onegentleguy:
My Stock picks for an expected month of May/JUNE rally;

-JULIUS BERGER
- CAVERTON
-C&I LEASING
-AIICO INSURANCE
-FLOUR MILLS
-DANGOTE FLOUR
-DANGOTE SUGAR
-HONEYWELL FLOUR
-WEMA BANK
-FIDELITY
-FCMB
-ZENITH
-UBA
-DIAMOND BANK
-UPL
-11 PLC (...MOBIL)
-CONOIL and
-MAY & BAKER
-CCNN
-SEPLAT PETROLEUM

I believe that out of these 20 coys, 80% can give a 40-50% ROI, while nearly 40% of them should give a 75-90% average ROI.
Note however that this is purely based on their results, sentiment, effects from present underlying economic factors, and for a few, an expected input from some insider play (...the REVELATIONS).
My verdict: Just follow ur instinct.

DISCLAIMER: This still shouldn't be perceived as any kind of recommendation. ...DD still advised as always pls.

I wish us all a happy and fruitful month ahead.
...may it all be GREEN accross our various investments !!

Cheers.

NOTE: Just edited and added the last 2 of CCNN (...one of the best of the best YE & Q1 from these folks in recent years), and SEPLAT to the list.

sellydion:


Pally, why you forget or miss out the stock that is bound to deliver more than 100%

Why now. The transcorpians are not happy ooo

My sincere apology to all 'transcopians' here, but unfortunately that coy doesn't deserve to be in the list. ...at least for now.
Unless there is some positive insider revelation, TRANSCORP is a no no for us.
I hope u are aware of the planned sale of the group's Agro-allied business arm, TERAGO. (...located in Benue state).
The cowboys are probably planning to rub the shareholders of some stake like they did with TRANSCORP HOTELS.
However, this does not mean that money might not be made in TRANSCORP. ...It could but going by a few info I've received, I'd be very careful if I were an investor.
Trade it for the short term if u see a genuine need to do so, but don't invest with a mid to long term mindset.
...caution should be the watchword here.

That said, u remain the CEO of ur portfolio.
...and so this is not an investment advise. DD still advised as always pls.
My verdict: Just follow ur instinct.

Regards.

onegentleguy:


NOTE: Just edited and added the last 2 of CCNN (...one of the best of the best YE & Q1 from these folks in recent years), and SEPLAT to the list.

No Stanbic, gtb in ur list? They can do 40% too

Onuokwu:


Quite a few folks on here have commented about the Fidelity result. My observations as per yours cos it is the most detailed are as follows. Let me point out that this is not a critique of your opinion but riding on points you made

-Increase in Gross Earnings: Positive so no issues
-Increase in PAT: Suspect because retained earnings dropped if you look at the balance sheet. For banks retained earnings will drop in a profitable year when they are compelled to write off impaired loans not recognized as such in previous years. This charge is however direct to retained earnings and does not pass through the P/L. In my opinion, it raises questions about the integrity of their P/L seeing that the charge for 2017 and Q1 2018 does not reflect what i believe should be their range of impaired assets.
-Healthy cash position: Okay but why reduce dividend in a year where you made record profits and have good cash balance. At the least they should have matched 14k DPS of 2016 instead of dropping this by 21%. If they are retaining profits where really are they planning to invest this? Loan expansion? Dont think so. Pool money to service FX debts in exchange rate volatile environment? Maybe.
-Improvement in Loans and Advance: Good but note near linear relationship between loan growth and growth in bad loan porfolio.
-Drop in retained earnings have been explained before. It really should have no direct bearing on payment of dividend if a company is profitable. You will notice a marked departure from their dividend policy. They had stated in previous conference calls, and have practiced a dividend payout ratio of 30-50% of EPS. This year its less than 17%.

Something is not quite right and i think i have a fair guess of what it is all about. On the surface and looking on paper, this result seems good but i will watch this company more closely and listen in on the conference call.

The fair value? I prefer to guess that the market will not value this up to N3 in the next few months save a general bull like we saw earlier in the year. On the contrary, i suspect the price may loose ground marginally.

On the 1st part of ur post in bold, am also of the same opinion, but I also think it could be that they had to make for some added impairment following from the new CBN guideline on financial reporting.
On the 2nd part in bold, Yes I think that's the likely path they'll tour.
...I did give a brief on the deleveraging of their debt position as one of the positives in my initial post.
On the 3rd part in bold, Yes there may be a direct correlation of advancing loans to an increasing NPL, but for a 2nd tier bank like FIDELITY, its now a bit of 'arcadian choice'. ...they do not have much choice/options especially now that there seems to be more tightened channels of interest income. ...they're already feeling the heat in this regard.
On the 4th part in bold, I think that the CBNs last policy on dividend payout could've played a part on the 21% YoY reduction.
Don't forget that given the criterion for adherence, a bank like FIDELITY currently have a dividend payout ratio ceiling of 30%.
...which means that they can only pay anything within the range of 0-30% ...so while a near 17% payout is not fantastic, its also not entirely bad. It's above average.
To the last part in bold, well lets see how it goes.
I did mention in a past post here that there are chances the price may take a slight hit given the reduction in dividend payout.
...I however believe that any hit, if at all, will be very short-lived.

