₦airaland Forum

Raider76:
Please anything on FIRSTHOLDCO? Some people must have seen the results going by the sharp loss today after a gain yesterday.

Provisioning for loan loss done finish FIRSTHOLDCO

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45913_AUSTIN_LAZ_AND_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_5_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

No wonder,the owner himself was actively selling to run away.

emmanuelewumi:
Summary of Nahco result for 2025


Revenue N65.2 billion
Gross profit N38.6 billion

Operating profit N24.8 billion

Earnings Before Interest and Taxes N26.4 billion

Profit after tax N18 billion

Market Capitalization N215 billion

Enterprise Value N210 billion

Stock price N110

Equity N26.5 billion

Debt N6.1 billion

Cash N11.2 billion

Capital expenses N1.3 billion

Capital employed N31.3 billion

Total Asset N53.9 billion

Net Operating cash flow N17.7 billion

Free Cash Flow N16.4 billion

Return on Equity 68%

Return on Capital Employed 85%

Cash Flow Return on Investment 56.5%

Gross Profit/Total Asset 71.6%


Working Capital N7.3 billion

Net profit margin 27.6%

Operating Profit margin 38%

EBIT margin 40.5%

Gross margin 59%

Operating cash flow margin 27%

Free Cash Flow margin 25%

Capex/Sales 2%

Capex/OCF 7.5%

Price Earning ratio 11.9

EV/EBIT 7.9

Good company and good result.
Growth though is slowing down.
They did less business and made less profit in q4 2025 compared to q4 2024

nosa2:
Please all this my talk of market crash is extremely premature oh!

Nigerian economy is just resuming growth. Even though it seems prices have risen, earnings have risen to justify the new prices. Stanbic for example released result today and despite the recent run up in prices the stock is trading with a PE of less than 5! That stock could easily touch N200 and still be buy.

So even though I believe we would end up in a bubble I don't think we would get there for another 5-7 years.

Some stocks are already in a bubble while most are fairly priced.
PE of less than 5 can mostly be seeing in banking stocks.

ojeysky:
TIP profit and EPS tripled wow!
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45888_THE_INITIATES_PLC-_YEAR_END_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2025_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

Fantastic

aj8:
pluto09

What I tried to do was the following…i recognised the PAT at Q3 2025..6.9bill
I took the forecast of the company though for Q1 2026 and added to the above = 6.6+ 2.9 =9.5 bill...believeing that the bases for their forecast could already be present and active..
VFD OS = 7.6
EPS forecast = 9.8/7.6 =1.25 rounded off to 1.25
However if we were to work with the Q3 results and just assume that the company ‘s forecast for Q1 2026 could only be active in Q1.. Probably for some cyclical reasons…
We will then have 0.64 x 12 /9 = 0.85
Allowing therefore a PE x 0.85
= 12.40 x 0.85 = 10.54 price estimate

But then the market has to be right. Right? Currently above this figure... The market therefore sees some value above 0.85 Eps even with dividends factored in.

Even better still, should the VFD forecast run through all of 2026, we may be in for the 20s.

I DO NOT OWN VFD. HOWEVER, I COULD CONSIDER BUYING IF IT DROPS BELOW 10.

Using 6.6b as PAT to calculate the eps might be misleading.
You have to put into consideration the NCI.
The actual PAT that belongs to the owner of the company is N4.8b.

I HAVE SOME UNITS OF THE STOCK hence my keen interest

nosa2:
My ultimate signal to flee to cash is when my mother calls me and asks how she can invest.

So for me this is how it works, markets start to do well; then my siblings hear about it through their friends etc. They then call me and ask how can they invest and what should they buy. I give them something, they make some money , and then they tell my mother. The minute my mother calls me and asks how she can be involved, I RUN AWAY.

This has worked with crypto and the stock market.

Right now I am looking at the market. When the madness starts I stop looking at the market and I start looking at market participants. The madness has not started oh. Those who were around in 2008 will testify as to how crazy things get. People were bribing to be involved in private placements. Something tells me we will get there with this boom cycle. It may not be soon but we are going there.

Do you remember that there was a time people were buying crypto accounts?

Markets do get crazy

The bear will surely come but nobody can actually predict when it will happen.
I personally think the market dynamics have moved beyond what we had in 2008 and the possibility of having a major crash in the near future is a very slim one.

aj8:
My estimate for VFD is based on a FY 2025 EPS of approximately N1.25 based on forecast provided by the company even though it's for Q1 2026. I added it to their Q3 2025 since the forecast must have emanated from something.

PE of 12.40

Therefore 1.25 x 12.40 = 15.50

Why did I use the PE? I have already explained.

Do you actually believe they will make an eps of N1.25 in FY 2025 giving the fact that q3 eps was just N0.64k.
Being conservative on future earning by projecting the q3 eps to FY25 would have been better in my own opinion.

KarlTom:
These ZENITH volumes...

Before access took over zenith na the real volume mover.
Someone would just be supplying unending volume to the market.

emmanuelewumi:
Can you also try the Enterprise Value/Earning Before Interest and Taxes


Unilever PE is over 17, but the EV/ EBIT is 6.45

Why Unilever?
The guy is comparing stocks in the same sector and he has decided to use pe which is very simple and easy to use.
You can also help us to compare the 3 stocks mentioned using another ratio.

eziokwunwoko:
VeritasKapita ; EPS is wrong, it is N0.465K.
Please check

N0.465k should be the eps

mikeapollo:
Veritaskap EPS of N0.93k at end of 2025.
The stock may hit N5 soon

PAT is 6.46b and OS is 13.86b
How did they arrive at an eps of N0.93k?

nosa2:
You go fear bull market analysis

It is really crazy.
I understand a stock can attain any ridiculous price in a bull market with no tangible reason but the attempt to justify some ridiculous prices with some non-existing fundamentals is sickening to say the least.

debeey87:
Looking at the numbers from NNFM Unaudited 9m results, what could have changed their earnings trajectory to a downward spiral from the previous year in an era where FCMG companies are constantly raising prices are churning out profits.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/45802_N_NIG._FLOUR_MILLS_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2026_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_JANUARY_2026.pdf

That is their way. Consistency is never in their dictionary.

chimex38:
Proof of supposed NCR "Magic" (my perspective)

POINT 1
NCR moved from -₦20 to +~₦2 that's technically a +~₦22 EPS jump.


