doctokwus:

Please I am not a Tinubu advocate.
This is an analysis of the current position of things as I see it.
For me an Osinbajo,Umahi or Anyim would be preferable and a breath of fresh air,but you are looking at a candidate with a heavy war chest and some governors that don't give account to anyone & ready to spend their state treasury, already lining up behind him.
Take an eg,a simple arithmetic of the new ₦800 daily bus levy in Lagos: assuming there are 100k buses per day.A day gives ₦80m.Monthly gives ₦2.4billion!
From now till end of 2022 makes ₦24b!!
If Lagos State turns over that entire 24b to Tinubu,that maybe more than enough to buy him the delegates needed for the primary election and ₦10k to each electorate to buy 2million votes with the present poverty level in Lagos State!!!

Nobody is falling for your pretences or how else would be making these baseless projections?

If Tinubu is on the ballot, a PDP candidate can get up to 45 percent in Lagos....The Igbos and other Nigerians delivered for Jonathan there in 2015.

It all needs a well-cordinated campaign to expose Tinubu excesses and shenanigans in Lagos and you then see that he is not that unbeatable...

How does Tinubu win in Benue where APC is somehow associated with Fulani herdsmen who have invariably left bloodletting their wake?

Ortom might not tick all the boxes, but he is intensely popular in the state...

Besides, the likes of Iyorchia Ayu, PDP national chairman and David Mark are formidable powerbrokers from this state....

Where did he get the money?

fyneguy:


Lol if you think Tinubu is still looking for money to prosecute his Presidential project, then you don't know him.

Tinubu is the one funding APC in PDP-cobtrolled states. Do the maths lol

doctokwus:

The bolded will be political suicide and every Nigerian politician knows it.
A Ghanduje rooting for BOT maynot be for him to get the VP but a guarantee of a ministerial slot for eg and a say in any presidential appointee from Kano State.
A Muslim North Christian South presidential ticket becomes quite tricky without majority support of Northern governors.
Atiku from the North maynot be command an overwhelming or at least voter margin defining count and that would neutralise whatever else the other candidate will get from the other areas.
But I honestly don't see an Atiku defeating Tinubu overall in the North.I just don't see it for whatever reasons.The machinery and political war chest that Tinubu seems to be garnering may neutralise whatever advantage a "our Northern brother" ticket would give Atiku.
My analysis maybe faulty but I just have a gut feeling,Tinubu,less so,Osinbajo,will defeat Atiku even in the North.

At least you confessed that your grasp of things is weak...

You know little about the political behaviour of northerners...

If Tinubu faces Atiku in 2023, then it will be a cakewalk for Atiku in the north...

Forget the diversionary noise being made by some northern politicians, they will not vote for a southerner over their kin in today's Nigeria...

The most laughable assertion one hears is that Atiku is not popular in the north...Maybe we should also hear that Atiku cannot speak Hausa.

People tend to forget that Atiku is from the North East which is yet to get its chance...I cannot see the powerbrokers of the north allowing the South West two turns at the presidency when a key part of the north is yet to get one.

This is Nigeria and the kingmakers are no fools....

princdebola201:
el rufai and ribadu re not loyal to Atiku, they only served together under same administration,having respect for someone doesnt mean loyalty. Wike,okowa,dickson respects tinubu they speak well of him doesnt mean they re loyal to him.

Atiku is only popular among northern Elites we all know the reason why. but when it comes to grassroot mobilisation and political structure Tinubu is miles ahead of him.
Tinubu political structure is pronounced among grassroot and elites.

Atiku had only one job in 2019 to win election he just needed to divide buhari votes in North and consolidate it with SS/SE/SW votes he lost woefully in north.

Fyi Atiku is not getting PDP ticket in this year.
PDP govs have thighten their grip on the party, they re now the decision makers.
They won't waste their ticket on Atiku again.

If not for the division among pdp governors in 2018,tambuwal would have won the primary.
Okowa,dickson,ayade plus south east pdp won the primary for Atiku in portharcourt. He got over 90% of delegates votes in SE, SW,and half of SS. Meanwhile tambuwal got majority of his votes from northern pdp delegates.

Atiku is literally out of PDP race, because south east pdp caucus too is interested in the primary and they have endorsed ayim.

