ogbs2020:
May and baker is down to day.

Trading at 3.9

Does markdown for 30k dividend count for anything in your TA?

Harvestock01:


Does markdown for 30k dividend count for anything in your TA?

The guy no understand wetin dividend mean

ogbs2020:
May and baker is down to day.

Trading at 3.9

lol.so you don't even know the reason. What a pro trader

Airtel is down .

Trading at 1,175

@ositadima1,

Thanks for the information. I want to learn. How did you calculate the fair value using the metrics in the table (Equity growth, ROE, PE, VPD ).

Thanks

ositadima1:
Here are some stocks, their fair values, and their divergence from fair value (VPD). I used 2022 reports as my source. PE was as of yesterday. You can see that I sorted them in order of rising PE.

Big boys are done with their moves, market going back to Golgotha mode

Abeg signify when to mop up...GT,MTN and the blue companies

aremso:
Big boys are done with their moves, market going back to Golgotha mode

MeezPat:
Abeg signify when to mop up...GT,MTN and the blue companies

Shappen your Cutlass towards September, I think the fear of FO made guys increased their stake unless FPIs are around I don't expect a sustainable bull

ogbs2020:
May and baker is down to day.

Trading at 3.9

That's good news to me... Abeg continue the update whenever the price drops

aremso:
Big boys are done with their moves, market going back to Golgotha mode

With the current level of volumes being traded, I doubt if the market would obey the "sell in May" adage.

Ardova on full offer/sale @22.

Where's that Oga asking if he can buy @24.20?
You would have been among those looking for exit door by now.......with no one to help you carry the kaya. Una like to dash big men money more than giving to the needy. Lol.

Those that offloaded their kaya @26, make Una take alms giving as well as giving to God's work very seriously. Some pple don't know the secret behind it. He has a way of rewarding you back.

Imagine buying something with exit price of 17.38 at 26?!

GreatEko:


With the current level of volumes being traded, I doubt if the market would obey the "sell in May" adage.

Lolllll. Can u see that tempo has reduced in the banking sector? The giration was cause by the big boys and influx of dividend hot money. U just dey enter NSE ? Anything is possible on our nse. Uba that was selling at 8.70 this morning currently selling @ 8.30. big boys are done with their things

kalkah:
@ositadima1,

Thanks for the information. I want to learn. How did you calculate the fair value using the metrics in the table (Equity growth, ROE, PE, VPD ).

Thanks

I used a very simple idea. If I owned a business, what minimum return would I expect to earn on my invested capital? One way to estimate this is to set the risk-free rate of return, such as the yield on treasury bills, as a floor (plus a premium for the business risk).

From the company's PAT, we can work our way back to what my capital should be hypothetically, and then I call this fair value because everyone else calls their estimates fair value.

Note that this is why I cannot make estimates when a company has negative PAT and I have only ratios and comparative analysis to fall on.

Also, there are very complex methods that use multiple inputs from the financials spanning several years, but I do not have the time or the will to stay in one place doing data entry when at the end of the day you will still need to estimate and project some values.

You can ask the Oga's to give you their more elaborate and probably more accurate method.

I guess talk plenty without answering your question.

Ades1:
That's good news to me... Abeg continue the update whenever the price drops

Lol.
He even thank Agba for his comment yesterday.

@ogbs2020 you still have a lot to learn o....maybe you have your reasons for posting sha.

Support 2.5. Cutlass?

Thanks ositadima1,

I actually like your response though did not answer my question.
I have read alot about complex methods of calclulating FV such as DCF models, DDM, GGM etc but all of them looks complex for my undertsanding. I saw your post and oga emma dicussion make it look simple. Hence, I want to learn the easy method from the ogas.

Moreso calculating FV involves a lot of subjective assumptions.

Thanks, I will continue my learning.

ositadima1:


I used a very simple idea. If I owned a business, what minimum return would I expect to earn on my invested capital? One way to estimate this is to set the risk-free rate of return, such as the yield on treasury bills, as a floor (plus a premium for the business risk).

From the company's PAT, we can work our way back to what my capital should be hypothetically, and then I call this fair value because everyone else calls their estimates fair value.

Note that this is why I cannot make estimates when a company has negative PAT and I have only ratios and comparative analysis to fall on.

Also, there are very complex methods that use multiple inputs from the financials spanning several years, but I do not have the time or the will to stay in one place doing data entry when at the end of the day you will still need to estimate and project some values.

You can ask the Oga's to give you their more elaborate and probably more accurate method.

I guess talk plenty without answering your question.

kalkah:
Thanks ositadima1,

I actually like your response though did not answer my question.
I have read alot about complex methods of calclulating FV such as DCF models, DDM, GGM etc but all of them looks complex for my undertsanding. I saw your post and oga emma dicussion make it look simple. Hence, I want to learn the easy method from the ogas.

Moreso calculating FV involves a lot of subjective assumptions.

Thanks, I will continue my learning.

To avoid assumptions that is why I look at a 5 year trend and use past performance as a yard stick in most cases you should be 70% accurate , while in most cases forward looking estimates are wrong 70% of the time

I really want to thank everyone for their input and heads-up. God increase your knowledge to bless us that have no knowledge so we can continue to make change here and there.
Honestly, it's been almost a year I started following and I see my little investments make tiny kobo that are cumulatively becoming naira.
I will continue to understudy so that I can make my own independent analysis and roll with big men and women raking thousands.
Thank you.

MysTeerioz:
I really want to thank everyone for their input and heads-up. God increase your knowledge to bless us that have no knowledge so we can continue to make change here and there.
Honestly, it's been almost a year I started following and I see my little investments make tiny kobo that are cumulatively becoming naira.
I will continue to understudy so that I can make my own independent analysis and roll with big men and women raking thousands.
Thank you.

