emmanuelewumi:



Occupational hazards.

People should always consider the grey areas and risks before they commit funds. Nothing should come as a surprise to informed investors

There is nothing much to worry about as an investor.
Crypto will still continue to thrive albeit in a different way.

emmanuelewumi:
CBN did not and can't stop crypto currency trading in Nigeria, it is beyond the scope of their operations.

The bank only told the banks they regulate that they should not allow their channels to be used for such transactions

Yes, CBN did not ban crypto trading.
They have however successfully blocked the major gateway for large scale trading.
P2p will most likely thrive but can't compare to direct access to major exchanges.
It is a big blow for crypto community in Nigeria.

emmanuelewumi:



Can didn't and can't ban crypto currency trading in Nigeria. It is beyond their power.

They only instructed banks not to allow their channels to be used for such transactions

Yes, CBN did not ban crypto trading.
They have however successfully blocked the major gateway for large scale trading.
P2p will most likely thrive but can't compare to direct access to major exchanges.
It is a big blow for crypto community in Nigeria.

jedisco:


I edited my post...
I meant your source.

Fact is huge money has gone into the sector..
I'd say it's been fuelled by 3 things.
1. The devaluation of the naira of which CBN played the major role

2. The fact that bitc0in broke it's previous 20k all time high in 3 years. Most folks wjo thought it was dead started paying attention and considering it as a long-term option

3. Those who want quick cash who would further fuel the run and likely be burnt because of greed. Perhaps the 'gamblers'

I follow binance daily and one of the things I watch for is volume.
Unfortunately I did not have a snapshot.

jedisco:


What's the source of the 20 billion?

That is really one of the major concerns.
The kind of money going into crypto exchanges daily from Nigeria is just too much.

emmanuelewumi:


The value of transactions on NSE in Q2 was $130 million during the lockdown. They should have also shared the value of transaction in Q1, Q3 and Q4. People sell their shares for different reasons.

They should have compared the figures with the value of transactions on FMDQ that runs into billions of dollars, after all they trade in currencies and fixed income on FMDQ

The value of crypto traded against the ngn has increased significantly in recent months.
More than 20billion yesterday on binance.
CBN should definitely be worried.

RayRay06677:


Why hiding your illicit investment. Wanted to bring out the proud foolishness in you.

Rephrasing, what's is investment to you since "ponzi" is not one.
My brother, no need for e-fight, its like religion. Anybody not worshipping your gods is evil. If you don't understand forex then allow it slide, don't tag investors foolish. A genuine business can be use as front for fraud but the trade itself is genuine. Just like any other business in Nigeria, anything can crash. ExxonMobil just post a negative profit of over $20b dollars. Their share holders can't be tag foolish.

Forex in itself is not a scam.
The problem is that most of those claiming to be trading forex and promising investors fixed returns are in all probability not doing forex.
The probability that MBA actually traded forex is near zero.

fxuser:


E ku market dear fam

Happy New Year and NEW MONTH

Happy new year and new month to you too.
You just abandoned your students like that
Welcome back.

ositadiima1:
I am sorry if I bug u guys with my perceived crap, I am talking to u, the diehard fundamentalists and serial dividend collectors.

I haven't seen any references in our local media towards systematic trading techniques. So, I post mine. I know some big and small firms use these techniques on our NSE, codedly. I am sure they are cashing out big time.

If systematic algorithms make big bucks on the New York Stock Exchange, which is saturated as at now with these trading robots, how much more our NSE. Food for thought "Bro".

Our market is very shallow, you need a very deep market for some of these things to work well.

OBAGADAFFI:


https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/resource-centre/our-contribution-to-the-fight-against-2019-ncov/

This is GSk UK.

OBAGADAFFI:


I know GSK have biovaccine lab.

Any link to support this your assertion because to the best of my knowledge,. as at today no Nigeria pharmaceutical company has the capacity to produce any vaccine.

GANDALF1:
Livestock has trapped its own share of prisoners.

FTNCOCOA also got some share.

No dividend or interest payments for a while.

Back to drybone status

You have really tried to sound some notes of warning..
The qualities of analyses ( both TA and FA) have been on the decline in recent times and I think that is one of the reasons some experienced members don't bother to contribute much again..

People are looking for quick profits and anyone that mention a stock that rises in value is seeing as a hero..
Japaul, champion brewery, ftn cocoa,any company in the insurance sector.........
Sometimes, you feel like vomiting when you read some of the recommendations of the so called stock pickers now....

They should enjoy it why it last,sooner than later, most of them will disappear again...

bigjay01:
Dabbled into crypto. Bought some litecoin on 03/01/21. Let's see how it plays out. The volatility na die

Welcome to the club....

