RabbiDoracle:

If there is negative div on the weekly, and there is none on the monthly, what does it translate to.
Conversely if there is negative div on the monthly and none on the weekly, what does it mean.
Can there be negative div on the yearly but none on the weekly and monthly? If yes, can one accurately predict a fall or rise using just one periodic indicator?

Always like your questions.
1) Charts or TA dont predict , its simply human behaviour in graphical form
2) All indicators derive their data from price and volume
3) Price and Volume shud move together abi, so if one is moving higher and the other is not in agreement , we hav a divergence. This tells us that there is a ''possibility'' that this move is not real oh.
4) Monthly charts are very slow so they show d long term, what the monthly sees , d weekly and daily are blind too
5) We give more respect to the longer time frame.

Your question:
a) If there is negative div on the weekly, and there is none on the monthly, what does it translate to.
Ans:
expect a '' strong possibility '' of a change in d ''medium'' term trend but the long term is not affected (u know those scary 30 - 50% pull backs ehn)

b) Conversely if there is negative div on the monthly and none on the weekly, what does it mean.
Ans:
the trend is gradually coming to an end, but the medium is neutral (respect the longer timeframe)

c) Can there be negative div on the yearly but none on the weekly and monthly? If yes, can one accurately predict a fall or rise using just one periodic indicator?
Ans:
There are no yearly charts
No one can predict fall or rise

Summary
a divergence is simply telling us that price & volume are not moving together like they did before on different time frames

Nice one.
I have so many past examples and all. If u spotted any, pls share

kolaish:
My investment strategy varies depending on the stock I am holding. It has favoured me at least 75%. Let me give you an insight:

I bought 1m units of Transcorp @ 143k two weeks ago = N1,430,000
sold yesterday @ 1.86 = N1,860,000 That means profit of N430,000 - N15,000 (txns charges). A gain of N415,000 is to me a good investment on the above. Mind you transcorp does not have good numbers supporting it and may/may not go down to the same price I bought it, but a bird in hand is more than 20 in the bush, my gain is already in my account. Mind you, I keep monitoring it again when it has bottomed out around 165k or less, that means I will be having 1,120,000 units rather than the 1m units I am holding before, Or I may decide not to buy again and buy another stock.

But for other stock in my portfolio like DF, I decided to leave it even when I saw it going down because I know their is nos to support it and it can still go up.

Please note that no strategy is perfect in the NSE, but experience sometimes, is the best teacher.

Well done , more to come

fxuser:


Always like your questions.
1) Charts or TA dont predict , its simply human behaviour in graphical form
2) All indicators derive their data from price and volume
3) Price and Volume shud move together abi, so if one is moving higher and the other is not in agreement , we hav a divergence. This tells us that there is a ''possibility'' that this move is not real oh.
4) Monthly charts are very slow so they show d long term, what the monthly sees , d weekly and daily are blind too
5) We give more respect to the longer time frame.

Your question:
a) If there is negative div on the weekly, and there is none on the monthly, what does it translate to.
Ans:
expect a '' strong possibility '' of a change in d ''medium'' term trend but the long term is not affected (u know those scary 30 - 50% pull backs ehn)

b) Conversely if there is negative div on the monthly and none on the weekly, what does it mean.
Ans:
the trend is gradually coming to an end, but the medium is neutral (respect the longer timeframe)

c) Can there be negative div on the yearly but none on the weekly and monthly? If yes, can one accurately predict a fall or rise using just one periodic indicator?
Ans:
There are no yearly charts
No one can predict fall or rise

Summary
a divergence is simply telling us that price & volume are not moving together like they did before on different time frames

Nice one.
I have so many past examples and all. If u spotted any, pls share

price and volume move together, what do you mean by that statement?

I know there are times when prices move so low and people pump money to buy more(higher volume). This isn't moving together.

There are also times that when prices are rising, people continue to buy more. Here prices go higher and volumes does too. I believe this is what you mean.

The third scenerio is when prices are up and people want to buy and bid higher, but the holders don't want to sell in anticipation that prices will continue to go higher. Hence anyone who buys usually buys a small volume because people don't want to sell.

So how do you see this on your chart?

Oando Shares Record High Sales Volume on Speculative Trading
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/01/06/oando-shares-record-high-sales-volume-speculative-trading/

Former Stock Exchange Director Ade Bajomo Joins Access Bank Board
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/01/06/former-stock-exchange-director-ade-bajomo-joins-access-bank-board/

RabbiDoracle:


price and volume move together, what do you mean by that statement?

