Out of the 8 presidential candidate or whatsoever, Atiku/okowa and Tinubu they re not supposed to contest. reasons;
Atiku was once the VC president of Nigeria and what did he do ? Nothing or can someone tell us what he did as a VC or any position he held in govt office? Thief !

Okowa is my governor… for 8 yrs he did nothing in delta state . He turned my beautiful Warri city to keke city. He turned Ozoro polytechnic ( a poly that ought to be secondary school ) to a university. He did not bring any company to delta state. Abi na road? = zero, security? = zero. Kidnappers everywhere. No state project for 8 yrs as a governor yet people are campaigning for him as a VC to Atiku. Thief + thief = 2 thief. Me and u go suffer am if he win infact I go japa leave u

Tinubu….Kaiiii… grandpa, to stand for 2hrs na wahala….. to pronounce a word correctly na wahala. Just imagine someone like Tinubu campaigning for presidency in America how would u rate America ?
How did he win Apc presidential ticket ? Where is fashola? Mad people full Apc. Apc is a disgrace!

If u vote for Apc or pdp na me and u go suffer am. Infact I no go suffer …I go japa leave u

The election should be between kwankwaso and Peter obi

Think9ja:


I will be here to mock these fools by the time INEC starts reading results.

You don't believe Atiku can win election without the useless G-5 guys but you believe Pandora can be president without a single councilor on his party's platform

Your lord and savior will not win one state in Nigeria.

Screenshot this and quote me with it next month

If obi do not win up to 12 states i will deactivate my account after the pools keep f00ling yourself.

Keep up the delusion, folks.

As expected jare?

we don't need permutations. if obi does not win, I think Nigeria collapse. Muslim and Fulani ticket give us no choice.

Obi can only win if he can stop tinibu evil plans to rig the election buhari have never conducted a free and fair presidential election he only allows free and fair elections in states this current inec chairman rigged the last presidential election for the apc I won't be surprised if the same thing is repeated next month only a foolish person will trust that muslim man.

Joevics:

ote author=BluntTheApostle post=119775905]

I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?
Lol. One of these surveys was done face to face in the rural areas, not via phone calls. But you guys reject it, only to accept Thisday Projection that was done in the studio.

Who is really delusional?

You be teacher? You get time dey lecture for here. Comes February, may Almighty God spare our lives, he will see how much of a trash all what he believes in now are

Obi for the win if this election is credible forget it obi is winning obi is the most mentioned when it comes to who can't win amongst the top three but in psychology it is said the man with the ball is the most tackled obi has the ball right now let no one fool you

sangresan:
By merely reading this, people should be able to make some inference about the writer: he is one of those miseducated Nigerian youths.

Why do I write this? Obi has no way of winning the election. The best position Obi can attain is 3rd.

In the South West: Obi won't get the required 25% of the total votes outside Lagos. For example, if the total votes in Osun State is 700,000, Obi cannot secure 175,000 votes to give him 25%.

This means that Obi can only get the required 25% in one out of six SW states (Lagos). He won't get it in Osun, Oyo, Ekiti, Ondo, and Ogun. 1 of 6


In the North West: If we are to assume that Datti can do the magic for Labour Party in Kaduna, then it means that Obi would only get the required 25% in one out of seven states (Kaduna). He won't get it in Sokoto, Kano, Jigawa, Kebbi, Katsina, and Zamfara. 1 of 7

In the South South: Obi should get the required 25% in all the six South South states, . He should get it in Delta, Edo, Rivers, Bayelsa, Cross River and Akwa Ibom. 6 of 6


In the South East: Obi should get the required 25% in all the 5 South East states. He will get it in Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Abia, and his native Anambra. 5 of 5


In the North Central: Obi should get the required 25% in 3 of the six North Central states. He should get it in Benue, Plateau and perhaps Nasarawa . Obi cannot get it in Kwara, Kogi and Niger. 3 of 6

In the North East: Obi cannot get the required 25% in any of the six states. He cannot get it in Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Borno, Yobe and Adamawa. 0 of 6

In total, Obi is likely to secure the constitutional requirement of 25% in just 16 states which falls far short of 24 as stipulated.

