Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

ubest1:
It going to happe because this the first Nigerian are coming believing their vote will count God bless PMB for BVAS #Obi we want

ChukwuObe:
These people are very delusional if they think Obi will get up to 1 million in the SW what Awolowo did not get from their region. February is very much around the corner

Ennoloa:
Just knowing PO is winining in Lagos is sweet

Urchins taste is sweet

Fibonacci88:

The same methodology used by ANAP was used to predict previous elections accurately.

Same statistical methodology is used by organizations to predict sales and customer satisfaction. KPMG does random sampling of banks customers to rank banks based forcustomer satisfaction ranking. If this method is dishonest, why will reputable firms use this as a predictive tool.

You dont expect them to call everybody thats where statistics comes in.

Flier:
There is no Path to victory for obi because the system does not favour him
Even if Obi wins 100 millon vote,there is no way he can win election if he doesn't win 25% in 24 States,something that is practically impossible for him to achieve
Obi will get enough votes in SS,SE,SW and NC but forget the rest he won't get 10%

Roboto11:
Some got hopes and dreams..


We've got ways and means...

Ennoloa:
Just knowing PO is winining in Lagos is sweet

Urchins taste is sweet

ovieigho:



Well this your assertions is applicable to all the PArties …

So statistics is still right

Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

LilMissRobbie:
Obi is winning , wailers are wailing

BluntTheApostle:

I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.
You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?
ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.
If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?
Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.
Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

Omoawoke:

If you throw cutlass up, it will always land by it’s sides.
No matter how you reason am or think am or permutate am, Obi will not win

olahero:
keep dreaming.

BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

tunapawizzy:

e go gimme joy o............i see as numerous young Nigerians are still rooting for the old parties that kept them in total poverty...na that one dey weak me...i wish people will have sense BUt mehn when i listen to what young people say, i dey weak

drlateef:





Delusion of grandeur. Tinubu is winning. If you like do permutations till thy kingdom come, it will only worsen your depression and anxiety. They have to ban the sale of new transformers from now onwards. If it’s difficult for you to face reality, then the shock will be too much for you.

TinubuDeDrugLor:


Are you angry because it didn't favour Tinubu the drug addict?

You know that Obi will Win.

Tinubu is just wasting his time and deceiving gullible people like you.

Election is next month and you'll cry blood.

Peter Obi is coming......to take over from Buhari.

Ttalk:


Peter Obi will not win a single LG in Lagos state. Bookmark this, you can take it to your dibia for confirmation

BluntTheApostle:


That ANAP made predictions that came true doesn't mean they accurately predicted the elections.

Words like accuracy are used with care in statistics.




Phone surveys are best used for sampling opinions, but with sensitive issues, it is hard to get honest responses.

That is why phone surveys or all forms of surveys are best for sampling opinions on non-sensitive issues.



You don't understand statistics.

Yes, you don't have to call everyone, but you need to have a representative sample to be able to generalize your result to your population of interest.

You want to predict the 2023 general election, even if your sample size is 1000, make sure that the sample size is representative of the population of registered voters in Nigeria, otherwise, you will be wasting your time.

femijamz:
If Peter OBI win next month general election make my left hand bend