I know there are times when prices move so low and people pump money to buy more(higher volume). This isn't moving together.

There are also times that when prices are rising, people continue to buy more. Here prices go higher and volumes does too. I believe this is what you mean.

The third scenerio is when prices are up and people want to buy and bid higher, but the holders don't want to sell in anticipation that prices will continue to go higher. Hence anyone who buys usually buys a small volume because people don't want to sell.

So how do you see this on your chart?

Summary if there is a heavy 'unusual' volume; expect a change in price either way depending on what your candle is showing you
I think volume usually leads
Abeg Fuxer come answer your calling o

fxuser:


Always like your questions.
1) Charts or [size=15pt]TA dont predict[/size] , its simply human behaviour in graphical form
2) All indicators derive their data from price and volume
3) Price and Volume shud move together abi, so if one is moving higher and the other is not in agreement , we hav a divergence. This tells us that there is a ''possibility'' that this move is not real oh.
4) Monthly charts are very slow so they show d long term, what the monthly sees , d weekly and daily are blind too
5) We give more respect to the longer time frame.

Your question:
a) If there is negative div on the weekly, and there is none on the monthly, what does it translate to.
Ans:
expect a '' strong possibility '' of a change in d ''medium'' term trend but the long term is not affected (u know those scary 30 - 50% pull backs ehn)

b) Conversely if there is negative div on the monthly and none on the weekly, what does it mean.
Ans:
the trend is gradually coming to an end, but the medium is neutral (respect the longer timeframe)

c) Can there be negative div on the yearly but none on the weekly and monthly? If yes, can one accurately predict a fall or rise using just one periodic indicator?
Ans:
There are no yearly charts
No one can predict fall or rise

Summary
a divergence is simply telling us that price & volume are not moving together like they did before on different time frames

Nice one.
I have so many past examples and all. If u spotted any, pls share

fxuser:
Fidelity
- some negative div on the weekly, price is making higher high , RSI is unable to keep up , making lower high
- [b][size=15pt]expect some slight pull back[/size] [/b]in days to come

To the part in bold, this is prediction based on the chart. Hence it does tells you something that makes you infer that the next move is this.

RabbiDoracle:


price and volume move together, what do you mean by that statement?

I know there are times when prices move so low and people pump money to buy more(higher volume). This isn't moving together.

There are also times that when prices are rising, people continue to buy more. Here prices go higher and volumes does too. I believe this is what you mean.

The third scenerio is when prices are up and people want to buy and bid higher, but the holders don't want to sell in anticipation that prices will continue to go higher. Hence anyone who buys usually buys a small volume because people don't want to sell.

So how do you see this on your chart?

...if I may take it from @fxuser - Let's use a simple analogy of a physical commodity, say Rice

-I know there are times when prices move so low and people pump money to buy more(higher volume). This isn't moving together.
If rice falls today, many consumers and retail traders will quickly buy more since they now see it cheaper than usual. Rice price and volume (buyers' participation are not moving together here).

-There are also times that when prices are rising, people continue to buy more. Here prices go higher and volumes does too. I believe this is what you mean.
What will happen along the line is that, major rice distributors will want to make more profits and gradually start increasing rice price, while volume may remain the same/or slightly increase as more buyers will be coming in for fear that the price will soon be out of reach.
As major rice distributors increases the price, buyers' participation start to decrease; it is now out-of-reach for certain people. Some people might want to try Tuwo or other similar products like rice

-The third scenerio is when prices are up and people want to buy and bid higher, but the holders don't want to sell in anticipation that prices will continue to go higher. Hence anyone who buys usually buys a small volume because people don't want to sell.
"If it is not Panadol, e no fit be like panadol" goes the popular advert. Many people now wants to eat the real rice, buy for festivals, ceremonies etc and ready to pay for current price. Major distributors saw this as opportunities to make more profits, so they keep increasing the price but alas ONLY FEW CAN AFFORD IT AND EVERYBODY IS SHOUTING THIS GOVERNMENT IS BAD.

This is also biting hard on the profit margin of the distributors (some listening govt can even intervene through some incentives), and so major rice distributors will then gradually start reducing the price while more people will be happy to stock their homes and shops with rice.

