I read a NL thread https://www.nairaland.com/7077990/why-tinubu-lose-osinbajo-apc#up suggesting reasons why PYO will defeat BAT in the APC primary election to select who flies the ticket of the party in 2023 and I could not help but to laugh at the naivety and desperation of the writer. Well, without paying any attention to the weak and unfounded reasons he presented in his article, I make bold to advance the following arguments to conclude that Jagaban Borgu remains the only candidate who will win the primary contest, barring any last-minute jettisoning of primaries for consensus which is not even contained in the constitution of APC.

1. Tinubu’s political structure and machineries
Even, his political foes will attest to the fact that BAT has built a well-oiled political structure that has not only survived the best of political warriors in OBJ and GEJ (with federal might), his structure has endured the worst of political earthquake and has remained very solid and functioning. In the primary contest for the presidential candidate which will be decided by delegates from APC across the 36 states, Tinubu structure will come in hand to deliver the goods.

2. BAT’s political alliance
This is somewhat related to the first point but not entirely the same. In the course of single-handedly building and strengthening his political base (ACN), Tinubu it was who took ACN into alliance with CPC, ANPP, a faction of APGA and a faction of PDP. In fact, most political watchers agreed that the 2 most important figures in that successful alliance that produced APC are Buhari and Tinubu. The rest were only needed to make up the numbers and the spread. BAT has since that alliance built a working relationship with strong politicians in the north. The likes of Ganduje, Ribadu, Ado Dogawa, Ahmed Lawan, etc. are staunch Tinubu’s supporters who will deliver the delegates from that side of the country.

3. Neutrality of PMB
PMB remains a political juggernaut whose support and influence can, to some extent determine who wins the APC ticket. From what I have read and heard, it was this support that Osinbajo was looking for that delayed his declaration. Unfortunately for him, PMB did not assure him of anything, instead preferring to be neutral and asking all the contestants to work hard to win the ticket. While it is possible for PMB to have a preference for PYO (highly doubtful), Buhari has demonstrated many times that he handles situations like this with utmost maturity and fairness to all involved. If he has forgotten how BAT deployed his resources to make him defeat Atiku and Kwankwaso in 2014 and to win the presidency in 2015 and 2019, he will surely be reminded by his close allies like Ganduje and the Senate President of this fact. And Buhari will choose to remain neutral. It is PYO who needs PMB so much and not the other way round.

4. Clear message of endorsement by the APC Senate and Rep Caucuses
Not many watchers of political development will have missed the enormous support Tinubu enjoys from the APC senators and representatives. They are not hiding it and they have been saying it loud and clear even to the hearing of PYO. You only need to watch the Senate session when BAT paid the APC caucus a visit to intimate them of his ambition. You can also listen to Ado Doguwa’s recent interview on the same subject
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xqe6AQllcPA and here https://www.nairaland.com/7079123/doguwa-speaks-bola-tinubus-aspiration. I also read that of the seventy-something invited by PYO for Iftar, only 24 or so honored the invitation with majority of them spotting facemask with BAT logo. These speak volume about their position. They are the people that matter in this election and they are not politicians you can intimidate to change their mind. They believe in BAT and they are ready to reward his past support for them too.

5. Osinbajo has no political structure
After seven years of being the VP of Nigeria, it is a fact that PYO has no political base or structure of note with which he can be guaranteed of delegates votes. This is someone who lost his polling booth in the last general election. Irrespective of whatever sentiment anyone in the party top hierarchy may want to have for a PYO candidacy, they will realize what a dangerous option his candidacy represents for their party and they will bury the thought without wasting time.

6. Perception of PYO as someone who cannot be trusted
Like it or not, Osinbajo’s declaration has portrayed him as someone who cannot be relied upon. In politics, the currency is loyalty and anyone who is perceived as not loyal is usually avoided by those who matter. Even among those currently propping the professor on, there are those who will be murmuring within their heart that the VP cannot be trusted not to betray them at some point, especially if he becomes president and thus untouchable. I will personally be weary of such character too. Yes, he has the constitutional right to contest but he has thrown morality to the dustbin by standing up to challenge his one-time political mentor. I read a piece about how Tiinubu reluctantly agreed for Osinbajo to be the running mate to PMB out of the three names suggested to him. The fact that BAT’s choice was still going to be picked and that he eventually agreed to PYO being named as the running mate is enough for our erstwhile star boy to abandon his ambition for BAT’s.

