Rubbish

Ennoloa:


So its Tinubu that would win Rivers

A Muslim Muslim for a state with 95% christians

Or you think They don't vote on Religious lines like SW

My state vote on competency, religion and close to ethnicity

Even if Wike openly endorse Tinubu

I tell you the least Tinubu would see is 30% but can't win or you think we vote a Northerner to hand over a Northerner

Go to Port harcourt and ask who people are voting before your principal drug affect you

Kwankwaso would win Kano but small margin

Andrew liver true true

Where did OP ever mentioning Tinubu to win Rivers?

From OP prediction Tinubu will not even come second in Rivers State but yet without reading nor paying attention to details you are reacting like Andrew liver salt

obailala:
This has to be the most flawed presidential election projection I've seen since this season. @Passingshot obviously still thinks the LP buzz is merely social media noise; he must be amongst those who believe 4 people are sitting in a room shouting Obi Obi

The fact he gave LP 5million even with his obvious bias shows that LP is making inroads. Atiku/Tinubu did not get 5million votes in 2007 under ACN.

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

Why not predict that APC will win 99% of votes cast all over Nigeria?

A drug trafficking baron with his Boko Haram sympathizer is your dream for president of Nigeria, you need to be cursed.

Ennoloa:
It’s you that need rest

You state Atiku would win Rivers state

You say Tinubu would win Kano

Do you know who is even Kwankwanso

Keep on fooling yourself

You think people are voting based on Political parties

You stay in Osogbo and be predicting for states you don’t know what’s trending there


You are so funny that you gave Oyo a PDP state to APC based on ethnicity but you gave Katsina a Fulani APC state APC based on party

You reek of delusion

Who is Kwankwaso?


A man who could not even win his own LG in 2019?


Abeg, APC will win Kano.

OP should please stop wasting Nairaland space. PDP will win Delta, Rivers and Akwai Ibom you dey mad

Ennoloa:


So its Tinubu that would win Rivers

A Muslim Muslim for a state with 95% christians

Or you think They don't vote on Religious lines like SW

My state vote on competency, religion and close to ethnicity

Even if Wike openly endorse Tinubu

I tell you the least Tinubu would see is 30% but can't win or you think we vote a Northerner to hand over a Northerner

Go to Port harcourt and ask who people are voting before your principal drug affect you

Kwankwaso would win Kano but small margin

Olodo ni e omo de yi.

Read and read again. Na only headline you read

PassingShot:

Na here we go dey dey mop una tears on February 25th.

Oga this puerile attempt of yours to use reverse psychology is DOA...

This is 2023....Wake up from your lazy dream...

Where this one craw commot from?

What a sentimental bullshit and an inconceivable analysis wrapped in inconsequential outbursts full of bla bla blu inconsistencies.

MR. ANALYST, BVAS WILL BE USED IN THIS ELECTION...one man one vote!

INEC has repeatedly informed us that the YOUTH will decide this election. Does that not give you a glimpse of the forthcoming election outcome?

BUHARI don't care about this election. He knows that by principle the SOUTH should have their turn to the PRESIDENCY but the Tinubu factor in his party, he ain't comfortable with him so President Buhari is pushing for a free and fair election.

Tinubu can't be President.

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

My friend your tone and demeanor gave you away as a bitter hateful tribalist, an I understand. Refering to your fellow Southerner as "my brothers/sisters from across the River Niger is a huge reg flag of your real intentions.

Have you ever left the South West? Cos as a Northerner in the MB I promise you Obi is winning here. I see Peter Obi's outings in the North is eating you deep.

Chuksaluta:


The fact he gave LP 5million even with his obvious bias shows that LP is making inroads. Atiku/Tinubu did not get 5million votes in 2007 under ACN.

Aside the fact that there were less number of registered voters in 2007, the turnout of voters was poor.


So, don't be happy yet until after the elections.

I want to challenge this your prediction with a stake.

Labour party will win two or more states apart from the South Eastern States you mentioned.

I feel you were showing bigotry when you thought POs relevance was only in the East.

PassingShot:
NORTH WEST ZONE
From win percentage of between 65% and 73% for APC in 2019, I have reduced the party's win margin to a little under 50% in 2023 largely because PMB is not on the ballot and Tinubu is not from the region. I expect Atiku and Kwankwaso to cut into APC's votes but not enough to take the region from them.