IT'S ALL ABOUT DEMAND AND SUPPLY

kolaish:
My investment strategy varies depending on the stock I am holding. It has favoured me at least 75%. Let me give you an insight:

I bought 1m units of Transcorp @ 143k two weeks ago = N1,430,000
sold yesterday @ 1.86 = N1,860,000 That means profit of N430,000 - N15,000 (txns charges). A gain of N415,000 is to me a good investment on the above. Mind you transcorp does not have good numbers supporting it and may/may not go down to the same price I bought it, but a bird in hand is more than 20 in the bush, my gain is already in my account. Mind you, I keep monitoring it again when it has bottomed out around 165k or less, that means I will be having 1,120,000 units rather than the 1m units I am holding before, Or I may decide not to buy again and buy another stock.

But for other stock in my portfolio like DF, I decided to leave it even when I saw it going down because I know their is nos to support it and it can still go up.

Please note that no strategy is perfect in the NSE, but experience sometimes, is the best teacher.

I like this

bigjay01:


Matric Yr?

2000

Cadillac15:


2000

Grandpikin
Oya dobale

Agbalowomeri:


Summary if there is a heavy 'unusual' volume; expect a change in price either way depending on what your candle is showing you
I think volume usually leads
Abeg Fuxer come answer your calling o

If there is unusual demand volume that surpasses supply, prices go high. Since people know that there is a strong bid, they will not supply volume and prices will keep rising with the little supplied. Hence price rises on little volume. Because people are holding back supply. Can't this be seen as divergence??

Conversely, If there is unusual supply volume that surpasses demand, prices go lower. Since people know that there is a strong supply, no one will want to buy so that they will see the limit of fall. Even if someone buys little to cause a maximum price fall for the day, the volume bought is small.can this be seen as divergence as well? As in where price movement doesn't correlate with volume movement.

Agbalowomeri:


Grandpikin
Oya dobale

You sef dey there.

I don dobale sir.

onegentleguy:


...And u probably forgot to mention the dogged prof. Amanduka, prof. Njoku, prof Nwokocha...

...might not be a very old exco but its realy been a while.
FUTO will input seriousness in u wheather u like it or not. ...don't know about now but it used to have so much Glory.

Btw, I once spotted sir Oracle chilling out with his babe at love garden. ...And later on their way home to Ihiagwa.

#TheSEETzone

And you too!!!

No wonder you dey dey serious in your analysis.

I be off camp guy....umuchima...close to Pentagon.

kolaish:
That is why we are traders via our online platform. I will never wait for a stock to take me down with it. The moment I buy a stock base on sentiment/probability, I usually monitor it every now and then. It has work for me in C & I, caverton, amongst others. Mind you, it is not compulsory I buy transcorp again, but my eyes are on it from monday (bid & offer). The most important is to know when to press the button for buy or sell. This strategy can give me 60% profit in 2 months while someone holding on will still remain at the same place

However, pls note that no strategy is perfect

Absolutely sir. The truth is everyone knows what he or she wants from the NSE. So there is no need waiting once you know you are ok with the percentage increase. We all have our different destinations, hence the different strategies. I agree with you sir.

RabbiDoracle:


If there is unusual demand volume that surpasses supply, prices go high. Since people know that there is a strong bid, they will not supply volume and prices will keep rising with the little supplied. Hence price rises on little volume. Because people are holding back supply. Can't this be seen as divergence??

Conversely, If there is unusual supply volume that surpasses demand, prices go lower. Since people know that there is a strong supply, no one will want to buy so that they will see the limit of fall. Even if someone buys little to cause a maximum price fall for the day, the volume bought is small.can this be seen as divergence as well? As in where price movement doesn't correlate with volume movement.

...you are correct that price rises on little supply. But this is not healthy, price will later falls. That is why you have some stocks creating gaps. If the volume is high and price is rising/falling it is healthy and usually the "romance" last longer.

BullBearMkt:

...if I may take it from @fxuser - Let's use a simple analogy of a physical commodity, say Rice

-I know there are times when prices move so low and people pump money to buy more(higher volume). This isn't moving together.
If rice falls today, many consumers and retail traders will quickly buy more since they now see it cheaper than usual. Rice price and volume (buyers' participation are not moving together here).