PDP govs might rub salt on his wounds if they finally agree on consensus candidate which is likely tamubwal/bala Mohammed

I don't easily use the word 'loyal'. So I doubt I used 'loyal' in my interventions especially with regards to Elrufia & Ribadu.
Am not God to know the results of 2023 PDP or APC presidential primaries Anything can happen.

Going forward, the race is more about party as much as it is about individuals. Your claim that SE & SS provided 70% of the votes of the PDP in 2019 presidential election is yet to be substantiated, yet you moved over to the party primary to further make claims that 90% of Atiku's votes came from the south & again without the least proof.

PDP governors were in charge until the intervention of the 'Generals' without the shuttle diplomacy of TY danjuma in prevailing on Gej to call those helped to power to play along, Turaki wouldn't have won. The primary was well scripted to avoid rancour. Same could be done for the benefit of any candidate.


Asiwaju visited one of the 'Generals' he will do more visits to them same as other candidates. These 'Generals' are the 'owners' of the North & with their southern 'compradors' the 'comptrollers' of Nigeria

princdebola201:
el rufai and ribadu re not loyal to Atiku, they only served together under same administration,having respect for someone doesnt mean loyalty. Wike,okowa,dickson respects tinubu they speak well of him doesnt mean they re loyal to him.

Atiku is only popular among northern Elites we all know the reason why. but when it comes to grassroot mobilisation and political structure Tinubu is miles ahead of him.
Tinubu political structure is pronounced among grassroot and elites.

Atiku had only one job in 2019 to win election he just needed to divide buhari votes in North and consolidate it with SS/SE/SW votes he lost woefully in north.

Fyi Atiku is not getting PDP ticket in this year.
PDP govs have thighten their grip on the party, they re now the decision makers.
They won't waste their ticket on Atiku again.

If not for the division among pdp governors in 2018,tambuwal would have won the primary.
Okowa,dickson,ayade plus south east pdp won the primary for Atiku in portharcourt. He got over 90% of delegates votes in SE, SW,and half of SS. Meanwhile tambuwal got majority of his votes from northern pdp delegates.

Atiku is literally out of PDP race, because south east pdp caucus too is interested in the primary and they have endorsed ayim.

PDP govs might rub salt on his wounds if they finally agree on consensus candidate which is likely tamubwal/bala Mohammed

You showed your hand when you asserted that SE PDP have endorsed Anyim...

That is a ridiculous joke...Who is Anyim?

Atiku will most likely pick the PDP ticket with Obi again as the VP candidate...

Read between the lines...the Igbos have gone beyond the days where more than 20 people would be vying for one position thereby weakening their political capital.

This is the era of strategic moves..try and read the memo very well...

maestroferddi:
At least you confessed that your grasp of things is weak...

You know little about the political behaviour of northerners...

If Tinubu faces Atiku in 2023, then it will be a cakewalk for Atiku in the north...

Forget the diversionary noise being made by some northern politicians, they will not vote for a southerner over their kin in today's Nigeria...

The most laughable assertion one hears us that Atiku is not popular in the north...Maybe we should also hear that Atiku cannot speak Hausa.

People tend to forget that Atiku is from the North East which is yet to get its chance...I cannot see the powerbrokers of the north allowing the South West two turns at the presidency when a key part of the north is yet to get one.

This is Nigeria and the kingmakers are no fools....

The disunity of the South would be their bane. The North is actually counting on the feelings in the SE &SS. Should the Southern APC give any to of the pair &stay united they may get the support of the NC &win. And should the South back SW without breaking ranks & with NC support they may win.

But I doubt cos NC, NE & SE are yet to get there, while SS got 'half a shot'. The powers that be may want to placate the SE or SS with either P &VP. NW & SW are truly out of the picture.

Echoban:


The way some of u just call billions self.

Come how much is Total worth of Rivers state that Amaexhi a state Gov will be drilling out 100Bill

Rivers govt is worth about 400billion annually.

He was accused of cleaning govt
savings few months to elections

DMerciful:
Look at 2015 and 2019 election, the margin from the entire SW is not more than 300k. You think Yorubas make up more than 60% of Lagos? You think all Yoruba will vote for APC?


