Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts - Investment (6873)

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Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 12:47pm On Feb 15, 2023

yMcy56:
GTCO:
- Much volume here.... even though price didn't change as such.....
- Those that ran and crashed the price are coming back in.....
- Over 27M units transactions so far....

Meanwhile, Oga Emma is also now on the side of UNILEVER......he must have seen something positive there....

I have been buying it since November 2022, I sold about 3 years ago when the figures were not making sense

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by debeey87(m): 1:15pm On Feb 15, 2023

Calculated my total dividend yield last night and saw that the bond yield currently will give me 50% more yield if I put my total money in the bond market.

Even at that I am not able to decide whether to sell all my shares and move it to bonds for the greater yield grin

perhaps because of the ease with which I am able to cash out from my shares plus capital gains that has helped my portfolio grow in terms of capital appreciation.

I have even rebalanced my portfolio but it doesn't come close to what bonds will give even at 14%.
I'll like to hear opinions on what the best action will be. Steady cash flow is my investment objective for both short and long term

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by debeey87(m): 1:17pm On Feb 15, 2023

emmanuelewumi:

I compare the earnings with the free cash flow

Their cash flow is small from what their books say. The retained earnings is the only big thing there

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 1:50pm On Feb 15, 2023

debeey87:

Their cash flow is small from what their books say. The retained earnings is the only big thing there

Free cash flow of N11.7 billion, compared to operating profit of N8.6 billion and profit after tax of N6 billion.

Not forgetting the cash and cash equivalents of N68 billion at the end of 2022 financial year

Very good working capital with a current asset of N101 billion compared with a current liability of N50 billion.

I have a cash flow return on investment of about 18%, which I got by dividing the net operating cash flow of N12.5 billion by the capital employed of N72 billion and multiplying by 100.

Quick ratio of about 133% ie the cash and cash equivalent of N68 billion divided by the current liability of N51 billion .

EV/FCF is less than 1.CROIC ie Cash return on invested capital of about 130%

@ Current price, I don't believe these figures, can you assist me by digging deeper into this?

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 3:45pm On Feb 15, 2023

debeey87:
Calculated my total dividend yield last night and saw that the bond yield currently will give me 50% more yield if I put my total money in the bond market.

Even at that I am not able to decide whether to sell all my shares and move it to bonds for the greater yield perhaps because of the ease with which I am able to cash out from my shares plus capital gains that has helped my portfolio grow in terms of capital appreciation.

I have even rebalanced my portfolio but it doesn't come close to what bonds will give even at 14%.
I'll like to hear opinions on what the best action will be. Steady cash flow is my investment objective for both short and long term

Subtract your age from 120, whatever you get is the percentage of your portfolio that should be in equities the remaining should be in bonds.

Ideally bonds will have a better yield compared to your dividend, but your dividend will grow over the years.

A dividend yield after tax that is a discount of 33% to the yield on a 10 year bond is good enough provided you have considered other variables .

When you have a dividend yield that is equivalent to or higher than the yield on a 10 year bond, there is a very high probability that you have an undervalued stock and an upside potential of 50% and above is possible in the nearest future

8 Likes 4 Shares

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by currentprice: 5:23pm On Feb 15, 2023

emmanuelewumi:

Free cash flow of N11.7 billion, compared to operating profit of N8.6 billion and profit after tax of N6 billion.
Not forgetting the cash and cash equivalents of N68 billion at the end of 2022 financial year

Very good working capital with a current asset of N101 billion compared with a current liability of N50 billion.

I have a cash flow return on investment of about 18%, which I got by dividing the net operating cash flow of N12.5 billion by the capital employed of N72 billion and multiplying by 100.

Quick ratio of about 133% ie the cash and cash equivalent of N68 billion divided by the current liability of N51 billion .

EV/FCF is less than 1.CROIC ie Cash flow return on invested capital of about 130%

@ Current price, I don't believe these figures, can you assist me by digging deeper into this?

Boss you have done a great analysis of the oxygen here, I believe those figures.. my FCFE is N13.3B/ N2.3 per share. The company can conveniently pay half or more as dividend with no effect on the operation.