-There are also times that when prices are rising, people continue to buy more. Here prices go higher and volumes does too. I believe this is what you mean.
What will happen along the line is that, major rice distributors will want to make more profits and gradually start increasing rice price, while volume may remain the same/or slightly increase as more buyers will be coming in for fear that the price will soon be out of reach.
As major rice distributors increases the price, buyers' participation start to decrease; it is now out-of-reach for certain people. Some people might want to try Tuwo or other similar products like rice

-The third scenerio is when prices are up and people want to buy and bid higher, but the holders don't want to sell in anticipation that prices will continue to go higher. Hence anyone who buys usually buys a small volume because people don't want to sell.
"If it is not Panadol, e no fit be like panadol" goes the popular advert. Many people now wants to eat the real rice, buy for festivals, ceremonies etc and ready to pay for current price. Major distributors saw this as opportunities to make more profits, so they keep increasing the price but alas ONLY FEW CAN AFFORD IT AND EVERYBODY IS SHOUTING THIS GOVERNMENT IS BAD.

This is also biting hard on the profit margin of the distributors (some listening govt can even intervene through some incentives), and so major rice distributors will then gradually start reducing the price while more people will be happy to stock their homes and shops with rice.

IT'S ALL ABOUT DEMAND AND SUPPLY

I agree with you and FX sir.

But what I'm.asking is this:

If the price of a stock gains 10% but the volume that cause the gain is like 200,000 units. Let's say for a bank stock, what can you adduce to the reason for this.

(1) people don't want to sell but people are bidding higher. Hence those that sold, did so at the maximum price.
(2)price is about reversing based on the fact that volume sold is divergent with the price rise.
(3) all of the above.

RabbiDoracle:


If there is unusual demand volume that surpasses supply, prices go high. Since people know that there is a strong bid, they will not supply volume and prices will keep rising with the little supplied. Hence price rises on little volume. Because people are holding back supply. Can't this be seen as divergence??

Conversely, If there is unusual supply volume that surpasses demand, prices go lower. Since people know that there is a strong supply, no one will want to buy so that they will see the limit of fall. Even if someone buys little to cause a maximum price fall for the day, the volume bought is small.can this be seen as divergence as well? As in where price movement doesn't correlate with volume movement.

I think most of the indicators use moving averages over several days; so even if the current absolute volume has decreased it may still not register until it continues for several days and vice versa
Eventually if the price is high enough, you will agree that more people would be willing to sell; volume increases
If the price is low enough, more people will be willing to buy; volume increases

onegentleguy:


...And u probably forgot to mention the dogged prof. Amanduka, prof. Njoku, prof Nwokocha...

...might not be a very old exco but its realy been a while.
FUTO will input seriousness in u wheather u like it or not. ...don't know about now but it used to have so much Glory.

Btw, I once spotted sir Oracle chilling out with his babe at love garden. ...And later on their way home to Ihiagwa.

#TheSEETzone

After a brief stop over at bukah 5

BullBearMkt:

...you are correct that price rises on little supply. But this is not healthy, price will later falls. That is why you have some stocks creating gaps. If the volume is high and price is rising/falling it is healthy and usually the "romance" last longer.

What if the sellers are waiting to see strong demand that will surpass their supply,then they will start putting them out.

No be for Nigeria filling stations dey close so that there will be scarcity and prices will hit the roof, then they will start selling small small(low volume) at high prices for weeks before it will stabilise.

Agbalowomeri:


I think most of the indicators use moving averages over several days; so even if the current absolute volume has decreased it may still not register until it continues for several days and vice versa
Eventually if the price is high enough, you will agree that more people would be willing to sell; volume increases
If the price is low enough, more people will be willing to buy; volume increases

Gbam!!!

Agbalowomeri:


Grandpikin
Oya dobale

I don prostrate sir. I'm silent monitoring you and trying to learn your gut instincts. Has worked twice in a row now

yok:
MSCI- NIGERIA FUND ADDITIONS BETWEEN 2ND AND 4TH JANUARY 2018

The fun has not been very active since 22nd December 2018. Likely to resume from next week. Also since the fund paid dividend last January, this January 5, 2018 they are also likely to pay dividend again, so they have been selling some little amounts just to have cash for dividend.

The fun is still buying Seplat in small quantities. So no big move seen yet. So the information is sometimes embedded in my other posts. But if I see anything substantial, I will escalate it. We are waiting for the equities that will be used to replace Unilever and UACN which are no more in the list.