Your analysis is not data based. In Lagos alone, APC has not defeated PDP more than 100k votes inspite of rigging using agberos

I quite agree with u on the margin of victory in Lagos State being between 100k-200k.
But that becomes significant if u factor other things.
Reduced rigging and d absence of the "herdsmen mentality" Buhari had on northern voters will also significantly if not totally erase the wide margins any Northerner will get from states like Kano,Bauchi, Katsina.
SouthEasterners will for the foreseeable future not produce more than 30% turnout in elections,even in the days before ipob.So SE margin becomes insignificant.
In contests as that,a 100k becomes quite useful for any candidate.

slivertongue:



The disunity of the South would be their bane. The North is actually counting on the feelings in the SE &SS. Should the Southern APC give any to of the pair &stay united they may get the support of the NC &win. And should the South back SW without breaking ranks & with NC support they may win.

But I doubt cos NC, NE & SE are yet to get there, while SS got 'half a shot'. The powers that be may want to placate the SE or SS with either P &VP. NW & SW are truly out of the picture.

My friends from the South West have gotten carried away.

It is like we didn't see how the northern political chess grandmasters fought tooth and nail to ensure that power came back to the north after Jonathan emerged after Yar'Adua demise....

How they will allow the SW two turns at the presidency when two sections of the north and indeed the SE are yet to benefit is difficult to see...

The north believe they wave the upperhand in the Nigerian powerplay...

Their puppeteers will not allow a section of the South to get a one up against them.
They know that a SW presidency in 2023 will have serious ramifications in the future...Least when a wily old fox like Tinubu is the one positioning himself to lead the charge.

Politics is not about emotions and fantasies but making tough calls...they will sure not get it wrong...

Igbos outside SE are more than Igbos in SE! If electronic collation and transmission is eventually adopted then Nigeria would know that Igbos are the second largest voting block.

Let APC make the mistake of approving electronic transmission, it will be game over!

doctokwus:

I quite agree with u on the margin of victory in Lagos State being between 100k-200k.
But that becomes significant if u factor other things.
Reduced rigging and d absence of the "herdsmen mentality" Buhari had on northern voters will also significantly if not totally erase the wide margins any Northerner will get from states like Kano,Bauchi, Katsina.
SouthEasterners will for the foreseeable future not produce more than 30% turnout in elections,even in the days before ipob.So SE margin becomes insignificant.
In contests as that,a 100k becomes quite useful for any candidate.

maestroferddi:
Nobody is falling for your pretences or how else would be making these baseless projections?

If Tinubu is on the ballot, a PDP candidate can get up to 45 percent in Lagos

How does Tinubu win in Benue where APC is somehow associated with Fulani herdsmen who have invariably left bloodletting their wake?

Ortom might not tick all the boxes, but he is intensely popular in the state...

I made allusion to the candidate PDP presenting being a dilemma and a factor for them due to the Tinubu conundrum.
In all honesty do u think a Northern PDP candidate in the mould of the Bauchi governor will garner up to 25% of Lagos votes and will defeat a Southern APC candidate significantly in the East?I doubt.
On the other hand,a Southern PDP candidate can galvanise southern votes to make Lagos a tough call and defeat Tinubu significantly in the SouthEast and SouthSouth.
Something tells me that in Benue State,Ortom may not eventually be looking at the party per se but on the candidate.If he decamps to APC later I wouldn't be surprised.If he remains in PDP and does not actually campaign all out for the PDP candidate,I wouldn't also be surprised.Many Nigerian politicians,including Tinubu to further their interests have be known to backstab their own party candidates.

doctokwus:

I quite agree with u on the margin of victory in Lagos State being between 100k-200k.
But that becomes significant if u factor other things.
Reduced rigging and d absence of the "herdsmen mentality" Buhari had on northern voters will also significantly if not totally erase the wide margins any Northerner will get from states like Kano,Bauchi, Katsina.
SouthEasterners will for the foreseeable future not produce more than 30% turnout in elections,even in the days before ipob.So SE margin becomes insignificant.
In contests as that,a 100k becomes quite useful for any candidate.

It is not all about shouting here and hollering there...

You are getting the political participation of the South East all wrong ..

Before 2015 it was said that the Igbos don't turn out for elections but lo and behold we saw how the change the permutations in Lagos...

