yMcy56:
UCAP
Recognition for AFRICA's best growing company

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36044_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC%20RECOGNITION_BY_FINANCIAL_TIMES_LOND.pdf

I just hope Uncle Tony will leave UCAP as an independent company and not try to create UBA-Holdings with UCAP as a Subsidiary.

You can't predict these Guys.

UBA
These guys @7.90 though!!
They just lined up bids at that junction to be packing @7.95......
Make dem allow the price fall if that's what they wanted nah..

OBAGADAFFI:
I just hope Uncle Tony will leave UCAP as an independent company and not try to create UBA-Holdings with UCAP as a Subsidiary.

You can't predict these Guys.

There was unbundling before from what I read......
UBA unbundled UCAP, APR and maybe some few other subsidiaries.......
So there can't be any "Holding" again.......all things being equal.

yMcy56:

There was unbundling before from what I read......
UBA unbundled UCAP, APR and maybe some few other subsidiaries.......
So there can't be any "Holding" again.......all things being equal.

.......all things being equal.

In pidgin inglis, should we sell our holdings?

yMcy56:

No one is talking about this?

* If 9 out 10 is to be cancelled, then it will be in ratio 1:10..... i.e. One for every 10 held......
If you have 2M units for instance it will become: 2M÷10=200k.....
*Let's say the closing share price before suspension is placed is 30k, then the new reconstructed price will be 10x0.30 =N3.00 be that.....
* Lol. If MM should step in here like WEMA did, it may end up paying off........cos there's going to be some pumping here.

Ok. Let me not be too Forward.
Let's wait for further communication and breakdown of how it will go.......
Oga Labalaba, abeg if you first see the update, help post am and put me in copy abeg.

ojesymsym:
In pidgin inglis, should we sell our holdings?

Just ignore that, 0.22koko stock.

Even if them give bonus, i no go buy.

ojesymsym:
In pidgin inglis, should we sell our holdings?

Make you no sell oo.
There may be pumping here in coming days.....
Dem go communicate details of how dey wan do the process later, this one go give clear direction.
Na just my opinion.........I fit be right or wrong....

I think it's not a high risk stock considering the share price, which you might have picked @20k least/minimum price self.
Final decision is yours afterall.

OBAGADAFFI:
......all things being equal.

Na so.
As Nigeria Coys concern, they can wake up tomorrow and do the unexpected again.

It seems Morgan Capital does not work well on phone? Na wa o

yMcy56:

There was unbundling before from what I read......
UBA unbundled UCAP, APR and maybe some few other subsidiaries.......
So there can't be any "Holding" again........all things being equal.

GTB bought back their erstwhile subsidiary from Investment One.

So, there is a possibility UBA might also buy back their former subsidiary(ies) as these subsidiaries are still within Tony's control and influence.

YourhealthNG2:
It seems Morgan Capital does not work well on phone? Na wa o

Could be due to heavy workload around this time.
Then you know, in the process of generating CHN for you, they'll contact CSCS and all those stuff.

Copy info@morgancapitalgroup.com in all your correspondences.

Nigerialabalaba:


na lie be dat but even sef Seplat no get d money. Dem be Oando 2.0 wey dey disguise.

If to say FG block Oando dat time, Oando shareholders for no enta soup now. NNPC na private now and make we watch.

Seplat na alaaru ti on je buredi joor.

NNPC get d money https://businessday.ng/news/article/nnpc-secures-5bn-afreximbank-funding-for-upstream-sector-investment/

But NNPC is not profitable, FGN should allow the private sector to buy the assets of ExxonMobil.

yMcy56:

Could be due to heavy workload around this time.
Then you know, in the process of generating CHN for you, they'll contact CSCS and all those stuff.

Copy info@morgancapitalgroup.com in all your correspondences.

I think he is talking about using phone for trading!! It depends on the type of phone he is using!!

emmanuelewumi:



But NNPC is not profitable, FGN should allow the private sector to buy the assets of ExxonMobil.

If you know nigerian politics very well, then you know that the said national interest might not necessarily be the interest of the nation.

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36050_PRESCO_PLC%20_AUDITED_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2021_FINAN.pdf

emmanuelewumi:



But NNPC is not profitable, FGN should allow the private sector to buy the assets of ExxonMobil.

That's the best practice....
Very funny indeed....
Rejecting consent from a coy with xpertise and dual listing..
and alignin with NNPC that managed to publish ...
audited financial report after 43 yrs.....
We know the endgame... it will end up in the hand of the Northern Elites..

onegentleguy:
Though it may not deliver a similar ROI margin, CHAMS can well be the next COURTVILLE.
I look at the coys last 3 FP, and I see VALUE.
Reward is well ahead of the combination of risk and current mkt price (even @ >>10% premium to it)

...already highlighted this before now.
There are quite some positive to make out from the coys financial print.