Sokoto is a state I expect to be proved wrong with my prediction, especially with the endorsement of Tinubu by the popular and powerful philantropist in person of Alhaji Ummarun Kwabo (Jarman Sokoto) who has directed his supporters and loyalists to vote for Tinubu in the state.

I expect Kwankwaso to score between 20% and 30% (Kano) across states in the NW while I expect Obi not to score more than 2% except in Kaduna (because of Southern Kaduna) where I have him scoring 15%.


SOUTH EAST ZONE
This is a region APC can afford not to hold a campaign rally and still win the presidency.

As I said earlier, I have increased the expected voters turnout in the SE by 10% in each of the five states there. This should boost Obi's performance in the presidential election, assuming that the UGM/IPOB allow voters to exercise their right. I expect Obi to nick this region ahead of PDP with around 47% of the total votes cast. The fact that PDP remains strong in the SE region, and that APC also controls two states here (Imo and Ebonyi) mean that LP will not have it as easy as social media noise is making us believe. PDP and APC have a formidable presidential candidate and also have candidates for other state and national elections there too.

I have penned down APC to score 10% in Abia, Anambra and Enugu, and 25% in Ebonyi and Imo states. I also expect PDP to outperform APC in this region scoring between 25% and 35% of the total votes. When you combine PDP adn LP votes here, you will realize the extent of impact of fragmented opposition to PDP especially.

APC to score 25% of votes in Imo state? This is another pointer to the fact that all your predictions here are worthless.
Are you going to use your APC government unknown gunmen to force Imo people so that APC wins up to 7% of votes in Imo state?
Imagine giving one's vote to an old and sick Tinubu who forfeited drug trafficking money to the US government.

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.


SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

APC to win EDO
Joker of the year 2023

Great extensive prediction Passingshot. Can post a summarized prediction based on Geopolitical Zones and post it on this thread: https://www.nairaland.com/7437376/whats-election-result-projection-2023#118457634

Thanks

oluwaseyi0:


Andrew liver true true

Where did OP ever mentioning Tinubu to win Rivers?

From OP prediction Tinubu will not even come second in Rivers State but yet without reading nor paying attention to details you are reacting like Andrew liver salt

He said Atiku would win Rivers state

Vote wisely

PassingShot:

So, na Obi go win Rivers or Kano?

Andrews Liver Salt people sef.

i expected you to factor in the ipob no -election threats in the analysis.

you did a nice job though.

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

Wallahi.

Tinubu will beat kwankwaso in kano, also beat Atiku in kaduna, kastina, kebbi,gombe, bauchi, jigawa...

Just Dey play

johnjose68:


Passingshot should get ready for i.pob attack, the chest beaters.

They hate the truth.

You can't be calling a whole region cow, and the whole country zoo and then expect their votes...no be juju be that

They will learn why sw are the best in the game of Nigeria politics in the next one month.

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

Your brain must have been on hibernation mode when you wrote that lengthy piece of garbage. You couldn't even separate sentiments and emotional whims from objective analysis? You just wrote fantasies from your wildest imaginations and present it to people as analysis?

At this point, I will like to know if:

1. You're educated beyond primary 6?
2. Did you write that crap under the influence of hard drugs?
3. What's your IQ?

If you actually believed this garbage you wrote then your mental state is in serious jeopardy.

SadiqBabaSani:
A very useless Thread by a very cynical op,

When Obi becomes, how can you even Predict Atiku to win rivers 😂😂😂 Are you even following the mood of the nation at all?

Don't mind that grandpa of urchins

SadiqBabaSani:
A very useless Thread by a very cynical op,
When Obi becomes, how can you even Predict Atiku to win rivers 😂😂😂 Are you even following the mood of the nation at all?

The guy is a confused, hateful, short-sighted being. You can read his undertones.

Ennoloa:


He said Atiku would win Rivers state

Vote wisely

I'm confused, if he said Atiku will win why don't you take him on on that prediction
How does that end up with Tinubu, Muslim Muslim, South West bla blah blah?

You never counter him on a single reason why you think Atiku can't win River rather you Andrew liver salt to Tinubu that he predicted can't even make top 2

If you reacted wrongly simply admit your mistake and apologize, and if you think you didn't make a mistake then I'm still confused how tinubu enter this conversation

Ennoloa:


So its Tinubu that would win Rivers

A Muslim Muslim for a state with 95% christians

Or you think They don't vote on Religious lines like SW

My state vote on competency, religion and close to ethnicity

Even if Wike openly endorse Tinubu

I tell you the least Tinubu would see is 30% but can't win or you think we vote a Northerner to hand over a Northerner

Go to Port harcourt and ask who people are voting before your principal drug affect you

Kwankwaso would win Kano but small margin

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.

