensed by the CBN are allowed to access foreign exchange from the NFEM through any Authorised Dealer of their choice, at the prevailing exchange rate.”

There is clearly a difference between CBN allocating forex to BDC and BDC accessing forex from NFEM at the prevailing exchange rate.

I am not out to defend government,I just believe people on this forum should know better than the average Nigerian and that should form the basis of our criticism or support for the government.

mikeapollo:
It is about which GDP component generates the required forex revenue, from which the govt gets its dollars allocations to the BDC.
Oil revenue is still the largest and dominant contributor to Nigeria's forex revenue, and it is affected by volume and price

The CBN is not allocating forex to BDC.
They are only allowed to access forex from the NFEM.

yMcy56:
Oga Pluto, it goes both ways.....
If anyone have seen the downside of those big Caps, he go fear 😨

Also, one of the disadvantages of big Caps is trapping.....
Yet it may be difficult to see it drop in price because of the huge amount involved in bringing it down with -10%, but if trapped, it's always difficult to come out...... especially if it's not earning season like this or you're not a long termer/dividend investor.

Well, some are liquid sha, the person will just have to place offer at -10% while they're picking it in 5, 10, 12 units till it's sold. Lol 😁

A penny stock with improved financials and room for growth is preferred by someone like me.

In summary, both have their advantages and disadvantages.

** Speaking about CHAMS, did anyone notice what's happening there?
** MM is keeping it down from appreciating.....what are they up to?

It is just a reminder that money could also be lost in the market.
If I were to advise him, this is not the best time to enter the market for people with no experience.
In my own opinion, this is a seller market, buying now should be for those who have a good knowledge of TA.

mikeapollo:
Well, you are free to believe in whatever lies or rumours you decide. It is your right.
The rule of the game is evidence, especially after several comprehensive investigations all over the world including Nigeria, UK, US, Dubai etc.
Atiku has not sued OBJ after all the allegations because he is a politician who is still vying to become president and mayvbe hoping to leverage OBJ's influence to win.

Please Note:
I am not saying Atiku is better than anybody for the post of president. No.
I am only restricting myself to some of the political lies and rumours that some people believe out of ignorance or naivety. Similar other political lies were said against Tinubu himself in opposition; he appeared before the ICPC and was cleared/discharged.
One of the persons that made those allegations against Tinubu then, Nuhu Ribadu, has now taken up appointment as National Security Adviser under the same Tinubu that he once described as corrupt. How about that? Of course, he needed to tell the lie against Tinubu in order to impress OBJ who appointed him as EFCC chairman, and now he needs to accept the appointment under Tinubu so he can be politically relevant and make some money as well.

But Atiku was even far more investigated than Tinubu or anybody else in the history of Nigeria.

Nigerians can believe anything.
It is just unfortunate that Atiku has been stigmatized. No thanks to his boss OBJ .

mikeapollo:
Are we really sure?
Strategically speaking, it could be a huge mistake and dangerous for a nation to sell 100% stake in its national oil company (like NNPC) outrightly to private hands.
This is why no single member of OPEC has done that. Countries like Saudi, Qatar, UAE, Brasil, Kuwait, Russia, etc all have some significant share in their national oil companies, even though the majority share may go to private investors.

The government has not said they are going to sell 100% stake in national assets and I don't think NNPC will ever be sold.
They should reduce government stake in some strategic assets like NNPC but some like the refiniries should be sold 100%

Engrblessing:
Madam Mercy, I have 1 million naira to invest in the ICT sector, between MTN and Chams, which of them do you advise I buy? I want to buy a stock that will give at least 100% by the end of the year.

As you are thinking about the one that will give you the best returns, you should also put into consideration the one that can loose you money very fast if things don't go the way you envisage.

awesomeJ:
$150k weekly dollar sale to BDCs!!!

We just might hit 1250 soon.

I think the latest arrangement is made to close the gap between the official and the parallel market rates.
The news out there is that the cbn has started to buy dollars from the market to slow down the naira appreciation.
Which ever way, I want to the believe the cbn has done well and it is a good one for the country that the naira is doing well.

mikeapollo:
I agree. I only used it as an example to make the point that subsidy does not have to go entirely directly to the people that need it most. It is a fallacy, a lie that has been sold to the people and unfortunately, many have believed and accepted it as ''truth''

It is not a lie and it is not a fallacy.
I didn't respond to that because I believe you have already made up your mind on what you believe.

mikeapollo:
This is one of the lies that they have used to deceive the people.
There is no where in the world where subsidy goes entirely directly to the people that need it most.
When subsidy is given, the benefit is usually for the general populace. When Agric, transportation services are subsidized in the US or Europe, everybody enjoys the passthrough effect, both the rich and poor. Rich men use the same transport system and consume the same farm produce that the poor consume. The focus is that the poor who are in the majority should benefit more, even if some rich people also benefit. Free or subsidized education is another example.

Our govt has successfully deceived the people by making many to believe that subsidy is not going directly to the people that need it, hence it must be abolished. For instance, were the ordinary citizens buying fuel at cheaper rates not enjoying it? Which poor man is better buying fuel at N1,000 instead of N200?