Anyway, let’s see how far the support of sycophants and traducers of Tinubu can carry him in his quest to wrestle APC’s ticket from Jagaban.

Passingshot (O.S. Olayiwola)

Seriously I don't know why people can't decode that Prof. Yemi Osinbajo was the 'closet candidate' of PMB.

The gut & courage of Osinbajo to openly challenge his erstwhile benefactor can only be motivated by a mortal superior power backing, who is Mr. President.
No one else could have prompted him out for this challenge, not even an audible voice from God. This is why Osinbajo shouldn't be underrated in this contest.

It is also important to note that the political dynamics of 2023 will be entirely different from 2019. This time around PMB will be interested in who succeeds him. He has already shown that through the election of the APC national executives.

The Nigeria leadership factor shouldn't be wished away. We've already concluded that all Nigeria politicians are the same so, PMB may equally be tempted to play god. That means that PMB to a large extent he'll play pertinent role in who emerges. We should not also forget that he will still remain the president after the primaries for couple of months, so it'll be extremely difficult for governors especially from the north to go against his wish.

Again much is always said about political structure but we shouldn't forget that 'structure' can be built, inherited and bought.

Conclusively this is politics and anything can happen to change the balance of power. One meeting of like minds with Mr President can send BAT to oblivion.

"Absolute power does not only corrupt but attract the corruptible"- Frank Herbert

Asiwaju baba Seyi , your direction is what we will follow. We will never stop supporting our leader

It will be difficult for Osinbajo to beat Tinubu in APC primary.

Tinubu has a political structure of over 25 years

Osinbajo is a VC president of Nigeria (Federal)

God bless you OP.

Asiwaju Jagaban is the only contestant that have structure to win the primaries himself without needing anyone to help him through the back door.

The Meth addicts that suddenly started supporting Osinbajo are just playing the normal divison game. If Osinbajo gets the ticket, they will suddenly start hating on the man too, the current support is all a ruse.

However, anyone of the two that eventually gets the ticket will get our support. Meth addicts are in for a great surprise.

God bless Asiwaju Tinubu
God bless Osinbajo

12M naira speaking from his minions.

According to a Yoruba Muslim.

It remains for Tinubu's bot accounts to continue with their automated response.

islandsscotch8:
Asiwaju baba Seyi , your direction is what we will follow. We will never stop supporting our leader

Osinbajo will be taught a classic political lesson.

IDeyNL:
According to a Yoruba Muslim.

It remains for Tinubu's bot accounts to continue with their automated response.

A proud Muslim for that matter.

A proud Yoruba too.

Karlovich:
12M naira speaking from his minions.

baba suffer no day taya Nigerians I swear

I pray he doesn't win, let him go and enjoy his stolen funds in peace, haba ,the human greed is insatiable

Asiwaju Jagaban!

Osinbanjo all the way

Jagaban Borgu.

A man with sense!

Tinubu oh, Osinbajo oh, anyone who emerges as the flagbearer will get 100% support from Nigerians.

What Nigerians don't want to see on the ballot is Emeka. 

Damnnn niggar

He go shock thier two

The North will never permit Tinubu become president
he will become uncontrollable .

The north needs a weak man they can control like Osinbajo

LeoDeKing:
Tinubu oh, Osinbajo oh, anyone who emerges as the flagbearer will get 100% support from Nigerians.

What Nigerians don't want to see on the ballot is Emeka. 

All I know is that Power MUST come South

Below is my own reason why.