In all, having given a recourse to the likely impact from the negatives, my Fair Price still holds.
...we believe the positives in their result can well make up for any shortfall.
Like I said before, FIDELITY is now 'sexy' enough for me to adopt her as one of my 'concubine'.
But this is just me. ...So due delligence is still advised pls.

Cheers.

Mpeace:
No Stanbic, gtb in ur list? They can do 40% too

I have only put out the ones with much higher chances.
...with some of them, the upside target probability is even closer to 1.
However, due diligence is still advised as always pls.

Cheers.

locodemy:


11kobo dividend.
Result not even bad.
why waste all these time naw......?

Please what is the qualification date for closing the register of Fidelity ?
From the statement below no date was mentioned.

In respect of the 2017 financial year, the Board of Directors recommend a dividend of 11 kobo per
Ordinary Share of 50 kobo each amounting to N3.186 billion for approval at the Annual General
Meeting. If approved, dividend will be paid to Shareholders whose names appear on the Register of
Members. The proposed dividend is subject to Withholding Tax at the appropriate tax rate, which will
be deducted before payment.

BMZK:


Please what is the qualification date for closing the register of Fidelity ?
From the statement below no date was mentioned.

In respect of the 2017 financial year, the Board of Directors recommend a dividend of 11 kobo per
Ordinary Share of 50 kobo each amounting to N3.186 billion for approval at the Annual General
Meeting. If approved, dividend will be paid to Shareholders whose names appear on the Register of
Members. The proposed dividend is subject to Withholding Tax at the appropriate tax rate, which will
be deducted before payment.

Please find the link for details: http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/22141_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2018.pdf

BMZK:


Please what is the qualification date for closing the register of Fidelity ?
From the statement below no date was mentioned.

In respect of the 2017 financial year, the Board of Directors recommend a dividend of 11 kobo per
Ordinary Share of 50 kobo each amounting to N3.186 billion for approval at the Annual General
Meeting. If approved, dividend will be paid to Shareholders whose names appear on the Register of
Members. The proposed dividend is subject to Withholding Tax at the appropriate tax rate, which will
be deducted before payment.

2zona:

Please find the link for details: http://www.nse.com.ng/Financial_NewsDocs/22141_FIDELITY_BANK_PLC_CORPORATE_ACTIONS_APRIL_2018.pdf

Thanks, I went through the report but could not find the date. Please what is the page number where the closing date is mentioned ?

BMZK:


Thanks, I went through the report but could not find the date. Please what is the page number where the closing date is mentioned ?

Bro the link is for corporate actions and not for full report. The closing date on it is May 11.

2zona:

Bro the link is for corporate actions and not for full report. The closing date on it is May 11.

Thanks!!

cileasing will continue the job started on monday. u are too much undervalue

cc NoMoney

Fidelity pple ain't responding to the beautiful result. Lol. Like oando like fidelity.
#runsfromtread

12 noon will tell us the direction of the mkt

samzepaparazi:
12 noon will tell us the direction of the mkt

I have a feeling that the market has to go down before these bulls can come. This flat trading is going on for too long.

Mpeace:
Fidelity pple ain't responding to the beautiful result. Lol. Like oando like fidelity.
#runsfromtread

Dont be quick to judge

I think Fidelity result should/would give FCMB an edge in terms of price appreciation.

The market is just too dull. Think there is more to this than profit and dividend declarations.

currentprice:
cileasing will continue the job started on monday. u are too much undervalue

cc NoMoney

While your mouse pointer is blinklessly locked on your sale button/target...

Mcy56:
I think Fidelity result should/would give FCMB an edge in terms of price appreciation.

The market is just too dull. Think there is more to this than profit and dividend declarations.

I hope they (Fidelity) will not restate its 2017 profits come half year 2018.

mendes911:


I have a feeling that the market has to go down before these bulls can come. This flat trading is going on for too long.

if you are in the right stock, you need not fear.

RabbiDoracle:


if you are in the right stock, you need not fear.

I will save this comment. First time oracle made a "hope" comment, without being sarcastic.
One of the wonders of NSE

Seplat just declared excellent dividend. 0.05$ per share. Could be more than 15naira.Nice one.

RabbiDoracle:


if you are in the right stock , you need not fear.

You mean JB and Mobil?

And my post wasn't about fear. It's all about trying to maximize every given opportunity.

currentprice:
cileasing will continue the job started on monday. u are too much undervalue

cc NoMoney

currentprice:
cileasing will continue the job started on monday. u are too much undervalue

cc NoMoney

My Oga has succeeded in pushing this stock to full bid.

RabbiDoracle:


I hope they (Fidelity) will not restate its 2017 profits come half year 2018.

Why do you see this as a possibility?

Jejebaba:


My Oga has succeeded in pushing this stock to full bid.

cp like seriously undervalued stock

cc NoMoney

currentprice:


cp like seriously undervalued stock

cc NoMoney

Thanks for asking me to buy the stock, my avg CP is 1.34.

currentprice:

Individual bulls. No general bull this year. If you do well u get a bull.

Mpeace:
Individual bulls. No general bull this year. If you do well u get a bull.

Even NSEMPA self no get general bull, bearish since morning