Education is still being subsidized in our country.

mikeapollo:
Subsidies are meant for redistribution of income, reducing poverty, improving standard of living etc and must not necessarily come from ''surplus''. The US, UK, etc. all have subsidies for their transportation, Agric. sectors etc. They even have food banks for people who are hungry to go collect free food to eat.
But we Africans are becoming increasingly influenced to believe that any form of subsidy is bad or unnecessary

I don't think there is anyone in Africa that said subsidy is bad.
The problem most times is the application and affordability.
Subsidy should go directly to people that need it most and the country should also be able to afford it. It is economic suicide to be borrowing money to pay subsidy.

Agbalowomeri:
Access go report loss for this year end result

It is very wrong for you to present your opinion as fact.
It would have been better if you said access might report loss.

BabsO2:
Those invested in Oando gather here.
I have the following NAV valuation based on reserves computed as follows
Company NAV per Share
Oando N429
Seplat N 8,980
Aradel N997

Oando is at a deep discount based on reasons already discussed upandan here. Most especially will its turnaround succeed in view of its debt over load. This NAV of N429 is the value those lending money to Oando see and are taking a good cut of. And the market has discounted it to current price of N39 to reflect its high risk turnaround profile.

As low margin revenues from trading goes down, will management succeed in transforming Oando into
👉 A leaner upstream-focused energy company
👉 With stronger balance sheet
👉 With sustainable free cash flow
👉 With higher reserve monetisation efficiency
And work towards its NAV based on reserves?

If crude oil were to be by reserve, Venezuela would be the richest country in the world

mikeapollo:
Yes, the company paid off the equity of some shareholders (who took the company to court) and retrieved the shares from them

How much was OandO share price when the company retrieved the share and paid some shareholders off??

ositadima1:
Total shares were about 12 billion. Following agreements with a major shareholder, roughly 4 billion shares were returned to the company, likely in exchange for outstanding debt owed to Oando at the group level. My understanding is that the arrangement involved surrendering an equivalent equity stake to settle debts that were already considered impaired.

Under this structure, those shares are being redistributed to minority shareholders in stages, effectively converting the debt into equity. Until all of these shares are fully reissued, EPS is calculated based on the active shares in circulation, not the total issued share capital.

Does this make sense? It’s giving me a headache too. lol

It is making sense.
Those redistributed shares might not be free after all.

ositadima1:
Remember the agreement between Oando and Ocean and Oil Development Partners (OODP). As part of that arrangement, OODP returned roughly 4 billion shares in exchange for outstanding debt. Those shares are now being re-circulated to minority shareholders in tranches. As a result, based on the number of shares that have so far been redistributed, only about 8 billion shares are currently active, while the remainder are held as treasury shares and therefore excluded from the EPS calculation until they are subsequently reissued.

Regarding production, output appears to be in the range of 30,000–40,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) based on publicly available information.

Shouldn't the exchange of share for debt lead to improvement in equity.
Why should this result in extra burden for shareholders with a worsening negative equity position?

iskalamong:
Please see the message below:



Cheers!

Iskalamong!


.

.

You mean the company paid 325b for 4.29b of its own shares?

iskalamong:
They repurchased treasury shares. This reduced their shares outstanding.

Iskalamong!

.

.

Which one is repurchase treasury shares?

ositadima1:
A quick look at Oando PLC’s FY2025 results. The company reported profit of approximately ₦241 billion, only about ₦50 billion, roughly 20%, was attributable to core operating activities. The bulk of earnings came from non-operational sources such as impairment reversals, finance income, and FX or tax-related adjustments, all of which are volatile and mostly non-recurring.

Meanwhile, cash interest paid during the year exceeded ₦200 billion. Group equity closed the year at roughly –₦554 billion; on a purely mechanical basis, this would likely have flipped positive but for the approximately ₦325 billion charge related to treasury shares, while the precise economic nature of this transaction, whether a conventional cash buyback or a restructuring-driven capital adjustment, remains unclear.

To maintain a clean balance sheet, one option is to increase operating profit by more than fourfold, or alternatively to restructure the capital structure by converting debt into equity. The first is difficult but potentially achievable if the company can significantly reduce operating expenses. The second is easier to execute and could benefit investors over the long term, as an annual interest burden of around ₦200 billion is substantial to sustain.

eps was calculated using 8.152b instead of 12b.
Any idea how they arrived at this?
What is their output of crude oil (boe) now?

K

Sunrisepebble:
I can confirm he has been buying GTB but not sure if it’s for merger purposes

He might be positioning himself to take over GTB but I don't think a merger between FIRSTHOLDCO and GTB will fly.

Coolcash1:
CWG fair price is N70.

Don’t focus on short term headwinds just look at long term. The business model remains very solid, well positioned to benefit from government’s digital economy transformation and broadband growth.

Therefore, when the weak hands are shakened out refuse to sell your holding cheap and buy back at expensive price later or now trying to catch a moving train.

Ire o.

Oga, which valuation method did you use to arrive at N70 fair price for CWG?

Agbalowomeri:
Seems we've all slept on Custodian
I didn't believe they would maintain that growth

And to think that the MD spent over N3b in December to purchase about 87 million units of the company shares.

nosa2:
I have EPS of N2.22

Don't know where the 3.2 was coming from.
N2.2 is the correct eps

Agbalowomeri:
Na Tony's UBA started that bs. It's either company's shares have changed or not. Which one be weighted average. Will you pay dividends with weighting?

It is a way to mislead the unsuspecting public.
People should take extra care to do most of these calculations by themselves.
Weighted average rubbish.