Those who think Nigeria will manufacture covid 19 vaccine can now go and rest.
Nigeria will import the vaccine as usual.

https://www.nairaland.com/6325626/senators-express-doubt-fg-unveils

ositadiima1:
2012 to 2020 : Mean Reversion Variant

as u can see bellow the initial 1mil in 2012 generated 1.127 mils in 8 years. Very poor.

Great stuff.
Kudos.

Market review...

swilo:


Please, expatiate. I need to understand your point please.

There is a difference between perception and expectations and reality.
The perception is that all heath related companies will make more profit, the reality is that not all of them will make more profit.

handsomebolanle:

That might be our best bet... Except we want to keep it imported at intervals...

Moderna's vaccine is can be kept for 30 days in the refrigerator, the company announced Monday. Pfizer's vaccine can last only five days in the refrigerator., - CNN

Do we produce any vaccine in the country?
What happens to cold chain equipment in handling import?

I understand the euphoria and sentiment about health sector companies but in term of real benefit to balance sheet, there might be none.

emmanuelewumi:



Who will get the right for the manufacture or sales of the vaccine in Nigeria and West Africa?

Do you also believe we will manufacture any covid-19 vaccine in Nigeria?

TransAtlanticEx:
Funny thing is I am not trying to make anyone believe I am smart or anything,I am bigger than that
Just that people just get intimidated by superior arguments or superiority in general,reason why you think I am trying to impress anyone of you lots whereas I am just doing me,like who I am every other day.
I ain't even trying to be honest,the only time I try to be smart is when I want to lock deals
A satisfied life my ass,LOSER TALK

If you are not married, it will be difficult for you to understand what it means to have a satisfied life.

ukay2:


This Burundi Bull will tear any chart apart and keeps moving

We have seen it before...
Charts will always say something

Agbalowomeri:
Should we expect a pull back tomorrow or day after?
The bull is seriously mad though
Does the ASI want to do 100% before year end ni

Bring out your charts I beg

Equity snapshot....

Finally!!! We reclaim the top spot among equity markets globally. The Nigeria’s equity market is currently the best performing bourse in the world, soaring to a 23.94% YtD gain. As I earlier mentioned, the turning point was the CBN’s decision to revise downwards the MPR by 100bps; from that date, the market has ballooned 30%, with average daily trade metrics more than doubling. The bourse is on track for its first positive yearly close since 2017, and even if (a big IF) offshore sellers turn the taps back on, we have more than enough cushion to absorb any sort of sell pressure. This performance has been a huge reward for the locals who braved the risk of the market even in the face of Covid and FX uncertainty. The only blemish this year has been the inability of offshore players to access FX, inadvertently leaving the fate of the bourse into the hands of locals—it has mainly been a local to local market.

Here are some thoughts on the equities market, this morning;

 First question on your mind….who has been buying? We can confirm that mostly local asset managers (Non-PFAs) have been doing the heavy lifting in the bourse, while retail accounts have also not been left out. The traditional PFAs have also not been left out but more often than not, they balked at the high prices of some of the bellwether counters, however, we did see a few come closer to market levels late last week and early this week. Hard to gauge the trajectory of the speculators, they sell when sentiments are softer and join the bid queue when large buyers step in. In summary, locals are net-buyers of equites right now and with the further retrenchment of NTB rates, one would expect more money to trickle into risk assets.

 The story remains the same on the foreign front. A large chunk of accounts have sat by the sidelines still expecting FX from the CBN. The active players have mostly been SA funds and some EU accounts. These funds have been switching positions since H1; mostly selling ACCESS NL, FBNH NL and ETI NL to fund purchases in NB, STANBIC and GUARANTY NL. We have also seen the persistent use of NEWGOLD NL to repatriate cash..c.N40bn ($105mn) has been repatriated since the turn of the year.

 As at yesterday’s close, the NGSE ASI was trading at P/E of 12.1x—at a 6% discount to its 10-yr average of 12.84x. Current dividend yield prints at 5.84%--a 29% premium to its 10-yr average of 4.54%. Despite the recent jump in prices, the bourse remains cheaper than most of its FM and EM peers (chart below). P/E trading at a 22% discount to the MSCI FM bucket, while Div yield in Nigeria outpaces the MSCI FM bucket by 66%. Prices still have some room to run, before we catch up with our FM peers.



What Next?


Market sentiments would continue to be driven by the state of liquidity in the system, while the present drop in NTB rates would be another short-term catalyst for risky assets. We most likely would not see any strong offshore play till very late in the year/early next year as FX liquidity remains a steady drip. As I mentioned earlier, PFAs are of the opinion that prices are quite expensive, but we have seen steady recalibration in the last 3-4 trading days and we could see more dealings as year-end approaches. One thing is for sure; it would take something drastic for the bourse to erase all of its Ytd gains, for now the market is on course for its 4th positive yearly close in the last 10 years….this has been well earned considering all that has happened in 2020.

sellydion:
Fundamentally, the only sound stock here is JB

Sleep with both eyes closed.