CAVEAT: Due diligence still applies as always.

Selah

yMcy56:
CHAMS
Meeting resolution:
** To change name from CHAMS Plc to CHAMS HOLDING COMPANY PLC....

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36027_CHAMS_PLC%202022_AGM_RESOLUTIONS_OF_CHAMS_PLC_CORPORATE_.pdf

Soon, some folks will look back and lament on why they didn't align with that coy CHAMS now.
...then, Mr Time will help them understand that the current mkt price was indeed a giveaway!

It is well.

onegentleguy:


Elsewhere, I have just added @ CADBURY Plc and @ ELLAH LAKES Plc to the list above. (possible candidates for a merger/acquisition or possible buy out/MTO in view)

I suspect that at least 3 other companies on the list above could also follow through... on or before the end of next year. (the 2 companies above inclusive)

2 coys from the list are already in line to be fulfilled.
Might be helpful to keep an eye on these coys.

Selah

CADBURY has already delivered over 105% since the post above.
...up from approx N8.5 then to the present price of N17+
Closed on bid today... still has some way to go.

Btw, take note of the other company highlighted in that post.

NOTE: Due diligence still applies as always.

onegentleguy:


In truth, LINKAGE should have absolutely no business trading @ <N1.31

But it's really not about Onegentleguy or anyone else.
You don't need to be scared of anyone.

Somewhere between the act of investing and the expectation of REWARD is something called VOLATILITY... and volatility is RISK.
What we try to do is see how we can play around (tap from) the constantly changing "gap" btw feasible RISK and inherent REWARD.

Sometimes you will be right... at other times you will be wrong... No human is perfect.
...for as long as you lay out your views on the foundation of fact and/or other logical input, but without an ill intent, then it is welcome.
The KEY is to ensure we WIN more and lose less, whether as investors or traders.

No one should be perceived as being bigger than any platform. We are all here to help each other grow.

Pls keep up the good work!
Regards.

@ mcy56 trust you still remember the post above!

Some folks probably forget that LINKAGE ASSURANCE owns a core stake (circa 11.76%) in Stanbic Ibtc Pensions. ...Nigeria's biggest PFA/PFC, accounting for near 40% of the country's total pension fund with FUM/AUM in excess of N11 Trillion.

Buying LINKAGE @ <50k was tantamount to getting an insurance policy for a business/asset worth over N10 for almost nothing!
...more like transferring the risk of financial loss for an asset with a face value of N10 and paying nothing in return. (ref: >> 5x multiple from CMP raking-off SRP)

The present mkt price is rediculously cheap... because even if you value LINKAGE using just 5% of the coys portfolio in Stanbic Pensions, it's FV would compute to N2.16.
And by the way, they own about 11.76%, not 5%.

My only regret was selling off the coy to position in other coys... but I know its gonna do well.

Hear this!
With certain insurance coys, buying into their present mkt peg is like getting them for free.
Only the assets/subsets they own is enough to take their prices to above N1.5!
I have since said that some select insurance companies are way too grossly undervalued!

LINKAGE ASSURANCE has already stated it's gradual push up.
....SOVEREIGN TRUST, REGENCY ALLIANCE and WAPIC getting ready.

Elsewhere, keep an eye on CHI, VERITAS KAPITAL, GUINEA INSURANCE, ROYALEX, MBENEFITS and the few other names we've highlighted here in time past.

The rise in certain select INSURANCE COYS will be epic when it begins!

Take position... but ensure to do so, permuting from among the right names.
...I already gave enough guide in time past.

Need further brief on the INSURANCE SECTOR? ...kindly surf through my many past post for more guidance.

Enough said!

ololufemi:
One major reason why a lot of the banking sector players with Holding Company structures want to set up a PFA is to enable them leverage on their customer database, branch network for customer acquisition and funds being retained, investment opportunities from securities and listings as well as bank assurance or insurance services that captures the annuity market which has been gradually eating into a section of the pie in the pension industry.

You are absolutely correct!

Regards

onegentleguy:

Now ur beginning to see what we saw in UNILEVER.
See the 2nd post above.

The company is struggling along several key revenue and earnings line. ...they've had unfavourable payment terms and are still struggling to push sales despite the over 3x acceleration in expense line to support that.

