currentprice:


22 will be more juicy but i doubt it as well.

with zenith cp fairprice. picking some at currentprice is not going to be bad idea. i think i will pend my plan of reentering mkt next month at Q1 result to pick some zenith 2morrow

It will get to 15, just wait.

longlife20:


It will get to 15, just wait.

Hello Chief
wld appr8 if u share what informed above, is it cos of current bear? or something rooted in fundamentals? or just gut feelings?

robobo:


Hello Chief
wld appr8 if u share what informed above, is it cos of current bear? or something rooted in fundamentals? or just gut feelings?

he is catching fun bro. thank God the post is not coming from mendes119 . pple could have put e-types on his neck and put fire

a stock with N56 fairprice for N28 @ 8.7 dividend yield wouldn't be a bad deal for some to hav.

mendes911:


Chief Oracle,

Good day ooo. How body?

Abeg e be like say my brokers don high. They sent me price list for today and I don't seem to understand. They must have sent price list of December 2017 to me.

Did Zenith Bank mark down prices today for the dividend? Even Fidelity is stated for N2.55. They do share-split today.

TrwStockbrokers are yet to update for today. I need to see accurate closing prices for today. Am not ready for this rubbish fake prices today!

I think Fidelity lost 26 kobo.

I believe people don see expo, hence the price movement.

Their result release date is 19th March 2018

gloriousdawn:
This market no get respect for report.
Report or no report, bear are everywhere.

We need prayer to drive away the bear.

Stockbuego are you sure?

Abeg result never show for there?

DeRuggedProf:
Where is Onegentleguy?

Caverton has taken him to the skye

onegentleguy:



Am very much around Sir !! ...though I've been a bit busy today.
Made a post yesterday concerning our brother Sir Chibuking and would've loved to make more, but the house was slightly hot then.
But I understand why u asked of me though.

Yes the market is down, but overall, we remain steadfast and unwavering in the coys we hold.
...for if one is domiciled in the house of FLOURMILLS, UACN, DANGOTE FLOUR, DANGOTE SUGAR, CAVERTON, CADBURY, CONOIL and UPL, then they should have peace of mind and continue to sip from a cup of warm tea.
...especially if their entry prices is at a very good enough margin of safety.
A majority of these coys (at least 80% of them) have also been holding out very strong relative to the market direction.



That said, we also believe that the current pull back would present another good measure of opportunity 'in the next circle of days'.
I have my eyes keenly glued on a couple of coys.
...for money will soon change hands from the fearful ones without strategies to the bold ones with a clear plan !!

Goodluck to us all !!

Welcome sir.
You are right.Most of our holdings are withstanding the current torrents of bears!
You have been wonderful in leading and assuring us
Three Gbosas to you Boss

currentprice:


he is catching fun bro. thank God the post is not coming from mendes119 . pple could have put e-types on his neck and put fire

a stock with N56 fairprice for N28 @ 8.7 dividend yield wouldn't be a bad deal for some to hav.

ok then i ws jst trying to be sure im not be blindsided

as for mendes i guess its only those who dont know what they are buying and reason for buying as well as a handle on their own emotions that wld be bothered by his banters though he also need to exercise some patience on his banters in other to avoid unnecessary battles so as to conserve his energy for possibles wars

BullBearMkt where a thou??/

currentprice:


22 will be more juicy but i doubt it as well.

with zenith cp fairprice. picking some at currentprice is not going to be bad idea. i think i will pend my plan of reentering mkt next month at Q1 result to pick some zenith 2morrow

Wait small na. The bear still dey o. E go chop your money o.