JB posted a negative earning nine month ended September 2020.
The stock market could be very unpredictable though.
Last year was good for the company but the price did not go anywhere.

We are in a bull market and I think we are getting to a point where prices are driving up more by sentiment than any fundamental.
Will not be surprised if JB joins the bull even with the negative earning.

Princkez:
What is holding FUGAZ q3 results...

Anyone with info on what might be causing the delay? It is very unusual.

ojeysky:


Well am on meristem and my account was suspended as well, staff said they are looking into it though

Meristem are very responsive.
My account was suspended yesterday afternoon. I sent them a mail that I have done the KYC and just about an hour after the suspension on my account was lifted.

Equities Market in Review
What a week we had! The bourse rounded off the month of October in grand style, recording its biggest monthly gain in 33 months (since January 2018) and its best October return in 17 years (Oct, 2003). In retrospect, September’s MPR was the turning point for local bulls, since that date; the NGSE ASI has gained c.19%, investors’ holdings have swollen by c.N2.6trn, while no less than N130bn have trickled into the market— average daily trade metrics blossomed c.100% as institutional players resumed equity dealings. Local investors who are being outmuscled at the NTB auction, have had no choice than to plough those maturities into equities, last week’s record (12 year record) closing rate of 0.98% (1-yr paper) added fuel to the raging bullish storm. Amidst all this madness, foreign accounts remain sidelined, exasperated by their inability to access FX, the major active players (SA Funds) have merely been switching positions. Going forward, one would expect that the quality of Q3 numbers of the bellwether firms would be the main influence of market sentiments, with cash rich locals ready to gulp tickers who maintain YoY earnings growth.
.

Let’s look back at last week’s events;

 The bourse gained 639bps last week (6th consecutive weekly gain), mainly driven by gains recorded in the Consumer bucket (+12.2%) and the Banking names (+8.05%), moreover, every other sub sectoral bucket closed in the green WoW. Pertinent to note, that the NSEBNK has turned positive for the year (c.4.4% gain YtD)

Who did what?
Pension funds were the heavy lifters last week, executing block trades in most of the bellwether names; GUARANTY NL, FBNH NL, DANGCEM NL and UBA NL, while we saw some offers in FLOURMILL NL and DANGSUGAR NL. local retail accounts continue to chase high yielding names; nibbling WAPCO NL, ZENITHBA NL, UBA NL and the consumer tickers—speculators were busy in INTBREW NL.

Offshore accounts were mainly switching positions, selling ETI NL, FBNH NL, ACCESS NL and GUINNESS NL to fund purchases in GUARANTY NL, STANBIC and NB NL. We also saw an offshore buyer in MTNN NL late in the week, accumulating 1.4mn units. It also seems the major funds selling GUARANTY NL/ZENITHBA NL have taken a break, with no active offers from those accounts all through the week. We continue to see SA accounts repatriate cash using NEWGOLD NL, with N2.1bn (c.$6mn) dealt last week---I had earlier mentioned that the ETF ticked its highest metrics (both volume and value) in October—N16.5bn ($43mn).

Worthy of Mention
The 1yr NTB paper ticked its lowest closing rate since Bloomberg starting compiling data for Nigerian T-bills (a 12 yr low). The chart below paints the full picture.


Outlook

We project more institutional dealings amidst dwindling local fixed income yields, while market momentum will also be influenced by quality of Q3 numbers of the bellwether tickers.

Equity snapshots.....

ukay2:


Do they have Investors Conference Call for this Q3 result?

Hopefully there should be one.

Calebbold:


Study Wapco company result(not the group's result) 2019 q2 &q3, then u will understand that Wapco doesn't usually make much profit in 3rd quarter.

I feel it's majorly due to the weather in most South South states which is Wapco's stronghold...it usually rains alot during this period/quarter.

Wapco best result is usually in the first and second quarter of the year.

But I don't think they will come at a loss in q4.. but we could be expecting something closer to the 3rd quarter result or even better.

Most investment houses already know this...study their PAT forecast for WAPCO 2020..I think the highest was around 35 billion.

Some of your points are very valid but I have my reservation about the reason you adduced to the reduction in profit.
Going by your point, revenue should have reduced but that was not the case. The reason for the reduction in profit was because cost of sales went up significantly in q3, may be if we scrutinize this area properly we might get a better understanding of their operations.

On WAPCO..

Liquidity has increased significantly which is a plus.
The result also look good y/y.
However it is a poor result q/q and I am still studying it to see what might be responsible for that.
Cost of sales went up significantly from 32b in q2 to about 45b in q3 and PAT drops from 15b to 4.8b resulting in a drop of eps of 96k to 30k over q2 and q3.

Could this be a pointer to what will happen in ,q4 bearing in mind that the company reported a negative earnings in q4 2019?