seyisanya:
You passed the baton to the new set of investors that will hold the kaya for another decade at 20kobo!

seyisanya:
You passed the baton to the new set of investors that will hold the kaya for another decade at 20kobo!

Nigerialabalaba:
E dey simple Oga mi. Follow dis steps if u no wan type d name of d mods for end of message u wan report:
Lobatan.c'est finis

OBAGADAFFI:

seyisanya:
It is the same way @OBAGADAFFI dumped his millions of units with no gain. Dumping get levels.

Joking aside, something is cooking in that stock. The activities in that stock of late is a pointer to something positive in the near future.

yMcy56:

Well done sir.
I don dey note those posting against this stock in case of future reference.

One thing with Nsempa is that we always want magic and quick quick things...... One of the reasons some ogas stopped recommending stocks.
Immediately we noticed that someone or an entity was mopping, we expected the price to start jumping and deliver+100%, 200% or more sharp sharp, and... If it doesn't go according to expectations, we felt jittery. This type of stock is better picked with spare fund.
We will keep eye on it sha. ...

yMcy56:

Well done sir.
I don dey note those posting against this stock in case of future reference.

One thing with Nsempa is that we always want magic and quick quick things...... One of the reasons some ogas stopped recommending stocks.
Immediately we noticed that someone or an entity was mopping, we expected the price to start jumping and deliver+100%, 200% or more sharp sharp, and... If it doesn't go according to expectations, we felt jittery. This type of stock is better picked with spare fund.
We will keep eye on it sha.

This is NGX where unexpected do happens.....also, we can't win all every time.

E.g. NGXGROUP's fair value was predicted in 2021, it doesn't come to pass until 2023 Feb, some sold at loss, some jumped out thru the window, some others thru roof top of the bus, but what happened? It eventually delivered.
VITAFOAM was predicted to be N8 stock by @CP when it was trading @3.40 or thereabout, it took some years for it to manifest, thereafter, it was predicted to be 20 and worst case scenario to be N14, it didn't happen overnight.........UCAP, MTNN, etc.

Happy Vals Day.

emmanuelewumi:



You want to derail our thread again

seyisanya:
Aunty Mercy, see my second paragraph here ooo. On a more serious note, I have nothing against the stock. NSE is a market so there's something for everyone!

emmanuelewumi:




Before interest rates or inflation goes up, you would have known 3 months prior to the time if you are following happenings in the bond market.

That is why astute investors move their investments between the fixed income market and the stock market, while some have a certain percentage of their portfolio in fixed income investments.


Warren Buffett also twerked one of his mentors (Benjamin Graham) formula for estimating the intrinsic value of a growth stock, by including the current yield on a 10 year fixed income in the formula. He multiplied his fair value by the average yield on a 10 year bond and then divided it by the current yield

Because he found out that after all was said and done the current yield on fixed income investments affected the fair value of a stock. If the fair value should be discounted or he should add a premium to it.

About few months ago when Warren Buffett had about $100 billion war chest, where did you think the fund was invested before he started buying undervalued stocks in the bear market

There is also a reason why about 90% of Nigerian workers retirement funds are invested by fund managers in fixed income investments.

igbizen:

Baba don yarn…since I Dey follow Baba yearnings for this forum, my investment portfolio profit has increased to 49.50%.
Baba God bless you. Let me go and join the bond thread as well make I start too.

yMcy56:


...See the case of NAHCO. Some experts already saw the potential in NAHCO when it was trading @ circa N2 .......but quite a lot were pessimistic towards it due to immediate issues in the sector that time.
Even at N4, think I can remember calling Peter's attention to it, but he wouldn't touch it with a long pole self.... ........now many are just seeing it when it already delivered around +300%.
CP gave a fair price of N13......doesn't mean it will get there immediately.....but with more improvement, it's achievable.

juniorrate:


for unilever #10 is the best entry zone on support level, if u re speculating or jijoist u can exist if u see a breakdown below #9. #15.64 is the first resistance and sell area for jijoist and if it breakout on #16 a longterm holder can sell/exist at #25 and wait for next price action bcz there will be likely a pullback on that resistance

RabbiDoracle:


Something isn't right about these two stocks : PZ and Unilever. They have been slow for 3 years even when there was a boom in the sector due to inflation.

In my opinion, there could be a high likelihood of PZ touching N3.5 or lower. And that should be the last historical low.

essentialone:


PZ touching N3.5 or lower? That is a gbaas gboos something ooo. This aeroplane wey I enter so, hope I no go walk alone ooo.

emmanuelewumi:




Who is the custodian of your investment? Is it the bank or it appeared in your CSCS statement

machine606:

This one enter, I laughed out loud. Sir may you not walk alone!