I believe that Stanbic stock is been manipulate.

full-bid with 50kobo dividend

I've heard some folks screaming that the few banks that have so far released their YE 2017 result only managed to grow their top line because of the earnings remittances from trading income. ...to them this would not be sustainable, and so they argue that they do not see the banks surpassing or even repeating the feat come 2018.
Well, I thought so myself too when the banks particularly those in the 1st teir category grew their top line majorly from fx related gains in 2016. ...for just like now, I was also among those who argued that the big banks may not be able to sustain those record earnings of 2016 going into 2017. ...but then, they just did.
Looking ahead of 2018, some persons now also have a similar doubt. ...understandably so but before we draw up conclusions, let's try and put a few things in perspective;

One of the major concern of those who doubt the sustainability of a fantastic result like that of ZENITH BANK going into 2018, is that they believe that loans to the real sector has had little or no effect to their growth in earnings. ...according to some, a situation where profit had increased by over 60% while loans and advances to the real sector had decreased by over the same margin is virtual and can not hold much water.
But then I ask, was there really any better option for the banks in 2017?. ...or put in a more specific light, would the banks have been able to grow their earnings if they had tour the path of lending to the real sector?
Pls we do not need to pretend. This is Nigeria. ...a country where our level of credit worthiness is near zero. A country with a very harsh business environment. ...where the ease of doing business has been trending downwards since the inception of this administration. ...and the last time I checked, a bank like ZENITH is also nigerian.
No one should blame the banks for taking advantage of a clear opputunity of low risk arbitrage from government securities.
...just like they did from mainly fx related gains in 2016. The banks are basically trying to be flexible with a view to bettering their margins.
Besides, the weak economic indicators of 2017 coupled with the reccession clearly didn't present them with any better choice with respect to decisions required to grow their top line.
As a bank, been competent would mean that they go for risk free govt securities at high interest ahead of any 'damn' loan with high risk and which would've only aggravated their already fragile NPL ratios. ...as there was even a higher chance of an increased loan default given the inflationary pressure and many struggles on the fiscal side of the economy as at the time.
Before anything else, the banks are in business and strictly so to make returns.

Going into 2018, my take is that the big banks particularly Zenith, Gtb and Access will most likely sustain their growth. ...and I have every reason to believe so looking at some of the core indices and the general economy at large. ...well at least for now.
Let's not also forget that there are several revenue streams for the banks. ...and interest income is just one of them.

In all, the overall performance from the management of a coy like ZENITH BANK shouldn't go without a good measure of commendation. ...for apart from the small matter of provisioning which I believe is an industry wide issue, the bank performed exceptionally well.
...Although I also have a slight concern with respect to the level of their disclosure.
However, an in-depth look at the 2017 YE result and that driven from their perfomance of 2016, gives less room for doubt going into 2018.
I was really impresed by the result, particularly the spike accross all major revenue lines.
I already stated it here that ZENITH BANK retains a BUY rating from my end. ...and at a good margin at that.
As at todays closure, I have a fair value that is at a nearly 51% discount from todays closing price of N28.75.
My fair price remains N43.

But then again, the market has its own way of thinking.

Disclosure: I currently do not hold Zenith in my portfolio. ...but I intend to do so in ernest.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely suggestive and is merely the opinion of Onegentleguy. ...and so It shouldn't be interpreted to mean any kind of recommendation.
DD still always advised pls.

onegentleguy:
I've heard some folks screaming that the few banks that have so far released their YE 2017 result only managed to grow their top line because of the earnings remittances from trading income. ...to them this would not be sustainable and so they argue that they do not see the banks surpassing or even repeating the feat come 2018.
Well, I thought so myself too when the banks particularly those in the 1st teir category grew their top line majorly from fx related earnings in 2016. ...for just like now, I was also among those who argued that the big banks may not be able to sustain those record earnings of 2016 going into 2017. ...but then, they just did.
Looking ahead of 2018, some persons now also have a similar doubt. ...understandably so but before we drive up conclusions, let's try and put a few things in perspective;