I was suppose to include it on the list of antifragile coys, but I didn't(see the 1st post above).
While most of their product line are what u may consider as essential items(Lux soap, Knorr maggi cube, Close-up, Omo, Vaseline, Blue band margarine, Lipton tea... etc), the company made some mistakes in their marketing strategy, the aftermath of which was a drop in MARKET SHARE despite price stability. ...particularly in the food and home & personal care business units.

That mistake, coupled with a lack of innovation meant that consumers sought for alternatives with lower price points, while their own distributors struggled to push sales.
...the result? A glut/surge in inventory and a sharp fall in receivables. A combination of unfavourable business enviroment and excessive cost input(particularly overheads) meant that most of those receivables became non-performing, forcing the company to tighten credit terms. ...I expect this to pose some strain to earnings in the short term(see the 1st part in bold from 2nd post above)

Elsewhere, the company still has worries with cash obligations as trade payables increased without matching remittances, while the thing about funding mismatch meant that the group's book continues to be riddled with high interest debt.
Indeed, there are clear worries in UNILEVER, but let me stop here.

It is not all gloomy though. Looking at certain figures in their 2019 YE FP, I believe the company still have the cash, a robust product line and manpower to turn things around. Management only need to be more PROACTIVE and EFFICIENT !!
The equity price might rise but folks should note the last part in bold from the 2nd post above.

On a side note, PZ also did experience most of these struggles, but is currently in a better position(state of health) than UNILEVER.

DISCLAIMER: NOT to be infered as any sought of recommendation.
My advise: Pls kindly follow ur instinct.

onegentleguy:

Frankly, the financial print from Unilever was totally expected !!
...the signs were there from Q3, 2019. I mentioned it here back then.(see post above)
Highlights at the time;

• 1st was the border closure which pressured export.
• Then there was the matter of decreased sales in goods at the back of a competitive enviroment(from decelerating purchasing power) given the chase for lower price points/alternatives from consumers on the local front.
...the result?
• A huge backlog of non-performing receivables. ...particularly in the food and H&PC segments of business.
• There was need to curb it down to avoid a strain in WC(working capital) that could potentially create a funding mismatch with time.
• Management decided it was best to cut off all their distributor lines and engage the service of a sole distributor to exclusively market their product.
...this though, would come at a cost.

The challenge...
That decision to disengage all distributor line came in Q3, 2019 and was due to kick-start in Q4.
Fast-forward to the covid-19 era and u do not need a soothsayer to tell u that their distribution chain would likely be stiffled as the pandemic brought with it, severe supply disruptions.
...now for a company that was already going through a phase of lower demand(decreased sales), it was only going to be a matter of time before that strain(both from the supply and demand side of the curve) results in a loss in market share.
This is why u see decelerating gross margin amid a continuously pressured(lower) inventory turnover.(the last 3 quarters in view)

My view...
I think it would've been better to go the PZ route of allowing for a slightly added duration in repayment plan or put a modality in place to improve on receivables, instead of cutting off all distribution lines.(well, no one saw covid-19 coming)

Coys in the FMCGs are well positioned to benefit from the curent worries(most are anti-fragile) but Unilever already had an issue before now !!
...as a result, they were'n't able to tap into the benefit from the corona-induced environment.

The FPs of PZ, UACN and FLOURMILLS will likely witness an improvement from previous quarter.(slight for PZ though)
PZ was also struggling before now but their next financials should come in better than previous print.

I highlighted some of these worries in Unilever here back then. ...though I also mentioned that those keying in should do so for trading and nothing more.
At the time, TA signalled a buy @ N10+... before it rose to over N16 then. refer to link; https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/5592#88765140
Selah

A pivotal line of disclosure...

Over 2 yrs ago (btw Q2-Q3, 2019), We highlighted the worries in the company UNILEVER Nig Plc.
Before that time, I gave an underperform/sell rating given the coys near N30 market price.

Fast forward to Q1, 2020 and things only worsened for the company with inherent risk consistently taken a bite from what should've been due to an investor.
See 2 amongst the last post I put out back then. (Note the lines therein)

Within that period, risk was clearly ahead of the combination of REWARD and price with the continually pressured MoS resulting in the jettisoning of the stock by value investors. ...and unsurprisingly, the coys equity peg underperforming both it's sector and NGX index in the last 2 yrs.

What has changed?

Many of the major risk drivers highlighted then have been dwarfed by the company's present stance. (diminishing effect in view) ...with improvement recorded accross several key revenue and earnings line (at least by a 72% margin as certain triggers from core top-down and bottom-up positive line combines to good effect)

The present UNILEVER...

• Accelerating RM and OIM amidst drive to recover initially lost mkt share.
This is already working for the company!