86% of cash generated was purely from the company's operation...plus for the company.
EV/EBITA of less than 1. thatz almost negative EV
yield on ebita of 123%
Next next Quarters will gives more insight on what to be expecting for the year. I will like to see improvement on the ROE 8.6% embarassed

food for those O_² investors.. _{^{same way ngxgroup lack some metrics but full of oxygen @ 16 and mkt push it up to N30...}}

6 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 5:46pm On Feb 15, 2023

currentprice:

Boss you have done a great analysis of the oxygen here, I believe those figures.. my FCFE is N13.3B/ N2.3 per share. The company can conveniently pay half or more as dividend with no effect on the operation.

86% of cash generated was purely from the company's operation...plus for the company.
EV/EBITA of less than 1. thatz almost negative EV
yield on ebita of 123%
Next next Quarters will gives more insight on what to be expecting for the year. I will like to see improvement on the ROE 8.6%

food for those O_² investors.. _{^{same way ngxgroup lack some metrics but full of oxygen @ 16 and mkt push it up to N30...}}

Could not believe the crazy figures I got, reason why I asked for a second opinion,

As a matter of fact, Dangote Sugar figures appear to be crazier and more unbelievable

3 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by debeey87(m): 6:15pm On Feb 15, 2023

emmanuelewumi:

Free cash flow of N11.7 billion, compared to operating profit of N8.6 billion and profit after tax of N6 billion.

Not forgetting the cash and cash equivalents of N68 billion at the end of 2022 financial year

Very good working capital with a current asset of N101 billion compared with a current liability of N50 billion.

I have a cash flow return on investment of about 18%, which I got by dividing the net operating cash flow of N12.5 billion by the capital employed of N72 billion and multiplying by 100.

Quick ratio of about 133% ie the cash and cash equivalent of N68 billion divided by the current liability of N51 billion .

EV/FCF is less than 1.CROIC ie Cash return on invested capital of about 130%

@ Current price, I don't believe these figures, can you assist me by digging deeper into this?

Thank you for the analysis. I was referring to Conoil I believe your analysis was on Unilever

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by currentprice: 6:22pm On Feb 15, 2023

emmanuelewumi:

Could not believe the crazy figures I got, reason why I asked for a second opinion,

As a matter of fact, Dangote Sugar figures appear to be crazier and more unbelievable

Agree Boss... all metric look cool for Dangote Sugar.. i cant wait to see the Audit report grin

DS generate 96% of it cash purely from operation ^{not interest from other investment, not from dividend, not from sales of invest or asset}

FCFE of 112b/9.2 pershare as at Q3
ROE 23%
EV of 33.8B vs Mkt capitalisation of 200B, EBITA of 57.7B as @ Q3 grin

I expect the stock to shake the mkt soon. currently selling at a discount in my opinion.

grin

3 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 6:23pm On Feb 15, 2023

debeey87:

Thank you for the analysis. I was referring to Conoil I believe your analysis was on Unilever

I analysed Unilever.

I have sold my Conoil shares so I don't have it again.

I hope the company now has oxygen and its earnings are now backed by cash, not what we used to experience in the past when dividends were paid almost a year after the financial year

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by juniorrate: 6:50pm On Feb 15, 2023

from this double button on monthly for Zenith bank plc, it likely to touch #27.40 for short-term target and sell area for Jijoist!! based on fundamental analysis, alot of financial institution should be making alot of profit with cashless economy which will push the bull to break the monthly high of #27.50 resistance

for long term holder - once u see #28 is broken on zee then #32 will be good area to sell and wait for price action

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Tohmey(m): 7:00pm On Feb 15, 2023

emmanuelewumi:

I analysed Unilever.

I have sold my Conoil shares so I don't have it again.

I hope the company now has oxygen and its earnings are now backed by cash, not what we used to experience in the past when dividends were paid almost a year after the financial year

Sir, how do you see UNILEVER,NESTLE, do it looks like good investement for long time holdings 3-5years

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by customstreet: 9:59pm On Feb 15, 2023

Conoil! Conoil!! Conoil!!!