One of the major concern of those who doubt the sustainability of a fantastic result like that of ZENITH BANK going into 2018, is that they believe that loans to the real sector has had little or no effect to their growth in earnings. ...according to some, a situation where profit had increased by over 60% while loans and advances to the real sector had decreased by over the same margin is virtual and can not hold much water.
But then I ask, was there really any better option for the banks in 2017?. ...or put in a more specific light, would the banks have been able to grow their earnings if they had tour the path of lending to the real sector?
Pls we do not need to pretend. This is Nigeria. ...a country where our level of credit worthiness is near zero. A country with a very harsh business environment. ...where the ease of doing business has been treading downwards since the inception of this administration. ...and the last time I checked, a bank like ZENITH is also nigerian.
No one should blame the banks for taking advantage of a clear opputunity of low risk arbitrage from government securities. ...just like they did from mainly fx related gains in 2016. The banks were basically trying to be flexible with a view to better their margins.
Besides, the weak economic indicators of 2017 coupled with the reccession clearly shows that a bank like ZENITH and GTB took the best decisions there was to grow their top line.
As a bank, been competent would mean that they go for risk free govt securities at high interest ahead of any 'damn' loan with high risk and which would've only aggravated their already fragile NPL ratios. ...for there was even a higher chance of a loan default given the inflationary pressure and many struggles on the fiscal side of the economy in 2017.
Before anything else, the banks are in business and strictly so to make returns.

Going into 2018, my take is that the big banks will most likely sustain their growth. ...and I have every reason to believe so looking at the core single indices and the general economy at large. ...well at least for now.
Let's not also forget that there are several revenue streams for the banks. ...and interest income is just one of them.

In all, the overall performance from the management of a coy like ZENITH shouldn't go without a good measure of commendation. ...apart from the small matter of provisioning, which I believe is an industry wide issue, the bank performed exceptionally well.
...an in-depth look at the 2017 YE result and that driving from their perfomance of 2016, gives less room for doubt going into 2018.
I was really impresed by the result, particularly the spike accross all major revenue lines.
I already stated it here that ZENITH BANK retains a BUY rating from my end. ...and at a good margin at that.
As at todays closure, I have a fair value that is at a nearly 51% discount from todays closing price of N28.75.
My fair price remains N43.

But then again, the market has its own way of thinking.

Disclosure: I currently do not hold zenith in my portfolio. ...but I intend to do so in ernest.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely suggestive and is merely the opinion of Onegentleguy. ...It shouldn't be interpreted to mean any kind of recommendation.
DD still always advised pls.

Hello Chief

while i agree that banks have several income line, my take is that apart from the two mentioned above all others except interest income (risk asset) cant deliver exceptional growth as done by the two (i.e FX and TBills). at best they wld deliver some growth but it wld be largely benign. hence the only play i think could fit into the magnitude of FX and tbills growth of last two season is NPL unwounding and possibly tax assets.

That said where in your experienced view where do you think the next growth story is going to come from considering that the avenue for growth in last two years is currently being closed (FX and TBills).

wld appreciate yours and others (Rabbi/ Agba / Pluto / Emma/ Wanajo / CP e.t.c) insight / perspective

OBAGADAFFI:
I believe that Stanbic stock is been manipulate.

full-bid with 50kobo dividend

There is no manipulation is because of the number of shares, bulk of their shares is held by institutional investors who are not selling and their share is also few(10billion) compare to zenith which their share is above 31 billion and GT 29 Billion.

robobo:


Hello Chief

while i agree that banks have several income line, my take is that apart from the two mentioned above all others except interest income (risk asset) cant deliver exceptional growth as done by the two (i.e FX and TBills). at best they wld deliver some growth but it wld be largely benign. hence the only play i think could fit into the magnitude of FX and tbills growth of last two season is NPL unwounding and possibly tax assets.

That said where in your experienced view do you think the next growth story is going to come from considering that the avenue for growth in last two years is currently being closed (FX and TBills).

wld appreciate yours and others (Rabbi/ Agba / Pluto / Emma/ Wanajo / CP e.t.c) insight / perspective

Bros I don't know anything about banking and economics; I only analyse stocks, eps, dividend, pbv, roe
Dassol

longlife20:


There is no manipulation is because of the number of shares, bulk of their shares is held by institutional investors who are not selling and their share is also few(10billion) compare to zenith which their share is above 31 billion and GT 29 Billion.

Thanks

PZ release profit warning.

