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Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? - Politics - Nairaland

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It's Like This Obi's Prophecy Is Working Small Small / Question. Is This Obi Collecting His Certificate Of Return? / Kwankwaso Is Making Obi's Pathway To Victory Easier (2) (3) (4)

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Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Fibonacci88: 4:28pm On Jan 06, 2023
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

222 Likes 27 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by southsouthking(m): 4:32pm On Jan 06, 2023
APT

108 Likes 11 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by PrinceOfLagos: 4:33pm On Jan 06, 2023
As expected

207 Likes 19 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Roboto11: 4:41pm On Jan 06, 2023
Some got hopes and dreams..


We've got ways and means...

117 Likes 16 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by stevnwigw1: 4:43pm On Jan 06, 2023
Noted.
Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by mrvitalis(m): 4:49pm On Jan 06, 2023
Roboto11:
Some got hopes and dreams..


We've got ways and means...
Who is the we ? Sha hope you would be given appointment is Bat wins

51 Likes 1 Share

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by BluntTheApostle(m): 4:58pm On Jan 06, 2023
Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.
SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%
SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

151 Likes 19 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by LilMissRobbie(f): 5:08pm On Jan 06, 2023
Obi is winning , wailers are wailing

209 Likes 18 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by mbahdi(m): 5:08pm On Jan 06, 2023
Leprosy to every hand to every hand dat WI want to vote apc again

121 Likes 14 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Ennoloa: 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
Just knowing PO is winining in Lagos is sweet

Urchins tears taste is sweet

145 Likes 17 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Holluwhakemmy(f): 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
I Don't think so let's wait till election day

4 Likes 1 Share

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by nero2face: 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
I am an Igbo, proudly one, and am voting for PO, but if my reason for voting him is for ethnic reasons then I pray he loose, but if am voting him FOR A BETTERNIGERIA then victory is his...please for the sake of our own future, let's vote PETER OBI for our future and the future of our country

182 Likes 22 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Nairalandar: 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
Bala bulue bulue

8 Likes

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Omoawoke: 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
cheesy
If you throw cutlass up, it will always land by it’s sides.
No matter how you reason am or think am or permutate am, Obi will not win

57 Likes 12 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Reporting34(f): 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
Roboto11:
Some got hopes and dreams..


We've got ways and means...
Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by benitwater(m): 5:10pm On Jan 06, 2023
So far we ain't voting on social media,
Asiwaju Baba Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win 2023 presidential election.

44 Likes 5 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by socialmediaman: 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
Peter Obi has a clear path, and I think the best option is to win decisively at the first ballot, to avoid the crooks aligning at the second ballot based on "enemy of my enemy"

27 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Light78: 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
Dem dey use northern campaign and crowd judge who will be the next president

4 Likes

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Rapuru14: 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
Obi Datti 2023

25 Likes 1 Share

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by frankblinkz(m): 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
Obi all the way....

25 Likes

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Watcharena: 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
Very funny guys

5 Likes

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Klington: 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Think9ja(m): 5:11pm On Jan 06, 2023
kiss

I will be here to mock these fools by the time INEC starts reading results.

You don't believe Atiku can win election without the useless G-5 guys but you believe Pandora can be president without a single councilor on his party's platform

Your lord and savior will not win one state in Nigeria.

Screenshot this and quote me with it next month

41 Likes 9 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by ubest1(m): 5:12pm On Jan 06, 2023
Don't be deceived by rented rallies Obi is winning before 2pm, every realistic statistics favours him, last election less than 40millions Nigerian voted, out many happening all the additional voters is for Obi God bless Nigeria

23 Likes 2 Shares

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by specialmati(m): 5:12pm On Jan 06, 2023
grin grin grin grin grin grin i wish him all the best and to all reasonable Nigerians with sense on how to get the country back from the old corrupt money bags

8 Likes

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by owiko(m): 5:12pm On Jan 06, 2023
May the best man (OBI) win

16 Likes

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by Ofunaofu: 5:12pm On Jan 06, 2023
Apt

1 Like

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by hector94: 5:12pm On Jan 06, 2023
BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 11 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administer via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

Dey there dey write rubbish storyline . Obi all the way 25 February is not far again

24 Likes 1 Share

Re: Is This Obi's Pathway To Victory In 2023? by tunapawizzy: 5:13pm On Jan 06, 2023
As much as I want Obi, I dont see it happening this way

8 Likes 1 Share

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