INVESTMENT ADVICE

CONOIL

1. Current P|E Ratio = 4.02
2. Unaudited EPS = 898k
3. Current price range = 3500k-3800k plus
4. Average 9 years historical divided payout = 78%
5. Expected Dividend yield = 15.50% +
6. Holding period = 3.5 months
7. Target price = N55-N65

Recommendation: BUY

Apply your own Due Diligence

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by juniorrate: 11:15pm On Feb 15, 2023

From my own Technical Analysis, i cant buy Conoils with the current price of #35.25 based on the rising wedge pattern on a monthly timeframe and when we see such pattern in TA, it can signified a reversal is coming!! the two white line is the support where i can set my buy order and be averaging down incase of dip while the red lines is the resistance i can sell for short term holding

Note: DYOD before any trade and am not responsible for ur financial loss!!

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 3:37am On Feb 16, 2023

customstreet:
Conoil! Conoil!! Conoil!!!

INVESTMENT ADVICE

CONOIL

1. Current P|E Ratio = 4.02
2. Unaudited EPS = 898k
3. Current price range = 3500k-3800k plus
4. Average 9 years historical divided payout = 78%
5. Expected Dividend yield = 15.50% +
6. Holding period = 3.5 months
7. Target price = N55-N65

Recommendation: BUY

Apply your own Due Diligence

Very good, kindly assist with the working capital, cash flow statement analysis, cash position, ROIC, net debt, enterprise value, EV/FCF firm or EV/EBIT of Conoil..

5 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 10:31am On Feb 16, 2023

KEY TAKEAWAY FROM Mr. PRESIDENT'S SPEECH...

1) The old N200 note shall be released back into the system and WILL REMAIN legal tender until April 10, 2023 (an extension of 60 days from the previous termination date of Feb 10, 2023) as a way of helping to beef up surrounding liquidity in light of the current cash scarcity in Nigeria.
...it (the old N200 note) shall henceforth, run concurrently with the already released new redesigned notes of N200, N500 and N1,000 after which it shall cease to become a legal tender.

2) In line with item No 1) above, deposit money banks (all banks) have now been mandated to immediately release the N200 notes back into the system. In other words; they can now pay you with it and also accept it until April, 10, 2023.

2) Unlike the old N200 note, the old N500 and N1,000 are NO LONGER acceptable as legal tender having exceeded the deadline of Feb 10, 2023 for such funds to be returned to the banks. (though some persons still do return to their banks) wink

...by implication, you can only return the old N500 and N1,000 notes to the CBN using the CBN currency redesign CASH RETURN PORTAL (you can access it using this link; https://crs.cbn.gov.ng/)

Note however that the grace period to return to the CBN expires tomorrow, Friday Feb 17, 2023. (unless the date is further extended)

BOTTOM LINE:
In lay man's terms, the old N200 can now be used one small as the deadline has been extended to April 10, 2023... but NOT the old N500 and N1,000 notes.

Pls do well to be guided accordingly.

Truly, there was a country! ...the drama continues. wink

Regards

5 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by sophy17(m): 10:31am On Feb 16, 2023

customstreet:
Conoil! Conoil!! Conoil!!!

INVESTMENT ADVICE

CONOIL

1. Current P|E Ratio = 4.02
2. Unaudited EPS = 898k
3. Current price range = 3500k-3800k plus
4. Average 9 years historical divided payout = 78%
5. Expected Dividend yield = 15.50% +
6. Holding period = 3.5 months
7. Target price = N55-N65

Recommendation:

Apply your own Due Diligence

Simple and straight to the point. Kudos

The problem I have with Conoil is that it is illiquid. Volume is usually low.

2 Likes 1 Share

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 10:47am On Feb 16, 2023

customstreet:
Conoil! Conoil!! Conoil!!!

INVESTMENT ADVICE

CONOIL

1. Current P|E Ratio = 4.02
2. Unaudited EPS = 898k
3. Current price range = 3500k-3800k plus
4. Average 9 years historical divided payout = 78%
5. Expected Dividend yield = 15.50% +
6. Holding period = 3.5 months
7. Target price = N55-N65

Recommendation: BUY

Apply your own Due Diligence

Please, run a similar analysis on the aeroplane of WAPCO.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by onegentleguy: 12:26pm On Feb 16, 2023

FOLLOW UP REVIEW...

For those asking if this policy decision by the Fed. Govt will solve the present issues of cash squeeze experienced in the country?