OBAGADAFFI:
I believe that Stanbic stock is been manipulate.

full-bid with 50kobo dividend

I concur. With just 10bn outstanding shares and a probably far less free float, manipulation would be very easy.
The stock is a very anomalous one.

onegentleguy:
I've heard some folks screaming that the few banks that have so far released their YE 2017 result only managed to grow their top line because of the earnings remittances from trading income. ...to them this would not be sustainable and so they argue that they do not see the banks surpassing or even repeating the feat come 2018.
Well, I thought so myself too when the banks particularly those in the 1st teir category grew their top line majorly from fx related earnings in 2016. ...for just like now, I was also among those who argued that the big banks may not be able to sustain those record earnings of 2016 going into 2017. ...but then, they just did.
Looking ahead of 2018, some persons now also have a similar doubt. ...understandably so but before we draw up conclusions, let's try and put a few things in perspective;

One of the major concern of those who doubt the sustainability of a fantastic result like that of ZENITH BANK going into 2018, is that they believe that loans to the real sector has had little or no effect to their growth in earnings. ...according to some, a situation where profit had increased by over 60% while loans and advances to the real sector had decreased by over the same margin is virtual and can not hold much water.
But then I ask, was there really any better option for the banks in 2017?. ...or put in a more specific light, would the banks have been able to grow their earnings if they had tour the path of lending to the real sector?
Pls we do not need to pretend. This is Nigeria. ...a country where our level of credit worthiness is near zero. A country with a very harsh business environment. ...where the ease of doing business has been treading downwards since the inception of this administration. ...and the last time I checked, a bank like ZENITH is also nigerian.
No one should blame the banks for taking advantage of a clear opputunity of low risk arbitrage from government securities.
...just like they did from mainly fx related gains in 2016. The banks are basically trying to be flexible with a view to bettering their margins.
Besides, the weak economic indicators of 2017 coupled with the reccession clearly didn't present them with any better choice with respect to decisions required to grow their top line.
As a bank, been competent would mean that they go for risk free govt securities at high interest ahead of any 'damn' loan with high risk and which would've only aggravated their already fragile NPL ratios. ...as there was even a higher chance of an increased loan default given the inflationary pressure and many struggles on the fiscal side of the economy as at the time.
Before anything else, the banks are in business and strictly so to make returns.

Going into 2018, my take is that the big banks will most likely sustain their growth. ...and I have every reason to believe so looking at some of the core indices and the general economy at large. ...well at least for now.
Let's not also forget that there are several revenue streams for the banks. ...and interest income is just one of them.

In all, the overall performance from the management of a coy like ZENITH BANK shouldn't go without a good measure of commendation. ...as apart from the small matter of provisioning which I believe is an industry wide issue, the bank performed exceptionally well.
...I also have a slight concern with respect to the level of their disclosure.
However, an in-depth look at the 2017 YE result and that driven from their perfomance of 2016, gives less room for doubt going into 2018.
I was really impresed by the result, particularly the spike accross all major revenue lines.
I already stated it here that ZENITH BANK retains a BUY rating from my end. ...and at a good margin at that.
As at todays closure, I have a fair value that is at a nearly 51% discount from todays closing price of N28.75.
My fair price remains N43.

But then again, the market has its own way of thinking.

Disclosure: I currently do not hold zenith in my portfolio. ...but I intend to do so in ernest.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely suggestive and is merely the opinion of Onegentleguy. ...It shouldn't be interpreted to mean any kind of recommendation.
DD still always advised pls.

I agree with you that banks like Zenith, GTB will not only sustain 2017 result, but will grow it going forward.
I say so for the following reasons:
1. I do not think impairment will be as high in 2018 as it was in 2017;
2. Mgt of these companies have a better perception and positive outlook for their business,
That is the reason dividend was increase;
3. The banks anticipated a low interast regime for 2018, and so will have make adequate arrangement to sustain income,
For example investing in long dated high yield bills in 2017.

My opinion.

I finally left this market with 6% hair cut.
Waiting for
Dangsuga @12
Dangflour @8
Oando @3
Zenith bank @13
First bank @6
Flourmill @18
Uba @6
Fidelity @1
Diamond bank @1
Ci leasing @1

The main bear with bear bear is on the way.
Be warned.