1 In 1999, Governor Tinubu initiated and commenced the era of reform, rehabilitation, rebuilding of the education sector in the state with a view to making public schools, especially at the primary level, attractive to the populace;

2 Governor Tinubu repositioned the education sector through the creation of enabling environment and the continuation of the teacher training programs as well as improved the welfare package for teachers in the state (My Achievements By Tinubu, The Vanguard, Tuesday July 13, 1999, Front Page);

3 Between 2006 -2007, Governor Tinubu activated the injection of massive funds to the tune of N1 billion for LASU;

4 Rehabilitation of primary and secondary schools in all Divisions of the state through the Schools Rehabilitation Program, massive construction of school furniture and equipping of laboratories;

5 In 2000, Governor Tinubu activated the provision of free education in all public primary and secondary schools including payment of WAEC/NECO fees as well as all internal examination fees to ensure that indigent children do not drop out of school.

6 In July 20, 1999, Governor Bola Tinubu ordered that his monthly basic salary be paid to four rehabilitation centres until further notice. The beneficiaries of this charity are: Pacelli School 1 and 11 (Surulere), Modupe Cole Children Care and Treatment House (Yaba) and The Spinal Cord Injury Association of Nigeria (Ikeja) National Concord Tuesday 20, 1999 Pg. 3;

7 Provision of free qualitative education for all students in all owned primary and secondary schools irrespective of their state of origin;

8 Payment of NECO/WAEC Examination fees totaling 1.4 Billion was expanded on 572, 032 SSS III Students for eight consecutive years irrespective of their state of origin;

9 Rehabilitation of Secondary schools, the building of prototype classrooms and resuscitation of abandoned classrooms in projects in 38 schools;

10 Provision of 2000 new blocks of classrooms in primary schools;

11 Construction of 4 millennium secondary schools each with 39 classrooms, staffs room, library, laboratories, and 60 toilets as a new model for public schools;

12 Provision of 500,000 new desks and chairs for primary and secondary schools thus eliminating the need for children to carry their furniture to and from home as it were before 1999;

13 Provision of educational materials for the teaching of science subjects;

14 Paid N127 Million as bursary/scholarship awards to over 4,000 students in Tertiary Institutions;

15 Provision of additional 2,500 new classrooms to the school system through the Special Committee for the rehabilitation of public schools which rehabilitate 250 schools at a cost of N2.8 billion

16 Expenditure of N505 million on emergency repairs of falling roofs, damaged ceilings, collapsed fences and provision of drainages in 133 under the SAVE OUR SOULS project;

17 Construction of additional 1, 272 classrooms and provision of perimeter fencing, drainage channels, laboratory equipment and bore holes in 123 schools at a cost of N3.4 billion;

18 Six (6) Education Districts were created as part of the Post Primary Education Reforms;

19 Six (6) Tutor Generals who were formerly School Principals were also appointed to manage the districts;

20 A total number of 48 Schools were returned to original owners: these include 26 to Moslem owners and 16 to individual owners;

It's clear that many of BATs zombies can't even read political writings but just move based on vibes ...Okay let me tell you something , NON of them will get the APC ticket , the APC convention will be a gathering to ratify Buharis consensus Candidate and they shall abide

LeoDeKing:

ewi

The only reason I would want Tinubu to win presidency is so that I could benefit from contracts. I'm currently dating his niece �

I want APC and PDP out so this opinion does not matter.

But OP is very very right, either way.

Osibanjo cannot win because he is the classic Nigerian technocrat. Most technocrats in Nigeria, North or South, don't love going into politics properly...only a few (El Rufai, Fashola, Obi, etc ) go into big time politics. And the three I have mentioned all started out as houseboys to big men, and are now growing on their own...except Fashola who is keeping quiet.

At the end, classic Nigerian technocrats don't win. They are the kids who when they were in school, did very well in their academics, and got sent to the big city to graduate from university, and get a good job. Meanwhile, the dull kids stayed at home...and when the time came for their people to look for good leaders, that's when the people looked at the available ones...and it was the dull kids. (Rarely, intelligent kids touch base...eg Tinubu and Obi, but those are rare).