It's like you are already pregnant here

debeey87:


On Conoil, I think CP or someone else highlighted it might get to 35 before the unaudited results was released. Seeing an EPS of 8naira and considering a payout ratio of 50% or more, at least 4naira dividend suppose drop if adenuga no de stingy this time

currentprice:


NAHCO may be next vitaform thing if there is no Covid again. Fv @ 13 could get better base on future performance +/-

conoil 35, CWG 2.4 , it will be very hard for the cwg to move to it fp with daily volume.

_{^{na my opinion o}}

onegentleguy:


A pivotal line of disclosure...

Over 2 yrs ago (btw Q2-Q3, 2019), We highlighted the worries in the company UNILEVER Nig Plc.
Before that time, I gave an underperform/sell rating given the coys near N30 market price.

Fast forward to Q1, 2020 and things only worsened for the company with inherent risk consistently taken a bite from what should've been due to an investor.
See 2 amongst the last post I put out back then. (Note the lines therein)

Within that period, risk was clearly ahead of the combination of REWARD and price with the continually pressured MoS resulting in the jettisoning of the stock by value investors. ...and unsurprisingly, the coys equity peg underperforming both it's sector and NGX index in the last 2 yrs.

What has changed?

Many of the major risk drivers highlighted then have been dwarfed by the company's present stance. (diminishing effect in view) ...with improvement recorded accross several key revenue and earnings line (at least by a 72% margin as certain triggers from core top-down and bottom-up positive line combines to good effect)

The present UNILEVER...

• Accelerating RM and OIM amidst drive to recover initially lost mkt share.
This is already working for the company!

• Healthier working capital stand on the back of higher ITP (ref: >> ∆ inventory turnover) and better performing receivables.
There's been a 64.9% YoY jump in consumer spend... with Nigerians parting with over N108 Trillion in 2021 alone despite inflationary pressure.
In retrospect, "tough times can't really be that tough" as passthrough impact from cost reflective challenges is minimized by higher comparative prices amidst increased consumer appetite.
A coy like UNILEVER now appears well placed to wither the storm given her broadly inelastic product mix.
Again, the decision of the Nig gov't to reopen the border should by implication, also greatly improve this line.

• Expanded reach in distributorship chain amidst in-company restructuring.
Expect lower CBR (ref: CRP) and higher CCC to JPBM in 2022.

• Back to back improvement (QoQ in view) in AsQ, ROCE, EM, AER, CGPR and AsY following deficits/squeeze in the previous 5 quarters.

• Improved value accretive stand at present compared to most sector peers in view of the current low base effect. (ref: NCPS, EV/EBITDA, JPBM)
...I also highlighted this same line while comparing WAPCO @ N9 and later, INTEBREW @ <N5 to their respective sector peers. (P2P weighting in view)

I see a similar pattern to fellow P2P coy, PZ.
Recall that we also gave a sell/underperform recommendation on PZ @ over N15 sometime in 2019... forecasting that price could drop to N4+.
Well, it did... and we later issued an outperform/buy signal @ that N4+.
PZ is currently trading @ N13+ and could rise even further.

UNILEVER can well follow the same path. ...the probability that its price can rise from current level is now closer to 1 than zero. (aside it's FA, certain KEY technical indicators are beginning to gather momentum)

With UNILEVER, potential REWARD has accelerated by an approx 2.7x multiple ahead of surrounding volatility/risk in view of it's CMP.

Using an appropriate blend of valuation model that assumes a minot growth margin of 0.15x TTM (5% QoQ to YE, 2022) but also benchmarked to risk-discounted levels of 500bps above current surrounding peg, UNILEVER' FVE computes to N29.15
This, by the way, implies a very conservative approach. ...that FVE can expand by well over 46% if a similar growth margin from Q1 is reproduced in Q2, 2022.

Rating now upgraded to; Overweight/Outperform

IT'S TIME TO INVEST IN UNILEVER!
BUY... ACCUMULATE... HOLD!

CAVEAT: The need for due diligence should still take higher precedence ahead of this post.

RabbiDoracle:


Something isn't right about these two stocks : PZ and Unilever. They have been slow for 3 years even when there was a boom in the sector due to inflation.