Absolutely NOT!
Why so you may ask?

A brief...

Well, while it may bring about some measure of ease, its impact on the citizens vis-a-vis the business environment will only likely be a scratch on the surface. (can only make out a small positive impact)

Part of the reason is that the said currency denomination (the old N200 note) that has now been given further grace for use as legal tender, makes up a smaller proportion of the total approx 80% MS "chopped off" from the system, when compared to the other 2 redesigned denominations of N500 and N,1000 prior to the mop up of liquidity by the CBN.

A better or more impactful "balancing out effect" would've been created if further allowance or similar grace period were also extended to one of the higher denomination of N500 or N1,000.
That way, the ease in scarce system liquidity can be better felt in view of the already deep shortfall in money supply. (ref : @ >37% above requisite threshold)

This is especially true given the present extensive strain in the supply of the redesigned Naira notes (of N200, N500 and N1,000)... with supply-demand disequilibrium widened beyond acceptable levels.
Again, the expectant velocity of electronic transactional activities in view of the ∆ in external MS (off-banking system) has been losing momentum as the rate of execution continues to lag/cover up for the (expected) jump in surrounding needs, particularly in urban areas.

DMBs haven't been helping matters too... considering their level of indifference towards the clearly wide disconnect in meeting trade/business needs and the general plight of the masses.

Part of the Apex bank's objective for this whole exercise (currency redesign and cash withdrawal restriction) is to curb the recent wave of inflation... and I think they'll succeed on that, albeit in the near term.
So yes, I expect the INFLATION figure for the months of Feb, and quite possibly, March, 2023 to drop from previous guide (21.82% in Jan, 2023).

However, I also expect our GDP figures in Q1, 2023 to narrow down QoQ both in the comparable period of 2022 and it's trailing time-frame. (Q1, 2022 and Q4, 2022)

We may be "sacrificing a fertile chicken for the short time benefit that comes with having just some few eggs."
...only time will tell if this whole exercise/policy was indeed worthwhile!

I still maintain that this is a case of doing the right thing at the WRONG TIME... and to some extent, in the wrong way!

It is well.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by egwue: 1:03pm On Feb 16, 2023

My Seniors in this forum,
Thanks a lot for time you spend in sharing very useful information that has helped me and many others to understand the basics of the stock market. I am very grateful. I am still learning.
I need some guide/help from experts in this forum.
Will it be wise to invest in International Brewery shares at the current price? What are the prospects of the company in medium/long term?
Any advise will be highly appreciated.

Best Regards.

2 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pizapato(m): 4:05pm On Feb 16, 2023

UCAP result likely to be released tomorrow.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by dapix: 4:08pm On Feb 16, 2023

That is not possible, as the board meeting has not been held to deliberate on the report.
The report can only be released when the board meeting has been held, which has been scheduled for 24th of February, 2023:

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37331_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC%20_NOTICES_OF_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_%20_NO.pdf

pizapato:
UCAP result likely to be released tomorrow.

1 Like

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by pizapato(m): 6:51pm On Feb 16, 2023

dapix:
That is not possible, as the board meeting has not been held to deliberate on the report.
The report can only be released when the board meeting has been held, which has been scheduled for 24th of February, 2023:

https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/37331_UNITED_CAPITAL_PLC%20_NOTICES_OF_BOARD_MEETING_(BM)_%20_NO.pdf

Thanks

I was envisaging that they will stick to their pattern of releasing result on the 3rd Friday of February. It is obvious it will be the 4th Friday this year

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by dapix: 9:00pm On Feb 16, 2023

pizapato:

Thanks

I was envisaging that they will stick to their pattern of releasing result on the 3rd Friday of February. It is obvious it will be the 4th Friday this year

Even last year's report was not released on the 3 friday, but 2nd friday.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Rubyjade: 12:22am On Feb 17, 2023

My Mum has a business and she has many debtors running to hundreds of thousands.

She provides a kind of service that's run even after deadline for payment has passed, the client will still be using the service knowing fully well that they have passed their due date for payment. Even when you call/mail to inform them about the service has pass due dates, they will inform you the will pay and eventually they don't and still continue to use the services.

Kindly help with ways to collect these monies and reduce the debt of her company.