And the technocrats don't go home, don't touch base, don't show face. Then one day they find out that the dull kids are now their leaders and they start grumbling. But why should we grumble? The dull kids were sharp enough to realize that leadership is a result of being available..and when they were available, they got the job.

So, osibanjo is not going to win. It is sad, but that is the way of Nigerian politics. Only way technocrats can win is by riding on the cottails of a big Nigerian politican...which is how Yaradua and GEJ got there. Normal political route? Sorry .We don't 'know' you, Master technocrat.


Modified

True story...one Hausa gent from Kaduna was complaining about no job after graduating with a degree in Mathematics. Meanwhile his primary school mate that he left behind in primary 6, who stopped school then, was now a councillor. Why wasn't he a councillor? Simple...while he was in the big city getting his degrees, when his people looked for a leader, he was nowhere. Meanhwile, his primary 6 dropout mate was.....

Moral for Nigerian 'technocrats'.

Osinbajo 2023 ride on Sir.

Everyone giving his opinions

Ok o

Our own na to the wait how it will play out

Yoruba's dont love themselves, thats why Osinbade is running against his master

E go shock you

21 Under the coalition of for the Restoration of Education Empowerment and Development (CREED), cheques worth N185 million were distributed to 263 Schools for maintenance of structures, 103 Senior Secondary Schools, 115 Junior Secondary Schools, 5 Technical Schools and 40 Primary Schools;

22 Between 1999-2007, Tinubu overhauled and sustained the payment of bursary awards to Lagos State Students in higher institutions including Law School;

23 Tinubu initiated the development of Computer education and provision of equipment to special schools;

24 Tinubu approved the construction of staff quarters and provision of motorized boats for primary school’s teachers in rural/riverine areas;

25 Tinubu Introduced free mid-day meals for primary schools (from June 2001);

26 Tinubu approved the upgrading of schools to Model College and return of Board of Governor);

27 Tinubu’s administration spent N14.37 million on the rehabilitation of toilets, quarters, hostels, administrative blocks, classrooms, workshops, prototype building of TESCOM and LED offices in some schools;

28 Tinubu’s administration , via Ministry of Education Re-focused and re-shaped the policy and curriculums of Lagos State Education System;

29 In conjunction with Unilever/Nestle/Cadbury, Tinubu’s administration, approved the provision of free nutritious milk to primary school pupils;

30 Tinubu articulated and Initiated free education program for the over 1.5 million children 900 primary and 597 secondary schools;

31 Well over N100 million was expended from 2004-2006 on Unified Internal Education introduced by Tinubu’s administration to improve the quality of teaching and learning in the state’s secondary schools;

32 The sum of N135 million was disbursed as annual subvention to five special schools for the handicapped Modupe Cole Children Care and Home, Atunda–Olu School for the physically handicapped, Wesley School 1 & 11 for the deaf and National orthopedic Special Schools);

33 The ministry of education provided furniture for students and teachers of four newly established public secondary schools at a cost of N29.8 million;

34 Sixteen (16) schools were provided with wall fence to ensure safety of students at a cost of N11.4 million;

35 N1 billion was expanded on the massive rehabilitation/reconstruction of over 60 public primary and secondary schools across the state (250 new classrooms already completed out of the 750 envisaged);

36 Tinubu’s administration ensured regular payment of teachers salary as opposed what was formerly obtainable;

37 Between May and December 1999, Ten Thousand (10,000) dual desks and benches were supplied to 100 schools in 20 Local Education Districts (LED) at a cost of N30 million;

38 Tinubu’s administration contracted and engaged the services of Adebowale Furniture Company and Harmon Household Furniture at a cost of N25.2 million for the supply of additional 10,000 dual desks and benches;

39 Forty –One (41) secondary school buildings at the twenty (20) Local Government Areas were rehabilitated at a cost of N50.2 million in 2000;

40 For meaningful development to take place in the schools, Tinubu’s administration gave marching order to Ministry of Education to pick one hundred Secondary Schools, but to start with at least five schools per LED for total rehabilitation of existing structures and provision of education facilities in fiscal year 2000;