• Healthier working capital stand on the back of higher ITP (ref: >> ∆ inventory turnover) and better performing receivables.
There's been a 64.9% YoY jump in consumer spend... with Nigerians parting with over N108 Trillion in 2021 alone despite inflationary pressure.
In retrospect, "tough times can't really be that tough" as passthrough impact from cost reflective challenges is minimized by higher comparative prices amidst increased consumer appetite.
A coy like UNILEVER now appears well placed to wither the storm given her broadly inelastic product mix.
Again, the decision of the Nig gov't to reopen the border should by implication, also greatly improve this line.

• Expanded reach in distributorship chain amidst in-company restructuring.
Expect lower CBR (ref: CRP) and higher CCC to JPBM in 2022.

• Back to back improvement (QoQ in view) in AsQ, ROCE, EM, AER, CGPR and AsY following deficits/squeeze in the previous 5 quarters.

• Improved value accretive stand at present compared to most sector peers in view of the current low base effect. (ref: NCPS, EV/EBITDA, JPBM)
...I also highlighted this same line while comparing WAPCO @ N9 and later, INTEBREW @ <N5 to their respective sector peers. (P2P weighting in view)

I see a similar pattern to fellow P2P coy, PZ.
Recall that we also gave a sell/underperform recommendation on PZ @ over N15 sometime in 2019... forecasting that price could drop to N4+.
Well, it did... and we later issued an outperform/buy signal @ that N4+.
PZ is currently trading @ N13+ and could rise even further.

UNILEVER can well follow the same path. ...the probability that its price can rise from current level is now closer to 1 than zero. (aside it's FA, certain KEY technical indicators are beginning to gather momentum)

With UNILEVER, potential REWARD has accelerated by an approx 2.7x multiple ahead of surrounding volatility/risk in view of it's CMP.

Using an appropriate blend of valuation model that assumes a minot growth margin of 0.15x TTM (5% QoQ to YE, 2022) but also benchmarked to risk-discounted levels of 500bps above current surrounding peg, UNILEVER' FVE computes to N29.15
This, by the way, implies a very conservative approach. ...that FVE can expand by well over 46% if a similar growth margin from Q1 is reproduced in Q2, 2022.

Rating now upgraded to; Overweight/Outperform

IT'S TIME TO INVEST IN UNILEVER!
BUY... ACCUMULATE... HOLD!

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

onegentleguy:


@ mcy56 trust you still remember the post above!

Some folks probably forget that LINKAGE ASSURANCE owns a core stake (circa 11.76%) in Stanbic Ibtc Pensions. ...Nigeria's biggest PFA/PFC, accounting for near 40% of the country's total pension fund with FUM/AUM in excess of N11 Trillion.

Buying LINKAGE @ <50k was tantamount to getting an insurance policy for a business/asset worth over N10 for almost nothing!
...more like transferring the risk of financial loss for an asset with a face value of N10 and paying nothing in return. (ref: >> 5x premium from CMP raking-off SRP)

The present mkt price is rediculously cheap... because even if you value LINKAGE using just 5% of the coys portfolio in Stanbic Pensions, it's FV would compute to N2.16.
And by the way, they own about 11.76%, not 5%.

My only regret was selling off the coy to position in other coys... but I know its gonna do well.

Hear this!
With certain insurance coys, buying into their present mkt peg is like getting them for free.
Only the assets/subsets they own is enough to take their prices to above N1.5!
I have since said that some select insurance companies are way too grossly undervalued!

LINKAGE ASSURANCE has already stated it's gradual push up.
....SOVEREIGN TRUST, REGENCY ALLIANCE and WAPIC getting ready.

Elsewhere, keep an eye on CHI, VERITAS KAPITAL, GUINEA INSURANCE, ROYALEX, MBENEFITS and the few other names we've highlighted here in time past.

The rise in certain select INSURANCE COYS will be epic when it begins!

Take position... but ensure to do so, permuting from among the right names.
...I already gave enough guide in time past.

Need further brief on the INSURANCE SECTOR? ...kindly surf through my many past post for more guidance.

Enough said!

please Uncle OGG, what about LASACO

Surprisingly, no one talked about the commencement of banking business by MTN and Airtel giving that this move would have far reaching consequences on the banking industry as well as an impact on the telecoms companies.
Publications on the exchange was made by both companies today.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36047_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC%20MOMO_PAYMENT_SERVICE_BA.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36043_AIRTEL_AFRICA_PLC%20NIGERIA_PSB_COMMENCEMENT_OF_OPERATIO.pdf

Meanwhile after selling its PFC to FBNH, Access bank just took majority stake in a PFA. This must be strategic and profit oriented.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36048_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC%20ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC_TO_ACQUIRE_MAJ.pdf

yMcy56:

No one is talking about this?