The movement in the fund between 2nd and 4th January 2018 is shown below. However, what I can say is that the fund is having enormous cash available (about NGN904,199,292.00).

The decision by the fund around July 2017, when they postponed investing further in Nigeria market, brought back the little bear season we experienced, now that the fund and its allies are now pro-Nigeria, we can imagine the bull move that will come to the market . Let us have this in mind. this is the reason why every news is so optimistic in the market. Our own job is to position ourselves to make money from the big moves by the funds and insha Allah good things will happen to investors who can put their money in good stocks.

Going further, the closing figures in the market today showed some blue chips among the gainers, extrapolating this, next week is likely to be bullish.

Caution: Investing is a risky venture. This is just my opinion and I cannot be liable for any loss suffered as a result of following this recommendation. All data used are assumed to be correct, but you may need to verify some of the figures independently. You can check data at https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/nge/ for the movement in the MSCI Nigeria fund

Men one mans meat is anothers poison,If you look @ most of our equity price in dollars,they are damn too cheap.....dem no near 50cent sef

All these FUTO ogas don leave engineering come dey practice investment.

Anyway Na investment engineering.

Oya, oga onegentleguy, let the cat out of the bag ooo...wetin the CFO of that bank talk.

Na one house.

Do you still have that FUTO attitude of not sharing ideas and exam materials so that only you will pass

RabbiDoracle:


I agree with you and FX sir.

But what I'm.asking is this:

If the price of a stock gains 10% but the volume that cause the gain is like 200,000 units. Let's say for a bank stock, what can you adduce to the reason for this.

(1) people don't want to sell but people are bidding higher. Hence those that sold, did so at the maximum price.
(2)price is about reversing based on the fact that volume sold is divergent with the price rise.
(3) all of the above.

In this scenario, it means institutional monies are not involved in such 10% rise and often caused by market markers to lure in what is called "dump monies" and they will later drag the price down temporarily to scare away dump monies on loss. By this time smart monies will buy at value before price rally again.
All the options are valid but not always the case.

When scarcity is caused, it possibly means good thing is about to happen to the stock, but when is the question

chukwuwike2ny:


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08067233120, 08111595550
Calls, WhatsApp

Please post this in the agric sectikn

RabbiDoracle:


What if the sellers are waiting to see strong demand that will surpass their supply,then they will start putting them out.

No be for Nigeria filling stations dey close so that there will be scarcity and prices will hit the roof, then they will start selling small small(low volume) at high prices for weeks before it will stabilise.

...interesting though. But it doesn't last. In our clime, it shows we are not Good Entrepreneurs but opportunists. In other countries, businesses rely more on volume (turnovers). I am always surprise that prices of goods fall during festive period elsewhere but whereas in Nigeria, price skyrocket during same festive periods.
That is why things do not work properly in Nigeria.

What should I buy ooo

RabbiDoracle:


Shhhh...bros, na tey tey man! Old school.

That was the number they used then before they changed it in 2000 I guess.

I left in 95 after 1yr ASUU delay

ukay2:
FMN....i will buy my right offer and apply and buy for more rights....

......waiting for my right circular released today in my p.o.box.....

.....who has gouting his FMN rights form.....oga emmanuelwumi....any info?


........We are making more money this year.........

For example, if you have 1000 units how many units is your rights to take ? .

bigass:
What should I buy ooo

Let's meet at that side; I get expo for u

Flour Mills Gets Regulatory Approval to Raise N40b via Rights Issue
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/01/06/flour-mills-gets-regulatory-approval-raise-n40b-via-rights-issue/

Banks to Handover 9mobile to New Buyer January 16
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/01/06/banks-handover-9mobile-new-buyer-january-16/

55 Stocks Lift NSE Index by 1.78% in First Trading Week of 2018
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/01/06/55-stocks-lift-nse-index-1-78-first-trading-week-2018/

Mass Telecom Innovation Plc Lists on NASD Trading Platform
https://www.businesspost.ng/2018/01/06/mass-telecom-innovation-plc-lists-nasd-trading-platform/

Agbalowomeri:


I think most of the indicators use moving averages over several days; so even if the current absolute volume has decreased it may still not register until it continues for several days and vice versa
Eventually if the price is high enough, you will agree that more people would be willing to sell; volume increases
If the price is low enough, more people will be willing to buy; volume increases

You just gave me the missing link to my over 2weeks research. Indeed volume precedes price. Thank you sir