41 A total sum of 1. 5 million was expended for the Installation of JSS introductory technology facilities/equipment in 3 secondary schools namely: Ivory Grammar School, Ibeshe – Amuwo/Odofin LED, Sari-Iganmu Secondary School, Apapa – Apapa LED, keke High School, Ifako-Ijaiye LED)

42 A total sum of N750, 000 was expended on the supply of Ten (10) intro-technology workshop benches in five secondary schools, namely: Ivory Grammar School, Ibeshe – Amuwo/Odofin LED, Sari-Iganmu Secondary School, Apapa – Apapa LED, keke High School, Ifako-Ijaiye LED; Civil Service Model College, igbogbo – Ikorodu LED)

43 Ten Metal bench vices at a total cost of N400,000 were supplied to the following schools: African Church College, Ifako – Ifako/Ijaiye LED, Civil Service Model College, Igbogbo – Ikorodu LED;

44 A sum of N3, 822, 748 was spent on the conversion of intro-tech workshop at Ivory Grammar School, Ibeshe;

45 Seventeen (17) schools were provided with wall fences in the state in 1999. The total length was five thousand, two hundred and thirty-one metres (5231 metres) at a cost of N22,156 million;

46 Twenty –five (25) secondary schools within 20 LEDs were supplied with science equipment (Biology, Chemistry, and Physics) at a cost of N19.95 million;

47 Pioneered the up-grading of schools (Oriwu College, Ikorodu-Ikorodu LED, Agbowa/Ikosi Methodist High School, Agbowa – Epe LED, Iworo/Ajido High School, Ebute-Olofin – Badagry LED, Methodist Boys High School, V/Island – Lagos Island LED, Vetland Grammar School, Agege – Agege LED) to models college status;

48 In 2000, Tinubu’s administration approved the setting up of technical committee by the Ministry of Education to renegotiate with the contractors formerly handling abandoned school projects;

49 In 2000, Tinubu approved the re-award and completion of 10 JSS workshops at a cost of N14.3 million;

50 Bola Tinubu gave a marching order to the State Tenders Board to reappraise the submission of technical committee for the re-award of 25 prototype classroom blocks at a cost of N111 million at Ibeju-Lekki, Epe LED;

51 Through the Ministry of Education, Tinubu ordered the supply of special equipment to Atanda-Olu School for the physically handicapped, Surulere, at a cost N321,000;

52 Through the Ministry of Education, Tinubu ordered the supply of special equipment to Modupe Cole for Mentally slow School, Akoka, at a cost of N161,000;

53 Through the Ministry of Education, Tinubu ordered the supply of special equipment to National Orthopedic Special School, Igbobi, at a cost of N199, 500;

54 Through the Ministry of Education, Tinubu ordered the supply of special equipment to Wesley School 1 for the Deaf, Surulere, at a cost of N504, 000;

55 Through the Ministry of Education, Tinubu ordered the supply of special equipment to Wesley School 11 for the Deaf, Surulere, at a cost of N377, 000;

56 Through the Ministry of Education, Tinubu ordered the supply of special equipment to Deaf Unit of State Grammar School, Eric Moore, Surulere at a cost of N1,819, 000;

57 Tinubu’s administration approved the provision and installation of teaching aids worth of N2 million for both primary and secondary schools, tagged 3 new priority machines ( Maxima Paper Cutting Machine; 211 offset printing machine; and Platen Latter Press/Numbering Machine)

58 Bola Ahmed Tinubu, at the inception of his administration in May 1999, was determined to strengthen the existing Five Technical College in the state to a standard form. Asiwaju demonstrated this by releasing the sum of N16.16 million for the installation of heavy technical equipment that were purchased since 1991 at the Government Technical Colleges Ikotun and Ado-Sabo respectively;

59 A sum of N85 million was approved and released, by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s administration, for the Lagos State University (LASU) for its 3 campuses for the provision of infrastructural facilities at the campuses;

60 A sum of N158, 916,521.11 million was approved and released, by Asiwaju Bola Tinubu’s administration, for the Lagos State University (LASU) for the completion of its on-going projects in 2000-2002