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Nairaland Forum / Nairaland / General / Politics / Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. (4903 Views)
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Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by Formularcr7: 5:00pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
Only APC primary can stop BAT from being the next president 6 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by Nobody: 5:01pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
slivertongue:How many times did OBJ try? |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 5:06pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
phelps007:Just like I opined. Not that millions don't see him as a better presidential material,but the structure isn't there and the way Nigerian democracy has been run has made it almost impossible for someone without major office holders support and financial war chest,to compete. 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 5:09pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
JaroMan: The North is bidding her time to shock the South if they play silly. The middle belt are at home with the South but the prospect seem to be fading. What is wrong if the South micro zone the ticket. I thought the South preaches equity. Give or take the NE has positioned theirs as either president or VP in APC or PDP 1 Like |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 5:11pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
DubaiLandLord2: You should answer |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 5:16pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
JaroMan:Don't be surprised to see Benue going to APC.Those are unpredictable lots.Niger State governor has backed Tinubu already.Kogi's margin maybe inconsequential or d governor even backs Tinubu if he gets reassurances. Turnout in Katsina/Bauchi maynot be that substantial because there is no Buhari they would rig the elections for;even if it turnout is substantial the margin of victory maynot be that substantial for either candidate in 2023. Your other assertions are also up for debate. |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 5:18pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
JaroMan:The way he eased Secondus out and the financial war chest of Rivers he is willing to use gives me the impression he would have a substantial input in whoever emerges. 3 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by JaroMan: 5:31pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
doctokwus:One factor you can't rule out is religion. A Muslim South with a Muslim north is risky. A Muslim South with a Christian north is risky. These are entrenched sentiments that must not be wished away. The 2nd term governors can't be trusted especially those that came in through Buhari. Except the assurance are Germaine, I don't see Tinubu beating any northerner 4 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 6:13pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
JaroMan:The bolded will be political suicide and every Nigerian politician knows it. A Ghanduje rooting for BOT maynot be for him to get the VP but a guarantee of a ministerial slot for eg and a say in any presidential appointee from Kano State. A Muslim North Christian South presidential ticket becomes quite tricky without majority support of Northern governors. Atiku from the North maynot be command an overwhelming or at least voter margin defining count and that would neutralise whatever else the other candidate will get from the other areas. But I honestly don't see an Atiku defeating Tinubu overall in the North.I just don't see it for whatever reasons.The machinery and political war chest that Tinubu seems to be garnering may neutralise whatever advantage a "our Northern brother" ticket would give Atiku. My analysis maybe faulty but I just have a gut feeling,Tinubu,less so,Osinbajo,will defeat Atiku even in the North. 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by fyneguy: 6:26pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
slivertongue: The North is actually more politically sophisticated than the South. MKO Abiola defeated Tofa in many northern states. The Northern political trajectory is largely influenced by their leaders/elites. Buhari and Kwankwanso are the only ones who have direct access to the commoners up there. Should their elites queue behind Tinubu, he will defeat PDP. 5 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by fyneguy: 6:33pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
doctokwus: Lol if you think Tinubu is still looking for money to prosecute his Presidential project, then you don't know him. Tinubu is the one funding APC in PDP-cobtrolled states. Do the maths lol 1 Like |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 7:06pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
fyneguy:I don't know about that.Just alluding to fact that his war chest would be very large whichever way he gets it. |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 7:44pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
fyneguy: Correct |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 7:54pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
fyneguy:People are always alluding more influence on electoral votes and the commoners of the North than Kwankwaso has actually been seen to have. Besides that,outside Kano,where else can Kwankwaso lay claim to being able to win? Also,Kwankwaso is a mirror image of Buhari as far as religious bigotry is concerned.No one wants even another 4 years of viewing a president's action through the prism of religious bigotry. |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by princdebola201(m): 8:11pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
