₦airaland Forum

yMcy56:
GEREGU @370!
CHAMS @1.92 full bid!
Shebi una don turn pointer to monkey hunting bah?
We go all dey alright las las.

** CHAMS is already high @CP IMO, anyone planning to buy should wait for pullback and result. Make you no go catch falling knife **

bennybuhari:
Oando...judgement favours minority shareholders

bennybuhari:
Oando...judgement favours minority shareholders

Locotrader:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39636_GUARANTY_TRUST_HOLDING_COMPANY_PLC-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

bennybuhari:
Oando...judgement favours minority shareholders

ositadima1:
For Dangote Sugar, I attempted to analyze it using simple statistics and some supply and demand logic. If you look at the histogram (covering 2022 to date) that I pasted below, you will see that the bulk of the volume is in the 12-23 range. This simply means that most of the stock was bought in this range. I hope you see the problem.

A price of 65 makes it a nice three-bagger for those who have been riding it since then. I agree that many are in it for the long term, but many are also in it for several other reasons, such as profit-taking, store of value, and temporary banking. Look at prices above 50. There is not much there in comparison. Breaking out of 70 may not be that easy, and 55 may still be possible.

Remember what someone influential said: "Na statistics we go chop."

vacanci:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39646_NIGERIAN_BREWERIES_PLC.-_QUARTER_3_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2023_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

yMcy56:
GEREGU @370!
CHAMS @1.92 full bid!
Shebi una don turn pointer to monkey hunting bah?
We go all dey alright las las.

** CHAMS is already high @CP IMO, anyone planning to buy should wait for pullback and result. Make you no go catch falling knife **

onegentleguy:
https://www.nairaland.com/1131485/nigerian-stock-exchange-market-pick/6979#123108469

Post release of the YE, 2021 financial print of DBMs, I did highlight that ACCESSCORP and to lesser degree ZENITH BANK were clearly not efficient enough at driving up earnings from the seemingly increasing funds at their disposal.
This informed our decision to attach a higher portfolio weighting to its direct peer, UBA ahead of ACCESS (>>GTCO ahead of ZENITH) and the preference for GTB, UBA, STANBIC IBTC, FIDELITY, FCMB and STERLING BANK as our top pick among the banking names from a value accretive standpoint.

Well, history has again proved us right.

Notice how the parts in italics have been playing out.
In one of my past post, I also mentioned that unlike UBA, ACCESS isn't putting enough risk mitigating measures in place to maximize earnings delivery in view of how the combination of the banks NIS, CoF, CoR, ROIC/ROCE, and CBR relates to her AsS/AsQ and AsY.

Sadly, even FIDELITY and FCMB have been more efficient than ACCESSCORP in the last 6 months (ref: H1, 2023 in view), with STERLING BANK trying to "rob shoulders" with her.

The bank performed sub-optimally both from an investment and loan driven stance.
The problem with ACCESSCORP isn't that they're not making money... It is that they're clearly not making enough in view of the banks asset size!
You cannot be delivering N1 from an X pool of asset when your peers are delivering N1.2--1.7 from a (2/3--3/4)X pool of asset. ...it's either something isn't right about the quality of your asset or your performance is below par. (inefficient)
...Management needs to do better!

We also cautioned against the euphoria that followed her juicy final yr dividend declaration. I always felt it was unsustainable... unless of course they can or have immediately set out to do certain things differently in H2, 2023. (at least 2 key things)

Fortunately though, the stock is still undervalued.
At Fridays close of N17.25, MoS from intrinsic value shows an approx 51.6% deviation, assuming a conservative valuation model that pegs a 5% QoQ GM in H2, 2023 and attaches a fairly appreciable risk premium.
...FVE @ N26.1
So those already in can HOLD! ...especially those who keyed in at the time we highlighted it's potential @ N9--10+.

CAVEAT: NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

onegentleguy:
Update...

ACCESSCORP may likely go on full bid tomorrow.
Her just released Q3 report should lend support to this.
Looks like magt have set out to work on one of the "2 Key things" I referenced above.

Haven't taken an in-depth look at their financial print but it does appear (from a cursory review) that their Nos looks quite promising.

It is well.

CAVEAT; Pls do well to read through my signature below.

BabsO2:
Crunch the numbers. I don't think the results will lead to full bid tomorrow. Will trade flat at best.

Mpeace:
Not rhat fantastic but an improvement on precious quarters.
They made in q3, as much profit as they made in q1 and q2 combined.
If they repeat same next quarter then you can expect good dividends since their profit would be more from operations than fx gains. Note that CBN directed banks not to finance dividends and operatuoms from fx gains.