There are underground moves to get a political solution for Nnamdi Kanu's incarceration so it is not inconceivable that the IPOB issue get solved in the near future.

IPOB will lapse into near irrelevance as soon as an Igboman becomes the president of Nigeria....

doctokwus:

I made allusion to the candidate PDP presenting being a dilemma and a factor for them due to the Tinubu conundrum.
In all honesty do u think a Northern PDP candidate in the mould of the Bauchi governor will garner up to 25% of Lagos votes and will defeat a Southern APC candidate significantly in the East?I doubt.
On the other hand,a Southern PDP candidate can galvanise southern votes to make Lagos a tough call and defeat Tinubu significantly in the SouthEast and SouthSouth.
Something tells me that in Benue State,Ortom may not eventually be looking at the party per se but on the candidate.If he decamps to APC later I wouldn't be surprised.If he remains in PDP and does not actually campaign all out for the PDP candidate,I wouldn't also be surprised.Many Nigerian politicians,including Tinubu to further their interests have be known to backstab their own party candidates.

Tinubu's maverick tendencies will surely prove his albatross...

If the South were united going into the 2023 elections then, their chances of emerging victorious would have been very bright.

Instead, Tinubu fueled a misguided sense of power decided to thwart what was supposed to be a seamless process: Allow the SE their turn for the sake of Southern unity which Azikiwe and Awolowo we're unable to achieve.

Tinubu's action will play into the hands of the north...Noone needs to be clairvoyant to predict that Tinubu or indeed any Southerner will be beaten by a northern candidate from any of the two major parties.

People keep shouting about Lagos but they forget that Buhari, the last person to sit and watch as northern interest gets jeopardized, can deploy mechanisms to ensure that elections in Lagos are not rigged.

Were the above scenario to play out, I am struggling to see how Tinubu can garner the moonslide he needs to offset the tsunami which will naturally come from the 3 Ks....

BTW, Bala Mohammed can never be in the equation of PDP flagbearer.

Wike is not as formidable as he is made to appear: He has lost out before and there is nothing suggesting that he will not lose again.

doctokwus:

The bolded will be political suicide and every Nigerian politician knows it.
A Ghanduje rooting for BOT maynot be for him to get the VP but a guarantee of a ministerial slot for eg and a say in any presidential appointee from Kano State.
A Muslim North Christian South presidential ticket becomes quite tricky without majority support of Northern governors.
Atiku from the North maynot be command an overwhelming or at least voter margin defining count and that would neutralise whatever else the other candidate will get from the other areas.
But I honestly don't see an Atiku defeating Tinubu overall in the North.I just don't see it for whatever reasons.The machinery and political war chest that Tinubu seems to be garnering may neutralise whatever advantage a "our Northern brother" ticket would give Atiku.
My analysis maybe faulty but I just have a gut feeling,Tinubu,less so,Osinbajo,will defeat Atiku even in the North.

If not for the abysmal and catastrophic performance of APC 2023 should be the easiest election for any APC candidate.
While Tinubu seem to have an upper hand on Atiku, all the sins of APC and Buhari will be unleashed on him (Tinubu) nationwide! Just like how GEJ suffered all sins of PDP.
With the looming removal of subsidy Tinubu or any other APC candidate is doomed. Unless they decide to go all out and rig everything like they did in Kano inconclusive election.
Atiku might be the next president.

princdebola201:
el rufai and ribadu re not loyal to Atiku, they only served together under same administration,having respect for someone doesnt mean loyalty. Wike,okowa,dickson respects tinubu they speak well of him doesnt mean they re loyal to him.

Atiku is only popular among northern Elites we all know the reason why. but when it comes to grassroot mobilisation and political structure Tinubu is miles ahead of him.
Tinubu political structure is pronounced among grassroot and elites.

Atiku had only one job in 2019 to win election he just needed to divide buhari votes in North and consolidate it with SS/SE/SW votes he lost woefully in north.

Fyi Atiku is not getting PDP ticket in this year.
PDP govs have thighten their grip on the party, they re now the decision makers.
They won't waste their ticket on Atiku again.