A substantial amount of its losses for 2024 FY was FX realised-losses NOT company operations.(check again).
NCR Q4, 2024 EPS alone was ₦4!! the FY 2024 losses diluted/downplayed the significance of this ₦4 EPS alone.
Pointing to a brighter 🔆 2025.


POINT 2
By my estimate on average in NGx:
A company with an EPS of ₦2 with a MOAT status and between 1-3bn OS will be trading at average of
x10<-->x15 of EPS.

Therefore, A company with an EPS of ₦2 like NCR with a MOAT status and with 0.1bn-0.3bn OS should therefore be trading at least average of x10 of x10 of EPS of those within 1bn-3bn OS= x100 EPS
Hence ₦2 EPS = ₦200 share Price
(The "scarcer" the share, the higher the Share price proportionality principle; subject to free float ).

POINT 3
Also, if NCR could make ₦4 in
quarter 4, 2024, it means it's normally projected annualized EPS aside FX losses should average ₦15-₦20 For FY.
Placing its share price between the x10-->x15 EPS range= 150-200 range.

The Almighty abracadabra of NCR from first principle...Proved

Are you just being sarcastic here?
eps for q4 2025 is a loss of about N4

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-01-16/peru-wants-private-manager-to-run-troubled-6-billion-refinery

Refinery business all over the world is not an easy one.
OandO expertise might be needed in peru

faoogoke:
If NGX can allow Juli Chemist continue scamming investors DEAP Capital and co are safe.

ASO Savings was a regulatory intervention.

The question should be, is DEAP Capital under special regulations like aso savings? If yes then the warning is apt.

Agbalowomeri:
I don't even understand whether na AwesomeJ people dey recycle the shares which has been unending for a year Lol

I eventually bought some units around N20 though not as much as I wanted.
Looking at the volume being traded daily I keep wondering if the sellers have an unlimited numbers of the company shares.

Agbalowomeri:
Make we dey look whether you no go make withdrawals

Who are the people selling this access
Seems like they have very big bags.

Raider76:
So they want the world to believe that KPMG didn't know what they were talking about before and it is only now they are seeking for clarification?

The visit by KPMG to the tax authority is the important thing here. This is way better than the earlier narrative and the rebuttal by oloyede.

https://www.thecable.ng/kpmg-nrs-meet-after-debate-over-new-tax-laws/

Way to go, everything should not be fight....

mikeapollo:
Taiwo Oyedele apparently saw his appointment as an opportunity to rush and do what his appointors wanted him to do, with little regard to the effect on whole citizenry. He obviously did not consult other experts and stakeholders in the industry, e,g. Deloitte, KPMG, EY etc., hence the critiques by these firms.
He even proposed an increment in VAT but the NASS shut it down.

The guy just need to calm down and accept criticism in good faith.
No law is perfect and we can always work on it to improve the outcome.
I however don't subscribe to the suggestion that the process was rushed. People will still pick hole even if it takes us 20 yrs to prepare the law.
As at today people are still criticizing tax laws in uk, Australia and many more countries.

mikeapollo:
Deapcap has restructured and deleveraged its AMCON debt from about N1.5b to about N400m.
They also have plans to do a debt-equity conversion programme and possibly raise additional capital in the market.
These and some other info may be responsible for its recent performance. But I don't know if it will continue the rally or decline or remain stable.

I think it is appropriate that you add that deap capital still have a negative equity of over 2b and they are still making loss.

https://businessday.ng/news/article/nigerias-money-supply-hits-historic-high-of-n122-9trn-despite-cbns-policy-tightening/

Those expecting a significant reduction in MPR by CBN might have to wait longer.....

Joyful365:
I would appreciate more clarity sir. I have tried to research but all results I'm getting is saying cgt will be paid based on acquisition cost and sales value which is confusing.

I have gone through the tax act but what is written there talks about item denominated in foreign currency which doesn't apply here.

I don't want to take decision only to later have issue with the tax people

You don't pay CGT when you change money from one currency to the other or makes deposit for shares.
You will only pay CGT when you buy shares and the price appreciates and you sell without reinvesting to buy another shares., that is why you have the acquisition cost and sales value

nosa2:
You are right but since we have been unable to find a solution to corruption then we are best using a development model that adds it as a factor. With regards to external policy, yes that too is a factor. So add it as a potential risk. So unless those things happen Naira will not collapse

We are still very much dependent on crude oil as a source of foreign exchange earnings.
A sustained downward movement in oil price will be a big challenge for naira stability.

awesomeJ:
you think if they split, it will only happen on ngx?

if they did 10 for 1 for instance, each stock would just simply now be worth N227 on NGX and N700 in london, would you be willing to sell 100k units of a stock worth 700 at 250??

I have just taken a look at their financial statements which was never done before.
I think I agree with your submission.

Agbalowomeri:
Is it the price you are worried about or lack of buyers? As long as there buyers at the current price, the market fine. Which is different from GEREGU where there are no buyers

There are no sellers so the price is stuck.
The company should just do a stock split or give bonus of 100 or 1000 for 1.