@ raking thousands.


What can one buy with thousands in Nigeria, maybe you meant hundreds of thousands of Naira

Just thinking and cracking my brain on how to achieve 100 million annual dividend in the next 8 years so I can retire from daily hustling.

Streetinvestor2:
Just thinking and cracking my brain on how to achieve 100 million annual dividend in the next 8 years so I can retire from daily hustling.

I advise you work towards doing this in USD. Planning a retirement using Naira investments is uber risky

nosa2:


I advise you work towards doing this in USD. Planning a retirement using Naira investments is uber risky

Here we go again with dollar dollar talk.

Anyways, to achieve $140k in annual dividends in the next 8 years, you'll need to invest at least $2,000,000 after all the multiple fees

emmanuelewumi:



@ raking thousands.


What can one buy with thousands in Nigeria, maybe you meant hundreds of thousands of Naira

What I have is thousands. Little by little I would get to you people's stage of hundreds of thousands.

I think Caverton is ready for some relay race. First resistance at 1.3

Ades1:


Here we go again with dollar dollar talk.

Anyways, to achieve $140k in annual dividends in the next 8 years, you'll need to invest at least $2,000,000 after all the multiple fees

Right now Naira investments are so bad they're good. So for say like the next 5 years NSE is the place to be. BUT for retirement it is foolish to tie your future to the Nigerian madness

nosa2:


I advise you work towards doing this in USD. Planning a retirement using Naira investments is uber risky

Some won't understand! This was brought up over 8 years ago while USD was trading at about #158.

mendes911:


Some won't understand! This was brought up over 8 years ago while USD was trading at about #158.

It is not some but many. If your annual retirement income was N1,000,000 which was equivalent of USD5,000 5 years ago, the same N1,000,000 will be worth about USD1 500 today. You may claim that you do not spend USD or GBP in Nigeria and that's perfectly correct.

Harvestock01:


It is not some but many. If your annual retirement income was N1,000,000 which was equivalent of USD5,000 5 years ago, the same N1,000,000 will be worth about USD1 500 today. You may claim that you do not spend USD or GBP in Nigeria and that's perfectly correct.

For someone claiming that he/she doesn't spend USD or GBP in Nigeria shouldn't forget that the purchasing power of N1m 5 years ago is not the same now. Take for instance the price of condom which has almost tripled in Nigeria from 5 years ago till now.

Streetinvestor2:
Just thinking and cracking my brain on how to achieve 100 million annual dividend in the next 8 years so I can retire from daily hustling.

Meaning you will be in the top 0.1% of Nigerians, I doubt if we have up to 200,000 Nigerians who make that per annum as passive income. Not sure if upto 30 million Nigerians have a neworth of N50 million sef, and I doubt if 10 million Nigerians have such networth in highly liquid financial assets like bank accouns, money market funds, bonds, Eurobond funds, fixeds income funds and the stock market


About 5% of Nigerians play the stock market that is roughly 10 million Nigerians.


9 million of such Nigerians will have a portfolio of N5 million and below

800,000 will have a portfolio of between N5 million to N100 million

200,000 should have a portfolio of over N100 million.



Na guestimates oooooo, using CBN statistics concerning Nigerian bank customers who have a bank account balance of N500,000 and above .



If I may ask, why do you want to retire?


What will you do to keep yourself busy during retirement?


Have considered semi retirement or work optional, whereby you work at your own terms and pace for a maximum of 10 hours per week?


How far have you achievable as per your goal?


What percentage of your total income is passive?


I think if passive income currently gives you more than 50% of your total annual income, you can even retire now sef.




But don't ever run from your hustling, you only need to reduce it at retirement or you now hustle for fun and to be active but maybe because you need to hustle in order to pay bills

mendes911:


For someone claiming that he/she doesn't spend USD or GBP in Nigeria shouldn't forget that the purchasing power of N1m 5 years ago is not the same now. Take for instance the prices of condom and hookup rate which have almost tripled in Nigeria from 5 years ago till now.

That won't matter if your income grew tremendously in the last 5 years.

And all these constitutes less than 5% of your total expenses

emmanuelewumi:



That won't matter if your income grew tremendously in the last 5 years.

And all these constitutes less than 5% of your total expenses

How many investments in Nigeria have grown tremendously in the last 5 years? What's the exact growth for those that have made progress?

If you had N30m to purchase a commercial property 10 years ago and then you had the same opportunity to to have converted that same amount to USD (about USD190k) to purchase a commercial property in the US, which of them would have been a far better investment now?

mendes911:


How many investments in Nigeria have grown tremendously in the last 5 years? What's the exact growth for those that have made progress?

If you had N30m to purchase a commercial property 10 years ago and then you had the same opportunity to to have converted that same amount to USD (about USD190k) to purchase a commercial property in the US, which of them would have been a far better investment now?

Unfortunately this is not a d**k measuring contest.


Ideally as an investor if one can afford to own a business or businesses and also have investments the better, you have the ability to determine what you hope to make.


If your consumption is 40% or less of your total income, I think you are doing well


If your passive income grew by 100% and above in the last 5 years, you are also doing well.

If you have an emergency reserve that is equivalent to 50% of your annual expenses, you are also doing well.


If you have investments in at least 3 of the following assets ie stock market, money market instruments, bonds, Eurobond funds, commodities, real estate etc, you are doing well.


At any point in time, one investment or asset class will always do better than the others, that does make the other asset classes a bad investment vehicle


The aim to do be better and to do better