pacesetting:
This is a projection based on the polls conducted. It means there are so many factors that can swing the election, as you pointed out. But as it stands now, LP is in poll position to win.

At the bolded, are you saying you don't know what is a survey?

If I didn't know what a poll was, I would be sad that Obi is winning them.

Of course, I know that polls are the weakest tool for predicting election results.

They are only good for sampling opinions about products and services.

pacesetting:
This is a projection based on the polls conducted. It means there are so many factors that can swing the election, as you pointed out. But as it stands now, LP is in poll position to win.

At the bolded, are you saying you don't know what is a survey?

He knows, he is only angry it didn't favour his candidate

Hi

BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

Bro you live in delusion instead. Are you from another planet? Ain't you seeing what is happening in Nigeria? Why do you guys choose darkness over light that will shine on your path. Take it or leave it PO is the candidate to beat come February 2023.

I know the top three candidates will even each other out, but the one with more voters spread will carry the day. That is why I will enjoin labour party to start campaigning vigorously in the North, after all, Obi did not choose datti as his running mate for nothing.

I believe in the obi mandate. It's just The northern electorate usually bring their animals to vote. If the elections are free and fair, then the obi mandate will be actualized.

Hear this: we will stand guard and protect our votes.

Obi all za way

Hi

BluntTheApostle:


That is the problems with polls.

They make people delusional.

How can you expect that Obi will win?

Some of these ridiculous polls even project a landslide victory for Obi.

Anyway, February 25 is almost here. Reality about to hit hard.

So who will win? Tinubu? With yoruba Muslim votes?

mrvitalis:

Who is the we ? Sha hope you would be given appointment is Bat wins

Appointment as Agbero that’s the valid position they have

ozonelayer79:

Bro you live in delusion instead. Are you from another planet? Ain't you seeing what is happening in Nigeria? Why do you guys choose darkness over light that will shine on your path. Take it or leave it PO is the candidate to beat come February 2023.

I am being realistic.

I should chose light? Who is light? Obi?

Don't make me laugh.

Soludo has told you people the bitter truth. Obi knows he is not winning the election.

BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

If the majority who were called were in the midst of those shouting Obi and so declared Obi, does that not tell you that Obi is popular?

Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

Smh

Anything to give Obi supporters hope is allowed..

Delusional statistic..

Hehehe Op APC with their Muslim-muslim agenda can never get that number of votes in SE I am not sure about SS, but I can categorically tell you that, bubu's performance in SE will beat tinubu's own hands down.
The difference between the fall of Pdp and Apc is that,Pdp was taken out by the elites.
But APC will be taken out by the people themselves.
I laugh at people like Apcharam wey still dey decieve themselves dey do Tribal hate on this matter Nigerians wey dey suffer from this APC calamity don see se true true Suffer no sabi Tribe at all.
Taking out APC is the only sensible thing to do now.

benitwater:
So far we ain't voting on social media,
Asiwaju Baba Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win 2023 presidential election.

We have northern and Southern region in this country.
For Tinubu to win, he would have to win majority votes in one of these regions.

Unfortunately for him, he would lose the South to Peter Obi, and lose the North to Atiku.
Sentiments apart, that's the reality on ground.

Fibonacci88:

I love your username

that was how clinton was winning against trump then in the dday, they began to shout Russia. donald trump won massively

grammarian247:


If the majority who were called were in the midst of those shouting Obi and so declared Obi, does that not tell you that Obi is popular?

You are not getting my point.

My point is certain factors can influence respondents' answers.

I don't know why you people take an example so literally.

APC are living in denial.
They know what wants to hit them but they pretend they don't know. Join the moving train. PO is the moving train. If he becomes the president it is for the good of all Nigerians irrespective of your region, tribe or religion.

@femijamz.
Boy how old are you?
No dey cap anyhow online ooo. This nairaland is not faceless as you think.
I saw the below quoted post that's why I'm quoting you.
I don see where truth or dare kpai one guy like that for street.

@Oldnairalander I want to believe you're not serious with this. Some of us only come here to catch cruise and forget daily worries abeg.

OldNairalander:
Quoted for record purposes.
I will personally track you to help you bend it.
I mean every word of it. Unless you're not in Nigeria

femijamz:
If Peter OBI win next month general election make my left hand bend

Peter Obi all the way
Nigerians vote wisely if una like

Me and my wife

I wish una best of luck oo. Meanwhile, my observation from all these "polls" (in spite of the reality on ground) is they're primed to build groundswell opposition to any eventual outcome of the 2023 presidential elections that doesn't produce the projected political party as winner.

Structure or no structure, this forthcoming election is between the twin evils of APC or PDP; any election result that declares either Atiku or Tinubu as winner will be greeted with widespread allegations of rigging resulting in civil unrest - for a while.

The North decides which party occupies the presidential villa & no matter what anyone says, projects or analyses, Peter Obi won't get up to 15% of entire votes cast in that region (majority of his votes from there will most likely be from Northcentral but you see Northeast & Northwest - the latter especially - it'll be a battle between APC, PDP & NNPP in that order.