slivertongue:bro you don't know how politics work in nigeria If you like test water or mpkurumiri 100 times if your party dont have a strong political structure you will keep loosing. Gej and yardua presidency was easy because they inheritted formidable political structure and power of incumbency. You guys actually overate atiku so much. Atiku never had or built any political structure all his life apart from jumping from one political party to another with his bag of dollars. He had no input in pdp 2019 performance apart from money. He lost his polling unit and region woefully. 70% of his votes came from pdp stronghold SS/SE. Without Atiku pdp will still poll over 10million votes in 2019. Infact kwankaso or Tambuwal would have better atiku performance in Core north 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 8:26pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
fyneguy: hmmm all this Superman traits. Delta, Ak, Rivers, bayelsa ain't in this club I even doubt Adamawa, Benue & Bauchi. These states have folks with mega cash who don't talk. If Amaechi could dole out over a 100 billion to APC what makes the state dependent on Asiwaju |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 8:38pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
fyneguy: Buhari is a religions leader backed by powerful Islamic clerics. Without them he is a nobody. Kwankwaso is sure popular but without political position he can do very little. Northern politics is built on religion &tribe. Buhari is still in the good books of these clerics but politically they are done with him, some boldly preach against his failed governance process. Most southerners over inflate the importance of individuals. Even Atiku who is one of the most influential here can't make such claims of having the North in his palms cos he knows how the people roll 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by Ttalk: 9:28pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
How I wish discussion on this forum would be interesting like this without throwing tantrum and jab with unnecessary taunting. The following factors are what I believe would shape the outcome of 2023 election 1. Performance: To every Nigerians, both APC and PDP have performed woefully and may not get tangible point for their performance. However, PDP has failed to capitalised on the poor performance of the present APC government, a national protest backed by PDP stalwarts would have been a good weapon to use during campaign, but their silence over the year could be interpreted by the electorate as admittance of guilt that they won't have done better. Again, the propangada used by APC to snatch power is still very much visible and they would deploy it to sell their achievement in infrastructure especially on rail transformation and agriculture. 2. Religion: This would create a greater problem for APC than PDP if the former decides to give it's ticket to Tinubu, there's little elite persuasion would do to convince average Nigerians who are very emotional when it comes to religion, chosing southern Muslim candidate and Northern Muslim or Christian VP would make APC loose many non active partisans from both south and north. 3. Candidate: APC would do better with a southern Christian candidate and a northern Muslim VP, this would just be natural and would not raise any religion sentiment across the two regions. PDP seems to have weak candidates from Atiku to Tambuwal or Pius Anyim, none of them seems to have passionate followers like Buhari and Tinubu command, though Atiku is a factor, but he hasn't boost his record in the eyes of Nigerians in the past 6years while in opposition rather than secluding himself from national politics by staying most past of his time in Dubai. If Tinubu and Atiku emerge, issue of corruption becomes neutralised as both men is seen as been corrupt and any party using that to win vote is just wasting his time. Osinbajo will gain more points for clean record on corruption when placed against Atiku Power of Incumbency: It is clear to Nigerians that APC would damn any consequence by weilding Incumbency power just like they did in Osun election. 3 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by YellowMayor(m): 9:32pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
slivertongue: Amaechi can never single handedly donate 100 billion to APC. There has to be someone or group of people behind the scenes. 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 9:43pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
slivertongue:Well said |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 10:57pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
YellowMayor: Seconded I guess Rivers State funds was part of it. Not donation oo, politicians don't donate huge funds directly to avoid wahala, they fund activities |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by slivertongue: 11:11pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
