RabbiDoracle:


After the 10% rise in that month, what next? Hold, sell or buy more?

You seem to be interested in data based research. Good one.

Try finding solutions to :

- (1) why price rise to a point (or price band) and then stops.
-(2) why price falls to a point ( or price band) and then stops.
- (3) why when this (either of the two points mentioned above) are happening, an event (news, catalyst) occurs afterwards to propel (up or down) the price enforcing a trend.

This will help you know the max/min possible price an asset can get to before it hits inflection point.

Why did I write these?

Remember Facebook, Netflix and lots of other stocks in the US. Many analyst from Goldman Sachs to Morgan Stanley kept the rating on hold or overweight until the bad earnings hit. Very few gave strong sell rating.

The infection point had been reached [case (1) above], then the event [case (3) above] was the earnings result which became a catalyst for the fall.

Once you know these, you will, to a reasonable extent, be able to forecast inflection points on every single asset. Not 100% though, but the research (financial adventure) should help you understand how prices behave.

sonofElElyon:


Oga people posted the results and the "posters" had good things to say which was why I sought better clarification...
Please read the origins of my posts.. wow....
If you read further you would see that I hold ucap zenith uba access wapco chams courteville and some others.. you seem to have selective amnesia

yMcy56:

To you, you don insult Mcy be that oo...

C'mon bros, you can do better than that.........the "behind licker" was an old mantra and stale cos the insult wey I don chop here plenty gan ni ......... I expect new "attackers" to be creative and come up with much powerful insult, lol.........

Anyway, you're too touchy and you need to work on anger issues seriously. If you're vexing online like this over something you ought to laugh off, I wonder how your real self will be........

Be calming down bros. Mcy relates with everyone here and will support anyone based on the assessment of the situation, circumstance and interpretation of what the post looks like to her. Mcy is a cool and calm person in reality and thus takes things so lightly.

Oga Emma doesn't mean to insult you but said that literarily......maybe based on the stocks you're always coming up with.
To me his post was just to drive home the point that you might have been looking at investing in "ponzi" when considering Unity Bank.

As for respect, me oooo, I don't demand respect from people......but guess my personality does. Anyone fit pocket im respect, me no need am, na money I need as you dey see me so. E se pupo.

yMcy56:

To you, you don insult Mcy be that oo...

C'mon bros, you can do better than that.........the "behind licker" was an old mantra and stale cos the insult wey I don chop here plenty gan ni ......... I expect new "attackers" to be creative and come up with much powerful insult, lol.........

Anyway, you're too touchy and you need to work on anger issues seriously. If you're vexing online like this over something you ought to laugh off, I wonder how your real self will be........

Be calming down bros. Mcy relates with everyone here and will support anyone based on the assessment of the situation, circumstance and interpretation of what the post looks like to her. Mcy is a cool and calm person in reality and thus takes things so lightly.

Oga Emma doesn't mean to insult you but said that literarily......maybe based on the stocks you're always coming up with.
To me his post was just to drive home the point that you might have been looking at investing in "ponzi" when considering Unity Bank.

As for respect, me oooo, I don't demand respect from people......but guess my personality does. Anyone fit pocket im respect, me no need am, na money I need as you dey see me so. E se pupo.

emmanuelewumi:




Nigerians have lost over N600 billion in the last 4 years to Ponzi schemes and order High Yield Investment Scheme


There was a case of a lazy who lost N2 million to MBA forex and wanted to commit suicide, her friends and family raised the N2 million and advised her not to commit suicide. Unfortunately 8 months after the lady lost another N3 million in Chinmark.

We have former Ponzi scheme Investors who are now investing in the stock market.

These are there characteristics

1. They are concerned about the upside without thinking about the downside ie they have poor risk management.

2. They are always playing catch up, that is they are trying to recover the money they lost to Ponzi very fast through the stock market...

3. They are aggressive and easily offended

4. They believe this time will different, so they are always out for the next highly speculative position...

5. They have a very poor sense humour.

6. They are not ready to take responsibility for the negative outcomes of their Investments.

7. They are never happy with themselves, the cause is usually psychological

8. They are on the lookout for the next miracle that will turnaround their previous financial and Investment mistakes.

emmanuelewumi:




Nigerians have lost over N600 billion in the last 4 years to Ponzi schemes and order High Yield Investment Scheme


There was a case of a lazy who lost N2 million to MBA forex and wanted to commit suicide, her friends and family raised the N2 million and advised her not to commit suicide. Unfortunately 8 months after the lady lost another N3 million in Chinmark.

We have former Ponzi scheme Investors who are now investing in the stock market.

These are there characteristics

1. They are concerned about the upside without thinking about the downside ie they have poor risk management.

2. They are always playing catch up, that is they are trying to recover the money they lost to Ponzi very fast through the stock market...

3. They are aggressive and easily offended

4. They believe this time will different, so they are always out for the next highly speculative position...

5. They have a very poor sense humour.

6. They are not ready to take responsibility for the negative outcomes of their Investments.

7. They are never happy with themselves, the cause is usually psychological

8. They are on the lookout for the next miracle that will turnaround their previous financial and Investment mistakes.

GreatEko:


Enough of this, please.

The guy has moved on.

You should also let it go.

RabbiDoracle:


After the 10% rise in that month, what next? Hold, sell or buy more?

You seem to be interested in data based research. Good one.

Try finding solutions to :

- (1) why price rise to a point (or price band) and then stops.
-(2) why price falls to a point ( or price band) and then stops.
- (3) why when this (either of the two points mentioned above) are happening, an event (news, catalyst) occurs afterwards to propel (up or down) the price enforcing a trend.