If not for the division among pdp governors in 2018,tambuwal would have won the primary.
Okowa,dickson,ayade plus south east pdp won the primary for Atiku in portharcourt. He got over 90% of delegates votes in SE, SW,and half of SS. Meanwhile tambuwal got majority of his votes from northern pdp delegates.

Atiku is literally out of PDP race, because south east pdp caucus too is interested in the primary and they have endorsed ayim.

PDP govs might rub salt on his wounds if they finally agree on consensus candidate which is likely tamubwal/bala Mohammed

Which structure does Tinubu have in the northern part of Nigeria? What can his allies like Ganduje in Kano do for him? Ganduje did not even win his last election squarely.
Who told you that Atiku wont get PDP ticket this time around? This same horse trading that occurred last time could take place again. The governors from the south like Wike are only justling for VP ticket. Everybody saw what Atiku was able to do against a sitting president and many imagine what could happen this time around.
SE is not interested in the ticket rather they want the VP ticket.

EazyMoh:


Atiku might be the next president.

An Atiku ticket against a Southern candidate provides a problem.2019,in areas where elections were free and fair there was support for Atiku in the South because he was contesting not just against a disastrous president but a fellow Northern one in Buhari.
2023 the parameters change if he gets pitted against a Southerner.

Maduawuchukwu:


Which structure does Tinubu have in the northern part of Nigeria? What can his allies like Ganduje in Kano do for him? Ganduje did not even win his last election squarely.
Who told you that Atiku wont get PDP ticket this time around? This same horse trading that occurred last time could take place again. The governors from the south like Wike are only justling for VP ticket. Everybody saw what Atiku was able to do against a sitting president and many imagine what could happen this time around.
SE is not interested in the ticket rather they want the VP ticket.

the same scenario that played out last time for Atiku to clinch the ticket is not obtainable this time.
The only visible anti Atiku govs in PDP then was wike,fayose,tambuwal. Others stood their ground for atiku.
Pre2019 South east had 3 govs and and deputy senate president all rooting for Atiku then the support is no longer there again.
https://igberetvnews.com/1411657/2023-south-east-pdps-leaders-stakeholders-endorse-anyim-presidency-photos/

Okowa,ayade,dickson,udom also supported atiku too against wike.

The govs re no longer divided on presidential candidates. They have resolved to select among themselves


https://www.nairaland.com/6844514/2023-pdp-governors-back-colleague

maestroferddi:
You showed your hand when you asserted that SE PDP have endorsed Anyim...

That is a ridiculous joke...Who is Anyim?

Atiku will most likely pick the PDP ticket with Obi again as the VP candidate...

Read between the lines...the Igbos have gone beyond the days where more than 20 people would be vying for one position thereby weakening their political capital.

This is the era of strategic moves..try and read the memo very well...

joke south east is not even in the equation again

The ticket is now for south south region/ south west
https://www.nairaland.com/6844514/2023-pdp-governors-back-colleague

princdebola201:
the same scenario that played out last time for Atiku to clinch the ticket is not obtainable this time.
The only visible anti Atiku govs in PDP then was wike,fayose,tambuwal. Others stood their ground for atiku.
Pre2019 South east had 3 govs and and deputy senate president all rooting for Atiku then the support is no longer there again.
https://igberetvnews.com/1411657/2023-south-east-pdps-leaders-stakeholders-endorse-anyim-presidency-photos/

Okowa,ayade,dickson,udom also supported atiku too against wike.

The govs re no longer divided on presidential candidates. They have resolved to select among themselves


https://www.nairaland.com/6844514/2023-pdp-governors-back-colleague

Of cause the SE would endorse Anyim, it is all part of the political bargains for VP.
The governors will back different candidates depending on the promises and concessions each of the aspirants give them.

doctokwus:

An Atiku ticket against a Southern candidate provides a problem.2019,in areas where elections were free and fair there was support for Atiku in the South because he was contesting not just against a disastrous president but a fellow Northern one in Buhari.
2023 the parameters change if he gets pitted against a Southerner.