BabsO2:
Crunch the numbers. I don't think the results will lead to full bid tomorrow. Will trade flat at best.

Locotrader:
https://doclib.ngxgroup.com/Financial_NewsDocs/39642_GUINNESS_NIG_PLC-_QUARTER_1_-_FINANCIAL_STATEMENT_FOR_2024_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS_OCTOBER_2023.pdf

BabsO2:
One should not take the Access Q3 profit numbers as cast in stone as they have not been challenged by auditors. Note also, the Access Q3 comprehensive income is negative.

GTCO didn't get a negative experience with Q3 comprehensive income and the market traded slightly down today. Perhaps the market is still digesting the numbers.

It's UBA that dropped seriously today that is worrisome.

onegentleguy:
Perhaps you need to dig deeper.

ACCESSCORP is a strong BUY.
Rating now revised to outperform. (previous: hold)

Today's close of N16.85 implies a 79.1% discount from intrinsic value... and that's assuming zero GM in Q4 and raking-off a risk premium equivalent to current surrounding level.
Conservative FVE @ approx N30.2... and believe it when I say that this is me trying to be generously conservative.

Infact I will advise those already in, particularly those who bought at the time we 1st highlighted the coy @ N9-10+ to be overprotective of their stakes.

Whether or not it goes on bid is of little or no consequence. ...it'll even be nice if it can drop in price tomorrow and the day after so the bargaining power of an investor can be much better. (>>MoS/RRM in view)

Again, HOLD!

CAVEAT: Still NOT to be inferred as any sought of recommendation. Due diligence still applies as always.

dapix:
Welcome back OGG,

What is your take on UCAP?

onegentleguy:
A lot will depend on your entry price and what trade-setup you had in place (plan) in view of your investment personality and objective.

If you've met your target, especially if you were among the early birds (ref: N2 to N6 entry) , you might want to reduce your stake by 40-50% and redirect the funds to another more value accretive asset. (we already highlighted some of them here)

I remember advising some folks (privately) to reduce their stake in UCAP and put the funds in UBA/ACCESS (60-40% portfolio weighting in favour of UBA), DS/NASCON, OANDO, WAPCO and CHAMS (still trading at the support/demand zone of 85-90k following the retracement from previous YtDH of N1.3+ at the time)... and I think they've been better off for it.

This is one of the reason I always refer to portfolio weighting with stock selection and fund allocation. The goal should always be to seek to earn more at any given time.

Even with fundamentally healthy coys you don't necessarily need to hold for too long, especially if the asset has achieved/delivered a great reward margin or where the gap between potential return and projected risk has reduced compared to other select healthy names. (ref: assets intrinsic value leaves less MoS compared to CMP)

You can always rebalance your portfolio by allocating some funds to assets that can do better.
UCAP is still trading at a slight deviation from intrinsic value. (ref: FVE @ 21.9) but any jack will agree that there are of course a few better choices right now.

Btw, there are rumors that there could be a potential bonus distribution for YE, 2023, hence my advice to sell only 40-50% of your holding. And depending on the asset price, I will look to exit the balance of 50-60% before or after their YE, 2023 report.
Like I always tell folks; A bonus issue is often a measure that replaces QUALITY with QUANTITY and until you can establish that that quantity is also of good quality, be cautious.
It's like a man who offers to gift you with 3 apples in exchange for the 2 you already have OR buying it off completely for a cash consideration. On the surface, the non-cash exchange might seem of more value, but It'll be better to let him buy it, if the 2 you had is of better/healthier quality than the offered 3. ...especially if there's a high plausibility that the said 3 could go bad in days. (near term view)
In fact, the wider the margin btw previous OS (quality) and post bonus OS (quantity), the more cautious you should be.

Disclosure: This is just me saying what I would've have done having a stake in UCAP.
NOT an investment advice. Due diligence still applies as always.

essentialone:
Will Chams still get to N3 ?

Streetinvestor2:
You get eyes.Nice results from chams.I see it as another ucapital of the future yrs.People sabi panic once they see red..I am beginning to think majority are seeing the market as gambling arena or want quick cash because of the economic situation presently in the country

yMcy56:
If someone can just buy this and forget it in the portfolio, it may end up paying off......to long termers/value investor especially.
Think this was also said when it was trading at circa 26/30k or so.

So also Transcorp.....

Streetinvestor2:
.I plan to do that.I will sell of my oil shares (total and con oil) transfer the money to cham/transcorp for like 5 -10 yrs horizon

yMcy56:
July 28 posts.

There's another one in that Tech Sector that has done so well and may very likely do well again.....in future or near future.........not talking about FA or TA alone now, if you're for both, just carry yourself commot for my post.