What am I even saying? Please, ignore me.

ablejesus26:
Hehehe Op APC with their Muslim-muslim agenda can never get that number of votes in SE I am not sure about SS, but I can categorically tell you that, bubu's performance in SE will beat tinubu's own hands down.
The difference between the fall of Pdp and Apc is that,Pdp was taken out by the elites.
But APC will be taken out by the people themselves.
I laugh at people like Apcharam wey still dey decieve themselves dey do Tribal hate on this matter Nigerians wey dey suffer from this APC calamity don see se true true Suffer no sabi Tribe at all.
Taking out APC is the only sensible thing to do now.

OSU, let this be the last time you mention me on this forum.

Omoawoke:

If you throw cutlass up, it will always land by it’s sides.
No matter how you reason am or think am or permutate am, Obi will not win

If that makes you sleep well at night.

BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

This BATist just came here to regurgigate Omojuwa's article on the ANAP poll thinking we will not notice.

Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

We do not talk rather walk the talk

OP, if Obi scores above 3 million votes and wins more than 6 states, I will personally buy you dinner.

Your projection is wrong.

The greatest thing God created in every Human being is conscience and on that very conscience, I will be dropping down this very message.

We're in a democracy yes buh there's this very prayer points I wish we should all say a very big Amen to both the atheist.

We're going to evaluate the top 4 presidential candidates base on their
Integrity,
Capacity,
Competent, Commitment,
Hope,
Trustworthy,
Track Records,
Health Wise And Humility.

If among the top 4 presidential candidates,you're supporting and promoting one particular candidate and your conscience aligned to what you're doing via within you,you know that you're doing the right thing, then may Heaven open doors of blessing,favor,upliftment,breakthrough,success for you,may you swim in good health,long life and more prosperity, may the mercy of God speaks for you all time,His grace compound you,may everything you aspire and desire be granted within the first quarter of this year,may premature and untimely death be far away from you,your family,your friends and your loved ones,may the water,the air,the land brings forth everything that will always make you happy and may joy never depart from you and your household, AMEN..

THEN

If you're supporting and promoting one particular candidate buh your conscience is against such candidate buh you must support the candidate maybe because he's from your tribe,your religion, for financial gains or because you so much hate one particular tribe via to spite one particular tribe, to the detriment of over 200 million Nigerians,over 133 millions in poverty, thousands killed and still killing for lack of good governance,

Then may Heaven judge you,may evil you're supporting and promoting visit you and your household,may the primordial sentiments you're promoting with your hatred to achieve your aim be return back to you,may everything you desire and aspire be taken away from you,may good thing be far away from you,may hardship,sickness,disappointment,hatred,rejection,sorrow,frustration, depression and regret be your companion,
May the water,the air and the land work against you and against anything that will bring happiness to you,may your path be slippy and may the evil you're pushing for Nigerians torment you morning,afternoon,evening and night,may evil never leave you until you leave evil and may you and your household become the victims of the evil you're supporting,finally may this prayer come to pass if your conscience is not in support of the candidate you're supporting,promoting,fighting for and attacking sanely good Nigerians here everyday,AMEN..



NB: Please,I didn't mention any candidate name buh if you're happy with this my prayer,it shows that you're a good person and also aligned with your conscience and my prayer will work for you
BUH
if you find my prayer discomforting, unease,angry and bittered,then you're fighting with your conscience and it also shows that you're supporting evil and my prayer for evil supporters will work on you except you change and align with your conscience and do what's right for the betterment of everybody..

Thanks for reading....

I rest my case,Gracias!!!!

Obi can win but he has to work very well in the North very well. Obi will win SE and SS and do well in South West. He will take second position in the South West. North center Will favor him small by get up to 30% but North West and North East is the major problems for Obi.

azpekuliar:


You just came here to regurgigate J.J. Omojuwa's article. Mods please ban this BATist for plagiarism

I am a mathematician with interest in research.

I don't plagiarize other people.

People like you who have low self esteem cannot imagine that Omojuwa might have stolen my own post, and not the other way round.

APCHaram:


OSU, let this be the last time you mention me on this forum.

Hehehe e pain the cursed dead thing
I go mention you anytime wey I wan talk about cursed animals wey dey spread tribal hate for this forum , afterall I no lie ,your life starts and ends with Igbo tribal hate,you just carry nonsense destiny come this life sha
Shun tribal hate.

BluntTheApostle:


I am being realistic.

I should chose light? Who is light? Obi?

Don't make me laugh.

Soludo has told you people the bitter truth. Obi knows he is not winning the election.

Soludo just like you and I is entitled to his opinion. He is not speaking for marmot Nigerians who have thrown their weights behind PO come rain come shine. Soludo has not done more than a year but visit Anambra to see the ills happening there. If you no dey see you no dey hear?