The parameters will change in the SW. I fully agree but it would likely not change a thing in the SE/SS. Also acknowledge the fact that Atiku is poised to win more votes in the north this time around.

doctokwus:
A Northern PDP ticket is a defeatist ticket in my view.
It would further erode the followership of the party especially in the South.
You can't as a serious party give 2 consecutive tickets to the North.
The ticket would not even make any sense if APC where to field a Northerner,which is looking remote because as evil as the party is,they are beginning to accept the reality that another Northern ticket would literarily be the death knell of the party, particularly with a Tinubu having put his hat in the ring.
Do they snub Tinubu and run the risk of having him form a third party and take away a large chunk of the South Western votes at least that may hand power back to the PDP if Tinubu doesn't win?
Do they cage him by using the EFCC against him?This would be obvious to all besides the fact that the entire court process will drag on definitely beyond 2023.
The permutations are not straightforward and so the PDP had better take the lesser risk by fielding a Southern candidate.

PDP had;
Obj - South
Yar'adua - North
Gej - South
2019 - North X
2023 - North

PDP knows her game. If PDP had won in 2019, 2023 wudnt be an issue.

APC has;
GMB - North
2023 - South

Southern Nigeria should put her house in order then take a shot as a united front cos there is nothing like ' political South' but to some extent there is 'political North'.

From the look of things the minorities in the middle belt are already mobilizing their equals in the SS, the SS will then reach out to SE with whom they have close affinity. I think Asiwaju's handlers are aware of this thus the visits to the North.

Asiwaju can't afford to breakaway. If he breaks away, it changes nothing cos someone will still emerge as President. Maybe even from APC. Do well to check the figures contributed by the South to GMB's victory 2019 especially from SW. The North holds the upper hand &if they choose any of the South believe me victory is assured. Asiwaju won't go back to regional politics it generates no goodwill. Moreover GMB is not as generous as his former 'ally' Gej who allowed for the registration of APC. No new registration of party for him. He is wiser.

Op I suspect you are using this thread to weigh opinions so as to build a projections. Tell us ooo cos this thread is headed for the permanent site

slivertongue:


Op I suspect you are using this thread to weigh opinions so as to build a projections. Tell us ooo cos this thread is headed for the permanent site

Honesty, nothing like that.
I just wanted this to be a dispassionate look at the presidential field seeing Tinubu is making all the moves,sort of blackmailing actors to support him and brickwalling others not to contest;Osinbajo looks like weighing his options and PDP look like they are in a serious mess in deciding where their ticket should go.
Presidential election is just a year away(February 2023) and one candidate is making all the moves and noise.Is it by June when going at this rate,Tinubu would have consulted and garnered support from critical quarters that the others would make their move?
If for eg,Tinubu gets formal backing from many state governors and power brokers,by late in the campaign would the stakeholders now go back on their word to support an Osinbajo when he then formally decides to run?

Maduawuchukwu:


Atiku is poised to win more votes in the north this time around.

If he emerges the PDP candidate.I also don't see him doing significantly better than he did in 2019.

doctokwus:

Honesty, nothing like that.
I just wanted this to be a dispassionate look at the presidential field seeing Tinubu is making all the moves,sort of blackmailing actors to support him and brickwalling others not to contest;Osinbajo looks like weighing his options and PDP look like they are in a serious mess in deciding where their ticket should go.
Presidential election is just a year away(February 2023) and one candidate is making all the moves and noise.Is it by June when going at this rate,Tinubu would have consulted and garnered support from critical quarters that the others would make their move?
If for eg,Tinubu gets formal backing from many state governors and power brokers,by late in the campaign would the stakeholders now go back on their word to support an Osinbajo when he then formally decides to run?

Op don't mind that 's' that sneaked into 'projection' making it 'projections'.

Op am sure you've heard the saying, 'no bi person wey call police dey win case' & 'no bi who first score goal dey win match'.

Asiwaju understands the challenges he faces. He may run out of steam the way he is running from place to place. He should first concentrate on the SW then the region before going Northwards. Without the South the main election is a disaster waiting to happen.

In 1993 IBB didn't listen to his 'power folks' not to go ahead with Muslim Muslim Presidency but he wouldn't listening thinking it would appeal to them. Gbam they prevailed on him to scuttle it after collecting Abiola's money. If Abiola was allowed to pick the former NLC president , Abiola may have ruled. So Tinubu's early start may not turn out in his favor.