Let's assume that Obi will do well beyond expectations. Let's give him the benefit of doubt that he could get the required 25% in four more states. That means he could get the required percentage in 20 states. Given these facts, I always wonder where Obi supporters get the confidence to be predicting victory for him in the election. Just like Soludo wrote, I also believe that Obi himself knows that he is not contesting to win.

Obi cannot get 25% in Kaduna?

Kaduna filled with Christians?

Obi will win the highest number of votes cast and per adventure he doesn't get 25% of 2/3 states, then it will end in a run off.

He will still win it.

People actually believe Tinubu will not get 1 MILLION votes in Lagos? My advice to Obi is to not rely on these polls o, these people dey whine you ni o

Obasanjo and his co-travellers that are endorsing Obi are doing so for selfish interests.
They want a President they can order around.
They want a President that will return to them the oil Wells that Buhari took away from them.
Tinubu will not be that kind of President.
Atiku already has his own league of opportunists.
Obi is the best bet to get cash-cow.
These endorsements are not for the love of Nigeria; they are to secure self interest.

Light78:
Dem dey use northern campaign and crowd judge who will be the next president

The same way others use one million march to judge who will win general election.

LagosInter:


Obi cannot get 25% in Kaduna?

Kaduna filled with Christians?

Obi will win the highest number of votes cast and per adventure he doesn't get 25% of 2/3 states, then it will end in a run off.

He will still win it.

You ended up saying nothing. Reread my post. Kaduna is one of the states listed as places he could get 25%.

Many of you cannot even identify some of those listed states on a wall map. Who wan dash Obi 25% of total votes in 24 states?

There won't be any runoff election. The election is between APC and PDP. You can continue to amuse yourselves.

Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

Bro you better wake up so Tinubu and Atiku will get 7m votes each in Nigeria's Election... Keep dreaming.
Best on your permutations you predicted 10m voters turn out in NW but end up distributing 5m votes to the four candidats what happened to the remaining 5m votes? Who get them? Don't you know that Bauchi state alone cancel three south eastern states in the 2019 general election go and varify first general election is much more than social media stuffs.

Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

I am predicting voters'turnout to be around 40m. By this the winner will score around 15m votes. If LP scores highest, it will go to runoff.

Went to collect 40 of my friends pvc card who asked me to assist them today jesus christ could not get hold of them based on people and useless InEC staff thunder go kill them tomorrow

BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

He didn't ask you to analyse his own analysis. The thread says drop the pathway to victory for your own candidate.
When will people like you learnto respect other people's opinions?

Roboto11:
Some got hopes and dreams..


We've got ways and means...

Best Comment Of 2023.

Omoawoke:

If you throw cutlass up, it will always land by it’s sides.
No matter how you reason am or think am or permutate am, Obi will not win

Yes because the Election would or have been rigged already! !!!

Fibonacci88:
With the buildup to the next elections, many permutations and projections have been thrown arround. The polls, projections all point to one winner. Peter Obi. This pill might be hard to swallow by PDP and APC as they are yet to understand why a structureless party is gathering so much momentum. I have made my own projections based on ANAP and the rececnt BANTUPAGE polls. While ANAP has been a very reputable poll with a decent track record, I was very pleased with the work done by BANTUPAGE hence the need for my own projection based on this two polls. I have attached my projections which i did with xcel. The zones in yellow shows zone i had to do a bit of adjustment. The other zones not colored are zones were the BANTUPAGE projections or ANAP was used without any further input. I had to separate lagos from SW cos 50% of registerd voters in SW are in lagos. Those who understand statistics would understand the need for this. The ANAP poll predicts a landslide for Obi, but I think the election will go down the wire even though Obi will win. Hence I had to combine with that of BANTU which drilled down into ethnicity and religion which will play a major role in this election.