Even if you disagree with my political views, the fact that I have done this to near perfection in two previous presidential elections (2015 https://www.nairaland.com/2059493/2015-presidential-election-more-objective and 2019 https://www.nairaland.com/4957446/2019-presidential-election-prediction-analysis) deserves some respect. So, I will expect you to reign in your emotions while responding to this thread.

For this year's presidential election slated for February 25th, I have taken the time to diligently predict the outcome of the election. Unlike in the two previous predictions where only the two front runners were seriously considered, I have expanded this year's to four to include Obi's LP and Kwankwaso's NNPP, not because they have a chance of winning it but to massage the ego of supporters of LP's candidate and also to recognize the significant presence of Kwankwaso in some northern states.

This year's projection takes the following factors into consideration:

1. Political Structure: If there is any group of people that hates to hear this term, it is supporters of LP/Obi. Unfortunately for them, no one can win a state or national election without political structure. It is political structure that ensures that you are represented in places that matter. It is structure that makes you have a polling agent in every polling unit across the country. While APC and PDP can boast of this very important factor, LP and NNPP cannot.

2. State Dominance (number of states presently governed by a party): This is closely related to structure but it is much more. A party has a very good chance of wining the presidential election in the state it controls. Even when such party does not win it, it will have a strong showing in the election there. As of today, APC controls 21 of the 36 states of the federation while PDP controls 14 and APGA has 1. This will surely have a significant influence in the presidential election.

3. Strength/Unity of Opposition: Anyone who has followed politics long enough will easily understand that wrestling power from a ruling party at state or federal level requires a strong and united opposition. It was the absence of united opposition that made PDP rule for 16 years despite all their failings of those years. The opposition could not dislodge PDP until they came together to form what is now known as APC which is the ruling party of today. I strongly believe that for APC to lose this election or any future one nationally, it would require all of today's major opposition parties to fuse into one led by credible and trust-worthy leaders in the mould of Buhari (hate him as much as you like, most Nigerians still trust him) and Tinubu (despite your dislike of him, he remains a master strategist). Sadly for the opposition, they have become more fractionalized/fragmented like never before, now splitting their votes of 2019 into LP, NNPP and PDP. Even within PDP, they are further split into G5 that is doing everything possible to frustrate Atiku. It has always been an impossible mission for a fractionalized opposition to dislodges the ruling party, anywhere in the world.

4. Pulse of the Nation: Apart from those who are registered members of PDP and those who are very bitter about the prospect of Tinubu's presidency, majority of Nigerians are in agreement that the presidency should return to the southern part of the country after Buhari's eight years. This is the only sensible thing to do to keep Nigeria one and it is the major reason that the APC governors of northern extraction stood by BAT during the primaries in deference to Ahmed Lawan who was said to have been promoted by some cabal.

5. Strategic Campaining and Political Alignment/Realignment: We have seen how the parties have faired so far with their campaigns. It is self delusion for anyone to think that attendance at campaigns does not count for much in the election. A party that struggles to fill a 5,000 capcity venue cannot expect the same electoral outcome as one that fills 50,000 capacity venues effortlessly in most states of the country, especially in the north where the bulk of the votes are situated. To think otherwise is foolery and delusion. It is APC that has pulled most crowds at their rallies, followed by PDP. It is APC that has held meetings with strategic unions, organizations, captains of industries, etc, than any other party. All of this will not count for nothing during the election.

6. The G5 Factor: Like I stated earlier, the G5 led by Wike of Rivers is a faction in PDP. While I do not believe that their alliance with any of the other candidtaes (outside Atiku) will have a significance impact on the election, remaining neutral or uncommited to Atiku's candidacy boosts Tinubu's chances even more and gives more votes to Obi and possibly Kwankwaso.

NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger.

Note 2: This prediction/analysis may later be updated if there are major developments that can have significant effects on the election.

Sorry, this analysis is only suited to the snatch ballot box and run era. You left out the most important factor for this 2023 election which is BIVAS and electronic transmission of results. Anyway, you had your mind made up even before starting the analysis..Na your opinion.

oluwaseyi0:


I'm confused, if he said Atiku will win why don't you take him on on that prediction
How does that end up with Tinubu, Muslim Muslim, South West bla blah blah?