Thank you for your response anticipated response.

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by Ades1: 1:24am On Feb 17, 2023

dapix:

Even last year's report was not released on the 3 friday, but 2nd friday.

Was actually in the 3rd Friday. 18th February to be exact

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by iby2000: 4:42am On Feb 17, 2023

Una Good Morning.

Abeg inside Conoil, Unilever, Japaul Gold.. Which of these Stocks good to buy now?

The Dollar might crash in the next 4 or 5 months. If it does, The Price of Gold will increase

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by iby2000: 4:45am On Feb 17, 2023

Which best Stock broker in Nigeria for trading can anyone recommend.? I heard Morgan is okay.
I am really tired of this ARM stock broking firm.. 😒

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by ositadima1(m): 7:05am On Feb 17, 2023

Rubyjade:
My Mum has a business and she has many debtors running to hundreds of thousands.

She provides a kind of service that's run even after deadline for payment has passed, the client will still be using the service knowing fully well that they have passed their due date for payment. Even when you call/mail to inform them about the service has pass due dates, they will inform you the will pay and eventually they don't and still continue to use the services.

Kindly help with ways to collect these monies and reduce the debt of her company.

Thank you for your response anticipated response.

*If customers are delaying payments due to unsatisfactory service, your mother should: Assess and improve service quality.

*Payment terms could be revised or incentives offered for early payment to encourage timely payment.

*Establish clear consequences for late payment and follow through with them.

*Take a proactive approach to reducing company debt by: Improving invoicing and record-keeping systems.

*Following up with clients regularly to increase the likelihood of timely payment.

*Overall, it's important to identify the root cause of the issue and take steps to address it.

7 Likes

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by dapix: 8:21am On Feb 17, 2023

Try Meritrade by Meristem stockbrokers Ltd

iby2000:
Which best Stock broker in Nigeria for trading can anyone recommend.? I heard Morgan is okay.
I am really tired of this ARM stock broking firm.. 😒

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by essentialone(m): 8:34am On Feb 17, 2023

You have not invested anything until you buy the shares. And you have not made any profit until you sell those shares.

2023 Year of Surprises

*15 Best Performing Stocks in NGX YtD.* 🙄

How many of them are breathing well in your portfolio?

1. International Energy Insurance (+211.00%)
2. Tripple Gee & Co (+129.00%)
3. John Holt (+82.20%)
4. NNFM Plc (+74.00%)
5. MRS Oil Plc (+63.10%)
6. Geregu Power Plc (+46.10%)
7. ABC Transport (+40.00%)
8. Living Trust Mortgage Bank (+35.60%)
9. Thomas Wyatt (+34.00%)
10. Conoil Plc (+33.00%)
11. Chams Plc (+31.80%)
12. NAHCO Plc (+31.30%)
13. Redstarex (+22.60%)
14. Sunu Assurance (+20.70%)
15. Seplat Plc (+20.50%)

Re: Nigerian Stock Exchange Market Pick Alerts by emmanuelewumi(m): 8:56am On Feb 17, 2023

essentialone:
You have not invested anything until you buy the shares. And you have not made any profit until you sell those shares.

2023 Year of Surprises

*15 Best Performing Stocks in NGX YtD.* 🙄

How many of them are breathing well in your portfolio?

1. International Energy Insurance (+211.00%)
2. Tripple Gee & Co (+129.00%)
3. John Holt (+82.20%)
4. NNFM Plc (+74.00%)
5. MRS Oil Plc (+63.10%)
6. Geregu Power Plc (+46.10%)
7. ABC Transport (+40.00%)
8. Living Trust Mortgage Bank (+35.60%)
9. Thomas Wyatt (+34.00%)
10. Conoil Plc (+33.00%)
11. Chams Plc (+31.80%)
12. NAHCO Plc (+31.30%)
13. Redstarex (+22.60%)
14. Sunu Assurance (+20.70%)
15. Seplat Plc (+20.50%)

And how many of them justify their prices, how many can sustain their prices and how many of them can continue to grow their earnings back to back for the next 5 years.

Behind every stock, there is a business. Understand how the businesses behind the stocks are doing before buying the stocks, then you will be fine on the long run

11 Likes

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