princdebola201: Well read about Atiku before making statements that are not totally correct same too to other personalities. In a bid for the South to occupy the villa they are making all manner of contentious statements. Atiku stood toe to toe with Abiola in 1993 &Abiola won. he refused to accept VP & refused to work for Abiola until his political boss Shehu Yar'adua called him to order. Yar'adua, Atiku, Kingibe &Pascal Bafau former NLC president did the ground work of Hope93 in the North with Zwingina leading the charge. Obj didn't pick him for nothing, but his tendencies caught up with him. Obj simply bought over Atiku's allies with contracts &positions but guess what the same people are back on the same page. No permanent friends &no permanent enemies in politics. Tinubu can't under rate the man he said encouraged him into politics, Asiwaju can't under rate a man people say threw dollars at delegates in 2015. Atiku's problem i once said on this forum is his drifting towards feudalism. He raised many politicians &public office holders who later choose their own path but are respectful of his person. Ribadu, Elrufia etc are examples. If you claim 70% of the votes for Turaki came from SS & SE. Please table the evidence. Yar'adua was a sitting governor &d darling of a sitting president. Delta & Bayelsa states resources largely funded the election. Gej enjoyed same grace until rebellion was sowed into the party by d 'comptrollers' of Nigeria. 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 11:50pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
slivertongue: |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by Top1gun: 11:55pm On Jan 20, 2022 |
You sabi 9ja politics, I will be surprising if you are Igbo n with this level of objectivity as many just wish their delusion is what must happen for Nigeria to exist. slivertongue: |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by princdebola201(m): 12:17am On Jan 21, 2022 |
slivertongue:el rufai and ribadu re not loyal to Atiku, they only served together under same administration,having respect for someone doesnt mean loyalty. Wike,okowa,dickson respects tinubu they speak well of him doesnt mean they re loyal to him. Atiku is only popular among northern Elites we all know the reason why. but when it comes to grassroot mobilisation and political structure Tinubu is miles ahead of him. Tinubu political structure is pronounced among grassroot and elites. Atiku had only one job in 2019 to win election he just needed to divide buhari votes in North and consolidate it with SS/SE/SW votes he lost woefully in north. Fyi Atiku is not getting PDP ticket in this year. PDP govs have thighten their grip on the party, they re now the decision makers. They won't waste their ticket on Atiku again. If not for the division among pdp governors in 2018,tambuwal would have won the primary. Okowa,dickson,ayade plus south east pdp won the primary for Atiku in portharcourt. He got over 90% of delegates votes in SE, SW,and half of SS. Meanwhile tambuwal got majority of his votes from northern pdp delegates. Atiku is literally out of PDP race, because south east pdp caucus too is interested in the primary and they have endorsed ayim. PDP govs might rub salt on his wounds if they finally agree on consensus candidate which is likely tamubwal/bala Mohammed 1 Like |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 12:39am On Jan 21, 2022 |
A Northern PDP ticket is a defeatist ticket in my view. It would further erode the followership of the party especially in the South. You can't as a serious party give 2 consecutive tickets to the North. The ticket would not even make any sense if APC where to field a Northerner,which is looking remote because as evil as the party is,they are beginning to accept the reality that another Northern ticket would literarily be the death knell of the party, particularly with a Tinubu having put his hat in the ring. Do they snub Tinubu and run the risk of having him form a third party and take away a large chunk of the South Western votes at least that may hand power back to the PDP if Tinubu doesn't win? Do they cage him by using the EFCC against him?This would be obvious to all besides the fact that the entire court process will drag on definitely beyond 2023. The permutations are not straightforward and so the PDP had better take the lesser risk by fielding a Southern candidate. 1 Like |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by michlins(m): 2:19am On Jan 21, 2022 |
Do your calculations and analysis, but I will vote for the worst Southern candidate before I will allow North to get my vote. If we make the mistake of them retaining power, the South might not smell it again ever 5 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by Echoban: 5:32am On Jan 21, 2022 |
slivertongue: The way some of u just call billions self. Come how much is Total worth of Rivers state that Amaexhi a state Gov will be drilling out 100Bill 3 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by YellowMayor(m): 7:21am On Jan 21, 2022 |
Echoban: He's even a minister, no longer a governor in the last general election. 100Billion not possible from a minister. Even from a juicy ministry. 1 Like |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by doctokwus: 7:40am On Jan 21, 2022 |
michlins:This opinion is shared by many. Fortunately there doesn't seem to be any Northern candidate out there that can do the job better than ANY southern one. 2 Likes |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by Echoban: 8:19am On Jan 21, 2022 |
YellowMayor: U dey mind the guy Even Lagos State self can't doll out 100bill like that make e no shake.. That's the loan Lagos collected from CBN to complete red and blue light rail. |
Re: Why Tinubu Nomination Will Give The PDP A Presidential Choice Dilemma. by DMerciful(m): 8:41am On Jan 21, 2022 |
Look at 2015 and 2019 election, the margin from the entire SW is not more than 300k. You think Yorubas make up more than 60% of Lagos? You think all Yoruba will vote for APC? Your analysis is not data based. In Lagos alone, APC has not defeated PDP more than 100k votes inspite of rigging using agberos doctokwus: 4 Likes |
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