This will help you know the max/min possible price an asset can get to before it hits inflection point.

emmanuelewumi:



I am sorry I don't invest in what I don't understand, unregulated Investments and High Yield Investment Schemes


I remember you wanted me to invest in your logistics business about 3 years ago which I politely turned down and advised you on what you needed to do in other to get fund from banks and finance houses..


Never knew you still have a grudge with me because of this.


Ponzi schemes will give about 3% of the participants money but 97% will lose money big time.

There is a relationship between people who invest in Ponzi schemes and dead stocks which can give the lucky few a 200% return in few months

emmanuelewumi:



I have also moved on, that doesn't negate the fact that we have former Ponzi schemes investors on NSEMPA who are still suffering from the psychological trauma of their losses, some lost their life savings to such schemes

yMcy56:
TRANSCORP
Tony's ally are stepping in small small.........
Quite some Director's dealings, which most likely includes his family members........
Toby Elumelu, Elumelu Ogochukwu, etc.
Reason for the aggressive accumulation witnessed on Friday I think.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Notification_of_Share_Dealing_(Elumelu_Onyekachukwu).pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Notification_of_Share_Dealing_(Elumelu_Ogochukwu).pdf
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/170_Notification_of_Share_Dealing_(Elumelu_Onyinye).pdf

ositadima1:



*Stocks go up and down in response to changes in perception of a company’s ability to generate earnings and pay dividends

*Changes in perception can arise from developments within the company, in the company’s competitive environment, or in the economy in general.

How far in any direction is beyond my scope, I need to learn some more.

ositadima1:


Talking of aggressive accumulation, some people are accumulating Oando, despite no financial statements to work with. I see 30 to 40% increase from CP in a few months time or even sooner. Mr Loco mentioned it too.

ositadima1:



*Stocks go up and down in response to changes in perception of a company’s ability to generate earnings and pay dividends

*Changes in perception can arise from developments within the company, in the company’s competitive environment, or in the economy in general.

How far in any direction is beyond my scope, I need to learn some more.

RabbiDoracle:


At bottom inflection point, prices change (start to rise) even when fundamentals are still bad. So you see that the earnings lag price movements.

Likewise at the top inflection point, prices change(start to fall) when the fundamentals are still perfect. So when the earnings are released, it confirms the trend.

So that inflection point looks like a constant which is determinable.

RabbiDoracle:


Sometimes yes, many times No.

Example

Zenith bank

2017 YE was reported in early 2018.

So let's look at these earnings.

2016
PBT 156B PAT 129B

2017
PBT 203B PAT 177B
interim, final dividends : 0.25 and 2.45

2018
PBT 231B PAT 193B
interim, final dividends : 0.3 and 2.50

2019
PBT 243B PAT 208B
interim, final dividends : 0.3 and 2.50

Remember 2019 YE was reported in early 2020

This is a beat!

Yet Zenith stock price fell from N32. 65 in February 2018 to N10.70 in March 2020. This was a 67% uninterrupted decline in price even when earnings were stellar and dividends increased.

At inflection point, irrespective of fundamentals things change.

ositadima1:
The Graham number (or Benjamin Graham's number) measures a stock's fundamental value by taking into account the company's earnings per share (EPS) and book value per share (BVPS).

The Graham number is the upper bound of the price range that a defensive investor should pay for the stock.

Sqrt(22.5 * EPS * BVPS)

According to Graham, Zenith at anywhere below 84 Naira is a buy. Is it true?

ositadima1:
The Graham number (or Benjamin Graham's number) measures a stock's fundamental value by taking into account the company's earnings per share (EPS) and book value per share (BVPS).

The Graham number is the upper bound of the price range that a defensive investor should pay for the stock.

Sqrt(22.5 * EPS * BVPS)

According to Graham, Zenith at anywhere below 84 Naira is a buy. Is it true?

Mcy56:

Seplat is definitely not for the impatient ones, it's mostly for value/dividend investors.
It doesn't fall anyhow like that.......and once it falls, it always have a way of finding its feet back........one way or the other.
Except there's a major bad hit, I don't see it in the league of Total and Mobil (I mean the listed downstream arm)..........but in the league of ExxonMobil et all.
This is just my opinion based on my observation and little knowledge of the stuffs upstream coys are made of.
I may still be wrong. I get better ogas and gurus who are much knowledgeable here. It's just my amateurish opinion.

Mcy56:
If interested, you can pick your copy at sub 300......I see this fall as an opportunity.......but I may be wrong sha.

Mcy56:
INTBREW: Bargain hunters on queue.
** Nigeria opened up "Owambe" parties, brewery sales will most likely go up.
** Before 2023 approaches, Nigeria govt will most likely relax her harsh policies on breweries because APC is already sensing stiffer competition from PDP come 2023 national election.
** Long termers will benefit from brewery sector from the look of things.
** Targetting bottom is key.
** Just my personal opinion. I may be wrong.**

samguru:
I hear say people wey dey heavily loaded in Caverton wan offload at any price today?

Hmmm, one oil major terminate their contract with the coy, Access bank don dey sharpen himm cutlass incase caverton loan won show stubborn head

I also hear say, 2021 Q4 heavy loss was not natural, say some ogas cash out from inflating contracts.

All wella and good just take am easy oooo, Caverton will weather the storm and bounce back stronger.

Wish you Bullish week

Taystee:
On what app can I trade the Nigeria stock?