SOUTH-SOUTH- I lowered LP party to get 50% though obi was given 66% on Bantu poll and 46% on ANAP. APC- 10%, PDP-20%

SOUTHWEST- No adjustment was made data from BantuPage.
SOUTHEAST- I had to use ANAP as i couldnt get any poll from Bantu.
NORTH CENTRAL- ANAP was used
NORTH WEST- No adjustment. I had to go with Bantu cos i feel the ANAP poll overstimated LP in this Zone
NORTH-EAST- I had to use Bantu poll even though it dint capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi. I believe this is an APC stronghold. BANTU POLL gave the following- LP- 15, APC-12, PDP-37(This % didnt capture Borno, Yobe and Bauchi hence i had to do the adjustment.) LP- 15%, APC- 40%, PDP-37. This is APC stronghold hence i expect them to win this region.
SUMMARY
LP- 10,917,751
APC- 7,753,050
PDP- 7,279,552
NNPP- 2,427,785
Feel free to air your opinion. No insult or tribal slur. If you have a pathway for your candidate feel free to let us know.

How does lagos jump from 20% voting to 70% voting in 4 years Flawed analysis with the percentage voting

Let seek for Peace

seunmsg:
Keep up the delusion, folks.

Alright.

nero2face:
I am an Igbo, proudly one, and am voting for PO, but if my reason for voting him is for ethnic reasons then I pray he loose, but if am voting him FOR A BETTERNIGERIA then victory is his...please for the sake of our own future, let's vote PETER OBI for our future and the future of our country

... He will not smell government house...he will lose inshaAllah..... Igbo too want presidency?

Light78:
Dem dey use northern campaign and crowd judge who will be the next president

Before nkor? U can't win Nigeria presidential election without winning the majority of northern votes, especially in this era of BVAS.

Omoawoke:

If you throw cutlass up, it will always land by it’s sides.
No matter how you reason am or think am or permutate am, Obi will not win

(ADAGE) dey say well wey get water inside no dey make noise we OBIDIENT we no dey gather crowd buh God dey with us

BluntTheApostle:


I don't mean to be rude, but you people are delusional.

You project LP to garner over 10 million votes? From where would they get that?

ANAP and whatever other poll you use offered sampled results. They are inferential statistics.

If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

Remember, the survey was administered via phone calls, and we know that one limitation of the phone survey is that respondent always tend to be dishonest, or may not reveal their true intention for fear of being judged. You call someone who is in the midst of people shouting Obi, of course he would readily declare for Obi, but might vote someone else on election day.

Another limitation of the phone survey are the biases, such as coverage bias. Did the survey cover the whole country, or did it it miss a bulk of the true registered voters?

if Obi can get 75 of votes in southeast, it's 2.5million.
If he can get 50% of southsouth, it's 2.5million
If he can get 25% of southwest, it's 1.5m
If he can get 30% of Northcentral, it's 1.5m
Obi will get atleast 500k in both NW and NE

TOTAL: 8.5m. Not bad, he Will make a return with this

Obi will win Kaduna, Benue, Plateau and Taraba.

Flier:
There is no Path to victory for obi because the system does not favour him
Even if Obi wins 100 millon vote,there is no way he can win election if he doesn't win 25% in 24 States,something that is practically impossible for him to achieve
Obi will get enough votes in SS,SE,SW and NC but forget the rest he won't get 10%

Workch:
if Obi can get 75 of votes in southeast, it's 2.5million.
If he can get 50% of southsouth, it's 2.5million
If he can get 25% of southwest, it's 1.5m
If he can get 30% of Northcentral, it's 1.5m
Obi will get atleast 500k in both NW and NE

TOTAL: 8.5m. Not bad, he Will make a return with this

If tinubu gets 3 mil in nw,1.5 mil in ne,3 mil in sw,2 mil in nc he wins.I've not even added se and ss

baresi22:
Obi will win Kaduna, Benue, Plateau and Taraba.

Obi cannot win kad and taraba.he can only get 25%

BluntTheApostle:


If you sampled 1000 respondents, and 60% want Obi, how do you generalize such result to a population of 93.5 million registered voters?

The answer is simple.

100% of Nigerians are suffering and won't hire those oppressing them like PDAPC again.

Fixed!

LP needs to do more restructuring in the rural areas. People in rural communities mostly know the APC and PDP. This is a disaster waiting to happen.