PDP is deliberately playing hide &seek. They know where they are headed. The are mildly combative as an opposition, why? They are allowing APC to wallow in the thinking they are doing great &to allow the electorates to test the full measure of the incompetence of the APC so that when they come knocking the electorates will give them a listening ear. If you want to kill PDP push them to zone the ticket. They want a contest, only this way rancour will be reduced if not eliminated. APC should have less problems. Why? It's ticket should go south but the southerners are at each others throat due to disunity.

Buhari= Muslim= 8 years

Tinubu= Muslim= 8 years again?

And we are clamouring for power shift to the south. Why not also power shift to another religion ?

NEVER

Instead power remains in the NORTH than to go to another southern muslim

princdebola201:
the same scenario that played out last time for Atiku to clinch the ticket is not obtainable this time.
The only visible anti Atiku govs in PDP then was wike,fayose,tambuwal. Others stood their ground for atiku.
Pre2019 South east had 3 govs and and deputy senate president all rooting for Atiku then the support is no longer there again.
https://igberetvnews.com/1411657/2023-south-east-pdps-leaders-stakeholders-endorse-anyim-presidency-photos/

Okowa,ayade,dickson,udom also supported atiku too against wike.

The govs re no longer divided on presidential candidates. They have resolved to select among themselves


https://www.nairaland.com/6844514/2023-pdp-governors-back-colleague

You are just building on confusion in PDP. What if Atiku chooses not to contest & supports someone with his arsenals. Or the party presents him as their choice?

slivertongue:



You are just building on confusion in PDP. What if Atiku chooses not to contest & supports someone with his arsenals. Or the party presents him as their choice?

there is no confusion in PDP, the govs conducted a successful congress and convention. The govs were able to wield out general boys in the congress and convention. Notable mention is brigadier general oyinlola, the generals wanted him to succeed secondus only for seyi makinde candidate (Arapaja)to emerge for the south west slot.

Atiku ambition has been buried before his eyes during congress and convention. The nwc members were handpicked by the govs..

And there is no division among the govs.they have resolved select pdp flagbearer among themselves. Atiku can waste his money as usual but he is not going to touch pdp ticket

princdebola201:
there is no confusion in PDP, the govs conducted a successful congress and convention. The govs were able to wield out general boys in the congress and convention. Notable mention is brigadier general oyinlola, the generals wanted him to succeed secondus only for seyi makinde candidate (Arapaja)to emerge for the south west slot.

Atiku ambition has been buried before his eyes during congress and convention. The nwc members were handpicked by the govs..

And there is no division among the govs.they have resolved select pdp flagbearer among themselves. Atiku can waste his money as usual but he is not going to touch pdp ticket

Am shocked you don't know Ayu & Atiku are allies

princdebola201:
there is no confusion in PDP, the govs conducted a successful congress and convention. The govs were able to wield out general boys in the congress and convention. Notable mention is brigadier general oyinlola, the generals wanted him to succeed secondus only for seyi makinde candidate (Arapaja)to emerge for the south west slot.

Atiku ambition has been buried before his eyes during congress and convention. The nwc members were handpicked by the govs..

And there is no division among the govs.they have resolved select pdp flagbearer among themselves. Atiku can waste his money as usual but he is not going to touch pdp ticket

I also don't see an Atiku getting the ticket this time.
I have this inkling the PDP may wait and if it sees the APC giving the ticket to a Southerner,may follow suit.

slivertongue:



Am shocked you don't know Ayu & Atiku are allies

Is their alliance still that strong to stand d test of time and valgaries of Nigerian politics?

slivertongue:



Am shocked you don't know Ayu & Atiku are allies

. Since 1993

slivertongue:



Am shocked you don't know Ayu & Atiku are allies

Ayu ayu is more like a temporary chairman. Dont forget he emerge as a consesus candidate by pdp govs. He wasnt elected on balot.

the incumbent chairman is the deputy chairman south( Arapaja) seyi makinde candidate. Once pdp gov preferred candidate emerge from North arapaja will take over from Ayu.

Ayu signed an agreement to step aside once a northerner emerges as pdp flagbearer.
https://www.newtelegraphng.com/pdp-chairmanship-ayu-agrees-to-resign-if-north-produces-presidential-candidate/

So literally ayu is just a figure head chairman