* If 9 out 10 is to be cancelled, then it will be in ratio 1:10..... i.e. One for every 10 held......
If you have 2M units for instance it will become: 2M÷10=200k.....
*Let's say the closing share price before suspension is placed is 30k, then the new reconstructed price will be 10x0.30 =N3.00 be that.....
* Lol. If MM should step in here like WEMA did, it may end up paying off........cos there's going to be some pumping here.

Ok. Let me not be too Forward.
Let's wait for further communication and breakdown of how it will go.......
Oga Labalaba, abeg if you first see the update, help post am and put me in copy abeg.

Okay ma Aunty Mercy

Mpeace:
Surprisingly, no one talked about the commencement of banking business by MTN and Airtel giving that this move would have far reaching consequences on the banking industry as well as an impact on the telecoms companies.
Publications on the exchange was made by both companies today.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36047_MTN_NIGERIA_COMMUNICATIONS_PLC%20MOMO_PAYMENT_SERVICE_BA.pdf

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36043_AIRTEL_AFRICA_PLC%20NIGERIA_PSB_COMMENCEMENT_OF_OPERATIO.pdf

Meanwhile after selling its PFC to FBNH, Access bank just took majority stake in a PFA. This must be strategic and profit oriented.
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/36048_ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC%20ACCESS_HOLDINGS_PLC_TO_ACQUIRE_MAJ.pdf

Confirms that pfa business is more profitable than pfc...

onegentleguy:


@ mcy56 trust you still remember the post above!

Some folks probably forget that LINKAGE ASSURANCE owns a core stake (circa 11.76%) in Stanbic Ibtc Pensions. ...Nigeria's biggest PFA/PFC, accounting for near 40% of the country's total pension fund with FUM/AUM in excess of N11 Trillion.

Buying LINKAGE @ <50k was tantamount to getting an insurance policy for a business/asset worth over N10 for almost nothing!
...more like transferring the risk of financial loss for an asset with a face value of N10 and paying nothing in return. (ref: >> 5x premium from CMP raking-off SRP)

The present mkt price is rediculously cheap... because even if you value LINKAGE using just 5% of the coys portfolio in Stanbic Pensions, it's FV would compute to N2.16.
And by the way, they own about 11.76%, not 5%.

My only regret was selling off the coy to position in other coys... but I know its gonna do well.

Hear this!
With certain insurance coys, buying into their present mkt peg is like getting them for free.
Only the assets/subsets they own is enough to take their prices to above N1.5!
I have since said that some select insurance companies are way too grossly undervalued!

LINKAGE ASSURANCE has already stated it's gradual push up.
....SOVEREIGN TRUST, REGENCY ALLIANCE and WAPIC getting ready.

Elsewhere, keep an eye on CHI, VERITAS KAPITAL, GUINEA INSURANCE, ROYALEX, MBENEFITS and the few other names we've highlighted here in time past.

The rise in certain select INSURANCE COYS will be epic when it begins!

Take position... but ensure to do so, permuting from among the right names.
...I already gave enough guide in time past.

Need further brief on the INSURANCE SECTOR? ...kindly surf through my many past post for more guidance.

Enough said!

Thanks! Holding on to my sovereign trust and linkage..
Looking to sell my universal insurance at a discount..

Hello � house

Please I want your advise, does the dividend and bonus proposed by MCNICHOLS make it a buy for the short term?

OrgasmDonorxoxo:
Hello � house

Please I want your advise, does the dividend and bonus proposed by MCNICHOLS make it a buy for the short term?

Dividend and bonus was declared when it was around 70k. I bought 77k and have sold.. if you entering at the current price to hold it might be too high.. that's my opinion but someone else might have better insight

Just taking a look at transcorp result from last year. Comparing the company's subsidiaries clearly shows they Power sector is all in all. Nothing came from the Oil and gas segment(meaning that asset has fully gone to heirs holding).
I think they need to unbundle or set the power segment on its own cos even with the current OS, the power segment can do wonders.

Are we still talking about Seplat here?

OBAGADAFFI:


Just ignore that, 0.22koko stock.

Even if them give bonus, i no go buy.

ojesymsym:
Are we still talking about Seplat here?

Multiverse Mining & Exploration Plc:

Mpeace:
Just taking a look at transcorp result from last year. Comparing the company's subsidiaries clearly shows they Power sector is all in all. Nothing came from the Oil and gas segment(meaning that asset has fully gone to heirs holding).
I think they need to unbundle or set the power segment on its own cos even with the current OS, the power segment can do wonders.

I don't support this idea.

Same way they unbundled Transcorp Hotel?