You never counter him on a single reason why you think Atiku can't win River rather you Andrew liver salt to Tinubu that he predicted can't even make top 2

If you reacted wrongly simply admit your mistake and apologize, and if you think you didn't make a mistake then I'm still confused how tinubu enter this conversation

You just jump to a conclusion like Tinubu jumping to sleep in every situation he find himself

Did you know whether he modified his post or not?

Go and sleep

PassingShot:

So, na Obi go win Rivers or Kano?

Andrews Liver Salt people sef.

So who would win Rivers Bulaba?

||Why did the mods delete my post? Why is this one still standing? What is wrong with what I said here....

I just can't help but shudder and shake my head about a post that made it to front page today.

There are obvious undertones to some posts, and they get deleted I know. But....

PassingShot, a Nairalander, made a post. A so called analysis of the possible outcome of the 2023 elections. He said....

"NOTE 1: For 2023, I have added 5% to 2019's voters turnout across all states of the federation except the SE region and Lagos where I have added 10% to reflect the social media buzz and enthusiasm of our brothers/sisters from across the River Niger"

This statement clearly shows who he made the post to and his state of mind making it, also why he went to so much effort to put up so plenty a writing.

I am not from "across the River Niger" but I got the message very well and clearly.

Peter Obi's supporters are far and wide, far beyond "The River Niger", so why the obvious undertones? Why always attacking the people from "across the River Niger"? What wrong have they done? What offense have they committed? Is it wrong for someone from "across the River Niger" to contest for the Presidency?

Nairaland mods should be careful about massaging egos of unexplained hateful minds here. I see one and he knows it.

I am from the MB but you can call me an OSU, I am comfortable with that.||

PassingShot:
"If wishes were horses, beggars would ride". Also, it is often said that the worst form of deceit is self deceit. In about 32 days from today, reality will dawn on supporters of paper-weight politicians and they will realize that social media presence or noise does not take anyone to Aso Rock.
.

A fair analysis close to the reality on ground. You should expect heavy insults from our brothers who think Nigerian elections are only won online. Most of them dont even have a PVC. My prediction is that its either Tinubu beats PDP in a landslide or PDP wins the election with a small margin. LP and NNPP are not going to come close even though they may have the better candidates out of the 4 parties. (Better is also relative until people get to aso rock you never know what they will do).

How apc ran nigeria in the past 7 years that's how your life will be.

PassingShot:
SOUTH SOUTH ZONE
With APC's inroad into the SS region in 2019, scoring hundreds of thousands of votes there for the first time since 1999 and winning the governorship election in Bayelsa before a court gave it to PDP, I expect even a solid performance this time around.

While I believe PDP will win SS region with around 35% of the total votes irrespective of what Wike and his G5 gang chooses to do, I expect APC to score nothing less than 25% in Akwam Ibom and Rivers, 30% in Cross River (an APC state), Delta (strong presence of APC there) and Bayelsa, and 35% in Edo.

I have Obi recording his best performance in SS in Rivers (30%), Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom (25% in each of the states) and 15% in Bayelsa.

I do not expect a strong showing from Kwankwaso in the SS region.

SOUTH WEST ZONE
While SW has been known to be a fluid region when it comes to national politics, I expect Tinubu to sweep the entire region (including OBJ's polling booth) with about 50% of the total votes there. APC can realistically score far more than my projection in the SW but I chose to go with the worst case scenario here.

It is actually funny and laughable that Obi's supporters expect that their candidate will clear 90% of the votes in SE and SS but expect Tinubu not to do same in the SW. The truth is, beyond the social media noise, Tinubu will coast home to victory in every state of the SW.

With further fractions in PDP in Oyo and Ekiti (where the state's EXCO of the party has recently been dissolved). APC's win is even more assured in the region.

Lagos remains the only state that Obi's supporters have significant presence and I expect that the LP will score around 25% of the votes there. Apart from Lagos state, I do not see Obi scoring beyond 15% of the votes in Oyo and possibly Ondo, with not more than 10% for their noise in Ogun and Osun.

I can see how much you love the APC. Your profile has said it all. But your analysis abi na prediction,will reverse itself next month. Weldone!

PassingShot:

Your eyes go clear very soon. Remain only 32 days.

this guy is a Mor0n. . 😂