*Theoracle*

leo1234:
I finally left this market with 6% hair cut.
Waiting for
Dangsuga @12
Dangflour @8
Oando @3
Zenith bank @13
First bank @6
Flourmill @18
Uba @6
Fidelity @1
Diamond bank @1
Ci leasing @1

The main bear with bear bear is on the way.
Be warned.


*Theoracle*

You didnt leave the market when others left.Now we are planning to come back you are leaving with loss.I am sure you will miss our entry time again and join again when we will be leaving................

Deadlytruth:


I concur. With just 10bn outstanding shares and a probably far less free float, manipulation would be very easy.
The stock is a very anomalous one.

I remembered entering @ N15, immediately they were allowed to release results, the stock started flying.

I won't be surprised is this stock hit N100

leo1234:
I finally left this market with 6% hair cut.
Waiting for
Dangsuga @12
Dangflour @8
Oando @3
Zenith bank @13
First bank @6
Flourmill @18
Uba @6
Fidelity @1
Diamond bank @1
Ci leasing @1


The main bear with bear bear is on the way.
Be warned.


*Theoracle*

You will have to wait till next market crash which will be in the next 10 years or so, but u can loan me the money

locodemy:


You didnt leave the market when others left.Now we are planning to come back you are leaving with loss.I am sure you will miss our entry time again and join again when we will be leaving................

I did not lose any money.
I have withdrawn over 150% of my total investment in the NSE.
All I have left is part of my profits.

leo1234:
I finally left this market with 6% hair cut.
Waiting for
Dangsuga @12
Dangflour @8
Oando @3
Zenith bank @13
First bank @6
Flourmill @18
Uba @6
Fidelity @1
Diamond bank @1
Ci leasing @1

The main bear with bear bear is on the way.
Be warned.


*Theoracle*

leo1234:



I did not lose any money.
I have withdrawn over 150% of my total investment in the NSE.
All I have left is part of my profits.

My dear the part in bold from ur 1st post doesn't seem to be in agreement with the highlight in bold and by extension the entirety of ur 2nd post.
...Again u said u already left the market in ur 1st post. ...before turning around to also say u only have part of ur profit left in the market in the 2nd.
The make up of both post seem to be in sharp contrast, with the content therein leaving a lot of doubt both contextually and collectively.
Perhaps u need to read thru ur posts again.

As for ur target prices, I sincerely hope ur not seen things in reverse.
But I wish u goodluck all the same.

onegentleguy:



My dear the part in bold from ur 1st post doesn't seem to be in agreement with the highlight in bold and by extension the entirety of ur 2nd post.
...Again u said u already left the market in ur 1st post. ...before turning around to also say u only have part of ur profit left in the market in the 2nd.
The make up of both post seem to be in sharp contrast, with the content therein leaving a lot of doubt both contextually and collectively.
Perhaps u need to read thru ur posts again.

As for ur target prices, I sincerely hope ur not seen things in reverse.
But I wish u goodluck all the same.

Mind your sef. Stop catching pple anyhow. Don't you know that denial helps heal the pain, and is also part of the game? Let him continue to tell us, maka na anyi bu umuaka.

You better come back to market befor monday .

onegentleguy:



My dear the part in bold from ur 1st post doesn't seem to be in agreement with the highlight in bold and by extension the entirety of ur 2nd post.
...Again u said u already left the market in ur 1st post. ...before turning around to also say u only have part of ur profit left in the market in the 2nd.
The make up of both post seem to be in sharp contrast, with the content therein leaving a lot of doubt both contextually and collectively.
Perhaps u need to read thru ur posts again.

As for ur target prices, I sincerely hope ur not seen things in reverse.
But I wish u goodluck all the same.

Which aspect don't you understand?
I made 6% loss from my recent trade and the money used for the trade was part of my profits from previous trades excluding dividends.

longlife20:


There is no manipulation is because of the number of shares, bulk of their shares is held by institutional investors who are not selling and their share is also few(10billion) compare to zenith which their share is above 31 billion and GT 29 Billion.

Good point. Please can you or anyone else give me the ratio at which stanbic reconstructed their shares some years ago?