In my opinion, there could be a high likelihood of PZ touching N3.5 or lower. And that should be the last historical low.

onegentleguy:




But PZ rose from <N4 to N13+, printing an over 237% return in the process.
You'd recall when we put out a buy recommendation on the stock @ <N4 after previously forecasting that the price would drop from N15 to N4+

As I stated back then, a N4--5 target entry price should''ve been anybody's best bet.
It's always best to KEY IN when the price of a coy appears to be making a mockery of its inherent VALUE!
The stocks (PZ) circle of trough and crest appears to be "closing out", in line with the company's present dynamics.... so yes there's a favourable probability that the price could drop from current level.
That said, something might be brewing in that company.

N.B: PZ is one of the few names I highlighted as possible candidates for a buy out (ref: MTO, M&A)

As for UNILEVER, that coy ticks all the boxes of a buy candidate.
Already said as much before now. (see post above)
Price already up near 30% from recent low...
It's got all the potential to do much more!
Check well Nwenna.

Regards

onegentleguy:




But PZ rose from <N4 to N13+, printing an over 237% return in the process.
You'd recall when we put out a buy recommendation on the stock @ <N4 after previously forecasting that the price would drop from N15 to N4+

As I stated back then, a N4--5 target entry price should''ve been anybody's best bet.
It's always best to KEY IN when the price of a coy appears to be making a mockery of its inherent VALUE!
The stocks (PZ) circle of trough and crest appears to be "closing out", in line with the company's present dynamics.... so yes there's a favourable probability that the price could drop from current level.
That said, something might be brewing in that company.

N.B: PZ is one of the few names I highlighted as possible candidates for a buy out (ref: MTO, M&A)

As for UNILEVER, that coy ticks all the boxes of a buy candidate.
Already said as much before now. (see post above)
Price already up near 30% from recent low...
It's got all the potential to do much more!
Check well Nwenna.

Regards

ositadima1:


You discussed the previous state of the company UNILEVER Nig Plc, having given an underperform/sell rating.

Then in 2020 you saw improvements across several key revenue and earnings lines, including healthier working capital, an expanded reach in distributorship, and improvements in metrics like ROCE and AER etc.

Then predicted that UNILEVER's price could rise and suggested that potential reward had accelerated ahead of surrounding risk.

Then calculated a fair value estimate of N29.15 for the company.

I appreciate the detailed analysis you provide, which is much more informative than predictions without background information. However, I find it difficult to understand some of the undefined abbreviations in your post, as not everyone has an economics or MBA background. Nonetheless, I commend you and hope for more in-depth analyses in the future.

Regarding the fair value of the company, based on its 2022 fourth-quarter financials, I estimated it to be around 10. I used a few parameters like the profit for the year, equity, and outstanding shares for my calculation.

onegentleguy:


NPM... Net profit margin
CCC...Cash conversion circle
AER... Asset efficiency ratio... etc

I've highlighted the meaning and financial description/use case of these acronyms and more in time past.

Regards

ositadima1:


You discussed the previous state of the company UNILEVER Nig Plc, having given an underperform/sell rating.

Then predicted that UNILEVER's price could rise and suggested that potential reward had accelerated ahead of surrounding risk.

Then calculated a fair value estimate of N29.15 for the company.

I appreciate the detailed analysis you provide, which is much more informative than predictions without background information. However...

emmanuelewumi:



You did not include the free cash flow in your calculation, the growth rate in the late 3 years, forward looking growth for 2023. The current return on equity is about 10%, I see the return on equity growth to at least 25% in 2023.


As earlier said, I described Unilever as a recovery stock and when a stock fully recovers 100% and above is very possible.
The minimum EPS for the stock in 2023 is N2.50k, compared to N1.00 in 2022. This is a very conservative forecast oooo


Buying it at the current price or below and monitoring the stock for the next 12 months is not a bad idea

RabbiDoracle:


I may be wrong. But let's see what Mr Market does.

pluto09:


We need to see the next 2 quarterly financials of Unilever before we can say if they have really recovered.
I still cannot understand what they did in q4 2022 that resulted in that bogus profit considering the fact that the 1st three quarters presented a negative profit.

pluto09:


We need to see the next 2 quarterly financials of Unilever before we can say if they have really recovered.
I still cannot understand what they did in q4 2022 that resulted in that bogus profit considering the fact that the 1st three quarters presented a negative profit.

emmanuelewumi:



The earnings are cash backed, don't be surprised if Unilever declares a dividend of N1.00 per share for 2022

debeey87:


How do you tell if earnings are cash backed. Retained earnings or cash and bank balances